Jon is the child of Eddard Stark and Ashara Dayne

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

I would alter that timeline slightly. I believe that the love afair between Ned and Ashara pre-dates his marriage to Cat and I see it as his collecting Jon (and Wylla) when he dropped of the sword. Yes, Ashara was alive at that time, and Ned was married to Cat by then... I think it just fits with the timeline better for it to go that way, but I could be wrong, because we don't know for certain that Ned traveled back to Winterfell with Jon. So it is possible that Wylla delivered him after. I just would find it odd that their romance would start AFTER he kills her brother.

I didn't say their romance started after he killed Arthur.

All I said was that Ned returning Arthur's sword to Ashara, then LEAVING to be with Cat (instead of staying with and comforting Ashara in her time of need) is what caused Ashara to kill herself. A preexisting romance is implied for such a thing to occur. It's pretty clear to me that Ned wasn't at Starfall for 9 months. Jon would already have been born by this point.

I think that Wylla would bring Jon to Ned only after he left for the following reasons:

1) I don't see any reason for Ned to take Jon away from Ashara

2) Ashara only killed herself after Ned left Starfall

So, Wylla must have followed shortly after Ned with Jon.

[Aerys]

Either that or Ned took Jon away from a dying Lyanna, who wanted Ned to promise her that he would look after her son, despite Jon being the son of the man who Robert was sworn to fight against...

The things we do for love, people. It is/going to be a recurring theme.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Either that or Ned took Jon away from a dying Lyanna, who wanted Ned to promise her that he would look after her son, despite Jon being the son of the man who Robert was sworn to fight against...

The things we do for love, people. It is/going to be a recurring theme.

I think we are all well aware of the other theory.

If you would like to discuss why you think R+L=J is more likely than N+A=J, I'd love to debate. Or, if you'd like to talk about why N+A=J is unsatisfying to you and/or you feel doesn't fit with canon facts, I would love to hear about it and discuss.

[SFDanny]

The problem with this idea isn't that it isn't possible - it is - but rather that it fails to explain so much. We know of a narrow window at the early stages of the war that it is possible to see a secret meeting taking place between Ashara and Ned, so they could have conceived Jon at that time. We have no evidence such a meeting did take place, but it could have if Ashara is traveling secretly in the midst of war in the war torn Riverlands or the Vale. Ned could have gone to Starfall only to return Ser Arthur's sword, so he could have taken Jon away at that time. But this does not deal with the many, many hints that we have that Lyanna had a baby with Rhaegar. If so what happened with the child. Why all the references to "bloody bed," blue roses, Rhaegar's sterling character, the romance between Rhaegar and Lyanna, Ned's dreams, Jon's dreams, Bran's dreams, Daenerys vision, Ned's tortured thoughts of the price he has paid for his lies, etc. etc. None of it is explained by this interpretation; all of it is by Jon being the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna. While this simple explanation of Jon's birth may work from a real life "Occam's razor" type perspective, the idea that Martin has dropped all of these clues for what turns out to be totally unimportant to the story just doesn't fly. What it does work as is a cover story used by Ned to hide Jon's true parentage.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

The problem with this idea isn't that it isn't possible - it is - but rather that it fails to explain so much.

And R+L=J really fails to explain satisfactorily why Ashara killed herself. N+A=J makes a very compelling argument for her suicide. At the very least N+A must be true for her suicide to be at all satisfactory for me.

Also, I think the Wylla - Jon connection is much more easily explained by N+A=J. As Blauer Dragon has commented, t's something that you really have to kind of talk around if you think R+L=J. Was Wylla already at the ToJ when Ned arrived? If so, why? She's Ashara's handmaiden, that's an absolute fact. Her being at the ToJ is puzzling to say the least. If not, then I guess Ned brought Jon to Starfall, and for some reason hired Wylla to be Jon's wetnurse? Anyone could have been "Jon's fake mom" to pull suspicion away from R+L - why Ashara Dayne's handmaiden of all people, unless Ashara is actually Jon's mother and sent Wylla with Jon to Ned?

Now, I'm sure you are going to have explanations for both my points, but that kind of proves the point - both theories have holes. Defenders of both theories can try to patch up those holes with various explanations (as I'm about to do below).

We know of a narrow window at the early stages of the war that it is possible to see a secret meeting taking place between Ashara and Ned, so they could have conceived Jon at that time. We have no evidence such a meeting did take place, but it could have if Ashara is traveling secretly in the midst of war in the war torn Riverlands or the Vale. Ned could have gone to Starfall only to return Ser Arthur's sword, so he could have taken Jon away at that time.

The evidence for a Ned + Ashara meeting is circumstantial, but it is there I think. Ashara's suicide is the main point. If they'd only met once at Harrenhal, I honestly don't think that would be enough to cause Ashara to kill herself. I think they must have had a relationship and met many times.

Also, Ned said, very sorrowfully, "I shamed myself. I shamed Catelyn" in reference to Jon. I don't think Ned could have lied convincingly there (about the Cat thing) with that kind of emotional statement. This is circumstantial evidence that Ned met up with Ashara at least once after he was betrothed to Catelyn.

On that note, They may have met multiple times, and depending on the strictness of your timeline (particularly re: Jon vs Dany's age), there are multiple opportunities for a N+A=J conception.

