The gift chapter and a clue regarding "Aegon/Young Griff"

[Lord Damian]

It has been stated that the male Blackfyres/Targaryen line has died out, so the sername is gone with it. however, girls survived. They have had offspring uncounted and undocumented because no one cared about the girls so long as all the males with direct line died out. Aegon/Young Griff is almost assured to be one. Dany is the last known true Targaryen, the Dragons she hatched are proof. the Stark kids have their companion DireWolves to prove who they are (ie Lord Wyman Manderly to Davos: We need the boy and the wolf to prove who he is) . As for Jon, he has the wolf and maybe if he lives, can connect with the dragons too, if he gets a chance.

[Giskard Reventlov]

Stannis's first choice of sellswords would be the Golden Company. They were founded by Bittersteel, "who swore to ond day put a son of Daemon Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. This to me is another clue that Aegon decends from the Blackfyre line. I have been and continue to be of the belief that Aegon will sit on the Iron throne. No for long, however.

I agree with your observations. Especially with Aegon being from Blackfyre line. Otherwise, his introduction this late in the game has "dallas & dynasty" soapy taste.

I suspect that he will not pass the "dragon test" and have fate smilar to young Martel when Danny returns (if he is still alive).

[CrypticWeirwood]

No, it’s only been stated that Daemon I Blackfyre has no direct male descendants through the male line. There may be other Targaryens through the male line via Bloodraven or Bittersteel. Also, we know for certain that both Egg and his brother Aerion had unnamed sons whose fate and history are unknown. They, too, would be through the male line.

The incident with Brown Ben Plumm is a foreshadowing of using dragon friendliness as a de facto DNA test à la mediæval. It will be used to prove that first Tyrion and eventually also Aegon both have enough of the dragon’s blood to be dragonriders themselves, completing the three heads of the dragon. It will be a long time before Jon ever meets a dragon, and his heritage won’t matter much by then.

[CrypticWeirwood]

I agree with your observations. Especially with Aegon being from Blackfyre line. Otherwise, his introduction this late in the game has "dallas & dynasty" soapy taste.

I suspect that he will not pass the "dragon test" and have fate smilar to young Martel when Danny returns (if he is still alive).

Oh don’t worry: Prince Aegon shall surely pass. Even Prince Quentyn should have passed, and would have if he hadn’t mistakenly tried to tame two dragons at once. And look at how little dragon blood that Quentyn had.

Or Brown Ben Plumm for that matter, whose blood was even more dilute. Remember how friendly the dragonlings were with him. Think back to when the Targaryen bloodline mixed in with the Plumms.

Surely by that measure Prince Aegon has plenty of the blood of the dragon, even if he is the descended through one of the Great Bastards.

It doesn’t matter.

[Giskard Reventlov]

He will surely have enough dragon blood but I suspect he will not able to tame them or ride them. Maybe the horn will have some role in it (though Aegon should be able to use the horn)

[Lord Damian]

Whatever happens with the dragon test, if there ever will be one. Aegon will not be the last one in the throne, even if there is still and Iron throne. I do not see how. I just think he is the explaination of the plotline for Varys, Illyrio and, yes this is gonna confuse people, Littlefinger as well. Littlefinger has been financed not by the Iron Bank, but also by Illyrio I think. I think Sansa will wed Aegon and he and maybe she will die soon thereafter.

[Kings Wood Outlaw]

Beware of the mummer dragon - Quiathe

[Faint]

Oh don’t worry: Prince Aegon shall surely pass . . .

Going by Moqorro's cryptic statement about a fake dragon, I'm more and more inclined to believe that the only Blackfyre in our midst is Varys, who is eunuch for that very reason. In my thinking, 'Aegon Targaryen' is simply the son of Illyrio and Serra, neither of them Blackfyres.

Aegon also fits in terribly with the "bride of fire" sequence in the prophecies at the House of the Undying.

Which, to get to the point, means I don't think he'll be passing the dragon test by any means. I imagine the scene will be quite tragic too, because he actually believes himself to be a dragon.

[Babeldygob]

I'm pretty sure that Aegon is a Blackfyre pretender at this point. I would really like him on the Iron Throne though.

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

I really don't see why everyone is so convinced that he's a pretender...

I mean why would Varys and Jon Connington lie? Connington especially? He's a man of honor and he's haunted by the guilt of the way he failed Rhaegar all those years ago.

I just don't see it. Unless Varys lied to Connington but I also don't see that happening either. Theres just no way Aegon is a pretender.

[CrypticWeirwood]

More importantly, why would Ashara lie? What’s in it for her?

