Targaryen Stratagem

[Aldarion]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

I know realistically Dothraki and Unsullied would be destroyed but I fear that is not the path the story will take... I mean if it was realistic Unsullied as they are wouldn't exist in the first place, not would the Dothraki or Ironborn...

Agreed - but if you look at Daznak's Pit, Martin does appear to have realized Dothraki at least will be useless.

[Craving Peaches]

7 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed - but if you look at Daznak's Pit, Martin does appear to have realized Dothraki at least will be useless.

Grazdan also says this (and bear in mind he is hyping up the Unsullied a lot because they are trying to get Daenerys to buy them):

Quote

"Your Grace," he growled, "Westeros is being wealthy, yes, but you are not being queen now. Perhaps will never being queen. Even Unsullied may be losing battles to savage steel knights of Seven Kingdoms. I am reminding, the Good Masters of Astapor are not selling flesh for promisings.

So maybe there is hope. Daenerys' army is mostly destroyed and she is left with only sellswords and the dragons (plus any native Westerosi support). It would make for an interesting story since she would actually face a challenge to conquer, given the dragons will not be full grown like Aegon's and she may lack riders for 1-2 (at least at first).

[Aldarion]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

Grazdan also says this (and bear in mind he is hyping up the Unsullied a lot because they are trying to get Daenerys to buy them):

So maybe there is hope. Daenerys' army is mostly destroyed and she is left with only sellswords and the dragons (plus any native Westerosi support). It would make for an interesting story since she would actually face a challenge to conquer, given the dragons will not be full grown like Aegon's and she may lack riders for 1-2 (at least at first).

OK, I forgot that, but yeah. I'm convinced now - all the hyping up of the Dothraki and the Unsullied will likely turn out to be false. I'm not sure Martin will make them be as useless as they ought to be, but they certainly won't be anywhere near what they were hyped up to be in the books and good portion of fandom.

[SeanF]

On 5/15/2023 at 10:45 AM, The hairy bear said:

King's Landing doesn't get his food supplies by sea. They are get it from the Reach and the Riverlands, so the transport is made by road.

From the Free Cities they receive basically luxuries: Myrish Lace, Volantene Glass,... So a sea block may annoy some nobles and ruin a few merchants, but starving King's Landing is not really feasible.

Still, it's still very nicely placed as a base of opperation, and from a propaganda perspective retaking the ancestral Targaryen seat it'd be a powerful move.

Of late, I've seen a few posters suggesting that the explosion of the wildfire that Aerys left buried may obliterate King's Landing. I don't think that's the case.

We know that the placing of the jars was done "in the utmost secrecy by a handful of master pyromancers. They did not even trust their own acolytes to help." So they couldn't place a huge amount of wildfire, specially outside the Red Keep. We also know that the cache that is discovered under the Dragonpit was only of about 300 jars. For comparison, in the battle of the Backwater Tyrion used 10,000 jars.

So I don't think it's reasonable to expect an explosion capable of destroying the whole city. If Aerys had managed to make all the wildfire explode, he may have managed to bring down the Red Keep and the Great Sept, kill a few hundreds of citizens, and create a few fires. But that would be it.

Starving KL is entirely feasible.  Even cutting off 20% of the food supply would send prices rocketing, and cause famine.  When food is short, the government will prioritise feeding its soldiers, key workers, and the nobles.  That 20% reduction in overall food supplies will be looking like 35% for the average citizen.  That means slow starvation.

Ships were essential to supplying big medieval settlements.  Supplies from the Reach would come down the Blackwater Rush, but a blockade by sea would cut off fresh fish, and supplies of salted meat, pickled and candied fruits, corn, alcohol, spices, salt.  That would hurt.  Dragonstone and the other islands are obvious bases to seize.

Edited July 4, 2023 by SeanF

[Lord Varys]

30 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

OK, I forgot that, but yeah. I'm convinced now - all the hyping up of the Dothraki and the Unsullied will likely turn out to be false. I'm not sure Martin will make them be as useless as they ought to be, but they certainly won't be anywhere near what they were hyped up to be in the books and good portion of fandom.

