R+L = J v 38

[Lady Green]

I don't think Jon needs to be told, he already knows. Bowen Marsh manages to find the proper reasoning :cool4:

Anyway, in his last chapters he starts to act more and more like a King in the North (arranging marriage, letting wildlings throug, securing a loan, etc). And he sees the limits of his power there. And if the Boltons threaten his already limited power up there, while he knows hew should deal with the Others, than the Boltons should be defeated. If Stannis is dead, than he himself has to do it. Even if it is oathbreaking.

I hadn't even noticed this *facepalm*. And he's already got the support of Karhold.

[MtnLion]

The duel occurred just after Cat's betrothal was announced, which was, I think, after Harrenhal, and Brandon was on his way to Riverrun to marry Cat when he heard about Lyanna. Between Harrenhal and the rebellion was about a year, right? And the rebellion didn't start until Brandon was dead and Jon Arryn called his banners. So there's our window.

But I don't think the duel's location on this timeline would really affect whether or not LF had a role. His wound was not life-threatening, as I recall, and wouldn't have taken too long to heal. So he would have been back in the Fingers pretty quickly, which puts him outside of the action.

I wanted to address this again, since I did a lot of research on the line. Yes, before the duel, on an occasion Littlefinger and Catelyn had danced, while Lysa watched and became jealous. They had drank too much wine, and Lysa stole into Littlefinger's chambers. Littlefinger obviously thinks Lysa is Catelyn in his drunkeness.

Brandon and Littlefinger dueled when the announcement of Brandon and Catelyn's betrothal was made. After the duel, Littlefinger is so badly wounded as to require a fortnight before he could even be moved. Lysa tended him while he was wounded, but obviously had become pregnant before this time as Hoster forced Littlefinger to leave as soon as it was possible to move him in a litter. The trip to the Fingers via litter would be a slow one indeed.

Catelyn thinks of Littlefinger as clever but not wise. Littlefinger tells Alayne to always keep her hands clean. Whatever message that was delivered to Brandon while on his way to Riverrun for marriage was clearly inflammatory. Perhaps it didn't mention Lyanna as accompanying Rhaegar at all, since Brandon fails to mention his sister in his demands at King's Landing.

[Ygrain]

Catelyn thinks of Littlefinger as clever but not wise. Littlefinger tells Alayne to always keep her hands clean. Whatever message that was delivered to Brandon while on his way to Riverrun for marriage was clearly inflammatory. Perhaps it didn't mention Lyanna as accompanying Rhaegar at all, since Brandon fails to mention his sister in his demands at King's Landing.

Or perhaps it mentioned Lyanna in a way tha made clear that she was a willing participant, hence the lack of concern for her safety and an even greater offence to the Stark name.

[Queen of Procrastination]

I allways had my own theory who spread the rumour:

Varys.

Let´s assume that Varys wanted to destroy House Targaryen or to remove them from the throne, to put the Blackfyres in charge.

Aerys had allready pissed of Tywin and the other lords did not like him very much either. Maybe they would have acted against him.

But there was Rhaegar. The young popular crown prince who was loved by the small folk and the lords.

So Varys needed to get this popular crown prince out of his way or he needed the lords to act against him.

Whe know that Varys told Aerys that Rhaegar wanted to use the Tourney of Harrenhall to plan removing his father with the lords.

So maybe Varys hoped that paranoid Aerys would act against his own son (Rhaegar was planning to remove Aerys from the Iron Throne, which was basicly treason).

Aerys did not act against Rhaegar, so Varys still needed to get rid of the crown prince.

One of Varys "Little Birds" learns that Lyanna went away with Rhaegar and tell Varys about it.

Varys sees an opportunity to destroy Rhaegar´s reputition.

He tells his birds to spread the rumour that Rhaegar kidnapped (and raped) Lyanna.

This rumour should turn Rhaegar from the well-loved crown prince to a vile kidnapper and rapist.

The Baratheons and the Starks will like House Targaryen less then they did before.

Maybe Varys had some spies near Brandon and Robert and he told them to talk about Lyanna´s kidnapping when the listened, maybe he hoped that these to would act against house Targaryen.

