US Politics: Obama Vs Romney, 2012

[TerraPrime]

That seems silly.

Romney has done nothing but espouse the party line from the GOP on almost all issues. How is it, then, that the GOP brand name is "dragging him down?" Seems like Romney got into bed with this partner of his own free will. If Romney had been campaigning on a different set of core issues that deviates from the mainstream GOP, then I may be sympathetic. But he has not, far as I can see. So he's getting what his message deserves, and the party's overal unfavorable polling is just one of the natural consequences of his campaign decisions.

[Ser Greguh]

I don't care whether or not a candidate is religious, but I do care very much as to the way in which they rely upon magical thinking, including prayer, as a means to provide direct answers to real-world problems. W, for example, had a big problem with this, using prayer to guide many of the decisions he made WRT Iraq, to predictably disastrous results. While it is possible to be religious without resorting to overt stupidity, the degree to which religion provides an impetus for such stupidity makes the religious beliefs of the candidate relevant. Yes, it's possible to parse out individual stupidities without resorting to offending the religious sensitivities, but "Candidate is a bona fide Jesus Freak" is efficient enough as shorthand.

[Ormond]

Perhaps something to be slightly scared about if you're an Obama supporter:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/democrats-leaving-mail-ba_b_2069037.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

[IheartTesla]

its pretty much accepted that you can't win the US election without being religious. so basically the choice is between a fool or a liar. this is not a religious topic, this is a what would you rather vote for topic.

liar who says he believes in imaginary friends to win votes

or

fool who actually believes in them?

Please point out to me these British politicians who have never told a lie.

[Datepalm]

Am I the only one who think that reporting actual votes before other actual votes have even been cast is kind of weird? Here, three days before the elections, publicizing polling results becomes illegal, and if we had early voting, you can be that would be illegal. The logic being, I guess, that it could swing the race and knowing how the other guy voted shouldn't be a consideration in your vote. But maybe that only matters when voting has a strategic-coalitionary sort of element.

[IheartTesla]

Obama up 3 nationally in pew now!! Romney average 47!! lolz 47%.

http://politicalwire...l#disqus_thread

In other news, the RCP average is ticking up to the Pollster average, with O+0.5 or so. Of course, Gallup will release its post-Sandy outlier to throw a cold shower on all that, but for now at least we have better agreement with state and national polls (or at least them pointing in the same direction.

So with Ras taking his thumb off the scale and Gallup off the scene, we have our answer.

[IheartTesla]

Am I the only one who think that reporting actual votes before other actual votes have even been cast is kind of weird? Here, three days before the elections, publicizing polling results becomes illegal, and if we had early voting, you can be that would be illegal. The logic being, I guess, that it could swing the race and knowing how the other guy voted shouldn't be a consideration in your vote. But maybe that only matters when voting has a strategic-coalitionary sort of element.

They arent actual votes. Most of them are guesstimates based on party registration, which is publicly available knowledge I guess. The vote is still secret until it is tabulated.

For places like Colorado independents are quite large in number, and in Ohio party ID os not required. So its pretty much even more of a guess, with some polls thrown in as well.

[DaveRoid]

In other news, the RCP average is ticking up to the Pollster average, with O+0.5 or so. Of course, Gallup will release its post-Sandy outlier to throw a cold shower on all that, but for now at least we have better agreement with state and national polls (or at least them pointing in the same direction.

So with Ras taking his thumb off the scale and Gallup off the scene, we have our answer.

I think gallup will show it is pretty close as well. they were the outlier for so long that they had to take down their poll for a week (using sandy as an excuse) so they could correct their models or look why it is so different from other polls.

[K.C.]

Datepalm, there are similar laws in some European countries, all of them dumb. The networks do have guidelines in place that, for example, no exit polls are reported until voting concludes in a state. That's why Wolf Blitzer has his little countdown clock before he can reveal the results. This became controversial when results from some parts of Florida were leaked before voting had concluded in the panhandle. (Florida is located in two timezones.) But the only place the government has in the affair is making sure no campaigning or voter intimidation takes place around the polling places.

[Sixshells]

Am I the only one who think that reporting actual votes before other actual votes have even been cast is kind of weird? Here, three days before the elections, publicizing polling results becomes illegal, and if we had early voting, you can be that would be illegal. The logic being, I guess, that it could swing the race and knowing how the other guy voted shouldn't be a consideration in your vote. But maybe that only matters when voting has a strategic-coalitionary sort of element.

It's about the same over here, except all polling and campaining are supposed to stop one day before the vote. Reporting results or estimates before all voting offices have closed is illegal as well, although our neighbours (well, in Belgium at least) like to mess with that at each election.

They arent actual votes. Most of them are guesstimates based on party registration, which is publicly available knowledge I guess. The vote is still secret until it is tabulated.

For places like Colorado independents are quite large in number, and in Ohio party ID os not required. So its pretty much even more of a guess, with some polls thrown in as well.

Registering the voter's party affiliation is a pretty wierd thing, though. Even if it doesn't mean you are actually going to vote for that party or all the propositions that party is backing, it is standing in the way of the secret ballot.

[TerraPrime]

Here's a good example. At the second debate one of the folks asked Romney something like the following: "Mr. Romney - I have been disappointed w/ the lack of progress in the last four year, yet I fear that you would take us back to the policies of GWB. How are you different from GWB?"

And my point is that given Romney's current team of advisors and his statements on foreign policy, it is more than fair to fear that he will return to the GWB era of policies if elected. Therefore, there's nothing wrong with him suffering from lower voter support on account of this.

If you champion bad policies, there is sometimes actually a chance that you might suffer for it.

[Fragile Bird]

So since Washington lost their football game, are y'all ready now to concede Romney's win?

[Fez]

So since Washington lost their football game, are y'all ready now to concede Romney's win?

But more Obama Halloween masks were sold too, so now I don't know what to believe.

[IheartTesla]

What does the octopus have to say about all this?

[K.C.]

Cthulu supports Obama.

[1918me]

Cthulu supports Obama.

Oh thank God.

[Inigima]

But Ohio State won yesterday. What are we to do?

Elect Ron Paul.

Fucking Redskins.

[Sci-2]

If you champion bad policies, there is sometimes actually a chance that you might suffer for it.

I'm actually amazed at how little it hurts Romney to be all over the map. Papers have endorsed him with an expectation that he'll stand up to his own party on social issues.

It makes feel like I am missing something regarding SCOTUS noms at the very least, and in general I can't see Romney standing up to rabid Tea Party frenzy I expect to see will result following his victory.

[Kairi]

What does the octopus have to say about all this?

Nothing. He is dead.

[Sci-2]