[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 4

[It Rhymes With Meek]

@Rockroi

Very perceptive. A couple of things:

On why Theon doesn't tell anyone about Bran and Rickon-- Well, I think he actually would end up hurting himself by claiming this, and he probably realizes it. Reason being, absolutely no one will believe him because of how self-serving it would seem-- especially because the only person who could confirm his story is the Bastard of Bolton himself. And since they wouldn't believe him, it'd put him in a worse place insofar as Stannis and everyone else would then think he's more than willing to crazily lie if it'll save his life.

On Stannis-- I definitely think that Stannis languishes when he doesn't have a concrete threat to set himself against-- stuck in the snow, he broods, but once you give him something to grab onto, like a traitor to deal with and enemies coming for him and he's immediately once again relentless, untiring and hard as iron.

[Melifeather]

@Rockroi, I think Theon protects "Arya's" true identity out of "honor", and didn't he only kill the crofter's children because it was "Reek's" (read Ramsay's) idea?

My hunch for Stannis is that he plans to pretend to be killed by Ramsay's forces in order to get inside Winterfell.

[Rockroi]

... and didn't he only kill the crofter's children because it was "Reek's" (read Ramsay's) idea?

Irrelevant. If Theon did the deed or ordered others than it does not matter where the malicious thought originated; only matters where it ended up.

[bemused]

Theon is now in the position of having no way of proving the murdered children were not Bran and Rickon. He has no way of knowing of the survival of Wex. He must have some sense of the fact that killing 2 children (and one or both of their parents ) to cover up Bran and Rickon's escape is hardly less damning..especially as B & R have not surfaced and might well be dead anyway.

He's suffering from guilt, and goes back and forth between trying to expiate himself to the Old Gods and the ghosts , and feeling he deserves to die, or at least that it's the best he can hope for. Even if the truth were known , would the Northmen think any better of him, for being so weak as to follow "Reek's" suggestions ? He still would be seen as betraying the Starks , for seizing WF in the first place.

However , if he is taken before the weirwood , even if there should be no Bran phenomena that others can discern , he may be moved to a confession / explanation that others would be in a position to decipher.

[Bloodraven's Eye]

(first time poster)

I don't think Theon will die at the hands of King Stannis. He is the last son of Pyke and by rights the Seastone Chair is his. My theory is that he will redeem himself by admitting that he never harmed Bran or Rickon, fighting in the Battle for the North alongside King Stannis and his northmen, going back to the iron islands to call another Kingsmoot, and as the iron born say "what is dead can never die but rise again harder and stronger." Once he has the iron born behind him he will help Stannis and who ever else shows up by then in the fight against the Others.

[alienarea]

Theon is now in the position of having no way of proving the murdered children were not Bran and Rickon. He has no way of knowing of the survival of Wex. He must have some sense of the fact that killing 2 children (and one or both of their parents ) to cover up Bran and Rickon's escape is hardly less damning..especially as B & R have not surfaced and might well be dead anyway.

He's suffering from guilt, and goes back and forth between trying to expiate himself to the Old Gods and the ghosts , and feeling he deserves to die, or at least that it's the best he can hope for. Even if the truth were known , would the Northmen think any better of him, for being so weak as to follow "Reek's" suggestions ? He still would be seen as betraying the Starks , for seizing WF in the first place.

However , if he is taken before the weirwood , even if there should be no Bran phenomena that others can discern , he may be moved to a confession / explanation that others would be in a position to decipher.

Theon is now in the position of having no way of proving the murdered children were not Bran and Rickon. He has no way of knowing of the survival of Wex. He must have some sense of the fact that killing 2 children (and one or both of their parents ) to cover up Bran and Rickon's escape is hardly less damning..especially as B & R have not surfaced and might well be dead anyway.

