Identity of sender of letter and another possible 'glamor'

[fassreiter]

I think Mance could have written the letter. The reason for sending this letter is a personal vengence to Jon, who has defeated him. The reason for helping to save "Arya" is the fear of Melisandre who would have known if he doesn't help her. So I think it's more probable Mance has written the letter than Ramsay.

There is a problem with this reasoning, because if Mance is afraid of Melisandre, he would be because he knows she can see all kinds of stuff in her fires, including the future and the past. So if she could have known if he hadn't helped Arya to escape, she could also have known that he intended to betray Jon. Or at least as soon as he wrote the letter. So this doesn't work.

But I also want to know why Melisandre does what she does. I don't trust her. I still think the whole Arya-mission might have been a set up, a trick to get the Night's Watch to believe Jon valued his family more than his duty, and to make them think that he was behind the fake execution. So to get him to leave the Night's Watch and free the North from evil Boltons in one move.

About the missing blood in the letter: Mance would have known what the last letter looked like. If Melisandre is not an evil bitch and just a kind, glamored old lady, who wants to save the world and cares about the savety of wildling kings and their kids and little girls that are about to be raped by a monster, it might have been a nice idea to tell Mance and the spearwives that the last letter to arrive from this crazy guy they are going to visit was written in human blood, so they better take care not to end up the same way. And besides, he was present when Jon got his letter, and there would have been talk at Castle Black anyway.

By the way, did I understand that some of Ramsay's letters were written in blood AND had signatures of Northern Lords on them? So they do know the guy is totally crazy, right? And Roose apparently didn't object to that. So I don't think he is dead. I think he came up with most of the lies in the letter, and Ramsay put them the way they are.

[Claude The Sweetling]

Ramsey cant be trusted!! It is known. His own father doesn't even believe his words.

[WolfPup]

What if it was Theon who wrote the letter? He knows both Jon and Bolton very well. He seems to come back to himself in the last scene.. Asha is with him and she is very smart.. Was Stanis involved? Maybe.. If he needs Jon's help, as someone has suggested. But how would they know of Mance and other details in the letter?

It may be a crazy theory, but I don't think the contents of the letter are true. And I don't think it is Mance or Roose. It could also be the Unknown cloaked person responsible for mystery killings at Winterfell. Maester Luwin perhaps? (I don't buy the split personality Theon theory).

[The Mother of The Others]

That was some amazing sluething, Tom.

What I got out of the whole letter thing is this: Ramsay, by writing it, was being AT THE SAME TIME incredibly wreckless in a way his father wouldn't act, but also incredibly smart, sneaky and deadly as a hunter and trapper of men, which he is. That part Roose would approve of. The letter was entirely strategic, meant to accomplish exactly what it did---- drive Jon over the edge and make him act. Make him do something that would create problems between him and his black brothers. Ramsay had grown up knowing the politics of the Wall. Namely, that they're not to have any politics up there. So he knew Jon was already walking a tightrope by housing Stannis, and any further involvement in the war would be unnacceptable to the Watch. So by forcing the issue and making Jon take the plunge and break his vows, Ramsay got rid of his Wall problem by getting the Night's Watch to remove Jon for him or at least make Jon back down. It was a calculated gambit that worked. Of course, Roose wouldn't have allowed it had he been at Winterfell, because he knows that if you take enough risks and gambits like that, eventually it comes back to bite you in a big way. It's not a sustainable lifestyle, making this kind of move, would be what Roose might tell him.

So I agree Roose isn't there. He's either dead by Stannis' hand, or by Ramsay's, or most likely he's still out in the snow fighting Stannis. The way I see it, the Theon escape came just as they were getting ready to all ride out to fight Stannis, right? So I'm thinking Ramsay insisted on staying behind and getting to the bottom of Reek's escape plot, saying to his pops "I've got this! You get the pretender." Then Ramsay tortured the spearwives to learn all the accurate details he knew in the letter about their spy plot. But I'd wager he's making up the part about how his father is faring against Stannis because back at Winterfell he really doesn't know. So those battle results are just included to torque Jon off to the max and get him to make a big misstep. Also, Ramsay is firing some shots in the dark as well, like Tom said. He's looking to use the confusion of war to secure any advantage he can to improve his position at Winterfell. That's why the mention of hostages, his intimidation of the Wall in case they're thinking of sheltering 'Arya', etc. In short, the letter was a hot-headed move made in response to finding out just how involved the Wall was getting in his affairs. He doesn't have the situation locked down anywhere near as much as he makes it sound. (I hope, anyway, because I like the Asha character.) Mance's status? ~ 60% chance dead, 40% alive ?

