Aegon as a king

[Aldarion]

7 minutes ago, Morte said:

Only until the reforms of Marius.

 

Which is why I noted "early" hastati. But after those reforms, they exchanged hasta for javelins.

8 minutes ago, Morte said:

Only until the reforms of Marius (you mean the velites).

 

Nope. Velites carried three light javelins. Principi and Hastati carried two heavy javelins. Only triarii carried a long spear, and they had no additional javelins. After Marius' reforms, all soldiers are armed with two heavy javelins - basically, all soldiers became Hastati.

12 minutes ago, Morte said:

Well, from what we know, they at least carry a "short" hasta, a spear around 2-2,5m length (but keep in mind that we don't know the length of the spear, nor do we know if this is the only thrusting spear the Unsullied know, it could easily be retconned, if needed).

Do we? My memory isn't the best, true, but I only remember them carrying three spears. And javelins can be - and were - used as thrusting spears in a pinch.

[Morte]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

After Marius' reforms, all soldiers are armed with two heavy javelins - basically, all soldiers became Hastati.

With one hasta, two pila, one gladius, one scutum, one pugio and standardized armour. So it would be more correct to say they all became one and the same (and differentiated from here again, over time). And I was talking about the Early to High Principate here, not about the Early Republic, nor about the time in which the hasta came out of use during the Late Republic (as I said above that it did).

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Do we? My memory isn't the best, true, but I only remember them carrying three spears. And javelins can be - and were - used as thrusting spears in a pinch.

*sigh* Martin isn't specific, we don't know how long the spear is the Unsullied use for thrusting, but they carry at least one thrusting spear and two more, one short sword and a shield (hint, hint) and sure you can use a javelin for thrusting, just as you can throw even a sarissa (see Strabon above).

It matters not, Martin will build it in like he wants to, not how it would have been historically correct, else he would have to answer my questions above first, which is tiresome even for historians.

He wants the Unsullied to be some kind of Legion/Phalanx, he will make them function. Realism be damned.

[Aldarion]

28 minutes ago, Morte said:

With one hasta, two pila, one gladius, one scutum, one pugio and standardized armour. So it would be more correct to say they all became one and the same (and differentiated from here again, over time). And I was talking about the Early to High Principate here, not about the Early Republic, nor about the time in which the hasta came out of use during the Late Republic (as I said above that it did).

 

No, hasta was not included. It was in fact completely discarded, and legionaries wore only two javelins:

https://www.imperiumromanum.edu.pl/en/roman-army/marian-reforms/

"The pilum, scutum and gladium were used, plus the dagger (pugio). Each soldier must have two pila, light and heavy.

The Plutarch of Cheronei attributed Gaius Marius to innovation in the javelin. The modification consisted in replacing one of the metal rivets connecting the shaft with the shaft with a wooden dowel. When the pilum hit the target, the stem hung only on one rivet and the javelin could not be thrown away."

https://books.google.hr/books?id=WouFAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA45&lpg=PA45&dq=roman+post-marian+legionary+weapons&source=bl&ots=oy0IfyXzFK&sig=ACfU3U1R-zXUsfJd42ZYEjnIveEjXsxMNg&hl=hr&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwji15nQ9-rpAhWcRBUIHXh0Aq4Q6AEwGnoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=roman post-marian legionary weapons&f=false

Also, Companion to Roman Army:

"Legionaries were armed with full panoply, equipped for fighting in close quarters
combat, and are most frequently depicted in armor and a helmet, carrying a large
shield (scutum), javelin (pilum), and short sword (gladius), at least in the early imper-
ial period. Small groups of legionaries are sometimes described as leves cohortes (light
cohorts, Tacitus, Ann. 4.25), but the sources fail to indicate whether they were equipped
differently, or were simply operating without much in the way of supplies, camping
gear etc. that might weigh them down. However, it is clear that the uniform image
of the imperial legionary wearing segmented armor that we are familiar with from
Trajan’s Column is an ideal; sculptures from tombstones and provincial monuments
such as Adamklissi depict legionaries with a range of different armor and weapons,
and in some legions some of the soldiers were equipped differently from others."

Now, this was not hard-and-fast rule. BUT it should be noted that while we see Imperial legionaries armed with javelins and long spears, it is always one or the other: one group with javelins, second with pikes:

"Arrian’s
two legions for his proposed engagement with the Alan cavalry in ad 135 were divided
into two groups; the first four ranks were armed with one type of pike or spear
(kontos) whilst the rear four carried a different spear (lonkhe¯) (acies contra Alanos
16–18). The latter may have been similar to the lancea with which some of the legionar-
ies in Legion II Parthica were equipped in the early third century ad, when it was
stationed at Apamea in Syria.14 These variations in equipment were not necessarily
permanent and were a response to local military conditions and the particular threats
being faced; such changes indicate that the Roman army was able to accommodate
change, and flexibility and variation of roles could occur both within legions and
through the employment of other types of unit."

28 minutes ago, Morte said:

*sigh* Martin isn't specific, we don't know how long the spear is the Unsullied use for thrusting, but they carry at least one thrusting spear and two more, one short sword and a shield (hint, hint) and sure you can use a javelin for thrusting, just as you can throw even a sarissa (see Strabon above).

It matters not, Martin will build it in like he wants to, not how it would have been historically correct, else he would have to answer my questions above first, which is tiresome even for historians.

He wants the Unsullied to be some kind of Legion/Phalanx, he will make them function. Realism be damned.

Agreed with realism part. As for the previous, panoply you described can be anything: Greek hoplite, Roman velitae, Roman legionary of Principate, Roman legionary of Dominate (although first and last ones usually only carried one spear). What all listed have in common however is that they carried either multiple throwing spears or one thrusting spear. Which is why I have hard time swallowing that.

[Morte]

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

No, hasta was not included. It was in fact completely discarded, and legionaries wore only two javelins

Okay, I looked it up, so here's what I found in my books at home, and it may make clear, what our misunderstanding was:

We have no written records of the hasta for the Late Republic or the Early Principate, but - big but - that's not was our archaeological findings are telling us, as we have hastae (and other lances) both on Grave reliefs, as well as parts of the archaeological findings inside of camps; it's actually the same with the reintroduction of hastae, the further distribution of lighter javelins and the introduction of the contus during the Principate: the pilum is still found in the strata, but no longer prominent in the writing in Later antiquity.

Actually this (different spears for different circumstances) makes a lot of sense from a military viewpoint, as while the pilum can be used as a thrusting weapon, it is not that well suited for a spear wall, because of it's flexible iron shaft. While the head was hardened, the shaft itself was flexible, so the pilum would bend if it hit the ground, a shield or the enemy's body and someone would try to pull it out, so it could not be easily removed and thrown back. And while a "normal" throwing spear would stuck just as far as its head went, the thin long iron shaft of the pilum penetrated the target far deeper, no matter if torso or shield (Junkelmann states that at 5 meters he and his untrained colleagues were able the pierce 3cm of Pine, with the iron shaft following the head like a epee though everything the pilum would hit).

But why the discrepancy between writing and finding? Well, might be we are unlucky with the 3-5% we have available of literature, might be we were very lucky with the ~5% that was left for us to find, but it is just as likely that the writing is just a little bit unspecific, as we have the same problem with the termini spatha and gladius hispaniensis, as it's not that clear where the gladius ends and where the spatha begins, neither in literature nor in the archaeological findings.

So I think we had a misunderstanding here, as I don't think they would use the different weapons simultaneously, just that they were present and available than needed in a specific situation.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

"Arrian’s two legions for his proposed engagement with the Alan cavalry in ad 135 were divided into two groups; the first four ranks were armed with one type of pike or spear (kontos) whilst the rear four carried a different spear (lonkhe¯) (acies contra Alanos16–18). The latter may have been similar to the lancea with which some of the legionaries in Legion II Parthica were equipped in the early third century ad, when it was
stationed at Apamea in Syria.14 These variations in equipment were not necessarily permanent and were a response to local military conditions and the particular threats being faced; such changes indicate that the Roman army was able to accommodate change, and flexibility and variation of roles could occur both within legions and through the employment of other types of unit."

We should never forget that a Legion could make and forge missing but situationally needed equipment if needed even on the march, and they also carried quite a bunch of "junk" with them. This is actually a very good citation (albeit quite late), as the Parthica in Syria would be a legion who would be prepared to face Parthian/Sassanidic cavalry.

That said:

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

greed with realism part. As for the previous, panoply you described can be anything: Greek hoplite, Roman velitae, Roman legionary of Principate, Roman legionary of Dominate (although first and last ones usually only carried one spear). What all listed have in common however is that they carried either multiple throwing spears or one thrusting spear. Which is why I have hard time swallowing that.

