[ADwD Spoliers] Why young Griff is the real deal!

[InsufficientFunds]

Young Griff is not an actual heir to the throne or Varys would not have tried so hard to kill the mountain and Tywin, who iirc are the only ones who know who's head was actually smashed.

[brashcandy]

It's a bad plan. It's a bad plan that Aegon's doing it, and it was a bad plan that Dany did it. Tyrion did the right thing with Bronn up in the Vale - he was just working with what he had and in fact relied on sellswords being treacherous - but he should have separated from Bronn and sought more reliable aid pretty much as soon as he reached Kings' Landing. Tyrion has a bizarre habit of trusting people because he knows they're untrustworthy. I suppose it's because he feels he can better anticipate what they'll do, but it's still odd.

Actually, I don't think it's such a bad plan. It's certainly risky, but hey even sellswords have a twisted sense of honour, as seen with Bronn who names his child after Tyrion. The point is that right now when you're trying to conquer someplace, before you have any local support, you either use sellswords or your enemy does. Take your pick. The Golden company may turn on Aegon, but that doesn't mean he was an idiot for using them. As Gogossos said above about Dany's council, sometimes it may even be good to have people on your council whose loyalty you're not absolutely sure about, or that were once your enemies. Leaders need to take the risks to reap the rewards. ETA: This is why I think Daario may actually be trustworthy too. Everyone expects him to be a crook and a traitor, but he's never shown anything but loyalty to Dany. He may be arrogant and callous, but that has nothing to do with loyalty.

[Jem]

"...by the way everyone sais Ashara's child switched with Aegon, or that she is Lenore, but despite the fact that some Daynes have Targ like silvery/pale blond hair, Ashara was dark haired. And Septa Lenore is blond. By the way Oberyn happened to have a blond daughter whose mother supposed to be a septa.... "

Lemore is a brunette.

[Été]

Young Griff is not an actual heir to the throne or Varys would not have tried so hard to kill the mountain and Tywin, who iirc are the only ones who know who's head was actually smashed.

Neither of them would have known Aegon from Adam. Tywin had been sulking at Casterly Rock since Harrenhal or thereabouts, so he's no more likely than Gregor Clegane to have even set eyes on Aegon.

[Gogossos]

I admit that the Lady Lenore angle still has me puzzled, because she if Ashara Dayne would as Elia’s handmaiden provide the critical chain-of-evidence link to validate Aegon as Rhaegar’s son to Lord Connington. And I cannot see any reason for doing her that. I am more than half afraid that Lord Varys really did nab Rhaegar’s son in time to save the infant’s life, but that he then further swapped in a Blackfyre heir, presumably Illyrio and Serra’s son, to grow up as Aegon, and then sent Rhaegar’s son off to grow up as Darkstar, who appears to be a bit older than Aegon, which would make sense. Darkstar would get his black streak from Elia, which would not have been noticeable in an infant.

Wow. That would be really complicated. It still doesn't cover Illryo's angle with Dorne and Viserys/Dany, was that a back up? Neither does it cover R+L=J. Adding those and unravelling the whole thing requires two books on its own. I think Aegon is either some poor kid stolen from his parents or a Blackfyre heir. Both mean he's fake using my definition. So, assuming Rhaegar's Aegon died then in what priority would Varys rank his various conspiracies? Arrianne/Viserys marriage followed by "Aegon" followed by Dany/Dothraki? I've ignored the Darkstar angle for now.

Now, if the Ashara=Lemore and if R+L=J, with Ashara somehow aware of Jon, then how does she betray her friend twice (Rhaegar/Lyanna and secret Aegon)? And how do we reconcile the two theories? Hell, how do we reconcile the secret Jon, secret Aegon, secret Viserys betrothal with the same Ashara, JonCon, Varys, Illirio people?

To answer my questions. One of R+L=J or Aegon is not true. Both Jon and Aegon can't be legitimate (in the way we all understand it to mean). This reduces the likelihood that Ashara=Lemore (since Ashara would know Jon was up north, I favor R+L=J because it has more evidence). It also reduces the number of conspiracies Varys is involved with to two (Viserys/Dany and Aegon). In this case, Ashara had a still birth, killed herself and House Deyne's secrets only relate to Jon. Also, Aegon was always Vary's Plan B, his Plan A perished with Viserys and Dany's totally unexpected re-emergence with dragons is now being used to bolster that Plan B. It means risking Dorne's support but they are willing to do it Only one problem, Dany is growing more powerful and more unpredictable (from their vantage point of course).