[Whatever]

Ramsay had grown up knowing the politics of the Wall.

no.

[The Mother of The Others]

Well he had a northman's knowledge of how Jon had gotten himself into a precarious situation up there. And a lord commander walking that close to the edge can easily be made to fall. That's what I meant.

The thing I'm less sure of is when Roose's host departed Winterfell. If father and son had both already left Winterfell , and THEN Theon escaped, then things definitely didn't happen as I've described here.

[Whatever]

Well he had a northman's knowledge of how Jon had gotten himself into a precarious situation up there. And a lord commander walking that close to the edge can easily be made to fall. That's what I meant.

he was raised in a mill, as a paesant and he IS stupid. Like, a LOT. His knowledge of politic stops at "i got the bigger army". I don't think he understands politic that good. He surely did think "OMG Snow is backing stannis, he HAS to die!" but nothing more

[Jamie Lannister]

he was raised in a mill, as a paesant and he IS stupid. Like, a LOT. His knowledge of politic stops at "i got the bigger army". I don't think he understands politic that good. He surely did think "OMG Snow is backing stannis, he HAS to die!" but nothing more

I don't think Ramsay is quite that stupid. Take his sacking of Winterfell - he retreated back to the Dreadfort to plan the takeover with his father. That was clever. He only escaped death to begin with because he saw what was coming and had Reek The First die instead. He duped Theon bigtime and took over the Starks' bastion in the North.

He's a sadistic nutcase, but I don't think he's entirely stupid.

[Whatever]

I don't think Ramsay is quite that stupid. Take his sacking of Winterfell - he retreated back to the Dreadfort to plan the takeover with his father. That was clever. He only escaped death to begin with because he saw what was coming and had Reek The First die instead. He duped Theon bigtime and took over the Starks' bastion in the North.

He's a sadistic nutcase, but I don't think he's entirely stupid.

i think he's an idiot, but nevermind.

What i was saying is that he's not THAT political savvy

[fassreiter]

Just noticed something on my re-read, it concerns the Winterfell situation, so I will just post it here. Has anyone wondered yet why Fat Walda was so afraid that morning? Right after the letter comes in, I think, Roose and Ramsay start to argue, and she is really terrified. Now I always took that as her being afraid because of their fighting, but maybe it was something in the letter? Fat Walda must be a pretty tough cookie, she grew up with a bunch of Freys, after all. And she actually seems to like her creepy husband, and probably enjoyed her stay at the creepy Dreadfort, so what could make this girl loose it?

Stannis ante portas? Jon being legitimate heir to Winterfell? Or something else? Roose seems pretty shaken as well, by the way, when he actually manages to shout for a change. But when he entered the Hall, he still seemed quite relaxed. I don't think Stannis approaching would have had such an impact, they already knew he was on his way. Is it possible someone just spilled the ratcook stunt, maybe? Fat Walda is a Frey, after all. Maybe the letter was about the Manderly conspiracy?

Thoughts?

[jxd]

The happenings at Karhold, perhaps?

[Zentrope]

For a brief moment reading this thread, I had the notion that the letter is a forgery by one of the Night's Watch, or whoever it is who masterminded the assassination attempt. Maybe they needed one final pretext to fully justify ending Jon, not for doing the deed, but for surviving the aftermath. Jon, finally, unambiguously, stepped over the line, they could claim.

Alas, there are too many problems:

• The letter contained details no one knew except Jon and Mel, I think (i.e., Mance, but not even Reek, and I doubt Mel's fires are so nicely nuanced).
  
• If there were people in the Night's Watch clever enough to be that subtle, they wouldn't be in the Night's Watch, or they'd realize they had gold in one Jon Snow. (Maybe recent recruits in cahoots with one of the Karstark factions?)
  
• If the letter was forged by someone not in the Watch, then who?
  
• The pink wax.
  
