Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

mattah84

Littlefinger's Downfall

Recommended Posts

Sansa. It needs to be Sansa to bring him down somehow, and Oh - how satisfying that will be.

my thoughts exactly, Littlefinger's downfall will be his underestimation of Sansa Stark, he sees her as just another pawn in his game of thrones, but she's gonna exact justice and revenge for everyone he betrayed, it will be sweet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not certain who will "pull the trigger," but I think the time will come when LF realizes just how powerless he really is. Someone will also recognize it an kill him in an ignominious fashion. I think a time will arise where push comes to shove and LF will realize he has no real power. Sure he as accumlated titles by double crossing everyone, but he really has no land or armies/loyalists (excluding Kettleblacks which is like 4 dudes) because he has tried to do everything by himself (unless he is a Tyrell Loyalist and helped kill Joffrey for Margery's sake - doubtful).

He has only acted as an opportunist by attacking all the interests of all the other Great Houses. I'm not certain of his goal other than reducing their strength to the level where he might gain the Iron Throne. Or perhaps he does it simply because he can. Regardless, I don't see how he ever can "win" the game of thrones. He has numerous titles, but no land or armies. At least in KL he had the Gold Cloaks.

I understand he wishes to rule through Sansa possibly, but I don't see it happening. As other posters have noted, she is getting wise to his tricks. When she learns the full truth, the jig will be up.

I think there is a passage in AGOT that explains that Petyr is basically to smart for his own good. I wish I had the cite, but I don't right now. Eventually, that trait will play its course and he will be finished.

As I said in another thread:

I think Petyr is a good schemer, but not a good actor: He doesn´t make any effort to conceal his true personality and the fact that he is dishonourable and amoral; he just tells people "yes, I´m a bastard, but I´m in your side", and stupid people believes him.

Littlefinger main advantege is that westerosi nobility always understimate him: He can´t fight, has no old blood, has no titles, lands or retainers,...etc.,he has not "hard power" so they don´t see him as a danger and make use of him, thinking they can easily control him...and Petyr enjoys it and gets a kick out of telling them to their faces that he doesn´t respect them or their values.

More intelligent and perceptive people, like Tyrion or Stannis easily see through him and don´t trust him. If Littlefinger lived in one of the Free Cities he would be a lot less efficient, since people there could recognize his "soft power" and wouldn´t be tricked by him.

That´s the reason I think Littlefinger would not be an effective open ruler: Once he had "hard power" people would see him as a danger and treat him with more caution.

In short, if he tries to exert real power the lords will take him seriously and turn their armies against him, and he has nothing, unless he brings a mercenary army from Essos (and those can be easily bribed to turn against him). Littlefinger has to thread very, very carefully, because he's surviving and even thriving because the people with "hard power" doesn't take him seriously and don't see him as a menace, only as an useful resource, but the moment that change he will be fighting for his life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure that people will mock the fact that Littlefinger would be able to secure the Vale and Riverlands and maybe they are right but if he is not working on doing just that then what is the point of anything he has done.

I think the riverlord already mock him ("lord not-here")

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we've learned anything from GRRM, then I don't think Littlefinger will die (if he dies at all) at the hands of a predictable source. So not Sansa, not Tyrion. I could envision a cool scene where Daenerys flies up to the Eyrie and burns him alive. If I recall, a dragon has been up to the Eyrie before (one of Aegon I's sisters, can't remember which), which caused the Vale to yield to Aegon during his conquest. Some possible (if unlikely) foreshadowing there?

I also think it's very possible that Littlefinger sits the Iron Throne at some point. He's been the most successful player of the GOT so far (has he had one plan that hasn't worked?), and I think that he may be one of the last high lords standing at a late point in the books. He obviously has NO claim whatsoever, but there's going to be a ton of casualties that could open the door for him in some way, and he's shown to thrive in these chaotic situations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my thoughts exactly, Littlefinger's downfall will be his underestimation of Sansa Stark, he sees her as just another pawn in his game of thrones, but she's gonna exact justice and revenge for everyone he betrayed, it will be sweet

Possibly, but that's just speculation. So far, there is nothing to underestimate in Sansa Stark, its still possible she will just remain a pawn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am making logical deductions based on the known facts. I will put it incredibly simply; If I killed Lord Petyr Baelish, Protector of the Vale, Lord of Herrenhall, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, Master of Coin and King of Whores, what are the consequences? Who's coming after me? Think long and hard on that and then present me with a logical answer based on what is known.

so your whole point is that how much power somebody has is purely based on if somebody would avenge them if you killed them. That seems to be a very arbitrary rule. There are a lot of characters that are not really well loved that hold tremendous power . How many people would try to avenge Varys if you killed him? maybe Illyrio but he would be the only one , Dany , Aegon, Joncon and the rest of his allies would not go out of their way to avenge Varys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I said in another thread:

In short, if he tries to exert real power the lords will take him seriously and turn their armies against him, and he has nothing, unless he brings a mercenary army from Essos (and those can be easily bribed to turn against him). Littlefinger has to thread very, very carefully, because he's surviving and even thriving because the people with "hard power" doesn't take him seriously and don't see him as a menace, only as an useful resource, but the moment that change he will be fighting for his life.