We haven't seen them in action "live" till now, so this is all speculation, but they do form a spear wall... Everything else we have to wait and see.

And you don't have to swallow it, I finally found it (Hurray!), I remembered that one false, it's just one spear they carry. Sorry.

[Tyrion1991]

OP

I think Aegon exists as a character to undermine Daenerys. He is a random character intended to railroad her into taking a dark turn.

Because of this he will be an incredibly successful King. He will achieve everything Dany set out to do. The people will rise for him. The Targaryen loyalist Lords will flock to him. He will win battle after battle. This very success will make Dany irrelevant. Her story will have been achieved by another character. He does not even need to marry Dany though I suspect George will not give Dany that pretext. I think he’ll want to give her the illusion of choice. Then we have two Targaryens destroying each other leaving the Starks to inherit Westeros by default.

[Lord Varys]

How did this turn into a thread on Roman military history ;-)?

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

But who is to say that Euron will be able to drop everything he is doing to take care of Aegon?

We can expect him to crush the Redwynes - if he doesn't do that he and his campaign will be dead history, and George build up this intriguingly dangerous character for nothing. That's very unlikely to happen. Once the Redwynes are crushed Westeros won't have sufficient naval strength at sea to protect its coast against Ironborn raiders.

I expect Euron to take the Arbor, but he is not going to stay there. He wants the Iron Throne, and KL is a harbor city. He can attack it and is likely going to prepare to do that - at first, expeciting that Vic and Dany and the dragons will join him.

The first strike at Aegon is likely going to be an attack on a defenseless Sunspear - Doran has sent 20,000 Dornishmen up north, they are not there to defend the homeland anymore - and even if they were, Sunspear is at the coast, too, if a hundred longships landed there the castle could be sacked and burned long before help arrived.

This is also a target that is going to make sense for Euron militarily. I expect him to not know about Aegon ... meaning he will be furious to learn that there is another Targaryen pretender who is about to take the Iron Throne. And when he learns Dorne is supporting them he will strike at them because they are easily reached and pretty defenseless.

He could also attack Starfall now that I think of it. Perhaps that's how Areo's story is eventually going to intersect with another?

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Much like how he just couldn't afford to leave for Slaver's Bay with all the Ironborn, I doubt he will be able to completely stop whatever he is doing just to take Aegon out of the picture. Especially not with his lords clamoring to pay the iron price. If he wants to abandon his temporary goals in the Reach on a moment's notice, he's going to have to leave his army and take a smaller contingent to Aegon. What good does that do him to be separated from 80% of his strength. Moreover, if he could have afforded to do that, why bother sending Victarion when he could leave Victarion and go after Daenerys himself.

His Ironborn will see him work magic to crush the Redwynes. They will worship him as a god-king after that, especially if the magic he works is going to be visibly very impressive - say, Euron creating a tornado above the Silence and then sending it directly against the Redwynes, or him clearly calling up an army of giant krakens drawing ships into the deep -, not to mention afterwards he will give them the entire Arbor and the riches that are to be had there. They will fear and worship and love Euron since he effectively gives all the spoils he captures away.

Euron didn't go to Slaver's Bay because he couldn't yet leave his Ironborn and be sure they would remain loyal in his absence.

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

And like others have mentioned before, the Ironborn's power lies at sea whereas Aegon has firmly entrenched himself with a fairly powerful land-based army on the mainland. By the time Euron gets to the other side of Westeros, Aegon will have further cemented himself.

Again, KL is a harbor city. It can be attacked by an armada, the city can be stormed and sacked, and the castle taken, and the king inside can be killed.

If Euron ever sits the Iron Throne, I think he will capture the city while the monarch there is away on a campaign, but it is also imaginable that Aegon is there but it is a surprise attack and he simply doesn't have enough men in the city to repel it. Then he might be killed, captured, or barely escape with his life (Varys certainly would get him out if the Red Keep was falling).

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

And there's a good chance that with Arianne involved, Aegon may only have need of one of the two Dornish armies. The other Dornish army can either return to Sunspear, march westwards to secure the Reach/drive out the Ironborn or both.

Sure, it will be interesting to see what those Dornish army will be doing. The one in the Prince's Pass is indeed a wildcard, the one in the Boneway could join Aegon in time for his first battle with the Tyrells ... or join him thereafter when they take KL.

The idea of Prince's Pass army attacking the Reach could make sense if it turned out that the Tyrells were actually going to resist Aegon's rise even after Aegon beats them at Storm's End. That might work if either Tommen or Myrcella are going to be spirited away by Mace Tyrell. I never considered such a scenario before but the idea of perhaps one of Cersei's children dying in the very new future in KL and the other being taking from her and becoming a complete pawn of the Tyrells could be an interesting plot.

Such a scenario could be where Tommen and Margaery flee the city to Highgarden before Aegon can capture them, or a scenario where Myrcella is taken to Highgarden to marry Willas Tyrell there (a match Kevan expects Mace to eventually suggest in the Epilogue). A Queen Myrcella with a Tyrell king consort could be a massive pain in the ass for Aegon and anyone else simply due to the many men the Tyrells can muster - even if a considerable number of their men were to join Aegon.

And while Myrcella liked Arianne pretty much in Dorne, we don't know how she actually feels about have lost part of her face thanks to her. She confirmed the tale Arianne and Doran wanted her to tell, but that is going to change should she get back to KL. And if Arianne ends up as Aegon's queen Myrcella might like that even less. Unlike Tommen, she is a smart and forceful girl in AFfC.

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't think he's marrying Sansa. I don't even think Sansa will be in the Vale; I think Sansa will be back in Winterfell by the very end of The Winds of Winter.

That is very unlikely. But, of course, still possible.

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Aegon may send men to the Wall (or, should I say, their deaths) but I doubt he's going to go north. I don't see it happening until after Daenerys has arrived in Westeros.

There are many unknowns there, but I think we can expect the promised prince story to eventually figure into the Aegon plot since Rhaegar believed he was that guy. In that sense, Aegon will try to be him, and that, in turn, indicates he will concern himself with things in the North eventually. When exactly he will have time for that is completely impossible to even guess at since that depends on what happens and what he learns about what happens at other places at what time.

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I definitely don't think the Tyrells will bend the knee to Aegon. Well, some might but not all of them and definitely not immediately after whatever happens at Storm's End happens at Storm's End.

The crucial one at first will only be Mace - and he/his people certainly would bend the knee if Mace died in battle or was captured by Aegon. If a lot of men in Mace's army would refuse to fight a Targaryen or defected to his side, we should also expect this to push him into a certain direction.

And in any case - if Aegon really crushes the Tyrell army (and quickly takes the Iron Throne) then this certainly is going to give Highgarden (i.e. Willas, Olenna, Alerie, the uncles, etc.) pause. They have the Ironborn problem already, they would not immediately raise another army, especially not if things with Margaery and Tommen get even more problematic. They would wait and either do nothing or only involve themselves when they have to (i.e. if Margaery/Mace were to return to Highgarden with Tommen or Myrcella in tow).

21 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Loras is on Dragonstone, both of which are pretty much marking time for Daenerys to take it and use it to arm the people of Westeros with dragonglass. I see him as House Tyrell's ace-in-the-hole, a way for House Tyrell to straddle the fence.

Forget that Dragonstone plot from the show. Nobody is going to bother much with that island. Sure, both Aegon and Dany might go there because it is the place of their ancestors (and to be honest, I'd very much like a Loras POV on Dragonstone in TWoW because I really like the place and think it is going to become important as a place later in the series eventually, delivering on the eerie atmosphere we got in the Cressen Prologue), but this is not going to be a military command center. The show plot with Dany and Cersei on Dragonstone/KL is them ripping of the historical Dance, not the future story in the books - at least that's my take on that.

[Morte]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

How did this turn into a thread on Roman military history ;-)?

No clue... 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There are many unknowns there, but I think we can expect the promised prince story to eventually figure into the Aegon plot since Rhaegar believed he was that guy. In that sense, Aegon will try to be him, and that, in turn, indicates he will concern himself with things in the North eventually. When exactly he will have time for that is completely impossible to even guess at since that depends on what happens and what he learns about what happens at other places at what time.

I actually don't see Aegon being involved in the plot North, because he hasn't anyone within his group, nor within his potential allies who does believe in the threat of the Others. It might be he will march North later, after the Wall came down and Dany has already landed, but is moving north instead of south to meet him.

Also the informations from north of the Neck will come more spare now with Winter, so he might have a disadvantage here, compared to Dany and her magicians.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Forget that Dragonstone plot from the show. Nobody is going to bother much with that island. Sure, both Aegon and Dany might go there because it is the place of their ancestors [...], but this is not going to be a military command center. The show plot with Dany and Cersei on Dragonstone/KL is them ripping of the historical Dance, not the future story in the books - at least that's my take on that.

