Tower of Joy Why were the kingsguard at the Tower of Joy?

[Belandra Waters]

Ok, big misunderstanding. I didn't say the trip from Winterfell to King's Landing took two weeks in the wheelhouse. The trip from the Trident battlefield, where the confrontation between Joffrey and Arya (with an assist from Nymeria,) to King's Landing takes a fortnight. Here's the quote.

Sorry...my misunderstanding! That helps establish Ned's time from the Trident to KL.

Estimates of how long it takes Ned and his troops to travel from King's Landing to relieve the the siege at Storm's End are about one month or so, and it is likely it takes Ned anywhere from a week to two weeks to get his fast traveling party of seven riders to the Tower of Joy from Storm's End. Lots of discussion in old threads about these estimates, but those are fairly good guesstimates.

Using the scale of the Wall which is 1"=300 miles, SE looks to be about 300 miles from KL. SE to the ToJ measures 600 miles. The best time that can be made by experienced riders and well-conditioned horses is 30 miles a day. The horses can only maintain that speed over a few days' travel at best. Unless they're picking up fresh mounts along the way, we have a travel time of at least 3 weeks from SE to the ToJ. Add another week from KL to SE and you still have a month for the news of the sack and deaths to reach the KG at the ToJ.

My thinking was more concerned with the KG at the ToJ and what made them retain their post IF they knew of the news from the north and Jon has not yet been born? Then one of them should have at least left for Dragonstone. IF Aegon is stashed at the ToJ, then they should be exactly where they are and the timing of Jon's birth becomes less signifcant.

Very likely, I am missing something here, so would appreciate your insight!

[Lonin]

As I mentioned, I dont think the "Aegon in ToJ" is supported by the books.... but, it does give me another topic to think about in my current reread of the novels. :drunk:

The "Aegon in ToJ" has brought up some interesting viewpoints, and a good read, I dont agree with all of them, but thats not unusual :devil:

[Dragonfish]

Dragonfish, further on your point above. I think it proves Ned thinks Aegon died in King's Landing. It doesn't prove that Aegon wasn't at the Tower when Ned got there. Only that, if he was, Ned didn't know it was Aegon. Which brings us to Wylla's role in all of this. For the sake of argument, let's suppose Ned arrives, fights the battle with the Kingsguard, finds his sister dying, and then finds Wylla with two children in her care. One newborn infant, one about a year old who she claims is her son. Ned wouldn't necessarily think twice about a wet nurse for Lyanna's child also having a baby of her own at the breast. If Wylla keeps the secret, and any others who are at the tower when Ned arrives and are still living do so as well, then we have a situation where Ned could find Aegon, and not knowing his identity bring him to Starfall along with Jon, Wylla, and Howland Reed. If true, it would explain the Kingsguard trio's actions without necessitating a marriage between Lyanna and Rhaegar. Not that I've changed my mind. I still think it is most likely the case that Lyanna and Rhaegar married, but other factors enter into that belief (Lyanna's character, the fact I believe they loved each other as shown by a variety of clues, etc. etc.) I'm just trying to figure out if we can explain the presence of the trio in another way that is believable and likely. I don't think we can rule out Aegon's presence there just yet.

These are good points, but they raise another question in my mind: why wouldn't Ned deduce who Aegon was, given the Kingsguard's presence at the ToJ? As far as I can tell, there are two explanations: 1) Jon was also legitimate, so Ned figured that was reason enough for their presence; 2) Ned doesn't think it unusual for the Kingsguard to continue guarding the tower and refuse to go to Viserys. If the former is right, then my main point is proved. If the latter is right, then it undermines the argument we're all relying on to demonstrate that Aegon and/or a legitimate Jon were in the tower. In other words, it seems that this line of argument leads to the conclusion that we're either both right or both wrong.

[SFDanny]

Sorry...my misunderstanding! That helps establish Ned's time from the Trident to KL.

