Match the Maidens - 133 AC

[Hippocras]

This thread is mostly just fun, but also an exercise in tracing alliances during Aegon III’s reign.

So be silly wherever there is no reason not to be, but wherever something deeper might be going on, do try to be a detective!

These are the maidens mentioned as potential brides for Aegon III in 133:

The daughter of the Prince of Pentos

The sister of the Archon of Tyrosh

"Daughters of ancient houses" from Myr

(All 3 cities then embroiled in the Daughters’ War)

Alyssa Royce - marriage possibly part of Vale conflict/resolution

Anya Weatherwax - married someone else from Discworld

Barba Bolton - returned with food for the North. Married a Northman

Cassandra Baratheon - married Walter Brownhill

Elinor Massey - sister or niece of Elinda ( who was lady in waiting of Rhaenyra). Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

Ellyn Baratheon - Might be an ancestor of Ellyn Reyne, so married a Westerlands or western Reach House

Henrietta Woodhull - marriage possibly part of Vale conflict/resolution

Jeyne Merryweather - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

Jeyne Mooton - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

Jeyne Smallwood - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

Lyra Hayford - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

Moriah Qorgyle - Matched with Qyle Martell? 

Myrmadora Haen - Rival House of Rogare? Died 2 years later.

Myrielle Peake - Married Peake ally (Ambrose? Leygood?)

Patricia Redwyne - probably cousin of Lyonel Hightower, married an ally of Samantha Tarly’s

Rosamund Darry - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

Ysabel Staunton - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

 

Not known to have been at the Ball:

Sansara Tarly - Samantha’s smart sister. I speculate married Torrhen Manderly or his son, became mother of Jeyne (Manderly) Stark

Tyshara Lannister - Reputation dammage. married below station, then ancestor of Tysha?

Cerelle Lannister - Possibly an ancestor of Cyrelle Tarbeck

Bethany Hightower - Ancestor of at least one of the other Bethanys (Blackwood, Bracken, Redwyne, Rosby, Ryswell). 

Edited January 13 by Hippocras

[SaffronLady]

8 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Myrmadora

Is it just me or does this name look a little too Myrish...

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, SaffronLady said:

Is it just me or does this name look a little too Myrish...

does seem so. Daughters’s war, full family murder… what did GRRM have in mind there eh?

[Hippocras]

Sam’s suggestions without first names:

Ambrose, Beesbury, Cobb, Costayne, Florent, Grimm, Hightower, Redwyne, and Varner

[Hippocras]

Not a Maiden, but I feel reasonably confident predicting that we will eventually learn that Lyonel Baratheon descended from Lyonel Hightower and Samantha Tarly, and of course would have done so via Royce Baratheon, the brother of the 4 Storms.

It is not just the name Lyonel, which could always be more of a coincidence, but also the fact that his successor as Lord of Storm's end was called Ormund

[Gilbert Green]

On 1/13/2024 at 10:22 AM, SaffronLady said:

Is it just me or does this name look a little too Myrish...

Myrmadora seems derived from Myrmidon.  A Greek tribe, but the word has martial implications, as they appear in the Iliad as the band of soldiers who follow Achilles

[Hippocras]

Henrietta Woodhull, transformed by her humiliating experience at the ball, vowed revenge on all men. She formed a pirate gang with Ysabel Staunton and Elinor Massey that plagued the East coast of Westeros for many years, until Aegon III was « persuaded » under duress, to issue a royal apology.

The three secretly married each other.

[Thomaerys Velaryon]

On 1/13/2024 at 4:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Alyssa Royce - marriage possibly part of Vale conflict/resolution

Jeyne Arryn died in 134 AC, there was no issue in the Vale to resolve in 133 AC since Ser Arnold was the clear her heir. It is only when her last testament was made public after her death that the conflict started.

On 1/13/2024 at 4:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Ellyn Baratheon - Might be an ancestor of Ellyn Reyne, so married a Westerlands or western Reach House

Why ? Just because they have the same surname ? If anything, it is Ellyn Baratheon that has more chance to be named after Ellyn Caron since Baratheon's mother was a Caron.

On 1/13/2024 at 4:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Henrietta Woodhull - marriage possibly part of Vale conflict/resolution

House Woodwull is a very very minor family being only a landed House on the island of the Paps and vassals of House Elesham. So minor in fact that Henrietta was the last maiden presented to Aegon III. A Woodhull marriage would change nothing for an important problem such as the Eyrie succession.

