Who is the Grey girl in Melisandre's fires?

[Colonel Green]

Mel's vision is:  there's a girl on a dying horse trying to outrun danger, and she's coming into the vicinity.  Mel thinks it's Arya fleeing Winterfell.  Then a girl does indeed show up on a dying horse, but it's not Arya, it's Alys.  That fulfills the criteria.

This vision doesn't even prophesy anything particularly important in the grand scheme of things.  It's not even a meaningful twist if Alys, the girl on the dying horse, isn't the completely different girl on the dying horse who will show up in the future or may have been doing something in the past.  This feels like a simple and straightforward question that further theorizing is just needlessly overcomplicating.

[glassgardens]

9 minutes ago, corbon said:

Not seeing the difference.

No, she still thinks its Stannis as far as I can tell. She's confused about see Snow when she asks to see AA in the flames and expects to see Stannis.

She wants to bring Jon round to support her so she can getbetter support for Stannis. If she thought Jon was AA she'd be following him, not trying to convince him to follow her. 

Never mind that your argument makes a bunch of dodgy assumptions in order to prove those same dodgy assumptions, you didn't address the point at all.

You made the point that it had to be a 'future' vision, thus ruling out 'past' visions.
My counterpoint is that if this is a 'future' where some girl is coming north past Long Lake, why is the terrain in Long lake not covered in snow? Why is Mel seeing "hills, trees, field" rather than a generic snow covered landscape? Why is she seeing a lake with a thin crust of ice rather than a lake frozen solid? I mean, the snow is already metres deep at Winterfell, and thats much further south. And frankly, I don't see it getting warmer  and spring returning before we have some sort of resolution here. How is he girl travelling through stream beds when possible to throw off pursuers, if the stream beds don't have running water in them? If the stream beds have running water in them, how are they not frozen over under current "north of Winterfell" climatic conditions  and/or how is the girl or her horse, or both not had their feet/hooves frozen off already?
This is my point. How do you resolve the vision being only possible as a 'future' with the vision's climate clearly being significantly warmer than the current conditions in the North?

Like I said upthread, all of this is resolved by it not being in the North and it not being Long Lake. It’s in the Vale, and it’s Sansa fleeing her arranged marriage, and she’s probably running from Ironoaks (which sits on a lake that’s attached to a river that drains into the Narrow Sea) to either Old Anchor or Runestone on the coast.

[Dot Com]

28 minutes ago, glassgardens said:

 ... either they are Azor Ahai reborn themselves (somehow) 

Theory: what if Arya is Azor Ahai, and to end the Long Night she jumps out of a tree and stabs it to death? 

This is an original thought btw, no connection to that which shall not be named. 

[Colonel Green]

4 hours ago, glassgardens said:

Perhaps with Royce’s support, perhaps not, if Sansa can get to the coast, she might be able to catch a ship north.

Sansa fleeing north as a lone refugee (something she doesn't remotely have the skills for, anyway) doesn't at all fit with her story of learning to play the game of thrones.  GRRM has put a ton of work into setting up the Vale as a crucial uncommitted player and staging ground for her to do this.

[glassgardens]

21 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Sansa fleeing north as a lone refugee (something she doesn't remotely have the skills for, anyway) doesn't at all fit with her story of learning to play the game of thrones.  GRRM has put a ton of work into setting up the Vale as a crucial uncommitted player and staging ground for her to do this.

FTFY: Littlefinger has put a ton of work into setting up the Vale as a crucial uncommitted player and staging ground.

 

All I’m saying is that in this story a lot of people have a lot of plans that are thwarted by random twists of fate or, you know, people forgoing duty for love and such.

Given that Littlefinger is presented as such an amoral Machiavellian sneak-thief puppeteer creep, it would be delicious if all his decades of manipulation of the Tullys and the Starks and the Arryns was upended by Sansa rejecting him and going her own way for her own reasons.

Now I’m not saying that GRRM wouldn’t write a story where the sex pest who has been grooming a victim gets away with it and ultimately wins all the prizes, including the lady fair, but I think it’s just as likely that Sansa flips the table and scatters all his carefully placed cyvasse pieces across the room.

