Learning to Lead II: The Wrath of the Decision Makers? A re-read project of the Daenerys and Jon chapters from ADWD

[Winterfellian]

This is a good point, but I'm not sure I can say I agree with it. I just don't think there's anything Jon can do or any argument Jon can make to change these peoples mind's. Ill go more into this now with my own analysis.

Like you, I don't think there is much Jon could have done to change Marsh's mind but the mistake I perceive doesn't rely on that fact. If we look back at some of his chapters we know that Jon mistrusted both Slynt and Thorne and considered both men dangerous. In great part because he was aware of both men's hatred toward him yet he never for a moment stop to think that Marsh will be dangerous as well. Jon's perceiving Thorne's and Slynts personal feelings for him helped him to keep his guard up when he was with them. Like with Marsh, there probably was nothing he could say to either of them that could make them like him but the awareness of their hatred protected him in a way, because he never underestimated them and this is the mistake I feel he's doing with Marsh.

Jon realizes he's a very prejudiced person but doesn't quite grasp that Marsh's prejudice goes beyond ignorance; it is fueled by a hatred probably similar as the one Thorne and Slynt had for Jon. Not realizing this Jon isn't capable of analyzing what hate and fear can do to a man as weak as Marsh and therefore never expected Marsh's treason. Again, I don't think there was anything Jon could to to sway him; but by being aware of the reasoning behind some of Marsh's actions and views could have helped to at least keep his shield up around Marsh.

@Winterfellian

Like your prejudice and hate observations. On the survival instinct front, wasn't Marsh injured fighting Wildlings at the bridge? Is that the only time he has ever been in combat his entire life?

Thanks!

Yes, he was injured. I don't think there is evidence of Marsh doing actually something to defend the wall prior to this experience. Following my observations above, I believe this is a turning point for Marsh. My theory is that before this his prejudiced views were fueled mostly by ignorance and fear but after his injury and witnessing the deaths of many of his men ignorance was slowly replaced by hatred. Not even when Jon appealed to his feelings of self preservation (for me, the best course of action available to him) Marsh was able to admit the wildings as allies.

Again, hatred and fear can drive a much stronger man than Marsh into deep despair and leave him liable to commit terrible acts fueled by his feelings of desperation in order to preserve the world as he knows it rather than allowed for changes for the sake of progress or even survival.

[Lummel]

. . . Dany seems to implicitly consider Daario a great warrior. That he's good at killing is supposedly his only great skill. She thinks about how ten men could attack him, ten "would-be heroes", and five would die. But should readers assume she's correct? ...

One of the major problems Dany faces again and again is her inability to fully commit to any single course of action...

Hmm. I agree on Daario. I think he killed his fellow captains of the Stormcrows when they were drunk. There are old sellswords and bold sellswords, but no old, bold sellswords as someone says at some point in ASOIAF. Plumm is the old sellsword and Daario the bold. He's the man who seizes opportunities and takes advantage of them right up until someone kills him. So did he kill those men? Maybe, but it would be equally in character just to take the credit for it and certainly one can believe he'd boast of bedding the dragon Queen. Very aptly characterised as Daenerys' Id, all those basic drives with nothing to hold him in check.

On commitment I disagree. Surely Daenerys' problem is that she has completely over-committed to the idea of ruling Meereen to the point that she is doing things like marry Hizdahr and allow the reintroduction of slavery which could cause problems for her in Westeros. The original idea in ASOS was to rule in Meereen in order to learn how to lead in Westeros but she is missing her own point that ruling in Meereen was meant to be a means to an end, not an end in itself. (Though that does raise the ethical issue of if it is right to use a civilisation as a test bed for ruling). Here though we see her about to be bound by marriage to Meereen which is fairly complete as far as commitment goes.

What I appreciate about her storyline is how effectively she is trapped by the Meereenesse elite, despite her raw destructive power, into doing what they want all because she doesn't want to be the story book monster. Of course the end result is monstrous for the masses of people who believed in her as their saviour from slavery.

...this chapter has some strong "Corn King" allusions as Lummel mentioned is his summary. My intuitive feel for that theory is just off so I skipped it, but the references are definitely there.

