Who is the Grey girl in Melisandre's fires?

[Rose of Red Lake]

6 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

The Vale gives Sansa a story platform of her own that can make her a real player

“I am stronger within the walls of Winterfell.” - Sansa Stark

The Vale is her prison; she was taken there under false pretenses against her will. Its not a place for her to find agency. 

The Starks are a wolf pack, and Jon isnt Littlefinger. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

9 hours ago, corbon said:

There are shifting visions, and we are told, and there are non shifting visions. There is no indication at all from Mel that this is a shifting or flickering vision. Everything about it except the end, where the girl dissolves into ash, seems clearly defined.

How can anything be clearly defined if we are blocked from seeing it it directly. Isnt it odd that we get many visions delivered in real time but this is the one that's told to us through other POVs or in flashbacks? The "three shifting Northern girls" (Alys, Jeyne, Sansa) fits this style of visions. The argument that visions are "straightforward" is hilarious when the author is working to make sure they arent easy or predictable for readers. 

[Mithras]

3 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

How can anything be clearly defined if we are blocked from seeing it it directly.

When Mel says she saw this girl on a dying horse "plain as day".

[a black swan]

22 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I think Mel might be seeing multiple shifting visions and thinks they are all one girl, so she sees Alys' face and maybe her horse shifting with Sansa's cloak and her (future) location near Long Lake. The visions where she sees Jon's face shifting with the head of a wolf seem to indicate that this is how the visions come out.

Sansa is a daughter of Ned Stark and of Winterfell and didn't have quite the same traumas as Jeyne did. I think she'll be able to navigate going North, probably with help from a sympathetic confidante. I agree with you in spirit at least that it should be Arya or Sansa. Such a crucial prophecy is wasted on a nobody, 3rd tier character like Alys Karstark whose house colors aren't even grey. It should be a main character, and a daughter of winterfell.

I don't think there is any indication that she is seeing shifting visions. If you compare this to the one with Jon, George adds clear markers where Mel sees the shifts:

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The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half- seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him." - Mel

Compare that to how she described her when she saw the girl in grey:

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She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away.

Rather simple and straightforward.

Plus, Mel keeps referring to Jon and his grey eyes and his long face...etc  Mel also refers to the girl as Jon's "little sister". Sansa neither looks like Jon & Arya and is never referred to as "little sister". 

 

 

 

[Colonel Green]

5 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

“I am stronger within the walls of Winterfell.” - Sansa Stark

The Vale is her prison; she was taken there under false pretenses against her will. Its not a place for her to find agency. 

The Starks are a wolf pack, and Jon isnt Littlefinger. 

The Vale is one of the most important uncommitted actors in the whole series, one that GRRM has set up as having major Stark allies in it, and he's plopped a main character who has heretofore lacked the ability to really influence events and be the heroine of her own story right in the middle of it, and somehow what you draw from this is that she's going to immediately run away to become a Jon supporting character?

She will go North eventually, but she'll go there as someone with a meaningful presence, not as a refugee.

GRRM deliberately separated all the Starks and put them in narratives that allow them to define their characters in isolation and grow in power and influence.  Sansa's no different in that regard.  Who said Jon was Littlefinger?  That doesn't change that, narratively, lone-refugee-on-a-dying-horse Sansa has no special role that would make her a player in the narrative on her own terms, she'd be in Jon's entourage.

[Dorian Martell's son]

22 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Like Mel can't be wrong multiple times? She would still be wrong if it was Sansa. 

These other girls just look like red herrings to throw readers off his plot intentions.

Sansa and Arya didn't show up at castle black 

[Rose of Red Lake]

2 hours ago, Mithras said:

When Mel says she saw this girl on a dying horse "plain as day".

So now people are arguing that Mel is right when 2 seconds ago they were arguing she's wrong. Like I said, visions are never straightforward even if Mel thinks they are. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

The Vale is one of the most important uncommitted actors in the whole series, one that GRRM has set up as having major Stark allies in it, and he's plopped a main character who has heretofore lacked the ability to really influence events and be the heroine of her own story right in the middle of it, and somehow what you draw from this is that she's going to immediately run away to become a Jon supporting character?