Who are these Lords who will turn their armies against him? The Riverlands are a mess , the North is tearing itself apart, the Lannisters are surrounded by enemies , the Storm lords are done, the Reach and Dorne will soon be at war and they all are under threat of the Ironborn. Littlefinger can do whatever he wants and nobody will lift a finger aganst him because they all have massive problems of their own to deal with. Do you think it's a coincidence that the entire country is tearing iyself apart while Littlefinger is sitting in the Vale waiting for the right time to put his plans into action.

Littlefinger is also smart enough to know that when he makes his move he better have the loyalty of the Vale Lords and/or the Riverlords or he will be crushed . How he gets that loyalty I don't know but I've speculated before that getting them all together and destroying the Freys would be one way to bring all the Lords together.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

maybe Illyrio but he would be the only one

and that one is IMHO more than enough

Illyrio wouldn't just kill you he would destroy you everybit and then kill you himself

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who are these Lords who will turn their armies against him? The Riverlands are a mess , the North is tearing itself apart, the Lannisters are surrounded by enemies , the Storm lords are done, the Reach and Dorne will soon be at war and they all are under threat of the Ironborn. Littlefinger can do whatever he wants and nobody will lift a finger aganst him because they all have massive problems of their own to deal with. Do you think it's a coincidence that the entire country is tearing iyself apart while Littlefinger is sitting in the Vale waiting for the right time to put his plans into action.

Littlefinger is also smart enough to know that when he makes his move he better have the loyalty of the Vale Lords and/or the Riverlords or he will be crushed . How he gets that loyalty I don't know but I've speculated before that getting them all together and destroying the Freys would be one way to bring all the Lords together.

No matter how many lords and knights die, those who remain must accept you, or you won't be able to rule (unless you bring a foreign army, but that would be too expensive in the long run). Littlefinger can maybe rule from the shadows, but he just isn't acceptable as an open ruler: The moment they see him exerting real power, they will turn against him.

The Lords of the Vale are bidding their time, they want Sweet Robin as liege, and if he die, they will probably accept Harry the Heir, but not Littlefinger: He can be the trusted advisor and right hand man of the Lord Paramount or King, but nothing else.

Also, Littlefinger's game is becoming more and more in the open. The more the lords know about it, the less they trust him and the more in danger he is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No matter how many lords and knights die, those who remain must accept you, or you won't be able to rule (unless you bring a foreign army, but that would be too expensive in the long run). Littlefinger can maybe rule from the shadows, but he just isn't acceptable as an open ruler: The moment they see him exerting real power, they will turn against him.

The Lords of the Vale are bidding their time, they want Sweet Robin as liege, and if he die, they will probably accept Harry the Heir, but not Littlefinger: He can be the trusted advisor and right hand man of the Lord Paramount or King, but nothing else.

Also, Littlefinger's game is becoming more and more in the open. The more the lords know about it, the less they trust him and the more in danger he is.

Don't forget Littlefingers conversation with Sansa after he turned back the Lords Declarent , He seemed pretty confident that he could get the Vale Lords except for Bronze Yohn on his side .

I don't know why it's so hard to believe that Littlefinger can get other Lords to follow him. He's very smart and very confident and seems to always be a step ahead of everybody else. His bannermen will respond to his confidence and brilliance and if he can convince them he can lead them to victories they will follow him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't forget Littlefingers conversation with Sansa after he turned back the Lords Declarent , He seemed pretty confident that he could get the Vale Lords except for Bronze Yohn on his side .

I don't know why it's so hard to believe that Littlefinger can get other Lords to follow him. He's very smart and very confident and seems to always be a step ahead of everybody else. His bannermen will respond to his confidence and brilliance and if he can convince them he can lead them to victories they will follow him.

Well, for a start, they aren't his bannermen, they are Sweet Robin's bannermen (his bannermen are the Riverlords, who ignore him), and they all despise him, even those who take his gold. Gaining their loyalty and trust will be very, very, very difficult, since he embodies the opposite of everything their knightly culture appreciates.