This discussion is more suited to Jon XIII, so I am running the risk of committing the sin of anticipating future chapters (and we all know that this is one of those really bad sins, were they have an especially bad hell reserved for you) by discussing this...but, I don't know what your intuitive feel for it however I would take two things from it.

Firstly death and resurrection. With that death in particular being symbolic, necessary and possibly having a spiritual component. Resurrection is interesting in that we know of two types of in book resurrection so far - as a wight with glowing blue eyes or as an Undead servant of R'hllor both of which would be very different directions for Jon to develop into and would have all kinds of repercussions for him as a leader.

The Corn King so far hasn't appeared as part of the in-story mythology and that idea of cyclical resurrection plus that his storyline will end in Jon XIII with betrayal by his apostles (here seen sharing a last meal with him) seems to point us away from from those in-story options for resurrection and suggest something bigger - rebirth as Azor Ahai perhaps who iirc conquers death?

The other thing is that Mormont's Raven first calls Jon King already way back in AGOT. Generally this, along with Mormont's long appraising gaze, is read as pointing towards his Targaryen heritage. But maybe it doesn't, maybe the point always was that Jon was being built up to die as the Corn King - so he is rooted in the mythological rather than the political part of ASOIAF (though I suppose with the magic/fantasy side of the series becoming stronger that could be a false distinction to make). Anyhow, more maybe in the proper place...

On Marsh and Co I agree that as with Daenerys in Meereen this is all about jostling for power on the other hand Jon's behaviour as a leader is concerning. He's investing time talking with the giant via Leathers at the same time as he is loosing the confidence of his senior officers - the people he actually relies upon to get things done. Jon sees their limitations but doesn't act to deal with that - which is his responsibility as the leader of the Night's Watch. It's easy to blame Yarwyck for not wanting to take the giant but this is the great thing about the POV structure. We've been with Jon, we've seen the giants north of the wall, heard the last of the giants song, seen Leathers calm the giant at the oath swearing. Yarwyck hasn't had those experiences - and surely Jon, if he stopped to think about it, knows that. We see in that meeting that Jon can't transcend his own POV. He knows the limitations of his officers but hasn't been using his time to work with them to build consensus. In fact the opposite, he blames them for not being clever or wise enough to reach the same conclusions as he does.

In addition to concerns over power and position from Marsh's perspective Jon's actions look more and more unbalanced - taking on more men when he knows there is not enough food to feed them through winter, taking on disruptive and potentially dangerous people (wildlings, giants, women) when there aren't the black watchmen to guard against them. While at the same time respected figures who could have mediated and smoothed over the situation like Iron Emett and Dolorous Edd are being sent away.

Dangerous times.

**waves at Alysanne**

[Loras]

I'm sad to have missed out on such great analysis - the joys of moving house. Being disconnected from the Internet feels like cutting off an arm!

Again, I disagree with the sentiment that Jon handles the meeting with the Chief Steward, First Builder and Septon well. I think this is one of his weakest moments as a leader and for me this is the moment that starts Marsh on the path of Brutus. It is difficult to tell how much time has passed since the Battle for the Wall, where many great men of the Night's Watch lost their lives fighting the Wildlings and even less time has passed since the three heads were found violated by the Weeper (the man that Marsh himself fought at the Bridge of Skulls). I think their reaction to the Wildlings coming through the Wall is entirely understandable. Jon has failed to communicate with his commanders, when he does at the end of the chapter he is fuelled by his anger and frustration (akin to the fight with Rattleshirt) and this enflames the situation.

I am not trying to say that I am on the side of Marsh and Co and I agree with the sentiment that they are using 'the men' as a mask or method of promoting their own opinion. Yet even Mully, someone that Jon seems to trust, equips Val with a half-blind horse. We know that this won't be the only horse available to the Night's Watch, but the sentiment is clear - giving Val the horse is begrudged and so she is given the horse least suited to her purpose. Wildlings don't deserve high quality resources.

Jon's failure to compromise on anything that Marsh suggests is a very interesting counterpoint to Dany. He does little to appease his commanders and I doubt that Mormont kept anything from them; such as the bodies in the ice cells, Val being sent away etc. Jon is becoming a dictator at the Wall and causing a revolution that the men who have served, fought and bled at the Wall for many years cannot comprehend. For me, Jon's stubbornness is rubbing salt in the wounds of his men!

