Original AFFC Outline

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It is an unfinished chapter and likely reflects a status quo prior to Cersei and Margaery's arrest. The talk referencing KL in that chapter makes no mention of Kevan's death, the trials of the queens, or the threat Tommen's reign faces both from Aegon and the High Septon and thus doesn't fit with events after the Epilogue. The chapter was originally supposed to be in ADwD, so it would have taken place before the Epilogue. The Epilogue already made it clear that Cersei isn't going to send Harys Swyft to Braavos. The Small Council and Mace/Kevan decided that already. And the guy who might take his head if he were to fail is not going to be some queen - be it Cersei or Margaery - but Mace and Randyll.

Yea, the KL info we get from that chapter doesn't makes sense. Plus Cersei was against paying loans to the Iron Bank. She wouldn't send Harrys Swyft to ask for a new loan, when she was the one who thought it was a smart move to not pay them in the first place.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It is an unfinished chapter and likely reflects a status quo prior to Cersei and Margaery's arrest.

It's a chapter that GRRM has been working on for a long time, but I wouldn't say that it's unfinished. At the time when he released it as a sample it was supposed to appear, as it is, in Winds, and before that in Dance. So it was very much finished at the time it was made public.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, sifth said:

Yea, the KL info we get from that chapter doesn't makes sense. Plus Cersei was against paying loans to the Iron Bank. She wouldn't send Harrys Swyft to ask for a new loan, when she was the one who thought it was a smart move to not pay them in the first place.

Yeah, also Swyft seems in no hurry to return to KL in the sample chapter nor is he aghast or sad over the death of his son-in-law - who happens to be Ser Kevan Lannister. That makes both little sense as Tommen's government is in dire needs of funds at that point, so he would either be determined to get more money as quickly as possible ... or jump on the chance to settle in comfortable exile in Braavos.

But he does neither. He acts like a guy who has all the time in the world and who isn't under any immediate pressure.

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It's a chapter that GRRM has been working on for a long time, but I wouldn't say that it's unfinished. At the time when he released it as a sample it was supposed to appear, as it is, in Winds, and before that in Dance. So it was very much finished at the time it was made public.

It was never supposed to appear as it was in ADwD as Cersei would never have been the queen who sent Harys Swyft to Braavos. That makes sense only in a setting in which the chapter is the first or one of the first Arya chapters of AFfC - at a time when Cersei was still completely in control of the government in KL.

Any scenario in which 'Mercy' is going to be published unchanged and which has Cersei as the queen in question would push it back further and further as there would be a number of Cersei (or other new KL POVs) covering a number of events:

- Aftermath of the double murder.

- Trial(s) of the queen(s).

- Plans for a coup.

- Execution of a successful coup against the Tyrells and/or the Faith with the result of Cersei being completely and unquestionably in charge.

- Decision to keep on Ser Harys Swyft as Master of Coin and sending him to Braavos as Kevan and Mace intended.

That would need a number of chapters which would, most likely, not be included in the book in row after each other, but with a number of other chapters in-between.

In the aftermath of Kevan's death it is already a bit of stretch that Swyft would stay on as Master of Coin. His son-in-law was his only ally on the council, so we can expect him to half flee from KL to Braavos since the mission he was already given gives him an excuse. The idea that he would stay at court long enough for Cersei to magically regain power - and then to work for him or she keeping this useless craven as Master of Coin (remember: Swyft and Pycelle betrayed her by offering the regency to Kevan and refusing to use the City Watch to free her from the Great Sept - which they could have done or tried to do before Randyll Tarly and Mace Tyrell showed up in the city) - is very far-fetched indeed.

If Cersei were to regain the regency Harys would either die or be dismissed. Cersei would appoint new men she could trust. Swyft she never trusted, he was only added to her Small Council because he served as a kind of hostage against Kevan.

She would certainly not send Swyft to Braavos where he might fuck things up further or never return to KL.

In general, though, all sample chapters are not, in fact, finished and open to revision. We see this, for instance, with the Tyrion, Dany, and Jon sample chapters from ADwD.

The Alayne sample chapter is so unfinished that it is still riddled with typos.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It was never supposed to appear as it was in ADwD

“Then it was going to be the concluding Arya chapter in A Dance with Dragons. But it seemed more like an opening chapter than a closing one, so shortly before ADWD was published my editor and I agreed to remove it from Dance and shift it over into Winds”.

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2014/03/27/i-broke-the-internet/

Edited December 10, 2023 by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

On 12/9/2023 at 8:57 PM, sifth said:

Yea, the KL info we get from that chapter doesn't makes sense. Plus Cersei was against paying loans to the Iron Bank. She wouldn't send Harrys Swyft to ask for a new loan, when she was the one who thought it was a smart move to not pay them in the first place.

I just realised that if it was supposed to appear in Dance, then it can’t take place after the trials, since the trials don’t occur in Dance.