[Faint]

I really don't see why everyone is so convinced that he's a pretender...

I mean why would Varys and Jon Connington lie? Connington especially? He's a man of honor and he's haunted by the guilt of the way he failed Rhaegar all those years ago.

I just don't see it. Unless Varys lied to Connington but I also don't see that happening either. Theres just no way Aegon is a pretender.

Neither Jon Connington nor Lemore know the truth of Aegon's parentage. In the former's case, he's so desperate to believe Aegon is Aegon Targaryen VI that he'd probably believe as much even if Aegon had black hair and brown eyes. As you say, he is haunted by the guilt he feels for what he see as failing Rhaegar all those years ago. And, for that very reason, he'd do anything or believe anyone if it would help to assuage that guilt.

As for you not thinking that Varys would lie to Jon Connington . . . well, why ever not? He's lied to everybody else, constantly and repeatedly, for years and years.

If you're looking to know who knows about Aegon's true heritage, the list begins and ends with Illyrio and Varys. No one else.

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

Neither Jon Connington nor Lemore know the truth of Aegon's parentage. In the former's case, he's so desperate to believe Aegon is Aegon Targaryen VI that he'd probably believe as much even if Aegon had black hair and brown eyes. As you say, he is haunted by the guilt he feels for what he see as failing Rhaegar all those years ago. And, for that very reason, he'd do anything or believe anyone if it would help to assuage that guilt.

As for you not thinking that Varys would lie to Jon Connington . . . well, why ever not? He's lied to everybody else, constantly and repeatedly, for years and years.

If you're looking to know who knows about Aegon's true heritage, the list begins and ends with Illyrio and Varys. No one else.

But given Varys actions at the end of A Dance With Dragons your theory that Varys lied just doesn't add up.

Again whats the motivating factor? If all Varys is out for is to save his own butt then he wouldn't really care who sits on the Iron Throne. After all Tommen is not the monster Joffrey was. And with Ser Kevan there slowly binding up the alliance between House Tyrell and House Lannister there is no reason for him to interfere and cause the chaos that will undoubtedly occur in the next book.

As for Connington while you have a point the book takes great care to point out Aegon's eyes being purple. Not as purple as Rhaegars but that can be due to Elia of Dorne who was his mother after all. And Tyrion's interactions and his thoughts during his chapters also make me believe that he is who they say he is. Tyrion points out how good looking Young Griff and other factors (his command to Tyrion to pick up all the "cyvannse" pieces after he loses to him for example).

Maybe I'm just being naive but I think this is one of those rare instances where Martin isn't throwing some kinda wicked curveball at us. The more important question will be if Aegon will be alive by the end of the next book....thats what I'm curious to see. If I'm wrong though and this is all some elaborate lie on Varys part then I'll be quite scandalized by the eunuch...haha

[lojzelote]

The Blackfyres are descended from a bastard, Daemon Blackfyre; he was ever considered a candidate only because Daeron, the legitimate Targayren heir, was a wise and learned scholar who wasn´t good at crushing people´s brains with big chuncks or iron, and the westerosi, cunning and forward-minded as they are :thumbsdown: , decided that was beyond all bearing: They wanted a good jouster and swordfighter as king, even if Daeron was a bastard. :dunno:

Legitimized bastard. Just to be precise. And some lords viewed him as his father´s chosen heir because he was given the ancestral Targaryen sword, Blackfyre.

I don´t know - did the rumours about Daeron´s unsure paternity began already during Aegon´s life, or was it purely Blackfyre propaganda which started after his death? If the first case is true, then Aegon was in interesting position: pass the rule to the bookish, geekish, unpopular son, whose paternity he doubted, or to his flashy, martial and more popular bastard, whose father´s identity was never in question? Personally, I happen to think that the second scenario is true and that Aegon the Unworthy had his last laugh on his death bed, knowing that he pitted his sons against each other. But I can see where the Daemon´s claim came from - I mean, the legitimization and Blackfyre is a lot if it was more meant just to insure his bastard son´s good future life. I´m sure he must have known what will happen. From the little what we know of Aegon IV, he was highly irresponsible, greedy individual, who never cared for anything but his own selfish desires. Certainly not a man who would care for his bastards´happiness.

Otherwise, I agree. The Westerosi have poor standards for their kings. What´s more, Daeron II was probably one of the best, his father be damned.

...................................................................................................................................................................

I read only the first page of the thread, but I´d like to say I agree with OP. The Blackfyres come up little too often not to play a part in the story and we have no other candidate than "Young Griff".