On 1/13/2024 at 4:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Jeyne Merryweather [...] Jeyne Mooton [...] Jeyne Smallwood - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

The lineage of House Targaryen is pretty well documented up until the Dance, I seriously doubt any of those had some Targaryen blood. The Mooton being on the coast and close to the Crownlands make them the more likely House of the three. So maybe there is a drop of Targaryen blood in House Mooton via a Velaryon marriage or something.

The Smallwoods are relatively minor House being the vassal of the Vances. However, they seem to be respected for their martial prowess being in the first line of defense in case of a westermen invasion. I don't think the Smallwoods are powerful enough to be considered a strong candidate for a Targaryen king.

In fact when Alyssa Velaryon proposed to wed the young King Jaehaerys with one of the Houses loyal to Aegon the Uncrowned she cited the Vances but not the Smallwoods despite both having fought for Aegon.

On 1/13/2024 at 4:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Lyra Hayford - Obviously considered competition for Myrielle so may have had some degree of Targaryen lineage. Reputation damage so…

The Hayfords are probably the closest House to King's Landing geographically speaking and they have an history of loyalty towards the Targaryens but I would not put them as serious candidate for a Targaryen marriage. The Stokeworths, Rosbys and Darklyn seems all three to be more powerful.

On 1/13/2024 at 4:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Moriah Qorgyle, Myrmadora Haen, Myrielle Peake, Patricia Redwyne

All good possibilities. I agree with you here.

On 1/13/2024 at 4:13 PM, Hippocras said:

Not known to have been at the Ball:

Not all the poeple sharing the same first name must be related you know.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

Jeyne Arryn died in 134 AC, there was no issue in the Vale to resolve in 133 AC since Ser Arnold was the clear her heir. It is only when her last testament was made public after her death that the conflict started.

Joffrey was her heir, not Arnold.

And these ladies showing up at the ball, unmarried, in 133 in no way means they had found anyone to marry before the following year. Chances are very high, in fact, that several of the Vale maidens ended up in alliances related either to the succession conflict itself, or its resolution.

 

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

Why ? Just because they have the same surname ? If anything, it is Ellyn Baratheon that has more chance to be named after Ellyn Caron since Baratheon's mother was a Caron.

Yes. You are not accounting for passing generations. Ellyn is a first name that can and does repeat in families, both the PATERNAL line, so Baratheons etc., and the MATERNAL line, so whatever family the girl married in to. Sometime these names are the only clue we have of where girls might have gone, and where their mothers might have come from, tricky as it can be as a clue.

Ellyn Caron was definitely an ancestor of Ellyn Baratheon. That is known. It follows that the name Ellyn may have repeated once again as a reference to the maternal line in the female line descendants of Ellyn Baratheon.

But it is more than that. The conflict between Ellyn Reyne and Tywin Lannister was based in arrogance, and had historical roots. Her arrogance would have been underpinned by lineage. Her rebellious nature also fits with the Baratheon history of rebellion.

The Baratheons and Lannisters were among the most prominent Green supporters during the Dance, and most of the Westerlands, including the Reynes also fought for the Greens as Lannister bannermen. So these families shared interests and allegiances during the reign of Aegon III.

 

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

House Woodwull is a very very minor family being only a landed House on the island of the Paps and vassals of House Elesham. So minor in fact that Henrietta was the last maiden presented to Aegon III. A Woodhull marriage would change nothing for an important problem such as the Eyrie succession.

Agreed. But her eventual match would nevertheless have been related to the political dynamics at that point in history. It doesn’t need to change the planet’s orbit to be true: The girl would have married into a family the Woodhulls had a reason to ally with during the years 133-140. And they were a Vale family.

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

The lineage of House Targaryen is pretty well documented up until the Dance, I seriously doubt any of those had some Targaryen blood.

No it is not. Not at all. The only things that are documented are things that GRRM has worked out sufficiently. In other places we have garden seeds and story hints instead. We KNOW that house Massey was related by blood to House Targaryen at the time of the conquest, but we have no indication exactly how in either the Velaryon or Targaryen family trees. This is just one example. The Celtigars also had some not-yet specified connection, to Velaryons and/or Targayens.