[Mithras]

Think of it like this. If GRRM included the Mercy chapter in ADwD, then he would have to write and include the next Cersei chapter(s) featuring the trials.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I just realised that if it was supposed to appear in Dance, then it can’t take place after the trials, since the trials don’t occur in Dance.

Indeed.

But more importantly, trials or no trials, the Epilogue would take place after both the Mercy chapter and whatever Cersei trial chapters there could have been in ADwD.

If we take George at face value in the well-known quote you gave he would have to do a lot more than deciding shortly before publication of ADwD to move the Mercy chapter to TWoW. Instead, he would have to rewrite the Epilogue so as to have Swyft gone there and erase all the build-up for Swyft hiring Raff (which is connected to Red Ronnet Connington talk, etc.) since all that would have to have happened earlier, supposedly in some Cersei chapters, reorder events in his mind or in Cersei chapters already existing in some form so now the trials take place after the double murder from the Epilogue.

This would be no small feat.

Also, of course, it makes absolutely no sense to imagine that Cersei could have been 'in charge' again to the degree that Cersei could threaten to execute Kevan's father-in-law on a whim. Kevan was the duly appointed Lord Regent and Cersei winning her trial doesn't magically restore her to the regency or gives her otherwise the power to run the government.

It is rather obvious that whatever the Mercy chapter is ... it is no accurate source on what transpired in KL after the Epilogue in its sample chapter form. Just as the Arianne sample chapters aren't, either.

And I daresay having the book conclude with the double murder in the manner presented was something that was rather crucial to the conception of the entire book. George has hinted at Varys being still in KL for a long, long time before the publication of ADwD (my location line prior to ADwD was 'supposedly somewhere in King's Landing').

If Cersei has a chance for regaining the regency or some other fraction of real power in Tommen's government, it could only happen after Pycelle and Kevan are dead and gone. But even then a coup which puts her in charge in the way she seems to be in the Mercy chapters seems very unlikely. At least in the foreseeable future. With another army of Westermen and/or Euron's help she could eventually rise to the top again ... but she lacks both right now. And that is very intentional as the plot seems set up a swift collapse of the Lannister-Tyrell regime and Aegon's s rise to the Iron Throne in record time.

The way 'the queen' is talked about in the sample chapter clearly is Cersei as she was pre-arrest and pre-walk. In fact, considering the timeline it is also quite odd that the scum guys don't exchange stories about the naked whore queen in the gutters - not to mention that it is not part of general talk in Braavos at this time.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, Mithras said:

Think of it like this. If GRRM included the Mercy chapter in ADwD, then he would have to write and include the next Cersei chapter(s) featuring the trials.

Not necessarily. It's mentioned in the ADWD epilogue that the trials are supposed to take place a few days after it, so they can easily be featured in Winds.

[Mithras]

2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Not necessarily. It's mentioned in the ADWD epilogue that the trials are supposed to take place a few days after it, so they can easily be featured in Winds.

But the Mercy chapter takes place after the trials. GRRM wouldn't leave all that stuff offscreen. That means he would also have to write a new Epilogue as well.

[Hippocras]

Chapters are not always chronological. Just saying.

[sifth]

6 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Not necessarily. It's mentioned in the ADWD epilogue that the trials are supposed to take place a few days after it, so they can easily be featured in Winds.

Yes, but the word from Kings Landing makes no mention of Cersei's trial or the double murder. Also why would Cersei even send Harrys to the Iron Bank, to get a new loan, when it was her idea to oppose the Iron Bank in the first place. It's clear as day, the Mercy chapter, as we read it, takes place after the time skip, that never happened.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Chapters are not always chronological. Just saying.

Not in the order of events, but they are ordered in such a way that the reader is not spoiled about crucial events that happened at another place around the same time or somewhat earlier. POVs can and are only ahead of other characters if and when it doesn't spoil things.

If it seems some things are spoiled - like with Cersei receiving news about Davos' execution at White Harbor, say - then we have every reason to not take such news at face value. Ditto with the news about the Hound's death, etc.

4 hours ago, sifth said:

Yes, but the word from Kings Landing makes no mention of Cersei's trial or the double murder. Also why would Cersei even send Harrys to the Iron Bank, to get a new loan, when it was her idea to oppose the Iron Bank in the first place. It's clear as day, the Mercy chapter, as we read it, takes place after the time skip, that never happened.

Not only that, but the Epilogue gives us the new and final version of how and why Raff and Harys end up in Braavos - as per a decision by the Small Council made under Kevan and Mace and as per informal advice Kevan gave Harys shortly thereafter (to hire some of the Mountain's men who arrives in KL with Red Ronnet Connington).