[corbon]

41 minutes ago, glassgardens said:

Like I said upthread, all of this is resolved by it not being in the North and it not being Long Lake. It’s in the Vale, and it’s Sansa fleeing her arranged marriage, and she’s probably running from Ironoaks (which sits on a lake that’s attached to a river that drains into the Narrow Sea) to either Old Anchor or Runestone on the coast.

You mean like this image? 

Its not exactly a "seemed to go on and on forever" lake is it?
Nor is there much suitable terrain for the girl to be fleeing north with the lake to her west.

I don't think there are many locations in all of Westeros that suit. You need a lake big enough in a N/S direction to 'go on and on forever'. I don't see many options that work, other than Long Lake, the God's Eye, and maybe one or two of the lakes out near Torrhens Square. And of those probably only around the God's Eye and dubiously Long Lake are the areas populated and cultivated enough to have fields, and villages to avoid.  

[glassgardens]

51 minutes ago, corbon said:

You mean like this image? 

Its not exactly a "seemed to go on and on forever" lake is it?
Nor is there much suitable terrain for the girl to be fleeing north with the lake to her west.

I don't think there are many locations in all of Westeros that suit. You need a lake big enough in a N/S direction to 'go on and on forever'. I don't see many options that work, other than Long Lake, the God's Eye, and maybe one or two of the lakes out near Torrhens Square. And of those probably only around the God's Eye and dubiously Long Lake are the areas populated and cultivated enough to have fields, and villages to avoid.  

I would note that even in this image of Ironoaks, which would presumably be the site of Sansa’s wedding to Harry (since he was a ward there, Anya Waynwood is one of the characters benefitting from this match and the Eyrie is closed for winter), is at a visibly lower elevation than the Eyrie and affiliated castles; it’s greener and flatter, which means it would be suitable to have associated villages and fields. It’s called Ironoaks, which would also suggest that it has (or had) affiliated forests or woodland, fulfilling the requirement for trees. We know it has a lake and streams.

Note: Without having a canon description, one could also theorize that this area is not as entirely snow-bound and desolate as the Mountains of the Moon and/or high-elevation seat of the Arryns in winter, which is above treeline. (These are regions of the Vale are inhospitable to both agriculture and settlement, which is why they are, in large part, the province of the nomadic hill tribes.) In which case, the lake might have just recently frozen over rather than been ice-fishing-level thick with ice at this time of year.

Additionally:

* Ironoaks is mentioned in AWOIAF as the site of a battle between the First Men led by King Robar Royce and Arryn’s Andal conquerors, which means it was standing (in some form) when the Vale was controlled by the First Men...which means that it quite likely has or had a heart tree...which brings Bran and Bloodraven back into the mix. (You could also parallel here the current power struggle between Bronze Yohn Royce and Littlefinger, who is clinging to the last tattered shreds of House Arryn.)

* Circumstantially, the placename Ironoaks is, to me, a flag that this location might be significant to the story. Metal and tree symbolism abound in ASOIAF, obviously, and this place name has both in one, which is telling, IMHO.

 

[Lollygag]

I know that folks want to put a mask and cape on Jon and they want everyone in his arc to amplify that role, but I don't agree. Do we know for sure that Alys came straight from Karhold? We've been given some major hints to not trust her. Robb/KitN killed Alys' father, and Sigorn blames Jon for his father's death. To underscore that, Jon compares Signorn's feelings with Jon being asked to make common cause with the Lannisters who killed Ned. In this world, people don't forget that sort of thing and it shouldn't be brushed aside because we want to believe Jon is just that awesome. Then we see Sigorn, who deeply hates Jon, very taken with Alys. Why? Jon's glowing benevolence? Not for these books. More like the Starks are responsible for the death of both of their fathers and they found common cause. I don't trust what she says and she may have not come from Karhold.

ASOS Catelyn III - Rickard remembers.

Lord Rickard Karstark dipped his head stiffly. "For that much, I thank you. But for naught else." He had dressed for death in a long black wool surcoat emblazoned with the white sunburst of his House. "The blood of the First Men flows in my veins as much as yours, boy. You would do well to remember that. I was named for your grandfather. I raised my banners against King Aerys for your father, and against King Joffrey for you. At Oxcross and the Whispering Wood and in the Battle of the Camps, I rode beside you, and I stood with Lord Eddard on the Trident. We are kin, Stark and Karstark."

"This kinship did not stop you from betraying me," Robb said. "And it will not save you now. Kneel, my lord."