Prunella Celtigar would have been Unwin Peake's ancestor, not even all that distant, and the family ties between Celtigars and Targaryens, though indirect, existed at the time of or immediately following the Conquest. So Myrielle had Targaryen descent by female line. So did most of her prominent competitors.

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

The Smallwoods are relatively minor House being the vassal of the Vances. However, they seem to be respected for their martial prowess being in the first line of defense in case of a westermen invasion. I don't think the Smallwoods are powerful enough to be considered a strong candidate for a Targaryen king.

Fourth daughters of third sons of a daughter never make the same level of match as those ahead of them in their family line of succession. They end up married to minor Houses.

It does not reduce their lineage, however, if a match specifically with Valyrian blood of some kind, and preferably Targaryen is considered a qualification. Which it would be if aiming to marry in to a family with a history of marrying their own to preserve their bloodlines.

I would say that if Peake considered a maiden from a minor House enough of a threat to Myrielle’s chances that he arranged to have her reputation smeared, she had to have either been extremely beautiful, or have had Targaryen blood.

 

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

In fact when Alyssa Velaryon proposed to wed the young King Jaehaerys with one of the Houses loyal to Aegon the Uncrowned she cited the Vances but not the Smallwoods despite both having fought for Aegon.

Smallwoods are Vance bannermen and almost certainly descend from them but some route (not necessarily direct).

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

The Hayfords are probably the closest House to King's Landing geographically speaking and they have an history of loyalty towards the Targaryens but I would not put them as serious candidate for a Targaryen marriage. The Stokeworths, Rosbys and Darklyn seems all three to be more powerful.

Targaryen blood does not need to mean a direct Targaryen marriage. It continually amazes me in these discussion how quickly people lose sight of the fact that a daughter marries into a DIFFERENT House, and her daughters marry into different Houses again, and furthermore, that daughters are rarely mentioned on the family trees unless GRRM has some specific story he wants to tell about them. They might show up in the tree eventually, once the story is worked out.

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

Not all the poeple sharing the same first name must be related you know.

I know. It is not rock solid evidence, merely a clue of influences and alliances, of which marriage is only one kind.

Edited January 15 by Hippocras

[SaffronLady]

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

We KNOW that house Massey was related by blood to House Targaryen at the time of the conquest, but we have no indication exactly how in either the Velaryon or Targaryen family trees.

You mean excluding Alara Massey?

[Hippocras]

36 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

You mean excluding Alara Massey?

Yes. Before, or contemporary with Alarra Massey.

Before the conquest, the Masseys were sworn to the Storm King, House Durrandon, but "had closer ties to House Targaryen of Dragonstone".

We do not know what those ties were, but it says House Targaryen, not House Velaryon, and the conquest was likely before Alarra came of age and married.

Edited January 15 by Hippocras

[Thomaerys Velaryon]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Joffrey was her heir, not Arnold.

Joffrey became the heir as Jeyne's last testament was read after her death. From a legal point of view Arnold was the heir up until that point.

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Yes. You are not accounting for passing generations. Ellyn is a first name that can and does repeat in families, both the PATERNAL line, so Baratheons etc., and the MATERNAL line, so whatever family the girl married in to. Sometime these names are the only clue we have of where girls might have gone, and where their mothers might have come from, tricky as it can be as a clue.

Maternal lines interviene very rarely in this story and only if it is convenient. You can speculate on maternal line if you want but it will not give a lot of result, there are simply too much unknown.

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

We KNOW that house Massey was related by blood to House Targaryen at the time of the conquest

No they only have better ties with the Targaryens rather than Durrandons. We do not know what those ties were (marriage, economic, friendship, fosterage, ...). It could be as simple as Triston Massey was fed up with the Durrandons and liked Aerion/Aegon Targaryen more.

Edited January 15 by Thomaerys Velaryon

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

Joffrey became the heir as Jeyne's last testament was read after her death. From a legal point of view Arnold was the heir up until that point.

Except that he was crazy and a captive in the sky cells. Arnold had backing from House Royce and their vassals no doubt because his wife, and mother of his son was a Royce. But otherwise people were vying to be named heir themselves, not falling in line behind the crazy prisoner.

 

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

Maternal lines interviene very rarely in this story and only if it is convenient. You can speculate on maternal line if you want but it will not give a lot of result, there are simply too much unknown.

