And the Iron Thrones goes to...

[ledlevee]

Let's look at the guy who's writing these books and what he's written before, before we start coming up with widespread theories that seem (in my opinion) just a little too easy and formulaic for Martin to use them.

He introduced a strong, forthright, honest hero who traveled into a den of pigs. In most fantasies, this hero would have his problems, but he would prevail in the end. In Game of Thrones, his head was lopped off while his daughters watched. His son raised his banners to avenge his father. In most fantasies, he would have triumphed and avenged his father by killing the evil villains. In Storm of Swords, he was murdered in cold blood during a wedding. His mother was murdered also. Martin has also thrown children from windows, described incestuous relationships, and done various other awful things to the characters we thought invincible.

On to Jon, dragons, Dany, Aegon, etc. Even if R+J=L is true (and I think it is because of all the clues Martin has given us), do you think Martin is the type of writer who would have Jon triumph over evil and win the Iron Throne, to give Westeros years of peace and happiness? Also, it seems like the dragons are invincible. Martin has painted them as invincible. He also painted Gregor Clegane and Sandor Clegane as invincible. So I say in Martin's world, dragons are not invincible. I wouldn't be suprised if the person you least expect finds a way to kill them through some form of treachery. And Dany has been painted as the one who's going to conquer Westeros since the beginning. What does that mean in Martin's world? She's probably not going to be the one to conquer Westeros. As a matter of fact, I think it's very likely that she will die, along with her dragons.

Okay, just had to say all that to open everyone's minds a little. Remember, anyone can be killed in Martin's world. I don't think the answer for what is going to happen in the end is going to be a simple one. For me, that means you can count out Jon, Dany, or Aegon sitting on the iron throne in the end. It could just as easily be someone like Littlefinger, Varys, or Tyrion, since those seem to be the types of characters who always win in Martin's world: the tricky, sly ones. That being said, one of these characters could end up putting Aegon, Sansa, Jon, Dany, or someone else on the throne if it fits their motives, but they'll still really be the one in charge.

[ledlevee]

PS: I also think Stannis is ultimately doomed in Martin's world due to his honesty, bravery, and forthrightness. These are great qualities in a person, but they don't help in the Game of Thrones, as we've seen.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Tommen is not a Good King, he's just a puppet.

Aw, spare a care for the little moppet.

[Lady Octarina]

Let's look at the guy who's writing these books and what he's written before, before we start coming up with widespread theories that seem (in my opinion) just a little too easy and formulaic for Martin to use them.

He introduced a strong, forthright, honest hero who traveled into a den of pigs. In most fantasies, this hero would have his problems, but he would prevail in the end. In Game of Thrones, his head was lopped off while his daughters watched. His son raised his banners to avenge his father. In most fantasies, he would have triumphed and avenged his father by killing the evil villains. In Storm of Swords, he was murdered in cold blood during a wedding. His mother was murdered also. Martin has also thrown children from windows, described incestuous relationships, and done various other awful things to the characters we thought invincible.

On to Jon, dragons, Dany, Aegon, etc. Even if R+J=L is true (and I think it is because of all the clues Martin has given us), do you think Martin is the type of writer who would have Jon triumph over evil and win the Iron Throne, to give Westeros years of peace and happiness? Also, it seems like the dragons are invincible. Martin has painted them as invincible. He also painted Gregor Clegane and Sandor Clegane as invincible. So I say in Martin's world, dragons are not invincible. I wouldn't be suprised if the person you least expect finds a way to kill them through some form of treachery. And Dany has been painted as the one who's going to conquer Westeros since the beginning. What does that mean in Martin's world? She's probably not going to be the one to conquer Westeros. As a matter of fact, I think it's very likely that she will die, along with her dragons.

Okay, just had to say all that to open everyone's minds a little. Remember, anyone can be killed in Martin's world. I don't think the answer for what is going to happen in the end is going to be a simple one. For me, that means you can count out Jon, Dany, or Aegon sitting on the iron throne in the end. It could just as easily be someone like Littlefinger, Varys, or Tyrion, since those seem to be the types of characters who always win in Martin's world: the tricky, sly ones. That being said, one of these characters could end up putting Aegon, Sansa, Jon, Dany, or someone else on the throne if it fits their motives, but they'll still really be the one in charge.

:agree:

Except for the part about Jon. His plot armor and the clear favoritism Martin shows to him suggest his fate might not be that terrible. Besides, having to break his vows, sitting on the Iron Throne and finding out he's not Eddard's son would barely be a happy ending from Jon's perspective.

[ledlevee]

That's true. I could see it ending with an embittered Jon sitting on the iron throne, perhaps a shadow of his former self after warging to avoid death. I also wouldn't be suprised if the rest of Jon's story is told through the eyes of others rather than POV, aka UnCat. We'll see though. GRRM did say the ending would be bittersweet, so I take that to mean it's not all bad.

[ledlevee]

I also wouldn't be suprised if Jon turns out to be Azhor Ahai and ends up dying to save the world from the Others somehow.