Will they respond to his confidence and brilliance? He's brilliant only in fields they despise, like conspiring, lying and business. He isn't a great knight or a man known for his honor, and that's what they want from a leader.

As for leading them to victory, are you sure he can do that at all? When has Littlefinger led an army to victory? I don't think he knows much about military strategy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who are these Lords who will turn their armies against him? The Riverlands are a mess , the North is tearing itself apart, the Lannisters are surrounded by enemies , the Storm lords are done, the Reach and Dorne will soon be at war and they all are under threat of the Ironborn. Littlefinger can do whatever he wants and nobody will lift a finger aganst him because they all have massive problems of their own to deal with. Do you think it's a coincidence that the entire country is tearing iyself apart while Littlefinger is sitting in the Vale waiting for the right time to put his plans into action.

sure the riverlands a mess but beneath the chaos are knife's sharpend(I wouldn't be surprised if the leaders ARE jonos bracken and tytos blackwood), but the north isn't tearing it self apart, the stromlords aren't done( they aren't just unified), true the reach might be in its own civil war. but the lord declarant might join any other pretender and the mountain clans are growing more dangerouous for LF day by day ( hell some small lord and landed knight might join them to protect their lands and small folk)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, for a start, they aren't his bannermen, they are Sweet Robin's bannermen (his bannermen are the Riverlords, who ignore him), and they all despise him, even those who take his gold. Gaining their loyalty and trust will be very, very, very difficult, since he embodies the opposite of everything their knightly culture appreciates.

Will they respond to his confidence and brilliance? He's brilliant only in fields they despise, like conspiring, lying and business. He isn't a great knight or a man known for his honor, and that's what they want from a leader.

As for leading them to victory, are you sure he can do that at all? When has Littlefinger led an army to victory? I don't think he knows much about military strategy.

So Littlefinger is a financial genius and is the best player of the game of thrones , except for maybe Varys, so I assume that he is not a moron when it comes to military strategy. Tywin Lannister was neither a great Knight nor a man of honor but he was a great leader and Littlefinger can be one too.

He does not have to lead an army to victory he would have plenty of Lords who would be capable of leading the armies , he would just have come up with the overall plans and he is very good at long term planning. Tywin Lannister showed that there is a lot more to winning wars than winning battles. Who is smarter than Littlefinger? Who is better at reading people and getting them to do what he wants?

The Riverlords except for the Freys are deperate for somebody to lead them so if Littlefinger can convince them that he can bring them what they want ,especially revenge on the Freys , they will follow him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's going to be Sansa, somehow. The maiden slaying the "savage giant" in the snow castle — it refers to Sansa and Baelish (whose actual family sigil is the Titan of Braavos) at either Winterfell or the Eyrie. The doll and the mini snow Winterfell were a feint.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the amount of mystery and intrigue surrounding LF's actions I think he'll die in some mysterious way and we'll all be left theorising about who did it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sure the riverlands a mess but beneath the chaos are knife's sharpend(I wouldn't be surprised if the leaders ARE jonos bracken and tytos blackwood), but the north isn't tearing it self apart, the stromlords aren't done( they aren't just unified), true the reach might be in its own civil war. but the lord declarant might join any other pretender and the mountain clans are growing more dangerouous for LF day by day ( hell some small lord and landed knight might join them to protect their lands and small folk)

How is the North not tearing itself apart? half the lords are following Stannis and the other half are with the Boltons and they are about to have a massive battle so worrying about Littlefinger is the last thing on their list.

As for the Reach they are dealing with a lot more than a civil war , unless you don't count Aegon and the Golden Company invading and the Ironborn attacking them and the fact that Dorne has two armies on their borders waiting for orders to be anything to worry about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Sansa has the guts to do it, if she does, she will be like her sister in that she will have no where to turn to after the deed is done, assuming she can suck it up and do it. She really won't get anything out of it, unless you count whats going to be taken if she does that in her current position, because everyone thinks she is just his bastard and will get nothing that was his.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How is the North not tearing itself apart? half the lords are following Stannis and the other half are with the Boltons and they are about to have a massive battle so worrying about Littlefinger is the last thing on their list.