But this does not deal with the many, many hints that we have that Lyanna had a baby with Rhaegar. If so what happened with the child. Why all the references to "bloody bed,"

blue roses,

There are two lines in reference to Lyanna and blue roses, and there is one possible reference to Jon and a blue rose (the blue rose could actually refer to anyone at the wall - blue roses have inherent symbolic meaning, they aren't just Lyanna's favorite flower). The amount of stock people put into this one detail simply baffles me.

Rhaegar's sterling character, the romance between Rhaegar and Lyanna,

Why all the evidence of romance between Ned and Ashara? I think both couples are real and either could possibly have had a child as you say. I find R+L a very compelling romance.

Ned's dreams, Jon's dreams, Bran's dreams,

I'm not sure I know the exact dreams you're referring to. I think Ned's dreams were all promise me Ned / ToJ stuff. And those were really vague.

Jon's dream - maybe you mean the one where he doesn't fit in at the Stark crypts? Yes. Because he's a Snow not a Stark.

Which of Bran's dreams? That Ghost is "the other brother that stood aside?" Jon being Ned's bastard fits perfectly, again.

Daenerys vision,

Look! You used blue roses twice! Dany has no other vision in regard to Jon. Or no vision in regard to Jon depending how you see it.

Ned's tortured thoughts of the price he has paid for his lies, etc. etc. None of it is explained by this interpretation;

Apparently the life of your true love isn't a price to you?! Ned's tortured thoughts are BETTER explained by Ashara's death than Lyanna's. Though them both dying as a result of Ned's actions is even better.

Ned's refusal to tell anyone Ashara's Jon's mother is also easily explained by Ned's being so damned honor-bound. He doesn't want to "sully" his dead lover's name by the revelation she mothered a bastard (even if she wouldn't have seen it as such).

all of it is by Jon being the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna. While this simple explanation of Jon's birth may work from a real life "Occam's razor" type perspective, the idea that Martin has dropped all of these clues for what turns out to be totally unimportant to the story just doesn't fly.

I think the R+L arc is extremely important to the story regardless of whether Jon is their kid. Jon being Ashara's kid (also hinted at) could also prove to be very important to the story. Jon can be "important" without being some long-lost heir to the throne. He's proving himself important by his actions.

What it does work as is a cover story used by Ned to hide Jon's true parentage.

Wylla as mom is the cover story. I don't know why we need 3 layers of obfuscation.

[Hedge Knight]

My Dog is named D,

I enjoyed your thinking and comments. While now I am in the R+L=J, I used to think N+A=J. So I have looked at both sides.

One thing that bears looking at is Ashara's apparent suicide. No one saw her kill herself and her body was never found. That to me raises a red flag. GRRM's style is to purposely leave things open-ended. So I do have a big question if Ashara is really dead. Too many other characters in these books have been left like this and re-appear alive.

If Ashara is actually alive, I dont think that disproves N+A=J. It's just another twist in this mysterious goings on in Westeros. I'd love to open a DNA Lab in Westeros. That would answer a lot of questions.

Re: Willa

She is a wetnurse to Jon and then to Edrik Dayne who is about 5 years younger than Jon. I find that more than a coincidence. I hope we find out more about Willa. She has to be having children of her own? etc.

Also Willa being Ashara's handmaid and traveling to Winterfell to nurse Jon makes it all too obvious that there could be a tie with Ashara as Jon's mother. If Ned wanted to keep the identy of Jon's mother private as he has done, taking Ashara's handmaid throws a strong suspicion to everyone in Westeros that Ashara is Jon's mother. I think it fits better as a coverup to throw suspicion away from R+L=J and therby protect Jon.

[SD Stark]

Re: Willa

If Ned wanted to keep the identy of Jon's mother private as he has done, taking Ashara's handmaid throws a strong suspicion to everyone in Westeros that Ashara is Jon's mother. I think it fits better as a coverup to throw suspicion away from R+L=J and therby protect Jon.

The impression I get is not that Ned wanted to keep Jon's mother's identity secret, but rather he refused to speak about her for his own personal reasons. I think if it was an actual coverup, Ned would be more forthcoming about Jon's mother, rather than evasive. I think the simple truth is Jon's mother is a painful subject and that's why he never speaks of her; and that is a disservice to Jon because he deserves to know about his mother.

[SFDanny]

And R+L=J really fails to explain satisfactorily why Ashara killed herself. N+A=J makes a very compelling argument for her suicide. At the very least N+A must be true for her suicide to be at all satisfactory for me.

That's because there is no need to explain it involving Rhaegar's relationship to Lyanna . Yes, we have plenty of evidence from Meera, Edric, Catelyn and others that there was a relationship between Ashara and Ned at the Harrenhal tourney. Jon cannot be a child conceived at that time because he is too young, but if we accept something we have no evidence of, that Ned and Ashara met within the first three months of the war (likely right after he is married and conceives a child with Catelyn,) then this is barely possible.

Ashara's suicide can be explained by many other factors, including what we are told in the books, without resort to Jon being her child. If Ned killing her brother isn't enough of a reason, then let's speculate about what she would feel like if she is the source of Ned's information about the location of the Tower of Joy. Enough to tip her over the edge? There are a number of reasons for Ashara's suicide that make sense without it having to do with Jon.

Also, I think the Wylla - Jon connection is much more easily explained by N+A=J. As Blauer Dragon has commented, t's something that you really have to kind of talk around if you think R+L=J. Was Wylla already at the ToJ when Ned arrived? If so, why? She's Ashara's handmaiden, that's an absolute fact. Her being at the ToJ is puzzling to say the least. If not, then I guess Ned brought Jon to Starfall, and for some reason hired Wylla to be Jon's wetnurse? Anyone could have been "Jon's fake mom" to pull suspicion away from R+L - why Ashara Dayne's handmaiden of all people, unless Ashara is actually Jon's mother and sent Wylla with Jon to Ned?