The hype thing is more the notion that Dany will have to conquer anything. She won't. She has dragons and she is the real deal, not a fake pretender, a whiny reject, a mad would-be dark lord, or this or that child ... and no sane person is going to reject her help after the Wall has fallen and all the North have become undead thralls of the Others.

There is some small potential for a minor conflict, like, you know, five guys and their mothers considering to oppose her once she lands her armada ... but that's it. If there are zombies and demons knocking at your door you want help, you don't live out your misogyny or xenophobia.

Sure enough, George won't finish the series in two more books, of course ... but narratively there is no chance - no chance at all - for Daenerys Targaryen fighting a war of conquest in Westeros. That is inconceivable as it would mean that when she shows up - which is likely only going to be in book 7 - the plot at the Wall has still not progressed to 'the Others are a thing' and 'the Others actually breach the Wall and attack the North'.

It already made no sense that nobody gave a fig about the wildlings threat ... but people are now really getting reports about the Others. Petty ambitions won't play a big role once people finally realize what's going on. And it is quite obvious that Dany herself will go to Westeros only after she is informed about the Others (that's why we have Marwyn in the plot who will search her out with the knowledge of Samwell Tarly).

We already had the 'everybody is too stupid/occupied with other silliness to realize what the true danger is' for five books now. Dany and the other core heroes won't play that silly game again.

[Aldarion]

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The hype thing is more the notion that Dany will have to conquer anything. She won't. She has dragons and she is the real deal, not a fake pretender, a whiny reject, a mad would-be dark lord, or this or that child ... and no sane person is going to reject her help after the Wall has fallen and all the North have become undead thralls of the Others.

There is some small potential for a minor conflict, like, you know, five guys and their mothers considering to oppose her once she lands her armada ... but that's it. If there are zombies and demons knocking at your door you want help, you don't live out your misogyny or xenophobia.

Sure enough, George won't finish the series in two more books, of course ... but narratively there is no chance - no chance at all - for Daenerys Targaryen fighting a war of conquest in Westeros. That is inconceivable as it would mean that when she shows up - which is likely only going to be in book 7 - the plot at the Wall has still not progressed to 'the Others are a thing' and 'the Others actually breach the Wall and attack the North'.

It already made no sense that nobody gave a fig about the wildlings threat ... but people are now really getting reports about the Others. Petty ambitions won't play a big role once people finally realize what's going on. And it is quite obvious that Dany herself will go to Westeros only after she is informed about the Others (that's why we have Marwyn in the plot who will search her out with the knowledge of Samwell Tarly).

We already had the 'everybody is too stupid/occupied with other silliness to realize what the true danger is' for five books now. Dany and the other core heroes won't play that silly game again.

If Martin wanted to play "Holy Daenerys Our Savior", then he wouldn't have introduced another Targaryen (fake or not) into the story, let alone two as it seems he may have. Not to mention that the whole affair you have described is simply too Mary Sueish for Martin to realistically write. "Human heart in conflict with itself", remember?

Also, people risking their own existence for the sake of petty ambitions is in fact quite realistic, so yes, it would make sense. Internal conflicts don't just stop because a bigger threat has shown up.

[Craving Peaches]

21 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Also, people risking their own existence for the sake of petty ambitions is in fact quite realistic

Agree, there are so many historical examples, e.g. Hittite infighting as the Sea Peoples were coming, Rome and Byzantium, various Chinese emperors regarding the nomads on the border, various states with the Mongols, Romans, etc...

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

plus any native Westerosi support

Traitors you mean. Would that all of them had but a single neck. Jon doesn't have enough sword arms and by the time he's done swinging his sword Stannis would probably become paralyzed from all those nods of approval he gave.

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Corvo the Crow said:

Traitors you mean.

Of course, thank you for correcting me. They are all traitors to the memory of good King Renly who quite rightly foresaw the trouble that Daenerys would cause if she was not dealt with.

Just now, Corvo the Crow said:

Jon doesn't have enough sword arms

Bold of you to assume Jon has only two arms or that he needs arms to wield a sword.

1 minute ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Stannis would probably become paralyzed from all those nods of approval he gave.

