[ ADwD Spoilers ] Jon Connington and Young Griff

[Lord Godric]

It just hasn't come to play yet. I can already picture her immediately assuming Aegon is the mummer's dragon.

But that isn't exactly self-fulfilling is it? It is not like Dany is in Mereen doing her best to stop a mummer's dragon from appearing and then that ends up causing the appearance of the real mummer's dragon. Dany stumbling upon Aegon and then assuming he is the one spoken of in the House of the Undying isn't self-fulfilling. It just is prophecy come to pass.

[variance]

But that isn't exactly self-fulfilling is it? It is not like Dany is in Mereen doing her best to stop a mummer's dragon from appearing and then that ends up causing the appearance of the real mummer's dragon. Dany stumbling upon Aegon and then assuming he is the one spoken of in the House of the Undying isn't self-fulfilling. It just is prophecy come to pass.

You are assuming he is the mummer's dragon.

[Lord Godric]

You are assuming he is the mummer's dragon.

You are correct. But even if he is not (which I have to admit I don't find that likely. If he is not the mummer's dragon who is? Is there another "secret" Targaryen to be revealed in the final book?) The prophecy describes Dany as the slayer of lies and gives the examples of the blue-eyed man, the mummer's dragon and the stone dragon. So if the prophecy is self-fulfilling that would only mean that Dany will always slay the lie of the mummer's dragon, no matter how hard she tried to prevent the prophecy. The prophecy does not just state that the mummer's dragon exists or is a threat to her, but that she will expose the lie.

I'm not sure if I am being clear as it is rather late and I'm rather tired.

[dunbarbw]

The comparison with Dany is strange. First, she didn't go her whole life thinking she'd rule. It was to be Viserys. She was just the pawn who would buy him an army for his kingdom. There is no position humbler than having no control over your own destiny. Having to stand there as your brother twists your nipples and pervs on you. She was a meek and timid girl, which is not the personality that I would want for Griff, but arrogant it is not. Second, she was literally sold and raped and had to learn and work her way to owning her power. Now in this last book she has seen her endeavors crumbling and as she says, her joy has turned to ashes. That's being humbled, and she already started off pretty low which is why she empathizes with others who are low. Same with Jon Snow, which is why he was displaying good leadership qualities from the moment he reached The Wall, and why he was chosen to be groomed as a future Lord Commander. So I want Griff to learn humility as well.

Did we read the same books? Because Dany had always dont the whole "I'm Daenerys fucking Targaryen" bit.

And if by "Jon Snow was displaying good leadership qualities" you mean "Jon Snow was ignoring everything his chief officers said no matter how much it made sense" then yeah. Jon as Lord Commander was a boss.

[theladyinspring]

"Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. Mother of Dragons...slayer of lies..."

To me, this whole section is referring to something to do with Melisandre/Rh'llor/Stannis. It's that part of the story because at least two of the three elements are associated with them. On the other hand, Young Griff's first attempt at battle is going to be an attack on Storm's End and that's the home of the Baratheons. I'm almost sure he will succeed (only worried a bit about his potential for cowardice)...so he very well might fit right in with the blue-eyed king and the stone beast. I can definitely see crowds cheering him.

He's very princely. Wants to lead the battle. Refuses to be "biddable". Very knowledgable and learned yet not afraid of action. I think the people will welcome him because he seems perfect and he's going to be presented as a Targaryen. Much better prospect than Stannis or Tommen or the Ironmen. The Westerosi are going to fricking love him.

[theladyinspring]

Did we read the same books? Because Dany had always dont the whole "I'm Daenerys fucking Targaryen" bit.

And if by "Jon Snow was displaying good leadership qualities" you mean "Jon Snow was ignoring everything his chief officers said no matter how much it made sense" then yeah. Jon as Lord Commander was a boss.

