Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[The Sleeper]

A bit late in the discussion for a topic that arose before, whether Aegon was planned from the start. 

At least as far as Clash, I think the foreshadowing is definite. There is Dany's vision of the mummer's dragon, as well as Varys's riddle. Besides that there is his interpretation of the comet which he claimed to be the herald of a king (not a queen) to come with fire and blood.

However there is potential foreshadowing even in Game. When Varys visited Ned in the black cells and they discussed about the innocents who suffer, while speaking of Rhaenys, he neglected to mention baby Aegon.

There is a far more compelling fact however. The existence of Varys and Illyrio themselves. They don't make sense as characters without Aegon as their motivation. As well as the fact that "Dance with Dragons" was always a planned title.

As for Illyrio changing his plans all the time, the changing circumstances justify that and the irrelevance of those plans saves Martin the trouble of having to come up with them. 

Edited May 23, 2023 by The Sleeper

[csuszka1948]

On 4/16/2023 at 10:15 AM, StarkTullies said:

Even though Petyr "thrives on chaos" and Varys is the "man with a plan", supposedly, I think it is really the opposite.  Petyr creates chaos but he doesn't really need to respond to his plans going astray because so far (and perhaps in a very contrived plot-armor way), his plans always go accordingly.  Varys is the one who has to shift every five minutes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, and this is very annoying. LF is probably the luckiest noble (besides Reek/Ramsay) in Westeros and some of his plans (being architect of Wo5K) do not make so much sense if you look at them without the benefit of foresight (that they succeeded), they look like very risky gambles. It also makes little sense that he persuaded Joffrey to cut the head of Ned off, when he could probably arranged for the death of Ned during  the chaos of the coup.

 

I think that GRRM's original plan for LF was sending him to the Night's Watch in ACOK by Tyrion (justice for the lie about the dagger and Ned's betrayal) and he was supposed to be the rival of Jon (it certainly would be more engaging than the slime called Slynt), but while writing ACOK he came up with another plan for him (being architect of Wo5K and mentor of Sansa) and started portraying him in a different light (as a much more trusted and less slimy schemer).

I think if he could rewrite the series, then he would portray LF in a much better light in AGOT - as someone who was the trusted man of Jon Arryn and not trusted by the Lannisters (initially) -, would help Ned much more to lead him towards the truth and might even have his story about the dagger be the truth (Tyrion won a dagger from him, left in in the King's armory and Joffrey or Cersei took it and gave it to the catspaw), so that his betrayal at the end cuts much deeper.

 

That said, not every one of his plans succeeded as he wanted: 

• he probably hoped to lead Ned into the incest discovery himself, not Ned to discover it on his own after some words from Sansa
• he definitely didn't want Cat to encounter Tyrion, kidnap him, tell him the truth about the dagger and Tyrion to escape afterwards
• he probably hoped to be named Lord of Harrenhal or married to Sansa after his help to Cersei, but he was refused
• he hoped that Tyrion will be killed or sent to the Wall after his trial so that Sansa is free for marriage, but he failed
• he certainly didn't want to dispose Lysa so early

I don't think it's true, but I actually like the theory that the poison was in the pie and was meant (by LF) to Tyrion but Joffrey ate it instead. :-) 

Edited June 24, 2023 by csuszka1948

[StarkTullies]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, and this is very annoying. LF is probably the luckiest noble (besides Reek/Ramsay) in Westeros and some of his plans (being architect of Wo5K) do not make so much sense if you look at them without the benefit of foresight (that they succeeded), they look like very risky gambles. It also makes little sense that he persuaded Joffrey to cut the head of Ned off, when he could probably arranged for the death of Ned during  the chaos of the coup.

I am a bit of blind fanboy with very few criticisms of the story, but my biggest criticism is the plot armor of a few characters, most especially Littlefinger.  He's not a genius; he's just lucky.  There is no plausible explanation for why Tyrion didn't destroy him when he returned to Kings Landing after Petyr's lies and manipulations nearly got him killed.

