[Sample] Arianne I, round 2

[KittensRuleBeetsDrool]

Hm, I just had another thought, rather crackpotty - there could be a Dance of the Dragons with Dany versus Euron Greyjoy. One of the prophecies talked about the biggest danger to Dany being "a tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood" and that sounds like Euron. It is likely that he is tailing Victarion and his fleet to Meereen, and he might have the "real" dragon horn and have given Vic some sort of fake. Also, Euron is smart enough to have brushed up on Dragon Taming 101 before setting out to claim Dany and her dragons. I don't think that Euron is one of the three heads of the dragon (as he has no Targaryen blood that we know of) but he might succeed in getting hold of a dragon at least for a little while and make things difficult for Dany. Possible ending: Euron and Victarion becoming dragon barbecue, Dany and/or her supporters seizing hold of the Iron Fleet and making for Westeros.

I'm crackpotting about other figures than Aegon participating in a second Dance of the Dragons just because GRRM might not go for the obvious. Also because the last Dance ended with the defeat of Rhaenyra and the establishment of a Salic Law for the Targaryens (no woman could inherit in her own right, so distant male relatives had precedent over sisters) this Dance I can see ending in triumph for the woman (Daenerys) and the establishment of a female ruler.

Link to definition and history of Salic Law: http://womenshistory.about.com/od/laws/a/salic_law.htm

[Dogpile]

“Have you seen these others in your fires?” Tyrion asked, warily. “Only their shadows,” Moqorro said. “One most of all. A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood.”

I always wondered about this, Victaron was on his way to Dany not Euron, but clearly Moqorro is referring to Euron. Victaron says all Euron's gifts are poison alluding to the horn. Maybe Euron gets control of one of the dragons at Mereen while Dany is still in the Dothraki sea? Then Dany comes back with Drogon and they have a little Dance. Not all that crackpotty. A longshot.....sure.

[Lord Godric]

I think some people are taking this "Dance of the Dragons" a little too far. We know exactly what that refers to historically, and I think it would mean exactly the same thing again. Writers are not out to confuse or flat out lie to their readers. They place small clues, like a little girl saying there will be a dance of dragons, that many readers overlook the first time (and I bet most don't even know the history and what that means in Westeros' history). I think that the dance will be Aegon v. Dany.

[Jon Icefyre]

I think some people are taking this "Dance of the Dragons" a little too far. We know exactly what that refers to historically, and I think it would mean exactly the same thing again. Writers are not out to confuse or flat out lie to their readers. They place small clues, like a little girl saying there will be a dance of dragons, that many readers overlook the first time (and I bet most don't even know the history and what that means in Westeros' history). I think that the dance will be Aegon v. Dany.

I agree with this 100% I've been saying this for so long. People are so set on this fairytale ending. That Dany and Aegon are just gonna decide to make peace and sit around the campfire and sing kumbuya, yet they choose to ignore clues and hints that suggest the opposite like Aegon abandoning Dany to make for Westeros, Dany's "mummers dragon" prophecy(there is no way in hell Dany won't think about the prophecy when she hears about Aegon), or the fact that GRRM has already confirmed there will most likely be a second dance of dragons before the series is over and then goes on to give us more hints in this sample chapter to further suggest this. But somehow people still think Dany and Aegon will get married? If you know what a dance of dragons is then you know it has to be Targ vs Targ, so unless Jon Snow somehow finds out his true identity soon and magically leaves north to get involved with southern politics I'd say a second dance of dragons(which again GRRM has said will probably happen) has to be Dany vs Aegon

[Nelapsi]

I agree. It can only be D vs (f)A. Jon is out of the picture, we don't know if he is still alive, and even if he is he must find out who he really is first. Things that take time.

[Dogpile]

I think some people are taking this "Dance of the Dragons" a little too far. We know exactly what that refers to historically, and I think it would mean exactly the same thing again. Writers are not out to confuse or flat out lie to their readers. They place small clues, like a little girl saying there will be a dance of dragons, that many readers overlook the first time (and I bet most don't even know the history and what that means in Westeros' history). I think that the dance will be Aegon v. Dany.

And I agree. We were exploring some other possible alternatives but I've always believed Red Vs Black Dragon in Westeros.

I think seven is impossible at this point, given how little happened in most plotlines in ADWD, and especially since Dany is still not leaving Essos and the Others haven't invaded yet. So my hopes are for a maximum of eight, but if TWOW is as slow as ADWD...

nc

And I agree....... precisely because the Dance of the Dragons got pushed out of the book entitled "Dance with Dragons" and into TWOW.