He could have saved a lot of time by trying to explain what he was doing to his fellow leaders rather than behaving like the lone wolf!

One thing I do like in this chapter is that Jon thinks Melisandre was right - finally! :-D

[The Snow King]

On Marsh and Co I agree that as with Daenerys in Meereen this is all about jostling for power on the other hand Jon's behaviour as a leader is concerning. He's investing time talking with the giant via Leathers at the same time as he is loosing the confidence of his senior officers - the people he actually relies upon to get things done. Jon sees their limitations but doesn't act to deal with that - which is his responsibility as the leader of the Night's Watch. It's easy to blame Yarwyck for not wanting to take the giant but this is the great thing about the POV structure. We've been with Jon, we've seen the giants north of the wall, heard the last of the giants song, seen Leathers calm the giant at the oath swearing. Yarwyck hasn't had those experiences - and surely Jon, if he stopped to think about it, knows that. We see in that meeting that Jon can't transcend his own POV. He knows the limitations of his officers but hasn't been using his time to work with them to build consensus. In fact the opposite, he blames them for not being clever or wise enough to reach the same conclusions as he does.

While I agree that Jon may probably have tried harder to appease his commanders, I don't think it was at all possible. The problem are not only the changes that Jon introduces, but it basically stems from the fact that neither of those men trusts Jon. The septon is probably the worst of the bunch, it's been a while that we've seen him picking on Jon due to Jon's faith in the old gods. Besides that Jon is a bastard and half-wildling, and whatnot. There is simply no way those men could trust or respect Jon, not without at least few years of Jon proving himself as LC. There was not time for itthough, and they were already marinated in contempt and prejudices from the time they spent with Slynt and Thorne. And we have to take into account that Jon was pretty busy, he could not spend a mojority of time just trying to win his senior officers over, especially when they were unwilling to accept the changes - not only because of hate and prejudice, but also because those men never were on the other side of the wall, and seem to me to be simply unwilling the horrific reality of the Others. Wildlings are simpler enemies. Replacing those men could probably work, but if there were any people suited for it, I suppose that Mormont would do that already. The decline of NW is a common theme since first book, there just aren't enough people with appropriate skills, and there isn't much anyone can do about it.

For that matter, I do not think any leader can be completely safe from assassination, not unless he gives up to paranoia - but that would not work out in the NW anyway. As soon as Marsh managed to convince other people to back him up, and no one decided to act or just inform someone about the plan, there was no thing Jon could do to be safe.

One thing I do like in this chapter is that Jon thinks Melisandre was right - finally! :-D

And what's good about that? :P Prophecy is a terrible thing to use in decision-making, leads nowhere good.

[Dacie]

While I agree that Jon may probably have tried harder to appease his commanders, I don't think it was at all possible. The problem are not only the changes that Jon introduces, but it basically stems from the fact that neither of those men trusts Jon. The septon is probably the worst of the bunch, it's been a while that we've seen him picking on Jon due to Jon's faith in the old gods. Besides that Jon is a bastard and half-wildling, and whatnot. There is simply no way those men could trust or respect Jon, not without at least few years of Jon proving himself as LC. There was not time for itthough, and they were already marinated in contempt and prejudices from the time they spent with Slynt and Thorne. And we have to take into account that Jon was pretty busy, he could not spend a mojority of time just trying to win his senior officers over, especially when they were unwilling to accept the changes - not only because of hate and prejudice, but also because those men never were on the other side of the wall, and seem to me to be simply unwilling the horrific reality of the Others. Wildlings are simpler enemies. Replacing those men could probably work, but if there were any people suited for it, I suppose that Mormont would do that already. The decline of NW is a common theme since first book, there just aren't enough people with appropriate skills, and there isn't much anyone can do about it.

For that matter, I do not think any leader can be completely safe from assassination, not unless he gives up to paranoia - but that would not work out in the NW anyway. As soon as Marsh managed to convince other people to back him up, and no one decided to act or just inform someone about the plan, there was no thing Jon could do to be safe.

