Who is the Grey girl in Melisandre's fires?

[sweetsunray]

On 5/6/2020 at 2:15 AM, corbon said:

Its another example of her false certitude. She's been certain of many things and been wrong about nearly all of them. Why would this be any different?

Has Mel ever had visions of the past? Have fire priests ever had visions of the past? It seems that Thoros's, Benerro's and Mel's visions in flames are always "future visions".

[LynnS]

18 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Has Mel ever had visions of the past? Have fire priests ever had visions of the past? It seems that Thoros's, Benerro's and Mel's visions in flames are always "future visions".

It would be a first.  I wonder how much these two are involved in the visions she receives:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I

The girl. I must find the girl again, the grey girl on the dying horse. Jon Snow would expect that of her, and soon. It would not be enough to say the girl was fleeing. He would want more, he would want the when and where, and she did not have that for him. She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away.

A face took shape within the hearth. Stannis? she thought, for just a moment … but no, these were not his features. A wooden face, corpse white. Was this the enemy? A thousand red eyes floated in the rising flames. He sees me. Beside him, a boy with a wolf's face threw back his head and howled.

The red priestess shuddered. Blood trickled down her thigh, black and smoking. The fire was inside her, an agony, an ecstasy, filling her, searing her, transforming her. Shimmers of heat traced patterns on her skin, insistent as a lover's hand. Strange voices called to her from days long past. "Melony," she heard a woman cry. A man's voice called, "Lot Seven." She was weeping, and her tears were flame. And still she drank it in.

 

 

[sweetsunray]

1 minute ago, LynnS said:

It would be a first.  I wonder how much these two are involved in the visions she receives:

 

They're watching (from the future) to her mistakes in the present (their past) and laugh at her.

[LynnS]

37 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

They're watching (from the future) to her mistakes in the present (their past) and laugh at her.

Maybe.  I think this is one of Bran's lessons.  It speaks to Bran's comment to Jon at the Skirling Pass:  "I'm not afraid anymore.  I can see them, but they can't see me."  Mel isn't able to see Bran except as the wolf boy or Bloodraven as a wooden face so they mock her.

She is looking for the enemy and sees Bran/Hodor:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I

Dawn. Another day is given us, R'hllor be praised. The terrors of the night recede. Melisandre had spent the night in her chair by the fire, as she often did. With Stannis gone, her bed saw little use. She had no time for sleep, with the weight of the world upon her shoulders. And she feared to dream. Sleep is a little death, dreams the whisperings of the Other, who would drag us all into his eternal night. She would sooner sit bathed in the ruddy glow of her red lord's blessed flames, her cheeks flushed by the wash of heat as if by a lover's kisses. Some nights she drowsed, but never for more than an hour. One day, Melisandre prayed, she would not sleep at all. One day she would be free of dreams. Melony, she thought. Lot Seven.

Devan fed fresh logs to the fire until the flames leapt up again, fierce and furious, driving the shadows back into the corners of the room, devouring all her unwanted dreams. The dark recedes again … for a little while. But beyond the Wall, the enemy grows stronger, and should he win the dawn will never come again. She wondered if it had been his face that she had seen, staring out at her from the flames. No. Surely not. His visage would be more frightening than that, cold and black and too terrible for any man to gaze upon and live. The wooden man she had glimpsed, though, and the boy with the wolf's face … they were his servants, surely … his champions, as Stannis was hers.

One of her limitations is that she can't penetrate the disguise when Bran is warged or skinchanges Hodor.  

She also sleeps and that makes her susceptible to dreams that are sent to her from the enemy.   Gazing into a fire for hours at a time probably induces an altered state of mind, akin to self-hypnosis, and a kind of dream state.

The fact that BR and Bran can break into her fire-side vision reminds me of the two way channel using glass candles. I think it's possible they can fiddle with her visions as well.  

But yes, we haven't seen it before with Thoros or any other fire mage. The most likely answer is that the girl in grey is Alys, except for the part where she turns to ashes and blows away.  That gives me pause.

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Maybe.  I think this is one of Bran's lessons.  It speaks to Bran's comment to Jon at the Skirling Pass:  "I'm not afraid anymore.  I can see them, but they can't see me."  Mel isn't able to see Bran except as the wolf boy or Bloodraven as a wooden face so they mock her.

She is looking for the enemy and sees Bran/Hodor:

One of her limitations is that she can't penetrate the disguise when see Bran when he is warged or skinchanges Hodor.  