I disagree. I think the maternal lines are going to turn out to be very very important. It is true that GRRM has lots of tree gaps to fill in in this regard, but there are plenty of oblique hints that indicate he has in fact put some thought into it and just just not want to reveal everything yet or has things to figure out first.

I think it is simply blind for people to read a series, where the key royal family has an explicit policy of marrying sisters and brothers to keep the bloodlines pure, and assume the origin and bloodline of the mothers is irrelevant. Bloodlines mattered to Targaryens.

 

1 hour ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

No they only have better ties with the Targaryens rather than Durrandons. We do not know what those ties were (marriage, economic, friendship, fosterage, ...). It could be as simple as Triston Massey was fed up with the Durrandons and liked Aerion/Aegon Targaryen more.

Alarra Massey was almost certainly the granddaughter by female line of one of Daemion Targaryen's brothers Aelyx or Baelon, or possibly his uncle Maegon. In two consecutive generations the Lordship passed to a younger brother instead of a direct heir. While this no doubt occurs sometimes because the deceased Lord has no children at all, it also frequently occurs because the deceased Lord has only daughters.

It is painfully obvious that these family trees are incomplete. The number of story hints indicating family ties not yet explained are substantial. And either all these Targaryens had sisters who they married, but who are simply listed as "unknown wife" and never as daughters, or the Targaryen family was remarkably free of girls so they had no sisters and inter-married with other families. One or the other thing must be true, and both options result in the same conclusion: the tree is incomplete and the lines connecting pre-conquest families have not bee fully fleshed out.

Edited January 15 by Hippocras

[Thomaerys Velaryon]

32 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Arnold had backing from House Royce and their vassals no doubt because his wife, and mother of his son was a Royce.

Nope, Arnold was a squire at Runestone in his youth which created ties with House Royce. The Masseys and Targaryens's ties just before the Conquest could have been created in a similar way.

[Landis]

Torreo Haen = son of Saera Targaryen that looked like a young Jaehaerys, pressed his claim at the Great Council of 101 AC

Rises into the power vacuum left by the Rogares in Lys (who I'd suggest might be descended from dragonlords from Valyria, but aren't Targaryens) with the support of his mother and other members of the Old Blood in Volantis, particularly members of the elephant faction (one of Torreo's half brothers through Saera appears to be son of a Volantene triarch of the elephant faction), who, after going along with the tiger strategy to conquer the Disputed Lands at the end of the prior century (it is when this plan failed in 96 AC that Saera, in infamy, left Lys for Volantis as the Triarchy/Kingdom of the Three Daughters was formed in opposition to Volantene imperialism), are now wanting to control Lys economically, instead; Torreo's rise is sponsored so that he can facilitate this relationship. 

It stands to reason that Torreo's rise would not be looked on favourably by the Lyseni if they recognized that he was being backed by Saera and Volantis, but the fact that he, his brothers, his wife, all of his children (all daughters), and all followers were wiped out is not at all the Lyseni way of dealing with that kind of thing: they would sooner just remove the man from his position and sell all those people into slavery. Destroying the entire family line and household instead of trying to turn a profit from it strongly suggests that this was about eliminating a bloodline, and the only parties in the region that care more about blood than money are the Old Blood in Volantis and the Westerosi nobility. This said, the Targaryens are only actually a threat in Westeros; the Old Blood in Volantis is extremely likely to be both more ~purely Valyrian, and also less inbred than what is true of the Targaryens by 135 AC, and it stands to reason that many of the Old Blood would poo poo the Targaryens anyway, as they were likely lesser dragonlords than many of the families in Volantis may have been before the Doom (whatever "lesser dragonlord" means; fewer dragons? less money? by 135 AC it doesn't matter--the Targaryens no longer have dragons, and they are effectively bankrupt, while Volantis nobility are swimming in wealth, regardless of their lack of lizards). 

So yes, I would say that the most likely candidates for having assassinated Torreo, Myrmadora, and the entire Haen family would be one of the factions in Westeros. Myrmadora and all of her sisters were great grandchildren of Jaehaerys and Alysanne, putting them as close generationally to the Old King as Rhaenyra, Aegon II, Laena and Laenor Velaryon, Baela and Rhaena Targaryen, and Aegon III and Viserys II, which would make Myrmadora indisputably the best candidate for Aegon III's hand if passing over Baela and Rhaena. So long as they continued to flourish in Lys, and especially with the relationship to Volantis (in certain Westerosi minds, gods forbid the Haen daughters were wed to sons of Saera's son by the Volantene triarch), they would remain contenders for the Throne, or contenders to marry into it, and with Westeros already reeling from the impact of the Lysene Spring, I imagine there would be many seeking to eliminate any possibility of Lyseni returning to power positions in Westeros. 