Aegon, whether he's fake or not, still faces a threat from Dany if he takes the Throne. Her credentials aren't in question, she's got a growing army and has dragons. He needs her onside. Even if he wins the throne while Dany is still in Meereen, he's going to be looking over his shoulder to see if she's coming. And when she arrives, he cannot control how she will react. Do they hire the FM to assassinate her?

[Silverin]

"...by the way everyone sais Ashara's child switched with Aegon, or that she is Lenore, but despite the fact that some Daynes have Targ like silvery/pale blond hair, Ashara was dark haired. And Septa Lenore is blond. By the way Oberyn happened to have a blond daughter whose mother supposed to be a septa.... "

Lemore is a brunette.

yoa are right, for some reason i was soo sure she is blod, i just checked.

[Été]

Wow. That would be really complicated. It still doesn't cover Illryo's angle with Dorne and Viserys/Dany, was that a back up? Neither does it cover R+L=J. Adding those and unravelling the whole thing requires two books on its own. I think Aegon is either some poor kid stolen from his parents or a Blackfyre heir. Both mean he's fake using my definition. So, assuming Rhaegar's Aegon died then in what priority would Varys rank his various conspiracies? Arrianne/Viserys marriage followed by "Aegon" followed by Dany/Dothraki? I've ignored the Darkstar angle for now.

Sorry, I don't understand how R+L=J and fake!Aegon are mutually exclusive concepts. Could you explain that again? Since when is Varys even aware of Jon's true heritage?

[iamthedave]

I for one love the Aegon storyline. Actually it was the only single interesting thing that happened in the tyrion chapters in my opinion. After he left them they became boring.

Just because we know some characters from the beginning it does not mean that they are automatically the good guys vs the ones who show up later and mess up everything for them. From Aegon's POV it will probably be the other way around. First when he is waiting for Dany she does not come to Westeros, but when he is already securing himself and would be fine by himself she comes.

And since I don't think the book revolves around Jon and Dany (thank god for that), I don't think it is a complication at all.

Again I think it was supposed to come up from the very beginning. Aegon was actually always part of the story it's just this was the first time we met him.

Well in fairness, when Stannis turned up did any of us think 'that there is a major player'?

Did we really think he'd be in the north as - essentially - the great hope of the North being free of the Boltons? Even if it turns out he's dead, he's come a long way from his humble, teeth-grinding Davos bromancy beginnings.

[iamthedave]

Actually, I don't think it's such a bad plan. It's certainly risky, but hey even sellswords have a twisted sense of honour, as seen with Bronn who names his child after Tyrion. The point is that right now when you're trying to conquer someplace, before you have any local support, you either use sellswords or your enemy does. Take your pick. The Golden company may turn on Aegon, but that doesn't mean he was an idiot for using them. As Gogossos said above about Dany's council, sometimes it may even be good to have people on your council whose loyalty you're not absolutely sure about, or that were once your enemies. Leaders need to take the risks to reap the rewards. ETA: This is why I think Daario may actually be trustworthy too. Everyone expects him to be a crook and a traitor, but he's never shown anything but loyalty to Dany. He may be arrogant and callous, but that has nothing to do with loyalty.

Yes, I mis-spoke to call it 'bad'. It's a good but very risky plan. Why I say it's bad is the same reason I say Doran's cunning plan of revengingness is bad: too many moving parts, and nothing to fall back on if it goes wrong. And being charitable to Aegon, it's not as if he has other options. But if he is mentally relying on them, that's a terrible terrible idea. In his head he should always be thinking 'these are my allies until I get some real ones'. Not that he should discard them as soon as he has those 'real' allies, but he should not lean on the Golden Company. We already know that one of its leading members is wishy-washy, and I reckon if he gets betrayed by them, that's the fella who'll do it.

And I suppose you could also say the Golden Company has a near spotless record among sellsword companies. Still, the saying's around for a reason. They're in this for a reward, in the end. If the Iron Throne offers that and more besides, how long will they hold to their oaths?