[The Sunset King]

Any plot armor that exists will disappear once the final book is reached. No particular character must survive the last book even if the odds favor some of them making it out alive. It is possible that there could be a Stark king in the North or even king of the wildings rather than one on the Iron Throne.

[Landis]

I am of the camp that agrees that Daenerys will not sit on the Iron Throne by the end. But I don't think that this means she will die. I am nearly certain that the dragons will, but not Daenerys. I don't doubt that she will arrive in Westeros (eventually) but when she gets there, it will not fill the hole in her heart.

In my opinion, the only thing Daenerys has ever wanted is to go home. From the very beginning, that is what she has wanted. But Westeros is not what she is referring to.

I think perhaps the most telling moment of her story is the one prior to her wedding when she tells her brother this, and Viserys interprets "home" as meaning "Westeros," when she actually wished to go back to Illyrio's manse. Just prior, there is this passage:

"We will have it all back someday, sweet sister," he would promise her. Sometimes his hands shook when he talked about it. "The jewels and the silks, Dragonstone and King's Landing, the Iron Throne and the Seven Kingdoms, all they have taken from us, we will have it back." Viserys lived for that day. All the Daenerys wanted back was the big house with the red door, the lemon tree outside her window, the childhood she had never known.

Afterwards, while she is riding on the Dothraki Plains, we have this passage:

Dany rode close beside him. "Still," she said, "the common people are waiting for him. Magister Illyrio says they are sewing dragon banners and praying for Viserys to return from across the narrow sea to free them."

"The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends," Ser Jorah told her. "It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace." He gave a shrug. "They never are."

"What do you pray for, Ser Jorah?" she asked him.

"Home," he said. His voice was thick with longing.

"I pray for home too," she told him, believing it.

Ser Jorah laughed. "Look around you then, Khaleesi."

But it was not the plains Dany saw then. It was King's Landing and the great Red Keep that Aegon the Conqueror had built. It was Dragonstone where she had been born. In her mind's eye they burned with a thousand lights, a fire blazing in every window. In her mind's eye, all the doors were red.

Daenerys, of course, has never seen King's Landing, or the Red Keep, and she was too young to be able to remember Dragonstone. Daenerys' earliest memory is of the house with the red door, and that is what home for her is. This is the first time she styles Westeros as her home, she knows little or nothing about it. She imagines the doors as red because symbolically, that is what home is to her, not Westeros itself.

So my two cents: Daenerys will arrive in Westeros, the home of her brother, and find it ravaged by war. The Others will come, and she will fight them with her dragons, who will likely die, but she will survive the battle and be proclaimed a hero of the people. They will love her, and she will have saved them from the winter, giving them the long summer that Ser Jorah told her they pray for. She will then ascend to the Iron Throne, but sitting there, having lost all she has lost, but having regained all that her brother told her was important, she will still feel empty and unfulfilled, because this place is foreign and unknown to her: it is not her home. At this point, I believe she will abdicate, leaving Westeros to the rule of another (not to Jon, because like Daenerys, he wishes to be home as well), perhaps Aegon, whether he be Blackfyre or not, or maybe she will disband the Seven Kingdoms (freeing them, as it were). Daenerys will then return to Essos, where she built her first empire, where she is mother to her people, and where every house has a red door.

[Pliskin]

I think perhaps the most telling moment of her story is the one prior to her wedding when she tells her brother this, and Viserys interprets "home" as meaning "Westeros," when she actually wished to go back to Illyrio's manse.

Not Illyrio's manse, but her "home" in Braavos. Where they lived with Darry, the closest thing she got to a father.

[Landis]

Not Illyrio's manse, but her "home" in Braavos. Where they lived with Darry, the closest thing she got to a father.

"Please, please, Viserys, I don't want to, I want to go home."

"Home?" He kept his voice low, but she could hear the fury in his tone. "How are we to go home, sweet sister? They took our home from us!" He drew her into the shadows, out of sight, his fingers digging into her skin. "How are we to go home?" he repeated, meaning King's Landing, and Dragonstone, and all the realm they had lost.

Dany had only meant their rooms in Illyrio's estate, no true home surely, though all they had, but her brother did not want to hear that. There was no home there for him. Even the big house with the red door had not been home for him. His fingers dug hard into her arm, demanding and answer. "I don't know..." she said at last, her voice breaking. Tears welled in her eyes.

[Pliskin]

Oh, my bad. I'm sorry.

I thought that because she always considered that her real home was at Braavos.

[Landis]

I don't disagree with you, there is a reason why the house in Braavos comes up every time she talks about home.

[ThinkerX]

Hmmm...

Stannis's one and only offspring is afflicted with a disfiguring disease. Plus, Stannis himself, at best, is in a very desperate battle with his survival uncertain.

Dany is barren, or very likely so. Also, she has an ...aversion... to the really nasty things she would have to do in order to actually conquor Westeros. Note how she didn't bother with poisoning the wells outside of Mereen, or agree to drastic policing of that city. Westeros will be no different, and she will probably figure that out.