I don't think Cersei 1 of TWoW will necessary feature Harys Swyft or Raff, but we should get a few lines about Cersei hearing or learning that Harys Swyft effectively fled the city in the wake of the double murder, giving the earlier decision of the Small Council to send him to Braavos as a pretext/excuse.

When Cersei was arrested, the rats fled court (Aurane Waters, the Merryweathers). The double murder should have a similar effect - especially with the last remaining Lannister crony on the council. Even more so as Harys as Kevan's father-in-law would very likely fear that the unknown murderers might actually want to put him down, too. He was rather close to the guy.

It is also pretty easy to make the Mercy chapter fit with current events. All George has to do is to change the talk of the soldiers (they could gossip about the walk of shame or the double murder or even about non-political issues) and, perhaps, change the description of Harys Swyft's looks (he should be more haunted) and his general mission in Braavos.

Shouldn't take much time/effort.

I think the best way would be to have Harys in Braavos as an effective refugee who feigns or pretends to be there on the Iron Throne's business. The idea that he would be keen to return to the viper's nest that's KL soon or at all would be a big stretch. At least not before the situation there has been really resolved.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

17 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Chapters are not always chronological. Just saying.

It’s always possible that the outcome of the trials and the news of Kevan’s death simply haven’t reached Harys Swift and his entourage yet.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It’s always possible that the outcome of the trials and the news of Kevan’s death simply haven’t reached Harys Swift and his entourage yet.

That was how I read it at the time anyway. It doesn't mean GRRM won't change it a bit before publication but certainly my interpretation was that the news had not reached Braavos yet.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It’s always possible that the outcome of the trials and the news of Kevan’s death simply haven’t reached Harys Swift and his entourage yet.

That would make little sense in context as Cersei sending Swyft would have to mean the trial(s) already took place when he left - not to mention Cersei seizing power again somehow, against overwhelming odds. Mace Tyrell is Hand of the King right now, and while she might believe the Tyrells murdered Kevan and Pycelle, the Tyrells themselves are likely to believe she was behind the double murder - and they have the power to arrest her, accuse her of being behind the double murder, and condemn her in the same kind of sham trial that declared Tyrion guilty of regicide.

Cersei herself has no power to arrest and accuse Mace or Margaery or Randyll in a similar manner.

In fact, as Cersei is effectively under house arrest and constantly watched and attended by the High Septon's septa guardians, it is hard to imagine that she could even try to hatch a scheme to do anything. She couldn't even talk alone with Qyburn right now. And the Tyrells have no reason or motivation to ease the conditions of her house arrest.

[Hippocras]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That would make little sense in context as Cersei sending Swyft would have to mean the trial(s) already took place when he left - not to mention Cersei seizing power again somehow, against overwhelming odds. Mace Tyrell is Hand of the King right now, and while she might believe the Tyrells murdered Kevan and Pycelle, the Tyrells themselves are likely to believe she was behind the double murder - and they have the power to arrest her, accuse her of being behind the double murder, and condemn her in the same kind of sham trial that declared Tyrion guilty of regicide.

Cersei herself has no power to arrest and accuse Mace or Margaery or Randyll in a similar manner.

In fact, as Cersei is effectively under house arrest and constantly watched and attended by the High Septon's septa guardians, it is hard to imagine that she could even try to hatch a scheme to do anything. She couldn't even talk alone with Qyburn right now. And the Tyrells have no reason or motivation to ease the conditions of her house arrest.

She had already sent Swift in the later KL chapters.

[The Wondering Wolf]

On 12/13/2023 at 5:02 PM, Hippocras said:

She had already sent Swift in the later KL chapters.

Isn't Swyft still around when Kevan is killed?

[Hippocras]

7 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Isn't Swyft still around when Kevan is killed?

The decision to send him was done. As for if he had left or not the Mercy chapter makes it seem so but that is all we have and it could change before publication.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

The decision to send him was done. As for if he had left or not the Mercy chapter makes it seem so but that is all we have and it could change before publication.

The entire point was that the idea that Mercy could have featured in ADwD it the sample chapter form would only make sense if the Epilogue is heavily rewritten and a lot of Cersei chapters are finished and added to ADwD to set up a scenario where 'the queen' [Cersei] sends Swyft to Braavos.

George's own words make that very unlikely as the decision to move Mercy to TWoW was apparently made shortly before publication of ADwD.

It is much more likely that the sample chapter as given is a slightly earlier version as Swyft will leave KL only after the discovery of the double murder and George had no intention to spoil what is going to happen in the city after the corpses are found.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Lord Varys

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The entire point was that the idea that Mercy could have featured in ADwD it the sample chapter form would only make sense if the Epilogue is heavily rewritten and a lot of Cersei chapters are finished and added to ADwD to set up a scenario where 'the queen' [Cersei] sends Swyft to Braavos.

You are really confusing me as to what you are trying to say. She already DID send him to Braavos. We just never specifically saw him leave.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Hippocras