R+L=J v.40

[Little Red Riding Hood]

@ Little Red Riding Hood

Robert thaught that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, but maybe she just willingly rode off with him but someone changed the story maybe for his or her own purpose there is a theory about LF giving Brandon a false story and I have my own about Varys spreading a rumour.

It could be, of course, but my question is: why would she do that? (its will be a scandal to his house, to his brothers, for Baratheon) because either willingly or "kidnaped" always be a problem.

Why not just get married instead?

[Greymoon]

Do I need to follow the breadcrumbs further back to get the point across? I took issue with your first paragraph/supposition in one of multiple supposition posts, where it appears that you are trying to cobble together a bunch of baseless suppositions to get the result that you want. To understand why R+L=J you need to look at the evidence without preconceived notions/desires. Once you can accomplish this you will see how utterly transparent GRRM has been in telling us all along. That includes moving the players about, they will leave a trail, especially if Varys looks for them. You need to look carefully at the timeline, too. Barristan never saw Ashara's stillborn girl, though I think that she was born at King's Landing. The fact that Ashara lingered at King's Landing long enough after Harrenhal to deliver (probably three or more months before the beginning of the rebellion) is controversial. Barristan knows that Ashara leapt to her death, and he certainly did not see that.

What in these posts suggest that I don't believe R+L? I've said it before I just don't believe they would have planned to stay at the ToJ for a long time.

Maybe the multiple supposition post wasn't very clear, but what I was trying to do was a sort of brainstorming of things plausible with R+L=J in mind. I've stated that some of them are contradictory and the point was to engage discussion and possibly come up with a way to make sense of everything we know/think we know. I added my own two nuts to theories I've read on this forum and speculated on some other things. That was the intention, either way.

I really feel misunderstood... :blushing:

[Greymoon]

But those deductions are still based on the realm of possibility in the timeline GRRM has given us. There's only so much the characters could have accomplished concerning the events of the TOJ in the timeline we have, so it's safe to make certain assumptions based on the information GRRM has previously given us and based on the actual timeline. If you want to make decuctions based on what GRRM hasn't given us yet then you have to make sure it goes along with the timeline and the previous information GRRM has given us.

Peace? :bowdown:

[Jon Icefyre]

Peace? :bowdown:

Hahaha if only the Starks and Lannisters could have reached this point. For what it's worth I know it get's really annoying when you're trying to come up with a theory to also have to worry about all the rules/guides that come along with making a solid theory/argument on this forum, or the members of this forum like me will undoubtly badger you about if you don't. But it's what seperates this forum from other forums that literally consist of people arguing about their own thoughts the entire time and not the actual evidence provided in the books which gets them no where close of understanding each other anytime soon. Trust me I know the badgering get's annoying for you, but it's greater purpose is to enhance/make sure the disucussions on this forum are actually productive. :cheers:

[Greymoon]

Hahaha if only the Starks and Lannisters could have reached this point. For what it's worth I know it get's really annoying when you're trying to come up with a theory to also have to worry about all the rules/guides that come along with making a solid theory/argument on this forum, or the members of this forum like me will undoubtly badger you about if you don't. But it's what seperates this forum from other forums that literally consist of people arguing about their own thoughts the entire time and not the actual evidence provided in the books which gets them no where close of understanding each other anytime soon. Trust me I know the badgering get's annoying for you, but it's greater purpose is to enhance/make sure the disucussions on this forum are actually productive. :cheers:

Alright, got yah. :cheers:

[FittleLinger]

Damn it, I was writing the comment of the year, but I lost it :D

Long story short, Greymoon, don't feel so frustrated when "old" people bash you, it's been covered and that's where the annoying comes from. Same for them, don't bash "new" people, cause they are new and might have not read everything that you've read\posted.

Point is, arguments point that way. If you put an argument of "something else might have happened", it's good to point out textual proof, because otherwise it just seems contrived, biased, and simply anti if you don't have what to base it on.

So that's it, noone should feel subhuman if they don't agree, it's not the point at all. It's just that here we are trying to work with facts. If they don't exist, well, then we are right until proven wrong.

[WhiteGhost]

Again I'd reiterate that I still consider R+L=J to be the most likely conclusion to this mystery but I don't believe it's as foregone as most. To put in another example I consider Dany to be the most likely candidate for AA but that doesn't make it canon (and I'm well aware I'm on the wrong board for promoting the idea.

