[ADWD spoiler] The Varys Thread

[The Greatmatt]

So at the ending epilogue of ADWD, Varys kills Kevan Lannister and basically tells him that he needs the realm to be in chaos so that Jon Connington and Prince Aegon can gain the throne.

So that means that Varys is Pro-Targ right?

But if that's the case then why did Varys support the assassination of Dany under Robert B. and his council back in AGOT?

The attempted assassination of Dany was witnessed firsthand during Dany's POV and we know that Ser Jorah spoiled the attempt because he knew firsthand of it; so we can safely say that the assassin was sent by Robert B. and council. (including Varys)

But then what's the point of Varys being on the side of murdering Dany if he is pro-Targ? I understand that at that point Dany did not have the dragons, but she was married to Khal Drogo and she was the glue that was supposed to bind Drogo and his Khal/Army to Viserys, so murdering her would've lost Viserys his army.

Also, the Dothraki army storming Westeros under Targ banners was Illyrio's idea (And therefore, Varys' as well, no?) So where's the sense in destroying the most important cog in your own masterplan?

I doesn't make any sense. Or am I missing something?

The more I think about what Varys said to Kevan, the more stock I'm putting in it.

Basically: He's not pro-Targ, he's pro-ruler-who-doesn't-think-he's entitled. Absconding with Aegon (or creating a fake Aegon) allows him to have great control over how that child is raised.

Now, can he really be that noble? Seems too good to be true, but the way he lives makes it plausible. Completely Spartan lifestyle, and even when it's death for him to stay in KL, he stays rather than go to Pentos and live the life of luxury.

How exactly the Children fit into this though, I'm not sure.

[salmonprotocol34]

haven't been able to read the whole thread, but just an idea: there was no realm before the targaryens came to power, so maybe in the eyes of someone like varys, serving the realm is synonymous with serving the targaryen dynasty because the realm is the property of the targaryens without whom it would still be separate kingdoms

[salmonprotocol34]

the things i'm not understanding about varys:

1) why advise aerys to allow tywin lannister's army into king's landing?

- because rhaegar lost on the trident and he lost his best hope at a stable monarchy for the time being (rhaegar)?

2) why try and kill danerys?

- would she have been competition to Aegon? would danerys have been able to tell is Aegon was an imposter?

to me the attempt to kill dany is probably evidence that varys wants to protect the lie that is prince aegon

[Lord Godric]

to me the attempt to kill dany is probably evidence that varys wants to protect the lie that is prince aegon

But didn't Varys also plan to have Aegon marry Dany? It was only when Tyrion suggested going to Westeros instead of finding Dany that the idea was planted into Griff's mind. If Varys was worried that Dany would be able to tell that Aegon was a fake, why bother to send them all to find Dany?

No, I think Varys just had no choice but to go along with the assassination attempt of Dany. If he outwardly refused, like Ned did, he would have felt Robert's wrath and probably been outed for the Targaryen loyalist that he seems to be. I think Varys went ahead with the plan to assassinate Dany knowing that it would fail, but also because he could not refuse.

[chrisdaw]

But didn't Varys also plan to have Aegon marry Dany? It was only when Tyrion suggested going to Westeros instead of finding Dany that the idea was planted into Griff's mind. If Varys was worried that Dany would be able to tell that Aegon was a fake, why bother to send them all to find Dany?

No, I think Varys just had no choice but to go along with the assassination attempt of Dany. If he outwardly refused, like Ned did, he would have felt Robert's wrath and probably been outed for the Targaryen loyalist that he seems to be. I think Varys went ahead with the plan to assassinate Dany knowing that it would fail, but also because he could not refuse.

This doesn't make sense on multiple fronts. If Varys always intended Dany for Aegon why would he go along with having her marry Drogo? Why would he even convey the information of her marriage and pregnancy to the Council? Why would he even bother setting up an assassination attempt which wasn't meant to succeed when all the news KL had of Dany came from him anyway? He could just as well as said it happened rather than risk it actually really happening.

It makes much more sense that Varys altered his plan when Dany didn't die and instead hatched Dragons and created an army.

The situation he finds himself in (before he learns of her marriage at Mereen) is that Dany lives and has full intention of travelling to Westeros with Dragons and a proven army. Vary's intention is to seat Aegon on the throne, so what does he do about Dany? A marriage between the two is quite clearly a good solution. Whereas he probably intended Aegon for Arianne to add Dorne's forces to the Golden Company, he now directs Aegon to Mereen to marry Dany to combine forces, essentially gaining from her strength and removing her as a potential hurdle.

