Littlefinger's Downfall

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'll believe it when I see it. If it were as simple as just offing The Great One, you'd figure it would have been done already.

As for arrogance, he's always had it. See no reason to believe recent success has made him any less thorough.

Has anyone actually tried though? That's like saying you're undefeated in football, but you don't have a football team. Likewise it's easier to survive this series if no one is actually gunning for you.

And the funny thing about luck is that eventually it runs out. If you keep pushing limits just to see how far you can get, eventually you'll go too far. Just common sense.

GRRM's point about Baelish not having an army is really interesting. Not just objectively, but when you consider what an army represents: people who are willing to die in the service of your cause or reputation. Littlefinger is out for Littlefinger and nothing else, and as such he doesn't have the men willing to put their necks on the line for him.

[Quiet Isle]

you know brandon fought without amour and beat LF up without breaking a sweat or getting a scratch

LF is also known to missjudge persons( like the hound or that the mountain clans are A incredible danger to him )

OMG that is brill

I love this thread! (really any LF thread... :)) Lots of great posts here that I wanted to add my two cents to. Thought I'd throw these thoughts (some of them culled from my own posts in earlier threads) out there for everyone's consideration.

Sansa’s compelling motivation for being LF’s downfall is multifold and goes back two generations. To begin with, it never made sense to me that Brandon, hothead though he was, would storm into the Red Keep looking for Rhaegar, given Rhaegar's known estrangement from Aerys. Furthermore Brandon rode into KL demanding not his sister but Rhaegar’s blood. That must have been one inflammatory message he received on his way to Riverrun. Considering he learned about Lyanna's "abduction" shortly after his infamous duel with Littlefinger, I think a compelling case can be made that LF himself somehow learned of the abduction and sent the message to Brandon. The various theories of where Lyanna disappeared from can be put to work in favor of this. Let’s not forget LF would have been on the road between Riverrun and the Vale which is the most theorized locale for Lyanna’s disappearance. This was the beginning of LF’s revenge on the Stark family. Initially he may have had some malicious idea of getting rid of Brandon and having Cat turn to him. But he couldn’t have foreseen the death of Rickard Stark and Aerys calling for Ned’s and Robert’s heads and the ensuing war. Being unfamiliar with the Starks he also wouldn’t necessarily have predicted that Ned would take Catelyn in his brother’s place. After Cat ended up with Ned, LF used his influence with Lysa to rise to a position of prominence in the realm and ultimately to take the lead in the poisoning of Jon Arryn and implicating the Lannisters to the Starks.

One thing I've wondered about Littlefinger which could shed some light on his motives surrounding Jon Arryn and the Stark family is if he's descended from the Gulltown Arryns. In AFFC chapter 41, when describing the Vale succession to Sansa, he says:

"there are several branches of House Arryn scattered across the Vale, all as proud as they are penurious, save for the Gulltown Arryns, who had the rare good sense to marry merchants. They're rich but less than couth, so no one talks about them."

This seems in keeping with his flip, self-effacing manner about himself. Also, his first post in government was as Customs Collector in Gulltown and he is known to be connected to the merchant class. Here is Tyrion describing his rise to power in ACOK, chapter 17 (italics mine):

"And in the process, he moved his own men into place. The Keepers of the Keys were his, all four. The King's Counter and the King of Scales were men he named. The officers in charge of all three mints. Harbormasters, tax farmers, custom sergeants, wool factors, toll collectors, pursers, wine factors; nine of every ten belonged to Littlefinger. They were men of middling birth, by and large, merchant's sons, lesser lordlings, sometimes even foreigners, but judging from the results, far more able than their highborn predecessors"

Add to that the fact that marriage into a cadet branch of a great family could explain how LF's father came to be a minor lord as the son of a hedge knight. Also, you have LF's involvement in arranging a marriage between the proud but impoverished Lyonel Corbray and a Gulltown Arryn heiress. The Corbrays are deep in it and have been connected to the Baelish family since the great grandfather came from Braavos as a sellsword in the employ of the Corbrays. I just can't help thinking there is more there than meets the eye. It is Littlefinger after all.

I suspect the whole Harry the Heir thing to be bait and switch or misdirection. First of all, I don’t think we are supposed to believe Harry Hardyng would take Alayne Stone to wife. I believe somewhere LF even mentions the Sansa Stark reveal. We know LF assumes Sansa will be free to marry (Tyrion must be dealt with for that, which he’s made a start at with the Purple Wedding plotting) and Sweet Robin must die (LF states this unequivocally to Sansa in AFFC “When Robert dies”, while Sansa herself seems to be suspicious that SR is being slowly poisoned with sweetsleep) My guess is that LF’s endgame is a bethrothal or even a short marriage between Sansa and Harry who will tragically die in the manner of Arryn heirs, at which point LF is there to reveal his claim to the Vale and marry Sansa, in one fell swoop completing his claim to the North, the Vale and the Riverlands. Sansa's Tully connection could serve to cement his position as Lord Paramount of the Trident. If Edmure’s child dies and the Lannisters are overthrown, Sansa is the heir presumptive behind the Blackfish who is old, unmarried and currently missing. Sansa also has a Whent connection which, while tenuous, LF may see as valuable. I'm sure he has a plan to deal with the Freys somehow, just haven't teased that out yet.