Actually, Wylla is never referred to as "Ashara's handmaiden," only as a wet nurse. You maybe confusing Ashara, who was a handmaid to Aerys' queen, with Wylla. We don't even know where Wylla is from originally, only that she is at Starfall after Ned's arrival long enough to be Edric Dayne's wet nurse as well. Which by the way, means she probably is not the wet nurse who shows up in Winterfell with Jon. None of the Starks, other than Ned, seem to know anything about Wylla.

We also know from the use of the word "they" that more than one person was at the Tower of Joy to find Ned as he mourned over his sister's body. Who would we expect to be at an aristocrat's birth? How about a maester and a wet nurse? This pregnancy didn't just surprise Lyanna, so she, and Rhaegar, had a chance to prepare for the birth. The presence of Wylla, or another wet nurse, is not only easily explained, it is to be expected. On top of that, if Ned transports a new born child from the mountains of Dorne to the harbor of Starfall he needs someone to feed the child. Given that newborn's need to eat every few hours that makes a trip across Dorne highly unlikely without a wet nurse. Which means Wylla is likely a loyal servant of Rhaegar and Lyanna at the Tower of Joy who travels with Ned to Starfall in order to feed Jon and then stays at Starfall.

Now, I'm sure you are going to have explanations for both my points, but that kind of proves the point - both theories have holes. Defenders of both theories can try to patch up those holes with various explanations (as I'm about to do below).

The evidence for a Ned + Ashara meeting is circumstantial, but it is there I think. Ashara's suicide is the main point. If they'd only met once at Harrenhal, I honestly don't think that would be enough to cause Ashara to kill herself. I think they must have had a relationship and met many times.

Also, Ned said, very sorrowfully, "I shamed myself. I shamed Catelyn" in reference to Jon. I don't think Ned could have lied convincingly there (about the Cat thing) with that kind of emotional statement. This is circumstantial evidence that Ned met up with Ashara at least once after he was betrothed to Catelyn.

On that note, They may have met multiple times, and depending on the strictness of your timeline (particularly re: Jon vs Dany's age), there are multiple opportunities for a N+A=J conception.

So far, I don't see any need for "patching" of the R+L=J thesis. I don't dispute that Ned and Ashara had a romantic relationship, but that doesn't mean they have multiple possibilities for conceiving Jon. The war is about a year long and Jon is about 9 months older than Daenerys. That puts this liaison between Ned and Ashara in the midst of the war. You have to be naive to think it is easy for the two to "hook up" under the circumstances. After all, during this period Aerys is looking for Ned and Robert's heads and two of them are actively trying to build a rebellion. Romance isn't likely to be at the top of Ned's "to do" list. It's possible, but you really have to squint really hard to see this as likely.

There are two lines in reference to Lyanna and blue roses, and there is one possible reference to Jon and a blue rose (the blue rose could actually refer to anyone at the wall - blue roses have inherent symbolic meaning, they aren't just Lyanna's favorite flower). The amount of stock people put into this one detail simply baffles me.

Why all the evidence of romance between Ned and Ashara? I think both couples are real and either could possibly have had a child as you say. I find R+L a very compelling romance.

Of the top of my head I count 4 references to blue roses. At the tourney at Harrenhal, Daenerys vision, Ned's recollection of her death, and the story Bael the Bard. All of which seem to point to Lyanna. All of which seem to verify a romance between Rhaegar and Lyanna.

I'm not sure I know the exact dreams you're referring to. I think Ned's dreams were all promise me Ned / ToJ stuff. And those were really vague.

Jon's dream - maybe you mean the one where he doesn't fit in at the Stark crypts? Yes. Because he's a Snow not a Stark.

Which of Bran's dreams? That Ghost is "the other brother that stood aside?" Jon being Ned's bastard fits perfectly, again.

The "promise me, Ned" references throughout AGOT is pretty strong evidence that Ned is hiding some secret for Lyanna. Jon dreams he must go into the tombs, but he is afraid that he doesn't belong. The important part is that he feels he must go there. This is backed up by Bran's dream in which he dreams his father is in the tombs and is trying to tell him something about Jon. If Jon is truly a Snow, this doesn't make sense. If he is secretly a Stark it does.

Look! You used blue roses twice! Dany has no other vision in regard to Jon. Or no vision in regard to Jon depending how you see it.

She has a vision of not only a blue rose on the wall, but also of Rheagar dying and crying out "some woman's name." Not his wife, Elia's name, but some woman's.

Apparently the life of your true love isn't a price to you?! Ned's tortured thoughts are BETTER explained by Ashara's death than Lyanna's. Though them both dying as a result of Ned's actions is even better.

We know Ned has promised his sister something on her death bed and he is haunted by this promise throughout the first book. It is clearly this promise he says he pays a price to keep. There is no doubt Ned pays a price for marrying Catelyn in his losing Ashara. That is a price he openly pays, not something he has to keep secret. There is no shame, as we are told over and over again, in Ned's love for Ashara. It all happened before his wedding to Catelyn Tully, so no harm no foul. The only shame he could have is if he cheated on Catelyn after the wedding and even that need not be such a big deal, if we are to trust Catelyn's own words on the subject. It is only by bringing Jon home that Ned pays a price with his wife. Why would he do so when the Lady Ashara can raise him in a much more accepting culture for bastards and with as much advantage as Ned can give him.

