Fertility problems in the 21st century

[Datepalm]

*Ignoring for now the whole CFR vTFR controversy 'cos I'm far too lazy to go into that unless someone forces me to with threats of violence or offers of ice cream.

I can do either. Or both. I find this stuff fascinating for some reason.

[Usotsuki]

I can do either. Or both. I find this stuff fascinating for some reason.

Total fertility rate is calculated from the respective fertility rates of the separate age cohorts of women in the state. The cohorts are normally broken into five year spans.

14-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

34-39

40-44

45-49 (not always included)

You take the fertility rate of each group add it and you have the hypothetical fertility rate of a woman with a souped up DeLorean who went through her entire reproductive cycle in one year in exact conformity with each age group as it presently stands.

2.1 or above and the population is normally viewed as expanding, below and it's shrinking.

One major problem with TFR is that it's bad at capturing changes in patterns of procreation, the shift towards later pregnancy for example.

The completed fertility rate is marvellously good at capturing changes in the patterns of reproduction because it is calculated from the actual procreation of women who have reached the end of their child bearing years, however since the window for child-bearing spans more than three decades knowing the accurate CFR of women born in 1960 (our most recent data) isn't always terribly helpful.

In short the CFR tells us what happened the TFR gives us an idea of what might be happening but needs to be treated carefully because of our uncertainty about shifts in the pattern. (I felt the need for a Randland reference)

Edit: The actual controversy, which I completely forgot to mention, is that when states claim to have changed the fertility rate there is a counter-argument asserting that they haven't changed the CFR merely caused a bump in the TFR that will be corrected for by a later slump. Can I still have ice cream?

[Datepalm]

Edit: The actual controversy, which I completely forgot to mention, is that when states claim to have changed the fertility rate there is a counter-argument asserting that they haven't changed the CFR merely caused a bump in the TFR that will be corrected for by a later slump. Can I still have ice cream?

Bucketfuls. You can have violence too, if you like :whip:

Why should a bump necessarily be followed by a slump? (er, statistically.) If something holds true for a particular cohort, why shouldn't it generally hold for the ones after it? (i'm assuming anecdotal one off events like nation wide snow-ins are stastically irrelevant.) Or did people for some reason have kids at a given moment that they would then fail to have later?

Your post was still edited by "Usotski" (who is that?). Its rather disconcerting.

[Inigima]

On the contrary, I don't have any choice in the matter, since we live in this area due to my parents in law, who are old and who cannot be left, since we are the only living relatives. I live over 1h outside of London, but still in the "commuter belt", hence the prices are what they are. I don't live here because it is fancy, but because I have to.

Thoughts that occur to me are (a) that they could move elsewhere -- if they are incapable you could assist -- and (b) that you could also rent, which I mentioned earlier but I didn't see you address.

Please don't feel I'm piling on -- I think Mina's economic worldview is too harsh and uncaring, and she knows it. I just question whether you genuinely don't have other options.

EDIT:

Your post was still edited by "Usotski" (who is that?). Its rather disconcerting.

Usotsuki is a board regular, but I didn't hear he had become a mod and I now can't find him in the member list. Odd.

[Datepalm]

I was wondering when someone would bring up Harrison Bergeron. Cos obviously, tying weights to athletes' legs is exactly the same as expecting those who have benefited most from society to help out those who have been shat on by the same system. :rolleyes:

There should be some kind of Godwinesque Bergeron rule. "With every mention of Harrison Bergeron, the likeliness of the debate descending into the doom an unproductive entrenched rehashed argument of free market/social(ism?) democracy, possibly divided along American/European lines in a way that does not say much for its unfetteredness of cultural mores vis. moral and intellectual rigour, doubles."

[MinDonner]

Usotsuki is a board regular, but I didn't hear he had become a mod and I now can't find him in the member list. Odd.

You might want to check out the Identity Theft thread; Usotsuki is currently doing his best Hereward-impression and (AFAIK) has no mod-like powers...