And I am absolutely a supporter of having people on your council you don't trust. It's the best way to keep an eye on them for one thing. Did Tyrion trust anyone on the small council when he was Hand? Besides, if you want an effective council you need to pick the best, not just people you like, and sometimes that means being with people you don't like.

The thing is Dany should in my ideal world have tried to keep tabs on what they got up to when not in her immediate presence once in Meereen. It's not just that sellswords are treacherous, these PARTICULAR sellswords already joined her by betraying their employers the second they saw that there was a high chance of them losing. So she not only knows that sellswords have a reputation for being treacherous, she knows these particular sellswords are treacherous, and she profited from it.

When things became as grim as they did, she really ought to have been looking for signs of betrayal. Does that sound paranoid? Yes. But it's sensible given both have treachery in their recent past. I do see this as a negative, and I think that in this world not doing so has been shown to be a negative that comes back to bite you. It's not like this is a fantasy world where people are bound by honour and genuinely stick to it. They say they are and stab you in the back then come up with a way to 'write off' their blatant, obvious betrayal.

It is a sad, sad world when Sandor Clegane can emerge as an anti-hero, and Tyrion Lannister comes across like a virtuous man. Which he isn't, but in the context he's in most of the time he sure looks like one.

Focusing on Aegon, there's only one obvious flaw that's apparent and I imagine is in the design: he's been brought up to rely on other people. Varys of course wants that because he wants Aegon to fall under his spell the way three other kings have (it's noted that Varys helped make Aerys' paranoia even worse than it always was). However, in some ways Storm's End might be a positive sign: Aegon is definitely thinking for himself, and his rationale for leading the attack is a decent one.

Whether this is the sign of some positive bold forward thinking or youthful rashness and impatience that's going to get him killed is a different matter and will only come out in time. Tyrion seems to think it's the latter, though, and I didn't find Aegon's behaviour on the boat especially encouraging on that front.

Aegon, whether he's fake or not, still faces a threat from Dany if he takes the Throne. Her credentials aren't in question, she's got a growing army and has dragons. He needs her onside. Even if he wins the throne while Dany is still in Meereen, he's going to be looking over his shoulder to see if she's coming. And when she arrives, he cannot control how she will react. Do they hire the FM to assassinate her?

If Aegon's real and he's on the Iron Throne, Dany will lose almost all common support by going against him.

It's been noted before that her army consists of traitors and foreigners. Almost all of them have got something against them. Tyrion is hated everywhere, Jorah is still guilty of a major crime that would have got him executed, and it seems increasingly likely she's going to bring the raping, pillaging Dothraki along with her. She may be able to bully them into behaving themselves, but they're still going to be obscenely violent and they're walking propoganda material.

She's going to land as a foreign invader under that scenario. Even worse, if Aegon then sits the throne, and is real, Dorne won't be on her side. She'll have to reconquer the entire seven kingdoms like Aegon... to take away the throne that she has no right to.

At that point if Aegon offers to marry her (and there's no reason why he wouldn't, dragons and such), then Dany would be wise to accept. Otherwise, the entire story comes down to dragon ex machina and we'll all be pissed off by that.

If he's fake and she can prove it, then she'll be able to get massive support and take over easily enough. Alternatively wiping out the others would sure work as a PR stunt.

Side note: I'm still not convinced on the invincibility of dragons.

Let's not forget, the maesters are 'building a world that has no room in it for dragons and magic'. They MUST have something in mind to deal with them. All the dragons died. Someone killed them.

[BrosBeforeSnows]

My first impression after reading Dany's chapters in ADwD is that she will be killed before she ever makes it back to Westeros. She only seems to be getting softer and more sensitive as the series goes on... not quite the stuff merciless conquerors are made of. When she watched Drogo pour molten gold over her brother's head, I thought, that's one hardcore chick... but she's only gone backwards since.

There's no way I can even picture her as a conqueror now. For example, Aegon was said to have burned entire castles down with his dragons, innocent children and all. If he had cared about all the innocent people that would die in his invasion, he never would've invaded. And if he had tried to spare innocent lives in his war of conquest, he would've been defeated. The only time Dany has had that same kind of fire is when she's saving innocent children, not destroying them. She won't even use her dragons because of how afraid she is they'll kill children. A nice girl? Yes. A conqueror? No way.

