Brainstorming a Robert's Rebellion Timeline

[Mister Smikes]

I don't know if anyone ever succeeded in constructing a coherent timeline for Robert's Rebellion, so I decided to try my own hand at it.  

I'm going to start editing this in response to feedback.  The edits are in bold.

Most of the dates in the timeline below are arbitrary in the sense of being chosen by me.   Obviously, I do not know the precise day, the precise week, or even the precise month when a particular event occurred.  However, the dates are not completely arbitrary, in the sense that the need to coordinate these events with each other and the information found in the book ends up severely limiting the dates I can choose.  

However, though precise dates will of course not match, what I have below could plausibly be something that bears a close resemblance to whatever private Robert's Rebellion timeline (if any) GRRM may be maintaining for his own private use.

Or maybe not.  The purpose of this thread is to brainstorm, and I asking those here to scrutinize it for anything that cannot be reconciled with canon sources.

Also, it is possible that other timelines significantly different from the one below, can also be constructed, that match evidence from canon sources as well or even better.  This is an issue I would also like to explore, and I invite anyone to post alternatives timelines, rearranging and redating the events as appropriate.

I have not tried to make the timeline below match any particular fan theory.  Indeed there are some things below that, at first glance at least, seem inconsistent with R+L=J, though IMHO they could on closer examination perhaps be reconciled.  Anyone who thinks they can re-arrange or redate the timeline to make it more "convenient" (shall we say) to standard R+L=J assumptions is welcome to the challenge.

I have not tried to exhaustively "show my work", and I apologize for my laziness.  Nonetheless, I have placed a few explanatory comments (not exhaustive) after the timeline, explaining a few of the considerations I used in constructing it.  

279-03-01    Betrothal of Rhaegar and Elia

279-11-13    When Rhaenys was conceived (if she is was not premature).

280-01-01    Wedding of Rhaegar and Elia, in King's Landing

280-08-07    Birth of Rhaenys, to Rhaegar & Elia, on Dragonstone    

280-12-01    Lord Whent announces tourney at Harrenhal

281-02-01    Elia, bedridden for (about) 6 months, finally recovers.

281-02-01    Comet seen over King's Landing.

281-04-01    Rhaegar presents Rhaenys to Aerys & Rhaella in King's Landing

281-10-01    Birth of Aegon to Elia; she nearly dies.

281-10-24    Beginning of False Spring

281-11-20    Start of Tourney at Harrenhal

281-11-30    End of Tourney at Harrenal.  Elia is present.

281-12-24    End of False Spring; Winter returns with a Vengeance

281-12-31    Beginning of Snowstorm at King's Landing

282-01-01    Rhaegar leaves King's Landing.

282-01-02    Start of wildires at the Red Keep.  Rhaegar is gone.

282-01-14    End of Snowstorm at King's Landing

282-02-01    End of wildfires at the Red Keep.

282-02-15    Abduction of Lyanna near Harrenhal

282-04-01    Brandon Stark, et al., imprisoned.

282-05-01    Hoster forces Lysa to abort.  

282-05-01    Lord Dustin marries Barbrey.

282-06-01    Rickard Stark et al. executed by Aerys

282-08-01    Jon Arryn raises his banners in revolt.

282-08-15    Approximate birth date of any hypothetical child conceived at Harrehnal.

282-09-01    Eddard sneaks across the Bite with fisherman's daughter.

282-09-07    Battle of Gulltown

282-09-15    Owen Merryweather sends letters to the Lords declaring Jon Arryn, Ned Stark, and Robert Barratheon outlaws.

282-10-01    Robert reaches Storm's End; raises banners.

282-10-01    Ned reaches Winterfell; raises his banners.

282-10-15    Battle of Summerhall

282-10-21    Owen Merryweather dismissed as Hand; Connington appointed.

282-11-07    Battle of the Bells

282-11-21    Joint Wedding of the Tully Sisters

282-12-01    Battle of Ashford

282-12-05    Ned leaves Catelyn at Riverrun

283-01-01    Beginning of siege of Storms End.

283-05-01    Rhaegar comes out of the South.

283-06-07    Supposed birth date and name-day of Jon Snow.

283-06-15    Battle of the Trident

283-08-01    Birth of Robb Stark at River-run.

283-08-15    Sack of Kings Landing

283-08-16    2nd day of Sack.  Elia & babes murdered; Arrival of Ned.

283-08-17    Robert arrives at King's Landing.  Tywin presents dead babes.

283-08-17    Ned leaves King's Landing to take Army South

283-11-10    Riverrun receives news that Ned fathered a bastard on campaign.

283-11-15    Eddard lifts the siege of Storm's End.

284-01-15    Tower of Joy incident.

284-03-01    Eddard visits Starfall

284-05-10    Rhaella gives birth to a daughter on Dragonstone.

284-05-12    Death of Rhaella.

284-05-17    Darry escapes Dragonstone with Viserys and the baby.

284-05-18    Stannis sails for Dragonstone with the Royal Fleet.

284-06-01    Ned passes through Barrowtown with Lyanna's bones and Dustin's horse.

284-06-15    Dragonstone surrenders.  The "wars" are over at last.