I think Bran will be Azor Azai, I also think he'll ride a dragon eventually. He's "the One" according to Coldhands, IIRC.

[Alia of the knife]

Jon and Prince Rhaegar, (without the helm), from the graphic novel.

http://www.imagebam.com/image/fb26a8214244640

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

They probably shouldn't have done that, Jon is suppose to look like Ned.

[Alia of the knife]

Jon and Lyanna from the same graphic novel:

http://www.imagebam....20add6200156914

(Lyanna is the next image after Jons).

[J. Stargaryen]

Wow. The artist made Lyanna out to be quite busty. Now I know why Robert was pissed that Rhaegar took her. For that matter, now I know why Rhaegar took her.

[Sasha Steelsong]

The graphic novel images really do help reinforce the theory. Not saying that they are cannon but wow is Jon a combo of those two!

[Jon Icefyre]

Wow. The artist made Lyanna out to be quite busty. Now I know why Robert was pissed that Rhaegar took her. For that matter, now I know why Rhaegar took her.

Hahahahahahaha

[Alia of the knife]

Wow. The artist made Lyanna out to be quite busty. Now I know why Robert was pissed that Rhaegar took her. For that matter, now I know why Rhaegar took her.

The graphic novel images really do help reinforce the theory. Not saying that they are cannon but wow is Jon a combo of those two!

:laugh: I know. I'm a woman, and firmly in the corner of men, but when I saw that adaptation, I was like "WOW."

If she was the KotLT, which I think she was, (and given the latest Arianne chapter from tWoW, and Elia sands behavior, I think it confirms Lyanna was), I'm wondering how she stuffed "them" into her armour.

I think it's possible that Martin may want to get this issue behind him, so he can let Jon get on with his destiny. It's a "filler" until he comes clean with Jons parentage, because Martin has to sign off on these images and their implications.

Just the reveal of Rhaegar was something.

[thegreatwhitebear]

I don't know for sure that jon even has to be resurrected. We aren't given the full extent of his wounds, other than a knife to the gut and one in the back. Its possible that he passed out from shock and blood loss. Remember, there r others around who could've stopped the assassination attempt before any major damage was done. The dagger aimed at his throat only nicked him, and we don't know if any main arteries or organs where damaged. Its definitely a wait and see moment.

[J. Stargaryen]

:laugh: I know. I'm a woman, and firmly in the corner of men, but when I saw that adaptation, I was like "WOW."

If she was the KotLT, which I think she was, (and given the latest Arianne chapter from tWoW, and Elia sands behavior, I think it confirms Lyanna was), I'm wondering how she stuffed "them" into her armour.

I think it's possible that Martin may want to get this issue behind him, so he can let Jon get on with his destiny. It's a "filler" until he comes clean with Jons parentage, because Martin has to sign off on these images and their implications.

Just the reveal of Rhaegar was something.

Breastplate stretcher. It is known.

(post 500 FTW)

[Ygrain]

It could be, of course, but my question is: why would she do that? (its will be a scandal to his house, to his brothers, for Baratheon) because either willingly or "kidnaped" always be a problem.

Why not just get married instead?

Because Rhaegar is not the highest authority, Aerys is, He cannot be a 100% sure that the king will condone what Rhaegar wants to do, and if Aerys forbids it, it would be much more difficult to go against the king's expressed will. Yes, there is a chance that Aerys might agree, but only a chance, and if that chance fails, there won't be a second one. Lyanna will be beyond Rhaegar's reach forever, her family will probably guard her more, and they might speed up her marriage to Robert. Best not take the chances with Aerys, do the deed and hope it will play out well, rather than take the risk that your plan will be thwarted before it really began.

[Techelles]

I've pointed these things out before. Mostly, the idea that Rhaegar would hide in the ToJ doesn't sit well with me. That's not written down in the books but is a deduction made in these forums. Also, Rhaegar's actions or lack thereof concerning Aerys and his killing people. Further, Rhaegar's motivations or his basic stupidity.

I guess I'm wondering what you think the importance of these questions truly is. Is there a larger matter that you think their answers would explain? How could their answers alter the known facts? Certainly they could cast a new light on things, but what would they actually change? Are there hypothetical answers that would cause you to either doubt or believe R+L=J? To me, these things seem like details that are not currently crucial to the theory. When they become relevant to the story, GRRM will expose them.