I didn't say anything about whether or not Jon was a good Lord Commander or whether or not Dany was a good queen or khaleesi (at this point I'd say neither of them did a bangup job, he did a slightly better one). I consider humility and compassion to be essential for good leadership, but you need more. I see zero evidence of humility in Young Griff to go along with his high opinion of himself (which is NATURAL, as a prince of course he is arrogant, but there needs to be a balance). I'm not dissing your precious manly boy prince. I think Jon Snow pretty much failed as Lord Commander because he didn't get people to truly follow him which is what leading is all about, nor was he cognizant of the mutiny, but he OBVIOUSLY displayed leadership qualities because that's why he was made steward to Mormont. And that's why when the first opportunity came to choose a Lord Commander after Mormont died, Jon won in a freaking landslide. That's a straight reading from the text it is not my interpretation. He defended those weaker than himself and tried to teach them to be better men. That's grace, humility, and it inspires loyalty (he then foolishly sent away all his friends, the first of many mistakes he made in ADWD). That stemmed from his background as a bastard and also following in the footsteps of Ned Stark (another person who had arrogance AND humility, e.g. his empathy for Cersei). You're right, he was also pigheaded sometimes and tried to force his ideas on people.

Dany is definitely arrogant, but she also has humility and empathy. That's why I like her. Why do you think people follow her and love her? I know, they're all "mad" like she is, whatever. By the way, if your boy prince really is a Targaryen then he's crazy just like y'all think Dany is. Joke will be on you if you get all excited about him now, so I'd exercise some caution. GRRM delights in nothing more than toppling the high and mighty. That's all I was saying I expected to happen with His Magnificence Young Griff. It clearly hasn't happened yet, but it will.

[Markus]

Don't you remember the first interactions between Jon and Tyrion? Tyrion likes to provoke people, it's a way he tests them - he provokes Jon and ends up being thrown in the mud, he deceives Aegon in the game, which of course frustrates Aegon, but he listens to Tyrion as his actions later shows up.

When Tyrion ended up in the mud after he had provoked Jon it wasn't Jon who did it though. It was Ghost who seems to have picked up on Jon's anger. Afterwards Jon also helped Tyrion up again.

As for Aegon listening to Tyrion, it remains to be seen if this was wise. Will 10k men survive long enough to be rescued by Dany in time? Will Dany truly think of Aegon as an equal when she has to save him from a reckless scheme? Won't Dany have the opportunity to make other alliances and a marriage as long as she doesn't learn of and meets Aegon?

It may be "Aegon" with the better claim but it's Dany who has the true game changers, the dragons. As long as this is true it will be her who calls the shots. And perhaps YG should have listened to something else Tyrion said: "Keep your dragon close". At the moment Aegon is far, far away from any dragons who could protect him because he listened to Tyrion ... just as he lost at Cyvasse because he didn't keep his dragon close to save him because he listened to Tyrion.

[Maester Luwin]

Wow so some ppl think Young Giff is not Aegon.

Pretty sure he is.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

The main reason I think Aegon isn't really Aegon is because if he was, then Illyrio and Varys have very little reason to even bother with Viserys/Daenerys. It seems to me like Viserys/Daenerys were Illyrio/Varys' plan A and "Aegon" was the backup. If Aegon were really Aegon, then he should be plan A, not Vis/Dany.

[variance]

The main reason I think Aegon isn't really Aegon is because if he was, then Illyrio and Varys have very little reason to even bother with Viserys/Daenerys. It seems to me like Viserys/Daenerys were Illyrio/Varys' plan A and "Aegon" was the backup. If Aegon were really Aegon, then he should be plan A, not Vis/Dany.

Viserys/Daenerys were a great distraction while the real Aegon grew up and was prepared for the throne.

[Dubbilex]

It specifically said that Aegon lived among the low born to allow him to have sympathy for them and that he knows what it likes to have dirt on his hands.

That was the intent, yes. Whether or not it was effective is a different matter. Aegon seemed fairly humble in the beginning of the book, but by the end, when he's shed his disguise, you could make the argument that he's being rather demanding and authoritarian. He adamantly refuses the advice of the much more experienced Jon Connington.