And this isn't only true for Westeros. The Lannisters win because they are absolutely brutal and merciless. Likewise for Alexander the Great, Augustus Caesar, Genghis Khan, etc.. And yes, even the United States won WWII because we were merciless. I mean, when we fire-bombed and dropped nukes on Japanese cities, we didn't exactly take precautions to avoid bombing elementary schools and orphanages. We turned cities to ash... and we won.

Unless Dany has some kind of life-changing revelation, I don't see how she'll ever lead an army and put thousands of smallfolk to the sword, let alone burn down castles with her dragons. And notice, GRRM felt the need to point out that a dragon can have a new rider after the old one dies (meaning, when Dany dies, Jon Snow, or Tyrion, or whoever can ride Drogon... it ain't like Avatar).

Also, everything, other than Dany's temperament, seems to be pointing to her eventual success in claiming the Iron Throne... which is all the more reason why she won't. GRRM is rarely ever that obvious. Dany has the dragons, Dany has the prophecies, but Dany could die just as easily as Rhaegar, or Ned Stark, or anyone else.

[Silverin]

Wow. That would be really complicated. It still doesn't cover Illryo's angle with Dorne and Viserys/Dany, was that a back up? Neither does it cover R+L=J. Adding those and unravelling the whole thing requires two books on its own. I think Aegon is either some poor kid stolen from his parents or a Blackfyre heir. Both mean he's fake using my definition. So, assuming Rhaegar's Aegon died then in what priority would Varys rank his various conspiracies? Arrianne/Viserys marriage followed by "Aegon" followed by Dany/Dothraki? I've ignored the Darkstar angle for now.

Actually it does. First you have to know that Dorne is too proud. Dorne didn't help anything neither to dany neither to Viserys yet they exepted the marriage pact to be accepted? Please... The reason Varys/Illyrio didn't say anything about Aegon to doran is simply. In that case the Dorne would have wanted to marry Arianne to Aegon (who is the real heir). So this way they get the support of dorne (Arrianne married to Viserys), but on the other hand the heir doesn't end up being married to them. I think they thought the actual heir could have a better match than Arrianne.

It was only after Dany got dragons that they obviously wanted him to marry Dany, so i don't know who were they considering before. But definietly not Arianne.

By the way wathever Aegon's parentage is it is clear that from the beginning Varys/Illyrio was backing him. That is why he was given to Connington (Rhaegar's good friend), education, septa Lemore, Duck and all of that. He was taken care from the time he was still just a baby,

Now, if the Ashara=Lemore and if R+L=J, with Ashara somehow aware of Jon, then how does she betray her friend twice (Rhaegar/Lyanna and secret Aegon)? And how do we reconcile the two theories? Hell, how do we reconcile the secret Jon, secret Aegon, secret Viserys betrothal with the same Ashara, JonCon, Varys, Illirio people?

Ashara was Elia's friend so her backing Aegon her friends son is not betraying. And her letting her baby switched so Elia's baby can survive is not betraying at all. And Elia's son comes before Lyanna's wether she married Rhaegar or not.

To answer my questions. One of R+L=J or Aegon is not true. Both Jon and Aegon can't be legitimate (in the way we all understand it to mean).

Why wouldn't both be legitimate? I acctually believe neither is, but what would stop one theory from the other being true? Why can't Rhaegar have two surviving sons? In some way it can even be minoring Aegon the Conqueror it is just this time Dany can have two husband? (I don't thinkit will, but it still can happen) The possibilities are endless. I don't think one theory contradicts the other at all.

Also, Aegon was always Vary's Plan B, his Plan A perished with Viserys and Dany's totally unexpected re-emergence with dragons is now being used to bolster that Plan B. It means risking Dorne's support but they are willing to do it Only one problem, Dany is growing more powerful and more unpredictable.

I disagree Aegon was clearly Plan A, since he was the one who was taken care of since he was a child, he was groomed. Dany and Viserys was compeletly neglected for years by them. And actually the very reason that Dany has dragon made her actually important to them. If she never would have dragons I am pretty sure they would have just let her die in the desert.

Aegon, whether he's fake or not, still faces a threat from Dany if he takes the Throne. Her credentials aren't in question, she's got a growing army and has dragons. He needs her onside. Even if he wins the throne while Dany is still in Meereen, he's going to be looking over his shoulder to see if she's coming. And when she arrives, he cannot control how she will react. Do they hire the FM to assassinate her?