[The Iceman of the North]

Thoughts that occur to me are (a) that they could move elsewhere -- if they are incapable you could assist -- and (b) that you could also rent, which I mentioned earlier but I didn't see you address.

Getting old people to move from an area they have lived most of their life, just so they can live closer to their kids, doesn't sound like a viable solution.

[Usotsuki]

Datepalm,

In so far as there are any undisputed facts in demography it's agreed that incentives can shift dates of conception, if I offer a significant bonus for births in 2010 I'll get a baby boom.

One Russian governor got a remarkable response to what was IIRC an offer of a free car for a birth in a specific year, there was a noticeable decline in birth rates in the subsequent years (it's worth noting that he completely screwed his school system by doing this - oopsie).

The argument is that dates of conception are much more amenable to change than overall family size, so by introducing incentives I simply encourage people to reproduce whilst those incentives are in place rather than raising the total number of childrena woman will have by the end of her cycle.

I don't think it completely captures the truth but there is IMO a deal of uncertainty as to how much incentives shift the age of reproduction and to what extent they increase the rate of reproduction and it's not till we get the completed fertility rates that there will be a definite answer.

I have no solid information on who this Usotsuki person is or what its purpose might be but I feel it is probably some unEnglish deceiver who poses a serious threat to us all, and must be lightly chastised to the sounds of a Welsh choir.

And now I need a brief lie down in a darkened room

[Hereward]

I have no solid information on who this Usotsuki person is or what its purpose might be but I feel it is probably some unEnglish deceiver who poses a serious threat to us all, and must be lightly chastised to the sounds of a Welsh choir.

And now I need a brief lie down in a darkened room

He's a man, and possibly a home-owner. I think that's all you need to know about him and his role in this backwards society. :mad:

[Filippa Eilhart]

Getting old people to move from an area they have lived most of their life, just so they can live closer to their kids, doesn't sound like a viable solution.

totally depends on the people. A lot of people move to the south of France for their retirement, after all ;)

I might be totally misremembering, but I thought the separate bedrooms for children etc law Chal mentioned earlier referred to rental, not ownership, in which case you could buy a one bedroom flat if you had 2 children but couldn't legally rent it. Anyway, I might be wrong.

[The Iceman of the North]

totally depends on the people. A lot of people move to the south of France for their retirement, after all ;)

My guess is that quite few of those actually move closer to their children.

[Datepalm]

I don't think it completely captures the truth but there is IMO a deal of uncertainty as to how much incentives shift the age of reproduction and to what extent they increase the rate of reproduction and it's not till we get the completed fertility rates that there will be a definite answer.

So - once you've recovered, that is - can we trust reports of rising birthrates across northwestern europe in any way, (except in the UK, which is naturally the sole most trustworthy of nations. Word of an Englishman and so on.) or is some temporary wishful thinking on their part? If the trend is for pregnancies older and older, it means quite old cohorts are now adding more significantly to the CFR, so its going to take even longer to get the data in. (On the other hand, that data should be upwards?)

[The Iceman of the North]

The question is, was there much of a decline in the birthrates in the first place? Was the decline in birthrates was simply caused by people having children later, rather than having less children?

[Usotsuki]

Datepalm and Datepalmish,

Well clearly we English can be trusted, though sadly our statistics also include the Scots, some Irish and of course the Welsh so our clear and accurate reports are sullied by their drunken ramblings and vague guesses as to the number of barefoot and wormy children that infest their smoky tenements, sod roofed huts and residential mines.

If I were forced to take a stand I would say that the UK's TFR was suppressed in the recent past by the shift to later child-bearing and has now stabilised ceteribus paribus.

But since all things tend not to stay the same I wouldn't bet on it with great confidence, demography is destiny but normally we only see exactly how with the benefit of hindsight.

