Win or Loose, is Stannis still doomed?

[RWHamel]

In real history, wars have never been fought during Winter (in that time), it's simply a logistical impossibility. And even later, Napoleon got real big problems during his Russian Campaign. Thus, the realistic way would be after the battle that things slow down for the rest of the winter and start with spring. Since we know this is going to be a long and harsh or one could even say an otherly winter, the situation will be harsh. It's simply going to be a wait with no movement of armies afterwards. And then the Others will come...

So I withhold any predictions since we know not much about that last variable...

Generally speaking you are correct. However during the War of the Roses, The Battle of Wakefield, Mortimer's Cross, and St Albans II were all fought in the Winter. I'm sure I can find other examples. Also your example of Napoleon is flawed in that the Russians were conducting a successful Winter campaign against him.

[aryagonnakill]

^ Frederick the great also kicked some serious ass during the winter. It can be an effective surprise tactic.

[Patrick Durden]

You make good points. At this point the Winter is his biggest opponent. I think the part in the Asha chapter where Stannis tells Justin Massey "promise me that if something happens to me, you'd fight for my daughter" was just preparing us for Stannis' death or his losing the war in the future.

[alienarea]

I wonder if Stannis has a secret plan of his own.

My thoughts:

With sending Massey away to hire sellswords and speaking about his death he is preparing to fake it. That would alsofit with the Pink Letter. The Freys get killed between Stannis and Manderley, Stannis disappears with his most loyal men, and the Manderleys return with Stannis' sword and some Karstark heads (the Boltons wouldn't confess their betrayal and be glad it apparently remains unknown).

Why would Stannis do that? I am convinced Davos is the hooded man, so the Northmen will know about Rickon one way or the other. From the gift chapter we know the Northmen don't like the burning, so Stannis can assume they won't follow him south after retaking Winterfell. But if he lets them sort out the Boltons on their own and leaves them in the north they won't betray him. That is the best he can expect from them in the long run.

What will Stannis do instead? He'll sneak into KL with a few loyal men and dispose of Cersei - he'll be the valonquar and sit the iron throne until Dany appears.

[Lord Varys]

Anyway, it would be completely out of character for Stannis to leave Jon, Melisandre, Selyse, and Shireen at the mercy of Bowen Marsh, the wildlings, or whoever ends up calling the shots at Castle Black. For them alone he would march back to the Wall. Then there is the fact that it would be utter stupidity to conquer a kingdom in the south while all the Realm might be taken away from him by the Others in his unguarded rear.

Stannis came North to deal with the Others, and it's evident in ADwD that he considers them the real threat, not the various pretenders. In his mind it's his duty to fight against them, and he is going to do that.

No chain of events is going to convince Stannis that it would be the best thing to do to march south after he has taken Winterfell. It would be utterly stupid!

[CrypticWeirwood]

Seems highry unrikely that Loose Borton can rose to Stannis, what with Stannis still all rost in the snow and the Fleys wandeling around roose beyond the outer warrs. Learry, how can he rose this one?

[MCBC]

Supplies are low, men are tired and the snow storms aren't helping. His base at The Wall is in turmoil and the North might not declare for him if Rickon is rescued. And even if they do declare for him, what then? He's still in the same miserable situation as when he was outside Winterfell. No Great Hearth-Fire is going to change the fact that he's out of food, even with twice the men he's got, all who are bloodies, tired and hungry.

Is there anyone more prepared for this situation then Stannis? He was in a worse situation in Storms End in that he was stuck in a castle & couldnt move around, with barely anything to eat. If he wins Winterfell, he will still have the money to buy food from the bank & he can sail with the ships to get it. Especially if he & Manderly will be able to get on the same page. Putting a Stark in Winterfell & aiding the food situation in the North has potential for the first time, to make Stannis a popular figure.

As far as the overall fate of the character. You always feel like Stannis is on the path to a doomed fate but he manages to endure. The obvious ending is probably Stannis puting himself in a situation he cant get out of & dying. Will he be satisfied with anything but being King? Depends on what he thinks of the emergence of Aegon.