In a different reply I already wrote it down. Aegon went to westeros so that he could be WORTHY of Dany. He is right now waiting for her, he is conquering the lands so that when she reaches Westeros he can be a worthy suitor to a queen whit dragons. he does not want the throne to simply himself, he wants to reestablish the Targ line with Dany. He wants to rule with her. Of course when he gets the news about how she is already married or dead will change his plans (he will have to do it alone, reestablish the Targ dinasty, he probably have to get married etc....), but he is not someone who is trying to steal the throne away from Dany. He actually wants to help her get it. Of course when he hears rumors about how Dany is married/dead the whole will change and they might even end up as enemies, but so far Aegon wants to be an ally.

[Silverin]

Well in fairness, when Stannis turned up did any of us think 'that there is a major player'?

Did we really think he'd be in the north as - essentially - the great hope of the North being free of the Boltons? Even if it turns out he's dead, he's come a long way from his humble, teeth-grinding Davos bromancy beginnings.

I definietly didn't. I though he would be a big villain like character with his Red God.

And I am so happy that didn't happen Stannis is my other big favourite storyline from ADwD. :)

[Gogossos]

Sorry, I don't understand how R+L=J and fake!Aegon are mutually exclusive concepts. Could you explain that again? Since when is Varys even aware of Jon's true heritage?

No I said R+L=J and true!Aegon are probably mutually exclusive, using Ashara as "evidence". If Lemore=Ashara, would she be involved in two separate Targ conspiracies, both of them essentially betraying Elia (well, saving her son but lying to her and switching her baby in the process)? It might be betrayal for the good of the realm but it is a betrayal. Ashara would most likely be aware of Jon's heritage, that her brother died for. One person involved with two conspiracies of that magnitude is more complicated than CrypticWeirwood's switcheroo within a switcheroo theory.

[iamthedave]

Unless Dany has some kind of life-changing revelation, I don't see how she'll ever lead an army and put thousands of smallfolk to the sword, let alone burn down castles with her dragons. And notice, GRRM felt the need to point out that a dragon can have a new rider after the old one dies (meaning, when Dany dies, Jon Snow, or Tyrion, or whoever can ride Drogon... it ain't like Avatar).

Also, everything, other than Dany's temperament, seems to be pointing to her eventual success in claiming the Iron Throne... which is all the more reason why she won't. GRRM is rarely ever that obvious. Dany has the dragons, Dany has the prophecies, but Dany could die just as easily as Rhaegar, or Ned Stark, or anyone else.

You mean like the one at the end of Dance? That seems life-changing to me. For good or bad, I'm not sure, but there ain't no way Dany's coming out of that the same woman.

I'm not at all sure that 'everything' points to her success. Would we even think that if not for having so much damn prophecy stuffed down our throats? Every sign in Dance suggests she's not going to Westeros anytime soon (and in fact Quaithe The Never Wrong seems to indicate Dany is going even further East before heading to Westeros). Her dragons are really the only reason it looks like she can't fail. Because they're dragons, and apparently dragons are unstoppable relentless death machines that can torch entire continents if they like.

But if anything's going to end up inverted, I think it's that perception. No way do I think all three of those dragons will live. Sooner or later we're going to learn how dragons are killed.

Actually it does. First you have to know that Dorne is too proud. Dorne didn't help anything neither to dany neither to Viserys yet they exepted the marriage pact to be accepted? Please... The reason Varys/Illyrio didn't say anything about Aegon to doran is simply. In that case the Dorne would have wanted to marry Arianne to Aegon (who is the real heir). So this way they get the support of dorne (Arrianne married to Viserys), but on the other hand the heir doesn't end up being married to them. I think they thought the actual heir could have a better match than Arrianne.

It was only after Dany got dragons that they obviously wanted him to marry Dany, so i don't know who were they considering before. But definietly not Arianne.

By the way wathever Aegon's parentage is it is clear that from the beginning Varys/Illyrio was backing him. That is why he was given to Connington (Rhaegar's good friend), education, septa Lemore, Duck and all of that. He was taken care from the time he was still just a baby,

I have to admit I'm getting uncertain about the original plan, and I'm wondering if Varys all along was planning an EPIC bait-and-switch on all his supposed allies.