He's suffering from guilt, and goes back and forth between trying to expiate himself to the Old Gods and the ghosts , and feeling he deserves to die, or at least that it's the best he can hope for. Even if the truth were known , would the Northmen think any better of him, for being so weak as to follow "Reek's" suggestions ? He still would be seen as betraying the Starks , for seizing WF in the first place.

However , if he is taken before the weirwood , even if there should be no Bran phenomena that others can discern , he may be moved to a confession / explanation that others would be in a position to decipher.

Not sure how sane Theon's line of thought is by now, but since Stannis doesn't mention Bran and Rickon he must assume they got killed anyway.

[Eggplant Wizard]

It's not even debatable the best part of ADWD was the Reek chapters. I hope GRRM has some more magic in store for Theon, he's one of my favorite characters.

[Frey spy]

I dont know whether or it came up, i havent read all pages in the threads, but when i read about Stannis waiting on the frozen lake, my very first association was the Battle of the ice, aka: Battle of Lake Peipus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Ice). I think the inspiration is obvious, i just hope that in asoiaf the battle will have the same results, as the invaders (BOltons/Freys) will be defeated :)

[CladInShadows]

Forgive me if this has been speculated, as I have not read through all 4 threads, but we know that Stannis has chosen to spare Maester Tybald. We also know that he was in possession of ravens trained to fly to Winterfell.

Is it not possible then that Stannis could make use of this, and have Tybald send a letter back to Roose and Ramsey informing them that the Karstarks have successfully turned on Stannis' army (killed them in their sleep or something like that) in order to trick them into thinking that he is dead. In fact, the Boltens may not yet have heard back from the Freys and Manderlys which means that it could be claimed that they had joined up with the Karstarks too.

Is it possible that Ramsey's letter to Jon is not true, but not a trick either - it is Ramsey that has been tricked into thinking they are dead?

[Howlin' Reed]

There are several other details in the letter that would not explain, such as Ramsay's holding Stannis' sword, torturing Mance Rayder etc.

[Frey spy]

A possible trick by Stannis could involve killing the Freys, and using the captured ravens to hint that they defeated Stannis, and when they are heading back to Winterfell Stannis's men use Frey banners to get inside Winterfell, and bang, Winterfell is liberated.

[Rockroi]

There are several other details in the letter that would not explain, such as Ramsay's holding Stannis' sword, torturing Mance Rayder etc.

As far as the sword goes, its not beyond the pale that Stannis will make peace with Manderly and destroy the remainder of the Bolton Army. With that Stannis could march his army on Winterfell, but send ahead a Manderly or a turned Karstark complete with a tar'd head and Stannis own sword. That person could declare Stannis dead.

Independant of that Ramsey would have been trying to figure out how Reek escaped and who were the women with him; further WHAT THE FUCK happend dto "Arya Stark"? In a rage, Ramsey could be turning over every rock in the castle when he would discover Mance and his women.

And wth all that Ramsey would then write the letter full of rage and anger at Jon while he anticipates his father returning after this great victoryu. In fact, however, its STannis' men marching intoi the curtyard of Winterfell, preceaded by scores of MAnderly and Karstark men- men Ramsey would assume were loyal, but who are, in fact, KIng's Men.

[Melifeather]

Forgive me if this has been speculated, as I have not read through all 4 threads, but we know that Stannis has chosen to spare Maester Tybald. We also know that he was in possession of ravens trained to fly to Winterfell.

Is it not possible then that Stannis could make use of this, and have Tybald send a letter back to Roose and Ramsey informing them that the Karstarks have successfully turned on Stannis' army (killed them in their sleep or something like that) in order to trick them into thinking that he is dead. In fact, the Boltens may not yet have heard back from the Freys and Manderlys which means that it could be claimed that they had joined up with the Karstarks too.

Is it possible that Ramsey's letter to Jon is not true, but not a trick either - it is Ramsey that has been tricked into thinking they are dead?

I'm thinking similar thoughts along those lines. I am expecting a story line where Stannis fakes his death and uses the Karstark's identity to gain access inside Winterfell.

