Picking Biden's Cabinet

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, DMC said:

As for the general point about the Chinese Ambassadorship as a springboard, I think the important thing for him is, again, it allows him to move to the top of the pile of CVs if/when UN opens up.  Since he clearly seems intent on rising in the diplomatic ranks (for whatever reason), going with the more prestigious as opposed to the potentially more substantive job aligns with his interests.

The last ambassadorship that was really much of a spring board was when Jefferson served in France. Of course he already had some rather lofty accomplishments before Paris. Or perhaps the last was Joe Kennedy in London - of course that helped JFK more than Joe himself.

On the serious side, it can be very important service, and that certainly includes being the US Ambassador to China. The job is mostly done in quiet settings that gets little real US media coverage. There are a few exceptions. Michael McFaul has been a presence on the MSNBC and other networks speaking out about Russia. But even that usually doesn't get someone much of a leg up to elective office. Great for actually learning the art of diplomacy, and looks great on a resume, but not much for building a public presence.

Of course, Pete is looking at this from his view from South Bend. His main problem is that his prospects in Indiana for a statewide office, particularly Governor, are not good. No doubt he wanted the UN job, but that's already gone. Nowadays that's the one real exception where people in the US see their ambassador doing the job. Nikki Haley did an effective job in promoting herself from that position and helping herself for a run at higher office. Won't get her through the primaries, but it did help.

If he thinks he has a chance, it would be better if he concentrated on a challenge for the Indiana US Senate in 2022. My gut tells me that's a long shot. But there are changes in and around Indianapolis. I don't know, and maybe you do know, just how dramatically the state leans Republican. I'm know I'm being lazy, but what does the Cook political report say?

Whatever he chooses to do, Buttigieg helped his political standing greatly with his failed presidential run and his endorsement of Biden. If nothing else he has a nationwide network of donors for whatever office he chooses to run for.

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The last ambassadorship that was really much of a spring board was when Jefferson served in France. Of course he already had some rather lofty accomplishments before Paris. Or perhaps the last was Joe Kennedy in London - of course that helped JFK more than Joe himself.

Heh, Jefferson is going back pretty far.  If we're going back to the ancients I'd argue John Quincy's diplomatic experience helped springboard him to his corrupt bargain of a presidency.  Somewhat more recently, George H.W.'s role as "Chief Liaison" to China certainly aided his (losing) role as the "establishment" consensus against Reagan in the 1980 GOP primary, as that Axios post alludes to.  As for Kennedy, I don't think his time spent at the Court of St. James's was particularly helpful to his sons' political careers, to put it mildly.

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

If he thinks he has a chance, it would be better if he concentrated on a challenge for the Indiana US Senate in 2022. My gut tells me that's a long shot. But there are changes in and around Indianapolis. I don't know, and maybe you do know, just how dramatically the state leans Republican. I'm know I'm being lazy, but what does the Cook political report say?

I don't think he has a chance at Young's seat in 2022.  If Evan Bayh was only able to get 42.4% in 2016 in Indiana, it'd be ridiculous for Buttigieg to think he has a chance against Young as an incumbent during a midterm with a Democratic president.  The state is still trending Republican.  Trump's margin of victory may have narrowed from 2016 to 2022, but he still got 57% of the vote in 2020 compared to 56.8% in 2016.  In the governor's race last month, the Democratic candidate (Woody Myers) received only 32.1% of the vote.  Now he was a (very) weak candidate to an incumbent, but that in and of itself should be an indication - less and less quality candidates are willing to be sacrificial lambs at the statewide level.

[SFDanny]

54 minutes ago, DMC said:

Heh, Jefferson is going back pretty far.  If we're going back to the ancients I'd argue John Quincy's diplomatic experience helped springboard him to his corrupt bargain of a presidency.  Somewhat more recently, George H.W.'s role as "Chief Liaison" to China certainly aided his (losing) role as the "establishment" consensus against Reagan in the 1980 GOP primary, as that Axios post alludes to.  As for Kennedy, I don't think his time spent at the Court of St. James's was particularly helpful to his sons' political careers, to put it mildly.