Using the scale of the Wall which is 1"=300 miles, SE looks to be about 300 miles from KL. SE to the ToJ measures 600 miles. The best time that can be made by experienced riders and well-conditioned horses is 30 miles a day. The horses can only maintain that speed over a few days' travel at best. Unless they're picking up fresh mounts along the way, we have a travel time of at least 3 weeks from SE to the ToJ. Add another week from KL to SE and you still have a month for the news of the sack and deaths to reach the KG at the ToJ.

My thinking was more concerned with the KG at the ToJ and what made them retain their post IF they knew of the news from the north and Jon has not yet been born? Then one of them should have at least left for Dragonstone. IF Aegon is stashed at the ToJ, then they should be exactly where they are and the timing of Jon's birth becomes less signifcant.

Very likely, I am missing something here, so would appreciate your insight!

First, read this guide by Martin to the subject of distances in his world.

[How big is Westeros? Is it the size of Europe, or even larger?]

I have deliberately tried to be vague about such things, so I don't have obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on the map and telling me Ned couldn't get from X to Y in the time I say he did.

However, if you really must know, you can figure out the distances for yourself. The Wall is a hundred leagues long. A league is three miles. Go from there.

But if you turn up any mistakes in travel times by using that measure, let it be your secret.

Nonetheless, we all are obsessive fans or we would not be on this website, so we all at sometime break out the ruler and try to figure out the distances from X to Y and if Ned could really have traveled there in such and such a time. So, my advice, for whatever it is worth, is use this stuff only as very broad guidelines and understand any attempt to hold Martin to real world travel times in his story is bound to failure. I'd also do a search for threads on this topic because there are people here who have done tremendous work already on trying to figure this stuff out (Ran among others) and they are better equipped to answer some of these questions. If I get some more time, I'll try to get you a link myself to some of the threads, but I'm running out the door.

Second, Jon is born around the time of the sack of King's Landing to a month or so after. This isn't tied to any distance needed to be traveled, but to Martin's remarks about Jon's birth relative to Dany's - it being "eight or nine months" before. So what we are talking about is, given a significant "fudge factor" of a few weeks, Ned showing up somewhere between a month after Jon is born to about the time of his birth. I think travel time from King's Landing to Storm's End to the Tower of Joy of about six weeks to two months fits fairly well within that timeframe. Sorry, got to go, but I'll try to get back to you -- and to you Dragonfish as well -- later this evening. Hope that helps.

[Belandra Waters]

These are good points, but they raise another question in my mind: why wouldn't Ned deduce who Aegon was, given the Kingsguard's presence at the ToJ? As far as I can tell, there are two explanations: 1) Jon was also legitimate, so Ned figured that was reason enough for their presence; 2) Ned doesn't think it unusual for the Kingsguard to continue guarding the tower and refuse to go to Viserys. If the former is right, then my main point is proved. If the latter is right, then it undermines the argument we're all relying on to demonstrate that Aegon and/or a legitimate Jon were in the tower. In other words, it seems that this line of argument leads to the conclusion that we're either both right or both wrong.

Doesn't the answer to this ultimately lie with what the KG knew at the point of Ned's arrival? I see three possibilities here:

• The KG is unaware of the news from the north and does not know that Rhaegar and Aerys are both dead. They do not know that Viserys has been taken to Dragonstone. They are awaiting the birth of Lyanna's baby, as per Rhaegar's instructions, and if it's a boy, will continue to stand their post and guard the newborn heir. In any case, with Ned arriving and informing them of the events, they do not at this point seem to feel their duty is to go to Dragonstone, so there is someone in the Tower that they feel they must protect. Perhaps Jon has just been born, and that might explain their reason for not sending one of their own to Dragonstone. I would think this means there can only be a matter of hours though between Jon's birth and Ned's arrival, which is problematic because it doesn't allow enough time for Lyanna to be dying of puerperal fever, as most speculate.
  