Even if they would not have acted, House Targaryen and Rhaegar would have become less popular and in the case of a war for whatever reason few Houses would have sided with the Tagaryens.

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

It really is remarkable how much mileage we're able to get out of Ned Stark not "remembering" the whole ToJ sequence for us in the first book...

[shk12344]

Too many crackpot theories. If Varys or Littlefinger knew about Jon Snows real parents they would used that fact against Ned Stark long time ago and/or GRRM would have left some clear cut clues about their knowledge in the book.

I think more important point to discuss would be how Varys and Littlefinger would react when they find out, along with rest of Westoros, that Jon is the product of Rhaegar and Lyanna affair /marriage AND that Jon is also Azor Ahai.

I imagine both will be peeing in their pants and realize that have been "OUTPLAYED" by Ned Stark, due to the fact all their carefully designed plans will be unraveled and destroyed by Jon's rise to power.

[Lady Green]

I think it will be more interesting how Carys responds, he's the one that seems to be working for a Targ restauration, though then again he might be working for an Aegon restauration and so have caused the targ downfall too.

[Techelles]

And it provides a template for the later LF MO. Insert random misinformation and benefit from the chaos that follows. He had to learn that somewhere

Sure, he did have to start somewhere. But it just always made more sense to me that the LF we know developed slowly at first, during those long, lonely nights back out in the Fingers, when he still had no prospects...and nothing at all to do except nurse his bitterness. And when Lysa got him his first position in the Vale, his wheels began to turn in earnest.

One of the points of the theory is that it is a perfect 'on the fly' plan, with no plotting or planning required.

I get this...it's just that it's not much of a recommendation. It fails to demonstrate likelihood. Plenty of things would have been perfect if only they had happened.

The only happenstance required is that LF meets or sees R+L on the road. Timing, thats all. Like Cat and Tyrion meeting in the inn, or any number of other events.

Since Lyanna has probably been spending a fair amount of time around Riverrun, where her brother will be married and there are age-and-station appropriate young women that will become family, she probably knows Littlefinger as at least a 'familiar face' who is known at Riverrun. So she may trust him to pass a message on - he has access to Riverrun and can pass a message on to her father using the ravens there, and others.

Not just timing: location also. There was never any guarantee that LF and Lyanna would have been on the same roads or even in the same region. The Kingsroad is different, because it's the only road people use N-S. Given this, it actually would have been surprising if Cat and Tyrion had not bumped into each other.

And if LF did see her, he would have had to be the first one if the message he bore or concocted was to have any significance. Also, I doubt LF was travelling all alone. He was in a litter, after all, as MtnLion pointed out. So he probably wouldn't have been free to construe the message any way he liked; there would have been other witnesses to the hypothetical situation. All these things make it less and less likely.

no resources are required. All he has to do is return to Riverrun with a 'message from Lyanna'. Thats it. Whether he has one or not.

Just trying to cover all my bases by showing how each variation of the theory could run in to problems. My argument never hinged on his resources, but if he didn't have them, it would mean that he had to do the legwork himself. I can't see him returning to RR in his litter. I have to think someone else would have beat him to the punch. And if he sent someone back, why would that person spread an inflammatory story if that isn't what he saw? Because LF told him to? Whoever accompanied LF's return to the Fingers would have been retainers of RR. LF's family certainly didn't have the money to send a party to pick him up.

Exactly.

Yet she was a famous horsewoman, of independent and wild spirit. No doubt at all she was accustomed to riding out wherever she was.

What are you saying? Certainly she rode out. I expect that she met up with Rhaegar on one such ride. But permission to ride out is not permission to ride off with the prince. Wherever she was, it was under someone's supervision.

Rash, but that inconceivably stupid? An action that has zero prospect of a positive result in any form? An action that never even mentions his sister or her situation at all in fact? Just ride up to the gates of a paranoid king, with a small group, and demand the crown prince come out to die? Its not even clearly a proper challenge!

It really seems that something particularly incendiary must be required to explain Brandon's actions, wild wolf or not.

Like I said before, the message could well have been incendiary without any help from LF. RR men who saw Lyanna with Rhaegar wouldn't have interpreted the situation kindly. Rhaegar wouldn't have stopped to explain things to them; he would have run. Conclusions might be jumped to. A daughter of RR was already betrothed to the heir of the north, Lyanna's own brother.