[Winterfell is Burning]

But given Varys actions at the end of A Dance With Dragons your theory that Varys lied just doesn't add up.

Again whats the motivating factor? If all Varys is out for is to save his own butt then he wouldn't really care who sits on the Iron Throne. After all Tommen is not the monster Joffrey was. And with Ser Kevan there slowly binding up the alliance between House Tyrell and House Lannister there is no reason for him to interfere and cause the chaos that will undoubtedly occur in the next book.

Yes, and the fact that he did all that shows that...peace in the realm IS NOT his first priority.

If Aegon is the real deal, explain to me why:

a) Elia would give her child to this eunuch she has no reason to trust- indeed, he only worked to drive Aerys madder?

b If she didn't give it, how come Elia did not notice her son was exchanged?

c) If Aegon is the real deal, how come Doran doesn't know? Because he would both be the most interested and reliable partner, and because he and Oberyn would be the only ones, if any, that could convince Elia to give the child away. What would be Varys reason for it? No one in ASOIAF world has been shown to be more cautious and secretive than Doran, so he wouldn't be a problem.

Again, Aegon being the real deal does not make sense the more you think about it.

[Miriamele]

Yes, and the fact that he did all that shows that...peace in the realm IS NOT his first priority.

If Aegon is the real deal, explain to me why:

a) Elia would give her child to this eunuch she has no reason to trust- indeed, he only worked to drive Aerys madder?

Why did Cat release Jaime? Because she was desperate. Maybe Elia was too. Anyway it was typical to split up the heirs to keep them safe. Just as they did with Bran and Rickon.

I'm not saying he is definitly the real deal, just that it is possible.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Legitimized bastard. Just to be precise. And some lords viewed him as his father’s chosen heir because he was given the ancestral Targaryen sword, Blackfyre.

That one sure didn’t work out very well, now did it? I have no idea what Aegon thought he was doing!

O what’s the rhyme to Blackfyre?

Ken ye the rhyme to Blackfyre?

Unworthy Aegon gave his son

The sword his hopes to backfire.

The king across the water bides

Not long ere home again he rides

In glory till at

Redgrass Field

A weirwood arrow fate decides.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Again, Aegon being the real deal does not make sense the more you think about it.

I do agree that Aegon’s being Rhaegar’s swapped-baby son makes less sense than that he’s a Blackfyre plant unbeknownst even to himself. The material about the Blackfyres that Martin read from but which he later removed from Dance before publication makes this even more likely.

Plus Mormont’s raven (probably the skin du jour of everyone’s favorite greenseer, Bloodraven) called Jon, “King”, which means Aegon can’t be ahead of Jon in the pecking order, since if there’s one thing that birds always know, it’s pecking order. ;}

My problem is that I can’t figure out what Ned told Ashara to get her to give up her life as a high lady and to go into exile incognita as Lady Lemore. If Aegon didn’t pop up for a couple years after that, what was Ashara’s angle all along? We’re missing something important. I wish I knew what it was.

[Ferrous]

Yes, and the fact that he did all that shows that...peace in the realm IS NOT his first priority.

If Aegon is the real deal, explain to me why

a) Elia would give her child to this eunuch she has no reason to trust- indeed, he only worked to drive Aerys madder?

b If she didn't give it, how come Elia did not notice her son was exchanged?

c) If Aegon is the real deal, how come Doran doesn't know? Because he would both be the most interested and reliable partner, and because he and Oberyn would be the only ones, if any, that could convince Elia to give the child away. What would be Varys reason for it? No one in ASOIAF world has been shown to be more cautious and secretive than Doran, so he wouldn't be a problem.

Again, Aegon being the real deal does not make sense the more you think about it.

You're making the Historian's fallacy. Just because we know that Varys doesn't care about the peace of the realm and that he was feeding Aery's paronia, it does not mean that Elia or anyone else knew that at the time.

In fact it is almost certain that she didn't know, because if it were widespread knowledge then Varys would have been killed.

Thus Elia has no reason to distrust Varys. It is also relatively logical to expect that her son would have been killed so she had very good reasons to make the decision to swap babies.

If such a decision was made shortly after Elia heard about Rhaegar's death at the trident, that gives Varys time to swap the babies whilst prevents Elia from telling Doran. Sending a raven to Doran would be to too dangerous as ravens can be interception.

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

Varys does care about peace in the realm.

Like he told Ned Stark in the dungeon he doesn't care whos king so long as there is peace.

He clearly saw how mad Aerys was becoming and thats why he ultimately supported Roberts Rebellion by convincing him to open the gates.

And why wouldn't Elia trust Varys if she was desperate to save her son?