Ned's refusal to tell anyone Ashara's Jon's mother is also easily explained by Ned's being so damned honor-bound. He doesn't want to "sully" his dead lover's name by the revelation she mothered a bastard (even if she wouldn't have seen it as such).

I think the R+L arc is extremely important to the story regardless of whether Jon is their kid. Jon being Ashara's kid (also hinted at) could also prove to be very important to the story. Jon can be "important" without being some long-lost heir to the throne. He's proving himself important by his actions.

Wylla as mom is the cover story. I don't know why we need 3 layers of obfuscation.

What we "need" and what we get are two different things.

What you ask us to believe is that Ned chooses to take his son home and pays a price with his wife over a relationship she would accept as long as Jon is not in Winterfell. If Ashara is so grief stricken by this decision that she commits suicide, then it is likely he does so over Ashara's objections as well. How Ned and Howland Reed could do this in Lady Dayne's own castle is a mystery. All of it seems very strange to me.

As I said, N+A=J is possible, but only barely and you have to accept some very unlikely things. So far, I see no such problem with Rhaegar and Lyanna being the parents of Jon Snow. All the facts as we know them seem to fit.

[Euron]

Honestly folks, look at it from Neds point of view, at the time.

He was NOT the heir to Winterfell, his brother was.

But then his father was killed by the king, and his brother was as well, trying to save his father. But this King was supposed to be the father-in-law to his sister....

So Ned gets REAL PO'ed, and joins a rebellion.

Now before that, Ned was free to pursue whatever love he wanted. He was not the Heir, not the one whose marraige counted the most.

Then in the middle of the rebellion, he is forced to marry his brothers fiance. Wow, is this confusing to him? Here he thought he could either marry for love, or at least for lust, then bingo, this other woman is forced upon him as a part of a political alliance.

Assuming they had a wedding and a bedding, he spent only a night or 2 with the new woman, then off to the war. (Cat's remeniscing validates this)

And in that war, he sees his new friend kill his almost brother in law, then he himself has to kill someone who he thought would be his brother in law. When he returns to tell his secret lover, he finds she has had a child by him.

If he hadn't been forced to marry Cat, he could marry Ashara, and the child would be legitimate.

But he can't and won't because of his honor (and also the alliance, most likely). But that same honor makes him keep the child.

Remember he and Cat don't even know each other at this point. He has no one to ask for advise, his brother and father are gone, his friend is becoming king (and he is reckless about his own bastards), and his sister also dies in the final battle.

So the tally is a brother, a father, a sister, and 2 possible brother in laws all gone in a matter of weeks.

As I said earlier, when he decided to keep J, he had no idea Cat was pregnant. When he found out, he had no idea he would have a boy. Until Barn come along many years later, he would only have 1 heir w/o J. He just became the Lord of Winterfell, as 2nd in line himself. He knows the value of 2 heirs.

He also knws that Starks populate the wall quite frequently, with their bastards or younger sons. When Bran is born, he probably changes his plans for J, and gets him ready for the wall. That is why he takes arms training, learning to reading, numbers, geography, etc. Add in some exposure to Theon. All things that you might not expect for bastards, but then, Ned is expecting he will be valuable to the Wall, since many of the brothers are illiterate, and have little or no weapons training before getting to the wall.

When Robert comes, Ned doesn't allow J any honor. But by then Benjen has told him of the dire need for people on the wall. Ned wants J to know that as a bastard, he will not get any rel respect now that he is grown, and the wall is the place where he can rise all the way to Commander, if he tries hard enough.

Again, I doubt if J=R&L, then he wouldn't send him to the wall, and wouldnt keep him at Winterfell. He would be raised somewhere else, then maybe squired at Winterfell, and sworn as a knight when he got old enough.

[pwdiii]

And R+L=J really fails to explain satisfactorily why Ashara killed herself. N+A=J makes a very compelling argument for her suicide. At the very least N+A must be true for her suicide to be at all satisfactory for me.

I fail to understand why Asharas taking of her own life is better explained by her giving birth to Jon. Sure she would have had a bastard but I'm sure she would have loved him all the same. Sorry but N+A=J makes NO arguement for her suicide what so ever. Unless your counting post partem depression in the mix anyway. Could it be that Ned lied even to her about who Jon was? I mean bad enough that she lost Ned to Cat but to think he may have cheated on Cat with another woman besides herself. Now that could be rather upsetting. I can't say that N+A=J is untrue no more then I can say that R+L=J is. I can say however that there is more evidence to support the latter. Hopefully we will find out soon.

[Spring Bass]

And R+L=J really fails to explain satisfactorily why Ashara killed herself. N+A=J makes a very compelling argument for her suicide. At the very least N+A must be true for her suicide to be at all satisfactory for me.

You mean, of course, other than her former(?) romantic interest bringing her the dead body of her brother, whom he killed in combat. Plus the death and destruction of the Royal family which she served. You may disagree, but that seems like plenty reasons for someone to conceivably kill onesself; both are certainly quite tragic. If you want to propose that there must be another reason, then you have to provide some real evidence, and it's lacking.