When that happened, Stannis would order his head removed and then they all take orders from his disembodied head.

[Corvo the Crow]

9 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

When that happened, Stannis would order his head removed and then they all take orders from his disembodied head.

Like this?

 

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Like this?

 

Yes.

[astarkchoice]

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed - but if you look at Daznak's Pit, Martin does appear to have realized Dothraki at least will be useless.

I honestly dont even think the dothraki are comming to westeros at all for 2 reasons

1) dany is anti slavery and they are clearly part of the problem not the solution...vaes dothrak will burn in her wake as she flys off.

2) i think her time with them will be about learning not forming allies. The dothraki have a strong bond with their horses and nature..this may be something she learns to tranfer over to grow her currently iffy control over drogon!  In many ways shes going east before she goes west, full circle..shes going back to her peoples primitive roots when they were backward savages that formed blood magic bonds to dragons etc 

OR somewhere in vaea dothrak shel uncover valyrian scrolls and/or a horn and blow it. Itl have sat idle among their many trophies with the horselords unable to read valyrian.

Edited July 4, 2023 by astarkchoice

[csuszka1948]

13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

RED = useless

YELLOW = mostly useless

So yeah...

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think they are useless, because the text presents the Dothraki invasion as a real danger (+the Dothraki as a parallel to Mongols) and the Unsullied are presented as one of the best infantry (which makes little sense since they are eunuchs). They are obviously weaker than Westerosi knights, though.

That said, I don't believe Dany will arrive to a united Westeros, she will probably arrive to a Westeros that is falling apart.

I am not sure that the Unsullied would even come along, they might want to be left behind in Slaver's Bay or Volantis and she would probably oblige. It's the Dothraki who will believe her the Stallion Who Mounts the World and follow her to the end of the world.

Edited July 5, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

If Martin wanted to play "Holy Daenerys Our Savior", then he wouldn't have introduced another Targaryen (fake or not) into the story, let alone two as it seems he may have. Not to mention that the whole affair you have described is simply too Mary Sueish for Martin to realistically write. "Human heart in conflict with itself", remember?

 

 

 

I mean, Aegon could be the fake savior, he is the one built up as a typical saviour figure (the typical "hidden prince" trope).

The 'slayer of lies' vision definitely suggests it - Daenerys probably won't kill Stannis, she will prove that Stannis being Azor Ahai is a lie, he is a fake Azor Ahai (the typical 'king with a magical sword').

 

"Human heart in conflict with itself" could be Dany vacillating between conquering Westeros (demanding allegiance) or fighting the Others. There is not much "human heart in conflict with itself" when it comes to Aegon, since Dany could just marry him. She wants the Throne because she is the last Targaryen and partly as vengeance for her family, not because she is power-hungry (if she was, she wouldn't be dreaming about living in the house with the red door, she would be dreaming about sitting atop a Throne).

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

Why would Dany and Aegon go to conflict with each other?

This theory mostly rests around the ideas of:

1) Tyrion telling Dany that Aegon is fake, which makes no sense, since he shows fondness of both Aegon (he told JonCon to save him, Tyrion is sad that they have gone west) and Dany (who saved his life in the pits) and wants revenge on his family - the best way to achieve that is to unite both claims

2) Dany believing Aegon is fake due to the 'mummer's dragons' prophecy: Dany doesn't seem to put much stock into prophecies EXCEPT the personal ones - the three betrayals and the three heads of the dragon. Her belief in the second actually suggests that she would let Aegon try fly a dragon and accept him as a Targaryen is he succeeds. She didn't listen to Quaithe's warning about Quentyn or her misgivings about Reznak being the parfumed senechal, why would she do it with the mummer's dragon (if she even realizes that's Aegon - she doesn't read the book!).

3) Dany wanting the IT over family: from the text it seems Dany wants the IT because she is the 'last dragon'. She thinks that if the Targs have won, she might have married Rhaegar's son and she doesn't seem displeased by it.

