[ADWD SPOILERS] Ned, Brandon and Ashara

[LadyMary]

You missed out two important points.

Barristan seems to like and respect Ned when they interacted earlier in the series. But he loved Ashara, so it seems unlikely that he would like and respect the man who dishonoured her.

And look at the people Ashara danced with at Harrenhal. Connington, Oberyn Martell, Barristan. And Brandon asked her to dance with Ned. So she is hanging out with probably the 4 most dashing and eligible young men in the kingdom (well, Barristan's a bit older, but something of a legend already) outside Rhaegar. Nearly all are older than Ned, and/or heirs or Lords in their own right. Ned is younger and a second son.

There is absolutely no indication that Ashara ever returned shy Ned's interest, just that she danced with him when the older, bigger, stronger, more handsome, more eligible big brother asked. She might have, but we have no indications she did.

So, we have:

Fact (KotLT story): Lady Ashara Dayne hanging out with a bunch of top dogs.

Fact (KotLT story): One top dog has a younger brother with a bit of a crush, asks Ashara to Dance with him.

Fact (Barristan memory): Ashara was dishonoured by 'a Stark' at Harennhal.

Fact (Dustin story + response to Lyanna 'abduction'): Brandon has a history of dishonouring young noblewomen, as well as rash and irresponsible behaviour.

Fact + character (various sources): Brandon was bigger, stronger, better looking, more fun (wild vs dull shy Ned) and a better catch than Ned, and fits with the crowd Ashara was running with at Harrenhal (whereas Ned is very much the odd one out)

Character: Barristan loved Ashara, thought 'a Stark' dishonoured her, yet still respected Ned.

Speculation: Starfall folks say Ned+Ashara=item, however they may not have known who, or which Stark, dishonoured her at al, and even if they did are Targ loyalists who would support N+A for J cover-story potential.

Speculation: Winterfell folks think N+A=item, but they weren't involved at all until after Ned returned home with Jon, so don't really have much to go on.

Character: Shy and honourable Ned dishonours the girl? Or Wild and dishonourable Brandon dishonours the girl? Things make more sense when people act within their established characters, which does not prevent people from acting outside their usual character.

It's possible that Brandon was the father of Ashara's stillborn daughter, but then why are the rumors of Ned, not Brandon? Why do the Daynes and various others think Ned and Ashara fell in love and that she killed herself because Ned broke her heart?

I think it's possible that Ned is just a normal, red-blooded man who fell in love with a woman, made love to her and got her with child...just not the child that some people think and he had to live with that guilt and grief along with the guilt of lying to his wife about the true parentage of Jon.

Barristan may believe it was Brandon, because Brandon had a reputation and was making the rounds at Harrenhal. He may not believe it's Ned because Ned has otherwise proven to be honorable and decent - except for allegedly fathering Jon (at least Ned took responsibility for his alleged bastard). Or, it may be that Barristan understands how the politics of the situation work and while he may resent that Ned got Ashara pregnant, he's capable of compartmentalizing his personal feelings about Ned, from his rational assessment of Ned's character leading up to the execution. Even if he resented Ned "dishonoring" Ashara, he thought that what was done to Ned was an injustice.

Seems pretty clear that it is in fact considerably less likely that it was Ned. But it is still possible.

Or...

Brandon impregnates Ashara at Harrenhal, but she has a stillborn baby girl (as Barristan believes). Ashara doesn't tell people (or not many people) who the father is and undertakes religious training as she is no longer fit for marriage.

Baby Aegon was switched by Varys (as claimed by Varys) and sent to Essos, picking up Ashara Dayne along the way.

ToJ happens and Ned turns up at Starfall with Jon (R+L=J).

In close proximity to Ned's visit (the same time or shortly after) Ashara 'suicides', diving into the sea and being picked up by Varys' ship carrying baby Aegon.

Various people put 2+2 together and come up with Ashara+Ned@Harrenhal and Ned sees no reason to disabuse them since it provides another cover rumour for Jon.

Ashara becomes Septa Lemore, raising YG (baby Aegon).

Jon becomes Ned Stark's Bastard.

Jon and YG are half-brothers.

I think Septa Lemore is more likely the mother of Tyrene Sand, not Ashara, but we will see. Otherwise, I pretty much share your speculations. If Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son, he's YG's half-brother.

I think it's possible that Ashara Dayne's baby daughter wasn't really stillborn but was the baby switched with Aegon (assuming that really is Aegon). Babies don't look like boys or girls particularly and if she was dressed as "Rhaegar's son" people would see "Rhaegar's son" because they wouldn't expect a replacement. And who was going to look under the diaper to confirm the baby's sex when confronted with "the red ruin" of his head.

The Daynes don't have Valyrian blood. They are a house much older than the Valyrian incursion into Westeros, 1000s of years old where Aegon only invaded 300 years back.

I think that there are better options that are a lot less intricate and see more people acting within character all the way.

I also think you are stuck with the Ned + Ashara = item theory from before ADwD. That was a sound theory then, as it fitted all the info we had except Ned's honour. But when you look at the fit, it is actually very weak. There is no indication of anything from Ashara's side at Harrenhal, lots of other reasons for 'suicide' and none of the people supporting the rumours of N+A were actually involved until after Ned turns up with Jon (except possibly some Starfall people who have reason to support a N+A cover story).

Why would the Starfall people support a lie that made Ned seem like a heartbreaker and dishonored the memory of Ashara, even to protect Rhaegar's son when it was more convenient to use Willa as the natural mother?

I don't know. I'm just not convinced that Brandon had much to do with this whatever his character.

[reiver]

Or, it may be that Barristan understands how the politics of the situation work and while he may resent that Ned got Ashara pregnant, he's capable of compartmentalizing his personal feelings about Ned, from his rational assessment of Ned's character leading up to the execution. Even if he resented Ned "dishonoring" Ashara, he thought that what was done to Ned was an injustice.