She also sleeps and that makes her susceptible to dreams that are sent to her from the enemy.   Gazing into a fire for hours at a time probably induces an altered state of mind, akin to self-hypnosis, and a kind of dream state.

The fact that BR and Bran can break into her fire-side vision reminds me of the two way channel using glass candles. I think it's possible they can fiddle with her visions as well.

But yes, we haven't seen it before with Thoros or any other fire mage. The most likely answer is that the girl in grey is Alice, except for the part where she turns to ashes and blows away.  That gives me pause.

Well, I don't trust Mel's dualistic opinion on who is the enemy. I think they laugh at her for believing them the enemy. But I like your idea that these two can break into her fire-magic visions, and perhaps "fiddle" with it. Maybe they are the ones who attempt to blow away her vision of the grey girl, and for good cause.

Mel uses it to make Jon trust her visions and warnings. But ultimately it is this vision that she uses that ends up having the opposite effect. Once Alys turns up, he distrusts her foretelling so much that he avoids her as much as he can, even more than before, and actually has an argument to tell her: you were wrong before, so why would I believe you now. Maybe Bran and Bloodraven want to whipe out that image and prevent her from seeing it again, to help her and help Jon?

[LynnS]

21 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well, I don't trust Mel's dualistic opinion on who is the enemy. I think they laugh at her for believing them the enemy. But I like your idea that these two can break into her fire-magic visions, and perhaps "fiddle" with it. Maybe they are the ones who attempt to blow away her vision of the grey girl, and for good cause.

Mel uses it to make Jon trust her visions and warnings. But ultimately it is this vision that she uses that ends up having the opposite effect. Once Alys turns up, he distrusts her foretelling so much that he avoids her as much as he can, even more than before, and actually has an argument to tell her: you were wrong before, so why would I believe you now. Maybe Bran and Bloodraven want to whipe out that image and prevent her from seeing it again, to help her and help Jon?

Yes, she is completely untrustworthy and doing her best to manipulate Jon exactly as she did with Stannis.  She wants to control him and use him and so far Jon is not taking the bait.    She keeps offering a kind of partnership, but she has delusions of grandeur that tells me she is only concerned with her own power.  Stannis and Jon are means to that end. 

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I

While the boy was gone, Melisandre washed herself and changed her robes. Her sleeves were full of hidden pockets, and she checked them carefully as she did every morning to make certain all her powders were in place. Powders to turn fire green or blue or silver, powders to make a flame roar and hiss and leap up higher than a man is tall, powders to make smoke. A smoke for truth, a smoke for lust, a smoke for fear, and the thick black smoke that could kill a man outright. The red priestess armed herself with a pinch of each of them.

The carved chest that she had brought across the narrow sea was more than three-quarters empty now. And while Melisandre had the knowledge to make more powders, she lacked many rare ingredients. My spells should suffice. She was stronger at the Wall, stronger even than in Asshai. Her every word and gesture was more potent, and she could do things that she had never done before. Such shadows as I bring forth here will be terrible, and no creature of the dark will stand before them. With such sorceries at her command, she should soon have no more need of the feeble tricks of alchemists and pyromancers.

 

As to the real enemy; she has also referred to him as the soul of ice.  Not sure who or what that is at this point, but I suspect it was the Heart of Winter that Bran saw in his coma dream.  By that I mean that Bran has seen into the heart, soul and mind of the enemy.

Getting back to the grey girl; we don't know where fire mages get their visions. I suppose that BR and Bran could have fiddled the vision to throw dirt in her plans but I don't know why it would be relevant to give her a vision of Lyanna in the situation Jon finds himself.

[Springwatch]

5 hours ago, LynnS said:

 

Quote

[snip]

The red priestess shuddered. Blood trickled down her thigh, black and smoking. The fire was inside her, an agony, an ecstasy, filling her, searing her, transforming her. Shimmers of heat traced patterns on her skin, insistent as a lover's hand. Strange voices called to her from days long past. "Melony," she heard a woman cry. A man's voice called, "Lot Seven." She was weeping, and her tears were flame. And still she drank it in.

 

Is this to show 'Melony' as example of a past vision?

[Springwatch]

On 5/9/2020 at 9:46 PM, a black swan said:

The fact that Mel describes the girl as jon's sister and "little sister" - was that idea inspired/planted in her mind by the magic in the flames or her was it own bias? If it was the latter, what else was tainted by her bias? 

