Manderlys, Umbers and Rodrik in Bran II ACoK

[Moon Man]

Has anyone ever discussed the fishy circumstances of Rodik ordering the Umbers to provide lumber for the Manderly naval plan in Bran II ACoK? I'd love to see some links or have a discussion on this. I'll tell you what I mean.

The Repetitive Structure of the Harvest Festival Meetings

In Bran II ACoK, Bran wakes to a Winterfell full of guests for the Harvest Festival. The chapters is largely structured by the audiences each of the Stark bannermen have with Bran as "the Stark in Winterfell", and heavily stresses the need to seek approval from King Robb on all new matters brought before the high seat. That is, except in the case of the Umbers contributing to the Manderly naval plan. Which is more than passing strange, and could indicate something conspiratorial.

The Manderly Naval Plan

The meetings are administered by Rodrik and Luwin. Before the audiences begin, Luwin implores a wistful Bran to "Listen, and it may be that you will learn something of what lordship is all about." And listen he does, "to old men speak of things he only half understood." The first meeting is with Wyman Manderly. He petitions for approval of new customs officers, pitches minting coin for Robb, and then preposes the building of a war fleet. "Grant me the gold and within the year I will float you sufficient galleys to take Dragonstone and King's Landing both." Bran likes the idea but, as instructed by Luwin, says nothing.

Then comes the first invocation of the motif that will define the chapter but for one important contradiction. "Ser Rodrik promised only to send the proposal on to Robb for his consideration, while Maester Luwin scratched at the parchment." Here we see that the administrators claim no authority to approve proposals brought before Winterfell while the King in the North is away at war. They merely offer to bring it before Robb and await his will on the matter. Luwin is taking minutes of the meeting which will, presumably, be sent off to Robb in some form by raven.

The Hornwood Issue

Then, after midday meal, Manderly makes the first mention of Lady Hornwood's situation and his own proposals of marriage, and then brings up is captive son. Rodrik does directly instruct Manderly not to take any deals from the Lannisters, but it's obvious that this is a matter of settled policy that all the bannermen and Rodrik know Robb's feelings on.

The next morning, Lady Hornwood herself discusses the harvest and winter storage, brings up "the bastard of Bolton" for the first time, and mentions her marriage prospects. Rodrik's responses are reassurances of the basic responsibility of Winterfell to uphold the law in the north and protect bannermen from each other.

The Umber Contradiction

On the third morning of audiences it gets interesting. Mors and Hother Umber come before the high seat. Mors immediately proposes marriage to Lady Hornwood. Once again, Rodrik promises only to bring the proposal before the king.

Hother, coincidentally, has come seeking ships. Longships and sailors to help defend the Bay of Seals from wildling incursion. Rodrik is quick to notice the opportunity and the following exchange occurs:

"You have forests of tall pine and old oak. Lord Manderly has shipwrights and sailors in plenty. Together you ought to be able to float enough longships to guard both your coasts."

"Manderly?" Mors Umber snorted. "That great waddling sack of suet? His own people mock him as Lord Lamprey, I've heard. The man can scarce walk. If you stuck a sword in his belly, ten thousand eels would wriggle out."

"He is fat," Ser Rodrik admitted, "but he is not stupid. You will work with him, or the king will know the reason why." And to Bran's astonishment, the truculent Umbers agreed to do as he commanded, though not without grumbling.

Somewhat of a departure from the response to the original Manderly proposal. It's possible of course that in the time between the lunch break on day one and the start of the morning Umber audience on day three (something like 44 hours) they have sent and received back a raven carrying instructions from Robb to coordinate the Manderly naval plan with haste and at their discretion. I will return to this shortly.

Later on day three the Glover steward comes before Bran and company. They discuss harvest policy and the Hornwood bastard who is ward to Lady Glover. It's here "that Bran soon realized that it was the steward, not Lady Glover, who truly ruled at Deepwood Motte." This highlights the potential power of the position Rodrik holds in Robb's kingdom a page after he gives that order to the Umbers.