If i remember rightly we get Barristan's opinion of ned via speech not from his thoughts so that supports what you say. There's a big difference between bad-mouthing a guy (especially to a queen who you're trying to snap out of her rigid and un-nuanced views) and not really liking the guy because of something he did.

[darrylzero]

It's possible that Brandon was the father of Ashara's stillborn daughter, but then why are the rumors of Ned, not Brandon? Why do the Daynes and various others think Ned and Ashara fell in love and that she killed herself because Ned broke her heart?

I think it's possible that Ned is just a normal, red-blooded man who fell in love with a woman, made love to her and got her with child...just not the child that some people think and he had to live with that guilt and grief along with the guilt of lying to his wife about the true parentage of Jon.

Barristan may believe it was Brandon, because Brandon had a reputation and was making the rounds at Harrenhal. He may not believe it's Ned because Ned has otherwise proven to be honorable and decent - except for allegedly fathering Jon (at least Ned took responsibility for his alleged bastard). Or, it may be that Barristan understands how the politics of the situation work and while he may resent that Ned got Ashara pregnant, he's capable of compartmentalizing his personal feelings about Ned, from his rational assessment of Ned's character leading up to the execution. Even if he resented Ned "dishonoring" Ashara, he thought that what was done to Ned was an injustice.

This sounds right to me, and it's what I want to believe. However, I think the people talking timeline have a point. If Harrenhall really was 1-2 years before the rebellion, that pretty much means that the stillbirth would have happened at the very earliest around the time that Rhaegar made off with Lyanna. And I fail to see why if this is the case Ned and Ashara wouldn't already be married.

Much as I don't like to admit it (retcon the timeline, George!), the possibility that Brandon is involved here has to be taken seriously. Could Ned and Ashara have fallen in love *after* she became pregnant? That could be sweet and sad too.

This works great for the baby-swapping theories, also. If Ashara was loyal enough to Elia and/or convinced by Rhaegar's interpretation of prophecy, she might have been willing to go through with the baby swap and pretend she had a stillborn girl instead of a healthy boy. Could Wylla have come into this picture because she was a member of the Dayne household who had a stillborn girl at approximately the same time?

That's all very elegant, except that my gut tells me that YG is not really Aegon, and if Ashara killed herself because her baby *and* her brother ended up being killed over all this, that all points to him being the real thing. I dunno.

I think Septa Lemore is more likely the mother of Tyrene Sand, not Ashara, but we will see.

This also sounds right to me, except that I don't think that the Martells are in on the existence of YG. All that effort with Viserys and Dany when there's a better claim out there (allegedly)? Doesn't add up to me.

Otherwise, I pretty much share your speculations. If Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son, he's YG's half-brother.

I think it's possible that Ashara Dayne's baby daughter wasn't really stillborn but was the baby switched with Aegon (assuming that really is Aegon). Babies don't look like boys or girls particularly and if she was dressed as "Rhaegar's son" people would see "Rhaegar's son" because they wouldn't expect a replacement. And who was going to look under the diaper to confirm the baby's sex when confronted with "the red ruin" of his head.

I see no reason why they wouldn't just lie about the sex of the baby. Also, see Wylla speculation above.

Why would the Starfall people support a lie that made Ned seem like a heartbreaker and dishonored the memory of Ashara, even to protect Rhaegar's son when it was more convenient to use Willa as the natural mother?

I don't know. I'm just not convinced that Brandon had much to do with this whatever his character.

I think the Brandon + Ashara = dead baby "Aegon" fits this all very neatly also. The lie about Ashara's dishonor is not a lie, and they respect Ned for carrying the public guilt over all this when he didn't have to, in order to soften the blow.

So, if YG is the real thing, I think it's highly likely that Ashara did not have a stillbirth (or a girl) and that her boy was murdered in place of Aegon. In this scenario, Ashara really did kill herself, Lemore is someone else, and I imagine Aegon contracts greyscale from Connington in the next book and dies. Ned doesn't think about this very much because either the baby was Brandon's or because Ashara didn't let him in on what was going on (or both). I actually think it's quite possible that she feels so much guilt and anxiety over this that she actually refuses Ned's offer of marriage (beginning already, depressed as she is, to adopt the role of doomed, tragic heroine).

The question is, how does this all work if YG is a fake like I suspect? Under this scenario, there was no baby swap. Someone had a fun theory that it was intended that there be a baby swap but Varys did not actually swap the baby. I guess this is possible, if Varys secretly hates the Targaryens and just wants the chance to groom a ruler, but it seems even more farfetched than if the baby swap occurred. Also, why would Rhaegar, Elia, or Ashara bring Varys in on this except in desperation? He could have found out through his little birds and sabotaged the whole thing (by swapping the babies back at the last minute or something?), but that seems like a pretty convoluted backstory.

If YG is not really Aegon, I think it's much more elegant that Varys seizes on the idea of Aegon being secretly swapped out only *after* he sees Aegon's unrecognizably bloodied face. Soon after, Illyrio has or finds a Targ-looking kid (doesn't YG seem a little young to be Aegon?) and voila, plans are set in motion.

What does that mean about Ashara? It means she really did have a stillbirth. It means there's no good reason Ned and she would not have married before the stillbirth occurred, unless Ned is not the father (or the timeline is wrong somehow). It means that we're back to the same confusion about why either:

1) Ned would seem to have no bitterness toward his brother if he really did fall in love with an already-pregnant Ashara. Or,

2) Neither the Daynes nor Barristan seem to bear Ned ill will for dishonoring Ashara.