For the record, I don't think any amount of argument will answer these questions to your satisfaction, because we just do not know.

I know you believe R+L=J, and I know you haven't claimed that these answers would change anything. I'm just trying to get a handle on the heart of the matter here.

And I know what the answers are to these. Rhaegar hid in the tower so he could present the realm with the fait accompli once he and Lyanna were safely married. He fell in love or captured Lyanna and did not foresee the consequences. He didn't know what was going on etc etc... I've suggested Rhaegar was threatened by Aerys, that there was fear Aerys’s men would turn against Rhaegar and even go as far as kill him, seeing as Aerys has other heirs. I’ve suggested Rhaegar was held captive somewhere for some time during the war, or at least, held up on Aerys’s orders.

No one's answered to that, and no one’s been giving more logical explanations either. From all accounts Rhaegar was a smart and decent guy, things don't add up.

If he stayed in the tower and thought 'everything's well' then he's utterly stupid. If he knew what was going on but didn't tell Lyanna, then, he's a liar, coward and manipulator. If he took Lyanna against her will, he'd be a rapist and I don't see why Lyanna would love his child in that case.

Maybe I'm being a little redundant, but I'm just gonna lay out what I'm thinking.

True, we know very little of Rhaegar, and certainly we are justified, I think, in complaining about how completely irresponsible his elopement with Lyanna seems.

But whether we know enough to really theorize about what was truly going through Rhaegar's head, what he was doing all that time that his location is not decidedly pinned down, or why he didn't do some of the things we might have expected him to do, we do know the following:

1) Lyanna went off with Rhaegar.

2) She was found dying at the ToJ.

3) Three Kingsguard were with her, and they died there.

4) Rhaegar coined the name "Tower of Joy," which means that he was there at some point. Personally, I think the name suggests that Rhaegar was there for a good while. Seems to me that you have to make quite a few happy memories at a place before you think of it as a sanctuary of joy. But that's just me.

I guess what I'm driving at is this: whatever we may learn in the future, these things happened -- one way or another, for one reason or another. For now, does it matter what motivated Rhaegar? Does it matter if he wasn't at the ToJ the entire time? Does it matter why he did not intervene when Aerys went pyromaniacal? Obviously, it would be very interesting to know all of these things, as they would make our understanding of the events much clearer and almost certainly have implications for the future, but this knowledge wouldn't change the fact that the events listed above occurred. And I tend to doubt that it would argue against R+L=J. There are many unknowns, and I'm not even convinced that the ones you've brought up are the important ones. Anyway, GRRM has said that we'll learn more details about the whole R+L situation in good time.

My thoughts on Rhaegar:

I doubt he ever (perhaps not even once in his adult life) thought, "Everything's well." I agree that he was neither stupid nor cruel. I do not believe that he was nothing more to Lyanna than a rapist. These are the impressions the books have left me with.

But why did he take her? Was it just love? Was he just a crazy Targ? Was he somehow convinced that his son with Lyanna would be the Prince that was Promised, in which case he thought Jon's birth necessary no matter what the price? Don't know. But we do know that a very young Rhaegar one day decided that as much as he loved books, he must be a warrior. Based on what Aemon tells Sam about Rhaegar and prophecies, it's easy to connect this decision with his identification of himself as the PtwP. This means that for most of his life Rhaegar had a very deep and serious sense of his own destiny, which he surely knew would be anything but easy. He and Aemon anticipated the return of the Others and the next long night, after all. I think this is why he was, by many accounts, a man with an air of melancholy and tragedy about him. He believed that some great fight, some great responsibility, was his and his alone, and that to fulfill his role as the savior of the prophecy, he must necessarily face extraordinary hardships and overcome the legendary enemies of mankind. We know that his understanding of the prophecy evolved over time, but if he ever thought that to play his destined part he must do things that might make him seem evil in the eyes of the world, would he balk? No more than Jon did when he killed Qhorin, I'd argue. Would he shrink from doing what was best for the realm just to avoid a conflict? No more than Jon did when he let the Wildlings through the Wall. So if Rhaegar specifically needed Lyanna to produce a child that he thought would be at least one of the three heads of the dragon and possibly the PtwP (either way, crucial to the fight against the Others), I don't think that the possibility of war, which he may well not have expected on any large scale, would have deterred him. His eye would have been on the Battle for the Dawn, on the very survival of the human race. But whatever Rhaegar did, I do not doubt for a second that it was done with a discerning mind and a very tragic sense of both the repercussions and the necessity of his actions.