• If the conspirator(s) needed some details to push Jon over the edge, they might have come up with something similar, but the details about Reek don't seem to matter, so why include them?
  
• I seem to remember a reference to GRR Martin in the thread about the next novel in the series saying something like, "Oh, and now I guess you'll want to know what happened at Winterfell" suggesting something did indeed happen such that the letter is the result. The fact that we even see it is because Martin removed some chapters.
  

Still, I like the idea of it. Kind of like the Julius Ceasar situation in which the conspirators tried to trick the dictator into accepting a crown as proof for the necessity of what they had already planned to do.

What's fishy about the letter is the motivation.

I don't get why Ramsey would write the note. Why does he care what goes on at the Wall as long as it stays at the Wall? And if he learned of Robb's legitimizing of Jon, so what? Jon can't renounce his vows and Robb as King is questionable, given he didn't survive past the usurper stage.*

Stannis is the type to ask for Jon's help straightforwardly, as he has several times, not revert to manipulative trickery.

And Mance: why the masquerade if it's him? He could have said any number of things, like that he was "stealing" Arya or what-have-you to get goad Jon into rash action -- though I don't understand why he'd want to.

I have the feeling a chapter or two has been removed from the book, but that letter left in because it had to be to play out the assassination and to support Jon's final blindness.

* BTW, when Robb granted Jon's legitimacy, what was it he said about the fact that Jon was now in the Night's Watch?

[MtnLion]

And Mance: why the masquerade if it's him? He could have said any number of things, like that he was "stealing" Arya or what-have-you to get goad Jon into rash action -- though I don't understand why he'd want to. I have the feeling a chapter or two has been removed from the book, but that letter left in because it had to be to play out the assassination and to support Jon's final blindness.

If Mance wants Jon to bring a wildling war party, he would need to masquerade as Ramsay with his own troops. If Mance just wants Jon, he could write it in his own words, but Jon would not worry about bringing troops. Of course, wildlings may have allegiance to Mance, and thus become Mance's troops when Jon arrives. Then Jon would be at a great disadvantage.

[LadyMary]

Ramsay's letter sounds unhinged, not just as the typical sadistic psychopath who likes to screw with people (which is how I'd characterize Ramsay's first letter to Jon). I think he's starting to fall apart like a cheap suitcase.

Something is going very wrong, and not just the loss of his favorite plaything (Reek), but most likely the fact that his plot will unravel once it is discovered by Jon or anyone else who knew the real Arya, or maybe he fears Theon or Jeyne will tell the truth. I note that Ramsay refers to "my bride", not "Arya" in his last letter to Jon. If he thinks Jon has Theon and Jeyne, then it makes sense he wouldn't keep up the ruse. I don't think he was playing games with Jon's head, I think he's scared. He's making threats because he risks losing everything. His legitimacy as a Lord and heir to the Warden of the North at Winterfell is predicated on his marriage to a Stark. That's what rallies the Northmen to his father. Without that, he and Roose have only the deal they struck with Tywin and Walder Frey, and he needs Northron support. Add to that Winterfell was infiltrated by spies - Mance and the spearwives, and I'll bet he fears there are more.

ETA: I can believe Mance escaped somehow, but not that he wrote that letter. He managed to get in without any problem, and I'd bet some of the spearwives would risk their own lives to make sure he did. But even assuming he knows how to read and write, why would Mance write such a strange letter? He and Jon have their differences but he was willing to go along with the rescue attempt and didn't disclose his identity to Ramsay right away as he could have if he'd really wanted to screw with Jon. Mance's whole MO was to get his people south of the wall the save their lives. He achieved that by surrendering. Why would he want Stannis's wife and daughter? Why Reek? Why "the bride"? It's not the sort of thing that Mance would care about. That letter had to be Ramsay's.

[Medieval Housefly]

Just thinking about the letter makes me feel it's not right. He would want as few people possible knowing of the lose of fake Arya. On second hand, if it is Ramsey, someone had to have talked for Ramsey to know Jon was involved.

[Whatever]

Just noticed something on my re-read, it concerns the Winterfell situation, so I will just post it here. Has anyone wondered yet why Fat Walda was so afraid that morning? Right after the letter comes in, I think, Roose and Ramsay start to argue, and she is really terrified. Now I always took that as her being afraid because of their fighting, but maybe it was something in the letter? Fat Walda must be a pretty tough cookie, she grew up with a bunch of Freys, after all. And she actually seems to like her creepy husband, and probably enjoyed her stay at the creepy Dreadfort, so what could make this girl loose it?