• The KG does know of the news from the north, but Jon has already been born. That moves the timeline for the birth up a month or so before Ned's arrival, Jon has to have been born at the time of, or very soon after, the sack of KL. It relieves the KG of their imperative to send someone to Dragonstone. It again, though, is problematic as far as Lyanna goes. It's almost impossible that she has been hemorrhaging and afflicted with puerperal fever for 6 weeks or so, until Ned finds her. Her delivery and subsequent death require those events to be more closely linked in time.
  

• The third possibility is that Aegon is at the ToJ and that is whom the KG is protecting. It looks after the problem of the timeline concerning Jon's birth, the KG receiving the news from the north, Ned's arrival, and Lyanna's succumbing to whatever is afflicting her. Wylla is a good candidate for the wetnurse and could certainly pass off Aegon as hers. It does no harm to the R+L=J theory.
  

Does it really matter if Ned figures out the identity of Aegon or not? I think SFDanny has explained the later thoughts of Ned to my satisfaction, at least.

[Belandra Waters]

First, read this guide by Martin to the subject of distances in his world.

Nonetheless, we all are obsessive fans or we would not be on this website, so we all at sometime break out the ruler and try to figure out the distances from X to Y and if Ned could really have traveled there in such and such a time. So, my advice, for whatever it is worth, is use this stuff only as very broad guidelines and understand any attempt to hold Martin to real world travel times in his story is bound to failure. I'd also do a search for threads on this topic because there are people here who have done tremendous work already on trying to figure this stuff out (Ran among others) and they are better equipped to answer some of these questions. If I get some more time, I'll try to get you a link myself to some of the threads, but I'm running out the door.

Second, Jon is born around the time of the sack of King's Landing to a month or so after. This isn't tied to any distance needed to be traveled, but to Martin's remarks about Jon's birth relative to Dany's - it being "eight or nine months" before. So what we are talking about is, given a significant "fudge factor" of a few weeks, Ned showing up somewhere between a month after Jon is born to about the time of his birth. I think travel time from King's Landing to Storm's End to the Tower of Joy of about six weeks to two months fits fairly well within that timeframe. Sorry, got to go, but I'll try to get back to you -- and to you Dragonfish as well -- later this evening. Hope that helps.

Thank you! I can look up the threads, no need for you to spend your time doing that! I will ask if I need help. :)

[Dragonfish]

Doesn't the answer to this ultimately lie with what the KG knew at the point of Ned's arrival?

Sure, but their reactions to the news Ned gives them betrays no hint of surprise, which implies that they knew ahead of time. And as you point out, their insistence that going to Viserys would be "fleeing," even after finding out about the Sack, implies that they still believe their duty requires them to stay.

The KG does know of the news from the north, but Jon has already been born. That moves the timeline for the birth up a month or so before Ned's arrival, Jon has to have been born at the time of, or very soon after, the sack of KL.

I'm a bit confused as to how you reach this conclusion. Why should the Kingsguard knowing about the Sack suggest that Jon was born a month before Ned's arrival at the tower?

[Ygrain]

I'm a bit confused as to how you reach this conclusion. Why should the Kingsguard knowing about the Sack suggest that Jon was born a month before Ned's arrival at the tower?

This.

The news from KL most probably reached them with considerable delay - no direct raven mail, since that would require a raven brought up at ToJ be sent to KL prior that. Ravens could be sent to Starfall at best, or even to Sunspear, and the news spread only from there. The KG may have learned only quite shortly before Ned's arrival.

[MtnLion]

Sure, but their reactions to the news Ned gives them betrays no hint of surprise, which implies that they knew ahead of time. And as you point out, their insistence that going to Viserys would be "fleeing," even after finding out about the Sack, implies that they still believe their duty requires them to stay. I'm a bit confused as to how you reach this conclusion. Why should the Kingsguard knowing about the Sack suggest that Jon was born a month before Ned's arrival at the tower?

