Fez Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Hmm, not sure what Bibi was so worried about then. Unless his tactics the past couple days worked and he was in a slide up to the weekend. Although, considering how complicated processing Israeli election results are, who know how accurate exit polls actually are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lumer Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Hmm, not sure what Bibi was so worried about then. Unless his tactics the past couple days worked and he was in a slide up to the weekend. Although, considering how complicated processing Israeli election results are, who know how accurate exit polls actually are there. The exit polls are usually pretty accurate, plus-minus one parliament member. Sadly, it most likely means Netanyahu is still our PM, of a very right-wing government Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Jerusalem Post has the full exit polls up now, including the smaller parties. Channel 2's poll had the Likud with 28 mandates, Zionist Union with 27 mandates, the Joint Arab List with 13 mandates, Yesh Atid with 12 mandates, Kulanu with 9 mandates, Bayit Yehudi with 8 mandates, Shas with 7 mandates, United Torah Judaism with 6 mandates, Meretz with 5 mandates, Yisrael Beytenu with 5 mandates and Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold. Channel 10's polls had the Zionist Union with 27 mandates, the Likud with 27 mandates, the Joint Arab List with 13 mandates, Yesh Atid with 11 mandates, Kulanu with10 mandates, Bayit Yehudi with 8 mandates, Shas with 7 mandates, United Torah Judaism with 7 mandates, Meretz with 5 mandates, Yisrael Beytenu with 5 mandates and Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold. Channel 1's polls had the Zionist Union with 27 mandates, the Likud with 27 mandates, the Joint Arab List with 13 mandates, Yesh Atid with 12 mandates, Kulanu with 10 mandates, Bayit Yehudi with 9 mandates, Shas with 7 mandates, United Torah Judaism with 6 mandates, Meretz with 5 mandates, Yisrael Beytenu with 5 mandates and Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold. Isn't Yahad a right wing party? So if they didn't make the cut that seems like it would hurt Likud's chances of putting a government together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galactus Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Can someone give me a rundown of what the Israeli parties are this time? Someone did for the last election but there seems to be a few names I don't remember.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datepalm Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Nothing much has changed - Yachad splintered off of Shas and joined with some scary clowns too far right for Bayit Yehudi, (which is saying something.) Them not making the cutoff is mildly cheering but not particularly significant in the coalition building project (this is a party that probably would have been kept out of government anyway). Joint Arab List is what it says on the tin, the three Arab parties (or two Arab parties and mostly Arab communist party) making a punchy but ideological basketcase of a list (commies+islamists+Baathists.) It seems to have gotten them another two mandates, which is nice, but expectations were as high as 15, so not a staggering success by any means. Widespread expectations that they'll split back into three or at least two parties sooner rather than later. Koolanu is a Likud minister who quit back in the 2013 cycle and put together this party as sort of socially conservative, economically progressive (at least notionally) party, going for the Likud's old working class Mizrachi roots, etc, blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datepalm Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Well. Fuck. Stupid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lumer Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Fuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galactus Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm really quite amazed at how person-centered Israeli politics is. Would it be wrong to say that apart from Likud and Labour, all the others are essentially vehicles for various politicians? Most of them seems to be "Those two guys had a fight, so they made their own party. With blackjack and hookers." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lumer Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm really quite amazed at how person-centered Israeli politics is. Would it be wrong to say that apart from Likud and Labour, all the others are essentially vehicles for various politicians? Most of them seems to be "Those two guys had a fight, so they made their own party. With blackjack and hookers." Yes and no. The new "trend" parties are like that, but the old school parties like the jewish ashkenazi Orthodox party have well defined agendas that their constituencies relate to. The result in these elections are in a way not surprising: When you look at blocks instead of parties, there were not a lot of shifts. Mostly shifts within the right and left blocks, and some hemorrhaging of the center block to both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darzin Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Is this article correct that the Arab parties can block Netanyahu from forming a government and do you think it will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lumer Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Is this article correct that the Arab parties can block Netanyahu from forming a government and do you think it will happen? No. first it is based on wrong results. The true results (well 99%...) show more power to Likud. Second, Netanyahu has more then one option of a coalition, one of these will surely succeed. The Arabs and Left don't have enough power to block, given that the "center" parties will mostly likely go to coalition, one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darzin Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Ah well then can't say I'm pleased but thanks for answering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How disappointing. I understand that polling in Israel isn't always that accurate, but I'm surprised the exit polls missed the mark as well. Any chance the coalition is with the center parties, or did Likud get enough to just make a government with the rest of the right and the religious parties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Once and Future King Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Pulled from the broader ME thread: Bibi may be best positioned to form a government, even if Likud comes in second. But doesn't the President always give the largest party the first opportunity to form a government (hence my question about what if the Arab List ever comes in first)? And I think the Zionist Union could eventually get something together, even if it almost certainly requires some centrist deal making. Also, if Likud loses, does Bibi even stay on as party leader? I saw a quote from an anonymous Likud official saying that a win would be great because the party would stay in power but a loss would be great too because it would mean the party could move on to the next generation of leaders (and that fresh faces could provide a major bolster the election after this one).The president does not automatically ask the biggest party to form the government. He asks the party he thinks has the greatest chance of success. Also evrey party leader can tell him which party they would like to see form a governmentSo in answer to your question above, with all likelyness Bibi will be prime minister Kahalon with be finance ministerBennet will take defenceShas will take educationLieberman will take interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galactus Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 EDIT: Wrong thread :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biglose Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Impressive feat be Netanyahu to pull things around like that. Very impressive indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Impressive feat be Netanyahu to pull things around like that. Very impressive indeed. Good job leveraging a last-minute appeal to fear and racism, plus a repudiation of the two-state solution that he walked back 48 hours later. If nothing else, Netanyahu is an accomplished political survivor. Too bad he's willing to do so much damage to his country's polity and international relationships just to cling to power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Why is Israel swinging so hard to the right? It used to be a fairly cosmoplitan. More like Europe than the US. What has happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Why is Israel swinging so hard to the right? It used to be a fairly cosmoplitan. More like Europe than the US. What has happened? I am not an expert by any means, but I assumed that demographic shifts are a big part of the reason - ultra orthodox groups are having way more children, and as a result, far right groups have a growing support base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Thursday Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Why is Israel swinging so hard to the right? It used to be a fairly cosmoplitan. More like Europe than the US. What has happened? I saw an interesting article a while back (was it linked to on here?) that suggested media was a big factor - eg. many Israelis only see the aftermath of Palistinian rocket fire and are shielded from seeing what their own security forces are up to. I suspect that when you add this sort of polarisation to a country that has such a turbulent political/military landscape you are bound to get people gravitating towards the ends of the political spectrum. It's difficult to maintain moderate views in the face of such an emotive issue. Call it the politics of fear and racism if you like (I don't think I'd argue too much on that point), but it seems to me it's more of a result of the media around the issue than the politicians themselves (caveat: I don't know how much political control over the media there is in Israel). ST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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