Bran Sees the Pattern

On day four Bran reveals what he has learned, as if to make sure we are paying attention as well. Leobold Tallheart discusses his nephew's raising of a company of lances and possible plans to go South and join Robb. Rodrik instructs that no such action is to be taken, as it has not been ordered so by the king. Tallheart then brings up the Hornwood issue, suggesting that his own son be named heir to the Hornwood lands. This time it's Bran who "knew what to say. "Thank you for the notion, my lord," he blurted out before Ser Rodrik could speak. "We will bring the matter to my brother Robb. Oh, and Lady Hornwood." He had been listening.

Every new proposal that is brought before Winterfell in the absence of it's king, save one, is taken to be passed to Robb for his approval. Rodrik and Luwin issue a few orders on grain storage policy and other matters for which it's easy to guess they already have instructions and have been empowered to cary them out. But everything new is a matter for the king. Except the order given to the Umbers to provide lumber for the Manderly naval plan. What could this mean?

Clues of Conspiracy

There are other fishy things about the Umber audience and the Manderly plan. Firstly, the coincidence that they are also looking for a navy. Secondly, their impolitic resistance to dealing with Manderly at all. Suspicious as I am by nature, it occurs to me that these could be related.

I'm always suspicious of the personal, idealistic motivations given by the characters for their political choices. For example, I am immediately suspicious that the undying loyalty of the Manderlys is actually motivated by their gratitude for the Starks of old taking in their itinerant, displaced house and giving them Whiteharbor hundreds of years earlier. A case made explicitly as a performance, I might add, in Davos II ADwD. In the real world, these kind of political narratives are superstructural, the facade over the more material motivations and structural forces that shape history and politics. I tend to think that is how Martin writes it, but that is a discussion for another time.

The point is the Umbers rude protestations that they would ever have anything to do with the Manderlys sounds like bull. It's also a great cover against anyone (readers included) getting it in their head that there is, in fact, no naval coincidence at all. By scoffing at the concept of working with Manderly on a navy, they loudly deny, without anyone asking, that they had consulted on the matter before arriving. Suspicious.

Over Robb's Head or with His Approval?

The chapter is structure around repeating over and over again the importance of deffering to King Robb for any novel decisions. In the last audience, in case we haven't noticed, Bran helps us see the pattern by demonstrating that he has seen it so clearly as to blurt it out of turn, impressing his minders. This should be a strong clue to us that the author is trying to highlight the contradictory example of the Umbers being ordered by Rodrik to cooperate on the Manderly navy plan.

Could Winterfell have actually gotten approval, unmentioned by our author, for the navy and instructions to coordinated it as best they saw fit in the 44 hours they hade to turn around Raven communication with Robb? I have no idea. The speed of raven communication isn't something I'm really interested in discussing here. Though I would guess this chapter has been used in the past to speculate about raven travel time.

Additionally, seems to me that Robb has left Riverrun well before this time. So there is the added question of whether he is keeping Winterfell apprised of his address on his secret rive into the Westerlands. Seems risky and complicated. This point is impossible to grasp on the first read or without a lot of research that has been done by readers. The next point is plainer to see.

There is also some evidence that Luwin is not sending off minutes to Robb at every meal break. After the last audience and the final discussion of the Hornwood conundrum, Rodrik and Luwin discuss all the proposals they've heard and Rodrik says, "We must think on this carefully. Robb should have our best counsel before he makes his decision." This cold imply that they are holding back the minutes, waiting to discuss them all and make recommendations before sending anything to Robb. Indeed, this could be the purpose of the repeatedly discussed Hornwood issue, which is first brought up at the first meeting with Manderly. This invocation of sending their "best counsel" connects the first and last meetings with this idea of delaying those ravens.