Not magic, inference only. "The girl", she said. "A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow's sister." Who else could it be?

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

Is this to show 'Melony' as example of a past vision?

It's more like a memory.  It also shows what kind of immediate affect BR and Bran have on her. I affects her physically.  That's what's so stunning to me.  She has no control, bleeds black blood and remembers herself in the slave market.  I think Melony, Lot Seven is also a recurring dream of hers.  

ETA: I'd just add that it's possible BR yanks the memory right out of her mind; possibly showing Bran Mel's origins and how she was made into what she is now.  It's also a demonstration of power.

[sweetsunray]

6 hours ago, LynnS said:

Yes, she is completely untrustworthy and doing her best to manipulate Jon exactly as she did with Stannis.  She wants to control him and use him and so far Jon is not taking the bait.    She keeps offering a kind of partnership, but she has delusions of grandeur that tells me she is only concerned with her own power.  Stannis and Jon are means to that end. 

Agreed.

6 hours ago, LynnS said:

As to the real enemy; she has also referred to him as the soul of ice.  Not sure who or what that is at this point, but I suspect it was the Heart of Winter that Bran saw in his coma dream.  By that I mean that Bran has seen into the heart, soul and mind of the enemy.

Agreed!

6 hours ago, LynnS said:

Getting back to the grey girl; we don't know where fire mages get their visions. I suppose that BR and Bran could have fiddled the vision to throw dirt in her plans but I don't know why it would be relevant to give her a vision of Lyanna in the situation Jon finds himself.

I don't think they gave her a vision of Lyanna. I think they made the vision of the grey girl fall apart to ashes and blew it away and since then prevented her from seeing it again, to prevent her from making the mistake she did: claim it was Arya, then turn out to be wrong, and thus as a result alienate Jon from her warning about assassination threat.

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, LynnS said:

It's more like a memory.  It also shows what kind of immediate affect BR and Bran have on her. I affects her physically.  That's what's so stunning to me.  She has no control, bleeds black blood and remembers herself in the slave market.  I think Melony, Lot Seven is also a recurring dream of hers.  

ETA: I'd just add that it's possible BR yanks the memory right out of her mind; possibly showing Bran Mel's origins and how she was made into what she is now.  It's also a demonstration of power.

It's an interesting idea. I have this impression though that the Old Gods don't do the agony and the ecstacy thing, and R'hllor does. I'm not exactly sure where the Others fit in, but I don't think they do the heights of pain and pleasure either. More like death by warm milk, or execution by Ned Stark on a bad day. So in this particular instance (Melony), I think she was still awake and staring in the fire.

[Springwatch]

On 5/10/2020 at 6:44 AM, rustythesmith said:

The reason GRRM says Melisandre is the most misunderstood character is because he wrote her to be misunderstood. His answer was akin to patting himself on the back in a way that is only identifiable to himself, reminiscent of the speech of Littlefinger and Varys. It's also a way of hiding the truth in plain sight, because he knows that the way people will interpret his words is not the way he means them. And that the common interpretation will drown out any other interpretations.

This, very much. It's not Mel's success rate that ruins her credibility with the readership, it's the fog of fakery surrounding her. She lies and bluffs. She substitutes chemistry for magic, not always with subtlety: the Lightbringer ceremony was laughable, especially when many know the 'true' story. The hymns and prayers are embarassingly awful (you are the fire in our loins, the night is full of terrors, thank you for the sun, thank for the stars). Being afraid of sleeping and the dark seems a foolish, childish thing. Her followers (Selyse and the Queen's men) are the most uncool people in Westeros, and Mel has turned them into murdering fanatics. The shadow babies are both disgusting and dishonourable, and the extra-marital sex she's having with Stannis seems to be draining his soul.

I don't think I've missed anything. All this is so repellent that it's near impossible to give Mel an unbiased evaluation. Her success rate is actually good. If Jon had thought more about how much she gets right, then he would have taken her warning and still be alive today.

(By the way - GRRM does something similar with Sansa. All those 'ever so's, and tummy flutters, and endlessly fussing with her hair and clothes, and the dreamy attitude. Annoying! Doesn't make her a bad person.)

On 5/10/2020 at 6:44 AM, rustythesmith said:

But in every case, only the first and original interpretation is valid.

It is? I'll certainly look out for it.