Narratively, this ties off one of the (at least) three loose ends where Saera's bastards are concerned. What it also does is provides another source of conflict between Volantis and Westeros, which has popped up a couple of times, with Westeros seemingly stepping in to assist Lys, Myr, Tyrosh, and Pentos on a number of occasions in their struggles against Volantene expansionism. If we consider that at the time of his and his family's assassination, Torreo Haen was the son and half-brother of two significant members of the ruling Old Blood establishment in Volantis, that could easily be read by Volantis as a significant escalation of tensions in their relationship with Westeros and its nobility. Suddenly, you have Westeros willing to wipe out an entire bloodline? That's a major existential threat if you're one of these houses who have carefully cultivated their blood purity for generations since the Doom. 

So yeah, you have a few stories colliding here: conflicts over Targaryen exceptionalism (prompted by the conquest) in Westeros (which is now spilling out beyond Westerosi borders), debates over Lyseni self-determination (insofar as a slaving society can be self-determined), and existential threats to the imperial colonialism of Volantis and its Valyrian exceptionalism.

[Hippocras]

13 hours ago, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

Nope, Arnold was a squire at Runestone in his youth which created ties with House Royce. The Masseys and Targaryens's ties just before the Conquest could have been created in a similar way.

The two things are hardly or even rarely exclusive. A squire or ward can, and often is, married to a daughter. I think the squire relationship alone is insufficient to explain the Royces fighting his claim even after he had clearly gone insane. A blood link to his ambitious and very sane son (who was executed, triggering revenge instinct) would explain it.

We will have to see with the Masseys where exactly the link is, but the Targaryen bloodlines meant simply way too much to them for your hypothesis that Alarra was the first and only link to possibly be correct. There is absolutely no reason why brothers would ever marry sisters in this series if mothers were irrelevant to the dragon bond and Valyrian family heritage. The mothers were not random.

And yet we are talking about a point in the family trees where Aerion had married a Velaryon, meaning he had no sister to marry. Valaena was probably Daemon Velaryon's sister. Daemon himself either had a second sister to marry, or his own children descend from his "unknown wife" who had a small degree of Valyrian descent from a different family. That different family were either Velaryons or Masseys themselves, or they were the family that provided Alarra Massey's mother. Possibilities include House Celtigar, House Bar Emmon, or the "Petty Lord" descendants of Daenys the dreamer's second daughter. Aenar Targaryen, it is important to note, came to Dragonstone with siblings as well. Their descendants are not yet clarified in the family tree because it is not the main branch of House Targaryen. However it is very likely that by the time Aerion married Velaena, all of the descendants of Aenar's siblings and of Daenys's second daughter had either remarried into the main branch, died in wars if male, or married into second tier families that remained linked to the Targaryens and Velaryons. The prime candidates for this are those families located on Massey's Hook who had been involved in various rebellions and independent Kingdoms in opposition to the Storm Kings.

Edited January 16 by Hippocras

[The hairy bear]

@Hippocras

I think that you give far too much weight to the possibility that people that share the same name are related. Most Westerosi nobles share the same culture.

If anything, what we know from the lists of rulers that we have, suggests that with the only exception of the Targaryens  it is very rare for a Westerosi ruler to repeat names. See what has happened since the Conquest with the lords of the kingdoms of old:

• Stark: Torrhen, Brandon (Boisterous), Roderik, Brandon (Boastful), Walton, Alaric, Edric, Ellard, Benjen, Rickon, Cregan, Jonnel, Barthogan, Brandon, Rodwell, Beron, Donnor, William, Edwyle, Rickard, Eddard, Robb
• Lannister: Loren, Lyman, Tymond, Jason, Loreon, Damon, Tybolt, Cerelle, Gerold, Tytos, Tywin, Cersei
• Tully: Edmyn, Prentys, Grover, Elmo, Kermit, Medgar, Hoster, Edmure
• Greyjoy: Vickon, Goren, Dalton, Toron, Dagon, Alton, Torwyn, Loron, Quellon, Balon, Euron
• Arryn: Ronnel, Jonos, Hubert, Darnold, Rodrik, Jeyne, Joffrey, Donnel, Jasper, Jon, Robert
• Tyrell:Harlan, Theo, Bertrand, Martyn, Mathos, Lyonel, Leo, Luthor, Mace
• Baratheon: Orys, Rogar, Boremund, Borros, Olyver, Lyonel, Ormund, Steffon, Robert, Renly
• Martell: Meria, Nymor, Deria, Morion, Mara, Qoren, Aliandra, Maron, Doran

Except for the the name Brandon in the Stark family, that is repeated thrice, no other single name is repeated.