Lord Rickard had spoken truly, Catelyn knew. The Karstarks traced their descent to Karlon Stark, a younger son of Winterfell who had put down a rebel lord a thousand years ago, and been granted lands for his valor. The castle he built had been named Karl's Hold, but that soon became Karhold, and over the centuries the Karhold Starks had become Karstarks.

"Old gods or new, it makes no matter," Lord Rickard told her son, "no man is so accursed as the kinslayer."

"Kneel, traitor," Robb said again. "Or must I have them force your head onto the block?"

Lord Karstark knelt. "The gods shall judge you, as you have judged me." He laid his head upon the block.

"Rickard Karstark, Lord of Karhold." Robb lifted the heavy axe with both hands. "Here in sight of gods and men, I judge you guilty of murder and high treason. In mine own name I condemn you. With mine own hand I take your life. Would you speak a final word?"

"Kill me, and be cursed. You are no king of mine."

The axe crashed down. Heavy and well-honed, it killed at a single blow, but it took three to sever the man's head from his body, and by the time it was done both living and dead were drenched in blood. Robb flung the poleaxe down in disgust, and turned wordless to the heart tree. He stood shaking with his hands half-clenched and the rain running down his cheeks. Gods forgive him, Catelyn prayed in silence. He is only a boy, and he had no other choice.

Alys repeatedly flirts quite heavily with Jon during her time there which is a manipulation tactic. Like Rickard, she says "Karhold remembers" like secondary house words which underscore Rickard's words to Robb.

ADWD Jon X

"As you say." She touched his hand. "Karhold remembers."

Red flag: Jon compares Sigorn's feelings about losing his father to Jon's feelings about the Lannisters killing Ned. But Sigorn and Alys forget so easily that that Robb and Jon are blamed for the death of both of their fathers?

ADWD Jon II

"It's death and destruction I want to bring down upon House Lannister, not scorn." Jon read from the letter.

ADWD Jon V

"Fight for you?" This voice was thickly accented. Sigorn, the young Magnar of Thenn, spoke the Common Tongue haltingly at best. "Not fight for you. Kill you better. Kill all you."

The raven flapped its wings. "Kill, kill."

Sigorn's father, the old Magnar, had been crushed beneath the falling stair during his attack on Castle Black. I would feel the same if someone asked me to make common cause with the Lannisters, Jon told himself. "Your father tried to kill us all," he reminded Sigorn. "The Magnar was a brave man, yet he failed. And if he had succeeded … who would hold the Wall?" He turned away from the Thenns. "Winterfell's walls were strong as well, but Winterfell stands in ruins today, burned and broken. A wall is only as good as the men defending it."

Without explanation, Sigorn is deeply taken with Alys and she agrees to marry some rando wildling without objection. Why?

ADWD Jon X

The Magnar all but ripped the maiden's cloak from Alys's shoulders, but when he fastened her bride's cloak about her he was almost tender. As he leaned down to kiss her cheek, their breath mingled. The flames roared once again. The queen's men began to sing a song of praise. "Is it done?" Jon heard Satin whisper.

 

[corbon]

13 minutes ago, glassgardens said:

I would note that even in this image of Ironoaks, which would presumably be the site of Sansa’s wedding to Harry since he was a ward there, the Eyrie is closed and Anya Waynwood is one of the characters benefitting from this match, is at a visibly lower elevation than the Eyrie and affiliated castles; it’s greener and flatter, which means it would be suitable to have associated villages and fields. It’s called Ironoaks, which would also suggest that it has (or had) affiliated forests or woodland, fulfilling the requirement for trees. We know it has a lake and streams.

Note: Without having a canon description, one could also theorize that this area is not as entirely snow-bound and desolate as the Mountains of the Moon and/or high-elevation seat of the Arryns in winter, which is above treeline. (These are regions of the Vale are inhospitable to both agriculture and settlement, which is why they are, in large part, the province of the nomadic hill tribes.) In which case, the lake might have just recently frozen over rather than been ice-fishing-level thick with ice at this time of year.

 

Yes, sure, Ironoaks satisfies the 'whats in the vicinity" and climate information much better than Long Lake and at least as well as Gods Eye. 

It doesn't seem to work size or shape wise though.