Stannis ante portas? Jon being legitimate heir to Winterfell? Or something else? Roose seems pretty shaken as well, by the way, when he actually manages to shout for a change. But when he entered the Hall, he still seemed quite relaxed. I don't think Stannis approaching would have had such an impact, they already knew he was on his way. Is it possible someone just spilled the ratcook stunt, maybe? Fat Walda is a Frey, after all. Maybe the letter was about the Manderly conspiracy?

Thoughts?

bump

[SeanF]

Ramsay's letter sounds unhinged, not just as the typical sadistic psychopath who likes to screw with people (which is how I'd characterize Ramsay's first letter to Jon). I think he's starting to fall apart like a cheap suitcase.

Something is going very wrong, and not just the loss of his favorite plaything (Reek), but most likely the fact that his plot will unravel once it is discovered by Jon or anyone else who knew the real Arya, or maybe he fears Theon or Jeyne will tell the truth. I note that Ramsay refers to "my bride", not "Arya" in his last letter to Jon. If he thinks Jon has Theon and Jeyne, then it makes sense he wouldn't keep up the ruse. I don't think he was playing games with Jon's head, I think he's scared. He's making threats because he risks losing everything. His legitimacy as a Lord and heir to the Warden of the North at Winterfell is predicated on his marriage to a Stark. That's what rallies the Northmen to his father. Without that, he and Roose have only the deal they struck with Tywin and Walder Frey, and he needs Northron support. Add to that Winterfell was infiltrated by spies - Mance and the spearwives, and I'll bet he fears there are more.

.

I entirely agree with that. The tone of the letter is not that of a triumphant general gloating with triumph, but rather that of an angry child smashing his toys.

As to your last point, someone other than Mance and his spearwives killed Little Walder. Probably one of the Manderlys, but we can't be sure.

[fassreiter]

If Mance wants Jon to bring a wildling war party, he would need to masquerade as Ramsay with his own troops. If Mance just wants Jon, he could write it in his own words, but Jon would not worry about bringing troops. Of course, wildlings may have allegiance to Mance, and thus become Mance's troops when Jon arrives. Then Jon would be at a great disadvantage.

Mance did not write the letter. He doesn't even know Jon has a wildling army. Neither does Ramsay, by the way. And even if he knew, Mance could not even know if they would follow Jon. Or if he would read the letter to them. And even if he had a wildling army, what would he do with them? Fight Stannis, again? See how well that one went, only now he hasn't even a tenth their number, his war band leaders are dead, except for Tormund, and next to Stannis is the red witch to consider, who can see all his moves in her fires before he even thinks them up. Including the little bit of information that Stannis isn't dead for real, so there goes his scheme. And next to Stannis and Melisandre, the North is full with Northern Lords in a bad mood and their armies as well, and all of them are busy flaying people, cooking people in pies, and looking for his skull to drink from, I don't think that would be the best moment to start the revolution again.

[Zar Lannister]

Mance did not write the letter. He doesn't even know Jon has a wildling army. Neither does Ramsay, by the way. And even if he knew, Mance could not even know if they would follow Jon. Or if he would read the letter to them. And even if he had a wildling army, what would he do with them? Fight Stannis, again? See how well that one went, only now he hasn't even a tenth their number, his war band leaders are dead, except for Tormund, and next to Stannis is the red witch to consider, who can see all his moves in her fires before he even thinks them up. Including the little bit of information that Stannis isn't dead for real, so there goes his scheme. And next to Stannis and Melisandre, the North is full with Northern Lords in a bad mood and their armies as well, and all of them are busy flaying people, cooking people in pies, and looking for his skull to drink from, I don't think that would be the best moment to start the revolution again.

So... we're back at the beginning. Who wrote the letter, then? It is obviously someone who knew Fake Arya is on the Lam, and also someone who obviously knew she was going to head north too. And also someone who knew Ramsay would want his Reek back.

Did Theon write it, then?

[CrypticWeirwood]

Did Theon write it, then?

Not possible.