[aryagonnakill]

Will they? I remember nothing about them having any commitments to Selmy or Meereen. IIRC Barristan spared their lives for a cost (get him in touch with Tattered Prince) and they did that. So presumably they are indeed already on their way. They were sentenced to die before Barristan agreed to secretly let them go. They wouldn't hang around and push their luck.

They have no loyalties committed to Barristan, but they are trapped in Mereen AT LEAST until and if Victarion sends them home. Past that, they are there until Tyrion/Dany sends them home.

[GoldenVale]

They have no loyalties committed to Barristan, but they are trapped in Mereen AT LEAST until and if Victarion sends them home. Past that, they are there until Tyrion/Dany sends them home.

The only reason I can't be sure of that is that as far as I know there is no specific mention of how must time has passed in the sample chapters. True while they might be stuck I doubt they'd help Barristan anyway. He made it clear that his only price was getting a connection to the TP and he got that. Plus Barristan has nothing to offer them now that he set them free. Sure he could threaten them but I doubt that he would.

[not in the face]

After reading this thread, a few things;

1. If Doran went to Aegon to negotiate an alliance, how would Aegon like the fact of a cripple being his biggest ally? Aegon needs him now but when peace is achieved, he is like to brush Dorne off becuase what is that cautious wheel chair riding cripple going to do to him? Him going makes Dorne look bad and he does not want to seem weak. He sends Arianne because it is his words, her mouth making Arianne seem a worthy ally as she is the heir to Dorne. This is not all that dangerous a mission to me imo. JC would never hurt a dornish princess. Even if they won't ally with Aegon, Dorne would probably not be their enemy.

2. Aegon is 16 and a virgin. Any girl who send it his way is like to own him and bed him. Elia, Arianne, who cares? I have a feeling Doran knows something about the real Aegon that no one else knows. Like a birthmark or something but they need Aegon's clothes off to see it.

3. That dragon dream girl could have green dreams like Jojen. The Blackwoods still keep the old gods in the riverlands and Dorne has always been independant so it is plausible that first men still live down there. Osha and her crew were on their way to Dorne. That family could be made of wildlings that crossed over the wall long ago. Who knows how long the white walkers have been around. Those wildling ladies tell Sam that Gilly's brothers are coming so the Others have been stiring since before the events of a game thrones.

[Tini]

Allying with a cripple would not make Aegon look weak. But Doran could not go and meet Aegon, least of all secretly. Because of his illness, he doesn't travel much, he travels slowly, and KL will take note if he leaves Sunpsear, let alone Dorne. He might even die of exertion before he reached Aegon.

Sending Arianne is a smart move. Even if Arianne is shocked by her father's growing frailty, there is no reason to suspect that he won't last to see her return. He told her that he is leaving the decision about Aegon to her. But whatever her decision will be, as long as he lives, Doran can overrule it.

I suspect that Doran may not rely solely on Arianne for forming his decision. Daemon Sand, for example, might also collect information for him. Given what Doran knows about Arianne, that would be smart, too.

I don't think Doran knows anything about Aegon, least of all birthmarks. If he did, he would not be so unsure how to proceed.

[Razha]

I think birthmarks and things like that would be extremely trashy and bad taste... ASOIAF may be saga but not soap opera

[Ser Cortnay Penrose]

2. Aegon is 16 and a virgin. Any girl who send it his way is like to own him and bed him. Elia, Arianne, who cares? I have a feeling Doran knows something about the real Aegon that no one else knows. Like a birthmark or something but they need Aegon's clothes off to see it.

She's also got "pretty Jayne Ladybright" with her for some reason. I don't know, you could be on to something.

[GoldenVale]

After reading this thread, a few things;

1. If Doran went to Aegon to negotiate an alliance, how would Aegon like the fact of a cripple being his biggest ally? Aegon needs him now but when peace is achieved, he is like to brush Dorne off becuase what is that cautious wheel chair riding cripple going to do to him? Him going makes Dorne look bad and he does not want to seem weak. He sends Arianne because it is his words, her mouth making Arianne seem a worthy ally as she is the heir to Dorne. This is not all that dangerous a mission to me imo. JC would never hurt a dornish princess. Even if they won't ally with Aegon, Dorne would probably not be their enemy.

2. Aegon is 16 and a virgin. Any girl who send it his way is like to own him and bed him. Elia, Arianne, who cares? I have a feeling Doran knows something about the real Aegon that no one else knows. Like a birthmark or something but they need Aegon's clothes off to see it.