We know about this marriage contract with Viserys that was signed some time ago. But wouldn't that have invalidated Aegon?

My personal thinking is one of the following:

1. Varys was always intending it to be Aegon, never Viserys or Dany, and fully intended on reneging on his deal with Dorne to put Aegon on the throne (the guy groomed specifically by Varys to rule).

or

2. Viserys was plan A, Aegon plan B. This might be supported by Illyrio being upset. Not that he was losing 'his son' but that plan B had to go into action and he'd grown genuinely fond of Aegon in the time they had spent together, and maybe hoped to have him as a proper foster son when Varys determined he had no use for him.

It just bugs me that Varys seems to have planned this for so long. He MUST have had things in motion for Aegon way before that contract was signed with Viserys. There's certainly nothing suggested in Aegon's storyline to date that Varys included a 'what if' scenario; it seemed set up so Aegon and only Aegon could rule.

What if both plans had succeeded? Viserys and Aegon both come to adulthood and both come to Westeros? Does Varys arrange Viserys' death so his preferred monarch sits the throne? Or does he rely on simple politics to insure proper line of succession gets Aegon there? It looks like Viserys would have been coming back first in his part of the plan, and if he had, all of the former issues Dany/Aegon might face should Aegon sit the Iron Throne would be there in Viserys/Aegon.

[brashcandy]

It is a sad, sad world when Sandor Clegane can emerge as an anti-hero, and Tyrion Lannister comes across like a virtuous man. Which he isn't, but in the context he's in most of the time he sure looks like one.</p>

Focusing on Aegon, there's only one obvious flaw that's apparent and I imagine is in the design: he's been brought up to rely on other people. Varys of course wants that because he wants Aegon to fall under his spell the way three other kings have (it's noted that Varys helped make Aerys' paranoia even worse than it always was). However, in some ways Storm's End might be a positive sign: Aegon is definitely thinking for himself, and his rationale for leading the attack is a decent one.

Whether this is the sign of some positive bold forward thinking or youthful rashness and impatience that's going to get him killed is a different matter and will only come out in time. Tyrion seems to think it's the latter, though, and I didn't find Aegon's behaviour on the boat especially encouraging on that front.

If Aegon's real and he's on the Iron Throne, Dany will lose almost all common support by going against him.

It's been noted before that her army consists of traitors and foreigners. Almost all of them have got something against them. Tyrion is hated everywhere, Jorah is still guilty of a major crime that would have got him executed, and it seems increasingly likely she's going to bring the raping, pillaging Dothraki along with her. She may be able to bully them into behaving themselves, but they're still going to be obscenely violent and they're walking propoganda material.

She's going to land as a foreign invader under that scenario. Even worse, if Aegon then sits the throne, and is real, Dorne won't be on her side. She'll have to reconquer the entire seven kingdoms like Aegon... to take away the throne that she has no right to.

At that point if Aegon offers to marry her (and there's no reason why he wouldn't, dragons and such), then Dany would be wise to accept. Otherwise, the entire story comes down to dragon ex machina and we'll all be pissed off by that.

If he's fake and she can prove it, then she'll be able to get massive support and take over easily enough. Alternatively wiping out the others would sure work as a PR stunt.

Side note: I'm still not convinced on the invincibility of dragons.

Let's not forget, the maesters are 'building a world that has no room in it for dragons and magic'. They MUST have something in mind to deal with them. All the dragons died. Someone killed them.

Ok Dave, I agree with a lot of what you have here. I don't believe the dragons are invincible either, and Dany will have to work as hard at protecting them as she wants them to protect her. The biggest flaw that I can see right now in Varys' and Lf's plans is that they didn't consider the love factor. Aegon falling in love (with Arianne), and Sansa either being in love/infatuated with the Hound. I think the Aegon/Dany ship has sailed whether or not he knows it yet. If the love factor doesn't matter, then it would be like GRRM to have the two biggest players be forced to bring their two pawns together into a marriage pact. Then what the hell would Varys and LF do? Who steps aside and allows the other to be the playmaker? And the whole magic coming back into the world is another thing that suggests to me that Aegon is doomed. Presumably Sam at the Citadel will find out lots of things, he may even be able to stop the maesters if he wants to help Dany and fulfill Aemon's last wishes. So, we know that Varys says he hates magic. The North and the dragons are all about magic now... Aegon has to die in a sense for this new world to unfold...