My favorite possibility here is that Ned and Ashara fell in love at Harrenhall, Barristan assumes they did it, but they didn't actually have sex right away. This way, we can see how Ned was working on getting permission to marry her when his Rickard and Brandon are killed. Barristan understands that they were actually in love but duty and war came between them. Not entirely honorable, exactly, but not the kind of thing for him to stay bitter at Ned over.

It opens the possibility that Varys contacts her and asks her to help parent baby "Aegon" (though in this theory, he's probably already in Pentos and doesn't need help getting over there), so she fakes her suicide. But I still think she's probably dead. Thoughts? Is this a useful breakdown of the issues?

[Mark3]

Who says Brandon deflowered half the realm? You exaggerate. In fact, we've yet to hear if Brandon was even promiscuous. What's suggested in the text is merely that Brandon was the sort of guy who would sleep with noble girls and then not marry them.

Moreover, Brandon was just 20 years old when he died. One bastard with Ashara doesn't seem too low I would say when he was particular about the quality of his conquests.

Yes, I exaggerate. But it seems to me a big lynchpin of the Brandon/Ashara contingent is that Brandon was the big ladies man that Ned was not, and therefore more likely to land Ashara and get her pregant. There were people upthread arguing that Brandon was reckless with women and had no qualms about deflowering highborn ladies.

Also, I argued in the other thread that Brandon might have been a bit of a jerk, but it takes a BIG, BIG time jerk to set your little brother up with his crush and then nail her yourself - which is what he would have had to do according to the KotLT story. AND he would have had to do so while engaged to another woman. My point is that we don't really know Brandon was that kind of guy AT ALL.

I just think the Brandon/Ashara argument is an awful lot of speculation based presumed personalities of those involved and a couple of wiggle words in the Barristan POV - no actual fact.

[Mark3]

If i remember rightly we get Barristan's opinion of ned via speech not from his thoughts so that supports what you say. There's a big difference between bad-mouthing a guy (especially to a queen who you're trying to snap out of her rigid and un-nuanced views) and not really liking the guy because of something he did.

Also on top of that, if Barristan really does hate the guy who sleeps with Ashara, he is being a huge hypocrite. After all, he himself CANNOT MARRY. Therefore, any intimate relationship he pursues with Ashara (and he was clearly hoping for that in some way) would be a hell of a lot more taboo than 2 unmarried young folks gettin' it on. He is clearly a guy who is able to separate high character and romantic desire.

[Markus]

Yes, I exaggerate. But it seems to me a big lynchpin of the Brandon/Ashara contingent is that Brandon was the big ladies man that Ned was not, and therefore more likely to land Ashara and get her pregant. There were people upthread arguing that Brandon was reckless with women and had no qualms about deflowering highborn ladies.

Which can all be true without Brandon deflowering half the realm and having half a dozen bastards before he was twenty.

Also, I argued in the other thread that Brandon might have been a bit of a jerk, but it takes a BIG, BIG time jerk to set your little brother up with his crush and then nail her yourself - which is what he would have had to do according to the KotLT story. AND he would have had to do so while engaged to another woman. My point is that we don't really know Brandon was that kind of guy AT ALL.

We know that Brandon still had sex with Barbrey Ryswell after it was announced that he would have to marry Cat. We also know that Brandon was about 15 when his father arranged his marriage, so he might even have known that he was to marry Cat before he deflowered Barbrey Ryswell. But you're right that we don't know that Brandon is the sort of guy who would set up his brother with a crush and then become involved with the crush himself. But we don't know that he wasn't just this kind of guy either. We don't know for sure one way or another if Brandon was a guy who made his own move after it became apparent that Ashara wasn't interested in Ned.

Anyway, Selmy's thoughts lend themselves to him believing that Brandon and Ashara were involved and the recent revelations about Brandon's character make it sound as if he was far more likely than Ned was to dishonor her, as in fathering a child with her and then not marrying her. Which in turn lends itself to the view that Brandon was indeed a guy who would move in on his little brother's probably unrequited crush.

I just think the Brandon/Ashara argument is an awful lot of speculation based presumed personalities of those involved and a couple of wiggle words in the Barristan POV - no actual fact.

I consider Selmy as the best and most reliable source we've had about Ashara, Ned and Brandon. Selmy had a clear interest in Ashara's fate. He was at Harrenhal. He was at court where Ashara may have gone back to after being dishonored at Harrenhal. And he was also a sworn brother of Ashara's brother, and so would have had possible access to inside information.

This makes him a more trustworthy source than some random guards of Ned who may just have seen Ned dancing with Ashara at HH and later seen Ned coming back from Starfall with Jon and could have drawn their own possibly ill-informed conclusions from this. Selmy is also a better source than Edric Dayne. Edric was just repeating what his aunt was telling him. And his aunt Allyria was likely not yet born or a young child when the relevant events occured.

In fact, if Ashara wasn't forthcoming about the identity of the father of her child at Starfall, many of the people there may be speculating on the basis of what they saw, and they only saw Ned at Starfall after the war. So Ned coming to Starfall, possibly with Jon, followed by Ashara apparently committing suicide may have led people there to conclude that it was Ned who had broken her heart. Hence, what Allyria and Edric say about it.

[Wolf of the North]

The timeline doesn't support this scenario though.

[...]

If Ashara became pregnant from being "dishonored" at Harrenhal by Ned her child would have been born before or at about the time the war started though. If Ned wanted to marry Ashara he had therefore plenty of time to do it if their respective parents didn't disallow it, and it's quite clear that any marriage should have been before a bastard was born.