284-07-15    Catelyn rides north to join her husband at Winterfell.

284-08-15    Catelyn arrives at Winterfell.

285-06-01    Sansa is conceived.

In the above, I have tried to incorporate some of the following considerations:  

(1) the siege of Storms end lasts a "year" or "close to a year" per the main books.  TWOIAF has "the better part of a year"; which could be a downward revision.  Nonetheless I have followed the main books.

(2) news that Ned has sired a bastard on campaign must reach Riverrun during the first year of Ned & Cat's marriage, per AGOT, Catelyn 1.

(3) The Battle of the Bells seems to come before the joint wedding of the Tully sisters, based on Cat's use of the past perfect tense.  I'm not 100% sure of this, though.  It could be the other way, and certain language in TWOIAF could be taken as suggesting that the marriage began the Tully alliance, and the victory merely cemented it.

(4) Robb and Jon Snow should be roughly the same age, give or take a few months, in terms of their official birthdays (though baby-swaps could throw this for a loop).  In the above timeline Jon is (officially at least) 2 months older.  I don't buy the argument that Robb is the older of the two.

(5) Per the text, Robert's rebellion needs to "rage" for "close to a year" up until the Sack of King's Landing.  In the above, I have assumed the rebellion did not start "raging" until the Battle of Gulltown, and hence, the period between the Battle of Gulltown and the Sack is just shy of a year.

(6) If Rhaegar is the father of the (theorized) child born in Lyanna's "bed of blood", then Rhaegar cannot re-appear much more than 8 months in advance of the TOJ incident.  This could be stretched to 9 or even 10 months if we allow for the possibiliy that Lyanna was not near the TOJ at the time of conception, or if the (fatal) pregnancy was significantly overdue.  And of course if Rhaegar is not the father, Rhaegar can reappear at any time after the Battle of the Bells.  But in the above timeline, I put 8 months between Rhaegar's reappearance and the TOJ incident.

(7) GRRM said in an SSM that that Jon Snow was not as much as a year older than Dany, but "closer to" 8 or 9 months older.  This would seem to allow anything from 7 to 10 months, and, considering he was speaking off the cuff, maybe even 6 to 11 months.  The only thing he was 100% on was that it was not so much as a year.  Another ambiguity is whether this refers only to accepted birthdays, or whether it is meant to acknowledges fan-theorized age-deceptions associated with fan-theorized baby swaps.  Anyhow, in the above timeline Jon's supposed nameday is 8.5 months before the birth of Rhaella's daughter (which is Dany's supposed nameday).  But Rhaella's daughter is only 4 months younger than the (hypothetical) TOJ baby. 

(8) I have placed the Battle of the Bells before the Battle of Ashford.  But this could easily go the other way.  One reason for placing Ashford first is that Robert and Ned's forces have not joined up yet.  But Robert was more-or-less alone in Stony Sept at the Battle of the Bells.  He does not seem to have had his army with him.  After the battle, he would still need to fetch his army and join forces with Ned at a later date. 

(9)  I have placed Elia's wedding as early in 280 as possible, and the Tourney of Harrenhal as late in 281 as possible, in order to accomodate Elias 2 pregnancies and illnesses.  Nonetheless, the schedule is so tight that we have Elia seeming to get pregnant again before her 6 bedridden months of recovery from Rhaenys are over, unless Aegon was born early.  I also have her recover fairly quickly from nearly dying at the birth of Aegon, so as to be fit for travel not too long thereafter.  The alternative is to have her ride to an/or from Harrenhal and back while heavily pregnant, which seems less likely to me.

(10)  I have Jon's official name-day occur roughly 9 months after Ned crosses the Bite, to be consistent with the story Lord Godric tells Davos.  I leave open the questions of whether Ned really is the father of the child, or whether the fisherman's daughter and Wylla are one and the same.

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

[EggBlue]

here's what I think happened:

1) GRRM had many ideas for Robert's Rebellion

2) GRRM wanted to have a big country

3) GRRM wanted to have a baby born at the beginning and disappear at the end so he can have a pretender ( much like that "brother" of Elizabeth of York that showed up)

4) GRRM wanted the possibility to have children conceived at the beginning of the war and being born at the end so people can speculate which kid is whose

 

= these things didn't really fit together so he wrote his epic hoping that the complexity of the story doesn't let us calculate the confusing timeline but he failed to anticipate it takes a decade for each book to be written that the fans get the time to do the calculation 

[Mister Smikes]

20 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

= these things didn't really fit together so he wrote his epic hoping that the complexity of the story doesn't let us calculate the confusing timeline but he failed to anticipate it takes a decade for each book to be written that the fans get the time to do the calculation 

It is perfectly possible that GRRM did not do his proper homework as far as the Robert's Rebellion timeline is concerned.

However, since it seems it actually is possible to make a timeline, that fits all the bits of data that GRRM has given us, the evidence against GRRM on this point is rather lacking.  Unless, of course, someone can find a serious problem with the above timeline.

It might be difficult to make the timeline fit certain fan theories.  But that is not GRRM's problem.  At least not yet.  Not, at least, until he confirms those fan theories.