Why does the Starks reuniting mean that they'll all play second fiddle to Jon? The guy is going to be a resurrected mess. He's also an idiot who got himself killed. He needs his much smarter sisters more than they need him. Sansa is Northern, and she knows it. When Sansa says she is stronger in the Walls of Winterfell I take that literally - she's weaker at the Vale. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

GRRM deliberately separated all the Starks and put them in narratives that allow them to define their characters in isolation and grow in power and influence.  Sansa's no different in that regard. 

She has already been putting her magic at work in the Vale with Sweetrobin, to make him love her. She's also set up to do so again with the knights of the Vale through her tourney. She just needs to win the Vale's support to take back WF which is Littlefinger's goal. She's already 75% there. No need to stay much longer since its just a place for her to gain allyship. I see her leaving there very soon in Winds. She just has to be witty and charming, and make a few more knights fall for her. Three chapters, max. 

Also keep in mind the plot in the Vale is moving North, per Littlefingers plans.

[Dot Com]

27 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

He needs his much smarter sisters more than they need him.

Uh, what experience does Sansa have dealing with the Night's Watch, soldiers, logistics, the Free Folk etc? Jon is much more adept at that stuff than Sansa, and it's what the Northern plot hinges on. 

23 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Also keep in mind the plot in the Vale is moving North, per Littlefingers plans.

Plans that are laid out in their entirety for the reader have a tendency of going awry. 

[Colonel Green]

40 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Why does the Starks reuniting mean that they'll all play second fiddle to Jon? The guy is going to be a resurrected mess. He's also an idiot who got himself killed. He needs his much smarter sisters more than they need him.

No, you appear to be thinking of TV Jon.  Book Jon is a highly capable strategist and negotiator who has demonstrated statesmanship qualities far more than anyone else in the family (who in many cases have not had opportunities to do so yet, but that just shows how the narrative has concertedly advanced Jon ahead of his younger siblings in these areas).  He's the heir to Winterfell per Robb's likely-to-resurface-soon will, and he's the one who's been strong involved in all the happenings in the North.  Sansa would inevitably take a backseat in such a scenario (out of her own desire, in part; Sansa doesn't want to be a driving force, which is why GRRM keeps isolating her so that she's pushed against inclination to be her own hero).

33 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

She has already been putting her magic at work in the Vale with Sweetrobin, to make him love her. She's also set up to do so again with the knights of the Vale through her tourney. She just needs to win the Vale's support to take back WF which is Littlefinger's goal. She's already 75% there. No need to stay much longer since its just a place for her to gain allyship. I see her leaving there very soon in Winds. She just has to be witty and charming, and make a few more knights fall for her. Three chapters, max. 

Also keep in mind the plot in the Vale is moving North, per Littlefingers plans.

All of which would be incompatible with her being a lone girl on a dying horse.

Littlefinger plans on moving North eventually, not in three chapters.  Events are likely to play out differently than envisioned, but GRRM has set up a lot of different factors to play in the Vale, so I would not expect to see her bolting out of there so quickly.

[Rose of Red Lake]

52 minutes ago, Dot Com said:

Plans that are laid out in their entirety for the reader have a tendency of going awry. 

Exactly, that's why her running away from her marriage to go to the Wall comes in. Littlefinger would only be able to execute part of his plan which is going North, but not the rest.

ETA: he needs to lose his "bride" just like Ramsay lost his. He needs to experience that loss because he set the wheel in motion for Jeyne to be treated as she was. Killing him off too soon is too good of an ending for him; he needs to suffer more. 

52 minutes ago, Dot Com said:

Uh, what experience does Sansa have dealing with the Night's Watch, soldiers, logistics, the Free Folk etc? Jon is much more adept at that stuff than Sansa, and it's what the Northern plot hinges on. 