The Real Questions are Not About Ravenry

The question is this: Is the inclusion of perhaps just enough time for a raven to make the round trip built into the timeline of the meetings (which is easily tracked) to allow for Rodrik to confirm that the Manderly plan has been approved by Robb and is going forward? Or is the inclusion of this 44 hours intended by our author to throw us off the sent of something fishy when we begin to look into the odd case of Rodrik's order to the Umbers? We could easily conclude that because it is possible that they've communicated with Robb that they must have, because Rodrik and the Manderlys couldn't possibly be up to anything shady. But of course they could. This is the game of thrones, after all.

So what does it mean if there is something shady going on? Firstly, the Manderlys and the Umbers are in on the navy plan from the beginning. They both propose similar ideas, for apparently unrelated reasons. The Umber reticence obscures this coordination. The effect for all who are privy to this information is that the Umbers were forced into this arrangement under protest.

But why do the Umbers propose it in the first place? If they are worried about their Manderly cooperation being discovered, why come around asking for shipsat all? Are they just incredibly lucky when Rodrik give them what they want without ever hearing from Robb? No, they must have brought up the issue to give Rodrik the opportunity to give them the order. In this case, Rodrik is in on it, perhaps only being recruited between the two meetings. Perhaps he's being given an opportunity to correct his mistake of not rubber stamping the Manderly plan in the first place. What will it say in the minutes sent to Robb?

Speculative Conclusions

The Manderlys and the Umbers want to build a navy. The Umbers don't want it known that they were in on this plan from the beginning, which gives them plausible deniability of whatever the navy is really for when it finally happens. Rodrik is also in on this plan, on some level, and the Umber longship request is contrived to confuse the matter of it's approval. It seems they do not want to risk an answer of no from Robb about the ships. Indeed, if they are aware that he has struck out from Riverrun, which they may well be, they may intend for this matter to get lost in the mists of memory before Robb ever hears about it. By the time he hears of it, the confusion will have held, the project will have started, and Bran, the 8 year old boy, may be confused as to exactly what was said to whom. Manderly may be prepared to claim farther down the road that he received the approval to begin immediately at his audience. Luwin and his minutes might have contradicted this, but who knows what plans they might have to deal with that?

Of course we might also ask if Luwin is in on it. It's him who oddly tells Bran, "One day you will be a good lord for Winterfell, I think." This prompts Bran to correct him about the likely line of succession of the Kingdom in the North, without even mentioning that in some sense there is no "Lord of Winterfell" anymore. Rodrik covers for him with something about the uncertainty of the future, but its interesting that Luwin and Rodrik here have broken from the party line of Robb's kingdom. It's a slip of the tongue, to be sure, but revealing what?

I think I know what they are up to, but that is for another post, and a larger theory. I am interested now in what anyone has to say about this event and this line of thinking. Doubtless it's been talked about about somewhere before, and I'd love to see that.

Thanks for reading.

Edited January 16 by Moon Man
typo

[Lissasalayaya]

Manderly's naval plan is to build sufficient ships to take Dragonstone and King's Landing. That would mean ships numbering in the 20s or more. Hother just wants enough ships to defend from wildling incursions. That would mean ships numbering in the single digits. The first request is for a large, far away offensive against a new big enemy and the second request is for a small local defense against an old small enemy. The second request seems like something that can be approved by the likes of the castellan Rodrik without the need for the king's approval. SImilarly, Lady Hornwood's request for defense against Bolton was refused without the need for the king's disapproval.

[Hippocras]

Interesting post, thank-you.

I agree with your instinct to not entirely buy the bannermen's motivations and official stories. I am not convinced, however, that the contradiction is quite what you think it is. Not to say there is nothing going on at all.

In most of these cases where they defer to Robb, they are talking about the fate of Lady Hornwood and the official inheritance policy. Getting bannermen to work together in defense of the coasts is not something that has as strong implications for future policies. It is simply a tactical decision for this point in time. So to me it is not all that striking that they can make the tactical defense decision without Robb, but not the long term inheritance policy decision.

As for war ships, as Manderly initially requested, or sending Tallhart spears South, these are decisions that require Robb's input because they are related to his war strategy in the South. But the Stark at Winterfell is the guardian of the North while Robb is gone, and does have full authority to defend the North, which is what the boats Umber requested were all about. They are not quite the same as the one Manderly wanted to build.