[EggBlue]

I suppose there are two obvious problems with this timeline

I should mention I can't say they are downright wrong dates since I don't have the world book to hand to check out everything and the above statement that George hasn't really given us something we can confidently rely on( case in point : Jaimie's memories about Aerys and Rhaella's timing) 

1) as you mentioned yourself, in your timeline Elia recovers too quickly from a pregnancy that nearly kills her comparing to Rhaenys's birth that leaves her bedridden for half a year . and since Rhaegar didn't live at the Red keep, he had literally no reason to be in kings landing if not to announce his heir's birth. also we are told that when Aerys celebrates his grandson's birth by his wild-fire work , Rhaegar was not there to see that since he had started his big journey. this suggests that the time Rhaegar leaves kings landing is the same time he goes to give the news about Aegon. while Elia cannot be heavily pregnant at Harrenhal she could be still pregnant and not showing ( we are not told of the gown she wears) so if we consider 1 month between Dragonstone and Harrenhal , she could be 3-4 months pregnant when they start their journey and 5-6 months when they arrive back at dragonstone. and if we accept that Rhaegar was behind the tourney then when he started planning, his wife wasn't yet pregnant and thus he had no worries on that part.

2) I suppose Tully wanted his daughters to be wed (and hopefully pregnant) before he joins any battles so that if his son-in-laws or he die , his daughters' position in Winterfell and Vale be secured in any case which we see comes true in the case of Cat ( if Ned died she and Robb could still have Winterfell). this particular wishful thinking of Hoster explains why he asked two great lords to come wed and stay 2 weeks at Riverrun at the beginning of a war.  it seems highly unlikely that he joins forces with Ned to go save a rebel who could very well be dead in the battle of the bells , therefore, I'd put battle of the bells after Tully wedding.

 

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

1) as you mentioned yourself, in your timeline Elia recovers too quickly from a pregnancy that nearly kills her comparing to Rhaenys's birth that leaves her bedridden for half a year

I am not a doctor, but I think there is no necessary connection to how close one comes to death, and how fast one recovers.  For instance, I think that regeneration of lost blood can be pretty fast.  I could be wrong, but a fast recovery sounds to me vaguely more plausible than Elia getting knocked up while still bedridden.  Neither can be absolutely ruled out, though.

Quote

. and since Rhaegar didn't live at the Red keep, he had literally no reason to be in kings landing if not to announce his heir's birth.

Well, he was in King's Landing to present Rhaenys to the court.  And, with Elia being bedridden for half a year, he might have waited to make the trip to King's Landing until Elia was well enough to travel.    Perhaps he presented Rhaenys to court when she was 9 months old, well into 281 (maybe around May, 2081 on the above time-line).

The Wiki says Aegon was born on Dragonstone, but I don't recall where this is established in a canon source.

After Harrenhall, he might have accompanied his wife back to King's Landing, and then (maybe) seen her off to Dragonstone by ship.

Quote

also we are told that when Aerys celebrates his grandson's birth by his wild-fire work , Rhaegar was not there to see that since he had started his big journey.

I don't recall anyone making that connection.  I thought Aerys' end-of-year wild-fire work was merely to drive back winter.  

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

2) I suppose Tully wanted his daughters to be wed (and hopefully pregnant) before he joins any battles so that if his son-in-laws or he die , his daughters' position in Winterfell and Vale be secured in any case which we see comes true in the case of Cat ( if Ned died she and Robb could still have Winterfell). this particular wishful thinking of Hoster explains why he asked two great lords to come wed and stay 2 weeks at Riverrun at the beginning of a war.  it seems highly unlikely that he joins forces with Ned to go save a rebel who could very well be dead in the battle of the bells , therefore, I'd put battle of the bells after Tully wedding.

I was inclined to place the Battle of the Bells afterwards.  But I can't get around the following passage:

"If she had lost a child before, that might explain Father's words, and much else besides . . . Lysa's match with Lord Arryn had been hastily arranged, and Jon was an old man even then, older than their father. An old man without an heir. His first two wives had left him childless, his brother's son had been murdered with Brandon Stark in King's Landing, his gallant cousin had died in the Battle of the Bells. He needed a young wife if House Arryn was to continue . . . a young wife known to be fertile."

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I don't know if anyone ever succeeded in constructing a coherent timeline for Robert's Rebellion, so I decided to try my own hand at it.  

Most of the dates in the timeline below are arbitrary in the sense of being chosen by me.   Obviously, I do not know the precise day, the precise week, or even the precise month when a particular event occurred.  However, the dates are not completely arbitrary, in the sense that the need to coordinate these events with each other and the information found in the book ends up severely limiting the dates I can choose.  

However, though precise dates will of course not match, what I have below could plausibly be something that bears a close resemblance to whatever private Robert's Rebellion timeline (if any) GRRM may be maintaining for his own private use.

Or maybe not.  The purpose of this thread is to brainstorm, and I asking those here to scrutinize it for anything that cannot be reconciled with canon sources.

Also, it is possible that other timelines significantly different from the one below, can also be constructed, that match evidence from canon sources as well or even better.  This is an issue I would also like to explore, and I invite anyone to post alternatives timelines, rearranging and redating the events as appropriate.