She knows how to win loyalty through charm and persuasion, something Jon has no idea how to do. The plot also seems to be setting up a way for Sansa to distribute food to starving Northerners since she's sitting on a gold mine of grain in the Vale. I don't know why Sansa's skills would be limited to one tiny region when she could gain influence over the Vale AND the North. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

45 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

No, you appear to be thinking of TV Jon.  Book Jon is a highly capable strategist and negotiator who has demonstrated statesmanship qualities far more than anyone else in the family (who in many cases have not had opportunities to do so yet, but that just shows how the narrative has concertedly advanced Jon ahead of his younger siblings in these areas).  He's the heir to Winterfell per Robb's likely-to-resurface-soon will, and he's the one who's been strong involved in all the happenings in the North.  Sansa would inevitably take a backseat in such a scenario (out of her own desire, in part; Sansa doesn't want to be a driving force, which is why GRRM keeps isolating her so that she's pushed against inclination to be her own hero).

Well I disagree with you there. A highly capable strategist and negotiator wouldn't lose his cool with Ramsay and also ignore the threat of mutiny. Arya could have told him in two seconds what his dangers were. He's dead now, just like his brother Robb and Ned while his sisters are surviving, so whose the smarter of the Starks? And like I mentioned in my other post, Jon has no idea how to use charm and courtesy to get what he wants. Sansa has him topped there. 

Sansa and Jon need each other actually; I dont know why Sansa has to be strong power fantasy woman in the Vale. I certainly hope GRRM avoids that tired trope. Sansa's power needs to rise in the North because again (something you keep ignoring) she says herself that she's stronger at Winterfell. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

58 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Littlefinger plans on moving North eventually, not in three chapters.  Events are likely to play out differently than envisioned, but GRRM has set up a lot of different factors to play in the Vale, so I would not expect to see her bolting out of there so quickly.

He's gotta wrap this thing up in two books lol

He can accelerate a plot if he wants. Even Littlefinger was surprised by how quickly his plans were moving (he says it outloud to Sansa). 

I really dont know what plots you think are so important there:

- Sansa gains influence over the Lord of the Vale (check)

- Sansa wins influence over Harry (done)

- Sansa wins influence over the Knights of the Vale to win back her birthright (basically already in progress but probably won't happen with a marriage to Harry like LF wants)

- Littlefinger hoarding grain in the middle of Winter--meanwhile Jon thinks, gosh wouldn't it be nice to get grain from the Vale???

All of this is focus and plot work in the Vale is for Sansa winning back her birthright, aka Winterfell. 

[Colonel Green]

34 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Exactly, that's why her running away from her marriage to go to the Wall comes in. Littlefinger would only be able to execute part of his plan which is going North, but not the rest. 

Littlefinger's plan not playing out exactly as laid out doesn't mean she's just going to run away and leave the whole region behind without having done anything.

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She knows how to win loyalty through charm and persuasion, something Jon has no idea how to do.

Jon who has bridged millennia-old divisions with the Free Folk, treated with Stannis, been praised as a sharp negotiator by the Iron Bank's envoy?  He's done far more to win loyalty and admiration than any of his siblings thus far.  Sansa hasn't yet won the loyalty of anyone.

What you're describing is a skillset that Sansa can be expected to develop, but hasn't yet, and won't if she just runs away from the Vale to hang out with Jon.

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The plot also seems to be setting up a way for Sansa to distribute food to starving Northerners since she's sitting on a gold mine of grain in the Vale. I don't know why Sansa's skills would be limited to one tiny region when she could gain influence over the Vale AND the North. 

Yet again, you're toggling back and forth between two opposite story ideas.  If Sansa has won power and influence in the Vale sufficient to be able to convince them to bring food, she would not be a lone girl on a dying horse.  She cannot simultaneously be the girl in the vision and be going north as a powerful figure.  Here you're actually making the case against your own position.

27 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

He's dead now, just like his brother Robb and Ned while his sisters are surviving, so whose the smarter of the Starks?