I agree. It was pointed out back-thread (I think by Tze, correct me if I'm wrong) that the rangers and a lot of the others seem to be fine with Jon's leadership. I don't think there is any way to convince Marsh and co about the real threat and why taking on Wildlings was the right choice. As you said, they are a simple enemy, well known, easy to fight. The threat of wights and Others requires some out of the box thinking, and sometimes people would rather remain ignorant and stick their heads in the sand than accept the truth. And they are never going to trust Jon. Period. They're just too deeply rooted in their prejudices. Could Jon have spent more time placating to the dissenters and trying to win them to his cause? Sure. But I think he just came to the conclusion that it was a no win situation and his energy is best directed elsewhere.

[kg1982]

Agree with Loras about the meeting; it really is one of Jon's weakest moments. It's fun to hear Jon snark on Marsh and company, but they're high ranking members of the NW and ones that Jon cannot practically dismiss. As much as he might disagree with them, these are the people that he has to work with, and he might give in a little on some of their demands. For instance, the steward situation.. There's no reason why Jon cannot appoint another in addition to Satin as a compromise.

Additionally, Jon is so sure that he is right that he fails to recognize that some of the concerns might have merit. Yes, Wun-Wun is a strong worker, but he also speaks no English. How are the builders going to communicate with him? Surely the Master-in-arms at Castle Black has better things to do than translate for Wun Wun all day. Considering how much of the chaos in the Wall in Jon XIII starts because of Wun-Wun's confusion and lack of ability to communicate, Jon's proposal doesn't look that great in hindsight.

[The Snow King]

Additionally, Jon is so sure that he is right that he fails to recognize that some of the concerns might have merit. Yes, Wun-Wun is a strong worker, but he also speaks no English. How are the builders going to communicate with him? Surely the Master-in-arms at Castle Black has better things to do than translate for Wun Wun all day. Considering how much of the chaos in the Wall in Jon XIII starts because of Wun-Wun's confusion and lack of ability to communicate, Jon's proposal doesn't look that great in hindsight.

But that is exactly the point. Wun Wun is useful, but hard to communicate with, and people are afraid of him. If they had to work together, they would have to find some way of communicating, so builders learn a bit of Old Tongue, and Wun Wun some of common. They may have not necessarily become friends, but they would get to know each other and maybe, just maybe, see that some kind of peace is possible. But Othell will have none of that, and what can you do? Creating a bridge between two antagonistic cultures takes years, Jon tries to appeal to common enemy and common sense, but it fails. You can't force people to be friends, at least not without some, well, force. Stannis with all his army could do, Jon has only his brothers who will rather conspire against him.

The problem is that builders and stewards spent too much time sitting safely behind a wall, and they just cannot grasp the real problem. Rangers clearly can.

[The Sleeper]

Jon's failure to compromise on anything that Marsh suggests is a very interesting counterpoint to Dany. He does little to appease his commanders and I doubt that Mormont kept anything from them; such as the bodies in the ice cells, Val being sent away etc. Jon is becoming a dictator at the Wall and causing a revolution that the men who have served, fought and bled at the Wall for many years cannot comprehend. For me, Jon's stubbornness is rubbing salt in the wounds of his men!

He could have saved a lot of time by trying to explain what he was doing to his fellow leaders rather than behaving like the lone wolf!

One thing I do like in this chapter is that Jon thinks Melisandre was right - finally! :-D

For one. I think Jon was quite eloquent in his conversations with Marsh and co. Once again he had a council with his advisors, but ultimately the decision was his. No matter of talking would appease them. The only way they could be appeased was by compromising and relenting on his decisions. This affected his bottomline. And the bottomline is this: the wildlings either come through as reluctant allies or they break through as foes or worse as wights. Let's face it, between Tormund and the Weeper the wildlings still number in the tens of thousands and there is only so much Wall the Night's Watch can guard.

[kg1982]

But what happens if there's a miscommunication between the builders and Wun Wun and it ends in a Ser Patrek type situation? How does that help a tense situation? Jon really has more pressing concerns than inter-cultural dialogue. He can deal with that after the ice zombies are defeated. Right now, he has to deal with his senior staff and accept their prejudices.