Finally, with respect to the idea of Aerys holding Rhaegar captive, there's a reason it has received no reply: no one here can speak to it because there isn't the slightest hint of it in the books. There is no solid ground from which to argue for or against it. For my part, I don't know why this would make more sense to you than Rhaegar being with Lyanna the whole time. Seems to me like it just raises more questions without really explaining anything important. (Example questions: Why? What was Rhaegar doing in KL? Why did he leave Lyanna? How long was he held up? How did he escape? Etc?)

Also, just in case, please don't attempt to answer those parenthetical questions. That is not what I'm going for here.

If the tower was secluded and no one knew where to find them, how come Hightower did, and Ned as well? If Ashara told Ned, what role did she play in all this? Where was she, how did they communicate? How did they meet?

All these things have been addressed before, but no explanation seems satisfactory.

Of course, nothing is completely satisfying except the whole truth. We're still missing a lot of information. We just build the best case we can based on what we know. I'm pretty convinced on all the major points, though.

Anyway, like someone else said, I think Hightower knew all along and that he was more Rhaegar's man than Aerys's. Why? Because he did find the tower; what's more, he stayed there, fought there, and died there.

As for Ned and Ashara, well, as you know, I've written quite a lot about that. If you have any specific criticisms of my (or anyone's) arguments, feel free to bring them forward. If you feel like you can explain them better, do please make your case. All we ask for is textual support.

[Jon Icefyre]

Breastplate stretcher. It is known.

(post 500 FTW)

It is known :lmao:

[corbon]

But that's just the thing. I haven't been arguing against it. I did once, but that's already stale bread (to me anyway). I came to these forums as a fervent believer in R+L=J and I still believe it somewhat, but does no one else think some things are inconsistent and we are clearly missing facts and that some of the deductions made on this forums are not entirely logical?

Some things are clearly inconsistent? No.

That we are missing facts? Definitely!

That some of the deductions made are not entirely logical? Certainly, there is all sorts of crackpottery around. But the ones you seem to rail against, the ones widely accepted, no, there is no lack of logic there.

I'll repeat a variation of something I noted earlier.

When evidence A suggests X happened, and other evidence B suggests that character C involved closely in X was neither stupid nor cruel etc, and analysis D that comes up with the answer that person C doing X was either stupid or cruel then, all it really suggests is that the analyst doesn't comprehend the situation properly.

Whether that is due to lack of information, or poor analysis, isn't clear yet. Or, perhaps, some of the information we have is wrong, not just incomplete.

Consider this scenario, which is peculative in nature, but fits everything we know.

1. Rhaegar believes that for reason of prophecy, perhaps linked to the fate of the world, he must have three children.

2. Rhaegar's wife, having borne 2 children, has now been told that she cannot have any more children and that attempts to do so will probably kill her (and therefore the child).

3. Rhaegar has found a young woman whose honour and courage he has already witnessed (KotLT), who is young, beautiful, spirited and whose family is closely linked with Ice, matching Rhaegars' Fire in the key prophetic term, 'song of ice and fire'. This young woman is unfortunately betrothed to a man she has no interest in and detests the propect of marrying.

4. Possibly, Rhaegar and Lyanna fall in love (or maybe that comes later, who knows?)

5. It all seems to fit together. Rhaegar needs her, she needs him. He is already married, but it is an arranged marriage with affection but no love, and he has the old Targ institution of polygamy available. However, both families will object, possibly violently. The Starks due to the already given promise to Lord Baratheon, Aerys because he distrusts Rhaegar and was the one who chose Rhaegar's first wife anyway.

So how to achieve a desired and possibly needed union despite these difficulties? The families will never agree, and Aerys has the power to break the union, to separate the two of them and to return Lyanna to her father. The Starks, especially hot-head Brandon may well launch violent rescue attempts or military assaults to recover their daughter.

What to do?

Well, if no one knows where they are or exactly what has happened, what can anyone do? Aerys can't split them up, can't return Lyanna, or punish her or Rhaegar. The Starks can't rescue her or attack her captors. The most Aerys can do is look for them, and the most the Starks can do is appeal to Aerys where they are likely to receive a sympathetic ear anyway.