That's facile.  Neither of his sisters have ever been in a leadership position where they had to deal with issues like Jon has been handling.  Jon obviously made mistakes as Lord Commander, but he's also achieved far more than either of his sisters have on the leadership front.

8 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I really dont know what plots you think are so important there:

- Sansa gains influence over the Lord of the Vale (check)

- Sansa wins influence over Harry (done)

Neither of those things are "done" to anywhere near the extent that the (second) plot you're suggesting would require.  GRRM has set up a bunch of factions in the Vale, because Sansa's story is about learning mastery of court politics, which requires you to have a court for her to politick in.  She's only starting to learn to be an active agent, it's not going to be over in a handful of pages.  The culmination of all this will likely be her leveraging things to take down Littlefinger (which will also require her to decide she needs to do that) and steer the Vale in the direction she wants it to go.

[Rose of Red Lake]

5 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Littlefinger's plan not playing out exactly as laid out doesn't mean she's just going to run away and leave the whole region behind without having done anything.

 

"Without having done anything" okaaaay....have you not noticed that she's already got the Lord of the Vale and the Heir wrapped around her finger? By not actually playing arch political games like Cersei or Littlefinger but by simply being herself? It sounds like you're underestimating her skills. The tourney is a huge accomplishment in statecraft and subtle politics. Why belittle her skills like this?

8 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Neither of those things are "done" to anywhere near the extent that the (second) plot you're suggesting would require.  GRRM has set up a bunch of factions in the Vale, because Sansa's story is about learning mastery of court politics, which requires you to have a court for her to politick in.  She's only starting to learn to be an active agent, it's not going to be over in a handful of pages.  The culmination of all this will likely be her leveraging things to take down Littlefinger (which will also require her to decide she needs to do that) and steer the Vale in the direction she wants it to go.

I think we fundamentally disagree with what Sansa's story is about. I don't think she's set to be a typical game player like Cersei or Littlefinger or Tyrion in terms of that King's Landing style of court politics. She's set up as a person who gains power through adoration and love, not fear or political machinations. Some level of politicking is necessary but the reason why Cersei and Littlefinger fail is because they are ALL politics and forget about the human element. So I disagree with you that being an "active agent" requires having to learn even more politics in a Southern court--which by the way, she's already been doing in King's Landing. We have had thousands of pages of that. The stage for her agency taking place in the North is fitting since she's a daughter of Winterfell and knows that's where her strength comes from. She's already steering the Vale by simply taking care of Sweetrobin and dancing. Sansa gains agency by being herself, there's not much more she needs to "learn."

[Colonel Green]

EDIT.

[Colonel Green]

18 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

"Without having done anything" okaaaay....have you not noticed that she's already got the Lord of the Vale and the Heir wrapped around her finger? By not actually playing arch political games like Cersei or Littlefinger but by simply being herself? It sounds like you're underestimating her skills.

She was able, while following Littlefinger's instructions, to charm Harry the Heir somewhat.  That's a far cry from having him "wrapped around her finger" to the extent of being able to direct him to go to war for her.  You're considerably overselling the degree of advancement so far, and underselling how difficult it is to operate in politics.

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I think we fundamentally disagree with what Sansa's story is about. I don't think she's set to be a typical game player like Cersei or Littlefinger or Tyrion in terms of that King's Landing style of court politics.  She's set up as a person who gains power through adoration and love, not fear or political machinations. Some level of politicking is necessary but the reason why Cersei and Littlefinger fail is because they are ALL politics and forget about the human element.

That is just not how politics works.

I completely agree that Sansa's story has shown her understanding the benefits of being loved rather than feared -- that's a direct progression from her rejecting Cersei's nihilism in ACOK to her interactions with the Tyrells in ASOS and then her mentorship with Littlefinger, the latter two being very astute in image-shaping and the use of positive incentives.