[aryagonnakill]

Is there anyone more prepared for this situation then Stannis? He was in a worse situation in Storms End in that he was stuck in a castle & couldnt move around, with barely anything to eat. If he wins Winterfell, he will still have the money to buy food from the bank & he can sail with the ships to get it. Especially if he & Manderly will be able to get on the same page. Putting a Stark in Winterfell & aiding the food situation in the North has potential for the first time, to make Stannis a popular figure.

As far as the overall fate of the character. You always feel like Stannis is on the path to a doomed fate but he manages to endure. The obvious ending is probably Stannis puting himself in a situation he cant get out of & dying. Will he be satisfied with anything but being King? Depends on what he thinks of the emergence of Aegon.

Wow I just noticed the parallel here. When Stannis was trapped in Storms end Davos came and saved him with food. Now Davos is going to come and save him with with food again. Manderly is the one with all the food, and once/when Davos comes/came back with Rickon Manderly will be on Stannis' side and give his men food.

[aryagonnakill]

Seems highry unrikely that Loose Borton can rose to Stannis, what with Stannis still all rost in the snow and the Fleys wandeling around roose beyond the outer warrs. Learry, how can he rose this one?

Enjoying some arbor gold?

[The Sunset King]

The titles of the books and the general direction the plot is going in seem to suggest that the story will go on during the current winter and end sometime in the upcoming spring. This might necessitate having some events occur earlier than strict realism would allow.

[Tetrarch42]

I wonder if Stannis has a secret plan of his own.

My thoughts:

With sending Massey away to hire sellswords and speaking about his death he is preparing to fake it. That would alsofit with the Pink Letter. The Freys get killed between Stannis and Manderley, Stannis disappears with his most loyal men, and the Manderleys return with Stannis' sword and some Karstark heads (the Boltons wouldn't confess their betrayal and be glad it apparently remains unknown).

Why would Stannis do that? I am convinced Davos is the hooded man, so the Northmen will know about Rickon one way or the other. From the gift chapter we know the Northmen don't like the burning, so Stannis can assume they won't follow him south after retaking Winterfell. But if he lets them sort out the Boltons on their own and leaves them in the north they won't betray him. That is the best he can expect from them in the long run.

What will Stannis do instead? He'll sneak into KL with a few loyal men and dispose of Cersei - he'll be the valonquar and sit the iron throne until Dany appears.

This is interesting, I'd never considered Stannis to be the valonqar.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Seems highry unrikely that Loose Borton can rose to Stannis, what with Stannis still all rost in the snow and the Fleys wandeling around roose beyond the outer warrs. Learry, how can he rose this one?

UnVargo Hoat is on us!

We're doomed.

[sumant30]

I wonder if Stannis has a secret plan of his own.

My thoughts:

With sending Massey away to hire sellswords and speaking about his death he is preparing to fake it. That would alsofit with the Pink Letter. The Freys get killed between Stannis and Manderley, Stannis disappears with his most loyal men, and the Manderleys return with Stannis' sword and some Karstark heads (the Boltons wouldn't confess their betrayal and be glad it apparently remains unknown).

Why would Stannis do that? I am convinced Davos is the hooded man, so the Northmen will know about Rickon one way or the other. From the gift chapter we know the Northmen don't like the burning, so Stannis can assume they won't follow him south after retaking Winterfell. But if he lets them sort out the Boltons on their own and leaves them in the north they won't betray him. That is the best he can expect from them in the long run.

What will Stannis do instead? He'll sneak into KL with a few loyal men and dispose of Cersei - he'll be the valonquar and sit the iron throne until Dany appears.

You have really given a new perspective, and davos being hooded man it is also possible nice theory though.

[sumant30]

UnVargo Hoat is on us!

We're doomed.

Nice catch :P

[Snoop]

I've seen this theory about Davos being the 'hooded man' in Winterfell, but he would have had to get from White Harbor to Skagos and back to land AND all the way to Winterfell. I don't have a map in front of me, but that seems like an awful lot of ground (and water) to cover in some really bad weather conditions. About how much time passed between Davos getting his assignment and the siege at Winterfell?

I like alienarea's theory on Stannis as the Valonqar, but I don't see him as the type who would leave his men and his unfinished business to do something clandestine like that. I didn't see him as the sort to break bread with people named "Big Bucket" and "Middle Liddle" either.