 

Now, back to Manderly's motivations:

If you look at the Stark family tree, something interesting emerges. Manderly ladies twice married in to House Stark. Myriame and Rodwell had no children. Farther back, Jeyne (Manderly) Stark had only daughters. Each of those daughters married Starks from a different branch of House Stark. Edric and Serena Stark then had several children, 2 of them male, but Cregard and Torrhen must have died before they could become Lord, and either not had any children or had daughters that married into other families and so are not noted on the Stark tree.

The point being that the primary Stark male branch descending from a Manderly alliance petered out but the female line became the source of Houses Cerwyn and Umber. A different branch then took over Winterfell, connected more by marriages to Houses Karstark and then Blackwood.

With the Karstarks alienated because of events in the war, and the Manderlys and Umbers feeling passed over, or too distantly connected to House Stark, they might be each or together considering a claim of their own based on descent from that earlier branch of House Stark.

 

[SaffronLady]

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The point being that the primary Stark male branch descending from a Manderly alliance petered out but the female line became the source of Houses Cerwyn and Umber. A different branch then took over Winterfell, connected more by marriages to Houses Karstark and then Blackwood.

With the Karstarks alienated because of events in the war, and the Manderlys and Umbers feeling passed over, or too distantly connected to House Stark, they might be each or together considering a claim of their own based on descent from that earlier branch of House Stark.

Right ... because diverting a kingdom's resources from a war effort to your own secret usurpation plan ... against a king who has won battle after battle ... who is the respected heir of a widely beloved and supported lord, who was the reason your kingdom is at war in the first place ... is totally sound, and bound to secure the support of other lords of the realm in question.

[Hippocras]

12 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Right ... because diverting a kingdom's resources from a war effort to your own secret usurpation plan ... against a king who has won battle after battle ... who is the respected heir of a widely beloved and supported lord, who was the reason your kingdom is at war in the first place ... is totally sound, and bound to secure the support of other lords of the realm in question.

I meant now. Not at the time of the request for war ships. Those were for Robb's war. But now they think the Stark kids are dead and do not feel inclined to support the Boltons. It is not IMO only about Red Wedding revenge. Though of course it is also about that. But each house is now assessing their own claims.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Pretty easy to understand from where Rodrik is sitting. The people he tells what to do are stewards or castellans. With the lords and ladies, he orders nothing and the closest exception is advice from Luwin (Hornwood and storage of grain). He'd not be telling Greatjon (or probably even smalljon) to work with Manderly on his boats.

 

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

Yeah, Umber doth protest too much, methinks. In light of the situation at and around Winterfell when we left it in Dance, the degree and means of Manderley and Umber collusion is worth a bit of investigation. Umber's overblown but aimless denouncement (what does being fat have to do with his shipbuilders anyway?) suggests that it predates Clash, but perhaps is fresh enough that the wrote 'he's too fat to sit a horse' knock should reasonably disguise the relationship.

Hey, is it the same Umber who later said he wants Mance Rayder's head for a wine cup or something to that effect? It would be interesting if he's showing a pattern.

Edited January 16 by Aejohn the Conqueroo

[Moon Man]

On 1/15/2024 at 11:13 PM, Lissasalayaya said:

Manderly's naval plan is to build sufficient ships to take Dragonstone and King's Landing. That would mean ships numbering in the 20s or more. Hother just wants enough ships to defend from wildling incursions. That would mean ships numbering in the single digits. The first request is for a large, far away offensive against a new big enemy and the second request is for a small local defense against an old small enemy. The second request seems like something that can be approved by the likes of the castellan Rodrik without the need for the king's approval. SImilarly, Lady Hornwood's request for defense against Bolton was refused without the need for the king's disapproval.