[kissdbyfire]

23 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Her success rate is actually good. If Jon had thought more about how much she gets right, then he would have taken her warning and still be alive today

I disagree. If Jon had taken Mel’s warnings to heart he’d spent time trying to figure out who among those he didn’t consider a threat would betray him, and he still wouldn’t have seen Marsh & co. coming. 

“Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side.

“You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?”
“I know their names.”
“Do not be so certain.” The ruby at Melisandre’s throat gleamed red. “It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold.”

I don’t think whatever Mel saw that she describes here has happened yet. Or she’s just full of it. 

For starters, we know it snowed a lot that day, but we’re never told they’re in the middle of a storm. Also, Jon is not “hard-pressed, with enemies on every side”. We also know Jon was not stabbed by men he thought his friends. And lastly, Mel says “it was very cold”, and yeah, it was cold, but not that cold.  And especially not for Mel, who likes to walk around as if the weather doesn’t affect her at all. 

So, IMO, she’s either dead wrong or this vision hasn’t come to pass yet. 

Oh, and Jon is still alive.

ETA: And I think Mel is “misunderstood” b/c she has her own agenda, and we don’t know what that is yet, so we don’t fully get her.

[divica]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I disagree. If Jon had taken Mel’s warnings to heart he’d spent time trying to figure out who among those he didn’t consider a threat would betray him, and he still wouldn’t have seen Marsh & co. coming. 

“Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side.

“You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?”
“I know their names.”
“Do not be so certain.” The ruby at Melisandre’s throat gleamed red. “It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold.”

I don’t think whatever Mel saw that she describes here has happened yet. Or she’s just full of it. 

For starters, we know it snowed a lot that day, but we’re never told they’re in the middle of a storm. Also, Jon is not “hard-pressed, with enemies on every side”. We also know Jon was not stabbed by men he thought his friends. And lastly, Mel says “it was very cold”, and yeah, it was cold, but not that cold.  And especially not for Mel, who likes to walk around as if the weather doesn’t affect her at all. 

So, IMO, she’s either dead wrong or this vision hasn’t come to pass yet. 

Oh, and Jon is still alive.

ETA: And I think Mel is “misunderstood” b/c she has her own agenda, and we don’t know what that is yet, so we don’t fully get her.

I think you are wrong. One of the problems with mel is separating what are her visions, what are representations in her visons and what are her interpretations of her visions.

From her pov jon was surounded by NW men, wildlings and queensmen and all of them ready to fight. It is normal that she thinks he is sorrunded. The storm part I think is a manner to say in the middle of the confusion.

And the ice, blood frozen and the cold is how jon feels at the end of adwd (and the reason he survives). Basically she saw daggers striking jon and his blood freezing into ice (he fel into the snow) and his body basically freezing. And despite not being a doctor, with all the knowledge I have about medieval settings I dont think anybody would die stabbed 4 times when his bloodloss is stoped and his heart rithm very slowed almost imediatly. Unless they hit something vital jon is alive and will stay that way for a long while. Given all the magic around him at the moment nobody knows what might happen next… (Although my pet theory at the moment is that farya will arrive and try to kill jon so that he doesn t unmask her. And ghost will probably kill her maiming face so that jon will be uncertain if he killed arya).

 

In regards to mel. Just like it leaves a bad taste that grrm made joff sudenly responsible by the attack on bran I don t think it is possible for him to make it believable that mel think stannis is AA. And even if she is playing him I don t see why… There is no reason for her to support the weakest pretender to the throne… Even if it was beacause of his targ blood she was okay with killing renly and not use him...

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Her success rate is actually good. If Jon had thought more about how much she gets right, then he would have taken her warning and still be alive today.

I think you mean her visions are pretty acurate. Her interpretation of them is actually pretty bad. It doesn t inspire trust… Like the arya/allys fiasco...

[kissdbyfire]

12 minutes ago, divica said:

I think you are wrong. One of the problems with mel is separating what are her visions, what are representations in her visons and what are her interpretations of her visions.

From her pov jon was surounded by NW men, wildlings and queensmen and all of them ready to fight. It is normal that she thinks he is sorrunded.

There are two aspects at play: what Mel sees and describes, and her interpretations. As you can see in the quote I provided, she is telling Jon what she saw: [Jon] hard-pressed, with enemies on every side”. I don’t think she’d describe a bunch of men from very different groups (NW, FF, QM) as all being Jon’s enemies and surrounding him from all sides. 

12 minutes ago, divica said:

The storm part I think is a manner to say in the middle of the confusion.