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

That said, not every one of his plans succeeded as he wanted: 

• he probably hoped to lead Ned into the incest discovery himself, not Ned to discover it on his own after some words from Sansa
• he definitely didn't want Cat to encounter Tyrion, kidnap him, tell him the truth about the dagger and Tyrion to escape afterwards
• he probably hoped to be named Lord of Harrenhal or married to Sansa after his help to Cersei, but he was refused
• he hoped that Tyrion will be killed or sent to the Wall after his trial so that Sansa is free for marriage, but he failed
• he certainly didn't want to dispose Lysa so early

Even for these failures, he still succeeded though.  He didn't directly lead Ned to the incest revelation, but Ned learned anyway.  Cat encountering Tyrion continued to escalate events toward a war that he wanted to start, and he didn't suffer any consequences for Tyrion learning about his lie.  He didn't get Harrenhal as soon as he wanted it, but he still got it.  I'm not sure if Tyrion still being alive will stop him from getting Sansa married: we'll see.

I'm not sure that he didn't want to get rid of Lysa so soon.  It made it awkward and suspicious having to justify himself to the Lord Declarants that she died so soon after marrying him... but so far he has them contained, and he also no longer has to put up with the wife that he despises.

But he definitely did not want Lysa to spill the truth to Sansa.  We haven't seen the fallout from that yet, but I think/hope that it will eventually lead to his end.

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, StarkTullies said:

-I am a bit of blind fanboy with very few criticisms of the story, but my biggest criticism is the plot armor of a few characters, most especially Littlefinger.  He's not a genius; he's just lucky.  There is no plausible explanation for why Tyrion didn't destroy him when he returned to Kings Landing after Petyr's lies and manipulations nearly got him killed.

-Even for these failures, he still succeeded though.  He didn't directly lead Ned to the incest revelation, but Ned learned anyway.  Cat encountering Tyrion continued to escalate events toward a war that he wanted to start, and he didn't suffer any consequences for Tyrion learning about his lie.  He didn't get Harrenhal as soon as he wanted it, but he still got it.  I'm not sure if Tyrion still being alive will stop him from getting Sansa married: we'll see.

I'm not sure that he didn't want to get rid of Lysa so soon.  It made it awkward and suspicious having to justify himself to the Lord Declarants that she died so soon after marrying him... but so far he has them contained, and he also no longer has to put up with the wife that he despises.

But he definitely did not want Lysa to spill the truth to Sansa.  We haven't seen the fallout from that yet, but I think/hope that it will eventually lead to his end.

- dunno its made quite a big deal out of . Tyrion as hand CAN put his head on a  pike yes. He can but again LF can say he just mis-remembered who he won the knife from AND that he openly told ned the knife alone proves nothing..its the starks  esp cat who chose to act. What lf said alone shouldnt be enough to act on (again we as readers know hes had lysa send the letter which combined adds much more weight) 

But theres 2 explabtions that sort of work seperately or better together of why tyrion didnt kill him outright...misremeber or just bullsbitting to impress ned the lie/misremembed bet almsot got him killed so hes got a right to be angry

1) tyrion  arrives in kl and is stuck into 'the game' hes got shae who varys  finds almost right away and mainly his nephew and sisters position to bring to heel all while prepping a city for siege! Hes too busy wrestling away control from cersei+ joff while unsure of varys , loved up and getting drunk with shae and of course as we see theres dozens of other lilttle distractions right up to blackwater!! After which he got less power to strike lf  with.

2)tyrion is an intellectual and likes a good revenge thus another reason he may not kill lf right away is  he wants to put that mind to use and figure out the why....hes never harmed or even been bothered about LF why the hell would he do what hes done? Whats a good revenge..what does LF truely fear or treasure to take from him before killing him? Can Lf strike back in any way ? remember varys showed him almost on arrival that seemingly powerless lords can be very dangerous by uncovering shae! All this takes time and thouggt  that the events in kings landing rob  that from him!