This. The news from KL most probably reached them with considerable delay - no direct raven mail, since that would require a raven brought up at ToJ be sent to KL prior that. Ravens could be sent to Starfall at best, or even to Sunspear, and the news spread only from there. The KG may have learned only quite shortly before Ned's arrival.

I need to agree with Dragonfish, why does it mean that Jon was born a month before Ned's arrival at the Tower of Joy. Or, conversely, why the Kingsguard being in the dark means that Jon was just born within a day or two. Not having news from the outside world at the Tower of Joy should not be surprising, since it was merely a watchtower, and probably had facilities for sending ravens, but few ravens ever trained to home there. Whatever news that Tower of Joy received was probably word of mouth from someone that took the time to travel up from Starfall, etc. I think, though that the Hightower in Old Town will know about things that occurred at the Tower of Joy. Ashara at Starfall is a nother point of contact that hte Kingsguard may have used in their failed attempt to take Lyanna and child to safety. They waited to see if Lyanna would recover before attempting to travel with their king, and she never did. That froze them into a defense of the Tower of Joy.

[corbon]

I'm a bit confused as to how you reach this conclusion. Why should the Kingsguard knowing about the Sack suggest that Jon was born a month before Ned's arrival at the tower?

I guess because she either doesn't believe, or hasn't heard, that the histrorical standard in similar cass was to wait for the birth of the baby and no one is king until the baby sex in confirmed. Apparently in one case it was 8 months with no King in Spain or something like that, while they waited to see the sex of the baby.

Since in nearly every other way Kingship in Westeros seems to follow the same rules as those royal families in our world, this means that if Lyanna is married and pregnant then Viserys is still not King - no one at all is until the baby is born. So they KG are not required to send one of their member to Viserys. They could do so, but they don't have to keep their own rules.

[Belandra Waters]

Sure, but their reactions to the news Ned gives them betrays no hint of surprise, which implies that they knew ahead of time. And as you point out, their insistence that going to Viserys would be "fleeing," even after finding out about the Sack, implies that they still believe their duty requires them to stay.

I'm a bit confused as to how you reach this conclusion. Why should the Kingsguard knowing about the Sack suggest that Jon was born a month before Ned's arrival at the tower?

Sorry for not being clearer in my post. If the KG is aware that the sack has happened, that Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon are all dead, and they have no baby to defend at the ToJ, they are bound by duty to send one of their own to be with Viserys. I'm saying that Jon, therefore, must be born at or around the time of the sack, a month or so before Ned arrives, in order to justify them staying at the ToJ instead of deploying at least one of the three to Dragonstone.

I don't know how quickly the news would reach them, or if a raven would be sent, but I have dated the necessity of Jon's birth to the time of the sack because for all intents and purposes, Viserys is the heir at that moment.

The duty to protect the king, would supercede any order given by their dead Crown Prince.

Which brings another question to mind: if Viserys actually becomes the heir at the time of Aegon's murder can that be taken back if a child is born posthumously to the dead Crown Prince?

This is all based on the assumption that Aegon was actually killed. If he wasn't and is at the ToJ, then none of this matters.

Okay, let me have it...

[Dragonfish]

I don't know how quickly the news would reach them, or if a raven would be sent, but I have dated the necessity of Jon's birth to the time of the sack because for all intents and purposes, Viserys is the heir at that moment.

I think you're glossing over the bold portion. As Ygrain notes above, there was in all likelihood a gap between the Trident/Sack and the Kingsguard finding out about it. This would allow Jon to be born at a later date.

[Belandra Waters]

Okay, so I read through all the posts and what you're saying is that Viserys goes unprotected and is not considered the heir until Lyanna's baby is born? If that's true, then it doesn't matter about the timing of Jon's birth, obviously.

[Belandra Waters]

I think you're glossing over the bold portion. As Ygrain notes above, there was in all likelihood a gap between the Trident/Sack and the Kingsguard finding out about it. This would allow Jon to be born at a later date.