It’s possible.

12 minutes ago, divica said:

And the ice, blood frozen and the cold is how jon feels at the end of adwd (and the reason he survives). Basically she saw daggers striking jon and his blood freezing into ice (he fel into the snow) and his body basically freezing.

No, at the end of the quote, while she’s still describing the vision, she says, “it was very cold”. 

12 minutes ago, divica said:

And despite not being a doctor, with all the knowledge I have about medieval settings I dont think anybody would die stabbed 4 times when his bloodloss is stoped and his heart rithm very slowed almost imediatly. Unless they hit something vital jon is alive and will stay that way for a long while. Given all the magic around him at the moment nobody knows what might happen next… 

Yup, he’s not dead. We have endless descriptions of all that clothing: layers of woollen small clothes, mail, leather, etc. And the blades are described as knives and daggers, and those aren’t very long. I’m sure he’s injured, but not dead yet. 

What will happen is Morna, Val, Borroq. And Tormund, Leathers, Wun Wun, etc will deal w/ Marsh & co. 

 

12 minutes ago, divica said:

Although my pet theory at the moment is that farya will arrive and try to kill jon so that he doesn t unmask her. And ghost will probably kill her maiming face so that jon will be uncertain if he killed arya).

Sorry, but this sounds like total tinfoil. 

12 minutes ago, divica said:

In regards to mel. Just like it leaves a bad taste that grrm made joff sudenly responsible by the attack on bran I don t think it is possible for him to make it believable that mel think stannis is AA. And even if she is playing him I don t see why… There is no reason for her to support the weakest pretender to the throne… Even if it was beacause of his targ blood she was okay with killing renly and not use him...

She does believe it, but won’t keep believing for long.

12 minutes ago, divica said:

I think you mean her visions are pretty acurate. Her interpretation of them is actually pretty bad. It doesn t inspire trust… Like the arya/allys fiasco...

Agree.

[divica]

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

She does believe it, but won’t keep believing for long

She gave him a fake lightbringer… She consumes his fires… She is trying to persuade him to let HER wake some statues of dragons… I don t know how being the lord of dragonstone translates to being reborn amids salt and smoke...

Every action mel takes looks like she is trying to manipulate stannis and making other people believe he is AA. We have no reason to think she believes he is AA… He doesn t acomplish any of the things in the profecy...

And whatever she might gain from suporting stannis she would have gained much more if she suported either joff, renly or robb...

It is needed something briliant to explain mel's behaviour...

14 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Sorry, but this sounds like total tinfoil.

yeah, but if jon is alive he will be pretty weak by the time farya gets to the Wall. And given how she was treated in the south it makes sense that she will want to be arya stark intead of jeyne. Who knows what will happen to her if people find out she isn t arya? I think it is pretty likely that she will try and take advantage of the situation and deal with the only person who knows the truth… things are just fitting that scenario too well.

20 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, at the end of the quote, while she’s still describing the vision, she says, “it was very cold”. 

How can a vision be cold? She must be seing the efects of the weather on jon or feeling what he is feeling. In either scenario jon is freezing so she would think it was very cold.

21 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

There are two aspects at play: what Mel sees and describes, and her interpretations. As you can see in the quote I provided, she is telling Jon what she saw: [Jon] hard-pressed, with enemies on every side”. I don’t think she’d describe a bunch of men from very different groups (NW, FF, QM) as all being Jon’s enemies and surrounding him from all sides. 

But with the attack on wun wun the situation was a mess. And then with some members of the NW attacking him it would become even messier. From the outside it would look that jon is surrounded by enemies all ready to start fighting. It isn t like jon has a group of people that are clearly his allies in that scene… 

 

[kissdbyfire]

19 minutes ago, divica said:

She gave him a fake lightbringer… She consumes his fires… She is trying to persuade him to let HER wake some statues of dragons… I don t know how being the lord of dragonstone translates to being reborn amids salt and smoke...

Every action mel takes looks like she is trying to manipulate stannis and making other people believe he is AA. We have no reason to think she believes he is AA… He doesn t acomplish any of the things in the profecy...

And whatever she might gain from suporting stannis she would have gained much more if she suported either joff, renly or robb...

We know she believes Stannis is AAR because we are in her head when she thinks about it. 