Back to Sansa’s motivations, LF’s machinations are ultimately responsible for Ned’s death. It’s likely he was the voice whispering in Joffrey’s ear to execute Ned. Indirectly and ironically this led to Catelyn’s death, as well as the rest of Sansa’s family (as far as she knows) Even her loathsome aunt Lysa and (we begin to suspect) poor pathetic Sweet Robin can be laid at his door.

But, in my estimation, LF has made three critical mistakes. He underestimates people: from Sansa herself to Brandon Stark and Nestor Royce, as tze so brilliantly noted above, and he seems to assume that Tyrion is or will be out of the picture and further (like most of the other people in story) that Sansa’s brothers are all dead. Those assumptions and underestimations, coupled with Sansa’s rage when she finally puts it all together (and as much as I’ve been very disappointed in her up to this point, I think she is showing signs of finding her inner Stark) will be his ultimate destruction.

It’s important to note that all of the above concerns Littlefinger’s motivations and endgame. As GRRM has noted in this SSM quoted by Ser Wun Wun above (http://www.westeros....tegory/C92/P180) Petyr Baelish has virtually no military strength. He may be expert at the game of thrones but, as has been illustrated IRL by Henry Tudor in the WotR and in story by Robert Baratheon and the Lannisters, might makes right in the long run. This further miscalculation means he will not have the physical means to save himself when the rest of his mistakes catch up with him.

As so many have suggested above, I'm hoping they catch up with him in the vicinity of the Moon Door :devil:

My god that is brilliant.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

Has anyone actually tried though? That's like saying you're undefeated in football, but you don't have a football team. Likewise it's easier to survive this series if no one is actually gunning for you.

You'd imagine people would try if it's as easy as implied in the post in question. To keep up the sports theme, if an open goal is before you, you tend to score it.

And the funny thing about luck is that eventually it runs out. If you keep pushing limits just to see how far you can get, eventually you'll go too far. Just common sense.

Yup, probably so. Possibly not. On this basis Tyrion was fucked by the end of ACOK.

GRRM's point about Baelish not having an army is really interesting. Not just objectively, but when you consider what an army represents: people who are willing to die in the service of your cause or reputation. Littlefinger is out for Littlefinger and nothing else, and as such he doesn't have the men willing to put their necks on the line for him.

If it makes any difference, the quote in question came from 2003, i.e before AFFC was published. This then could potentially refer to the problem of the Lords Declarant, which The Great One is in the process of dealing with. Equally the reverse is true though.

What's the quote again? "You could turn KL upside down and not find a single man with a Mockingbird sewn on his heart, though that does not mean I am friendless".

[Elba the Intoner]

I love this thread! (really any LF thread... :)) Lots of great posts here that I wanted to add my two cents to. Thought I'd throw these thoughts (some of them culled from my own posts in earlier threads) out there for everyone's consideration.

{snip}

Interesting thoughts especially about whether Petyr could be related to the Gulltown Arryns. We know his grandfather came from Braavos and had the Titan as his original family sigil. But we know absolutely nothing about his mother other than that her name was Alayne. It's more than possible that she is a Gulltown Arryn.

As for the list of the many things LF has done to hurt Sansa's family, I have another one that I have not seen mentioned too much but I am convinced he is behind this. That is, when Jaime finds Ned coming out of the brothel with LF and then orders Ned's men to be killed, the more I think about it, the more I am convinced that LF let out some whisperings around Maegors as to where Ned would be. Remember, this is after Tyrion has been arrested by Catelyn, and we know Jaime loves Tyrion and also he was known to act very rashly and without thinking pre hand loss. Also, Ned had just had that huge fight with Robert about killing Dany and resigned, saying he was leaving King's Landing as soon as possible. Petyr was at that meeting. Lo and behold, who shows up knocking on Ned's door a short time later telling Ned that he knows where this brothel is that Ned's been looking for? Of course Petyr does. He did not want Ned getting out of King's Landing alive so he needed to come up with something to stall him. He made Ned an offer he knew Ned could not refuse at a very opportune time for him. I mean, Petyr owns brothels, so shouldn't he have known which brothel Ned was looking for all along? He was saving that info in case he would need it and it turns out he did. So, then he makes himself seem all helpful to Ned by going with him personally to this brothel. I would bet a lot of money that Petyr let it slip to some servant or someone that Ned was going to a particular brothel, in the hopes that Jaime, whose probably looking for Ned at this point, would find out. He probably hoped Jaime, a known hothead who also has an uneasy history with Ned, would have attacked Ned and killed him then and there. Remember how Ned thinks that Petyr ran off really quickly when Jaime and his men showed up? Of course he did. Well, that time his plan to get Ned killed didn't work, but it did serve to kill Jory and some of Ned's other men as well as harm Ned enough to keep him around in King's Landing longer and also stoke the enmity further between the Lannisters and Starks.