 

-yeah def agree he didnt want to kill lysa right away.....he still manages to secure his power over the vale neatly but having lysa at his back would have made it farr easier

Edited June 24, 2023 by astarkchoice

[StarkTullies]

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

But theres 2 explabtions that sort of work seperately or better together of why tyrion didnt kill him outright

When I said "destroy him", I didn't necessarily mean kill him.

But he was seeking out the spies in the small council.  He was disappointed it was Pycelle, because he would rather go after Petyr or Varys... indicating that he was willing to do so.  He had a silent thought to himself that "I still need to have a talk with him about certain dagger" (or some similar wording: I don't have the exact quote), which seemed like a weak attempt to show us that this lingering thread hadn't been forgotten; instead it was just ignored.

[astarkchoice]

8 hours ago, StarkTullies said:

When I said "destroy him", I didn't necessarily mean kill him.

But he was seeking out the spies in the small council.  He was disappointed it was Pycelle, because he would rather go after Petyr or Varys... indicating that he was willing to do so.  He had a silent thought to himself that "I still need to have a talk with him about certain dagger" (or some similar wording: I don't have the exact quote), which seemed like a weak attempt to show us that this lingering thread hadn't been forgotten; instead it was just ignored.

Yeah but by then lfs comments which lead to a series of events which almost put his life at risk  understandably took a back seat to an actual attempt on his life and his brutal maiming! on  top.of the removal.of his power thus leaving him open to his unpredictabl.sister , nephew  and hois dad.

[csuszka1948]

On 5/16/2023 at 5:13 PM, frenin said:

Except that Jaime fully recognizes and acknowledges the threat he poses in AGOT, he somehow has forgotten about it in AFFC.

Eddard also never liked him but definitely came to distrust him after the Jaime incident, the only reason he had an edge was Cat.

There is an obvious disconnect in how the characters see LF in AGOT and how they see him afterwards.

 

Yes, I agree. I think George's original plan was for Tyrion to send him to the NW in ACOK as 'justice' for the lie about the dagger and Ned's betrayal, but then he came up with the idea of LF as the mastermind behind the WO5K and Sansa's mentor figure and loved it, so Tyrion sent Janos Slynt to the Watch instead and has forgotten about the affair with the dagger.

That said, Jaime might not be forgetting the threat he poses, just LF has proven himself to be a steadfast Lannister ally and his position is tied to theirs. 

[Alester Florent]

On 6/25/2023 at 9:44 AM, StarkTullies said:

When I said "destroy him", I didn't necessarily mean kill him.

But he was seeking out the spies in the small council.  He was disappointed it was Pycelle, because he would rather go after Petyr or Varys... indicating that he was willing to do so.  He had a silent thought to himself that "I still need to have a talk with him about certain dagger" (or some similar wording: I don't have the exact quote), which seemed like a weak attempt to show us that this lingering thread hadn't been forgotten; instead it was just ignored.

Ultimately I think at this point Tyrion is still building his power and alliance base in King's Landing. When he arrives he has some hired muscle and that's it. No allies at court, no contacts with the common people, nothing. He doesn't even have enough eligible placemen to fill the vacant spots on the royal council with his own people. Within the court, Cersei is his principal enemy and he hopes that if she can be effectively neutralised, he'll be able to manage Joffrey. Of the remaining four council members (Varys, LF, Slynt and Pycelle) he doesn't initially trust any of them but hopes that Pycelle will be his ally.

He eliminates Slynt, as the easiest target, and replaces him with someone he can rely on. His next move is to identify which of the remaining three is actively feeding information to the queen so that he can at least run his plots with minimal interference. That turns out to be Pycelle, which eliminates his hoped-for ally, a disappointment. Varys manages to gain leverage over Tyrion, forcing them to cooperate. But the exercise does at least suggest that he can work with LF, bearing in mind that their relationship is essentially transactional and that provided he doesn't give him a reason to betray him to Cersei and it's not to his advantage to do so, LF can be reliable if not trustworthy. He still probably plans to deal with LF eventually but he needs to shore up his own position first. Later, he gets another ally in the High Septon. He's probably only a move or two away from feeling strong enough to go after LF.