3. That dragon dream girl could have green dreams like Jojen. The Blackwoods still keep the old gods in the riverlands and Dorne has always been independant so it is plausible that first men still live down there. Osha and her crew were on their way to Dorne. That family could be made of wildlings that crossed over the wall long ago. Who knows how long the white walkers have been around. Those wildling ladies tell Sam that Gilly's brothers are coming so the Others have been stiring since before the events of a game thrones.

1. While there is some sense in the thought about looking weak I think that was only a minor reason. Doran's health prohibits him from any kind of extensive travel, AndI doubt JonCon would never let Aegon throw away Dorne so easily regardless of who Dorne sends to parlay with him. The mission isn't dangerous just because Argon/JonCon, it's mostly dangerous because if any other part of Westeros learns of the journey Dorne is screwed. He sent Arianne 1) He couldn't do it himself because it'd be noticed and because of his health and 2) Arianne is the next logical choice.

2. While I'm sure being young and inexperienced could work against him, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss him. JonCon is like to stamp out any of that kind of thing. If push comes to shove JonCon could just do what Tyrion did and arrange to have and get Aegon a "friend" of his own choosing to blow off steam with.

And I very much doubt there's a birthmark. How is it we've after hearing so many characters, some of whom may well have known that Aegon would of had a birthmark (including the people who arranged his death) talk about Aegon, specifically about how his head was turned into unrecognizable mush and not hear about some distinct birthmark?

[aryagonnakill]

After reading this thread, a few things;

1. If Doran went to Aegon to negotiate an alliance, how would Aegon like the fact of a cripple being his biggest ally? Aegon needs him now but when peace is achieved, he is like to brush Dorne off becuase what is that cautious wheel chair riding cripple going to do to him? Him going makes Dorne look bad and he does not want to seem weak. He sends Arianne because it is his words, her mouth making Arianne seem a worthy ally as she is the heir to Dorne. This is not all that dangerous a mission to me imo. JC would never hurt a dornish princess. Even if they won't ally with Aegon, Dorne would probably not be their enemy.

2. Aegon is 16 and a virgin. Any girl who send it his way is like to own him and bed him. Elia, Arianne, who cares? I have a feeling Doran knows something about the real Aegon that no one else knows. Like a birthmark or something but they need Aegon's clothes off to see it.

3. That dragon dream girl could have green dreams like Jojen. The Blackwoods still keep the old gods in the riverlands and Dorne has always been independant so it is plausible that first men still live down there. Osha and her crew were on their way to Dorne. That family could be made of wildlings that crossed over the wall long ago. Who knows how long the white walkers have been around. Those wildling ladies tell Sam that Gilly's brothers are coming so the Others have been stiring since before the events of a game thrones.

I see nothing odd about sending Arianne, and there are definitely multiple reasons for doing so. Even if it's not in Aegon's best interest a marriage could be seen as being in Dornes best interest. Plus everything you said. But I have to disagree with your second quote. I am not saying Aegon could not become whipped, but I think the likelihood of someone who see's himself as king becoming whipped is small. After a 16 year old conquers storms end, ya he's gonna be pumped up and horny no doubt, but If you look at the short part of the convo we get in the last Jon Con chapter, Aegon is becoming confident and in charge. I see a woman being able to whisper in his ear like Dany did to Drago, but not more, I could be wrong.

[cuendillar]

Elia makes perfect sense to send with the embassy. It's no big stretch to assume she has ambitions of a knighthood, which invariably requires some time as a squire. However, it can't be easy to find someone willing to take on a girl under most circumstances.

I consider it very likely that she'll seek to squire for Aegon. With her royal blood and already-acquired skill, it's quite likely that he accepts - especially if he falls for her. Bastardry doesn't seem to be that big of a disadvantage in this aspect, and she's hardly the typical one-night-stand-bastard anyway. Aegon would probably be able to give her the knighthood in time, at least if he manages to press his claim. Ellaria might well approve of this plan as it gives some measure of protection. Keeping a Sand Snake out of risks entirely is probably futile.

As we know from Renly and Loras, such a relationship could lead to something more intimate too. Aegon is certainly attractive enough for it, though they both know he'll have to marry someone else eventually.

[GoldenVale]

Elia makes perfect sense to send with the embassy. It's no big stretch to assume she has ambitions of a knighthood, which invariably requires some time as a squire. However, it can't be easy to find someone willing to take on a girl under most circumstances.

I consider it very likely that she'll seek to squire for Aegon. With her royal blood and already-acquired skill, it's quite likely that he accepts - especially if he falls for her. Bastardry doesn't seem to be that big of a disadvantage in this aspect, and she's hardly the typical one-night-stand-bastard anyway. Aegon would probably be able to give her the knighthood in time, at least if he manages to press his claim. Ellaria might well approve of this plan as it gives some measure of protection. Keeping a Sand Snake out of risks entirely is probably futile.