I agree here completely. While I do think Dany will land here with a part of her fleet, because it's her ancestral seat (and she was born there) and because Marwyn at al. will most likely tell her to go there because of the dragon glass and other magical items they need, I don't think Aegon will bother as long as he has other places to secure; for him it's just a rock while his campaign isn't finished yet, or does he have ships to reach it (yet). If he takes KL it might be enough for him to get a raven telling him that Dragonstone is also his now, while he is dealing with the more urgent matters of the wasteland-kingdom.

Concerning Dany: She will land there and most likely find things hidden away in secret, magically sealed passages (no way for Kevan's musing about the stronghold being unimportant), but imho her main forces will land at the Saltpens (her armada will be way to big to be able to land in any harbour in Westeros, and the Longships can be dragged on land here). And of course we have the Chekhov's castle big enough for Dany's army with the convenient communication-hub for Bloodraven and Bran sitting just next to the Saltpens. So my guess is that Dany's command centre will be Harrenhall, as Hastings might simply go over to her the moment she starts giving out provisions to the small-folk of the Riverlands.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

and to be honest, I'd very much like a Loras POV on Dragonstone in TWoW because I really like the place and think it is going to become important as a place later in the series eventually, delivering on the eerie atmosphere we got in the Cressen Prologue

You are not alone!

If Dany starts making the preparations for going to Westeros at the end of TWoW a Loras-Epilogue with him waiting what the winter-storms might bring on Dragonstone would make an interesting transition.

[Aldarion]

16 hours ago, Morte said:

Okay, I looked it up, so here's what I found in my books at home, and it may make clear, what our misunderstanding was:

We have no written records of the hasta for the Late Republic or the Early Principate, but - big but - that's not was our archaeological findings are telling us, as we have hastae (and other lances) both on Grave reliefs, as well as parts of the archaeological findings inside of camps; it's actually the same with the reintroduction of hastae, the further distribution of lighter javelins and the introduction of the contus during the Principate: the pilum is still found in the strata, but no longer prominent in the writing in Later antiquity.

Actually this (different spears for different circumstances) makes a lot of sense from a military viewpoint, as while the pilum can be used as a thrusting weapon, it is not that well suited for a spear wall, because of it's flexible iron shaft. While the head was hardened, the shaft itself was flexible, so the pilum would bend if it hit the ground, a shield or the enemy's body and someone would try to pull it out, so it could not be easily removed and thrown back. And while a "normal" throwing spear would stuck just as far as its head went, the thin long iron shaft of the pilum penetrated the target far deeper, no matter if torso or shield (Junkelmann states that at 5 meters he and his untrained colleagues were able the pierce 3cm of Pine, with the iron shaft following the head like a epee though everything the pilum would hit).

But why the discrepancy between writing and finding? Well, might be we are unlucky with the 3-5% we have available of literature, might be we were very lucky with the ~5% that was left for us to find, but it is just as likely that the writing is just a little bit unspecific, as we have the same problem with the termini spatha and gladius hispaniensis, as it's not that clear where the gladius ends and where the spatha begins, neither in literature nor in the archaeological findings.

So I think we had a misunderstanding here, as I don't think they would use the different weapons simultaneously, just that they were present and available than needed in a specific situation.

I was interpreting it in context of discussion that Unsullied carry three spears. You wrote this:

With one hasta, two pila, one gladius, one scutum, one pugio and standardized armour.

So I concluded you were arguing that legionaries carried a hasta plus two pila, for a total of three spears. Now, it is not impossible for pike-armed infantry to carry ranged weapons as well, but I have found no record of them carrying javelins. Byzantine infantrymen did carry slings.

I agree there is a possibility that hasta was still used after Marian reforms, but if it was, then use was sporadic. Otherwise we would not have Caesar's legionaries using pila to drive off Pompeian cavalry. That being said, hasta might have been reintroduced due to contact with Parthians, or, more likely, Sassanids and their heavy armoured cavalry (so post-Carrhae). In which case we might be looking at early differences between eastern and western legions.

17 hours ago, Morte said:

We haven't seen them in action "live" till now, so this is all speculation, but they do form a spear wall... Everything else we have to wait and see.

And you don't have to swallow it, I finally found it (Hurray!), I remembered that one false, it's just one spear they carry. Sorry.

Thanks.

13 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

OP

I think Aegon exists as a character to undermine Daenerys. He is a random character intended to railroad her into taking a dark turn.

Because of this he will be an incredibly successful King. He will achieve everything Dany set out to do. The people will rise for him. The Targaryen loyalist Lords will flock to him. He will win battle after battle. This very success will make Dany irrelevant. Her story will have been achieved by another character. He does not even need to marry Dany though I suspect George will not give Dany that pretext. I think he’ll want to give her the illusion of choice. Then we have two Targaryens destroying each other leaving the Starks to inherit Westeros by default.

That is what I believe as well, although - as I noted before - while I do believe he will be a good king, he will definitely not be an ideal king.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The first strike at Aegon is likely going to be an attack on a defenseless Sunspear - Doran has sent 20,000 Dornishmen up north, they are not there to defend the homeland anymore - and even if they were, Sunspear is at the coast, too, if a hundred longships landed there the castle could be sacked and burned long before help arrived.

Vikings generally ignored well-defended cities, let alone well-defended castles. When they did sack fortified cities, they did it by exploiting chaos that left said cities undefended. Norman attack on fortified city of Rab in Croatia was a failure.

Of course, a lot will depend on exact situation. It is unlikely Sunspear is defenseless - even moderately wealthy cities will have had militias, which (I hope) Martin will have been aware of. These militias were often useless in battles on open field, but could be very good in defending cities - and well-trained militias could actually stand up to many regular armies on open field, if properly led. But even so, there is always a possibility of treachery, magic etc.

[Hodor the Articulate]

On 6/5/2020 at 10:42 PM, Aldarion said:

I don't have to drop anything. Rather, you have to drop your binary view of good king/bad king. Varyis is not presenting Aegon as merely a "good king", but as an "ideal king". He can still prove an adequate ruler while being a far cry from what he is being touted as. Hardly anybody would call Matthias Corvinus, or Nikephoros II. Phokas, or Sigismund of Luxembourg, or Baldwin IV or Jerusalem, ideal rulers. But all of them were good rulers. Heck, even Vlad Dracul was a good ruler, compared to many.

Managing the kingdom does not stop because kingdom is in war. Matthias Corvinus had time for war and reforms both. So did Diocletian.

But you called him a good king! And then you said he was failure of a project in moulding a good king. You said all this without the context of Varys' monologue, which I hadn't brought up at that point.

I don't care what Corvinus or Diocletian did. You have to support the claim that Aegon will be good king. How can GRRM show us he is a good king or even a better-then-everyone-else-left king?

On 6/5/2020 at 10:42 PM, Aldarion said:

I am falling back on RL history because one of reasons George Martin started writing was that he wanted to show realistic struggles of ruling, instead of relying (as Tolkien did) on medieval assumption that good man = good ruler. To repeat:

But as others have noted, GRRM's story isn't always realistic. He may draw on real historical events and figures for inspiration but he's still writing a fantasy novel, not a textbook. Also, his interpretation of history may not agree with yours, and it's impossible you have the exact same knowledge.

On 6/5/2020 at 10:42 PM, Aldarion said:

He would have had hard time attracting allies in more normal circumstances, yes. But keep in mind that Tywin Lannister is dead, Kevan Lannister is dead... Cersei has a free reign in King's Landing. If you want to be technical, Aegon probably does not need to fight a single battle to gain the throne: Cersei will do all the work for him.

Stannis is in the North, without a fleet. By the time he becomes an issue, Daenerys may well have already arrived.

On 6/5/2020 at 10:42 PM, Aldarion said:

My point is that Aegon is the only hope of peace they have. Tywin is dead, Kevan is dead, Cersei is psychothic, Euron wants to rape, pillage and burn, and nobody liked Stannis to begin with (except for those who knew him personally). Aegon doesn't need to "magically end all war"; merely working on it will already gain him popular acclaim. And when Daenerys comes talking about "muh throne", everybody will be like "where were you a year ago?".

As for how attractive Daenerys will be, that depends in good part on her behaviour. If she decides that "fire and blood" are the way, then she will be a tyrant with dragons, not a legitimate ruler with dragons.

So what, Cersei & her kids, the Tyrells, Freys, LF, All the lords in the Westerlands and Euron... are all going to just *poof* disappear at the start of the next book?