I have not tried to make the timeline below match any particular fan theory.  Indeed there are some things below that, at first glance at least, seem inconsistent with R+L=J, though IMHO they could on closer examination perhaps be reconciled.  Anyone who thinks they can re-arrange or redate the timeline to make it more "convenient" (shall we say) to standard R+L=J assumptions is welcome to the challenge.

I have not tried to exhaustively "show my work", and I apologize for my laziness.  Nonetheless, I have placed a few explanatory comments (not exhaustive) after the timeline, explaining a few of the considerations I used in constructing it.  

280-01-01    Wedding of Rhaegar and Elia, in King's Landing

280-08-07    Birth of Rhaenys, to Rhaegar & Elia, on Dragonstone    

280-12-01    Lord Whent announces tourney at Harrenhal

281-02-01    Elia, bedridden for (about) 6 months, finally recovers.

281-10-01    Birth of Aegon to Elia; she nearly dies.

281-10-24    Beginning of False Spring

281-11-20    Start of Tourney at Harrenhal

281-11-30    End of Tourney at Harrenal.  Elia is present.

281-12-24    End of False Spring; Winter returns with a Vengeance

281-12-31    Beginning of Snowstorm at King's Landing

282-01-01    Rhaegar leaves King's Landing.

282-01-14    End of Snowstorm at King's Landing

282-02-15    Abduction of Lyanna near Harrenhal

282-04-01    Brandon Stark, et al., imprisoned.

282-05-01    Hoster forces Lysa to abort.  

282-06-01    Rickard Stark et al. executed by Aerys

282-08-01    Jon Arryn raises his banners in revolt.

282-08-15    Approximate birth date of any hypothetical child conceived at Harrehnal.

282-09-01    Eddard sneaks across the Bite with fisherman's daughter.

282-09-07    Battle of Gulltown

282-10-01    Robert reaches Storm's End; raises banners.

282-10-15    Battle of Summerhall

282-11-07    Battle of the Bells

282-11-21    Joint Wedding of the Tully Sisters

282-12-01    Battle of Ashford

282-12-05    Ned leaves Catelyn at Riverrun

283-01-01    Beginning of siege of Storms End.

283-05-01    Rhaegar comes out of the South.

283-06-07    Supposed birth date and name-day of Jon Snow.

283-06-15    Battle of the Trident

283-08-01    Birth of Robb Stark at River-run.

283-08-15    Sack of Kings Landing

283-08-16    2nd day of Sack.  Elia & babes murdered; Arrival of Ned.

283-08-17    Robert arrives at King's Landing.  Tywin presents dead babes.

283-08-17    Ned leaves King's Landing to take Army South

283-11-10    Riverrun receives news that Ned fathered a bastard on campaign.

283-11-15    Eddard lifts the siege of Storm's End.

284-01-15    Tower of Joy incident.

284-03-01    Eddard visits Starfall

284-05-10    Rhaella gives birth to a daughter on Dragonstone.

284-05-12    Death of Rhaella.

284-05-17    Darry escapes Dragonstone with Viserys and the baby.

284-05-18    Stannis sails for Dragonstone with the Royal Fleet.

284-06-01    Ned passes through Barrowtown with Lyanna's bones and Dustin's horse.

284-06-15    Dragonstone surrenders.  The "wars" are over at last.

284-07-15    Catelyn rides north to join her husband at Winterfell.

284-08-15    Catelyn arrives at Winterfell.

285-06-01    Sansa is conceived.

In the above, I have tried to incorporate some of the following considerations:  

(1) the siege of Storms end lasts a "year" or "close to a year" per the main books.  TWOIAF has "the better part of a year"; which could be a downward revision.  Nonetheless I have followed the main books.

(2) news that Ned has sired a bastard on campaign must reach Riverrun during the first year of Ned & Cat's marriage, per AGOT, Catelyn 1.

(3) The Battle of the Bells seems to come before the joint wedding of the Tully sisters, based on Cat's use of the past perfect tense.  I'm not 100% sure of this, though.  It could be the other way, and certain language in TWOIAF could be taken as suggesting that the marriage began the Tully alliance, and the victory merely cemented it.

(4) Robb and Jon Snow should be roughly the same age, give or take a few months, in terms of their official birthdays (though baby-swaps could throw this for a loop).  In the above timeline Jon is (officially at least) 2 months older.  I don't buy the argument that Robb is the older of the two.

(5) Per the text, Robert's rebellion needs to "rage" for "close to a year" up until the Sack of King's Landing.  In the above, I have assumed the rebellion did not start "raging" until the Battle of Gulltown, and hence, the period between the Battle of Gulltown and the Sack is just shy of a year.

(6) If Rhaegar is the father of the (theorized) child born in Lyanna's "bed of blood", then Rhaegar cannot re-appear much more than 8 months in advance of the TOJ incident.  This could be stretched to 9 or even 10 months if we allow for the possibiliy that Lyanna was not near the TOJ at the time of conception, or if the (fatal) pregnancy was significantly overdue.  And of course if Rhaegar is not the father, Rhaegar can reappear at any time after the Battle of the Bells.  But in the above timeline, I put 8 months between Rhaegar's reappearance and the TOJ incident.