[Budj]

Marsh wanted genocide for the wildlings. Leaving them north of the wall would surely have meant their doom. I don't think Jon could have explained it any better and it is stated in the books that rangers and eventually builders and portions of stewards agreed with Jon. Marsh and his cohorts were an overwhelming minority.

[kissdbyfire]

Additionally, Jon is so sure that he is right that he fails to recognize that some of the concerns might have merit. Yes, Wun-Wun is a strong worker, but he also speaks no English. How are the builders going to communicate with him? Surely the Master-in-arms at Castle Black has better things to do than translate for Wun Wun all day. Considering how much of the chaos in the Wall in Jon XIII starts because of Wun-Wun's confusion and lack of ability to communicate, Jon's proposal doesn't look that great in hindsight.

But... that's not really true, is it? The trouble orchestrated at the Wall in that chapter happened because Ser Patrek decided he wanted a go at stilling Val despite the fact that he knew Wun Wun, who doesn't speak the common tongue and is a fiercely strong cider giant, was there guarding her!

[Loras]

For one. I think Jon was quite eloquent in his conversations with Marsh and co. Once again he had a council with his advisors, but ultimately the decision was his. No matter of talking would appease them. The only way they could be appeased was by compromising and relenting on his decisions. This affected his bottomline. And the bottomline is this: the wildlings either come through as reluctant allies or they break through as foes or worse as wights. Let's face it, between Tormund and the Weeper the wildlings still number in the tens of thousands and there is only so much Wall the Night's Watch can guard.

You are right that the decision is ultimately Jon's, but the structure of the Night's Watch itself means that Jon should consider his fellow commanders. As there are 3 orders within the Watch, who have their own line manager, Jon should be heeding the advice of more experienced men. Bowen is much better qualified to discuss what the Night's Watch can cope with in terms of resources, yet Jon disregards his advice seeing it as cowardice. The bottom line is that the Watch can't sustain such a large number of mouths.

Jon does not make his reasoning clear because he isn't communicating. The reason he isn't communicating is that he doesn't like the opposition. Jon is determined to go through with his plans - regardless of their council. It is little wonder that they are pissed. Jon is acting petty in this conversation, he has not killed the boy and let the man be born. Nobody would ever expect Eddard Stark to have handled this situation so poorly!

He should heed the wisdom of people with more experience! Shutting out his senior officers in favour of the Wildlings (Val, Leathers and later Tormund) is signing his own death warrant.

[Lummel]

Whoa! Whoa People! Lets not get into discussing the events of Jon XIII yet we've only just had Jon VIII!

Here you are all so eager to discuss things that we haven't even got up to in the reread and you ignore my post about Daenerys and Jon's potential depression, why it's enough to make a man cry :(

Come on lets stick to the chapter order...

[Budj]

I think Jon disregards Bowen Marsh because he just uses excuses to further his agenda. Jon came up with ways to handle the food issue. While a work in progress a was trying to find solutions.

Sorry - last comment on that till it is relevant :)

[kg1982]

Well, that's another area where Jon really screws up in the communication aspect. He thinks that he's rationally explaining Wildling marriage practices, but he doesn't get that what he's saying might be insulting to Ser Patrek. The LC of the Night's Watch is saying that Ser Patrek cannot even fight off a girl in front of Ser Patrek's colleagues and his queen! Plus, he probably is already insulted because he's stuck guarding Selyse rather than fighting with Stannis.

On the other other hand, Wun-Wun might have gotten very simple instructions from Leathers and Jon, such as guard Val. From his perspective, he's doing just that. There's no way for anyone to talk down Wun Wun because of the lack of communication. It's easy to see how something like that might spiral out of control or how a similar situation could have occurred if Wun Wun started working with the builders earlier.

[Loras]

Whoa! Whoa People! Lets not get into discussing the events of Jon XIII yet we've only just had Jon VIII!

Here you are all so eager to discuss things that we haven't even got up to in the reread and you ignore my post about Daenerys and Jon's potential depression, why it's enough to make a man cry :(

Come on lets stick to the chapter order...

Sorry Lummel :(

In terms of depression, I think it is much more obvious in Dany's chapters. At this point it feels like she has given up, it has been so long since she held court that her handmaidens have to 'find' her crown. My interpretation was that she is now living her life through Daario. He is the centre of her world, his life to her is exciting while hers is monotonous.