I agree, the gap of time between the Harrenhal tournament and Brandon's death is the strongest argument against Ned being the one who "dishonored" Ashara. Barring interference from Rickard (who, we have been told, was an honorable man and presumably unlikely to object to his son doing the responsible thing after deflowering a lady of noble birth and getting her pregnant), not only did Ned have no obstacles that we're aware of to a marriage with Ashara, based on his character it's exactly what he would have done. Catelyn specifically mentions that if Ned had been in Robb's position with respect to Jeyne, he would have done the same as Robb and married her. Ned's betrothal to Catelyn in Brandon's place is irrelevant to the suggested relationship with Ashara because, as you say, her daughter would have been born before then.

Assuming that "the man who dishonored her" and "turning to Stark" are the same person (which is left somewhat ambiguous by the phrasing), that leaves either Brandon, whom we know to have deflowered at least one other lady of noble birth, or Benjen, who joined the Night's Watch for reasons yet unclear.

That being said, it doesn't explain why the Stark responsible didn't marry Ashara. If it was Brandon, would he have stayed betrothed to Cat rather than doing his duty by Ashara? If it was Benjen, he wasn't promised to anyone as far as we know. From what we know of Rickard, unless he was desperate for the Tully alliance it seems strange that he would leave Ashara to her dishonor.

[Selmy]

Being a younger son is not necessarily a barrier.

Both these fit with either Ned or Brandon knocking up Ashara.

Assuming Ashara suicided at all...

Grief for her 'love being married to another' isn;t necessary to explain suicide anyway, its just cherry on the top.

Explain the following:

- Barristan, who loved Ashara, seems to respect and honour Ned Stark despite Ned being the man who dishonoured her at Harrenhal.

- Arthur Dayne seems sad to have to fight Ned Stark at ToJ despite Ned being the man who dishonoured his sister.

- A Stark dishonoured Ashara at Harrenhal. Brandon, with a track record of the same behaviour (Lady Dustin) is not involved but honourable Ned Stark is?

- Barristan's experience is that a young woman always chooses wildness (fire?) over stability (mud). His experience is basically Ashara at Harrenhal and Dany. So he is characterising Ned Stark as wild/firey?

I don't think Ashara would have under normal circumstances been allowed to marry Ned. What were his options really? To run a small keep in the North or be a household soldier for his brother? Not exactly a promising prospect for the daughter of pretty big noble house.

I haven't really bought into the idea that Septa Lemore is Ashara. I know a lot of people like the idea, but I haven't seen enough evidence. I suppose she could know Jon's true parentage or be a long lost lover interest for Barristan, but I don't really see what she would add to the story.

Respect and admiration are different things. I think Barristan could have been angry at Ned for dishonoring Ashara, but respected him for being honorable and dutiful. Especially if Ned had originally hoped and planned to marry Ashara.

Same deal for Arhtur Dayne. I'm sure he would have also regretted killing the young man that he knew his sister loved.

I know we learn a lot about Brandon in ADWD, albeit from a somewhat biased source. I'm just having a hard time believing that even being the "Wild Wolf," that he would sleep with the one girl that he knew his little brother loved.

I don't think your "Barristan 'chicks dig fiery guys'" assumption is necessarily true or relevant.

[snake]

Anyway, Selmy's thoughts lend themselves to him believing that Brandon and Ashara were involved

I cannot recall reading anything like that. Could you give me the quote or the page number?

[Wolf of the North]

Page 879:

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

No direct implication of Brandon; what leads to Brandon is more our knowledge of his character, and Ned's, from other sources.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Also, another reason as to why it would be Ned it's because it mirros Robb's story. Ned loved a woman from a minor house that opposed him, slept with her, but ultimately choose what was best for the North and the realm and married the Riverlands girl. Then he went to the war and won it.

Meanwhile, Robb was in the exact same situation, but chose love, and the Red Wedding happened.

[Starks in the Crypt]

I had a few thoughts.

A poster commented that a Brandon/Ashara tryst took away from the romance of a star-crossed Ned/Ashara tryst but if true it would at the same time deepen a lot of other storylines for me. Ned keeps the truth from Cat not only to protect Jon's backstory but also to keep Brandon as an honorable figure in Cat's eyes. Lyanna's views of Robert as a future cheat makes even more sense as she observes Brandon's example.

Also, the scene at the ToJ where Ned says he swore vows and Authur Dayne sadly replies "We all swore vows". Ned is the brother of the guy who "dishonored" Authur's sister but at the same time he is sworn to protect essentially the mistress of the prince. Ned and Authur are both honorable men in service to less honorable men that they admire nonetheless. If Brandon/Ashara is true, it makes the ToJ encounter even more meaningful.

Going in another direction altogether (even more parsing of Selmy's quote)...

I had a crackpot idea reading Barristan's quote. In the first sentence, Selmy thinks Ashara could have possibly committed suicide due to grief for the man who dishonored her. In a later sentence, he says Ashara "turns to Stark" instead of him. The way the quote reads, there is a possibility that the man who "dishonors" her is not neccessarily Stark; ie she is "turning to" someone after being dishonored by Person A. In other words, Ashara is dishonored by someone and is shamed by this "dishonor" and "turns to Stark". Lets think about what this premise has working for it and against it:

For it:

It is widely reported that Ned and Ashara were close and at the same time it seems unlikely that Ned would knock up Ashara without marrying her. Also, as Ned and Selmy are on friendly terms, that too makes sense. If Ashara turns to Ned AFTER being dishonored, Selmy would be jealous of Ned and his closeness with Ashara but at the same time would not think poorly of Ned as Ned would be just a very close friend in this scenario.

It would also help with the suicide timing angle. There is a gap between the suicide and Brandon's death. Ashara has had time to react to Brandon's death; if the person who dishonored her had recently died in the Battle of the Trident or the Sack of King's Landing, Ned would likely be first person to relay that as he sprinted from the Trident with the Robert's van to KL and then from KL immediately went to ToJ after a fight with Robert in KL.