Also, I think the Wylla - Jon connection is much more easily explained by N+A=J. As Blauer Dragon has commented, t's something that you really have to kind of talk around if you think R+L=J. Was Wylla already at the ToJ when Ned arrived? If so, why? She's Ashara's handmaiden, that's an absolute fact. Her being at the ToJ is puzzling to say the least. If not, then I guess Ned brought Jon to Starfall, and for some reason hired Wylla to be Jon's wetnurse? Anyone could have been "Jon's fake mom" to pull suspicion away from R+L - why Ashara Dayne's handmaiden of all people, unless Ashara is actually Jon's mother and sent Wylla with Jon to Ned?

Where does it say Wylla is Ashara's handmaiden? The only reference to her that I remember, other than what Ned said, is when Edric Dayne refers to her as his and Jon's milknurse, and a servant to the Dayne family for a long time. That seems like plenty reason for Ned to use her as a wetnurse, if he's at Starfall.

As for why Ashara's handmaiden, the proper question is 'why not'? If she nursed him, it's not exactly hard for the rumor mill to generate the possibility that Jon might actually be her son, especially since he popped out of nowhere, and it's not uncommon for Lords to have bastards with commonborn women (although, from Catelyn's point of view, it seems more like the gossip outside of Starfall was that Jon was Ashara Dayne's son).

Now, I'm sure you are going to have explanations for both my points, but that kind of proves the point - both theories have holes. Defenders of both theories can try to patch up those holes with various explanations (as I'm about to do below).

The evidence for a Ned + Ashara meeting is circumstantial, but it is there I think. Ashara's suicide is the main point. If they'd only met once at Harrenhal, I honestly don't think that would be enough to cause Ashara to kill herself. I think they must have had a relationship and met many times.

It's far more circumstantial than the evidence for Rhaegar plus Lyanna. What we have to go on it are the 'rumors' Cat hears about Ashara Dayne, the gossip Cersei heard, and the 'fact' that there was almost certainly romantic tension between Ned and Ashara. It also fails to account for a number of things associated with Jon, most notably the whole 'living a lie for years' shame complex that Ned seems to have about the whole affair, and his utter unwillingness to go beyond vagueries in talking about Jon's origins. Why the big secret?

Also, Ned said, very sorrowfully, "I shamed myself. I shamed Catelyn" in reference to Jon. I don't think Ned could have lied convincingly there (about the Cat thing) with that kind of emotional statement. This is circumstantial evidence that Ned met up with Ashara at least once after he was betrothed to Catelyn.

He was also clearly trying to turn Robert away from that line of inquiry. I wouldn't take what he says to Robert as the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

On that note, They may have met multiple times, and depending on the strictness of your timeline (particularly re: Jon vs Dany's age), there are multiple opportunities for a N+A=J conception.

It's about "nine months", if I remember right.

There are two lines in reference to Lyanna and blue roses, and there is one possible reference to Jon and a blue rose (the blue rose could actually refer to anyone at the wall - blue roses have inherent symbolic meaning, they aren't just Lyanna's favorite flower). The amount of stock people put into this one detail simply baffles me.

Why? Martin, at least in this series, has a history of using subtle symbolic 'hints' as foreshadowing - anyone remember the Ghost of High Heart's statements about the Red Wedding, or the "Wolf with a fish in its mouth"?

This has been canvassed all much better in the "Prove/Disprove R + L = J" thread that Artanaro created a long while ago.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Wylla -

yes you are right, I misspoke - Wylla is the Dayne's servant, not specifically Ashara's handmaiden. But as Guardsman Bass said, we know Wylla has been a servant at Starfall for many years. Again I think it's too much to say it's coincidence. Given she's a Dayne servant, Wylla being at ToJ is baffling to say the least.

----------

Ashara's Suicide, etc -

I bring this up as evidence for Ashara and Ned really being LOVERS - not just romantic tension at Harrenhal or whatever. I don't find the idea that she killed herself just because Arthur died good enough. She and Ned must have been very serious such that her being Jon's mother with Ned is extremely plausible, not just possible.

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Ned talking about Jon -

One of Ned's lines is often used as direct/circumstantial evidence that Jon's mother is Lyanna - "He is my blood and that is all you need to know"

I bring up the line "I shamed myself. I shamed Catelyn" as an example line that is evidence for Ned and Ashara actually cheating on Catelyn (and therefore circumstantial evidence for Jon being their son), not just romantic tension.

You have explained that away by saying Ned was trying to throw Robert off of the real truth. But honestly, Ned's pretty awful at deceiving people. He's much more likely to say nothing than to make up a lie about something like that. "Jon is my blood" is true in either case.

---------

Dany being 9 mo younger than Jon -

This has always baffled me in terms of the amount of weight fans give this number. Here is the email from GRRM. Please note the trouble he takes to be sure we all know that his timelines aren't set in stone and often confuse him a great deal in fact.

"..All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born 'more

than 1 year' before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or

thereabouts. "

"I do intend to publish a timeline as an appendix in one or other of the

later volumes, but even when I do, I am not certain I'm going to start

detailing things down to months and days. With such a huge cast of

characters, just keeping track of the =years= drives me half mad

sometimes."

In other words Jon may be a bit older than Dany but GRRM isnt' even sure (or isn't willing to confirm this). So... honestly I think the window of Jon's conception is a lot wider than people seem to be assuming.

----------

- Ned + Ashara not having much time to meet up

There are many, several month long, windows of time as of yet unaccounted for in the timeline. See The Citadel

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/1992/

for more details but here are some possibilities:

1) There are many months after the Harrenhal tournament and before Brandon and Rickard's deaths where Ned is unaccounted for (most likely he's at The Vale). Ashara could have come to him then. This time would fit with Dany being "9 mo or thereabouts" (GRRM's words not mine) younger because according to The Citadel estimates, the fall of Dragonstone may have occurred around 10 months after Jon Arryn first raises his banners.