The problem with your argument is that much of the realm has been at peace since the Battle of the Blackwater. Even if Cersei's actions cause the Tyrells to take arms against her, this will be going on either at the same time or just before Aegon comes to KL. There's no reason for anyone to think this kid with a shaky identity is going to give them peace.

[Aldarion]

8 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

But you called him a good king! And then you said he was failure of a project in moulding a good king. You said all this without the context of Varys' monologue, which I hadn't brought up at that point.

I called him a potentially good king. I claimed he is a failure in a project of making an ideal king. Good =/= ideal.

You wrote this:

There's no rule that says writers have to show all possible sides to deconstruct a trope. And there's zero chance Aegon can be shown to be a "good king" because he won't have time to achieve anything in war-torn Westeros before Dany arrives. You yourself admit Aegon isn't what he's touted to be.

I wrote this in reply:

He is not. Neither is anybody else, and he is frankly better option than most other alternatives. Possibly including Daenerys, depending on how her (and his) future development goes.

He is touted to be an "ideal king", by Varys at least. He can still make major mistakes while being better choice than most who claimed the throne by right of inheritance.

13 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I don't care what Corvinus or Diocletian did. You have to support the claim that Aegon will be good king. How can GRRM show us he is a good king or even a better-then-everyone-else-left king?

 

By actually bringing some kind of peace to Westeros. I doubt Martin will be able to thoroughly analyze "Aegon's tax policy" in space he will be able to give him, at least if he wants to wrap up his plot and bring Daenerys to Westeros in the next book (and that is assuming two more books - one for Aegon, one for Others). Keep in mind however that "some kind of peace" is relative - Westeros is very rarely actually at peace.

20 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

But you called him a good king! And then you said he was failure of a project in moulding a good king. You said all this without the context of Varys' monologue, which I hadn't brought up at that point.

I have noted that myself, as well. In fact, I believe I mentioned that Gondor's political system is more realistic than that of Westeros (at least if you ignore whole "ideal king" trope). But even so, that is his stated goal. Whether he abandoned it or simply is incapable of fulfilling it is not clear to me at this point. If anything, it seems that Martin just assumes that Grimdark! = Realism.

22 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

So what, Cersei & her kids, the Tyrells, Freys, LF, All the lords in the Westerlands and Euron... are all going to just *poof* disappear at the start of the next book?

The problem with your argument is that much of the realm has been at peace since the Battle of the Blackwater. Even if Cersei's actions cause the Tyrells to take arms against her, this will be going on either at the same time or just before Aegon comes to KL. There's no reason for anyone to think this kid with a shaky identity is going to give them peace.

1) They are not going to disappear. But nobody except their immediate supporters is going to want them on the Iron Throne... or anywhere near it.

2a) Much of the realm has been at peace since the Battle of Blackwater thanks to Tywin. But Cersei will likely undo whole of Tywin's work - she has started doing that already, actually.

2b) Also, "no armies going at each other" =/= "peace". Bandits and pirates prosper during war in part because army is not available to suppress them - and also because many mercenaries ("sellswords") turn to banditry when employment is not available. In fact, both of first professional mobile armies in 15th century Europe - French Compagnies d'Ordonnance and Hungarian Black Army - were created when king decided to permanently employ mercenaries in order to a) increase royal authority and b) prevent said mercenaries from looting and pillaging during peacetime. But absent that, for many areas, end of war can mean increase in insecurity, as areas that had remained untouched by war so far attract various bandits. And Iron Throne currently does not have financial means to create a standing army.

[Morte]

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

So I concluded you were arguing that legionaries carried a hasta plus two pila, for a total of three spears. Now, it is not impossible for pike-armed infantry to carry ranged weapons as well, but I have found no record of them carrying javelins. Byzantine infantrymen did carry slings.

I agree there is a possibility that hasta was still used after Marian reforms, but if it was, then use was sporadic. Otherwise we would not have Caesar's legionaries using pila to drive off Pompeian cavalry. That being said, hasta might have been reintroduced due to contact with Parthians, or, more likely, Sassanids and their heavy armoured cavalry (so post-Carrhae). In which case we might be looking at early differences between eastern and western legions.

On hint-side it did sound like I was talking about using them simultaneously, but what I meant was - they were available and were used (because we have them on Graves and in the strata). And we have finding from both eastern as well as western legion camps (from the Principate), so it wasn't a thing only used in the East. However, the hasta was quite out of use in the very Late Republic, so Caesar's legionaries most likely really hadn't any lances with them against Pompeius. The change in the Early Principate can of course be attributed to Carrhae, or the Parthians in general. But I also don't think they could switch easily on the field, but that depending on the foe, a number of legionaries would be equipped with lances from the start, so if you don't have any momentary "hastatii", you have to work with what you have.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Of course, a lot will depend on exact situation. It is unlikely Sunspear is defenseless - even moderately wealthy cities will have had militias, which (I hope) Martin will have been aware of. These militias were often useless in battles on open field, but could be very good in defending cities - and well-trained militias could actually stand up to many regular armies on open field, if properly led. But even so, there is always a possibility of treachery, magic etc.

Just one thing: Sunspear is marked as a castle on the map, not as a city (as I noted before, Westeros has much too few cities for a continent the size of South America, even in the MA). Sunspear will still have a garrison though.

[BlackLightning]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We can expect him to crush the Redwynes - if he doesn't do that he and his campaign will be dead history, and George build up this intriguingly dangerous character for nothing. That's very unlikely to happen. Once the Redwynes are crushed Westeros won't have sufficient naval strength at sea to protect its coast against Ironborn raiders.

Or against the return of Daenerys Targaryen. 

So, in other words, agreed.

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I expect Euron to take the Arbor, but he is not going to stay there. He wants the Iron Throne, and KL is a harbor city. He can attack it and is likely going to prepare to do that - at first, expecting that Vic and Dany and the dragons will join him.

Euron Greyjoy is no fool. He will not put all his eggs in the basket(case) that is Victarion. He will be preparing for the possibilities that Victarion either comes back alone, Victarion comes back with Daenerys as an unwilling captive, Daenerys comes without Victarion, etc.

He won't be totally unprepared in regards to Daenerys or Victarion.

What I do expect is for Euron to be caught off guard by Aegon. Or, at least, be forced to throw something together at the last minute because of Aegon.

I also expect that Euron's men will push him to make landfall on the mainland and put pressure on House Hightower...and for good reason.

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The first strike at Aegon is likely going to be an attack on a defenseless Sunspear - Doran has sent 20,000 Dornishmen up north, they are not there to defend the homeland anymore - and even if they were, Sunspear is at the coast, too, if a hundred longships landed there the castle could be sacked and burned long before help arrived.

Why do you think Sunspear is defenseless?!

First of all, the fact that Doran Martell felt like he could hide an armada loyal to Daenerys Targaryen in the Greenblood suggests that Dorne has a degree of naval power. You can't hide a fleet (or part of a fleet) of ships if you have no similar ships of your own. Anyone with a brain will find it alarmingly suspicious that you have no real ships with any military capacity one day and then you have a bunch of battle-ready ships on standby the next day.

Doran Martell is much too careful to make a boneheaded mistake. Besides, he uses "the grass hides the snake" analogy a lot.

Second of all, Doran Martell -- again -- is much too careful to leave Sunspear unguarded and defenseless. What with the civil unrest there, I fully expect that there are soldiers stationed in Sunspear.

Doran Martell is no idiot. I don't believe that he would put all of his power in the Red Mountains and leave his seat and capital city undefended. Especially not since he has demonstrated how much he cares for the people of Dorne and Sunspear is the part of Dorne that has the largest amount of people.

The Dornish "navy" won't be able to defeat the Ironborn in battle but I believe that they'd be able to slow them down and prevent the complete destruction of Sunspear. Especially since they are already well-aware that there are pirates in the Stepstones,

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This is also a target that is going to make sense for Euron militarily. I expect him to not know about Aegon ... meaning he will be furious to learn that there is another Targaryen pretender who is about to take the Iron Throne. And when he learns Dorne is supporting them he will strike at them because they are easily reached and pretty defenseless.

He could also attack Starfall now that I think of it. Perhaps that's how Areo's story is eventually going to intersect with another?

That's a good point and I'm glad you brought it up.

Dorne is not going to immediately make common cause with Aegon. Arianne, while she is NOT her father, is definitely notCersei nor is she the same person Sansa was in A Game of Thrones or A Clash of Kings. She is not going to be falling head over heels for Aegon; she's going to deal with this situation quietly and carefully.

So, Dornish involvement in Aegon's campaign will be a secret for a little while.