While I agree that Littlefinger isn't high on the North's priority list now, I think the region is more unified than you're giving it credit for. They're not actually following Stannis or the Boltons, rather funneling those two forces so that they'll fight each other and bleed, after which the northerners can reunite and shoo out the weakened "victor."

http://asoiaf.wester...acy-reexamined/

I don't think Sansa has the guts to do it, if she does, she will be like her sister in that she will have no where to turn to after the deed is done, assuming she can suck it up and do it. She really won't get anything out of it, unless you count whats going to be taken if she does that in her current position, because everyone thinks she is just his bastard and will get nothing that was his.

And why the heck do you think she'll do it out of an expectation for monetary gain? Frankly I think money and riches will be the absolute last thing on her mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems to me that while Littlefinger's been laughing to himself about how successfully he's manipulated the Vale Lords, he might be in for a rather nasty surprise in TWOW. AFFC ended with Sansa and Sweetrobin descending from the (impossible to assault) Eyrie. The only reason Littlefinger had any power in the Vale in AFFC wasn't because the Vale Lords wanted to honor Lysa's wishes or because they all agreed Littlefinger was the right man for the job---it was because, ever since Lysa's death, Littlefinger was the person who had full physical control over Lord Robert. And given that Lord Robert was in the impregnable Eyrie, there was no way for any of the Vale Lords to militarily wrest Sweetrobin away from Littlefinger's grasp. Well, that changed at the end of AFFC, and it might not be a coincidence that GRRM ended the Vale plot with the descent to the Gates of the Moon---because Sweetrobin is now in a place controlled, not by Littlefinger, but by Lord Nestor Royce, and that plotline might have ended where it did because Lord Nestor's going to make his move in TWOW.

Littlefinger thinks he has Nestor Royce firmly under his control, and that Bronze Yohn is the real danger. He thinks that he's basically won over (or will soon win over) all of the other Lords Declarant---buying up Anya Waynwood's debt, for example. But while Bronze Yohn is a powerful lord, he isn't the Royce who's been ruling the Vale for the past decade and a half. And in a world like Westeros, Anya Waynwood owing Littlefinger money doesn't actually put her under his control, because a pretty obvious way for her to clear out her debt would be to just kill off Littlefinger (so Anya Waynwood gains more from his death than from his continued rulership of the Vale). In AGOT, Catelyn thought to herself that there was no way a Redfort would marry a bastard---yet now we're to believe the heir to the Vale (someone who, given Sweetrobin's physical ailments, stands an excellent chance of ascending to the title) is going to be allowed to marry a bastard? (And not even a king's bastard like Mya, but the bastard daughter of the grandson of a sellsword?) And the Knight of Ninestars shows up at a wedding that Littlefinger brokered . . . just because? My goodness, it's almost as if the Lords Declarant only want Littlefinger to think he's winning them over.

Way back in AGOT, the Blackfish said this of Nestor Royce:

Nestor Royce has been high steward these past fourteen years, while Lord Jon served in King’s Landing, and many whisper that he should rule until the boy comes of age.

The Blackfish is known for being a rather savvy guy. And when Catelyn meets Nestor, she thinks to herself:

She knew the man only by reputation; Bronze Yohn’s cousin, from a lesser branch of House Royce, yet still a formidable lord in his own right.

Nestor Royce ruled the Vale for almost a decade and a half, was appointed to that position by Jon Arryn himself, and according to the Blackfish, it was believed by many in the Vale that Lord Nestor should become Lord Protector of the Vale. He's from the lesser branch of House Royce, but he's been wielding political power in the Vale for quite a while---although he held no lands himself, he was not viewed as some petty lordling. Littlefinger tells Sansa that Lysa thought Lord Nestor was "a rock" (not in a good way), but given that Lysa's judgment was clearly terrible, I'd say her disdain was probably a point in Lord Nestor's favor. This is the guy who presents the clearest danger to Littlefinger's position in the Vale, because due to his time ruling the Vale while Jon Arryn was in King's Landing, Lord Nestor is the most obvious candidate for replacing Littlefinger as Lord Protector, and while Littlefinger thinks that he's cleverly neutralized that danger . . . I'm not so sure he has.

We know from AFFC that Littlefinger thinks he's successfully bribed Nestor Royce---that by granting Lord Nestor the Gates of the Moon via his own power as Lord Protector (rather than having Lord Robert sign the grant), that Lord Nestor would have to support Littlefinger's position as Lord Protector or risk losing the Gates. But it seems to me that there's a pretty obvious logical flaw there, given that Lord Nestor himself is an obvious candidate to replace Littlefinger should Littlefinger fall. What, Lord Nestor is going to work to keep a rival candidate in power because if Lord Nestor replaces Littlefinger as Lord Protector, Lord Nestor will . . . somehow . . . lose the Gates of the Moon? In what universe does that make any sense at all?