2) After that, Ned returns to Winterfell to rally troops and doens't meet up with Robert again until several months later (when the Stark+Tully alliance break the siege at Stony Sept). Ashara could be waiting for him at Winterfell, or even meet him in disguise en-route. During this time, Ned likely becomes betrothed to Catelyn, so him feeling he has "betrayed" her with Ashara would now fit.

3) After the Ned+Cat wedding, there is a ~7 mo gap that's completely undocumented. Presumably Eddard is fighting all over the place. If you believe Jon and Dany could be about the same age, this would be another time. If you're stuck on ~9 mo then choose 1 or 2.

As for Ashara's location, it is known at only two times:

1) She's at Harrenhal as Elia's handmaiden

2) She's already at Starfall when Eddard arrives with Dawn, 1.5-2+ years later (the time between Harrenhal and the start of the war is as of yet unknown)

And as GRRM has said,

" Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as

some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne

too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of

fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady

companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married

Rhaegar."

So she could have been at KL at the start and took off for the Vale in case 1), or she could have gone to Winterfell in case 2). It's far but not that far. Perhaps when she was supposed to leave KL and return to Starfall at the start of the war, she instead decided to return to Ned.

Anyway, you are absolutely wrong in saying that it would be at all difficult for Ashara and Ned to meet up during the war. There are very long windows of possibility and I would go so far as to say that if they were IN LOVE it would be LIKELY they would meet up. And all of the other points I have made have been enforcing the idea that N+A was a serious relationship - the kind where you would do all you could to meet up, especially in war time when the other is in danger.

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Euron's point -

If Jon is Lyanna's and Rhaegar's trueborn son, Ned would not have allowed him to go to the wall.

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If Jon is truly a Snow, this doesn't make sense. If he is secretly a Stark it does"

If R+L=J, Jon is no more a Stark than if N+A=J. Even less I think since the father's the one that matters. He is either a Targaryen, or a bastard for that part of the world - Rivers? I maintain that all of those dreams make as much sense if Jon is a Snow.

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Dany's dream, other hints about R+L -

No one is debating R+L. Just as you're supposedly not debating N+A (though the fact that you're so stubbornly refusing to believe that N+A would want to meet up one last time before Ned possibly dies in war shows you don't seem to be convinced). Which union resulted in Jon is what's in debate.

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It also fails to account for a number of things associated with Jon, most notably the whole 'living a lie for years' shame complex that Ned seems to have about the whole affair, and his utter unwillingness to go beyond vagueries in talking about Jon's origins. Why the big secret?

Please see Euron's post. This has already been answered repeatedly.

Ned's "complex" is that he believes himself responsible for Ashara's death. If he had only been honorable enough to control himself and end their relationship earlier then she wouldn't have died.

Ned doesn't want to go beyond vagueries in order to protect the honor or Ashara's memory (something obivously very precious to him).

[A wilding]

Euron & MDIND:

Reading through the recent posts in this thread, you do seem generally to be arguing from the point of view of assuming that N+A=J is a fact and looking for evidence to support it, This is perhaps not the most rigorous approach.

You might argue that the various possible reasons we already know about for Ashara killing herself are not enough, but it does not prove N+A=J.

Similarly "I shamed myself. I shamed Catelyn" dos not prove anything either. As you point out Ned does not like to lie, he tends to mislead when cornered. (I am tempted to bring up the "Jon is my blood" line here, but I suppose you would not consider it a fair example. ) Whatever the truth about Jon, Ned did shame Catelyn, and himself, by forcing her to endure his "bastard" at Winterfell. (Incidentally, N+A=J has to explain why he did this, instead of leaving Jon in Dorne, with its kinder attitude to bastards - the idea of him considering Jon as a backup heir does not fly.)

You might find holes in the timeline in which Ned and Ashara might have met up, but there is no hint anywhere in the books that they ever did. They were on opposite sides of the war that was going on, and we also have no hint that Ashara might have been wild enough to do such a foolhardy thing.

[Aerys]

I think we are all well aware of the other theory.

If you would like to discuss why you think R+L=J is more likely than N+A=J, I'd love to debate. Or, if you'd like to talk about why N+A=J is unsatisfying to you and/or you feel doesn't fit with canon facts, I would love to hear about it and discuss.

Ok here are my thoughts, in no paticular order.

The consistent references to the blue rose, all relating to the female side of the stark. Firstly, we have Bael the Bard's story about leaving a blue rose after stealling Lord of Winterfell's daughter. Then you have a direct reference to R giving L the ring of blue roses, Lyanna's favourite, and pronouncing her the queen of beauty.Then we have L dying in a room full of roses, telling Ned to promise her something. And finally, Dany has a vision of a blue rose growing out of a Wall. Now then, who is on the Wall?

Ok, take Jon. We can all agree that he is part Stark. Do you find it just a complete coincidence that we have all these refernces to blue roses for women Starks and then you have Jon Snow the bastard on the Wall? The rose is growing out of the Wall. Much like Jon growing while on the Wall, in maturity and wisdom and position?I keep hearing the reason that Blue roses symbolises growth or whatever and this might not refer to Jon. Who else could it be perhaps? It can't be Grenn or Pyp, have they really grown into different people. Not as much as Jon has. Sam hasnt got much better either. The roses are not symbolising that ned is Jon's father, but Lyanna is his mother.