He also plans on leading the battle for Storm's End.

But out of selflessness or out of a need for glory? That's the big question.

Dany lived a sheltered life until she married as queen of the Dothraki. She was a timid girl, until she lived among barbarians that rape and pillage villages. She has no clue what it is like to be a peasant or have dirt on her hands. She went from a pampered girl to a pampered queen that rides horses.

No one who was basically sold a bed slave by her brother can be considered pampered. Plus, it was mentioned that for a time after leaving the house with the red, the various rulers of the Free Cities were delighted to provide her and Viserys with shelter, but only for a time. That support had dried up over the years as Robert continued to sit the Iron Throne. It was then that Viserys became the Beggar King. It wasn't until they met Illyrio that they returned to a life of luxury. Dany's no stranger to harsh life.

[tipopellet]

It could be that baby swapping episode is true story but this Aegon still isn't a real Targ. What if the baby died on the way to Illirio? Would he and Varys simply say "Oops!" and give up or figure some scheme to continue with "Aegon lives" charade? All they need is a boy of the righbt coloring. And it's possible they had one - Illirio's son with his second wife.

[Maia]

I actually think that if Aegon is a fake, then it is Illyrio who did it, not Varys. Restoring a believed-dead heir would be difficult in any case, no need to complicate things even more by grooming a fake for decade and half. IMHO, Varys _did_ swap the baby - I always thought it strange that despite his demonstrated Targ sympathies and knowledge of disguise/secret passages, he didn't get Rhaegar's kids out. But maybe the boy died in Illyrio's care and Illyrio, loath to abandon the scheme, replaced him with a Valyrian child from Lys or Volantys, where they are a dime a dozen.

Nor do I think that it is Illyrio's son - Illyrio intended to come to Westeros, after all and any perceived similarity could be fatal to Aegon's claim, not to mention that Griff may have noticed it too. No way to predict how the child's appearance turns out as it matures, after all.

Neither do I think that Ashara's child could be in any way involved or she would have killed herself as soon as news of the Sack reached Starfall, which at raven speed, would have been weeks/months before Ned came calling.

Speaking of the cloth dragon from the vision - did anybody consider that it may have represented Dany when she lost her way? Didn't many so-called "heroes" try to fight her/her dragons?

[Sand Viper]

I've read that some of you do not think Young Griff is really Aegon. But if he isn't Aegon, why would Jon Connington be trying to put him on the Iron Throne so badly? Wouldn't he drop the charade once he heard a true Targeryen like Dany still existed and concentrate on getting her on the throne?

I strongly suspect that Young Griff is Rhaegar's son, but not the same son as baby Aegon. I suspect that YG is Rhaegar's son by Lyanna. So Jon Connington would quite happily help 'Aegon' and even participate in a deception that he is the same as baby Aegon. Jon may even believe that YG is the same as baby Aegon - it might only be Lemore who knows otherwise...

[Jon AS]

I always thought it strange that despite his demonstrated Targ sympathies and knowledge of disguise/secret passages, he didn't get Rhaegar's kids out.

What Targaryen sympathies has he demonstrated? If anything I'd that his failure to do anything for Elia and Rhaenys (and probably Aegon as well) indicates that his loyalties to the family are not that strong.

Speaking of the cloth dragon from the vision - did anybody consider that it may have represented Dany when she lost her way? Didn't many so-called "heroes" try to fight her/her dragons?

So Dany has to "slay the lie" of her decision of staying in Meereen? I really don't think that works out with the way the prophecies are structured.

[A Wolf of Winterfell]

You are correct. But even if he is not (which I have to admit I don't find that likely. If he is not the mummer's dragon who is? Is there another "secret" Targaryen to be revealed in the final book?) The prophecy describes Dany as the slayer of lies and gives the examples of the blue-eyed man, the mummer's dragon and the stone dragon.