4) Arianne seducing and marrying Aegon: first, this would be a terrible political choice since it would show that Dorne only supports Aegon - despite he is supposed to be Elia's son - if he marries a Dornish Princess and cast further doubts on his origins. Second, Arianne doesn't want to be Queen and be charge of 'feast and frolics' (that's something she hates), she wants to rule Dorne. Yes, she doesn't like the idea of King Quentyn, but the best way to avoid it is to support Aegon without marrying him, since (she believes) Dany would definitely choose the Aegon over the plain-faced Quentyn. She also tries to prove herself worthy of her father's trust, and seducing Aegon would absolutely go against it. Aegon is not even her type, he is not 'dark and dangerous'.

5) Aegon marrying someone other than Dany. He followed part of Tyrion's advice, that his aunt will only take him seriously if he invades and raises his banners on his own. Would he suddenly forget it, forget about the danger the dragons mean? Even JonCon thinks that need the dragons (and so Daenerys) to unite Westeros.

 

I don't really think the idea that the 'Second Dance' will be between Aegon and Dany is supported by the text*. Notably, not a single one of the characters living in-world (not even Tyrion) expects it to happen.

The constraints named by Lord Varys also cause a problem - there are only 2 books left, and the Others will invade and Dany will arrive at the end of TWOW/beginning of ADOS. There is no narrative place for building up and resolving such a conflict, and it's not really consistent with the characterization of Aegon or Dany ("this Mother of Dragons, this Breaker of Chains, is above all a rescuer").

 

*nor by the author: "The second Dance of Dragons does not have to mean Dany's invasion. George stopped himself short and said he shouldn't say anymore." - GRRM

Edited July 5, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Aldarion]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

I don't think they are useless, because the text presents the Dothraki invasion as a real danger (+the Dothraki as a parallel to Mongols) and the Unsullied are presented as one of the best infantry (which makes little sense since they are eunuchs). They are obviously weaker than Westerosi knights, though.

That said, I don't believe Dany will arrive to a united Westeros, she will probably arrive to a Westeros that is falling apart.

I am not sure that the Unsullied would even come along, they might want to be left behind in Slaver's Bay or Volantis and she would probably oblige. It's the Dothraki who will believe her the Stallion Who Mounts the World and follow her to the end of the world.

Problem is:

1) Just because something is portrayed as a danger doesn't mean it really is.

2) From what I remember, main worry was never Dothraki themselves, but rather the fact that having a military force at all would give a pretender legitimacy that would allow him to gather support.

3) I don't remember Unsullied being presented as the best infantry except by the seller and Jorah? And aside from being eunuchs, they are literally 3 000 years out of date compared to Westerosi armies.

I agree that Daenerys will arrive to Westeros that is falling apart - which will be necessary for her to have any success in anything, as without local support, she will have no chance. Yet some posters on the site still do not understand that.

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

I mean, Aegon could be the fake savior, he is the one built up as a typical saviour figure (the typical "hidden prince" trope).

The 'slayer of lies' vision definitely suggests it - Daenerys probably won't kill Stannis, she will prove that Stannis being Azor Ahai is a lie, he is a fake Azor Ahai (the typical 'king with a magical sword').

 

"Human heart in conflict with itself" could be Dany vacillating between conquering Westeros (demanding allegiance) or fighting the Others. There is not much "human heart in conflict with itself" when it comes to Aegon, since Dany could just marry him. She wants the Throne because she is the last Targaryen and partly as vengeance for her family, not because she is power-hungry (if she was, she wouldn't be dreaming about living in the house with the red door, she would be dreaming about sitting atop a Throne).

 

It could be, but the point is, Daenerys had been fed lies by Viserys about how Westerosi people will just rise up and greet her as a savior - and some members of her entourage (and perhaps even Daenerys herself by the time she sails for Westeros) actually believe that. *cough* Jorah Mormont *cough*

It doesn't matter whether Aegon is a fake savior (I don't think he is a savior at all, though he may well save Westeros from the Lannisters), what I am saying is that when Daenerys comes to Westeros, you will not see people just running towards her to accept her, with her just strolling into the Red Keep and everybody coming to bow to their rightful queen.

Daenerys can marry Aegon, yes - and I hope that will happen - but even so there are ways for it to go all wrong. What if Daenerys is declared dead and Aegon ends up marrying in Westeros? What if Daenerys gets convinced he is a fake and refuses any prospect of marriage?