I don't see a scenario in which Stannis wins the Iron Throne. He (along with Dany or Aegon) may have the most right to it, but unless he's seen as the savior against the Others I don't see anyone south of the Neck even paying attention to his claim. And the sellswords he'd likely get in the east will be of a different ilk than the Golden Company, thus they might not be any more welcome as conquerors as, say, Dany and her Unsullied and/or Dothraki hordes. It seems to me that Aegon (and his backers) are going about it the right way: win Westeros with Westerosi swords and Westerosi alliances.

[sumant30]

I've seen this theory about Davos being the 'hooded man' in Winterfell, but he would have had to get from White Harbor to Skagos and back to land AND all the way to Winterfell. I don't have a map in front of me, but that seems like an awful lot of ground (and water) to cover in some really bad weather conditions. About how much time passed between Davos getting his assignment and the siege at Winterfell?

I like alienarea's theory on Stannis as the Valonqar, but I don't see him as the type who would leave his men and his unfinished business to do something clandestine like that. I didn't see him as the sort to break bread with people named "Big Bucket" and "Middle Liddle" either.

I don't see a scenario in which Stannis wins the Iron Throne. He (along with Dany or Aegon) may have the most right to it, but unless he's seen as the savior against the Others I don't see anyone south of the Neck even paying attention to his claim. And the sellswords he'd likely get in the east will be of a different ilk than the Golden Company, thus they might not be any more welcome as conquerors as, say, Dany and her Unsullied and/or Dothraki hordes. It seems to me that Aegon (and his backers) are going about it the right way: win Westeros with Westerosi swords and Westerosi alliances.

I too think stannis is doomed may be he wins the battle of ice but unless and until he gets in the castle the others are going to ruin all his plans.

[Dawn Age]

I think the Northmen are more prepared for Winter than we might think. A lot of young boys and old men worked the farms to provide a considerable amount of harvest. I don't think Ned Stark would waste any opportunity during that long summer to put away some food.

If Stannis wins, he just has to make sure Moat Cailin is secured while the Lannisters (probably led by a freed Cersei thanks to Ser Robert Strong) and the Tyrells kill each other while The Golden Company sack towns and rally Stormlords to their cause. If Dany ever gets out of that clusterfuck of Mereen she might focus her attention on the South. Meanwhile he waits for sellswords and his unlimited wealth from the Iron Bank could give him an edge over his enemies.

As for The Others. I bet they will turn up at the end of the book.

[MtnLion]

I had to resurrect this thread, as I was going back over the House of the Undying prophecy (slayer of lies) and had some relevant thoughts. Here is the quote:

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies.

As I read this very carefully I found that the first line is important to this thread. Stannis will be a king that cast no shadow. His sword is a fake, we know already from Maester Aemon. Stannis will be a king when Daenerys exposes the sword as being a prop. What king would cast no shadow? The answer has been staring us in the face for so long, at night we cast no shadow. Stannis is doomed to be the Night's King.

[ab aeterno]

As I read this very carefully I found that the first line is important to this thread. Stannis will be a king that cast no shadow. His sword is a fake, we know already from Maester Aemon. Stannis will be a king when Daenerys exposes the sword as being a prop. What king would cast no shadow? The answer has been staring us in the face for so long, at night we cast no shadow. Stannis is doomed to be the Night's King.

That has been the popular and conventional understanding of that line, yes. There are other possibilities, but he is certainly the favorite on the forum.

[Volantis]

I had to resurrect this thread, as I was going back over the House of the Undying prophecy (slayer of lies) and had some relevant thoughts. Here is the quote:

As I read this very carefully I found that the first line is important to this thread. Stannis will be a king that cast no shadow. His sword is a fake, we know already from Maester Aemon. Stannis will be a king when Daenerys exposes the sword as being a prop. What king would cast no shadow? The answer has been staring us in the face for so long, at night we cast no shadow. Stannis is doomed to be the Night's King.

Dude, there was only one Night's King and he died 8000 years ago or so.

Or are you saying Stannis is gonna time travel 8000 years?