What does Dany actually 'do' in this chapter. Daario has the freedom that she wishes she had. She is similar to Sansa in KL in these chapters!

[kissdbyfire]

Whoa! Whoa People! Lets not get into discussing the events of Jon XIII yet we've only just had Jon VIII!

Here you are all so eager to discuss things that we haven't even got up to in the reread and you ignore my post about Daenerys and Jon's potential depression, why it's enough to make a man cry :(

Come on lets stick to the chapter order...

Sorry... :(

[mshadows]

Long time lurker here, I just want to give my opinion on the subject. I believe this is,the chapter Jon finally gives up on Marsh & co. its talk and leave from now on for them. There "the men" nonsense is at odds with the rangers who complain there not in the woods and are bored standing about. Jon's reactions to "the men" also lends credence to satin first steward theory in my opinion. Can't wait for next Jon chapters

[Ragnorak]

This discussion is more suited to Jon XIII, so I am running the risk of committing the sin of anticipating future chapters (and we all know that this is one of those really bad sins, were they have an especially bad hell reserved for you) by discussing this...but, I don't know what your intuitive feel for it however I would take two things from it.

I get the general "sacrifice figure" notion but I get no sense at all of how that might play out in Jon's story. Giving up a crown for a democratic rebirth and giving up his life to end the Long Night both fit the model but are vastly different and the Corn King allusions give me no sense of the unfolding story. Pagan harvest rituals also show up with the Prince of Pentos who deflowers virgins at each Spring planting ceremony but is sacrificed in case of a bad harvest. The three men in the Barleycorn Ballad are reflected in the three heralds that accompany the Prince of Pentos. No idea how it could connect to Jon but it is the only other pagan harvest reference I can think of in the series. Bran's weirwood vision sacrifice might be another reference but it lacked context.

From the Ballad of John Barleycorn:

And these three men made a solemn vow,

John Barleycorn should die.

At the end of Jon's meeting there may well be three men making a solemn vow that "Jon" Barleycorn should die. The Corn King seems to be a root myth that takes on different forms depending on which branch one follows. Bran the Blessed is supposedly a Corn King outgrowth myth and seems to have been at least mildly influencial in Bran's character, not Jon's though (even with a half-brother who sacrifices himself at his abused half-sister's wedding to stop the dead from rising the parallels aren't really there.) Depending on the outgrowth myth, the metaphor details seem to change. Rebirth, cyclic ressurection, and healing are all mentioned as Corn King mythological themes. Which of those themes is unfolding in Jon's arc? The raven saying "Corn, King" should be a clue that what is currently transpiring is part of that mythological allusion.

Jon seems to be sowing the seeds of a unified North and Free Folk. But if the Corn King myth implies a sacrifice so that planting will turn into a bountiful harvest that seems to make Marsh, Yarwyck and the Septon the planters or harvesters based on the John Barleycorn Ballad which strikes me as in opposition to their actual roles.

"Why, then, you may have a chance to choose a lord commander more to your liking. Until such time, I fear you'll still need to suffer me."

Jon took a swallow of ale.

Here is a reference to Jon's dying followed by him drinking ale, one of the rewards of the John Barleycorn sacrifice. That Jon is drinking the ale and not any of the other three is probably significant.

[Dacie]

Dany definitely shows signs of depression: she has shut herself away from the outside world, rarely eats or sleeps, is fidgety, and has developed almost this obsession with Daario (seriously, Dany, he letsyou dress him?).

I wonder if Jon's problem might not be more of an anxiety state, or a mix of both depression and anxiety as the two commonly go hand in hand. He isn't eating or sleeping either, and suffers from constant worry (you know nothing, Jon Snow ). He also seems to live in a continuous state of uneasiness and he never can escape his concerns, even for a night to have dinner with his friends.

Both have suffered recent traumatic events that are often the catalyst for anxious or depressive episodes. Both are feeling the loss of their best confidantes, Dany with Jorah and Jon with Sam and Maester Aemon.

They differ in that Dany is quite paranoid while it doesn't seem Jon thinks much about being betrayed in an outright sense.