38 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Why would Dany and Aegon go to conflict with each other?

This theory mostly rests around the ideas of:

1) Tyrion telling Dany that Aegon is fake, which makes no sense, since he shows fondness of both Aegon (he told JonCon to save him, Tyrion is sad that they have gone west) and Dany (who saved his life in the pits) and wants revenge on his family - the best way to achieve that is to unite both claims

2) Dany believing Aegon is fake due to the 'mummer's dragons' prophecy: Dany doesn't seem to put much stock into prophecies EXCEPT the personal ones - the three betrayals and the three heads of the dragon. Her belief in the second actually suggests that she would let Aegon try fly a dragon and accept him as a Targaryen is he succeeds. She didn't listen to Quaithe's warning about Quentyn or her misgivings about Reznak being the parfumed senechal, why would she do it with the mummer's dragon (if she even realizes that's Aegon - she doesn't read the book!).

3) Dany wanting the IT over family: from the text it seems Dany wants the IT because she is the 'last dragon'. She thinks that if the Targs have won, she might have married Rhaegar's son and she doesn't seem displeased by it.

4) Arianne seducing and marrying Aegon: first, this would be a terrible political choice since it would show that Dorne only supports Aegon - despite he is supposed to be Elia's son - if he marries a Dornish Princess and cast further doubts on his origins. Second, Arianne doesn't want to be Queen and be charge of 'feast and frolics' (that's something she hates), she wants to rule Dorne. Yes, she doesn't like the idea of King Quentyn, but the best way to avoid it is to support Aegon without marrying him, since (she believes) Dany would definitely choose the Aegon over the plain-faced Quentyn. She also tries to prove herself worthy of her father's trust, and seducing Aegon would absolutely go against it. Aegon is not even her type, he is not 'dark and dangerous'.

5) Aegon marrying someone other than Dany. He followed part of Tyrion's advice, that his aunt will only take him seriously if he invades and raises his banners on his own. Would he suddenly forget it, forget about the danger the dragons mean? Even JonCon thinks that need the dragons (and so Daenerys) to unite Westeros.

 

I don't really think the idea that the 'Second Dance' will be between Aegon and Dany is supported by the text*. Notably, not a single one of the characters living in-world (not even Tyrion) expects it to happen.

The constraints named by Lord Varys also cause a problem - there are only 2 books left, and the Others will invade and Dany will arrive at the end of TWOW/beginning of ADOS. There is no narrative place for building up and resolving such a conflict, and it's not really consistent with the characterization of Aegon or Dany ("this Mother of Dragons, this Breaker of Chains, is above all a rescuer").

 

*nor by the author: "The second Dance of Dragons does not have to mean Dany's invasion. George stopped himself short and said he shouldn't say anymore." - GRRM

Agreed - although as I noted, there are still things that could go wrong. I hope they won't, though.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

because the text presents the Dothraki invasion as a real danger (+the Dothraki as a parallel to Mongols)

The Dothraki are nowhere near as good as the Mongols, even if they were, Mongols were beaten by stone castles Westeros has in abundance. As @Aldarion has mentioned before, look at Mongols in Hungry after the Hungarians built proper stone castles. Emperor Friedrich II's strategy in case the Mongols invaded the HRE was to take all the supplies and put peasants in the castles as they knew Mongols were struggling with the castles (not to mention Mongols would struggle in the forests of the HRE). Westeros has huge castles that can easily accommodate lots of people. In addition, the terrain of Westeros is not favourable to a Dothraki invasion - mountains in the Vale, deserts in Dorne, thick forests in the Stormlands, marshes in the Neck... Only the Reach and parts of the Crownlands and Riverlands would be good for them, assuming they can even land at all and weren't just wiped out at sea by the royal fleet. As Aldarion says, it is using the Dothraki invasion as a rallying point for Targaryen loyalists that Robert is concerned about, not the Dothraki themselves.

Quote

I tell you, Ned, I do not like this marriage. There are still those in the Seven Kingdoms who call me Usurper. Do you forget how many houses fought for Targaryen in the war? They bide their time for now, but give them half a chance, they will murder me in my bed, and my sons with me. If the beggar king crosses with a Dothraki horde at his back, the traitors will join him."