Originally, blue roses were made by dyeing white roses, as there are no such natural things as blue roses until they genetically engineered a blue rose. There is such a thing as a burgundy rose, which can symbolise beauty. Blue roses symbolise Mystery. Jon has a mysterious parentage. Blue roses are derived from the white rose, which symbolises such things as innocence and secrecy.

Ned remebers Lyanna saying promise me Ned etc etc and the thinks of Jon.Well? A dying women in a pool of blood asking a huge favour and then the next thought is that is of a motherless bastard. What thought pops into your head when you first read this. Remember, George wrote AGOT when he thought that it would be a trilogy. He probably thoght Jon's parentage would be revealed very soon. For the first book, this is pretty worthwhile evidence. What would Lyanna make Ned promise anyway? To tape her favourite soap opera or maybe to take her son away and hide him, pretending the boy to be his own, even though it is well known that Rhaegar has had a sexual relationship with Lyanna. Sex = babies. Contraception is not widely available. She could have used moon tea but so could Ashara, that is if you believe that she is the mother of Jon. R+L knew about the things we do for love and decided to have a child.

Ned says that he has shamed catelyn. I think the thing which Ned thought he shamed Catelyn for the most would be to keep your sisters child, whose father was the son of the mad King who killed the man she was going to marry. And then to lie every day and say that you cheated on her and had a son.Shame!

Perhaps, one of the most simplest arguments in determining Jon's parentage is in the title name, A Song of Ice and Fire. On one side you have Rhaegar Targaryen, who comes from the house that had Fire breathing dragons. On the other side you have Lyanna Stark, whose house were "The Kings of Winter" and were used to the hard, icy winters. Even their sword is called Ice. You then have a relationship between R+L, aka fire and ice. Just say that Jon is the result. Now compare this to N+A. Ned could symbolise Ice but could Ashara symbolisng Fire? No it just can't happen, Rhaegar is more a prominent figurehead for Fire. Back this up with the icy blue roses symbolising Lyanna and you get a title of a series and a parentless bastard.

One other small thing is that Lyanna's tomb is at Winterfell, she specifically requested it. Maybe becuase she wants to be near her son. Bran says that Ned's ghost wanted to tell Jon something down in the cripts. Jon's dream about wanting to go down into the tombs for something but he doesnt know what kind of backs the fact up that there is something down there he needs to know but cant. If I remember correctly, Jon has these dreams before Ned has died, so there is obviously some pre inclanation about something that might not relate to Ned, his so called Father.

I would say more but I just cant put all my thoughts and reasons to word.

[Edric Dayne]

1) There are many months after the Harrenhal tournament and before Brandon and Rickard's deaths where Ned is unaccounted for (most likely he's at The Vale). Ashara could have come to him then. This time would fit with Dany being "9 mo or thereabouts" (GRRM's words not mine) younger because according to The Citadel estimates, the fall of Dragonstone may have occurred around 10 months after Jon Arryn first raises his banners.

I think you've made a mistake in there. Dragonstone falls about the same time Dany is born, and her birth takes place 9 months after the Battle of the Trident. So if Dragonstone fell 10 months after Lord Arryn raised his banners then almost all the rebellion took place in one month. I don't believe that Ned and Robert reaching their lands, all the lords summoning their banners, Roberts three battles in one day, Ashford, the Battle of the Bells, and the weddings of the Tully girls all took place in a month.

[SFDanny]

MDIND, I'm not going to quote back to you all of your post because it is so long, but let me respond to some excellent points.

(1) We don't know Wylla's origins. We do know she is said to be a long time servant in Starfall from the perspective of the 12 year old Edric Dayne. We do know she would have to have been in contact with the Daynes from shortly after Jon's birth to the time of Edric's weaning to have her nursed both of them. This doesn't mean she was a servant of House Dayne before then.

(2) I'm not fully satisfied with the explanations of Ashara's suicide either, and have come up with all kinds of crackpot ideas (see "Aegon the Darkstar" and its related ideas) to explain it. That doesn't mean the death of her brother at Ned's hands isn't enough to do so.

I also don't find the "rejected lover" motive to be credible. The marriage of Ned to Catelyn and Jon Arryn to Lysa is a major political event that heralds an alliance in the war of three major Houses of Westeros against the Targaryen monarchy. It takes place long before Ned arrives in Starfall and the idea that Ashara only finds out about it at that time just makes no sense. One has to transform Starfall into another planet to do so.

(3) Ned HAS to lie to Robert in the "R+L=J" scenario whether he is any good at it or not, and he obviously does so under any scenario. Unless you believe the very, very unlikely idea that Ned is telling Robert the truth that Wylla is Jon's mother.

(4) Timeline questions. It is you who are being over generous in the possibilities for Ned and Ashara to conceive Jon. There are many windows for them to get together after the Harrenhal tourney, but only a few to match up with Jon's birth (the importance of Jon's birth relative to Daenerys.) All of which put them getting together in the first few months of the war. While Martin has said Ashara is not "nailed down" in Starfall, that fact does not make it any easier to envision Ashara traveling secretly through war ravaged territory to have a lover's tryst with Ned. We have numerous examples in the current timeline of what happens to people who try to travel across battlelines under these conditions (Jaime and Brienne, Arya, etc.) that to describe it as "easy" is just silly. Yes, as I've said, it could have happened. It is very hard to see it happening. There are no such problems with the "R+L=J" scenario.

btw, I don't deny the fact that Ned and Ashara would want to meet, especially after Brandon's death and his impending marriage to Catelyn. I just don't believe it is likely they did so in the time period it would have to take place in order to conceive Jon.