“The red priestess closed her eyes and said a prayer, then opened them once more to face the hearthfire. One more time. She had to be certain. Many a priest and priestess before her had been brought down by false visions, by seeing what they wished to see instead of what the Lord of Light had sent. Stannis was marching south into peril, the king who carried the fate of the world upon his shoulders, Azor Ahai reborn. Surely R’hllor would vouchsafe her a glimpse of what awaited him. Show me Stannis, Lord, she prayed. Show me your king, your instrument.”

 

Quote

yeah, but if jon is alive he will be pretty weak by the time farya gets to the Wall. And given how she was treated in the south it makes sense that she will want to be arya stark intead of jeyne. Who knows what will happen to her if people find out she isn t arya? I think it is pretty likely that she will try and take advantage of the situation and deal with the only person who knows the truth… things are just fitting that scenario too well.

Nope, I really don’t see it. 

Quote

How can a vision be cold? She must be seing the efects of the weather on jon or feeling what he is feeling. In either scenario jon is freezing so she would think it was very cold.

Obviously the vision itself isn’t “cold”, but one can assess things like the weather based on what they see. 

Quote

But with the attack on wun wun the situation was a mess. And then with some members of the NW attacking him it would become even messier. From the outside it would look that jon is surrounded by enemies all ready to start fighting. It isn t like jon has a group of people that are clearly his allies in that scene… 

You think? I disagree.

[divica]

6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

We know she believes Stannis is AAR because we are in her head when she thinks about it. 

“The red priestess closed her eyes and said a prayer, then opened them once more to face the hearthfire. One more time. She had to be certain. Many a priest and priestess before her had been brought down by false visions, by seeing what they wished to see instead of what the Lord of Light had sent. Stannis was marching south into peril, the king who carried the fate of the world upon his shoulders, Azor Ahai reborn. Surely R’hllor would vouchsafe her a glimpse of what awaited him. Show me Stannis, Lord, she prayed. Show me your king, your instrument.”

Ok, good catch. But as I pointed earlier it is batshit crazy that she believes this. He hasn t done anything to fulfill the profecy and she is the one actually faking elements of the profecy.

8 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Obviously the vision itself isn’t “cold”, but one can assess things like the weather based on what they see. 

And if she see jon's freezing she would say it is pretty cold. And jon was pretty cold at the end of the chapter.

Basically you are thinking she is seeing the weather in her vision. I am saying she is seeing how the weather affected jon. It doesn t matter if the weather was the coldest ever, but that jon felt very cold at that moment. If mel saw jon she would think it was very cold.

11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

You think? I disagree

who were his allies? Jon just arrived with 1 or 2 people at ascene that is a mess with everybody ready to start a fight. I think it makes sense that mel misinterpreted what she saw. That it might have looked that jon was surounded by enemies because of the hostility in the air...

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

There are two aspects at play: what Mel sees and describes, and her interpretations. As you can see in the quote I provided, she is telling Jon what she saw: [Jon] hard-pressed, with enemies on every side”. I don’t think she’d describe a bunch of men from very different groups (NW, FF, QM) as all being Jon’s enemies and surrounding him from all sides. 

 

We get three versions of the vision.

This one is Mel's interpretation;

"You are wrong. I have dreamed of your Wall, Jon Snow. Great was the lore that raised it, and great the spells locked beneath its ice. We walk beneath one of the hinges of the world." Melisandre gazed up at it, her breath a warm moist cloud in the air. "This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?" (Jon I, ADwD 3)

This one is something that she seems to have genuinely seen in her flames;

"Do not be so certain." The ruby at Melisandre's throat gleamed red. "It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold." (Jon I, ADwD 3)

This is what we get in real time;

The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen. (Melisandre I, ADwD 31)

It's at least part of the vision. She seems familiar with it, so we seem to be getting the broad strokes. 

I think the skulls all around Jon is what she interprets as "enemies all around him." Skulls mean death. And the reason she wants him to keep Ghost by his side is because she a wolf in the vision. Most of us agree that this is Jon warging Ghost and then returning to his body, but she doesn't understand it that way, so her interpretation is that Ghost will protect Jon as long as he keeps him by his side. 

She spread her hands. "On the morrow. In a moon's turn. In a year. And it may be that if you act, you may avert what I have seen entirely." Else what would be the point of visions? (Melisandre I, ADwD 31)

This is Mel's problem in a nutshell.

[kissdbyfire]

@Alexis-something-Rose, I think the skulls Mel sees have to do w/ Bloodraven and Bran. I’ll expand on this eventually.