[WetHair]

I don't know if this has been mentioned before, but Mance and Mors are in the Arya rescue together.

The second that Theon and fake Arya land in the snow, Mors knows exactly who they are. There is no way for him to know that if he wasn't expecting this to happen. It should have been a rope they were climbing down but climbing or jumping he was waiting for them.

[Lord Varys]

Ramsay had already Mance as his women when Theon and Jeyne escaped.

They were caught, and as soon as the Bolton men started to slay the washerwomen they would have known that Abel was behind this whole thing. Thus it makes very much sense to assume that the Pink Letter is more of an immediate reaction to Theon's escape and Arya's loss than to Stannis's death. If the Boltons truly would have killed Stannis and slaughtered his whole host, they would not have written a letter to Castle Black. They would have sent no letter at all and instead would have gone to the Wall in person and with sufficient force to deal with the Night's Watch and Stannis's remaining troops and the wildlings.

The Pink Letter makes only sense as a desperate gamble. Both Ramsay and Roose are vexed about Arya's escape, and from Mance and/or some of the surviving washerwomen they know that Jon Snow and Melisandre were behind this whole thing. To harm or get to them the Boltons would need to trick Jon into doing something rash. And since they can't know anything about his recent alliance with Tormund, or the installation of the Magnar of Thenn as Lord Protector of Karhold, they have reason to assume that Jon might come to Winterfell in person after this letter. Ramsay played very cleverly at Jon's feelings as a bastard, after all, this is something he understands... And also, the revelation about Mance's survival has to be spread to the wildlings and the North as well. This could very well undermine Stannis.

If there are heads upon the battlements of Winterfell it would be wildling women who accompanied Mance. If Roose or Ramsay had found out about Manderly's betrayal and executed him, they would have mentioned it. Lastly, the whole thing about Lightbringer means nothing. Ramsay wants to provoke both Mel and Jon. How better than stating that you have Stannis's magic sword? Everybody knows about this sword.

So I honestly assume that Ramsay wrote that letter shortly after Aenys Frey got himself killed out there in the snow. Theon expects the Freys and Manderlys, and behind him Ramsay himself. And this makes sense. Roose himself will stay back behind in Winterfell. I'm quite sure Ramsay will not survive the coming battle with Stannis, but I also very much doubt that Roose himself would leave Winterfell to face Stannis personally. But it would also make little sense for him to rely only on the Manderlys and Freys. Ramsay's whole purpose is to keep the Northerners in line. And Roose would need somebody in the field to ensure that things happen as they are supposed to happen. He can rely on Karstark, he thinks, but this will not hinder the Manderlys and Freys to butcher each other instead of Stannis...

[Rockroi]

Here is something to consider; something that throws a small wrentch in my on theory:

Mance seems to openly hate Jon Snow.

If you re-read (as I am) the few Jon Snow chapters up to and including MAnce's reveal, you see quite clearly that Mance has a good deal of antiomosity towards Jon. First, there is the fight scene with "Rattleshirt"; Jon fights Rattleshirt who openly and clearly wishes to do some harm to Jon. He does not (the most open example of Mance not purposely harming Jon is when he says "If I had a dagger I'd take one of your eyes" when Mance clearly has a dagger). Otherwise, Ramsey is clearly trying to do harm- permenent harm -to Snow. Now, you could say that that was part of the cover; that Ramsey had to act like Rattleshirt. But if that were the case, why take the fight in the first place? That makes no sense; instead Mance- as Rattleshirt- clearly desires to fight Jon and try to damage him.

Sevond would be the reveal scene. when Mance is revealed its made clear that "Mance Rayder did not smile." (Martin, George R.R. (2011-07-12). A Dance with Dragons: A Song of Ice and Fire: Book Five (p. 418). Bantam. Kindle Edition.) This seems relevant; Mance has no warmpth or empathy with Snow nor wants any.