Against it:

Who dishonored her then if not Ned or Brandon? It would have to be someone recently dead that Ned had knowledge of, someone who would dishonor her and yet whom she thought enough of to grieve for and bonus points given to those suitors with "more fire than mud" (or however Selmy described Dany and her attraction to Darrio). The only candidate that springs to mind is Rhaeger. He is eager to fulfill his prophecy, Ashara is close at hand and Darry lineage has First Men blood which is again the "Ice" part of "Fire and Ice". Of coarse Rhaeger fancies Lyanna but he only meets her in Harrenhal by chance (in other words he gets Ashara pregnant in service of the prophecy as Rhaeger is as clumsy servicing the prophecy as everyone else). I would not consider Rhaeger fiery, more the mud type, but then again Fire and Blood is the Targ motto and Ashara would feel rightly scorned to be Elia's surrogate baby maker one moment and then unexpectantly thrown off for Lyanna suddenly.

Actually, if you want to view Rhaeger as the person who dishonored Ashara, that could make some sense and pull several plot strands together. Selmy is loathe to think poorly of those he is serving, so he would not have negative internal thoughts about Rhaeger. Ashara and Ned makes even more sense as close friends as Rhaeger took Ned's sister and left Ashara preggers, so Ned and Ashara have a lot to talk about. If you want to imagine Ashara as Lemore, again Ned and Ashara are allies...Ned says he saw Ashara leap to her death and also pretends that Jon is their baby which serves to protect Jon. Lyanna could very well have exacted a promise to protect all of Rhaeger's children. Another part of Selmy's quote that points toward Rhaeger, is that he imagines himself winning the tourney and that thought makes sense in that Rhaeger had won the tourney and would have been in Selmy's thoughts in the previous sentence (ie his thoughts of Rhaeger in the first sentence carry over into the second sentence).

[FalseSpring]

Has anyone considered that the "dishonouring" could be... rape? What if a drunk Brandon Stark raped Ashara at Harrenhal? I know, the Starks are all the heroes and stuff and we don't want to think of them like that, but we don't really know a lot about Brandon Stark. The whole "dishonouring" part is throwing me off though.

This.

Lady Dustin doesn't seem to have been "dishonoured" even though Brandon obviously took her v-card. So maybe Ashara was different in the sense that it was rape.

[corbon]

It's possible that Brandon was the father of Ashara's stillborn daughter, but then why are the rumors of Ned, not Brandon? Why do the Daynes and various others think Ned and Ashara fell in love and that she killed herself because Ned broke her heart?

...

Why would the Starfall people support a lie that made Ned seem like a heartbreaker and dishonored the memory of Ashara, even to protect Rhaegar's son when it was more convenient to use Willa as the natural mother?

I've explained this many times before, and referenced it in another part you quoted, but here it is again.

After the war Ned disappears (ToJ). He reappears a month or more later (travel time, ToJ etc) coming out of Starfall with a baby and leaving behind a noblewoman suicide.

What do you think people are going to think?

Winterfell people may additionally know Ned had a crush on Ashara Dayne. They may know of a hushed up scandal between Stark and Dayne after Harrenhal. They might even know that Ned, or Brandon (whichever) slept with Ashara and got her pregnant then, though probably not I would guess.

Starfall people may only know that Ashara slept with a Stark (or just 'someone') at Harrenhal. If Ashara went away (to a convent or similar) to have her child, then Ned comes up to Starfall after she gets back, with a baby and she kills herself... Or they know more and are loyalists protecting Jon and Aegon (Ashara's suicide is a cover for her taking Aegon into hiding). Or Ned smuggled the baby into Starfall and all most Starfall people know is that Ned rode away with a baby, or... there are lots of ways the rumour could be supported, even from Starfall. Outside Starfall it is almost axiomatic that such a rumour would start based on Ned returning from Starfall with a babe and leaving the suicide. People put together 2+2 and get 4, even though that is not the true answer (its not 2+2= N+A/W anyway, its 3+4 = R+L).

I think it's possible that Ned is just a normal, red-blooded man who fell in love with a woman, made love to her and got her with child...just not the child that some people think and he had to live with that guilt and grief along with the guilt of lying to his wife about the true parentage of Jon.

Sure, its possible. I don't think anyone is actually saying it is impossible it was Ned, although it might sound that way. But the evidence certainly points most strongly at Brandon now, a great weight of accumulated evidence. Certainly a lot of people are saying it is impossible or unreasonable it was Brandon, which is why the argument is happening.

Barristan may believe it was Brandon, because Brandon had a reputation and was making the rounds at Harrenhal.

That is possible.

He may not believe it's Ned because Ned has otherwise proven to be honorable and decent - except for allegedly fathering Jon (at least Ned took responsibility for his alleged bastard). ...Even if he resented Ned "dishonoring" Ashara, he thought that what was done to Ned was an injustice.

Do you see the inconsistency in your own words there? Barristan thinks Ned is Decent and Honourable except when he isn't? Sorry, that doesn't wash.

Barristan was on good terms with Ned right through AGoT when nothing had been done to Ned except be given the honour of being Hand of the King.

I think it's possible that Ashara Dayne's baby daughter wasn't really stillborn but was the baby switched with Aegon (assuming that really is Aegon). Babies don't look like boys or girls particularly and if she was dressed as "Rhaegar's son" people would see "Rhaegar's son" because they wouldn't expect a replacement. And who was going to look under the diaper to confirm the baby's sex when confronted with "the red ruin" of his head.

Its possible, timeline calculations permitting. It just isn't necessary or valuable, therefore important or interesting.

Yes, I exaggerate. But it seems to me a big lynchpin of the Brandon/Ashara contingent is that Brandon was the big ladies man that Ned was not, and therefore more likely to land Ashara and get her pregant. There were people upthread arguing that Brandon was reckless with women and had no qualms about deflowering highborn ladies.