It was brought up in another thread that Martin has hinted that the three heads of the dragon need not all be a Targaryen. If this true, then why should a Targaryen or Targaryen pretender be assumed just because the word or symbol of a dragon is used? You asked who the mummer's dragon could be if not Aegon; why not Hizdhar? We've seen him amid a cheering crowd. We know there is something off about him and the politics surrounding his rise to kingship. The situation with Hizdhar and Meereen are far more pressing and immediate than Aegon, who has headed in the opposite direction. There are plenty of lies to uncover in Meereen, and whether or not Hizdhar is aware of what's happening he is definitely a part of this charade, he may only be a pawn, but he's involved.

I believe the definition of mummer's dragon Dany gives to Jorah is a clue to understanding the prophesy. She tells Jorah that the cloth dragon on a pole is used by mummers in their follies to give the the hero something to fight. She does not infer it's a reference to her house, nor does she mention anything about it being a false dragon. It's a theatrical plot device, a monster for the hero to slay. The dragon in a mummer's play is a tool of the mummer. I'm inclined to think he is being used by the Sons of the Harpy, the Green Grace, or whoever else has an interest in controlling Meereen.

[Wouter]

Sure, but it was always a minority view, considered to be a slightly off-the-wall theory with its only fairly solid basis being the cloth-dragon vision in the Houses of the Undying.

A minority view? This theory has been on the board since back when the thing was still based on "eesite" (and after that came the Ezboard, before it moved to the present host). The board owners, Ran and Linda, supported the theory at the time and have recently reiterated this in the recent videos on Aegon. Many of the more known boards members (like some moderators) at the time supported it, IIRC. It was not generally accepted maybe, but not a minority position either. As those topics come up regularly during the years between books (this theory is actually as old as 2001 or around that time), maybe there were a couple of threads were more people argued against rather than for - but then keep in mind many others had long since stopped discussing and had moved on, until a new book got released and new theories came out (or old ones got proven or disproven).

I don't really agree with this. I've always been a Dany fan and I believe Aegon is Aegon. I'm not sure what gives you this opinion.

Dany has been feeling alone and constantly wanting to get closer to people that knew her family for most of the series. If Aegon is real, there's no reason to feel bad for Dany. She should welcome it. Of course, things are unlikely to be "happily ever after" for anyone in this series.

I also think, as a fan of Dany, it should be interesting to see how she does react to a possible living relative. In fact it is probably more interesting, and more important to her character growth to have to be at odds, politically, with Aegon if this does happen.

If she finds herself needing to oppose her own nephew, and Rhaegar's son, she may need to create some interesting alliances with houses she's been taught to hate. And hopefully that kind of situation should lead her to draw some interesting conclusions about many of the things she grew up believing.

Aegon being Aegon is good for Dany and Dany's story arc.

Aegon being a fake seems to be the option that is less interesting to Dany's story. She hears of this Aegon; She's suspicious due to Quaithe's prophecy; She defeats him or reveals him as false in some way and moves on.

sounds extremely meh. :dunno:

What gives me this opinion is the reactions in those Aegon discussions that I have followed; I read quite a number of times there that people were happy Aegon would trump Dany so she could stay at Meereen indefinitely and they were glad if she would, as Aegon was (allegedly) a lot cooler/more interesting/not fantasising over Daario/less entitled/less arrogant/etc.

Bot for the rest, whether or not Aegon is real should not change Dany's reaction to him. Real or not, Dany will always have some reason to be suspicious to a certain point, and she will always have reason to want to believe it because he would be family of her. She likely will simply not be entirely certain either way, but I guess I expect her to give him the benefit of the doubt and extend her support to him. She may even be happy to let him rule, after her not-so-great experiences in Meereen she has become wary of the job.