[brashcandy]

</p>

Unless Dany has some kind of life-changing revelation, I don't see how she'll ever lead an army and put thousands of smallfolk to the sword, let alone burn down castles with her dragons. And notice, GRRM felt the need to point out that a dragon can have a new rider after the old one dies (meaning, when Dany dies, Jon Snow, or Tyrion, or whoever can ride Drogon... it ain't like Avatar).

I see you've missed the heated exchanges on other threads about how Dany's final chapter shows she done with being a nice girl, you know the whole "Dragons plant no trees" line. And that she's getting ready to burn everything down to ashes :) Anyways, I don't think she will and I don't think she needs to to be a conqueror. But I've argues long and hard on that already and I just wanted to point out that many people think nice Dany is gone for good.

[Gogossos]

A nice girl? Yes. A conqueror? No way.

Ask Astapor or Meereen. She doesn't conquer any place in ADWD, that's why she's in a no conquer mode. And so far she has always fought with odds against her - look at her tentative plans for the Yunkai'i (sellsword treachery). The peace agreement was not her idea, it was Hizdahr's and she didn't like and never expected it to last.

Unless Dany has some kind of life-changing revelation, I don't see how she'll ever lead an army and put thousands of smallfolk to the sword, let alone burn down castles with her dragons.

There are many ways of winning a war, sacking and blazing down homesteads seems to be one. And Dany doesn't want to unleash her dragons (but she treats this as a state secret, as she should). Like Barristan says, it might be that Drogon's shadow will be enough to win many wars.

Also, everything, other than Dany's temperament, seems to be pointing to her eventual success in claiming the Iron Throne... which is all the more reason why she won't. GRRM is rarely ever that obvious. Dany has the dragons, Dany has the prophecies, but Dany could die just as easily as Rhaegar, or Ned Stark, or anyone else.

Well, I suspected Jon would be LC from a long way back and it happened. Sometimes we can predict things fairly easily because we've covered 5 books out of 7. It's natural that some things get clearer as time goes, there's enough background now to make predictions. But with Aegon in the mix, Jon seemingly dead, the Starks scattered, major Houses not exactly unified and the Others invasion imminent, the initial set up doesn't look so rosy now, does it? But we know that after ADOS the resolution will be found.

[corbon]

I admit that the Lady Lenore angle still has me puzzled, because she if Ashara Dayne would as Elia's handmaiden provide the critical chain-of-evidence link to validate Aegon as Rhaegar's son to Lord Connington. And I cannot see any reason for doing her that.

Umm, she's a Dhorne-Targ loyalist from way back. If Aegon is Elia's then she has every reason to validate him.

But perhaps I'm missing some context in the conversation?

If Aegon is not Elia's, then she doesn't have any reason to validate him, but she might be fooled. Given she was dishonoured and had a baby, she probably was away from KL (back in Dorne where it is less of a deal and/or she has family support) for up to maybe a year (or more) before the sack, so she wouldn't have seen baby Aegon for that long and if a sufficiently similar baby was found she probably could be fooled. People see what they want to see, and she surely would have been desperately wishing to believe Varys that he got the real Aegon out alive.

All in all, there is a very complicated conspiracy here variously involving Connington, perhaps the Martells, and certainly the Daynes, Eddard, and Varys, and I can't really quite unravel it. I can't even quite decide who's fooling whom. My guess is that only Varys knows the full story, and that everyone else has only a piece of the truth, and not always the same piece, either.

I think Varys is vastly over-rated by much of the board, and so are the conspiracies he is supposed to be connected to.

I think R+L=J has basically nothing at all to do with Varys, and probably little or nothing to do with Ashara. Varys has a simple baby-switch-before-the-murder followed by secretly-raise-the-true-heir-abroad game. He co-opted Ashara=Lemore and later Connington for the second and used Dany+Viserys as a 'public' distraction (which was working fine until it blew up in his face when the dragons appeared!).

Neither the Martells nor any of the Starks are in on any of this.

Plus I still think there may still be a baby missing, but perhaps Ashara's bastard child really was stillborn. I don't believe it though: show me the grave.