Not a big lynchpin, but an additional detail, And you are getting the arguments wrong, accidentally I think rather than strawman-ing. Brandon was reckless in general (wild wolf, more wolf blood than Lyanna, reaction to Lyanna's 'abduction'). That does not equate to reckless with women specifically. Brandon was known to not be above deflowering young noblewomen (Lady Dustin) and then discarding them. There can't be much argument about that, but it does not equate to him humping everything that moves like Robert, as some have connected.

Also, I argued in the other thread that Brandon might have been a bit of a jerk, but it takes a BIG, BIG time jerk to set your little brother up with his crush and then nail her yourself - which is what he would have had to do according to the KotLT story. AND he would have had to do so while engaged to another woman. My point is that we don't really know Brandon was that kind of guy AT ALL.

And if you paid attention that argument has been repeatedly shot down. There are several perfectly good explanations of B+A at Harrenhal that do not have Brandon being a Jerk by setting up little brother with his crush and then nailing her himself instead.

They include:

- Brandon actually got there first and Ashara was already 'his' when he was a nice brother and asked her to dance with his shy little bro - Ned may or may not have had a crush on her (could possibly just be generally shy, something he gets over later as a Lord and commander) but it makes no difference if she was Brandon's girl first.

- Brandon asked her to dance with Ned and Ned made a play but was shot down, then Brandon moved in afterward. Its not that nice, but its not nearly as douchey as nailing her when little bro still has a hope.

- Ashara made the play - she's from Dorne remember, and Brandon is older, stronger, more handsome and more fun, not to mention more eligible. Not exactly Brandon's fault then is it, although its still not that nice.

But Brandon is the heir, "everything was always for (him)" thinks Ned bitterly.

I just think the Brandon/Ashara argument is an awful lot of speculation based presumed personalities of those involved and a couple of wiggle words in the Barristan POV - no actual fact.

Well, no one is arguing that Ashara was not dishonoured by a Stark at Harrenahl. And Benjen has been considered and dismissed (for the most part) and Lyanna... lacks the equipment. :laugh:

The only evidence that supports Ned over Brandon is post war rumour from people who were not present. And we have good physical evidence that supports that rumour being naturally created but not being real - evidence which is unrelated (directly) to Harrenhal.

The only actual evidence for Ned supports Brandon equally. Brandon asked Asharra to dance with shy Ned. Who is first contact with Ashara? Brandon. Who's suggestion is Ashara following? Brandon. Who is not shy? Brandon. The only reason we read all of that as Ned initially is the rumours.

So the physical evidence is maybe tilted slightly toward Brandon, but lets say 50-50.

The Character evidence is 100% supporting Brandon and includes characterisation and actions of 5 separate involved people, many of them direct references to these type of circumstances.

The rumour evidence is 100% supporting Ned. But we all know how good rumour is and we can see exactly how this rumour starts irrelevant of what happened at Harrenhal.

I don't think Ashara would have under normal circumstances been allowed to marry Ned. What were his options really? To run a small keep in the North or be a household soldier for his brother? Not exactly a promising prospect for the daughter of pretty big noble house.

Why not? She is in exactly the same situation as he is. A minor daughter of a noble house. Her house is storied and Noble, high in favour currently. His House is storied and noble, higher in power generally. Its a good match, for all that she is dancing with better matches at Harrenhal.

She may have tried/aimed for higher (or just been having a good time), but I can't see anything significantly different in their situations that would prevent a marriage.

I haven't really bought into the idea that Septa Lemore is Ashara. I know a lot of people like the idea, but I haven't seen enough evidence. I suppose she could know Jon's true parentage or be a long lost lover interest for Barristan, but I don't really see what she would add to the story.

8 separate connections not enough evidence for you?

Heck, even counting the rumour 3 separate times, and the suicide timing (probably fake and multiple other reasons) N+A=item still only has 6 pieces of evidence (and the other two equally support Brandon). :huh:

Respect and admiration are different things. I think Barristan could have been angry at Ned for dishonoring Ashara, but respected him for being honorable and dutiful. Especially if Ned had originally hoped and planned to marry Ashara.

You will excuse me for finding your statement inconsistent. :P

Same deal for Arhtur Dayne. I'm sure he would have also regretted killing the young man that he knew his sister loved.

Even though he dishonoured her and was now married elsewhere, so her love was in effect totally rejected?

<angry thought voice>Hey look, its that %$#@^% who ruined my sister, then dumped her <switch to sweet gooey thought voice> but she loves him, ohhh

<switch to sad thought voice> now I have to kill him, sniff

I don't buy it.

I know we learn a lot about Brandon in ADWD, albeit from a somewhat biased source. I'm just having a hard time believing that even being the "Wild Wolf," that he would sleep with the one girl that he knew his little brother loved.

This has been answered before, and again above. But no one bothers to read anything that counters their pet theories it seems, since they keep bringing up the exact same things that have been repeatedly dealt with.

I don't think your "Barristan 'chicks dig fiery guys'" assumption is necessarily true or relevant.

Why not?

Barristan thinks its his experience - therefore, true or not, it matches what he has been involved with.

What experience do we know he has? Watching over Dany, and his own experience with Ashara. Possibly others (Joanna and Aerys? that is a new angle on that one, but stretching a bit), but those are what we know about.

Therefore it is 'true' (in that his experience matches this, whether really true or not) and relevant in that his limited experience with chicks involves Ashara at Harrenhal.

You'll have to do better than 'I don't want it to apply' (ie, actually give some reasons why it doesn't) when dismissing evidence like that.

[Selmy]

Why not? She is in exactly the same situation as he is. A minor daughter of a noble house. Her house is storied and Noble, high in favour currently. His House is storied and noble, higher in power generally. Its a good match, for all that she is dancing with better matches at Harrenhal.