[corbon]

10 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I know that folks want to put a mask and cape on Jon and they want everyone in his arc to amplify that role, but I don't agree. ... it shouldn't be brushed aside because we want to believe Jon is just that awesome.

I don't agree with people who see everything as tarred with one brush for no other reason than they happen to not like that brush.
Hammer, we are not all nails. 

 

[Lollygag]

Just now, corbon said:

I don't agree with people who see everything as tarred with one brush for no other reason than they happen to not like that brush.
Hammer, we are not all nails. 

 

Nah.

GRRM inserts right in there what Jon feels about the Lannisters as a reminder. But somehow Alys and Sigorn are so forgiving? In this world where so much of the plot revolves around tribalism, rivalries, and retribution? The Game of Thrones? That's willful blindness when it comes to basic writing, characterization and themes. 

Again,

ADWD Jon II

"It's death and destruction I want to bring down upon House Lannister, not scorn." Jon read from the letter.

 

ADWD Jon V

"Fight for you?" This voice was thickly accented. Sigorn, the young Magnar of Thenn, spoke the Common Tongue haltingly at best. "Not fight for you. Kill you better. Kill all you."

The raven flapped its wings. "Kill, kill."

Sigorn's father, the old Magnar, had been crushed beneath the falling stair during his attack on Castle Black. I would feel the same if someone asked me to make common cause with the Lannisters, Jon told himself.

[glassgardens]

I always thought Sigorn was just excited to have sex. But there being a conspiracy makes sense too

[Rose of Red Lake]

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Sansa fleeing north as a lone refugee (something she doesn't remotely have the skills for, anyway) doesn't at all fit with her story of learning to play the game of thrones.  GRRM has put a ton of work into setting up the Vale as a crucial uncommitted player and staging ground for her to do this.

He also set her up to go North. That's LF's play. To have her return to Winterfell, with the Vale backing her. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

5 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

This isn't a literal investigation. She saw a girl, Told folks it was Arya but then Alys showed up. Mel was wrong. Fallible.  There is nothing more.

There are details given, though. Long Lake isn't any where near Karhold to the Wall, even if she was diverting her route (keep in mind she's in a freakin' hurry) and, she wasn't wearing grey.

Since the quality of the visions blur and dissolve into one another, Mel could have seen Alys, Jeyne, AND Sansa. 

[a black swan]

10 hours ago, corbon said:

I really like the Lyanna theory, which I hadn't really heard before (thats rare these days, so thanks all!). Certainly Gods Eye and the area around it very much fits the description, a lot better than Long Lake. And some time in the weeks or months before the time of Lyanna's 'abduction' there had been a severe cold snap after the False Spring that froze the Blackwater Rush. The ice 'forming' in Mel's vision could also be melting, un-forming.

I think the 'thin coat of ice just forming' basically rules out any near-current or near future version of Long Lake - that should be solidly frozen over by now for sure. Long Lake is well north of Winterfell and Winterfell had massive snow drifts piled high around it already - snow trenches and tunnels through the courtyards etc before fArya escaped (or Sansa came north, if she does). 

Could you expand on this point for me? Personally, I think it's either Arya or the next closest would be Lyanna from the past during this moment. 

Quote

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King’s Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city. As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

So just to clarify, it's Winter and then the False Spring appears for 2 months and things got warmer (but not enough for Oldtown to send out white ravens) However, it abruptly fades away for Winter that came back "with a vengeance". George goes into some nice detail in the World book. If the condition of the Blackwater, with it's strong treacherous currents freezing up so quickly and the added cold winds hammering KL - what state would the God's Eye be in? Would it be "blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it."? 

This would mean the God's Eye would have been frozen and then starting to thaw during the False Spring only to freeze up again. I dunno. What do you think?  

6 hours ago, corbon said:

My counterpoint is that if this is a 'future' where some girl is coming north past Long Lake, why is the terrain in Long lake not covered in snow? Why is Mel seeing "hills, trees, field" rather than a generic snow covered landscape? Why is she seeing a lake with a thin crust of ice rather than a lake frozen solid? I mean, the snow is already metres deep at Winterfell, and thats much further south. And frankly, I don't see it getting warmer and spring returning before we have some sort of resolution here. How is he girl travelling through stream beds when possible to throw off pursuers, if the stream beds don't have running water in them? If the stream beds have running water in them, how are they not frozen over under current "north of Winterfell" climatic conditions  and/or how is the girl or her horse, or both not had their feet/hooves frozen off already?