As we know from Renly and Loras, such a relationship could lead to something more intimate too. Aegon is certainly attractive enough for it, though they both know he'll have to marry someone else eventually.

Why would Doran choose now of all times and Aegon of all people? He's not even sure if Aegon and JonCon are who they say they are.

I don't think he'd move that fast to leave his brother's daughter in the hands of two people who 1) He can't even be sure of and 2) are currently going to be facing off against most of Westeros.

And I'm pretty sure the Prince of Dorne would find no trouble finding a Dornish house to take on Elia. Even if she is a bastard.

[cuendillar]

Why would Doran choose now of all times and Aegon of all people? He's not even sure if Aegon and JonCon are who they say they are.

I don't think he'd move that fast to leave his brother's daughter in the hands of two people who 1) He can't even be sure of and 2) are currently going to be facing off against most of Westeros.

And I'm pretty sure the Prince of Dorne would find no trouble finding a Dornish house to take on Elia. Even if she is a bastard.

I admit I was unclear. Certainly her bastardry would be no problem at all, the Sand Snakes seems to be respected. Her gender is the bigger issue, it could get very awkward if it results in a one-way attraction. Among a squires duties is to dress the knight for battle, though that's obviously a minor part. There's also a tons of sexual innuendos in words that would inevitably be used often, like lance, riding, tumble or the like. Could lead to awkward misunderstandings, especially in the one-way attraction scenario. I don't know which direction would be worst.

I'm well aware that such issues might result due to homosexuality as well, but that usually seems to be kept at a more low-key level.

I do agree with you that the decision to direct her to a sellsword company is uncharacteristically risky for Doran (or Ellaria). There's no way to know that it'll work out better there. Thus, I very much agree that she has other purposes as well. I heard it suggested that part of her purpose is to demonstrate to Arianne the dangers of recklessness, so that she won't be so prune to it herself. It might also be a test for Connington's autenticity, if Doran is aware of how he felt for Elia and Lyanna. Elia's name and Lyanna's mannerisms might provoke a specific reaction from him, should he be the real deal.

One of the presumably safest position (near the front lines) is probably as the squire of a general or high lord. Unless they lead from the front (which there is no way for Doran to predetermine), the commanders tend to fall last in battle. Squires also tend to be kept away from the worst of the fighting, as their tasks are mainly taking place before and after the actual fighting. It still might be enough to keep her back, and should Aegon's side lose, she is too valuable a prisoner to not be taken as a hostage. As long as she's kept off the actual battlefield, she's actually moderately safe.

You do make a point that Aegon might not, or even is not, the one intended for her. I do think she's there to learn something though.

Finding out whether they're dealing with a Connington is one of the embassy's primary tasks. That's actually more emphasized than Aegon's authenticity. If Jon is just a clever sellsword, that means Aegon will be universally considered a bluff, while if he's real people would be much less likely to reject Aegon out of hand. That's also the only identity that could be established with any level of confidence. They have really a two-fold test for that right away - Arianne's seduction attempt (likely fake if he accepts) and Elia's similarity to Lyanna/Elia M. (likely real if consistent reaction)

[rivergirl]

I think Doran chose Arianne's companions very carefully.

Joss Hood and Garibald Shells: Serious and dutiful, wholly devoted to getting Arianne to Aegon without anything going wrong. So far, they don't seem like the types to try and bed her along the way, either. "Ladies don't joust," and sworn shields don't sleep with Princesses.

Nate: Well, someone needed to take care of the ravens.

Jayne Ladybright: A proper lady, and pretty but not a Sand Snake. Attractive enough to distract any potential men from Arianne, but not close enough to Arianne to hatch any schemes with her. She's also presumably the daughter of Alyse Ladybright, who Doran obviously trusts as he left her in charge of Sunspear's accounts. Taking that into account, we can deduce that Arianne and Jayne would know each other, but since she hasn't been mentioned before, they aren't particularly close. Considering Arianne's past actions, it's safer to send her with an acquaintance than a very close friend.

Elia Sand: I think Elia is there to remind Arianne of what is at stake. Firstly, her name is Elia. Just talking to the child would remind Arianne of what her father wants, and what she is trying to do for her family. Then there's Elia's personality. Elia is rash and wild and impulsive, exactly the way Arianne can't be any more. Arianne can't go wandering off, and she certainly can't start making out with boys because she's bored. The fact that she has to tell Elia off for doing both those things is a reflection on how Arianne has had to grow up and stop acting like the reckless, lustful child she was before. She's taking responsibility for Elia and herself at the same time.