Yes, there is mostly likely a gap, but how long? I have no idea how long it takes a raven to fly from point A to point B and where they're sent to and from, I've tried to make some sense out it from the books but have failed to do so at this point. I accept the informed opinions of my fellow posters on this.

[corbon]

Yes, there is mostly likely a gap, but how long? I have no idea how long it takes a raven to fly from point A to point B and where they're sent to and from, I've tried to make some sense out it from the books but have failed to do so at this point. I accept the informed opinions of my fellow posters on this.

We have no idea. We simply don't know where they are getting their news from.

Our best guess is Starfall, since that is the only place we know if that has a strong chance of being considered totally loyal to Rhaegar over Aerys (or at least some people there).

My best guess is that when Robert is crowned Ravens go everywhere that Ravens go, along with criers and all other forms of communication (and those other forms spread out from 'raven locations' as well), informing the realm that Aerys, Rhaegar, Aegon and possibly others are dead, and Robert I Baratheon has been Crowned the new King of Westeros. I think probably Ashara knows that Arthur at least and maybe more is at ToJ and she sends word to him, which would more likely be personal or courier than indirect, for security reasons.

So you have that first week or so when things are still getting sorted out until Fat Boab (I wonder if anyone will get that reference without a search?) gets crowned and Ned storms off, then a day or so for Ravens to get to Starfall, then the time for a fast horse(s) from Starfall to ToJ before the KG can hear the news. Probably. As best I can guess.

Not that it matters a lot, as you've figured out in #193.

[The Dragon has three heads]

Yes, there is mostly likely a gap, but how long? I have no idea how long it takes a raven to fly from point A to point B and where they're sent to and from, I've tried to make some sense out it from the books but have failed to do so at this point. I accept the informed opinions of my fellow posters on this.

Just like travel times, I believe this is vague on purpose.

[Twinslayer]

Another quick question. I am pretty sure there is a passage that directly confirms that Lyanna was at the Tower of Joy when Ned got there but I can't find it. Can anyone help with this?

I have the end of Ned's milk of the poppy dream in AGOT where he thinks he hears Lyanna saying his name during the fight with the KG but it turns out to be Vayon Poole. But I think there is better confirmation somewhere else. I thought it was in the books but maybe it is in an SSM.

Thanks in advance.

[Lonin]

I think some posters are referring to "Posthumous Birth" which does have some applicability to succession issues. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posthumous_birth

I'm not exactly sure how the concept would be applied in Westeros, but it has happened in RL.

[corbon]

Another quick question. I am pretty sure there is a passage that directly confirms that Lyanna was at the Tower of Joy when Ned got there but I can't find it. Can anyone help with this?

I have the end of Ned's milk of the poppy dream in AGOT where he thinks he hears Lyanna saying his name during the fight with the KG but it turns out to be Vayon Poole. But I think there is better confirmation somewhere else. I thought it was in the books but maybe it is in an SSM.

Thanks in advance.

Try Chapter 4.

[James Arryn]

I guess because she either doesn't believe, or hasn't heard, that the histrorical standard in similar cass was to wait for the birth of the baby and no one is king until the baby sex in confirmed. Apparently in one case it was 8 months with no King in Spain or something like that, while they waited to see the sex of the baby.

Since in nearly every other way Kingship in Westeros seems to follow the same rules as those royal families in our world, this means that if Lyanna is married and pregnant then Viserys is still not King - no one at all is until the baby is born. So they KG are not required to send one of their member to Viserys. They could do so, but they don't have to keep their own rules.

Yeah, the Classical example is with regards to divide of the Diadocci; about half wanting to crown Alexander's (probably mentally stunted) half brother, the other wanting to wait until his child was born to see its gender, and agreeing (sort of) to a conditional regency for the former to be supplanted if the latter (as actually happend) turned out male.

Needless to say it didn't end well.