I don't think Varys had a master plan for Viserys and Dany beyond their immediate worth to him. Knowledge of their actions kept him in good stead among the court at KL and their existence kept Dorne from open war. I do believe he fully intended the assassination plan to succeed and it was a matter of Jorah falling for Dany and betraying him that caused it to fail (as is a firm possibility in the books and the only real possibility portrayed in the show). I don't think he was particularly invested in the assassination attempt succeeding, but at the same time I don't see any evidence that he arranged for it to fail.

[Black Crow]

I've been thinking about this one for a while, read through the merged threads and still come to the same conclusion.

Jon, up on the Wall silences Bowen Marsh by reminding him that the ultimate purpose of the Watch is to defend the realms of men.

When Varys speaks of the realm is he talking about one of the realms of men, ie; Westeros, or is he talking about the Elfin (Others/White Walkers) realm?

Cold is significant and the point is that Varys is destablising Westeros (and beyond) ahead of Winter. Sure there have been winters before but this is predicted as the Long Winter and we know that the White Walkers are moving in strength for the first time in thousands of years.

Think big, its an epic series and Varys as always is emphasising his insignificance.

[RAAM]

i never trusted varys, but working for the Others?i dont know, i always imagined that it was varys vs. LF in the game, with the others screwing up all their plans with their invasion, of course, new plans would emerge immediately

i always thought that, like LF, he wasnt aware of any other invasion and has been playing the game to put a controllable king on the iron throne

[Fishy]

It makes much more sense that Varys altered his plan when Dany didn't die and instead hatched Dragons and created an army.

The situation he finds himself in (before he learns of her marriage at Mereen) is that Dany lives and has full intention of travelling to Westeros with Dragons and a proven army. Vary's intention is to seat Aegon on the throne, so what does he do about Dany? A marriage between the two is quite clearly a good solution. Whereas he probably intended Aegon for Arianne to add Dorne's forces to the Golden Company, he now directs Aegon to Mereen to marry Dany to combine forces, essentially gaining from her strength and removing her as a potential hurdle.

I don't think Varys had a master plan for Viserys and Dany beyond their immediate worth to him. Knowledge of their actions kept him in good stead among the court at KL and their existence kept Dorne from open war. I do believe he fully intended the assassination plan to succeed and it was a matter of Jorah falling for Dany and betraying him that caused it to fail (as is a firm possibility in the books and the only real possibility portrayed in the show). I don't think he was particularly invested in the assassination attempt succeeding, but at the same time I don't see any evidence that he arranged for it to fail.

Two possibilities here

1 - Varys warned Jorah of the establisehd plot to kill Dany. Which would explain why Jorah learned of it after going to read a few letters. In which case Varys likely hoped that she would remain alive.

2 - He did want her dead and hoped that such things would speed up a Dothraki invasion of Westeros.

I'm personally going with option 1. He hoped that his message would reach Jorah in time, that the assassination would be prevented, as he had no choice but to spread the word about the offer or else people would know about it. But should things go wrong, well then at least option 2 was still a possibility and that would be good for them.

[merchantkingpriest]

IIRC, Varys was whispering in the Mad King's ear about treacheries all the time and that he was a big reason why people got fried. Also isn't there something about the Mad King showing up at Harrenhal at the tourney of the false spring because Varys told him that Rhaegar was plotting against him? This seems like Varys went out of his way for the Targs to blow up at some point, then he is the only one telling Aerys to close the gates to Tywin which seems that he is loyal again. THEN he serves Robert and actually informs him about Daenerys and Viserys, THEN he starts working to get Aegon to conquer the realm, but Dany is still out there somewhere with Dragons and won't be too pleased when some "nephew" of hers is sitting in her chair. I don't think anyone at this point can say they actually understand Varys or his motives, unless the motive is pure chaos which I don't think it is.

[Fishy]

IIRC, Varys was whispering in the Mad King's ear about treacheries all the time and that he was a big reason why people got fried. Also isn't there something about the Mad King showing up at Harrenhal at the tourney of the false spring because Varys told him that Rhaegar was plotting against him? This seems like Varys went out of his way for the Targs to blow up at some point, then he is the only one telling Aerys to close the gates to Tywin which seems that he is loyal again. THEN he serves Robert and actually informs him about Daenerys and Viserys, THEN he starts working to get Aegon to conquer the realm, but Dany is still out there somewhere with Dragons and won't be too pleased when some "nephew" of hers is sitting in her chair. I don't think anyone at this point can say they actually understand Varys or his motives, unless the motive is pure chaos which I don't think it is.