As for Sansa being the one to take him down, besides the things already mentioned like how he could be underestimating her (and I think he is) LF clearly has a very big blind spot when it comes to her.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

If it makes any difference, the quote in question came from 2003, i.e before AFFC was published...

What's the quote again? "You could turn KL upside down and not find a single man with a Mockingbird sewn on his heart, though that does not mean I am friendless".

About the SSM, my thought was- "he didn't have an army ten years ago, but who knows what will happen in the next ten?" ;) Nonetheless, he still had no army when last we saw him, though his complement of armed followers had indeed grown slightly.

I love the second quote. I think Petyr has lots of friends in all kinds of places. I just think his friends tend to speak softly rather than carry big sticks.

Interesting thoughts especially about whether Petyr could be related to the Gulltown Arryns. We know his grandfather came from Braavos and had the Titan as his original family sigil. But we know absolutely nothing about his mother other than that her name was Alayne. It's more than possible that she is a Gulltown Arryn.

As for the list of the many things LF has done to hurt Sansa's family, I have another one that I have not seen mentioned too much but I am convinced he is behind this. That is, when Jaime finds Ned coming out of the brothel with LF and then orders Ned's men to be killed, the more I think about it, the more I am convinced that LF let out some whisperings around Maegors as to where Ned would be. Remember, this is after Tyrion has been arrested by Catelyn, and we know Jaime loves Tyrion and also he was known to act very rashly and without thinking pre hand loss. Also, Ned had just had that huge fight with Robert about killing Dany and resigned, saying he was leaving King's Landing as soon as possible. Petyr was at that meeting. Lo and behold, who shows up knocking on Ned's door a short time later telling Ned that he knows where this brothel is that Ned's been looking for? Of course Petyr does. He did not want Ned getting out of King's Landing alive so he needed to come up with something to stall him. He made Ned an offer he knew Ned could not refuse at a very opportune time for him. I mean, Petyr owns brothels, so shouldn't he have known which brothel Ned was looking for all along? He was saving that info in case he would need it and it turns out he did. So, then he makes himself seem all helpful to Ned by going with him personally to this brothel. I would bet a lot of money that Petyr let it slip to some servant or someone that Ned was going to a particular brothel, in the hopes that Jaime, whose probably looking for Ned at this point, would find out. He probably hoped Jaime, a known hothead who also has an uneasy history with Ned, would have attacked Ned and killed him then and there. Remember how Ned thinks that Petyr ran off really quickly when Jaime and his men showed up? Of course he did. Well, that time his plan to get Ned killed didn't work, but it did serve to kill Jory and some of Ned's other men as well as harm Ned enough to keep him around in King's Landing longer and also stoke the enmity further between the Lannisters and Starks.

As for Sansa being the one to take him down, besides the things already mentioned like how he could be underestimating her (and I think he is) LF clearly has a very big blind spot when it comes to her.

Agreed. Thanks for mentioning the Jaime thing. I think that's one of the more important scenes where we see his motives in regard to Ned and sowing discord between Starks and Lannisters. After what happened there, I couldn't believe when Ned actually trusted him to pay off the watch. Might as well have signed his own death warrant :(

[Stannis ftw]

since he has kind of an upsession with her

Best. misspell. ever.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

You'd imagine people would try if it's as easy as implied in the post in question. To keep up the sports theme, if an open goal is before you, you tend to score it.

My point was, up to now, there's no real motivation fo anyone to try. He doesn't have a target on his back, by design. But when that changes, he won't be invincible. There's no sport or prize in trying to beat the high school JV team.

Yup, probably so. Possibly not. On this basis Tyrion was fucked by the end of ACOK.

I'm not going to argue that, actually. Tyrion's probably been fucked since the beginning. If you're expecting me to defend him or argue, sorry.

If it makes any difference, the quote in question came from 2003, i.e before AFFC was published. This then could potentially refer to the problem of the Lords Declarant, which The Great One is in the process of dealing with. Equally the reverse is true though.

What's the quote again? "You could turn KL upside down and not find a single man with a Mockingbird sewn on his heart, though that does not mean I am friendless".