Once Dorne is forced to come out of the closet on behalf of Aegon, that is when we will see all hell break loose. Not only will Euron be furious but you're also bound to outrage the lords of the Reach and the West (but especially the Reach)

Until then...Euron will proceed business as usual and occupy his men with the lands of the Hightowers, the Redwynes and the Costaynes.

 

His Ironborn will see him work magic to crush the Redwynes. They will worship him as a god-king after that, especially if the magic he works is going to be visibly very impressive - say, Euron creating a tornado above the

Silence and then sending it directly against the Redwynes, or him clearly calling up an army of giant krakens drawing ships into the deep -, not to mention afterwards he will give them the entire Arbor and the riches that are to be had there. They will fear and worship and love Euron since he effectively gives all the spoils he captures away.

I 100% agree with you.

However, it is worth mentioning that when Euron does it once, he will expected to do so again. It's what I call the Melisandre Dilemma. Once you reveal you have magic powers, people will expect you to use said magic powers ad nauseum.

[BlackLightning]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, KL is a harbor city. It can be attacked by an armada, the city can be stormed and sacked, and the castle taken, and the king inside can be killed.

If Euron ever sits the Iron Throne, I think he will capture the city while the monarch there is away on a campaign, but it is also imaginable that Aegon is there but it is a surprise attack and he simply doesn't have enough men in the city to repel it. Then he might be killed, captured, or barely escape with his life (Varys certainly would get him out if the Red Keep was falling).

I think that it will be a surprise attack.

I think that King's Landing will be surprised attacked on two fronts: on land by lions and from the sea by krakens. So, yeah, I don't see Euron making a direct move on the Iron Throne and King's Landing until he allies himself with Cersei Lannister. Which can't happen (for a bunch of reasons) until A Dream of Spring.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, it will be interesting to see what those Dornish army will be doing. The one in the Prince's Pass is indeed a wildcard, the one in the Boneway could join Aegon in time for his first battle with the Tyrells ... or join him thereafter when they take KL.

The idea of Prince's Pass army attacking the Reach could make sense if it turned out that the Tyrells were actually going to resist Aegon's rise even after Aegon beats them at Storm's End. That might work if either Tommen or Myrcella are going to be spirited away by Mace Tyrell. I never considered such a scenario before but the idea of perhaps one of Cersei's children dying in the very new future in KL and the other being taking from her and becoming a complete pawn of the Tyrells could be an interesting plot.

Now you're speaking my language.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Such a scenario could be where Tommen and Margaery flee the city to Highgarden before Aegon can capture them, or a scenario where Myrcella is taken to Highgarden to marry Willas Tyrell there (a match Kevan expects Mace to eventually suggest in the Epilogue). A Queen Myrcella with a Tyrell king consort could be a massive pain in the ass for Aegon and anyone else simply due to the many men the Tyrells can muster - even if a considerable number of their men were to join Aegon.

And while Myrcella liked Arianne pretty much in Dorne, we don't know how she actually feels about have lost part of her face thanks to her. She confirmed the tale Arianne and Doran wanted her to tell, but that is going to change should she get back to KL. And if Arianne ends up as Aegon's queen Myrcella might like that even less. Unlike Tommen, she is a smart and forceful girl in AFfC.

No. No way. Ain't no way.

There is absolutely no way that Cersei Lannister, our Cersei Lannister, will allow Myrcella to be married to Willas Tyrell. No way. It can't be done. For many reasons.

For one, Myrcella is still betrothed to Trystane Martell. To break that betrothal would destroy the alliance with House Martell but it would also drive Dorne to revolt. Everyone in Dorne would be livid.

But yes, there's no guarantee that Myrcella is going to be cool with Arianne. And Myrcella takes after her uncle and her grandfather in terms of intelligence and willfulness. But it's going to take a lot for Myrcella to turn on Arianne and Dorne. Not to say that it won't happen (I'm sure it will) but I think that it will be after Tommen's death and too late in the game for anything to be done.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is very unlikely. But, of course, still possible.

Oh stop it. It is not that unlikely.

GRRM has deliberately been distancing Sansa from all things southern since the end of A Game of Thrones. Sansa's story is taking her north. While she may not end up in Winterfell, she will be closely working with her family and the northern nobility by the end of the series.

Especially since we know for a fact that the Gates of the Moon has an actual godswood with an actual weirwood tree. I foresee that the outcome of a conversation between Bran and Sansa is going to be the beginning of the end Sansa's relationship with Littlefinger.

Oh and by the way, let Sansa figure out that the Lannisters had custody of "Arya Stark" the entire time. Let her find out that she was married to Ramsay Bolton (like Sansa) and had been brutalized (unlike Sansa). Oh and let it her figure out that Littlefinger was the one who had custody of "Arya" and arranged everything.

It will all sound familiar because she will then remember what Lysa was screaming and what Littlefinger did in response. When it all comes together, Sansa is going to lose her shit.

And no, it won't be hard for her to figure out. Sansa isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer but she can read. And she has gone into Littlefinger's solar and looked at the papers on his desk.

Once Myranda runs her mouth about Arya Stark and gets the ball rolling, it'll only be a matter of time.

Sansa doesn't even really want to marry Ser Harry and marrying Ser Harry actually benefits her in more than just one way. Marrying Aegon does not benefit Sansa in the least and it actually puts Sansa back in the political clusterf*ck that King's Landing. She doesn't want that.

Sansa is going home. I don't see her having anything to do with anything south of Riverrun until the North is completely destroyed/overrun and Jon Snow is acknowledged as the son of Prince Rhaegar and Lady Lyanna....so pretty much damn near the end of A Dream of Spring.

[BlackLightning]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There are many unknowns there, but I think we can expect the promised prince story to eventually figure into the Aegon plot since Rhaegar believed he was that guy. In that sense, Aegon will try to be him, and that, in turn, indicates he will concern himself with things in the North eventually. When exactly he will have time for that is completely impossible to even guess at since that depends on what happens and what he learns about what happens at other places at what time.

The crucial one at first will only be Mace - and he/his people certainly would bend the knee if Mace died in battle or was captured by Aegon. If a lot of men in Mace's army would refuse to fight a Targaryen or defected to his side, we should also expect this to push him into a certain direction.

And in any case - if Aegon really crushes the Tyrell army (and quickly takes the Iron Throne) then this certainly is going to give Highgarden (i.e. Willas, Olenna, Alerie, the uncles, etc.) pause. They have the Ironborn problem already, they would not immediately raise another army, especially not if things with Margaery and Tommen get even more problematic. They would wait and either do nothing or only involve themselves when they have to (i.e. if Margaery/Mace were to return to Highgarden with Tommen or Myrcella in tow).

Forget that Dragonstone plot from the show. Nobody is going to bother much with that island. Sure, both Aegon and Dany might go there because it is the place of their ancestors (and to be honest, I'd very much like a Loras POV on Dragonstone in TWoW because I really like the place and think it is going to become important as a place later in the series eventually, delivering on the eerie atmosphere we got in the Cressen Prologue), but this is not going to be a military command center. The show plot with Dany and Cersei on Dragonstone/KL is them ripping of the historical Dance, not the future story in the books - at least that's my take on that.

While yeah, I do think that Aegon will start fancying himself as Azor Ahai and/or the Prince that Was Promised. But I think he'd get a lot of pushback from the people around him, mainly Varys who hates all magic and JonCon who saw what prophecies did to Rhaegar.

I don't know. I really do think that Dany will take Dragonstone. I don't think it makes sense for her to make it THE military headquarters (she is not going to have THAT kind of navy and she doesn't have an full air force) of her entire operation but it does make sense for her to both make it a very important outpost -- I fully expect her to both blockade King's Landing and import more supplies and men from Essos -- and spend quite a bunch of time there.

Dragonstone being an island does offer a lot of protection from enemy armies, spies, ordinary assassins and the Others...while still leaving it vulnerable to naval opponents (Euron), sea monsters (Deep Ones who probably will ally themselves with or be controlled by Euron) and Faceless Men (who will either be operating independently or for someone else).

Dragonstone also has the amenities to house and entertain a full-sized court (Dany is definitely coming over with her own court).

Plus Dany is very sentimental and homespun; she won't be able to resist the allure of Dragonstone and she won't really want to resist it either. And the eerie reputation of Dragonstone only gives her enemies more cause to fear or resent her.

I don't think Aegon will bother with Dragonstone. Not only is he not sentimental and homespun but if there's any Targaryen seat that he'll spend a protracted amount a time at other than the Red Keep, it would be Summerhall.

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, Morte said:

I actually don't see Aegon being involved in the plot North, because he hasn't anyone within his group, nor within his potential allies who does believe in the threat of the Others. It might be he will march North later, after the Wall came down and Dany has already landed, but is moving north instead of south to meet him.