She may have tried/aimed for higher (or just been having a good time), but I can't see anything significantly different in their situations that would prevent a marriage.

Her being a minor daughter doesn't matter. The Dayne's are a noble house, her brother is on the Kingsguard, she's at court. I'm not saying the match is impossible, but I would think that at a minimum her parents would be looking to marry her to at least the heir to some house.

8 separate connections not enough evidence for you?

Heck, even counting the rumour 3 separate times, and the suicide timing (probably fake and multiple other reasons) N+A=item still only has 6 pieces of evidence (and the other two equally support Brandon). :huh:

What are these connections? All I've heard are rather spurious things like that they (Lemore and Ashara) would be roughly the same age, or that they both had kids, etc.

You will excuse me for finding your statement inconsistent. :P

Even though he dishonoured her and was now married elsewhere, so her love was in effect totally rejected?

<angry thought voice>Hey look, its that %$#@^% who ruined my sister, then dumped her <switch to sweet gooey thought voice> but she loves him, ohhh

<switch to sad thought voice> now I have to kill him, sniff

I don't buy it.

I'm just saying I could see members of the Kingsguard understanding oaths and duties versus individual wants.

This has been answered before, and again above. But no one bothers to read anything that counters their pet theories it seems, since they keep bringing up the exact same things that have been repeatedly dealt with.

I've read the answers. I'm not trying to say anything definitive and I don't really have too many theories. I like to speculate as much as the next person but I freely admit I could be very very wrong. I'm not trying to say "Ned clearly slept with Ashara and there's no way Brandon was involved at all!!!!"

Why not?

Barristan thinks its his experience - therefore, true or not, it matches what he has been involved with.

What experience do we know he has? Watching over Dany, and his own experience with Ashara. Possibly others (Joanna and Aerys? that is a new angle on that one, but stretching a bit), but those are what we know about.

Therefore it is 'true' (in that his experience matches this, whether really true or not) and relevant in that his limited experience with chicks involves Ashara at Harrenhal.

I just think it's a really small sample size. Again, I'm not saying it isn't possible or Barristan isn't drawing conclusions or whatever, just saying that it's hardly definitive at this point.

[Wolf of the North]

I had a crackpot idea reading Barristan's quote. In the first sentence, Selmy thinks Ashara could have possibly committed suicide due to grief for the man who dishonored her. In a later sentence, he says Ashara "turns to Stark" instead of him. The way the quote reads, there is a possibility that the man who "dishonors" her is not neccessarily Stark; ie she is "turning to" someone after being dishonored by Person A. In other words, Ashara is dishonored by someone and is shamed by this "dishonor" and "turns to Stark". Lets think about what this premise has working for it and against it:

While the actual phrase he uses is "looked to Stark" rather than "turned to Stark" (the latter of which would be more in support of the dishonorer not being the Stark in question), I agree, it's definitely a possible interpretation.

Who dishonored her then if not Ned or Brandon? It would have to be someone recently dead that Ned had knowledge of, someone who would dishonor her and yet whom she thought enough of to grieve for and bonus points given to those suitors with "more fire than mud" (or however Selmy described Dany and her attraction to Darrio). The only candidate that springs to mind is Rhaeger. He is eager to fulfill his prophecy, Ashara is close at hand and Darry lineage has First Men blood which is again the "Ice" part of "Fire and Ice". Of coarse Rhaeger fancies Lyanna but he only meets her in Harrenhal by chance (in other words he gets Ashara pregnant in service of the prophecy as Rhaeger is as clumsy servicing the prophecy as everyone else). I would not consider Rhaeger fiery, more the mud type, but then again Fire and Blood is the Targ motto and Ashara would feel rightly scorned to be Elia's surrogate baby maker one moment and then unexpectantly thrown off for Lyanna suddenly.

The timeline makes that unlikely. Since Aegon is about a year old at the time of the Sack of King's Landing, and since Elia was nearly killed by his birth, her attendance at the Harrenhal tournament means she is either not pregnant with Aegon yet, or not very far along in her pregnancy. Therefore, at the time of the tournament and Ashara's "dishonoring," Rhaegar has no reason yet to be seeking another woman to give him the child that will be the third head of the dragon. The scene Dany saw in the House of the Undying hasn't happened yet, nor has he been told that Elia will not have any more children. He has no reason to look elsewhere until after Aegon's birth.

[bowlwoman]

And his aunt Allyria was likely not yet born or a young child when the relevant events occured.

Crackpot theory: Allyria is Ashara's baby with Brandon. We don't know for sure how old Allyria is, but she was betrothed to Ser Beric, and he was 23 at the start of the series. I can't imagine she'd be older than he was, and it's more likely she was around 17 or 18. So, if instead of having a stillborn daughter, Ashara had a live daughter--Allyria--and left her with her own parents to raise as their own child. I know surprise babies happen, with a younger sibling far younger than their older brothers and sisters, but then again, some of those "younger siblings" find out as adults that they're actually an illegitimate child of an older daughter that the mother/grandmother raised as her own to avoid a scandal. Anyway, no real concrete proof other than speculation on Allyria's age and having major hints in the novels that some nobles raised children they claimed were theirs but weren't really (Jon/Ned, possibly Tyrion/Tywin, Joff, Myrcella, Tommen/Robert, etc.)

[corbon]

What are these connections? All I've heard are rather spurious things like that they (Lemore and Ashara) would be roughly the same age, or that they both had kids, etc.

Among others, see the Septa Lemore thread, post #143 (+ the additional clue that Lemore remarks that Connington is not the only one needing to keep 'hidden' at one stage, clearly refering to herself and being in disguise.

Yes, many of them are small connections, but they add up. They also cover just about every piece of information we have about Lemore.

And nearly all of them are the equivalent of direct physical evidence, as opposed to rumour or hearsay.