Perhaps. But Rodrik orders the Umbers to assist in the Manderly plan. Was the Manderly plan already approved by Robb by that time or did Rodrik decide to approve it between those meetings? More important for me is what we are to make of the recurent emphasis on the need to seek Robb's approval and what I see as this singular contradiction.

[Moon Man]

On 1/15/2024 at 11:26 PM, Hippocras said:

"But the Stark at Winterfell is the guardian of the North while Robb is gone, and does have full authority to defend the North, which is what the boats Umber requested were all about. They are not quite the same as the one Manderly wanted to build."

But Rodrik orders the Umbers to assist in the *Manderly* plan. Was the Manderly plan already approved by Robb by that time or did Rodrik decide to approve on his own it between those meetings? More important for me is what we are to make of the recurrent emphasis on the need to seek Robb's approval and what I see as this singular contradiction.

 

Thanks for reading.

[Moon Man]

On 1/15/2024 at 11:26 PM, Hippocras said:

Now, back to Manderly's motivations:

If you look at the Stark family tree, something interesting emerges. Manderly ladies twice married in to House Stark. Myriame and Rodwell had no children. Farther back, Jeyne (Manderly) Stark had only daughters. Each of those daughters married Starks from a different branch of House Stark. Edric and Serena Stark then had several children, 2 of them male, but Cregard and Torrhen must have died before they could become Lord, and either not had any children or had daughters that married into other families and so are not noted on the Stark tree.

The point being that the primary Stark male branch descending from a Manderly alliance petered out but the female line became the source of Houses Cerwyn and Umber. A different branch then took over Winterfell, connected more by marriages to Houses Karstark and then Blackwood.

With the Karstarks alienated because of events in the war, and the Manderlys and Umbers feeling passed over, or too distantly connected to House Stark, they might be each or together considering a claim of their own based on descent from that earlier branch of House Stark.

 

This is very intersting thank you. I was about to reiterate my disregard for the superstructural family/politic allegiances but actually claims to land and title are pretty materially relevant. Thanks.

[Moon Man]

20 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Right ... because diverting a kingdom's resources from a war effort to your own secret usurpation plan ... against a king who has won battle after battle ... who is the respected heir of a widely beloved and supported lord, who was the reason your kingdom is at war in the first place ... is totally sound, and bound to secure the support of other lords of the realm in question.

Or another king?

[Moon Man]

16 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Pretty easy to understand from where Rodrik is sitting. The people he tells what to do are stewards or castellans. With the lords and ladies, he orders nothing and the closest exception is advice from Luwin (Hornwood and storage of grain). He'd not be telling Greatjon (or probably even smalljon) to work with Manderly on his boats.

 

I think it's effectively, politically the same who ever is actually in the meeting. They are all representing their lords. I think this is about authority not manners. And for me it's more about the highlighting of a pattern and it's subversion. Thanks for reading

[Moon Man]

14 hours ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Yeah, Umber doth protest too much, methinks. In light of the situation at and around Winterfell when we left it in Dance, the degree and means of Manderley and Umber collusion is worth a bit of investigation. Umber's overblown but aimless denouncement (what does being fat have to do with his shipbuilders anyway?) suggests that it predates Clash, but perhaps is fresh enough that the wrote 'he's too fat to sit a horse' knock should reasonably disguise the relationship.

Exactly.

[Universal Sword Donor]

5 hours ago, Moon Man said:

I think it's effectively, politically the same who ever is actually in the meeting. They are all representing their lords. I think this is about authority not manners. And for me it's more about the highlighting of a pattern and it's subversion. Thanks for reading

The issue really being there's nothing to subvert. There need be no pretext in private meetings and the Manderlys and Umbers are trying to solve for different problems. Manderly wants to build an offensive force -- war galleys -- to end the war in Robb's favor.

“Lord Manderly also proposed to build Robb a warfleet. “We have had no strength at sea for hundreds of years, since Brandon the Burner put the torch to his father’s ships. Grant me the gold and within the year I will float you sufficient galleys to take Dragonstone and King’s Landing both.”