I don't see that happening quickly idea, but if we were to assume Stannis were to die quickly, and Jon Snow became the sort of leader up there, and learned who he actually was ... then it might make some sense that he would want to reach out to his half-brother down in the south, and Aegon might actually be interested in getting to know this long-lost half-brother, too.

Not that I think this is very likely, but a scenario that has some plausibility and potential for an interesting narrative.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

Also the informations from north of the Neck will come more spare now with Winter, so he might have a disadvantage here, compared to Dany and her magicians.

Haldon is gathering a lot of information already, and one expects that Varys is going to follow the situation in the North, too. But of course it is very unlikely that they are going to want to start another war up there ... unless things were going to go as smoothly in the south as @Aldarion seem to expect. But that is not very likely.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

I agree here completely. While I do think Dany will land here with a part of her fleet, because it's her ancestral seat (and she was born there) and because Marwyn at al. will most likely tell her to go there because of the dragon glass and other magical items they need, I don't think Aegon will bother as long as he has other places to secure; for him it's just a rock while his campaign isn't finished yet, or does he have ships to reach it (yet). If he takes KL it might be enough for him to get a raven telling him that Dragonstone is also his now, while he is dealing with the more urgent matters of the wasteland-kingdom.

I'm pretty sure Dany will do the smart thing and take KL when she lands in Westeros - or at least try to do that. That this will work would be a given if a significant part of her host would move to Westeros by means of Pentos - which is just across the Narrow Sea from KL. If she were to conquer Pentos, seize all the ships there, she could land with tens of thousands of men easily enough and take her throne.

All that would then remain would then is to clean up because we cannot expect there to be many lords around who would actually raise new armies just to get rid of her in the middle of winter. That would be unrealistic nonsense.

What might complicate that scenario is if Aegon isn't there at this time ... and if the other part of her armada would suffer major losses on the way from Qarth/Slaver's Bay/Volantis. If a magical storm of Euron's or something like that scattered most of her surviving ships so they land at very different points of the continent her movement could lose steam.

But since it stands to reason that she would not take all her Dothraki (and not necessarily all her other people) by ship along the southern coast of Essos, but the land road up to Myr and Pentos, she still could get massive forces across the Narrow Sea without much difficulty.

Dragonstone is going to be a place she might visit, just as Aegon likely will, but it is not a place where she is going to linger. It could not even house her massive army.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

Concerning Dany: She will land there and most likely find things hidden away in secret, magically sealed passages (no way for Kevan's musing about the stronghold being unimportant), but imho her main forces will land at the Saltpens (her armada will be way to big to be able to land in any harbour in Westeros, and the Longships can be dragged on land here). And of course we have the Chekhov's castle big enough for Dany's army with the convenient communication-hub for Bloodraven and Bran sitting just next to the Saltpens. So my guess is that Dany's command centre will be Harrenhall, as Hastings might simply go over to her the moment she starts giving out provisions to the small-folk of the Riverlands.

Again, I'm sure she is going to go for the big price - KL itself. Unless there were for some kind of reason a very powerful defensive force stationed there, say, Euron's fleet controling Blackwater Bay, a very powerful Lannister host in the city, that kind of thing.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

You are not alone!

If Dany starts making the preparations for going to Westeros at the end of TWoW a Loras-Epilogue with him waiting what the winter-storms might bring on Dragonstone would make an interesting transition.

Oh, my idea was more about Loras being a regular POV and him eventually returning from Dragonstone to KL or Highgarden. I want a Tyrell POV, and I'd like to know what's going on on Dragonstone right now.

7 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Vikings generally ignored well-defended cities, let alone well-defended castles. When they did sack fortified cities, they did it by exploiting chaos that left said cities undefended. Norman attack on fortified city of Rab in Croatia was a failure.

The Ironborn are not vikings, and Euron doesn't think or act small. The old kings of the Ironborn ruled the shores of Westeros from Bear Island to the Arbor - and Euron effectively has all the Ironborn under his command. They should be able to take a single castle even if their king wasn't a sorcerer.

7 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Of course, a lot will depend on exact situation. It is unlikely Sunspear is defenseless - even moderately wealthy cities will have had militias, which (I hope) Martin will have been aware of. These militias were often useless in battles on open field, but could be very good in defending cities - and well-trained militias could actually stand up to many regular armies on open field, if properly led. But even so, there is always a possibility of treachery, magic etc.

Sunspear is just a castle, not a city. And the shadow town lies outside the protective castle walls. It should be quickly overwhelmed. Note the idea is not that Euron takes Sunspear to hold it or conquer Dornish territory - he would go in there to destroy and, if possible, Arianne's father and younger brother.

Of course the setting might work even better if Doran were to remove himself and Trystane back to the Water Gardens. There they would be completely unprotected.

Insofar as Aegon is concerned - I expect much of the shortcomings of Dany's from the show actually to be his. Dany learns valuable lessons in a trial-and-error way - but Aegon will have to much success too soon/too easy, and then he will be faced by challenges he cannot really cope with - sorcerers, undead monsters, a plague spread by his Hand and foster father, financial problems, food problems, general lawlessness, etc.

There is no chance that he is going to seen as a king bringing peace and prosperity. People will want to believe that while he is taking the throne ... and for 1-2 months afterwards, but they should sober up pretty quickly. This is likely going to go like the False Dawn or the Conquest of Dorne - a short period of success after everything is going to come tumbling down.

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Or against the return of Daenerys Targaryen. 

In fact, Euron might have the capabilities to do something about that. He has hundreds of ships and he might gain more still.

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Euron Greyjoy is no fool. He will not put all his eggs in the basket(case) that is Victarion. He will be preparing for the possibilities that Victarion either comes back alone, Victarion comes back with Daenerys as an unwilling captive, Daenerys comes without Victarion, etc.

He won't be totally unprepared in regards to Daenerys or Victarion.

I expect he already had a plan in motion to neutralize Vic (the dusky woman) - something that's not going to work now that Moqorro is there.

And I don't think he has detailed plans yet for the time when Dany is there - for the time being he will crush the Redwynes and then take their island. After that he should know about Aegon and will include him into his plans.

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

What I do expect is for Euron to be caught off guard by Aegon. Or, at least, be forced to throw something together at the last minute because of Aegon.

How could Aegon as such catch Euron off guard? His existence and success, yes, but nothing that Aegon is going to do should affect Euron directly. They are thousands of leagues apart.

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I also expect that Euron's men will push him to make landfall on the mainland and put pressure on House Hightower...and for good reason.

Once the Redwynes are destroyed there will be no need for that. The Hightowers will yield. There will be no need to invade their lands. And plunder should be to be had on the Arbor - a place Euron can ravage all day long since they are completely helpless once their fleet is destroyed.

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Why do you think Sunspear is defenseless?!

First of all, the fact that Doran Martell felt like he could hide an armada loyal to Daenerys Targaryen in the Greenblood suggests that Dorne has a degree of naval power. You can't hide a fleet (or part of a fleet) of ships if you have no similar ships of your own. Anyone with a brain will find it alarmingly suspicious that you have no real ships with any military capacity one day and then you have a bunch of battle-ready ships on standby the next day.

Doran Martell is much too careful to make a boneheaded mistake. Besides, he uses "the grass hides the snake" analogy a lot.

Second of all, Doran Martell -- again -- is much too careful to leave Sunspear unguarded and defenseless. What with the civil unrest there, I fully expect that there are soldiers stationed in Sunspear.

Doran Martell is no idiot. I don't believe that he would put all of his power in the Red Mountains and leave his seat and capital city undefended. Especially not since he has demonstrated how much he cares for the people of Dorne and Sunspear is the part of Dorne that has the largest amount of people.

The Dornish "navy" won't be able to defeat the Ironborn in battle but I believe that they'd be able to slow them down and prevent the complete destruction of Sunspear. Especially since they are already well-aware that there are pirates in the Stepstones,

Oh, there certainly are men-at-arms at Sunspear, but certainly not enough to counter an attack by a couple of thousand Ironborn. And with two thirds of Dorne's strength far away the potential to call in fresh troops to end a siege of Sunspear and throw the Ironborn back into the sea would be pretty limited.

If Euron came in in a stormy night and attacked Sunspear when nobody was expecting him he could get his troops inside the castle before they could mount a coherent defense. Doran Martell doesn't expect such an attack at this point.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I think that it will be a surprise attack.

I think that King's Landing will be surprised attacked on two fronts: on land by lions and from the sea by krakens. So, yeah, I don't see Euron making a direct move on the Iron Throne and King's Landing until he allies himself with Cersei Lannister. Which can't happen (for a bunch of reasons) until A Dream of Spring.