Yes, Jefferson was pretty far back, but he came back somewhat enhanced by his role in France. It was a sarcastic choice to illustrate the fact being an ambassador really, in most cases, doesn't help a political career much. It mostly is just a impressive thing to list on your job application when it comes to electoral politics. It can, however, be a way of learning some very important things for governance and understanding of the world..

The Joe Kennedy example is really just a jibe about how he used his time in London to promote himself. Many Americans got to know the Kennedy clan first through the newsreels of them in the UK. I wasn't meaning that Joe Kennedy was an example to follow.

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I don't think he has a chance at Young's seat in 2022.  If Evan Bayh was only able to get 42.4% in 2016 in Indiana, it'd be ridiculous for Buttigieg to think he has a chance against Young as an incumbent during a midterm with a Democratic president.  The state is still trending Republican.  Trump's margin of victory may have narrowed from 2016 to 2022, but he still got 57% of the vote in 2020 compared to 56.8% in 2016.  In the governor's race last month, the Democratic candidate (Woody Myers) received only 32.1% of the vote.  Now he was a (very) weak candidate to an incumbent, but that in and of itself should be an indication - less and less quality candidates are willing to be sacrificial lambs at the statewide level.

That's pretty much what I had guessed his prospects would be. Pete needs to get out of Indiana if he is going to climb much higher politically. Beijing may be his best option. It's a prestigious position even if people in the US will likely forget him while he is there.

[SFDanny]

Confirmation of some new members previously discussed, and some new names and at least one surprise for Veterans Affairs.

Director of Domestic Policy Council is a significant appointment, but it is hardly the Secretary of State. Which is where I thought going in Susan Rice would land. I don't understand giving Veteran's Affairs seat to an non-veteran. 

[SFDanny]

Updated List

Agriculture:  Tom Vilsack, Secretary nominee

Climate Czar: John Kerry, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, nominee

Commerce:  

Council of Economic Advisors: Celia Rouse, Council Chair nominee, Jared Bernstein, Member nominee, Heather Boushey, Member nominee

Defense: Lloyd Austin, Secretary nominee

Domestic Policy Council: Susan Rice, Director nominee

Education:  

Energy:  Jennifer Granholm, Secretary nominee

Environmental Protection Agency:  Michael S. Regan, nominee

Health and Human Services:  Xavier Becerra, Secretary nominee

Homeland Security:  Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary nominee

Housing and Urban Development:  Marcia Fudge, Secretary nominee

Interior: Deb Haaland, Secretary nominee

Labor:   

Justice:

National Economic Council: Brian Deese, Director nominee

Office of the Director of National Intelligence: Avril Haines, Director nominee

Office of Management and Budget:  Neera Tanden

Small Business Administration:

State:  Antony Blinken, Secretary nominee

Transportation: Pete Buttigieg, Secretary nominee

Treasury:  Janet Yellen, Secretary nominee, Wally Adeyemo, Deputy Secretary nominee

United States Mission to the United Nations:  Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Ambassador nominee

United States Trade Representative:  Kathrine Tai, nominee

Veterans Affairs:  Denis McDonough, Secretary nominee 

Chief of Staff:  Ron Klain 

National Security Advisor:  Jake Sullivan, nominee

 

[DMC]

10 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Director of Domestic Policy Council is a significant appointment, but it is hardly the Secretary of State. Which is where I thought going in Susan Rice would land. I don't understand giving Veteran's Affairs seat to an non-veteran. 

I gotta say I am shocked that Rice accepted that position and more than a little confused that Biden offered it.  The explanation I've seen - that she has extensive experience in interagency coordination and crisis management.  Fair enough I guess, and I'm confident she'll do a great job in spite of her basically null experience in domestic policy, but it's still just weird.  I'm a huge fan of hers though, so suppose I'm happy Biden found a (very interesting) roll for her, and her accepting may encourage Biden to man up and appoint her to a confirmable position if one opens up in the future.  Still, gotta be quite the whiplash to go from VP shortlist to DPC director.

I'm fine with McDonough at VA.  Perhaps it would've been better to appoint a veteran, but no one can dispute his administrative abilities.  And if you want someone as a proven bureaucratic cog to try to repair a perpetually ineffective and incompetent agency, you can't do much better.