(7) GRRM said in an SSM that that Jon Snow was not as much as a year older than Dany, but "closer to" 8 or 9 months older.  This would seem to allow anything from 7 to 10 months, and, considering he was speaking off the cuff, maybe even 6 to 11 months.  The only thing he was 100% on was that it was not so much as a year.  Another ambiguity is whether this refers only to accepted birthdays, or whether it is meant to acknowledges fan-theorized age-deceptions associated with fan-theorized baby swaps.  Anyhow, in the above timeline Jon's supposed nameday is 8.5 months before the birth of Rhaella's daughter (which is Dany's supposed nameday).  But Rhaella's daughter is only 4 months younger than the (hypothetical) TOJ baby. 

(8) I have placed the Battle of the Bells before the Battle of Ashford.  But this could easily go the other way.  One reason for placing Ashford first is that Robert and Ned's forces have not joined up yet.  But Robert was more-or-less alone in Stony Sept at the Battle of the Bells.  He does not seem to have had his army with him.  After the battle, he would still need to fetch his army and join forces with Ned at a later date. 

(9)  I have placed Elia's wedding as early in 280 as possible, and the Tourney of Harrenhal as late in 281 as possible, in order to accomodate Elias 2 pregnancies and illnesses.  Nonetheless, the schedule is so tight that we have Elia seeming to get pregnant again before her 6 bedridden months of recovery from Rhaenys are over, unless Aegon was born early.  I also have her recover fairly quickly from nearly dying at the birth of Aegon, so as to be fit for travel not too long thereafter.  The alternative is to have her ride to an/or from Harrenhal and back while heavily pregnant, which seems less likely to me.

(10)  I have Jon's official name-day occur roughly 9 months after Ned crosses the Bite, to be consistent with the story Lord Godric tells Davos.  I leave open the questions of whether Ned really is the father of the child, or whether the fisherman's daughter and Wylla are one and the same.

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Robert's_Rebellion

[Mister Smikes]

8 minutes ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Robert's_Rebellion

Yes.  That is one of the sources I consulted for preparing my timeline.

But it is not itself a timeline and makes no attempt at a timeline.

Since it is not a primary source, I have taken the liberty of disagreeing with it on one or two points.

[StarksInTheNorth]

re @EggBlue's comments, the wildfire, and Aegon: it's never explicitly stated that the wildfire is in celebration. I believe TWOIAF says it was to keep the cold at bay since the year of the false spring ended. Also, I can't quite remember but I'm fairly certain robert was present at cat's wedding. I'll try to find the quote later. If he was, imo that's definite evidence that the battle of the bells is before. it would also make sense for them to wait two weeks after the wedding if they are waiting for excess troops to gather so they could fight Rhaegar. 

re the wiki page and timeline: generally the wiki is very easy to follow but I haven't been able to find any reasoning for why they placed the Battle of the Bells in 283.

A few other various points, in semi-timeline order:

• I'd put Jon Arryn's raising the banners earlier. It was after they got the raven re Rickard's death, whoch was propbably shortly after the deaths.
• I'd also put the abortion later because its implied Lysa was pretty far along (since there was so much blood).
• Also curious where you would put the duel between Petyr and Brandon and defeat of the kingswood brotherhood/knighting of jaime.
• I also appreciate the "approximate birth date of any hypothetical child" lol.
• With Ashford and Battle of the Bells, I think the biggest tell regarding the order is the math people have done regarding the order of the Hands and when news of the battles arrived. There's also a quote somewhere about Robert attending the wedding at Riverrun, which strongly implies Bells was before the wedding.
  • I think it's also explained elsehwere besides a Cat chapter that Jon married Lysa after the battle since his cousin/heir died during that battle. Maybe littelfinger's geneology lesson.
• Why do you have the sack lasting two days? I was under the impression it was a one day event, and that Robert arrived about a week later.
• Also kind of curious why sansa's conception is on this?

[StarksInTheNorth]

Also you didn't do this but I'm dropping it in this thread for anyone else who might be attempting this: Harrenhal Tourney and the Sack can be no more than two years and eleven months apart. Jaime was knighted at 15 during the Kingswood Brotherhood Campaign and killed Aerys at 17. He was invited to join the kingsguard about a month after the campaign. If we assume he turned 15 the day he was knighted and killed aerys the day before he turned eighteen, its about 3 years.

[Megorova]

Three major inconsistencies with the canon and the official sources:

1. Aegon was born after the tournament at Harrenhal, not before it.

2. Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna nearly a year after the tournament, not mere months like it is in your version.

3. The battle at Ashford happened prior the battle of the Bells.

It went like this (and this info is from the official source - from ASOIAF-books and TWOIAF-book) - after Jon Arryn got that letter from Aerys, from the Eyrie Jon and Robert went to Gulltown, and Ned took a different path to sail to the North. From the Gulltown Robert sailed to Storm's End, where he ordered his bannermen to prepare for the war. While the preparations were still in the process, Robert heard that three of his bannermen are conspiring against him, that they remained loyal to the King and are planning to attack Robert (or something like that). So he went to Summerhall, because that's where those three conspirators were gathering. And then he fought with them one on one, three trials-by-combat in a single day. He killed one of them, and the two others brought with him back to Storm's End.