Also, with winter now here, the Dothraki will have a big issue finding fodder for their horses. 

I find it hard to take the Dothraki seriously as a threat when they wear no armour but use short range arakh as a weapon of choice, their only strategy is 'charge', they are afraid of the Sea, they literally cannot build anything and are totally dependent on slaves to do so, the only people they have won against are garbage Essosi armies, their initial success was reliant on enemies being stupid and general power vacuum post Valyrian collapse, bronze age eunuch hoplites beat them, etc.

[astarkchoice]

Lots of issues being brought up again with danys forces sorta missing a lot of main points

1)grmm has yet to clarify how ANY force fights in westeros year long winter snowdrifts etc!! Such an event should be an almoat extinction level event for a medieval society  let alone one they wage wars through

2) the dothraki probably arent comming they are slavers and dont like sea water...it seems they arent part of danys new world

3) the unsullied have been discussed to death here but many miss the critical issue...theres barely 8-9k of them , shel probably lose some at mereens 2nd siege! AND be forced to leave some to stabilize slavers bay.....so  they will barely be city guard numbers let alone an army and shes ended the possibility of more being made!!!

4)her freedmen love her but  because shes  brought freedom to  their homes, few will wanna follow her to enslave a strange far away cold  kingdom! Now that said as a fire religion messiah thats.about to smash the slavers again (whichbwill probably kick off rebellions thatl end all slavery in essos forever)  she can probably recruit masses of the faithful

5) the ironborn may take her home but it seems  like most ironborn stories that shit will be largely self contained...the remaining greyjoys will probably kill euron themselves

6) dany has dorta bonded with one dragon..kt seems far more likely her time with the dothaki wil be about learning to bond with animals(like the dothraki are with horses) and nature  OR finding dragon taming for dummies scolls in vaes dothrak and/or a horn of her own!!!!

7) as for mercs 

The windblown : capable but the tattered prince sure as fuck aint getting pentos  its a ridiculous ask and even if dany agreed the free cities like bravos amy have a thing or 2 to say about a 

Stormcrows: daario is ridiculous but fairs fair these guys seem capable ...but.daario  clearly cant go with dany to westeros and his little force is barely 500 strong

2nd sons :now these guys probably WILL go to westeros with tyrion..where he will.fuck them over in amusing fashion  ! Revenge for the strongarmed blackmail deal he had to sign

Edited July 5, 2023 by astarkchoice

[csuszka1948]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

The Dothraki are nowhere near as good as the Mongols, even if they were, Mongols were beaten by stone castles Westeros has in abundance. As @Aldarion has mentioned before, look at Mongols in Hungry after the Hungarians built proper stone castles. Emperor Friedrich II's strategy in case the Mongols invaded the HRE was to take all the supplies and put peasants in the castles as they knew Mongols were struggling with the castles (not to mention Mongols would struggle in the forests of the HRE). Westeros has huge castles that can easily accommodate lots of people. In addition, the terrain of Westeros is not favourable to a Dothraki invasion - mountains in the Vale, deserts in Dorne, thick forests in the Stormlands, marshes in the Neck... Only the Reach and parts of the Crownlands and Riverlands would be good for them, assuming they can even land at all and weren't just wiped out at sea by the royal fleet. As Aldarion says, it is using the Dothraki invasion as a rallying point for Targaryen loyalists that Robert is concerned about, not the Dothraki themselves.

 

I know that the Dothraki - as portrayed - are not as good as the Mongols (who were much more innovative and much less backwards), but I think GRRM meant to have them as good as them. :-)

Yes, I know how the Hungarians have dealt with Mongols, but the Mongols didn't have dragons which can set castles aflame.

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, csuszka1948 said:

but the Mongols didn't have dragons which can set castles aflame.

Dothraki don't either...

If Drogo hadn't died and staged his invasion, Daenerys has no dragons. Daenerys also lacks riders for 2/3 dragons and hers are not full grown, and this doesn't solve the issue of there being no fodder for their horses (or food for them or anyone else really).