Daemon Sand: I doubt it was an accident that Doran sent Arianne with someone she's got such a past with, and i suspect Doran thinks the same as a lot of us do- that Daemon is in love with Arianne. Considering their past and Arianne's nature, he would also know that Daemon would be a source of temptation for his daughter. But let's look at Daemon in relation to Aegon.

Daemon is attractive to Arianne- a reminder that although he's handsome, that doesn't mean he should be her husband. His presence would make Arianne think the same about Aegon. Just because he's handsome doesn't mean he really is who he claims to be. Just like with Daemon, she can't let herself be distracted by his looks and forget about his birth. She's the Princess of Dorne and if he's not really Rhaegar and Elia's son, she has to do what she did with Daemon and put him aside for the sake of her duty.

Arianne has been known to overlook someone's nature in favour of their looks before (read: she now realises that Darkstar was a terrible idea) and she needs to remember not to do the same with Aegon. With Daemon having an affection for Arianne, he's not likely to let her go all swoony over Aegon if he's a complete asshole. Daemon is also one of the few people we've seen stand up to her, especially considering that she's the Princess and he's a bastard. Nonetheless, he still rejected her offer to share a bed. That indicates that, if he had suspicions about Aegon, he wouldn't hesitate to voice them to Arianne. He cares about her, maybe even loves her, and we know she is attracted to him too. With him there nagging at the back of her mind, it would be harder for her to be blinded by Aegon's charm and forget about what she's there for.

[Tini]

If Daemon Sand is still in love with Arianne, he might actually try to convince Arianne that Aegon is fake if he realizes that Arianne is attracted to Aegon.

Arianne is attracted to pretty faces but she isn't very good at recognizing other virtues. That is not really surprising as her father is no good at reading people either.

Otherwise he would not have been surprised at Oberyn challenging the Mountain, or by Arianne's actions. I am sure he'll be surprised to learn of Quentyn's fate, too. His only attempt at teaching Arianne to rule Dorne seems to be the story about the first Daenerys after Arianne screwed up with Myrcella. (An attempt made only after Doran sent off Quentyn to woo Daenerys - which finally laid to rest any plans of making Arianne queen and Quentyn Prince of Dorne.) It certainly took Doran a long time to realize that he has lost the Dornish.

Now he is practically forced to ally with Aegon, real or fake, because the Dornish believe in Aegon and will not allow Doran to fail his nephew as he failed Elia and Oberyn. No wonder that Doran desperately wants news of Daenerys (and by extension, Quentyn). If Daenerys accepted his offer, the Dornish will understand his reluctance to ally with Aegon. If not, he is free to ally with Aegon instead. He doesn't know how to resolve this mess, so he leaves it to Arianne.

Arianne, at least, opposed her father when he remained inactive after Oberyn's death. I don't know if that will be enough to make the Dornish follow her instead of Aegon, they certainly won't follow Doran.

Doran's choice of companions, therefore, may not be as carefully planned as others have suggested. Arianne's closest friends (with exception of the Sand Snakes) are not available to accompany her - all were "punished" for their involvement in the Myrcella plot, calling them back to Sunspear would raise unwanted attention. The older Sand Snakes are not available to accompany her, either, as they have important missions of their own. Elia Sand is along to distract from their absence.

Daemon Sand was chosen for loyalty - loyalty that may be based on love for Arianne, but also loyalty based on friendship. He spoke up when the Sand Snakes were arrested, even though that got him arrested as well. He dared ask for permission to marry Arianne when everybody knew how that would turn out, so he's got courage, too. And he is a skilled fighter. I think Doran sent him for these reasons, but Arianne doesn't know that, just as she doesn't understand Daemon's feelings.

He is the only companion who knows the details of Arianne's mission. That shows trust on Doran's part, and should encourage Arianne to do the same. Her other companions don't know - they are just filler.

[Ciella]

I have a theory as to why Elia S. is there, but it involves a lot of "ifs".

IF Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree (which I believe she was) and this was how/why Rheagar fell for her, he probably told his close friend about it at one point (Jon Con). And IF Doran somehow also has access to this info (perhaps through Elia the first) then Elia S. might be along to provoke some kind of reaction from Jon Con. A real Jon Con might go "Hey, you know Lyanna could also wield a mean lance at her age". Where a fake Jon Con might go "A girl!? With a lance!? That's dumb!". She could be a Jon Connington detector.