<- the battle at Summerhall.

Then he heard that Randyl Tarly are marching with his troops to Storm's End, so Robert took his troops and went west to intercept Tarly-troops. They met at Ashford and fought there, Robert got wounded and escaped north towards the Stoney Sept. When it was already apparent which side will loose (Robert's, because he got wounded), on the scene appeared Mace Tyrell with his troops. After the battle at Ashford ended, Mace took his troops to Storm's End and sieged the castle.

<- the battle at Ashford and the beginning of the Storm's End siege.

Robert's troops were scattered after their loss in the battle, and Robert was wounded, so the remnants of his troops left him at the Stoney Sept, while they went to gather the others. Aerys received info that Robert is at the Stoney Sept, so he appointed Jon Connington as his new Hand, and sent him to get Robert. While Jon and his troops were searching where Robert was hiding, the people of the Stoney Sept rebelled against Aerys and attacked the King's troops. The people of that village/town/whatever were ringing all the bells of the Stoney Sept. Robert heard them, came out of the brothel where he was hiding, and joined the fight. Then arrived Ned, and Hoster Tully with his troops. Majority of Northern troops were still on the way, they were still preparing for the war, so Ned went ahead of them. And on his way to the Stoney Sept (where Robert was recuperating after being wounded at Ashford), he went to Riverrun, where he made a deal with Hoster to marry with Cat in Brandon's place. So Hoster took his troops and went with Ned to the Stoney Sept, where they arrived just in time to save Robert.

<- the battle of the Bells.

Afterwards they went to Riverrun, so Robert's troops

(those that got separated from him after the battle at Ashford)

and Ned's troops

(those that were still coming from The North)

and Jon Arryn troops

(when Ned went to The North and Robert went to Storm's End, after seizing Gulltown, Jon Arryn stayed behind at The Vale, and he was using the ships that he seized at Gulltown to transport his troops out of The Vale (it was winter, so the land-exit out of The Vale was blocked by snow, thus the only way to get out of The Vale was via ships))

all were gathering at the Riverrun.

And when Jon Arryn arrived there to join Ned and Robert, Hoster Tully additionally arranged Jon's wedding to Lysa (that's because Jon's heir presumptive was killed at Gulltown, and his next heir was killed during the battle of the Bells, so he had no heirs left, and thus had to marry again). 

<- double wedding at the Riverrun - Ned and Cat, Jon Arryn and Lysa.

There are also some other minor inconsistencies in your timeline, but they are not as erroneous as those three.

[Willam Stark]

10 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

re the wiki page and timeline: generally the wiki is very easy to follow but I haven't been able to find any reasoning for why they placed the Battle of the Bells in 283.

"Seventeen years had come and gone since the Battle of the Bells <...>" (ADWD, The Lost Lord)

300 = x+17

300 = Current year in ADWD

x = Year in which the Battle of The Bells occured

17 = Time span since the Battle of The Bells

300-17 = x

x = 283

[Mister Smikes]

10 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

Also, I can't quite remember but I'm fairly certain robert was present at cat's wedding. I'll try to find the quote later.

I'm not sure of that.  Could you be misremembering the reference to Lord Dustin?

10 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

re the wiki page and timeline: generally the wiki is very easy to follow but I haven't been able to find any reasoning for why they placed the Battle of the Bells in 283.

Me neither.  

6 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

"Seventeen years had come and gone since the Battle of the Bells <...>" (ADWD, The Lost Lord)

300 = x+17

300 = Current year in ADWD

x = Year in which the Battle of The Bells occured

17 = Time span since the Battle of The Bells

300-17 = x

x = 283

Battle of the Bells happens in late 282

Then, 283 comes and goes (= first year to come and go since the Battle of the Bells)

Then, 284 comes and goes (= second year to come and go since the Battle of the Bells).

[... etc., etc.]

Then, 299 comes and goes (= seventeenth year to come and go since the Battle of the Bells)

Finally, in early 300, when the year 300 has come but not gone yet, Jon Connington thinks, accurately, that 17 years have come and gone since the Battle of the Bells.

Even if, despite the wording, Jon Connington actually meant no more than "17 years ago", such rarely is meant to imply absolute precision.  17 years and 5 months ago would be well within the ordinary meaning of such phrases.

This quote cannot rule out the Battle of the Bells occurring in late 282.

10 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

A few other various points, in semi-timeline order:

• I'd put Jon Arryn's raising the banners earlier. It was after they got the raven re Rickard's death, whoch was propbably shortly after the deaths.

Since the Mad King's armies were not actually at his gates, some delay seems plausible.  Time enough for an exchange of ravens so everyone knows where they stand.  Open rebellion is not a step to be taken lightly.  But the time could be shortened without unduly affecting the other dates.

10 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

• I'd also put the abortion later because its implied Lysa was pretty far along (since there was so much blood).
• Also curious where you would put the duel between Petyr and Brandon and defeat of the kingswood brotherhood/knighting of jaime.