The Umbers want to build a patrolling force -- longships -- to prevent wildings on ersatz drift boat rafts from sailing around the wall.

“Hother wanted ships. “There’s wildlings stealing down from the north, more than I’ve ever seen before. They cross the Bay of Seals in little boats and wash up on our shores. The crows in Eastwatch are too few to stop them, and they go to ground quick as weasels. It’s longships we need, aye, and strong men to sail them.”

Umbers being loud and blustery for no real reason isn't exactly new as we see Greatjon do it to Robb on the march south. Robb set his wolf on him and set him straight. Rodrik, Robb's representative in the north, tells More to STFU and go build ships. Pretty straightforward in light of a vassal's obligations and feudal governance.

[Moon Man]

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The issue really being there's nothing to subvert. There need be no pretext in private meetings and the Manderlys and Umbers are trying to solve for different problems. Manderly wants to build an offensive force -- war galleys -- to end the war in Robb's favor.

“Lord Manderly also proposed to build Robb a warfleet. “We have had no strength at sea for hundreds of years, since Brandon the Burner put the torch to his father’s ships. Grant me the gold and within the year I will float you sufficient galleys to take Dragonstone and King’s Landing both.”

The Umbers want to build a patrolling force -- longships -- to prevent wildings on ersatz drift boat rafts from sailing around the wall.

“Hother wanted ships. “There’s wildlings stealing down from the north, more than I’ve ever seen before. They cross the Bay of Seals in little boats and wash up on our shores. The crows in Eastwatch are too few to stop them, and they go to ground quick as weasels. It’s longships we need, aye, and strong men to sail them.”

Umbers being loud and blustery for no real reason isn't exactly new as we see Greatjon do it to Robb on the march south. Robb set his wolf on him and set him straight. Rodrik, Robb's representative in the north, tells More to STFU and go build ships. Pretty straightforward in light of a vassal's obligations and feudal governance.

But Rodrik orders the Umbers to supply Manderly with lumber. To "work with" Manderly. Was the Manderly plan already approved by Robb by the time of the Umber meeting? Or did Rodrik decide to approve on his own it between those meetings? Yes, he could be argued to be dreaming up a whole new plan for only longships for defense of the East coast, but we know from Davos later that this is not how the Manderlys interpreted this. They built the big ships. More important for me is what we are to make of the recurrent emphasis on the need to seek Robb's approval and what I see as this singular contradiction. There are lots of logical ways out of this contradiction, such as Robb actually approving the plan by raven. I'm more interested in the pattern and what it might deliberately foreshadow.

Thanks for this

[Universal Sword Donor]

18 hours ago, Moon Man said:

But Rodrik orders the Umbers to supply Manderly with lumber. To "work with" Manderly. Was the Manderly plan already approved by Robb by the time of the Umber meeting? Or did Rodrik decide to approve on his own it between those meetings? Yes, he could be argued to be dreaming up a whole new plan for only longships for defense of the East coast, but we know from Davos later that this is not how the Manderlys interpreted this. They built the big ships. More important for me is what we are to make of the recurrent emphasis on the need to seek Robb's approval and what I see as this singular contradiction. There are lots of logical ways out of this contradiction, such as Robb actually approving the plan by raven. I'm more interested in the pattern and what it might deliberately foreshadow.

Thanks for this

He orders the the Umbers to build longships with Manderly's help. Whether or not that happens we do not know. Longships would really only be useful against wildling raiders and *maybe* smaller pirates. We know they do not stand up to larger galleys -- iron fleet excepted -- and cannot ferry a large group around thanks to Jason Mallister.

Her son turned to Lord Jason Mallister. "You have a fleet at Seagard?"

"A fleet, Your Grace? Half a dozen longships and two war galleys. Enough to defend my own shores against raiders, but I could not hope to meet the Iron Fleet in battle."