Presumably, there's a reason the position of Keeper of the Gates of the Moon was never a hereditary position: because the Eyrie is physically uninhabitable during the winter. House Arryn has to descend to the Gates in the winter (House Stark, in contrast, didn't have to head to the Wolf's Den during winter; nor did House Targaryen have to head for Summerhall in any given season), so giving full control of the Gates away to a bannerman is pretty clearly unwise---it's basically begging for a winter coup (once House Arryn has put itself under the control of whoever "owns" the Gates, it's a simple matter to just take them hostage). This danger is especially strong when, as now, Lord Arryn is a child and the "regent" has no actual ties to House Arryn. Once Lord Nestor has the swords which the piece of paper Littlefinger signed allowed him to gather (as Lord Nestor now has the incomes associated with the Gates, he now has the ability to increase his military arsenal), why should Lord Nestor care that Littlefinger signed the paper that allowed him to do so in the first place? As everyone who's encountered Emmon Frey waving around his beloved piece of paper knows, the realities of who controls a place often have little to do with who signed what paper. (And honestly, given that Littlefinger has fewer knights working for him now than Nestor Royce probably had pre-grant, Nestor Royce could probably have taken down Littlefinger once winter came even without that grant, merely in his capacity of Keeper of the Gates of the Moon.)

It seems to me that Littlefinger's attempt to neutralize Lord Nestor was truly stupendously idiotic. There are four things Lord Nestor would need in order to make himself Lord Protector of the Vale: 1) Littlefinger dead or imprisoned, 2) physical custody of Lord Arryn, 3) control of the Gates of the Moon, and 4) the consent of the majority of the other Lords of the Vale. Due to his history (and the Vale Lords' distaste for being ruled over by someone like Littlefinger), he probably already has #4, and due to Littlefinger's idiocy, he retained #3 even after Lysa's death. (And if he has any sense at all, he's been using the income and "legitimacy" from Littlefinger's "grant" to fatten up the garrison at the Gates, a garrison loyal to him and not to Littlefinger---similar to how the High Septon used the royal grant of legitimacy to build up his own army.) Playing along with Littlefinger's games in the autumn was quite smart, because really, the geographical realities of the Vale's climate and the Arryn homes mean that all Lord Nestor really had to do was sit in the Gates and wait for winter to inevitably come, and #1 and #2 would be handed to him on a silver platter. He couldn't storm the Eyrie earlier and take custody of Robert Arryn due to the Eyrie's location, and murdering Littlefinger during one of the times he'd descended on business would have been problematic (he'd still have had to go up to the Eyrie to get control of Sweetrobin, but that could have been a chancy prospect---for all he knew, Littlefinger left behind orders to put Sweetrobin to death in the event Littlefinger should be harmed).

But if Lord Nestor just quietly waits, then everything (and everyone) he needs will literally have to come straight to him, all without him having to lift a finger. At the end of AFFC, Nestor Royce has physical control of Robert Arryn, complete physical control of Lord Robert's home for the forseeable future, physical control over Littlefinger (the garrison at the Gates being loyal to Lord Nestor, not Littlefinger), and probably the support of the Lords Declarant as well. Bronze Yohn made quite a wonderful distraction, all things considered---Littlefinger always saw him as the threat, not Lord Nestor. And I wonder if that might actually have been the plan all along: convince Littlefinger that Nestor Royce is on his side; then, while forcing him to expend all of his energy trying to manipulate the Lords Declarant, Nestor Royce (ignored by Littlefinger) can quietly wait in the Gates. Once winter inevitably comes, Littlefinger and Sweetrobin take up residence at the Gates, and boom---the trap is sprung. Nestor Royce declares himself Lord Protector and either quietly has Littlefinger poisoned or arrests him on some charge and publicly executes him (who's going to object? Littlefinger has no actual friends, no powerful family, and Cersei's got other problems to deal with).

ETA: And actually, that might be where Sansa comes in (because I can't see Littlefinger going down and her playing no part). If Nestor Royce is planning a coup, all she needs to do is go to him and make a deal: she publicly testifies that Littlefinger murdered Lysa and/or Jon Arryn (so the Vale Lords can pretend this is about seeking justice for their murdered liege rather than just grabbing power) and in exchange, she gets, say, passage to Braavos (where "Alayne's" mother is supposedly from). If Sansa decides to head to Jon at the Wall, going via Braavos would be the logical way to go about it (since it would look weird for a woman to seek passage straight to the Wall), and would actually have Sansa directly following in Arya's footsteps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×