[SFDanny]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

I gotta say I am shocked that Rice accepted that position and more than a little confused that Biden offered it.  The explanation I've seen - that she has extensive experience in interagency coordination and crisis management.  Fair enough I guess, and I'm confident she'll do a great job in spite of her basically null experience in domestic policy, but it's still just weird.  I'm a huge fan of hers though, so suppose I'm happy Biden found a (very interesting) roll for her, and her accepting may encourage Biden to man up and appoint her to a confirmable position if one opens up in the future.  Still, gotta be quite the whiplash to go from VP shortlist to DPC director.

I'm fine with McDonough at VA.  Perhaps it would've been better to appoint a veteran, but no one can dispute his administrative abilities.  And if you want someone as a proven bureaucratic cog to try to repair a perpetually ineffective and incompetent agency, you can't do much better.

I agree about Rice, and I hope you're right about McDonough. Somebody has to modernize the VA. And I don't mean privatize it.

I see Mary Nichols from California may be the new EPA director. Great rep.

[DireWolfSpirit]

So unless I missed it, we are still awaiting Biden's pick for the new Attorney General?

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So unless I missed it, we are still awaiting Biden's pick for the new Attorney General?

Yes.  It is pretty odd, but there are reports this Hunter investigation shit is causing delays now.  Which kinda makes sense I guess.  But, I suspect the bigger issue is there's gonna be a lot of backlash if he picks a white male, and other than Yates and maybe Patrick, it sounds like the top candidates are all white males.  My advice?  Just pick Yates and get it over with.

[SFDanny]

I'm reading reports that Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms turned down an offer for a place in the Cabinet. Given the rumors she was on the short list to be Small Business Administrator, that doesn't surprise me. The press release says what she was offered wasn't an Ambassadorship. Politically, the Mayor of Atlanta has a bigger profile than head of the SBA. To bad, I'd have liked to see her get a job in Biden's Administration. However, it does mean she will be around to play a role in the build up to the 2022 Georgia state races. She can be a powerful force to help get out new voters for Stacy Abrams expected run against Brian Kemp, round 2.

[SFDanny]

Two new Cabinet officers today in former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm as Secretary of Energy nominee, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg as the nominee for Secretary of Transportation. I will add their names to the post above.

[DMC]

So there's 8 Cabinet-level positions left.  5 Cabinet departments - AG, Labor, Interior, Commerce, Education - and 3 Cabinet-level - EPA, CIA, SBA.  I assume Biden wants to finish by Christmas, so that leaves six business days left for formal announcements.  Wonder how many will be at least leaked by Friday.

Also, saw this article on Cabinet diversity at 538.  I liked looking at their graphs depicting the gender of agency heads going back to Carter.  Interesting that Granholm will be only the second Secretary of Energy.  I'm also surprised Fudge will be only the second female Secretary of HUD.  Woulda thought there'd be more females at Education too - didn't realize neither Clinton nor Obama had a female there in 16 years.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

So there's 8 Cabinet-level positions left.  5 Cabinet departments - AG, Labor, Interior, Commerce, Education - and 3 Cabinet-level - EPA, CIA, SBA.  I assume Biden wants to finish by Christmas, so that leaves six business days left for formal announcements.  Wonder how many will be at least leaked by Friday.

Also, saw this article on Cabinet diversity at 538.  I liked looking at their graphs depicting the gender of agency heads going back to Carter.  Interesting that Granholm will be only the second Secretary of Energy.  I'm also surprised Fudge will be only the second female Secretary of HUD.  Woulda thought there'd be more females at Education too - didn't realize neither Clinton nor Obama had a female there in 16 years.

The bar has been set by Trudeau and Macron. Biden must have at least as many women as men in the Cabinet. It looks like he may well do that. I'm still looking for who will be the Secretary of the Interior. Holding out hope for Deb Haaland. I see Gina McCarthy has been appointed to the new U.S. Climate Czar, which means she will head the Office of Domestic Climate Policy, a brand new position, I believe. I've given up trying to read the tea leaves about who will get the AG nod.