While I understand the sentiment, I think things are actually much simpler than we've generally made them, and not every little thing we know is false. There are really basically just two plots going on, one of which is basically a tiny handful of people in almost an anti-plot (unknown true heir is being kept away from his heritage to keep him safe as a person) and the other of which is confined to an almost equally tiny handful of people but is more conventional (supposed true heir was rescued and is being raised in secret to take back his throne).

I think Ashara's babe is only there to connect to Lemore's stretchmarks (and possibly increase Stark guilt over their treatment of Ashara, if Ned even knew of the babe). She really was female and stillborn. But it still could be a smokescreen for another element of a plot.

Speaking of grave matters...

...

Hmh hmm hmm: memories of lost Lenore amidst ravens with strange messages. I smell a tribute.

It's Lemore, not Lenore.

Not invalidating your tribute idea, but weakening it somewhat.

Now, if the Ashara=Lemore and if R+L=J, with Ashara somehow aware of Jon, then how does she betray her friend twice (Rhaegar/Lyanna and secret Aegon)?

If Ashara knows of Jon, then its because Eddard Stark told her. If. In which case he may very well have told her he intends to raise Jon as his own bastard.

She has no conflict anyway - she fakes her suicide to go support Aegon because he is the real heir even if Jon is legitimate. That is not a betrayal in any way of Elia.

And how do we reconcile the two theories? Hell, how do we reconcile the secret Jon, secret Aegon, secret Viserys betrothal with the same Ashara, JonCon, Varys, Illirio people?

Secret Jon has nothing to do with Varys or Ashara, is all Ned and Lyanna.

Secret Aegon is Varys and Ashara.

Secret Viserys betrothal is Doran Martell and probably Aerys way back (though not secret then. Varys probably knew, through Illyrio, but that is no problem. He knows Viserys is behind Aegon in the succession, so even if it goes ahead if merely ties the Martells closer to the Targ cause.

So there are no problems here that I can see.

To answer my questions. One of R+L=J or Aegon is not true. Both Jon and Aegon can't be legitimate (in the way we all understand it to mean).

Simply not true.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Wow. That would be really complicated. It still doesn't cover Illryo's angle with Dorne and Viserys/Dany, was that a back up? Neither does it cover R+L=J.

I don’t think Renly+Loras’s love-child needs to be covered here. The Baratheons are surely seen as barbarians by the previous regime.

Adding those and unravelling the whole thing requires two books on its own. I think Aegon is either some poor kid stolen from his parents or a Blackfyre heir. Both mean he's fake using my definition.

Whether a red dragon or a black, Aegon is still a legimate heir to the Iron Throne. You just hate the idea. That doesn’t make it wrong. Again, consult Henry Tudor.

Now, if the Ashara=Lemore and if R+L=J, with Ashara somehow aware of Jon, then how does she betray her friend twice (Rhaegar/Lyanna and secret Aegon)? And how do we reconcile the two theories? Hell, how do we reconcile the secret Jon, secret Aegon, secret Viserys betrothal with the same Ashara, JonCon, Varys, Illirio people?

I have no idea what the deal is with Lenore. As I said, she is a critical piece to the puzzle, as she was tight with both Ned and Elia.

To answer my questions. One of R+L=J or Aegon is not true. Both Jon and Aegon can't be legitimate (in the way we all understand it to mean).

You’re just making that stuff up, including the true part and the understand part. Aegon as a Blackfyre is certainly a legitimate heir to the throne. He is perfectly real, not fakey fake fake fakey fake. Jon as a bastard would not be.

[Gogossos]

You’re just making that stuff up, including the true part and the understand part. Aegon as a Blackfyre is certainly a legitimate heir to the throne. He is perfectly real, not fakey fake fake fakey fake. Jon as a bastard would not be.

Of course I'm making stuff up, just like you are. GRRM has not confirmed our theories yet (that's what they are, theories). And you keep deliberately misunderstanding my "fake" definition. Ramsay married a fake Arya. That's what I mean by fake - she was not Bran's sister. She was not Ned's daughter. Aegon as a Blackfyre might be legitimate but unless he starts to identify himself fully and not allow people to presume he is Rhaegar's son then he's fake Aegon. I don't understand your problem with this concept.