To be sure, that's something for later, although I'd expect Aegon to be occupied in the West while Euron might sweep in with his ships and take KL.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

There is absolutely no way that Cersei Lannister, our Cersei Lannister, will allow Myrcella to be married to Willas Tyrell. No way. It can't be done. For many reasons.

For one, Myrcella is still betrothed to Trystane Martell. To break that betrothal would destroy the alliance with House Martell but it would also drive Dorne to revolt. Everyone in Dorne would be livid.

The idea is that this would be done after the Trystane betrothal is over ... and nobody would ask Cersei. The Tyrells are not going to involve Cersei in their government. And Tommen's government is run by them, now. They will decide what happens, and Cersei won't even be consulted.

And, you know, the Trystane betrothal will be over as soon as anybody in Tommen's government will learn that Arianne Martell wanted Myrcella to fight Tommen and is responsible for her disfigurement and near death. Which should come out if/when Myrcella arrives at KL and is handed over to Tommen's people.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

GRRM has deliberately been distancing Sansa from all things southern since the end of A Game of Thrones. Sansa's story is taking her north. While she may not end up in Winterfell, she will be closely working with her family and the northern nobility by the end of the series.

Especially since we know for a fact that the Gates of the Moon has an actual godswood with an actual weirwood tree. I foresee that the outcome of a conversation between Bran and Sansa is going to be the beginning of the end Sansa's relationship with Littlefinger.

Oh and by the way, let Sansa figure out that the Lannisters had custody of "Arya Stark" the entire time. Let her find out that she was married to Ramsay Bolton (like Sansa) and had been brutalized (unlike Sansa). Oh and let it her figure out that Littlefinger was the one who had custody of "Arya" and arranged everything.

It will all sound familiar because she will then remember what Lysa was screaming and what Littlefinger did in response. When it all comes together, Sansa is going to lose her shit.

And no, it won't be hard for her to figure out. Sansa isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer but she can read. And she has gone into Littlefinger's solar and looked at the papers on his desk.

Once Myranda runs her mouth about Arya Stark and gets the ball rolling, it'll only be a matter of time.

Sansa doesn't even really want to marry Ser Harry and marrying Ser Harry actually benefits her in more than just one way. Marrying Aegon does not benefit Sansa in the least and it actually puts Sansa back in the political clusterf*ck that King's Landing. She doesn't want that.

Sansa is going home. I don't see her having anything to do with anything south of Riverrun until the North is completely destroyed/overrun and Jon Snow is acknowledged as the son of Prince Rhaegar and Lady Lyanna....so pretty much damn near the end of A Dream of Spring.

Nothing of that convinces me. Sansa is learning how to play the game of thrones - and you can't play that all that well in the North in the middle of snow and a land without a proper army. At court you could. And while I agree that she certainly wants Winterfell, the road to Winterfell goes by way of King's Landing - because the Lannisters and Tyrells have to be destroyed/ousted from power for Sansa to be safe again. It wouldn't do if she became Lady of Winterfell and still ends being executed a kingslayer some years later by Tommen's or Myrcella's people.

And the overall plot really doesn't need Sansa in the North. There is Jon there and Stannis and perhaps Rickon soon, too.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

While yeah, I do think that Aegon will start fancying himself as Azor Ahai and/or the Prince that Was Promised. But I think he'd get a lot of pushback from the people around him, mainly Varys who hates all magic and JonCon who saw what prophecies did to Rhaegar.

Varys may hate magic, but using prophecies to play up his king certainly is something he would do. And it is the same with Connington who may believe that Aegon as Rhaegar's son does what his father thought he would do.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't know. I really do think that Dany will take Dragonstone. I don't think it makes sense for her to make it THE military headquarters (she is not going to have THAT kind of navy and she doesn't have an full air force) of her entire operation but it does make sense for her to both make it a very important outpost -- I fully expect her to both blockade King's Landing and import more supplies and men from Essos -- and spend quite a bunch of time there.

She can just skip all that nonsense and just take KL and the Iron Throne.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't think Aegon will bother with Dragonstone. Not only is he not sentimental and homespun but if there's any Targaryen seat that he'll spend a protracted amount a time at other than the Red Keep, it would be Summerhall.

He is not going to have to conquer it. Once he sits the Iron Throne the Lords of the Narrow Sea will bend the knee to him, and he will take a couple of men over there to take possession of the ancestral stronghold. Loras or whoever is not going to hold Dragonstone against a Targaryen.

[Aldarion]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Ironborn are not vikings, and Euron doesn't think or act small. The old kings of the Ironborn ruled the shores of Westeros from Bear Island to the Arbor - and Euron effectively has all the Ironborn under his command. They should be able to take a single castle even if their king wasn't a sorcerer.

 

Ironborn are Vikings. And if Euron thinks large, he will end up destroying his forces.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sunspear is just a castle, not a city. And the shadow town lies outside the protective castle walls. It should be quickly overwhelmed. Note the idea is not that Euron takes Sunspear to hold it or conquer Dornish territory - he would go in there to destroy and, if possible, Arianne's father and younger brother.

Of course the setting might work even better if Doran were to remove himself and Trystane back to the Water Gardens. There they would be completely unprotected.

Insofar as Aegon is concerned - I expect much of the shortcomings of Dany's from the show actually to be his. Dany learns valuable lessons in a trial-and-error way - but Aegon will have to much success too soon/too easy, and then he will be faced by challenges he cannot really cope with - sorcerers, undead monsters, a plague spread by his Hand and foster father, financial problems, food problems, general lawlessness, etc.

There is no chance that he is going to seen as a king bringing peace and prosperity. People will want to believe that while he is taking the throne ... and for 1-2 months afterwards, but they should sober up pretty quickly. This is likely going to go like the False Dawn or the Conquest of Dorne - a short period of success after everything is going to come tumbling down.

The only way Doran and Trystane could be killed by Euron is if they were to go to Water Gardens. Sunspear may be devastated by Ironborn, but castle - if properly manned - should be more or less impregnable.

Trial-and-error way is the worst way of learning things. Yeah, it is rather unlikely Aegon will be prepared to deal with that sort of stuff. But neither will Daenerys - while she does have valuable experience, that experience is from a completely different society and different context. Some of it will be useful, some of it will be useless, and some of it will be outright disadvantageous and will lead her down the wrong path.

The only hope for peace and prosperity would likely be if Aegon and Daenerys worked together... and also had some half-dozen reliable advisors.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

On hint-side it did sound like I was talking about using them simultaneously, but what I meant was - they were available and were used (because we have them on Graves and in the strata). And we have finding from both eastern as well as western legion camps (from the Principate), so it wasn't a thing only used in the East. However, the hasta was quite out of use in the very Late Republic, so Caesar's legionaries most likely really hadn't any lances with them against Pompeius. The change in the Early Principate can of course be attributed to Carrhae, or the Parthians in general. But I also don't think they could switch easily on the field, but that depending on the foe, a number of legionaries would be equipped with lances from the start, so if you don't have any momentary "hastatii", you have to work with what you have.

Yeah, that is likely.

13 hours ago, Morte said:

Just one thing: Sunspear is marked as a castle on the map, not as a city (as I noted before, Westeros has much too few cities for a continent the size of South America, even in the MA). Sunspear will still have a garrison though.

That is why I believe most castles are actually cities - we know that Winterfell has a town near/around it. Even disregarding that, being administrative and military centers, we would see the process very similar to Roman legionary fortresses, with settlement gradually forming up around the castle. So Sunspear definitely does have a town around it, but fact that it is marked as a castle would indicate that it has no city walls, and that castle is the only fortification present (in Middle Ages, cities were defined by the presence of city walls).

[Hodor the Articulate]

14 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I called him a potentially good king. I claimed he is a failure in a project of making an ideal king. Good =/= ideal.

Does the word "potential" really make a difference in the context of this discussion? Seems irrelevant to me, since you've already decided he will be a good king.

"If there is a point, then it is not that "anyone cannot be moulded into a good king", but that "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling." <-(emphasis, mine) This is what what you said before I brought up Varys' speech. We were strictly talking about "good kings" prior to this and there's no implication you meant he failed to be an ideal king.

14 hours ago, Aldarion said:

By actually bringing some kind of peace to Westeros. I doubt Martin will be able to thoroughly analyze "Aegon's tax policy" in space he will be able to give him, at least if he wants to wrap up his plot and bring Daenerys to Westeros in the next book (and that is assuming two more books - one for Aegon, one for Others). Keep in mind however that "some kind of peace" is relative - Westeros is very rarely actually at peace.