[Hippocras]

@The hairy bear

I actually have, many times, fully acknowledged that it is an imperfect clue.

But this is a writer writing a story. Names are a tool for indicating connections, influences, relationships. It is the author who decides to give a character a certain name, so if he has connections he wants to make between families and characters he will certainly make use of this tool. Particularly when it comes to descendants of females who cannot ever pass on their family name. People should be thinking about it from a storytelling perspective.

Could GRRM be simply choosing names at random all the time? Sure. But that is not really his style is it? He usually has reasons for his choices.

 

I actually find it weird how determined people are to see characters as NOT connected. There is only one family that marries brothers to sisters. Everyone else has relatives spreading like a virus all over the continent. Bigger branches with each generation.

Edited January 16 by Hippocras

[The hairy bear]

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It is the author who decides to give a character a certain name, so if he has connections he wants to make between families and characters he will certainly make use of this tool.  (...) Could GRRM be simply choosing names at random all the time? Sure. But that is not really his style is it?

Do we have any example of George doing that in the past? Has he given a name to a character so that we could make a connection to his obscure ancestry as a hint to a later revelation? I may be misremembering, but I don't recall any.

In fact, there have been situations where George could have used this "tool". If that was "really his style", wouldn't Rohanne Webber have been named Cersei? Wouldn't Galladon Tarth (Brienne's brother) have been named Duncan?

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I actually find it weird how determined people are to see characters as NOT connected.

It's not that I don't want to see characters as not connected. Of course most noble families will certainly be connected if you go far enough.  It's just that I believe that sharing a name doesn't have a significant impact on the likelihood of a recent connection.

Edited January 16 by The hairy bear

[Hippocras]

13 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

Do we have any example of George doing that in the past? Has he given a name to a character so that we could make a connection to his obscure ancestry as a hint to a later revelation? I may be misremembering, but I don't recall any.

Yes. Elaena's children. Jocelyn, Laena. Clearly meant to indicate House Penrose at that point in time descended from the line of Rhaenys, queen who never was.

Also the use of the names Royce and Ambrose as first names is very likely to be headed in this direction.

Beyond this, the evidence of names repeating in families is all over the various family trees that we actually have. So I don't know why you find it such a huge logical leap.

13 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

In fact, there have been situations where George could have used this "tool". If that was "really his style", wouldn't Rohanne Webber have been named Cersei? Wouldn't Galladon Tarth (Brienne's brother) have been named Duncan?

Since Rohanne Webber is already clearly indicated as an ancestor of Cersei's in the Lannister family tree, there is no need for further hints by other means on the issue. If he has a fully worked out family tree he no longer needs this tool does he? He is more likely to use it in cases where there IS no tree to prove the connection.

If Rohanne Webber's name indicates anything it is that someone in her family wanted to honour Rohanne of Tyrosh. That, in itself, is story development information, since Rohanne of Tyrosh was the matriarch of the Blackfyre line.

 

13 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

It's not that I don't want to see characters as not connected. Of course most noble families will certainly be connected if you go far enough.  It's just that I believe that sharing a name doesn't have a significant impact on the likelihood of a recent connection.

It is about association IMO. Ellyn Baratheon was one of the Four Storms. GRRM gave them an interesting story and part of that story was ambition, rebelliousness, and a drop of royal blood to go with it, which underpinned a certain arrogance and entitlement. Because of this, when we see the name Ellyn elsewhere in the series, we have those traits associated with the name more or less subconsciously. So we come to Ellyn Reyne, who provoked a rebellion in the Westerlands and had all of the above character traits.

Will we ever get a family tree for the Reynes and/or Baratheons that fully details a family connection? I would say probably not. That would just be data, not storytelling. All we really need are the slightest hints via similarities of events, similarities of personality, as well as historical reasons for these families to be connected.