BUT even if the message did not include kidnapping and rape, the insult to house Stark is still enormous. It's still inflammatory. This is not something that can be glossed over. Ned would not have rushed to KL, but Brandon was a different creature. His sister was being dishonored, so yes, he flew after them and threatened to kill the man who was dishonoring her.

Catelyn thinks of Littlefinger as clever but not wise. Littlefinger tells Alayne to always keep her hands clean. Whatever message that was delivered to Brandon while on his way to Riverrun for marriage was clearly inflammatory. Perhaps it didn't mention Lyanna as accompanying Rhaegar at all, since Brandon fails to mention his sister in his demands at King's Landing.

Some of this I addressed above, but I have to ask: why would Brandon have gone after Rhaegar if he didn't think Lyanna was involved?

I think the demand for Lyanna's return was implicit in his challenge to Rhaegar. Rhaegar, after all, was the man who bore the blame. He was the one who had dishonored his sister (there mere fact of the elopement is dishonor enough).

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

I think more important point to discuss would be how Varys and Littlefinger would react when they find out, along with rest of Westoros, that Jon is the product of Rhaegar and Lyanna affair /marriage AND that Jon is also Azor Ahai.

I imagine both will be peeing in their pants and realize that have been "OUTPLAYED" by Ned Stark, due to the fact all their carefully designed plans will be unraveled and destroyed by Jon's rise to power.

As much as I love that idea, and as much as I am convinced that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son, I still don't see how that would really play out:

1. How exactly is Jon going to reveal himself? The only person who theoretically knows about Jon being the spawn of R+L is Howland Reed, and I don't think his sphere of influence is all that wide. Forgive the pun, but his reach doesn't extend all that far.
   
2. So maybe people do believe that Jon is Aery's true heir... so what? Aery's line no longer sits on the throne. Maybe some of the old Targ loyalists might give a rip, but that's not enough to regain the throne from the Lannisters/Stannis/Aegon/Dany/Whomever else GRRM introduces in the last two books.
   

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

I think it will be more interesting how Carys responds, he's the one that seems to be working for a Targ restauration, though then again he might be working for an Aegon restauration and so have caused the targ downfall too.

To be fair, he's only interested in a "Targ restoration" in that he wants Aegon to be the kind of king that Aerys (in addition to most of his kin) was incapable of being: humble and not insane.

That is to say, that Varys isn't as interested in the Targs as much as he is interested in having a decent king for a change.

[Jon Icefyre]

Brandon Stark had previously dueled Littlefinger for the right to Cat and probably would have killed him if Cat didn't stop him. So maybe Brandon goes to KL to say, "Rhaegar you and my sister want to brake Lyanna's engagement to Robert and be together...ya over my dead body. If you want her your gonna have to duel/kill me first."

[FittleLinger]

Brandon Stark had previously dueled Littlefinger for the right to Cat and probably would have killed him if Cat didn't stop him. So maybe Brandon goes to KL to say, "Rhaegar you and my sister want to brake Lyanna's engagement to Robert and be together...ya over my dead body. If you want her your gonna have to duel/kill me first."

If I am not mistaken, I think Rickard was doing the talking. He said, 'Rhaegar, we know you are there, you kidnapped my daughter, come out you little bitch". And Aerys I think, said, "Ok, come inside and we'll talk about it". And when they got inside, we know what happened. I think they never even found out Rhaegar was not there.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong on the facts.

[shk12344]

As much as I love that idea, and as much as I am convinced that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son, I still don't see how that would really play out:

1. How exactly is Jon going to reveal himself? The only person who theoretically knows about Jon being the spawn of R+L is Howland Reed, and I don't think his sphere of influence is all that wide. Forgive the pun, but his reach doesn't extend all that far.
   
   
2. So maybe people do believe that Jon is Aery's true heir... so what? Aery's line no longer sits on the throne. Maybe some of the old Targ loyalists might give a rip, but that's not enough to regain the throne from the Lannisters/Stannis/Aegon/Dany/Whomever else GRRM introduces in the last two books.
   