This doesn't really answer the question. We've had plenty of examples of kings who reigned over peaceful periods but were themselves incompetent rulers. Heck, Cersei could technically be a "good" Queen if reigning while there is "some kind of peace" were enough to convince readers.

14 hours ago, Aldarion said:

1) They are not going to disappear. But nobody except their immediate supporters is going to want them on the Iron Throne... or anywhere near it.

2a) Much of the realm has been at peace since the Battle of Blackwater thanks to Tywin. But Cersei will likely undo whole of Tywin's work - she has started doing that already, actually.

2b) Also, "no armies going at each other" =/= "peace". Bandits and pirates prosper during war in part because army is not available to suppress them - and also because many mercenaries ("sellswords") turn to banditry when employment is not available. In fact, both of first professional mobile armies in 15th century Europe - French Compagnies d'Ordonnance and Hungarian Black Army - were created when king decided to permanently employ mercenaries in order to a) increase royal authority and b) prevent said mercenaries from looting and pillaging during peacetime. But absent that, for many areas, end of war can mean increase in insecurity, as areas that had remained untouched by war so far attract various bandits. And Iron Throne currently does not have financial means to create a standing army.

1) If Cersei has supporters, they'll defend her against Aegon, which means he has start a war. A number of people who want to topple Cersei are also vying for the crown themselves, so he'll have to fight them too. There's no peace to be had.

2a) Whatever Cersei does, it will be at the same time that Aegon is fighting his way to KL. He'll either be disrupting peace or adding to existing battles, which is not giving anyone hope of peace.

2b) This weakens your own argument. If the state that Westeros is in now is not considered at peace, then neither will it be when Aegon takes over it.

[Aldarion]

20 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Does the word "potential" really make a difference in the context of this discussion? Seems irrelevant to me, since you've already decided he will be a good king.

"If there is a point, then it is not that "anyone cannot be moulded into a good king", but that "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling." <-(emphasis, mine) This is what what you said before I brought up Varys' speech. We were strictly talking about "good kings" prior to this and there's no implication you meant he failed to be an ideal king.

That is Aegon's "point of failure". Which doesn't mean he will fail, just that if he does, that will be the reason.

23 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Does the word "potential" really make a difference in the context of this discussion? Seems irrelevant to me, since you've already decided he will be a good king.

"If there is a point, then it is not that "anyone cannot be moulded into a good king", but that "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling." <-(emphasis, mine) This is what what you said before I brought up Varys' speech. We were strictly talking about "good kings" prior to this and there's no implication you meant he failed to be an ideal king.

That only happened if they inherited peace, though. Bringing peace to a warn-torn kingdom is something else.

23 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

1) If Cersei has supporters, they'll defend her against Aegon, which means he has start a war. A number of people who want to topple Cersei are also vying for the crown themselves, so he'll have to fight them too. There's no peace to be had.

2a) Whatever Cersei does, it will be at the same time that Aegon is fighting his way to KL. He'll either be disrupting peace or adding to existing battles, which is not giving anyone hope of peace.

2b) This weakens your own argument. If the state that Westeros is in now is not considered at peace, then neither will it be when Aegon takes over it.

And he doesn't need to bring peace as such. He only needs to be an improvement over existing situation. Fact is, he is someone new. That alone will be enough to bring him many supporters. Just take a look at how elections work in modern-day "democracies" - you have two parties (with absolutely no difference between them), and once people get fed up with one, all that is needed is switching figurehead and they get voters back. Aegon is a new face, and thus can count on support which many of existing lords will not be able to mobilize.

[Hodor the Articulate]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

That is Aegon's "point of failure". Which doesn't mean he will fail, just that if he does, that will be the reason.

So then is "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king" a theme or not?

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

That only happened if they inherited peace, though. Bringing peace to a warn-torn kingdom is something else.

Fine. Cersei (technically Joffrey and Tommen), Robert, and Aegon III all reigned during relatively peaceful periods after civil wars. We generally don't consider any of them good rulers. You're going to have to be more specific than "bring peace".

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And he doesn't need to bring peace as such. He only needs to be an improvement over existing situation. Fact is, he is someone new. That alone will be enough to bring him many supporters. Just take a look at how elections work in modern-day "democracies" - you have two parties (with absolutely no difference between them), and once people get fed up with one, all that is needed is switching figurehead and they get voters back. Aegon is a new face, and thus can count on support which many of existing lords will not be able to mobilize.

Wait, so now he doesn't need to bring peace??? Okay, let's go your new criteria... he's going to have to do at least a little battle* to take KL from Cersei. More deaths and disruption isn't an improvement.

Modern elections are even more irrelevant than irl history. I get you're making some sort of point about selection processes, but the people's considerations are completely different for modern elections and for Westeros. Legitimacy is a huge factor. This is why Robert got to be King instead of Jon Arryn or Tywin or anyone else. If novelty and promising improvement was all that mattered, literally anyone could be a king or a lord.

*he would have already done this to take Storm's End, so he's actually already broken peace.

[Morte]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, my idea was more about Loras being a regular POV and him eventually returning from Dragonstone to KL or Highgarden. I want a Tyrell POV, and I'd like to know what's going on on Dragonstone right now.

Oh, I would take Loras as a regular POV anytime! As you said: we don't have a Tyrell POV, and Loras would be a good choice, because he most likely didn't know about the Purple-Wedding-plot, so he would not fall into the "knows too much"-category out of which we don't get POVs.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm pretty sure Dany will do the smart thing and take KL when she lands in Westeros - or at least try to do that. That this will work would be a given if a significant part of her host would move to Westeros by means of Pentos - which is just across the Narrow Sea from KL. If she were to conquer Pentos, seize all the ships there, she could land with tens of thousands of men easily enough and take her throne.

[...]

Dragonstone is going to be a place she might visit, just as Aegon likely will, but it is not a place where she is going to linger. It could not even house her massive army.

Again, I'm sure she is going to go for the big price - KL itself. Unless there were for some kind of reason a very powerful defensive force stationed there, say, Euron's fleet controling Blackwater Bay, a very powerful Lannister host in the city, that kind of thing.

I think where Dany will land depends heavily on when she will land; if Martin doesn't butcher the Essos-plotlines, she might come to Westeros with KL and the Bay either being hold by Euron and his fleet (a possibility which would make her land somewhere else, as you said), or maybe even the city being reduced to smouldering ruins already.

On the other hand she and her advisers might go for taking the strategical position first, which would make Saltpens/Harrenhall plausible as a first target (beside visiting Dragonstone, but we all in this thread agree, that Dragonstone makes no fitting headquarters for any army, even less so for one as big as Dany's). But no matter where Dany starts in Westeros, I'm quite sure Harrenhall will become her armies headquarters.

And if Dany really comes late to the party, I think her main focus will lie with the Others. She will be aware of Aegon and will still have the Throne as a secondary focus, but with the people potentially ending on her side and her own Dragon Dreams, she might go on route with the "Stannis approach" - that the Throne can wait while humanity is at grave danger.

Oh, and I don't think Dany will take only Pentos, I think she must go to Volantis, if Martin wants to see her leaving Essos in trusting hands, as it seems to me that the anti-slavery-movement there is the only truly organized (beside Bravos).

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He is not going to have to conquer it. Once he sits the Iron Throne the Lords of the Narrow Sea will bend the knee to him, and he will take a couple of men over there to take possession of the ancestral stronghold. Loras or whoever is not going to hold Dragonstone against a Targaryen.

I don't think Aegon will set foot on the isle, I think he will be too occupied with the mainland and content with getting a raven telling him that Dragonstone is his, thinking that visiting Dragonstone can wait till his enemies are crushed (which will of course be a mistake).

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That is why I believe most castles are actually cities - we know that Winterfell has a town near/around it. Even disregarding that, being administrative and military centers, we would see the process very similar to Roman legionary fortresses, with settlement gradually forming up around the castle. So Sunspear definitely does have a town around it, but fact that it is marked as a castle would indicate that it has no city walls, and that castle is the only fortification present (in Middle Ages, cities were defined by the presence of city walls).

Actually - and that's, again, one on Martin - they aren't. There are towns around the castles, but they aren't even "proper" small towns like Maidenpool, but more villages outside the castles walls and with no walls themselves (as you said). In the real Middle Ages of course municipal rights were not reserved for big cities, we have a whole bunch of small towns with municipal rights shattered across Europe - but in Martin's world we don't even seem to have a full concept on municipal rights...

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

The only hope for peace and prosperity would likely be if Aegon and Daenerys worked together... and also had some half-dozen reliable advisors.

Well... why do we all think that this Dance has to have a similar (even if reversed) outcome as the first Dance? What if in this Dance the parties would decide to get their shit together because of the real threat in the end?