(5) "Euron's point." When Ned let's Jon go to the Wall the rule of Robert Baratheon is well established. Ned has promised Lyanna, if you believe "R+L=J," to protect Jon. To PROTECT him, not to put him on the throne over his friend Robert or Robert's heirs. Not to protect his claim to a throne over a king he helped to put there. At the time Jon leaves it is the best place Ned can see for him in a very limited world for the boy.

(6) Jon and Bran's dreams. Jon is being told he must go into the crypts, that there is something in the crypts he must know about. This is not his place as a Snow. It is if he is the legitimate child of Lyanna. It doesn't matter if Rhaegar is his father, he is still a Stark if Lyanna is his mother. As much as the "Baratheon" children of Cersei are also thought of as Lannisters.

(7) The "shame" question. None of Euron or your points deal with, in a sufficient manner, why Ned should be so ashamed to let anyone know of Jon's mothers identity if it is Ashara. Even if they conceived Jon after he has wed Catelyn, we know Catelyn has no problem with this. She understands it, but she doesn't understand bringing Jon to Winterfell. Ned is hardly the first Stark to father a bastard child (assuming Ashara is his mother.) Why should he not only torture his wife with Jon's presence, but more importantly, refuse to tell Jon his mother's identity? Shame doesn't even get close to explaining this.

Did I miss anything?

[Starkess]

(6) Jon and Bran's dreams. Jon is being told he must go into the crypts, that there is something in the crypts he must know about. This is not his place as a Snow. It is if he is the legitimate child of Lyanna. It doesn't matter if Rhaegar is his father, he is still a Stark if Lyanna is his mother. As much as the "Baratheon" children of Cersei are also thought of as Lannisters.

Actually, if R+L=J!legitimate theory is true, Jon is a LOT different than Joffrey/Tommen/Myrcella. They are thought of as Lannisters because a) they are 100% Lannister and their mother MAKES them Lannisters. She has Joffrey's Baratheon insignia quartered with the Lannister lion! Is Lyanna and Rhaegar are married and have Jon, then he is a Targaryen. This is what makes R+L=J so appealing to so many isn't it? The idea that Jon is the hidden heir? (That's the only reason to assume that R and L were married, so that Jon can be an heir.) You can't have both: Jon is either a legitimate Targ or a bastard Stark (according to R+L=J), not a legitimate Targ-Stark.

BTW, I'm not weighing in on R+L=J or N+A=J here.

[Shewoman]

I'm not at all sure that Ashara is dead.

I think Martin's comments about Jon's age in relation to Dany's (8 months to one year older) do give us a reasonable time frame for Jon's conception.

I don't see Ned having sex with Ashara after he knows he is to marry Catelyn or after he does marry her (which I think was in the first month or two of the war). It's not just a matter of honor but of the fact that, if she had a child, he would be unable to marry or protect her. If she was Jon's mother, he wouldn't name her for fear of shaming her (or her family, after her "death").

Ned, Jon, and a wetnurse got to Winterfell from the South before Catelyn and Robb got there from the much closer Riverrun. I don't think Wylla was ever at Winterfell; she is Ned's designated mother-to-be-revealed-in-case-of-emergency (he ID'd her to Robert as Jon's mother) and I don't think he'd want her to be anywhere near Catelyn or anyone else who might ask her questions about Jon's parentage.

Ned has all these memories of Lyanna, the promises she made him make to her, and her death. If the promises aren't about her child, what are they about? R+L does offer some explanation of why Ned, so many years later, constantly revisits her deathbed in his mind: a Targ heir was in a dangerous position at that time, as the deaths of Rhaenys and Aegon at the hands of Ned's allies made clear, and the fact that he doesn't reveal even to Jon who his mother was suggests that secrecy about the boy's parentage was one of the promises Lyanna demanded. If R+L does not equal J, we need some strong reason for Ned's obsession on this point.

[SFDanny]

Actually, if R+L=J!legitimate theory is true, Jon is a LOT different than Joffrey/Tommen/Myrcella. They are thought of as Lannisters because a) they are 100% Lannister and their mother MAKES them Lannisters. She has Joffrey's Baratheon insignia quartered with the Lannister lion! Is Lyanna and Rhaegar are married and have Jon, then he is a Targaryen. This is what makes R+L=J so appealing to so many isn't it? The idea that Jon is the hidden heir? (That's the only reason to assume that R and L were married, so that Jon can be an heir.) You can't have both: Jon is either a legitimate Targ or a bastard Stark (according to R+L=J), not a legitimate Targ-Stark.

BTW, I'm not weighing in on R+L=J or N+A=J here.

My point, and maybe Cersei's children aren't the best example to illustrate this because of their origins, is that children are not only thought of as belonging to their father's family. The Stark children also can claim their Tully heritage for example. So to can Jon claim his Stark heritage even if Rhaegar is his father.

[Starkess]

My point, and maybe Cersei's children aren't the best example to illustrate this because of their origins, is that children are not only thought of as belonging to their father's family. The Stark children also can claim their Tully heritage for example. So to can Jon claim his Stark heritage even if Rhaegar is his father.

I disagree. I haven't really gotten the impression that people claim their mother's House very often. The Stark children certainly don't seem to claim to be Tullys. For example, none of them would ever be buried in a flaming boat. Just like a Targaryen would not belong in the Stark crypts.