Some of us see the book as a story of Jon and Dany living similar parellel lives destined to meet at the end either as a friend/lover or foe. For example Dany had her "birth" of Dragons in a funeral pyre and I expect similiar thing to happen to Jon Snow. I see Jon rising from the dead in a funeral pyre in front of onlookers, including Mel. When someone rises from the dead, it will get people talking. Eventually someone (probably Mel either through vision or detective work or perhaps Stannis), will be able to put two and two together and realize that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. (It's really not difficult to figure it out if you know the history of Roberts Rebellion, something Stannis should know better than anyone), I always felt that Howland Reed will merely confirm the fact to Jon Snow.

At the time of assasination, Jon Snow was already the second or third most powerful person in the North. He was the Lord Commander, had the support of thousands of wildlings, many in the North were beginning seek him out for support (Alys Karlstark) and of cousre there is the issue of Rob's will making him heir to Winterfell. Add to all those with the likely fact that he is destined to save the whole realm from the Others, it will eventually make Jon snow the most powerful person in the Westoros aside from Dany with her Dragons.

So basically he has the army, experience and the legal standing to claim the Iron Throne......IF he chooses to follow that path.

[Techelles]

If I am not mistaken, I think Rickard was doing the talking. He said, 'Rhaegar, we know you are there, you kidnapped my daughter, come out you little bitch". And Aerys I think, said, "Ok, come inside and we'll talk about it". And when they got inside, we know what happened. I think they never even found out Rhaegar was not there.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong on the facts.

I was unclear on Rickard, too. But apparently Brandon went to KL first and demanded Rhaegar. Aerys had him and his party arrested for treason, then summoned Rickard to KL to answer for Brandon's crime.

From the Wiki:

Before any of the marriages could take place Lyanna disappeared. Brandon held Rhaegar Targaryen, the heir to the throne, responsible and went with a small company of young nobles to King's Landing to challenge Rhaegar. Aerys II had them all imprisoned on charges of conspiring to kill the crown prince and summoned the fathers to answer for the crimes of their sons. The nobles went and were immediately murdered with their sons by Aerys.

[Lady Green]

@FittleLinger, yes that might be what Varys wants but in that team it's what Illyrio wants that's really the controlling facture and he may be more invested in Aegon for other reasons.

As to Littlefinger, I'm not sure he likes the idea of someone being in power that is outside his control, and Jon is Ned's son in deed (his honour etc.) So a half Stark half Targ King probably ain't what he wants.

[Narea]

To be fair, he's only interested in a "Targ restoration" in that he wants Aegon to be the kind of king that Aerys (in addition to most of his kin) was incapable of being: humble and not insane.

That is to say, that Varys isn't as interested in the Targs as much as he is interested in having a decent king for a change.

I wouldn't be too sure about that... He seems to suffer from some serious misconceptions (delusions?) when it comes to Aegon and if the true good of the realm was his real goal he wouldn't participate in further destabilization of government resulting in more deaths of smallfolk. After all in the game of throne it's always the smallfolk that suffers. Also, arguably, Robert was a great king in that that he let Jon Arryn rule in his name, his only downside was the debt yet Varys must have been planning for Aegon to take the IT for at least 10 years= long before whole fiasco of Joff's and Tommen's rule (and that could not even he predict).

If I am not mistaken, I think Rickard was doing the talking. He said, 'Rhaegar, we know you are there, you kidnapped my daughter, come out you little bitch". And Aerys I think, said, "Ok, come inside and we'll talk about it". And when they got inside, we know what happened. I think they never even found out Rhaegar was not there.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong on the facts.