It isn't guaranteed by any means, but you can hardly argue there isn't much evidence.

I've read the answers. I'm not trying to say anything definitive and I don't really have too many theories. I like to speculate as much as the next person but I freely admit I could be very very wrong. I'm not trying to say "Ned clearly slept with Ashara and there's no way Brandon was involved at all!!!!"

That's fine.

But when you say "I have a pretty hard time believing X because of Y" and Y has been thoroughly shown not to be a requirement of X already, you weaken your case perhaps more than it might deserve.

I just think it's a really small sample size. Again, I'm not saying it isn't possible or Barristan isn't drawing conclusions or whatever, just saying that it's hardly definitive at this point.

"Really small sample size" is not relevant though. Barristan doesn't have to be 'generally right' about his theory. The point is that his theory is founded on his experience so that means that all the data points within his experience, will conform to his theory even if his theory is wrong.

Ashara is a data point in his experience. Therefore Ashara conforms to his theory, whether his theory is right or wrong.

Therefore, Ashara chose fire over mud.

That's probably stronger than Barristan's actual dealings with Ned, since he might be capable of controlling or compartmentalising his feelings, but he won't do that when forming a theory based on his experience. And this part is about Ashara, not Ned directly.

[BladeDancer]

Why would Allyria Dayne lie to her Nephew and categorically state that Ned Stark and her sister were in love? If Allytia did not know that Ned and Ashara fell in love, then why would she make this shit up and tell Edric about it? She would have no reason to do so. It seems to be clutching at straws to claim that she got the entire story wrong. It is much MORE plausible that Selmy was referring to Ned when he called him Stark, in the EXACT same way that Cersei referred to Ned as simply Stark in her POV Chapters.

Why would Ned Stark feel certain that he could travel through enemy territory (Dorne) and receive help at Starfall? It is because he had a very good relationship with the Daynes. This does not mean he danced with them once at a Tournament years before and his brother then shagged Ashara. This journey clearly indicates that Ned expected safety and help at Starfell. If there was doubt then Ned would NEVER have risked the journey as he had the young Jon Snow with him. If Ned has had a relationship with Ashara then this completely explains why he felt safe to bring Jon Snow there. There is no way he would go to a Castle in enemy territory and then tell the ruling House that he had just killed their most famous member - unless he was confident of a safe reception.

Brandon and Ashara fooling around makes that completely unlikely and so Ned's trip to Starfall can be considered a contradiction to the Brandon/Ashara theory.

Not once does Selmy refer to Ned Stark as Ned Stark or Eddard Stark or Lord Stark in his internal POV.. So it is entirely plausible and acceptable that Selmy was referring to Ned in his POV. as simply Stark (and by Selmy I mean Barristan Selmy, not his Dad or his Brother or the Head of House Selmy). Cersei refers to Ned at times as simply Stark as well. Do followers of this new Brandon and Ashara theory also think that Cersei was referring to Brandon when she thinks of Stark?

As for those who want a reason why Ned and Ashara would sleep together and then not marry, simple. Rickard Stark said no. In ADWD it is made clear that Rickard was ambitious and wanted his children to marry into powerful House for alliance purposes. We know for a fact that Brandon was not allowed to marry the woman who would become Lady Dustin despite his feelings for her. Lord Rickards said no, Brandon had to marry into House Tully. Similarly Lyanna had to marry into House Baratheon. It seems extremely likely that Rickard also wanted to decide who Ned and Benjen married as well. It is doubtful that Dayne was regarded as important enough for Lord Rickard considering that he was a Stark and was forging alliances with Houses such as Tully and Baratheon.

Lady Dustin's story about Brandon only reveals that Brandon was a bit hot-headed, so might have jumped the gun a bit when he heard of Lyanna running off with Rhaegar. Also it demonstrates quite explicitly that Rickard controlled who his children married and it would be for political reasons rather than for love. Brandon having a relationship with Lady Dustin does NOT mean he f@cked every woman he met. All it means is that he had a relationship with Lady Dustin that his Father ended. Brandon having a girlfriend seems to have been extrapolated by some into painting him into a complete bastard and potential rapist! Talk about clutching at straws.

Selmy's POV or actions in this novel has given no indication that he even knew about the Tower of Joy. Readers have no idea if Selmy knows where or how Arthur Dayne died. How would he even know the reasons for Ashara's suicide? He was not at Starfall. Does he even know Ned Stark was there at all?

There is NO evidence that Brandon had a thing with Ashara. We do have a direct testimony from Allyria Dayne and other numerous rumours that Ned and Ashara had a fling. Some posters are claiming that Allyria may not have been alive or very old when Harrenhal tournament occured. However it is equally plausible that Allyria Dayne was alive, old enough to understand and was actually present at the tournament too.

If Ned Stark did not have a close relationship with Ashara then why would he risk going to Starfall? Why would Allyria lie to her Nephew about the love affair? Why would Ashara commit suicide upon learning of Ned's actions at Tower of Joy?

Ned not having many thoughts of Ashara in his POV is NOT evidence against an affair. It is merely Martin trying to hide plot details from the readers until the time is right to reveal it. Ned does not really reminisce about Jon Snow's Mother, the birth of his Children, his relationship with his own Mother either. Not thinking about his own mother once in GOT does not mean that he did not love his mother!

[Ygritte]

Ned not having many thoughts of Ashara in his POV is NOT evidence against an affair. It is merely Martin trying to hide plot details from the readers until the time is right to reveal it. Ned does not really reminisce about Jon Snow's Mother, the birth of his Children, his relationship with his own Mother either. Not thinking about his own mother once in GOT does not mean that he did not love his mother!

Well, I think he reminisces about Jon Snow's mother quite a bit. More than pretty much anything else, really. ;)