Not sure of the medical question, since I am not a doctor.   I have heard, though, that medieval abortifacients were pretty dangerous stuff.  Too small a dose, and you might not kill the fetus.  Too large a dose and the mother was not safe either.  There was no safe, effective middle ground between these extremes.   And I don't know that it depended on how far along the mother was.

I originally had the Petyr/Brandon duel on the timeline.  I took it out, and meant to take out the date of the abortion as well.   It seemed to me I could choose a wide variety of dates, without necessarily affecting anything else in the timeline, and that made the exercise seem too arbitrary.  I can put if back, if anyone thinks it has any potential to affect other dates.

10 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

• Why do you have the sack lasting two days? I was under the impression it was a one day event, and that Robert arrived about a week later.

I have no particularly good reason for a 2-day sack.  There seems no overwhelming need for the Sack to take a single day; as the King still has defenses even after the city gates are breached.  It just felt like less of a coincidence if Ned's army and Tywin's army do not arrive on the exact same day.

I also like the idea of Robert not arriving for a week, which seems more natural if he was wounded.  But the bodies of the children would have been pretty smelly by then, no?  Maybe Tywin threw the bodies in an ice house.  Or maybe the scaling of the holdfast and the murder of Elia and her children occurred a day or two after Ned's arrival.  There is some logic to the idea that Maegor's Holdfast would be the last thing to be breached.

10 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

• Also kind of curious why sansa's conception is on this?

No particularly good reason.  It sets an outside limit to how late Ned can return from the South.  But in the above timeline he has almost a year to spare.

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Three major inconsistencies with the canon and the official sources:

1. Aegon was born after the tournament at Harrenhal, not before it.

2. Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna nearly a year after the tournament, not mere months like it is in your version.

3. The battle at Ashford happened prior the battle of the Bells.

You may be right.  But these claims have to be proven by quotes from canon sources.  Once they are, I will make the necessary adjustments.

But if Lyanna was kidnapped a year after the tournament, I think it might be difficult to construct a workable timeline.

[Willam Stark]

1 minute ago, Mister Smikes said:

Battle of the Bells happens in late 282

Nope in 283.

2 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

This quote cannot rule out the Battle of the Bells occurring in late 282.

Of course it does. Your reasoning only holds if we talk about a given year, not a specific date.

The Battle of The Bells occured on a specific date, so you cannot count how many New Year's Days and New Year's Eves have passed since this Battle but how many years have passed between this specific date (expressed in year) and the current year in ADWD, with my reasoning. Besides you should know that GRRM doesn't always use the literal meaning of words, otherwise "bed of blood" wouldn't refer to childbirth for example. Don't use the the literal meaning when it suits you, this is pure bad faith.

[StarksInTheNorth]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Since the Mad King's armies were not actually at his gates, some delay seems plausible.  Time enough for an exchange of ravens so everyone knows where they stand.  Open rebellion is not a step to be taken lightly.  But the time could be shortened without unduly affecting the other dates.

I feel like the best reference for this would be however long Robb was gathering people around him at Winterfell in AGOT. Maybe Aerys demands the heads early, which seems most likely imo, but then Jon Arryn invites his men to the Eyrie/Gates of the Moon to deliberate before eventually sending back his defiance. A quote I've little thought of in regards to the rebellion comes to mind upon pondering this, from Catelyn IV, AGOT: "[Petyr Baelish] wrote to me at Riverrun after Brandon was killed, but I burned the letter unread. By then I knew that Ned would marry me in his brother's place."

I'd venture a guess that the Drearfort is one of the last places to get news, so there should be time for the news to get to the Eyrie and for Jon to make arrangements with Hoster. A bit of delay does actually give the time for those arrangements to be made. Jon Arryn would likely want to make sure he had allies before going to war, especially since it would take a while for the northern lords to assemble and come south and the same for Robert. Checking in with Hoster re a marriage pact would be a good place to start.

Quote

I originally had the Petyr/Brandon duel on the timeline.  I took it out, and meant to take out the date of the abortion as well.   It seemed to me I could choose a wide variety of dates, without necessarily affecting anything else in the timeline, and that made the exercise seem too arbitrary.  I can put if back, if anyone thinks it has any potential to affect other dates.

I think it's somewhat important to have the duel on since it affects the Lysa/Jon deal and also exactly when Brandon was where. There's loads of speculation about that and you seem to be avoiding putting in too much speculative information as concrete, which I appreciate. We know Brandon went north to meet the wedding party, but what exactly does that mean? Joining them at the Inn at the Crossroads, sort of like Barristan and Renly in Sansa I? Or going all the way to Winterfell to fetch his family?

Another note to support some of your calculations: Barbrey and Willam Dustin were married for less than half a year. Her father had a hope to marry her to Eddard and Ned was unpromised until Brandon's death. I don't recall any levirate marriages in asoiaf, but it's probably a fair assumption for Lord Ryswell to only give up hopes of Barbrey/Eddard after Catelyn once again becomes available. You have almost exactly half a year between Brandon's death and Catelyn and Ned marrying, which would be perfect for a quick Barbrey/Willam union, 2-3 months of martial bliss, and then her husband marching off to war, never to be seen again.