It also looks like Steny Hoyer and others are trying to stop the Haaland nomination on the grounds Biden can't keep picking Democratic Representatives and endangering the majority in the House. The seat seems secure to me, but I don't know New Mexico politics. This article from Bloomberg speaks about it. Also it mentions Mary Nichols is out as head of EPA. While it doesn't say why, I've read that many environmental organizations representing people of color objected to her consideration. Can't say I know the details of that.

 

[DMC]

34 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Biden must have at least as many women as men in the Cabinet. It looks like he may well do that.

Yeah I think he'll at least be very close.  Right now he's at 9-9.  EPA and Education are very likely to go to women, so that just leave two of the remaining six.  Hell, if he followed my advice on the remaining picks, Labor, Interior, Education, Commerce, and EPA would all be female.  You're welcome Joe!

34 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I see Gina McCarthy has been appointed to the new U.S. Climate Czar, which means she will head the Office of Domestic Climate Policy, a brand new position, I believe.

McCarthy's new title and office are within the WHO.  While they are both brand new, they are not much different than Carol Browner's short-lived position as the director of Obama's WH Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy.  (Incidentally, Browner was previously Clinton's EPA chief just as McCarthy was Obama's.)  John Podesta also served as something of an unofficial climate czar under Obama.  Anyway, point is I do not expect Biden to elevate that position to Cabinet-level.  It'd be kinda weird to make two Cabinet-level climate change-oriented positions at once.

[SFDanny]

@DMC, just curious. Do you think Biden will pick a Republican to one of the position still vacant? I can see that happening as Commerce Secretary or head of SBA, but I can't think of any other place were he could put his token Republican. Not that I'm in the least bit enthusiastic about it, but it still looks like Meg Whitman may be the new Commerce Secretary. I was kind of hoping it would be Mellody Hobson. Too much to ask?

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Do you think Biden will pick a Republican to one of the position still vacant? I can see that happening as Commerce Secretary

Well, that certainly seems to be what Axios thinks.  I'd obviously prefer Hobson - or Ursula Barnes - as well.  Considering he apparently offered Lance Bottoms SBA it seems he actually values that position, so doubt it goes to a Republican.  Seems like it's the same as it's been for over a month now - Whitman at Commerce or nothing.  As I've said repeatedly, I don't see much point in appointing a Republican - especially one such as Whitman who's not gonna gain you any goodwill with the current GOP (in office and in the electorate) anyway - but I also don't care much.

Also, appears I was wrong about EPA "very likely" going to a woman.  Looks like Mary Nichols has fallen out of favor, and apparently Michael Regan is on the verge of being names.  This article identifies a couple other (male) candidates.  I'd still prefer McTeer Toney based on her experience.

[Fragile Bird]

I was hearing Judge Merrick Garland as being on the short list for AG.

[DMC]

23 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I was hearing Judge Merrick Garland as being on the short list for AG.

He's been reported to be for awhile now.  I don't really get it other than some roundabout way to force the GOP Senate to finally vote on his confirmation.  Would seem a decidedly odd choice.  Alternatively, it's just the honor of being on the short list as an apology/thank you for going through all that bullshit.

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

He's been reported to be for awhile now.  I don't really get it other than some roundabout way to force the GOP Senate to finally vote on his confirmation.  Would seem a decidedly odd choice.  Alternatively, it's just the honor of being on the short list as an apology/thank you for going through all that bullshit.

Garland's appointment would open a seat on the D.C. circuit that could be filled by a youngish judge - very difficult to tell if senate confirmation would ensue.  Swapping out old liberals for new liberals when the circs permit it is important (see RBG) but these may not be the right circs.  I think Garland and Jones both get confirmed.  

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Swapping out old liberals for new liberals when the circs permit it is important (see RBG) but these may not be the right circs.

I do not think this should be a consideration in choosing one's AG.  Besides, Garland isn't even that old relatively speaking.  He's the 9th oldest out of 16 on the DC Circuit.  (He's also pretty much exactly my parents' age, right in between, so I don't really like to think about the fact he should be replaced soon.)  And as you said, if the GOP retains the Senate it's much more likely you're simply leaving a vacancy there for the time being rather than replacing the justice.