You are wrong on the facts...Brandon and his companions rode to the walls of KL and Brandon yelled for Rheagar to come out and die. In case you don't know, to imagine a death of a king or a member of a royal family (especially a crown prince) is a high treason punishable by death...that's not even talking about actually threating to kill a crown prince so Aerys would have been well within his rights to kill Brandon right then. BUT he decided to call Rickard Stark to KL to account for his son's crime. Rickard came to KL from WF and called for a trial by combat for his son with him as his son's champion. This is where Aerys behaves inadequately for the first time. He declares wildfire to be champion of House Targaryen and sets Rickard on fire, Brandon strangles himself trying to get to his burning father. The outcome (deaths of both Starks) is the same as if Aerys bid one of the KG to fight but it is the cruelty of the deaths which bothers everyone. It still wouldn't be much of a cause for a rebellion were it not for the fact that then he decided to call on Jon Arryn to send both Ned and Robert to KL. JA is feeling overprotective and declines...we don't know if Aerys would have done anything to harm them, maybe he only wanted Ned to swear Aerys his fealty as new lord of WF. But JA's refusal to deliver them to KL instead calling his banners is an act of open rebellion and now both JA and Aerys must act accordingly...

We never get any mention of any attempt to get Lyanna back. Not even Brandon mentions her in his challenge to Rheagar (who isn't even there).

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Some of us see the book as a story of Jon and Dany living similar parellel lives destined to meet at the end either as a friend/lover or foe. For example Dany had her "birth" of Dragons in a funeral pyre and I expect similiar thing to happen to Jon Snow. I see Jon rising from the dead in a funeral pyre in front of onlookers, including Mel. When someone rises from the dead, it will get people talking. Eventually someone (probably Mel either through vision or detective work or perhaps Stannis), will be able to put two and two together and realize that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. (It's really not difficult to figure it out if you know the history of Roberts Rebellion, something Stannis should know better than anyone), I always felt that Howland Reed will merely confirm the fact to Jon Snow.

At the time of assasination, Jon Snow was already the second or third most powerful person in the North. He was the Lord Commander, had the support of thousands of wildlings, many in the North were beginning seek him out for support (Alys Karlstark) and of cousre there is the issue of Rob's will making him heir to Winterfell. Add to all those with the likely fact that he is destined to save the whole realm from the Others, it will eventually make Jon snow the most powerful person in the Westoros aside from Dany with her Dragons.

So basically he has the army, experience and the legal standing to claim the Iron Throne......IF he chooses to follow that path.

Amongst other possible impediments to this idea... who in the realm is going to care about or legitimize anything in Robb's will?

[FittleLinger]

Yep, thanks for correcting me everyone, I was wrong indeed.

[Techelles]

One other point I'd make. We've established that there's a window of about a year in which the duel could have taken place. I think we can narrow it down a bit more. Bear with me.

Brandon was in RR when his betrothal to Cat was announced. So LF dueled him. MtnLion told us that LF convalesced in RR for about a fortnight before he was able to be moved, and Hoster had him sent back to the Fingers as soon as he could. We also know that Brandon heard about Lyanna on his way to RR to wed Cat. So if LF saw Lyanna with Rhaegar, it would have had to have been not much longer than a month or so after the duel, because he was on his way home within about 20 days.

But if the marriage was set for only a month after the duel, would Brandon have had time to leave RR? (Again, Brandon heard about Lyanna on his way to RR to wed Cat.) Wouldn't he have just stayed? Winterfell is a long ride...it'd take about a full month to get there and back. But why bother with the trip? Sure, it's not certain that he went to Winterfell, but that's the most likely place, and really, any other significant location presents the same problem. So there was probably a period of at least a few months between the duel and the wedding date.

Given this, I think it's safe to say that LF was well out of the picture before Lyanna ran off with Rhaegar.

[MtnLion]

@FittleLinger, yes that might be what Varys wants but in that team it's what Illyrio wants that's really the controlling facture and he may be more invested in Aegon for other reasons.

As to Littlefinger, I'm not sure he likes the idea of someone being in power that is outside his control, and Jon is Ned's son in deed (his honour etc.) So a half Stark half Targ King probably ain't what he wants.

It is difficult to know what Varys really wants. One thing that does stand out for me is that Varys, while deliberately misleading, has always spoken the truth. That is quite the opposite of Littlefinger who has mislead with lies. Varys did warn Aerys that Rhaegar was establishing ties with the Lords of Westeros at Harrenhal, but he also warns that Tywin may not be coming to the rescue. So, apparently Varys is supporting the mad king, and thus all Targaryens. Varys seems to support exactly what he says he supports, and conveying that to Jon, I see him supporting Jon (behind Aegon since he seems to think Aegon is the real heir).