Yet it still all makes sense (with the exception of possibly trying to make Aerys more paranoid, which we only have from second hand sources)

Serving Robert insures stability in the realm at least for a small while.

Informing Robert and the Small Council about Dany and Viserys is also required. They would find out anyway, best it come from him when he can direct at least somewhat the next steps.

Varys never worked on getting Aegon to Westeros, he worked on getting Aegon to Dany (and her dragons) and then getting the two of them to Westeros, and that just makes sense.

Once Aegon arrives however, he has no choice but to try and make the best ouf ot it.

That's probably the strength of Varys his plans, he constantly tries to make the best out of it. One way or another, he adopts when things change.

[chrisdaw]

Two possibilities here

1 - Varys warned Jorah of the establisehd plot to kill Dany. Which would explain why Jorah learned of it after going to read a few letters. In which case Varys likely hoped that she would remain alive.

2 - He did want her dead and hoped that such things would speed up a Dothraki invasion of Westeros.

I'm personally going with option 1. He hoped that his message would reach Jorah in time, that the assassination would be prevented, as he had no choice but to spread the word about the offer or else people would know about it. But should things go wrong, well then at least option 2 was still a possibility and that would be good for them.

Assuming the message was the same one Jorah went to collect before the assassination why would Varys leave it so late if he never wanted Dany dead? And there's option 3, he doesn't have a personal stake in Dany and he's just following orders.

IIRC, Varys was whispering in the Mad King's ear about treacheries all the time and that he was a big reason why people got fried. Also isn't there something about the Mad King showing up at Harrenhal at the tourney of the false spring because Varys told him that Rhaegar was plotting against him? This seems like Varys went out of his way for the Targs to blow up at some point, then he is the only one telling Aerys to close the gates to Tywin which seems that he is loyal again. THEN he serves Robert and actually informs him about Daenerys and Viserys, THEN he starts working to get Aegon to conquer the realm, but Dany is still out there somewhere with Dragons and won't be too pleased when some "nephew" of hers is sitting in her chair. I don't think anyone at this point can say they actually understand Varys or his motives, unless the motive is pure chaos which I don't think it is.

It could be a simple case of Varys working to bring down Aerys because he knows he's bad for the realm, only Rhaegar was the intended heir, and when Rhaegar dies he goes into scramble mode and starts formulating a plan B, Aegon.

[LionelHutz]

Yet it still all makes sense (with the exception of possibly trying to make Aerys more paranoid, which we only have from second hand sources)

Serving Robert insures stability in the realm at least for a small while.

Informing Robert and the Small Council about Dany and Viserys is also required. They would find out anyway, best it come from him when he can direct at least somewhat the next steps.

Varys never worked on getting Aegon to Westeros, he worked on getting Aegon to Dany (and her dragons) and then getting the two of them to Westeros, and that just makes sense.

Once Aegon arrives however, he has no choice but to try and make the best ouf ot it.

That's probably the strength of Varys his plans, he constantly tries to make the best out of it. One way or another, he adopts when things change.

I think this is a good point. Varys's plans look like they create chaos, but they all advance a single agenda. He wants a crazy King gone, a weak placeholder, then a King made with what he desires in a ruler to be installed. And the kicker is: he probably realizes that due to the ever looming threat of the Others, it's probably a good thing for a house that can command Dragons to be in charge of Westeros.

[The Greatmatt]

the things i'm not understanding about varys:

1) why advise aerys to allow tywin lannister's army into king's landing?

- because rhaegar lost on the trident and he lost his best hope at a stable monarchy for the time being (rhaegar)?

2) why try and kill danerys?

- would she have been competition to Aegon? would danerys have been able to tell is Aegon was an imposter?

to me the attempt to kill dany is probably evidence that varys wants to protect the lie that is prince aegon

1) Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Varys advice Aerys NOT to allow the Lannister army in? It was Pycelle who convinced him otherwise.

2) Well at least on the surface, I'd say this is Varys realize what he can and cannot do in official capacity as part of the Small Council. Any action Varys takes that's not in keeping with being the omniscient loyal advisor to the King puts his person in danger. The smart play thus is to actually do all the things the King would want with one hand, and work to undermine them with the other.