Spot on.  

[a black swan]

17 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Agreed. She's also not wearing grey. If she was in fact the "girl in grey" the author would have had her wear it - THAT is when GRRM becomes straightforward in his writing. Instead she's wearing an oversized black cloak, probably given to her by the Night's Watch. He would have flubbed TWO details if she was indeed Alys.

Interestingly, he even made Alys look enough like Arya "to give [Jon] pause." Mel knows what Jon looks like. She could be confusing Alys-almost-like-Arya look to conclude that they are related. However I think it's the sister that looks the least like him. I think it will be happy accident that it is indeed his other sister fleeing her marriage to Harry, coming from the south. She will wear grey (Stark colors) and will be near Long Lake.

Just wondering, but how would Mel going from assuming the girl is Jon's sister because she looks like him and shares the same coloring...etc to mistaking her for Sansa? Who looks nothing like either Arya or Jon? If Jeyne with help is falling apart and freezing almost to death right now - how bad will the conditions be later on in the North when Sansa apparently attempts to make a similar journey alone and with no knowledge or skill to survive? 

[Rose of Red Lake]

10 minutes ago, a black swan said:

Just wondering, but how would Mel going from assuming the girl is Jon's sister because she looks like him and shares the same coloring...etc to mistaking her for Sansa? Who looks nothing like either Arya or Jon? If Jeyne with help is falling apart and freezing almost to death right now - how bad will the conditions be later on in the North when Sansa apparently attempts to make a similar journey alone and with no knowledge or skill to survive? 

I think Mel might be seeing multiple shifting visions and thinks they are all one girl, so she sees Alys' face and maybe her horse shifting with Sansa's cloak and her (future) location near Long Lake. The visions where she sees Jon's face shifting with the head of a wolf seem to indicate that this is how the visions come out.

Sansa is a daughter of Ned Stark and of Winterfell and didn't have quite the same traumas as Jeyne did. I think she'll be able to navigate going North, probably with help from a sympathetic confidante. I agree with you in spirit at least that it should be Arya or Sansa. Such a crucial prophecy is wasted on a nobody, 3rd tier character like Alys Karstark whose house colors aren't even grey. It should be a main character, and a daughter of winterfell.

[Dreadscythe95]

Imo it's definitely Alys. Grey girl means a Stark and Jeyne Pool is not a Stark. Alys on the other hand is a Karstark.

[Colonel Green]

8 hours ago, glassgardens said:

FTFY: Littlefinger has put a ton of work into setting up the Vale as a crucial uncommitted player and staging ground.

All I’m saying is that in this story a lot of people have a lot of plans that are thwarted by random twists of fate or, you know, people forgoing duty for love and such.

Given that Littlefinger is presented as such an amoral Machiavellian sneak-thief puppeteer creep, it would be delicious if all his decades of manipulation of the Tullys and the Starks and the Arryns was upended by Sansa rejecting him and going her own way for her own reasons.

Now I’m not saying that GRRM wouldn’t write a story where the sex pest who has been grooming a victim gets away with it and ultimately wins all the prizes, including the lady fair, but I think it’s just as likely that Sansa flips the table and scatters all his carefully placed cyvasse pieces across the room.

Sansa is obviously going to upset Littlefinger's plans, but she's going to do it by defeating him, not by running away to the North and leaving him to his own devices.

4 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

He also set her up to go North. That's LF's play. To have her return to Winterfell, with the Vale backing her. 

Which would be incompatible with her being the lone girl on the dying horse.

2 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Such a crucial prophecy is wasted on a nobody, 3rd tier character like Alys Karstark whose house colors aren't even grey. It should be a main character, and a daughter of winterfell.

How is this a crucial prophecy?  There is nothing to it beyond the mere fact that a girl will show up on a dying horse, which Alys did.

[Springwatch]

16 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

There is nothing to it beyond the mere fact that a girl will show up on a dying horse, which Alys did.

Not necessarily - prophecies can be multi-layered. Sweetrobin's doll fulfils the High Heart prophecy, but most people expect a repeat performance with a real giant (of some sort). Stannis tried to avoid the Renly-defeat prophecy by diverting to Storm's End, but the prophecy caught up with him anyway.