So a plan is formed. A secret elopement, hide out in an isolated location where they can escape even Varys' spies, for a long enough time that the initial anger and hue and cry will die down and that the Starks (mostly Robert, really, her family are unlikely to desert her) won't want her back anyway as she will be 'spoiled' for any other match. Th eStarks and maybe even Robert Baratheon can then be mollified with lands, titles, coin or whatever, and all will be well.

Note that Rhaegar is currently distrusted by Aerys and has no current role in the Govt, and his family are still well cared for in KL, so no one is dropping any serious duties or anything. Elia might even be in on the plan, as she knows about the three heads thing already.

This plan proceeds. Maybe its a staged kidnap, maybe its a real-but-willing kidnap, maybe its nothing like a kidnap. They elope, disappear off the grid and hustle to their secret hiding place, named the ToJ. There they are supported by the Daynes, through Arthur's connection and probably Ashara. Not a great deal of support is needed, just a handful of servants and a cart of supplies every few months, easily done in fair secrecy from Starfall, which is relatively near.

Did they send messages to their families, to Rickard and/or Aerys explaining what they were doing, but keeping their location secret? That would seem sensible, to reduce tension somewhat. We haven't seen any evidence of such communications, but then if you think about it, there hasn't been any opportunity for us to see any such evidence. There is no apparent reaction from Rickard. Brandon went off his rocker, but why? What information did he get, and was it accurate? Was there a message distorted, and if so, deliberately or accidentally? Or did someone see something and tell Brandon, what they saw or a fabrication?

We have no idea.

But we do know that Brandon didn't even mention Lyanna when he rode up to KL and called Rhaegar out to die. Thats a very troubling omission, and seems to point to Brandon already having some belief that such was pointless, which doesn't add up with what we know - so perhaps what he thinks he knows isn't what we think we know.

Back to events as they unfold. News gets out, but Brandon goes unexpectedly apeshit and does something phenomenally stupid and counterproductive, something that could never be predicted. He commits outright treason calling Rhaegar out to die, not even mentioning Lyanna.

This triggers Aerys' paranioa, and Brandon and his companions are rightfully arrested and held for trial.

Rhaegar is looked for, but none profess to know his location.

Rickard and the fathers are summoned to answer for their crimes, and Rickard requests trial by combat (still no mention of Lyanna), perhaps seeing that Aerys' mind was already made up.

Aerys' madness kicks up to a new high level and he declares his champion is fire, effectively judicailly murdering Rickard and Brandon. Nasty shit, mad as a hatter, but Brandon was guilty and Rickard did elect to represent him as champion.

Still no mention of Lyanna

Then Aerys calls for Ned's and Robert's head. This is where the rebellion starts. Until now, Aerys has acted within his rights, except the nutjob thing about fire as champion. But this is a step too far, he's calling for the death of two Great Lords who have committed no crime and if anything, been wronged by Aerys' House. Jon Arryn refuses and calls his banners, and rebellion is on, with many Houses coming down on either side.

Still no mention of Lyanna.

All the shit-hitting-the-fan action has taken place within a period of a few weeks or so, while anyone sending a message to Rhaegar from KL will take months by rider, or weeks through Ashara Dayne at Starfall, then rider. If anyone is sending such messages.

Meanwhile, Rhaegar and Lyanna are proceeding with their plan (out of communication generally) and Lyanna gets pregnant.

The rebellion goes on for a while, not really taken seriously by Loyalists for a start, until Jon Connington is defeated at the Battle of the Bells. Aerys gets serious after this and calls for Rhaegar to come back, take command and defeat the Rebellion. Hightower is ordered to find Rhaegar and get him back.

Hightower maybe knows where to look, or is smart enough to go to Ashara Dayne (knowing Arthur Dayne is with Rhaegar), and learns from her to go to ToJ. From him, Rhaegar and Lyanna learn of events, but its much too late to change anything. Rhaegar goes off to fight, pregnant Lyanna stays behind as there is no point in giving Aerys another weapon against Rhaegar.

Now let me reiterate, this is only a scenario, not a determined sequence of events. But it fits every data piece we have, and sees everyone except Brandon, and to a lesser extent Aerys' madness, operating entirely logically, in their own best interest according to sensible goals and methods.

And the thing about Brandon? We have no idea what data he had, or how he got it. But he must have received something to set off his sudden reaction. That something could literally be anything and may or may not bear any resemblence to the truth of events.

What part of this scenario is illogical?