In that, he's to a large extent overtaken by events: Stannis's attack on King's Landing overshadows everything else and puts constraints on the internal power games he's able to play and then the arrival of Tywin completely changes the game.

But I think there may be a more fundamental error too: while Tyrion seems to assume that so long as he keeps LF warm he can deal with him at his leisure, LF sees Tyrion as a threat, knows or at least strongly suspects that it's only a matter of time before Tyrion comes after him, and is an experienced schemer who knows how to play multiple sides simultaneously (unlike Pycelle, who is crap at it and gets caught the first time he tries it). He is therefore perfectly capable of working with Tyrion and Cersei/Joffrey simultaneously to milk what rewards he can from each of them before eventually throwing Tyrion under the bus.

Tyrion would probably have been better served by disposing of LF immediately he had the opportunity, but I can also see why he didn't, because he didn't realise until it was too late that to all intents and purposes he could, counterintuitively, trust Varys and therefore that he had more, and more powerful, allies than he thought.

[CassDarry]

On 6/24/2023 at 1:29 PM, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, and this is very annoying. LF is probably the luckiest noble

I agree,

And I feel it is still happening, Miranda Royce knew lots of other gossip but the fact of "Arya Stark" marrying Ramsey Bolton doesn't seem to get to Sanda which would surely derail LF plan with "Alayne" in my opinion.....even though Jeyne Poole was in his care so probably he was involved in the fArya plan as well??

[Lord Varys]

On 6/25/2023 at 10:44 AM, StarkTullies said:

When I said "destroy him", I didn't necessarily mean kill him.

But he was seeking out the spies in the small council.  He was disappointed it was Pycelle, because he would rather go after Petyr or Varys... indicating that he was willing to do so.  He had a silent thought to himself that "I still need to have a talk with him about certain dagger" (or some similar wording: I don't have the exact quote), which seemed like a weak attempt to show us that this lingering thread hadn't been forgotten; instead it was just ignored.

It is very much explained why Tyrion doesn't move against Littlefinger. He learns he provided crucial help to Cersei to put Joff on the throne and deal with Ned Stark - which makes him a foremost Lannister ally. He runs the royal treasury and has men in place there, meaning if Littlefinger were removed from his office the Crown's finances would collapse. Yes, the Lannister have shitloads of money ... but not in KL. In ACoK they are surrounded by enemies - Stannis, Renly, even Robb could have tried to march against the city. If only the rumor spread that the Crown was unable to pay men-at-arms and retainers chaos would ensue, there would be an uprising and Stannis or Renly would be welcomed to a Lannister-free KL. Tyrion cannot risk to throw the royal treasury into chaos while King Joffrey fights for his very survival.

Tyrion certainly could have killed him. But he was smart enough to realize that he would not be able to do the job his father sent him to do - defend the city and keep Joffrey on the throne.

That he never actually confronts Littlefinger about the dagger, has the kind of talk with him he has with Pycelle is odd, though. It would have been nice to learn what excuses Littlefinger would have offered. Most likely something along the lines of 'I knew the dagger belonged to King Robert, but I could not possibly give the Starks the name of the king. That would have been treason. So I came up with yours, knowing you were far away and likely only to arrive at court once I had defused the overall situation.'

But he could have also just denied that he ever told Catelyn what she claimed he said. She wasn't there, she couldn't support Tyrion's tale, so Tyrion effectively has nothing.

Also, of course, Tyrion does not really think Littlefinger is a great threat. He realizes he is devious and not trustworthy and that he or the Lannisters in general should eventually replace him once they can afford to do it ... but he has no clue how dangerous he actually is.