Quote

I have no particularly good reason for a 2-day sack.  There seems no overwhelming need for the Sack to take a single day; as the King still has defenses even after the city gates are breached.  It just felt like less of a coincidence if Ned's army and Tywin's army do not arrive on the exact same day.

Based on what we saw with the silent siege in F&B, this makes sense that it would take some time. Although it doesn't quite lineup with Ned arriving to see Jaime sitting on the throne. If Tywin arrived there first, I doubt Robert would be the new king. 

Quote

I also like the idea of Robert not arriving for a week, which seems more natural if he was wounded.  But the bodies of the children would have been pretty smelly by then, no?  Maybe Tywin threw the bodies in an ice house.  Or maybe the scaling of the holdfast and the murder of Elia and her children occurred a day or two after Ned's arrival.  There is some logic to the idea that Maegor's Holdfast would be the last thing to be breached.

I feel like if it would be mentioned if it happened after Ned's arrival, though he doesn't think too much on the Elia's children so who knows. And the details of the rebellion definitely developed over time as GRRM was writing, so that concept may have just not been thought through entirely when he wrote Ned's POV. Idk exactly how they were preserved, but the silent sisters seem to have their ways. Plus, it was still winter at that point so it wouldn't even need an icebox necessarily. I'm sure the black cells are freezing.

Also, re: Robert at the Riverrun wedding. I haven't actually read the source myself, but according to the wiki it's mentioned on Robert's page on the app that he was present.

[Mister Smikes]

31 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Nope in 283.

Of course it does. Your reasoning only holds if we talk about a given year, not a specific date.

The Battle of The Bells occured on a specific date, so you cannot count how many New Year's Days and New Year's Eves have passed since this Battle but how many years have passed between this specific date (expressed in year) and the current year in ADWD, with my reasoning. Besides you should know that GRRM doesn't always use the literal meaning of words, otherwise "bed of blood" wouldn't refer to childbirth for example. Don't use the the literal meaning when it suits you, this is pure bad faith.

I placed the Battle of the Bells in late 282, because I am able to make the timeline work that way.

If you want to place the Battle of the Bells in 283, knock yourself out.  See if you can make that timeline work.  Maybe you can.  You would have to redate alot of things, though, and it might lead to problems. 

But i am not claiming that the Jon Con quote, by itself, MUST be read as ruling out a 283 date.  

In the meantime, "you can't prove GRRM is being literal" does not seem to me a sufficient reason for revising the timeline I already have.

[StarksInTheNorth]

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

Three major inconsistencies with the canon and the official sources:

1. Aegon was born after the tournament at Harrenhal, not before it.

There's no evidence as to when he was born in relation to the tourney, just that he was a newborn when Rhaegar left. I'm of the opinion that his birth was after, and that Elia was 5-7 months pregnant during the tournament, but since there's no for sure proof of anything, he's not making a factual inconsistency. Just a hypothesize conclusion you and I disagree with him on.

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

2. Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna nearly a year after the tournament, not mere months like it is in your version.

There's no quote that backs this up. All we know regarding the timeline is it happened during 282. From TWOIAF: With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

There's no timeline except "with the coming of the new year" and that he "ultimately" ended up back in the Riverlands. There's a few other tiny details regarding it taking place in 282, but nothing about when in the year it happened. In comparison, the False Spring lasted "two turns" before the year ended with a vengeful return to winter. So the Harrenhal Tourney was late in the year. 

Also, for @Mister Smikes, another random detail that probably doesn't matter much: Lyanna and Robert had . Mya was born in 279 or 280, based on the wiki's calculations. So Lyanna and Robert were promised around those years, based on Eddard IX, when Ned reflects on his visit to Winterfell when the marriage to Robert was announced. At that point, she's aware of Mya and Ned has met her. So the absolute earliest Lyanna/Robert were betrothed was in 279. I'd like to see Robert/Cersei's marriage and tournament on here as well, though all we really know is that it happened sometime in 284.

[Willam Stark]

4 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I placed the Battle of the Bells in late 282, because I am able to make the timeline work that way.

I know but it's not the case, the Battle of the Bells occured in 283.

9 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

If you want to place the Battle of the Bells in 283, knock yourself out.

I don't especially want to place it in 283, but the informations we have leads to this year, you have to take this into account.

14 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

See if you can make that timeline work.  Maybe you can.  You would have to redate alot of things, though, and it might lead to problems. 

I'll give it a try.

15 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

But i am not claiming that the Jon Con quote, by itself, MUST be read as ruling out a 283 date.  

I hope so, because it would be wrong.

18 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

In the meantime, "you can't prove GRRM is being literal" does not seem to me a sufficient reason for revising the timeline I already have.

I'm just stating a fact here, if you want to dismiss an argument don't use the literal meaning of thing, otherwise the entire saga would lose most of its meaning.

[Mister Smikes]

14 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

I'll give it a try.

Please do.  In the meantime, the gap between the date of the Battle of the Bells and the Jon Con quote, on my timeline, is 17 years and 6 months.

By any measure, only 17 years have "come and gone".  That is true whether "year" is measured from New Years Day to New Years Eve, or Anniversary to Anniversary.    The 18th year has not "come and gone" yet.