Aegon's closest advisor ('Griff') is dying. The other people around him are not really all that trustable.

Tommen is still parked on the Iron Throne, but pretty much all of the Lannisters with any real leadership ability are dead or fled. His mother will be lucky to escape with her own life after the end of Dance, and somehow I have no real difficulty imagining the Tyrells arranging a fatal 'accident' for him, especially given how beaten down the Kingsguard is.

No, I do not see Jon becoming King. I actually think he will be dang lucky if he survives the events of the next book. Epic battles tend to have epic casualties, and Martin does have a history of killing his characters - witness Ned Stark and his eldest son, along with Caitlin.

It is possible that Rickon could become the next Lord of Winterfell, and maybe even King in the North, but that is about it.

Thing is, there are serious problems or flaws with all of the remaining candidates. Also, this civil war has been absolutely devastating to Westeros overall. Plus there are other forces at work...like the Maesters.

I have a suspicion we are looking at some sort of 'Grand Council' in the last book, one that results in a radical restructuring of power, something like the 'Magna Carta', where the authority of the nobles, even royalty, is subject to legal restraint of some sort. (With maesters and priests harping on about the dangers of Mad Kings and spendthrifts to justify these changes). This Grand Council might pick Dany or Aegon or even let Tommen continue to sit the throne, but that thrones authority might not be quite as absolute as it once was.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Also, it seems like the dragons are invincible. Martin has painted them as invincible. He also painted Gregor Clegane and Sandor Clegane as invincible. So I say in Martin's world, dragons are not invincible. I wouldn't be suprised if the person you least expect finds a way to kill them through some form of treachery. And Dany has been painted as the one who's going to conquer Westeros since the beginning. What does that mean in Martin's world? She's probably not going to be the one to conquer Westeros. As a matter of fact, I think it's very likely that she will die, along with her dragons.

I agree with your assessment about the dragons and Dany. They've been built up to such an extent that they can't possibly meet those expectations. She's also been so built up as the inevitable benevolent conqueror that I think something twisted is in order for her — several people have suggested that she'll end up going Targ-mad.

[Lady Octarina]

Tommen is still parked on the Iron Throne, but pretty much all of the Lannisters with any real leadership ability are dead or fled. His mother will be lucky to escape with her own life after the end of Dance, and somehow I have no real difficulty imagining the Tyrells arranging a fatal 'accident' for him, especially given how beaten down the Kingsguard is.

I don't agree with all your points, but I really like how you developped them. Excet for Tommen. The Tyrells won't kill him before Margaery carries his child, otherwise she loses her claim to the Iron Throne. I think it would go to Myrcella, then, and they would never allow that to happen, since the girl is in Dorne and they wouldn't want to give the Martells that kind of power.

[Arkash]

I don't agree with all your points, but I really like how you developped them. Excet for Tommen. The Tyrells won't kill him before Margaery carries his child, otherwise she loses her claim to the Iron Throne. I think it would go to Myrcella, then, and they would never allow that to happen, since the girl is in Dorne and they wouldn't want to give the Martells that kind of power.

Myrcella is back from Dorne and older than Tommen... she'll be able to carry a child soon...

They can fataly injure Tommen and bethrow Myrcella to Garlan or Willas and still keep a place on the throne...

That is if they accept the Dornish laws of succession !

[Lady Octarina]

Myrcella is back from Dorne and older than Tommen... she'll be able to carry a child soon...

They can fataly injure Tommen and bethrow Myrcella to Garlan or Willas and still keep a place on the throne...

That is if they accept the Dornish laws of succession !

She's returned, is my memory that bad? lol

Willas, perhaps, but Garlan is already married. And I see no reason for them to kill Tommen anyway - Margaery has an enormous influence on him, it would be more likely they killed Cersei just in case.

[Seed]

Honestly at this point, it could be anyone. Sansa does seem like a good candidate: she's unlikely enough for her reign to be a big twist, and since Littlefinger's teaching her how to play the game of thrones, she'll be a competent enough ruler.

If Sansa ends up sitting on the Throne, I'll jump out the Moon Door.

[Arkash]

She's returned, is my memory that bad? lol

She's on her way back, now !

[MtnLion]

I don't agree with all your points, but I really like how you developped them. Excet for Tommen. The Tyrells won't kill him before Margaery carries his child, otherwise she loses her claim to the Iron Throne. I think it would go to Myrcella, then, and they would never allow that to happen, since the girl is in Dorne and they wouldn't want to give the Martells that kind of power.

After Tommen the throne rightfully passes to: Stannis. (If you follow the Baratheon line.) Tommen is a usurper, and the rightful heir would be Rhaegar's eldest surviving male child, then Aerys' eldest surviving male child. We seem to keep forgetting that the Iron Throne is a male position and cannot pass to a female, including Danaerys. Surprisingly, Stannis is somewhere in that line, too. I don't think that Stannis' inheritance rights will be the lie that Danaerys slays, but perhaps something sinister about Stannis, himself. (Casts no shadow.)