[Minaku]

I don't know, I just think judging men on their income, assets and willingness to settle down is pretty shallow. If a woman views a man that way then I don't think she can complain too much if her husband looks on her as a child bearer and part-time kitchen appliance. Regardless, a woman in her mid twenties who wants a man with a house, a car and a stable income would do well to look at men in their 30s and onwards. All these things are extremely difficult to achieve in your mid-twenties.

If we cannot use things like income and assets as a predictor of what life will be like when getting together with another person, might as well just pick some Joe Schmoe off the street and date him. Or Jill Schmill if you'd like. I've already explained why I singled out men and not both men and women. I'm female and fully capable of living on my own with no help needed. I think a male should be at the same standards I set for myself. Used to be that men could cook for themselves, and do their own laundry. I've seen more and more mama's boys - I'm younger than you - and it's my hope that they do grow up soon.

If an adult woman looking to have babies is on the look out for a man with a house of his own and a steady income then what is that same man on the look out for? He already has the house and the steady income, so obviously not those. A uterus? Someone who looks after his house and kids while he goes out to earn his steady income? If a woman would be independant and have control over her own life then looking for the economic means for their independence by finding a partner who has them seems self-defeating.

Why wouldn't he also look for someone similarly independent and financially stable? We're not talking rich, or even a homeowner, just someone who is firmly on his or her own. Two financially independent people entering into a relationship is a lot better than your proposal, which is golddigging. I don't condone that. The reason why my husband's co-worker broke up with her ex was because he was not living on his own yet, and she was not willing to put up with that behavior in a married man. She wasn't about to move into his mother's basement, and if he moved into her apartment it'd be a lot like living in his mother's basement, except he would have swapped his mother for his wife-to-be.

The independent woman you mention should be looking for an equally independent partner who has demonstrated he or she has the skills to survive and thrive in current society. Living in your mother's basement does not demonstrate that. Being of a certain age also does not demonstrate that. I don't see why any person of either gender wouldn't want someone who is low-maintenance.

Well, this is going nowhere. I tried to explain myself, and it's like you've ignored what I've said previously, so I'll leave off here.

One of the dumber things I've read lately. I prefer actual facts and numbers to stupid anecdotes, sorry. And the facts clearly show that progressive taxation works very well in order to enhance standard of living for everyone.

:rofl: I am tickled pink by you calling a famous Kurt Vonnegut short story "stupid anecdotes". It's satire, and over the top at that.

[Datepalm]

If I were forced to take a stand I would say that the UK's TFR was suppressed in the recent past by the shift to later child-bearing and has now stabilised ceteribus paribus.

Could be amusing if there really never was a drop in birthrates, merely an appearance of one over the past 15 years or so, which is well within a single womans cycle. What will be done with all the pro natal policies, tax remittances, cash handout, gifts of consumer goods, fear of aging societies, proposals of raised pension age, bitching about those generations xers and their lack of babies, the threatened demise of Christian Europe and its demographic overtake by the Islamic masses, etc, etc...

Imagine the things that could have been accomplished with all that wasted energy!

[Inigima]

You might want to check out the Identity Theft thread; Usotsuki is currently doing his best Hereward-impression and (AFAIK) has no mod-like powers...

Aha. Thanks.

[Inigima]

Getting old people to move from an area they have lived most of their life, just so they can live closer to their kids, doesn't sound like a viable solution.

People do this all the time. Sometimes they even move in with their kids.

[Usotsuki]

Imagine the things that could have been accomplished with all that wasted energy!

But these are the issues that stir the blood of a trueborn Englishman, at least, they are until we get distracted by something else.

I used to have extremely strong opinions about privatisation, deployment of cruise in Europe, German re-unification, and people who left spoons in their coffee cups and then drank with the spoon still there.

And I no longer have any idea what these opinions were, except for the coffee cup people of course, who should clearly be executed.

[Hereward]

I think I hate you. It's really depressing when other people do a better you than you do.