[History of Westeros]

But the evidence suggests that he fed Aerys' paranoia and made him worse, and we never see any reason to believe that the idea was to replace him with Rhaegar (instead, Varys was a big part in the downfall of the Targaryen monarchy). If he's really a Targaryen loyalist, his actions re: Aerys failed disastrously.

There isn't actually any *evidence* that Varys helped bring down Aerys. That's all assumption by on-screen characters, and it doesn't really make sense.

What we know for certain is that Aerys *gradually* went insane. He was not born mad. So given that he was gradually going insane, it seems pretty likely he'd have gotten there with or without help. It seems strange to credit Varys for something that was already happening. Many of the characters have assumed Varys had something to do with it, but personally I do not, and I see little reason for others to do so.

We also know that he was adamant that Aerys not let Tywin into KL just before Tywin did the sacking. If he wanted Aerys out, seems like he would've been on the "let Tywin in" side.

[chrisdaw]

Yeah that's a good post, and I think it'll be the whole point, characters will always assume the worst of Varys, fear him and look down on him, yet all the while he's the only one playing for the good of the realm.

[KhalRhaego]

Does anybody know if the description of the dragon eggs that Dany had match the description of Aegon’s egg or the wedding tournament egg from the Dunk and Egg tales? Ilyrio got the eggs from somewhere and I'm guessing it was from Varys. Varys says he lost his manhood to magic. Aegon apparently destroyed Summerhall in an attempt to wake the eggs. My crackpot theory is that Varys is Targaryen (or maybe is a bastard and has some Targaryen blood) and some crackpot sorcerer decided that the blood of the dragon could be used to wake the eggs and Varys lost his penis as a sacrifice. I don’t know the timeline or Varys age well enough to say if he was at Summerhall. Someone prove me wrong so I don't hafta look into it.

[KhalRhaego]

Okay, I looked into it myself. Aegon says that the last dragon left a clutch of 5 eggs and that he and his brothers all had one.

• Daeron- no description of egg
  
• Aerion-gold and silver with veins of fire running through it
  
• Aemon- no description of egg
  
• Aegon- white and green, all swirly
  

Also, Lord Butterwell had an egg (which may or may not have just been a painted rock), but it was described as having fine red scales, blood and flame, but with gold flecks as well and whorls of midnight black.

Dany had three eggs:

1. Deep green with burnished bronze flecks that came and went depending upon how Dany turned it
   
2. Pale cream streaked with gold
   
3. Black as a midnight sea yet alive with scarlett ripples and swirls
   

I think it's possible that Dany had Aegon's, Lord Butterwell's and maybe Maester Aemon's egg as well if he gave it to Aegon when he took the black.

Also, the Targaryen chart below (I don't know where they got the info) says that Aegon had another son as well. Could this have been Varys? It would make him the Mad King Aerys's uncle. Is he old enough for that?

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Template:Targaryen_tree_now

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Template:Targaryen_tree_now

[KhalRhaego]

Okay, apparently the Tragedy at Summerhall was in 259. Eddard Stark was born in 263. If Varys were maybe 6 years old at Summerhall, that would make him 10 years older than Ned which seems plausible.

(I'm gonna stop replying to myself now.)

[Fishy]

Assuming the message was the same one Jorah went to collect before the assassination why would Varys leave it so late if he never wanted Dany dead? And there's option 3, he doesn't have a personal stake in Dany and he's just following orders.

The time frame however would fit. The assassination order had not been given long ago, Jorah picked up letters returned quickly and all of a sudden suspected a wine merchant of trying to kill his Queen. It seems, at least to me, unlikely that he would have had any other source of learning about what was going on. Also option three seems unlikely. He obviously planned for Viserys and Dany to have a role in the future. If she would have died I don't think it mattered that much, but I believe he would rather have her alive.

1) Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Varys advice Aerys NOT to allow the Lannister army in? It was Pycelle who convinced him otherwise.

Correct. Jaime even says it's the only time Aerys should have listened to Varys but instead he listened to Pycelle. But that does raise an interesting point, obviously Varys had a reason for wanting Aerys to remain alive. Whether that was actually for Aerys sake or because he wanted to ship of Aegon to Dragonstone before the city fell, I couldn't tell you.

[chrisdaw]

The question is why would Varys send a letter so late to Jorah if he never intended Dany to die? What if they went to the wine seller before he went to collect the letters? And why is it obvious Varys had future plans for Dany and Viserys? Having them in his hands kept Dorne from open war and provided him worth at Council, what is there to indicate he has any stake in them beyond that before Dany hatches Dragons?