But gaining (and maintaining, more importantly) power isn't a simplistic exercise where you just be yourself and people love you and do whatever you need them to do.  Ned Stark inspired love and loyalty, and he didn't succeed in the end.  And in any scenario where you're asking people to make enormous sacrifices on your behalf, they're instinctively going to be inclined to like you a bit less.  So she's got her work cut out for her.

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So I disagree with you that being an "active agent" requires having to learn even more politics in a Southern court--which by the way, she's already been doing in King's Landing. We have had thousands of pages of that.

We've had a few books of Sansa as an observer in King's Landing, where her perceptions changed considerably.  But she, by authorial design, had no opportunities to be an active political player there, nor was she especially well-situated to watch the sausage being made, which is what only really starts when she gets to the Vale and is mentored by Littlefinger.  It's under Littlefinger that she's starting to actively execute plans (like the tourney, which started as the germ of her idea).

And bringing this all back to the subject of this thread, which are you arguing:

1)  Sansa is the lone girl on a dying horse;

2)  Sansa will gain power in the Vale and use it to her advantage to help the North.

Because both of these cannot be true.

[Rose of Red Lake]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

Yet again, you're toggling back and forth between two opposite story ideas.  If Sansa has won power and influence in the Vale sufficient to be able to convince them to bring food, she would not be a lone girl on a dying horse.  She cannot simultaneously be the girl in the vision and be going north as a powerful figure.  Here you're actually making the case against your own position.

1 hour ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

 

That's a lack of imagination on your part. Sansa as the girl in the vision is only about her getting away from Littlefinger for a short time so that she doesn't have to go through with his plans of marriage. She can return to the Vale army on her own terms and with the backing of her family, and can take over by directing the grain and supply chains. Littlefinger's power is weakening anyway. Plus the characters in the Vale don't actually have to literally be in the Vale, for those interactions to take place. 

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

Sansa hasn't yet won the loyalty of anyone.

What you're describing is a skillset that Sansa can be expected to develop, but hasn't yet, and won't if she just runs away from the Vale to hang out with Jon.

Since you view Sansa's plot and existing talents as useless a waste of time so far I'm not really inclined to trust your opinion on the future plot. She's already won loyalties she's just not being flashy about it. You're missing a lot.

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

That's facile.  Neither of his sisters have ever been in a leadership position where they had to deal with issues like Jon has been handling.  Jon obviously made mistakes as Lord Commander, but he's also achieved far more than either of his sisters have on the leadership front.

1 hour ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

 

Yeah, because as a man he's been allowed to achieve that. But the women must try to to maneuver in a patriarchal society, under patriarchal constraints, by gaining agency for themselves. Jon has more choices and freedom than his sisters because of the social structure. But still, this isn't the oppression olympics. Sansa and Jon have talents that eachother lack. They would make a great team (Stark pack!). And, Sansa has achieved a lot, considering she's been a prisoner the whole time. I think being a prisoner is actually part of her education on what NOT to do and how NOT to act. Why do you think this amounts to nothing? The pattern so far has indicated that the flashier and more ambitious a leader is, the more likely they are to land flat on their face.

18 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

She was able, while following Littlefinger's instructions, to charm Harry the Heir somewhat.  That's a far cry from having him "wrapped around her finger" to the extent of being able to direct him to go to war for her.  You're considerably overselling the degree of advancement so far, and underselling how difficult it is to operate in politics.

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He grinned. "I will hold you to that promise, my lady. Until that day, may I wear your favor in the tourney?"

^^^^^ This is a WRAP. When a guy asks for a Lady's favor, it's done. 

"How difficult it is to operate in politics" isn't really the goal of her storyline like I said. Sansa has learned velvet glove techniques from the Tyrells - but the Tyrells are still trying too hard. Sansa gains power naturally, just by being herself. This is the culmination of her storyline. She gains loyalty simply by making people want to be better and achieve a higher ideal. It's really not Sansa that needs to learn all that much; it's the fools and bad people around her who need to learn. Littlefinger trying to tell her about the arts of persuasion is a joke; she already knows how to do that. 

[Dot Com]

DOUBLE POST