And surely, chances that she would have to make common cause with lords she despises now increase if he turns out to be fake rather than if he turns out to be genuine? In the latter case, that's a big possible reason less to oppose him, after all. I don't think Aegon and Dany will be at odds, anyway. Possibly, he will die and the truth about him (if he is fake) may not come out until after that.

so you're saying the mummer's dragon is aegon?

so is the "king with blue eyes who cast no shadow and who wields a shining sword" stannis?

and i think the thing with prophecies like this is that they become self fulfilling, dany is coninually looking for people to complete the prophecies that were told to her. there are many times where she wonders who the people are that have completed her "three treasons." she says it's jorah for "love" and she wonders if ben plumm was the last one, or whether there would be more.

i'm just trying to convey that i'm not sure that prophecies are all that they appear to be, only that people's beliefs in the prophecies that seem to make them true

Yes to Aegon and Stannis as their respective visions. And neither of those seems to be self-fulfilling in any way, as only Dany witnessed this particular prophecy (she shared some with Jorah, but that's it) and she had absolutely nothing to do with Stannis and Melisandre, yet Stannis has his fake Lightbringer all the same. Regarding Aegon as the mummer's dragon, either he really is Rhaegar's son or he isn't, this is straightforward and not something Dany can influence through her beliefs, so it makes no difference if she would never have entered the house of the undying at all.

Even the 3 treasons bit, which Dany does focus on and which she could influence in principle, I doubt this is going to be self-fulfilling. She probably won't have guessed it when it does come (Mirri may have been the treason for blood - Jorah arguably didn't really betray her).

[kg1982]

Dany is definitely arrogant, but she also has humility and empathy. That's why I like her. Why do you think people follow her and love her? I know, they're all "mad" like she is, whatever. By the way, if your boy prince really is a Targaryen then he's crazy just like y'all think Dany is. Joke will be on you if you get all excited about him now, so I'd exercise some caution. GRRM delights in nothing more than toppling the high and mighty. That's all I was saying I expected to happen with His Magnificence Young Griff. It clearly hasn't happened yet, but it will.

The best thing about the fakeAegon plot is the fact that he clearly isn't as awesomely awesome as Varys would have you believe. It's clear that Jon Connington is the brains behind the operation and that it has succeeded so far because of his careful planning. My theory is that the assault on Storm's End is going to end badly because they're going to be using the 16-year-old boy's reckless plan, not Jon Connington's deception. His Magnificence, Young Griff, is going to probably end up as dead because of his own stupidity.

While I'm getting tired of rightful heirs popping up all over the place, I think that the fakeAegon story could end up being a clever subversion of King Arthur. It's clear that living on a pole boat and being given the classic Arthurian education does not a humble and great king make.

[Wouter]

What Targaryen sympathies has he demonstrated? If anything I'd that his failure to do anything for Elia and Rhaenys (and probably Aegon as well) indicates that his loyalties to the family are not that strong.

Seconded. The only sympathies Varys has demonstrated are to himself and probably to Illyrio. With the Targs, he was responsible for pouring poison into Aerys' ears according to both Jaime and Barristan. Varys and Illyrio let Viserys and Dany wander around the free cities for years - and we have been told Dany wasn't all that sheltered at the time. Illyrio let Viserys leave with the Dothraki and his head full of illusions - surely a true Targ sympathiser wouldn't have left a member of this family in such a dangerous situation (it was an accident waiting to happen). Dany was sold by Viserys and Illyrio to a barbarian horselord - that's also not the action of someone who genuinely cares about the Targaryen scions, someone like Willem Darry or Barristan would have vetoed it and stopped it.

[Lummel]

Thirded.

'Aegon' is Illyrio's and Varys creature. They are extending help now to Dany because they can fit her, by marriage, and her dragons in to their plan.

They don't support the child Targaryens in exile. They sell Dany to the Dothraki who have no ships, don't like the sea and have no interest in Westeros or it's politics and allow Viserys who they know to be a proud, violent and ambitious man to go along with them. It's a set up, gets them out of the way, hopefully permanently.

It's only when Viserys and Drogo are dead and Dany has dragons that Illyrio sends Barristan to fetch her back, presumably with a mind to marry her to Aegon.