Why do I mention this? Well, if Mance somehow got the upper hand against Ramsey than maybe he did fake the letter and desires to throw salt at Snow and egg him on into a hopeless gamble. I will say this seems very unlikely given that Mance would eventually have to deal with Stannis actually being alive. But what if Mance is playing for confusion in an attempt to, possibly, escape notice? He can fake his own death, fake Stannis' defeat and make everyone on the Wall scamper after his lies, including Jon Snow whom he hates and Melisandre whom he wants to escape.

However, i Think this far less likley given the more open answer, namely that Ramsey Snow has been fed misinformation and is acting on lies. Junk in; junk out.

[Kaylee]

Here is something to consider; something that throws a small wrentch in my on theory:

Mance seems to openly hate Jon Snow.

Rattleshirt hated Jon Snow. Mance may just be playing his role.

If you re-read (as I am) the few Jon Snow chapters up to and including MAnce's reveal, you see quite clearly that Mance has a good deal of antiomosity towards Jon. First, there is the fight scene with "Rattleshirt"; Jon fights Rattleshirt who openly and clearly wishes to do some harm to Jon. He does not (the most open example of Mance not purposely harming Jon is when he says "If I had a dagger I'd take one of your eyes" when Mance clearly has a dagger). Otherwise, Ramsey is clearly trying to do harm- permenent harm -to Snow. Now, you could say that that was part of the cover; that Ramsey had to act like Rattleshirt. But if that were the case, why take the fight in the first place? That makes no sense; instead Mance- as Rattleshirt- clearly desires to fight Jon and try to damage him.

Mance doesn't try to damage him, he tries to beat him. If he was trying to permanently harm Jon... Jon would be permanently harmed. If not then, then by some other occasion.

I reread Jon's chapters too. There is absolutely nothing even suggesting Mance's true feelings about Jon. Just nothing.

Sevond would be the reveal scene. when Mance is revealed its made clear that "Mance Rayder did not smile." (Martin, George R.R. (2011-07-12). A Dance with Dragons: A Song of Ice and Fire: Book Five (p. 418). Bantam. Kindle Edition.) This seems relevant; Mance has no warmpth or empathy with Snow nor wants any.

Why do I mention this? Well, if Mance somehow got the upper hand against Ramsey than maybe he did fake the letter and desires to throw salt at Snow and egg him on into a hopeless gamble. I will say this seems very unlikely given that Mance would eventually have to deal with Stannis actually being alive. But what if Mance is playing for confusion in an attempt to, possibly, escape notice? He can fake his own death, fake Stannis' defeat and make everyone on the Wall scamper after his lies, including Jon Snow whom he hates and Melisandre whom he wants to escape.

But this would probably mean a disaster for the Free Folk. Right now their future depend on Jon Snow and Stannis.

However, i Think this far less likley given the more open answer, namely that Ramsey Snow has been fed misinformation and is acting on lies. Junk in; junk out.

I hope so...

[Graveflower138]

c-mon WINTER! I am ready for the whites, and the real battle between the white walkers and the others and all the evil that has been building up for 5 novels now..C-mon John Snow please dont be dead.

[Lord Varys]

Mance clearly is pissed off about how things turned out with Jon. He does not like him as much as Tormund does. But he respects him, and he respects Melisandre, in my opinion. The whole beating scene I actually read as some kind of lesson: Mance tried to show Jon that he is not as ready or as good a fighter as he thought he is.

Had Mance ill feelings toward Mance, he would not have risked his own life to free Jon's sister.

The interesting question is: Does Stannis know that he is alive? If not, what will he do when he finds out that Melisandre has betrayed him? And how will Stannis's Northmen react to this revelation? And what will Mance do if he gets alive (and more or less well) out of Ramsay's cage?

[RWHamel]

I think Ramsay sent his letter, after they received a letter by way of one of Tybald's ravens. I think that letter says that Stannis was defeated, but it's misinformation that Stannis sent to put the Bolton's of their guard.