We do know that Manderly has been building war galleys for about a year, which is about the time that Rodrik was killed, while the Umbers split their forces between Bolton and Stannis. I doubt Robb ever even heard about the fleet proposal given how hard it was to reach him in the field, the events that followed the harvest feast, and his untimely death. More likely Manderly started preparing for the fleet when he heard about Blackwater, Bran and Rickon's deaths, et al, either to take advantage of the power vacuum -- to preserve stark power or increase his own -- or make sure Robb wouldn't be at a disadvantage against the royal fleet. 

It's still a gray area as what Manderly intends to do with Rickon and this new fleet, but it's pretty apparent he started working on his own without receiving assent from Rodrik or Robb.

PDF Timeline for reference

https://mega.nz/file/tpgxUATJ#F6Q13AE1eAyaM5XMNkLSvzvkN20N77DNzdukLSm9qYw

Edited January 18 by Universal Sword Donor

[Hippocras]

I have a nagging feeling Manderly is connected in some way to Tyrosh. His daughter's hair being a strange detail if it was not meant to hint at something.

Of course Tyrosh has factions, so it might not be the same faction that Dorne (via the Archon's daughter at the water gardens) is linked to. But it might be.

Edited January 18 by Hippocras

[Moon Man]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He orders the the Umbers to build longships with Manderly's help. Whether or not that happens we do not know. Longships would really only be useful against wildling raiders and *maybe* smaller pirates. We know they do not stand up to larger galleys -- iron fleet excepted -- and cannot ferry a large group around thanks to Jason Mallister.

Thanks for all this. I do think the big ships vs longship distinction is a possible, logical explanation for why Rodrik deferes one plan but orders another. But for me it's more about the structural element. The order sticks out in a chapter repeatedly about deferring to Robb. Manderly's request is deferred to the king, then a relatively similar plan is approved, and the Manderlys are implicitly ordered to carry it out, and the Umbers ordered to assist. The shades of difference between the two (or three: Manderly, Umber, and Rodrik) plans offers a reason for us to stop looking into it. But the structural foreshadowing of something still calls out to me.

     

[Universal Sword Donor]

29 minutes ago, Moon Man said:

Thanks for all this. I do think the big ships vs longship distinction is a possible, logical explanation for why Rodrik deferes one plan but orders another. But for me it's more about the structural element. The order sticks out in a chapter repeatedly about deferring to Robb. Manderly's request is deferred to the king, then a relatively similar plan is approved, and the Manderlys are implicitly ordered to carry it out, and the Umbers ordered to assist. The shades of difference between the two (or three: Manderly, Umber, and Rodrik) plans offers a reason for us to stop looking into it. But the structural foreshadowing of something still calls out to me.

We have no idea if the Umbers or Rodrik were complicit at all. Rodrik dies before we hear of anything else and there is absolutely no mention of Umber help / lumber or even Umber refugees anywhere around WH or Manderly lands, which are already flush with more than enough timber, sailors, and shipwrights to build the galleys we "see" and are told about. Ockham's razor should be telling us Manderly built the fleet of his own volition -- possibly with the tax revenues the customs agents were withholding from King Robb -- in response to the catastrophe at WF and Blackwater.

[Moon Man]

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

We have no idea if the Umbers or Rodrik were complicit at all. Rodrik dies before we hear of anything else and there is absolutely no mention of Umber help / lumber or even Umber refugees anywhere around WH or Manderly lands, which are already flush with more than enough timber, sailors, and shipwrights to build the galleys we "see" and are told about. Ockham's razor should be telling us Manderly built the fleet of his own volition -- possibly with the tax revenues the customs agents were withholding from King Robb -- in response to the catastrophe at WF and Blackwater.

As I say, there are many logical reasons to dismiss this as nothing. My question is why the author chose to structure the chapter in this way. For related reasons, I don't see Ockham's razor as a useful tool for investigating literature. Certainly not mystery stories primarily concerned with perspective, intrigue, and deception. This isn't history or science.

That said, I agree it's fairly clear that Manderly built his fleet of his own volition. But did he get money from Winterfell first? Did Robb ever know? These are questions I think we are meant to be able ask after a close reading.

Thanks for the details.