The issue being that Baelish's friends are the kind you rent.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Littlefinger's days are numbered, his arrogance is going to be his downfall. He knows he's the smartest guy in the room and THAT is always dangerous. You can beat Littlefinger easy, don't give him a chance to talk. Every jam he's gotten himself out of he's talked his way out. His fall will parallel Jaimie's, like Jamie's sword hand if you take it away you kill his powerbase. Unlike Jamie Littlefinger doesn't have anything but his wits and his gift for slick talking. Nobody much cares for him, he's not the type anybody would go to bat for. Money buys allies, temporarily. Tyrion however seems to know this. He knows that despite the fact that Bronn sorta likes him he doesn't presume to think Bronn won't turn on him for the right price. Knowing that is powerful. Littlefinger thinks that his 'influence' will always protect him but he doesn't get that if you have to pay your friends to help you they probably aren't real friends anyway.

[Blackfish Tully]

you know brandon fought without amour and beat LF up without breaking a sweat or getting a scratch

LF is also known to missjudge persons( like the hound or that the mountain clans are A incredible danger to him )

Littlefinger also fought without armor so whats your point, how do you know that Brandon did not break a sweat or get a scratch ? as far as I know that's not in the book so you are just making it up. All we know about that fight was that Brandon won and gave Littlefinger a nasty cut but there is no shame for a 15 year old boy to lose a duel to a 20 year old warrior.

[Light a wight tonight]

Littlefinger also fought without armor so whats your point, how do you know that Brandon did not break a sweat or get a scratch ? as far as I know that's not in the book so you are just making it up. All we know about that fight was that Brandon won and gave Littlefinger a nasty cut but there is no shame for a 15 year old boy to lose a duel to a 20 year old warrior.

Petyr Baelish forced the fight. Brandon didn't want any part of it, but got tired of LF insisting, so they fought. He could easily have killed LF (damn shame he didn't) but settled for giving him an extremely serious wound.

The thing is, getting into a fight where he could have gotten killed over a girl who didn't like him was an idiotic move on LF's part. So much for him being clever.

[mattah84]

Petyr Baelish forced the fight. Brandon didn't want any part of it, but got tired of LF insisting, so they fought. He could easily have killed LF (damn shame he didn't) but settled for giving him an extremely serious wound.

The thing is, getting into a fight where he could have gotten killed over a girl who didn't like him was an idiotic move on LF's part. So much for him being clever.

Littlefinger is a CLEVER schemer actually, but he is a horrible person. However, in his defense about challengin Brandon Stark, he was 15 years old when he challenged him, and blinded by his feelings for Cat. I bet there is quite the difference between Petyr Baelish when he was 15, and Petyr Baelish that we read about now.

This is why I think Sansa is going to be his downfall. Though he is clever as they come, he made a stupid decision that almost killed him over Sansa's mom when he was 15. I think he will do the same at some point with Sansa, and it will backfire. I don't think he will challenge anyone over Sansa to a fight obviously, I just think he will be blinded somehow by his attraction to Sansa and will slip up big.

[Razha]

I have several theories concerning the future developments in the Vale.

One is that I suspect the best way for Petyr to solidify his position is :

1. marry Sansa to Harry

2. Kill sweetrobin

3. Wait until Sansa has a child with Harry

4. Kill harry

5. marry Sansa - becoming regent/stepfather to Sansa's baby who is legally the rightfull hair to Vale. Also he can try to use his marriage with Sansa to make claims either on the North or on riverlands (depending on political situation)

6. Then use the time until the child becomes adult to get hold of complete control over the Vale and at certain point in the future usurp the power.

This is a logical plan, and I can totally see Petyr trying to fulfill it...but... if course there are many "but" and the main one might be that at certain point Sansa will outsmart him. Most probably this might happen either after Sansa's marriage to Harry or when Petyr will be preparing to merry Sansa. ...

But of cousre there is also this option of some guys kidnepping Sansa from Vale before she marries Harry, crushimng all plans of Petyr....

[Ser Lepus]

I have several theories concerning the future developments in the Vale.

One is that I suspect the best way for Petyr to solidify his position is :

1. marry Sansa to Harry

2. Kill sweetrobin

3. Wait until Sansa has a child with Harry

4. Kill harry

5. marry Sansa - becoming regent/stepfather to Sansa's baby who is legally the rightfull hair to Vale. Also he can try to use his marriage with Sansa to make claims either on the North or on riverlands (depending on political situation)

6. Then use the time until the child becomes adult to get hold of complete control over the Vale and at certain point in the future usurp the power.

This is a logical plan, and I can totally see Petyr trying to fulfill it...but... if course there are many "but" and the main one might be that at certain point Sansa will outsmart him. Most probably this might happen either after Sansa's marriage to Harry or when Petyr will be preparing to merry Sansa. ...

But of cousre there is also this option of some guys kidnepping Sansa from Vale before she marries Harry, crushimng all plans of Petyr....

That could technically work, but I think people would start to notice all those convenient deaths that just happen to give Littlefinger more and more power, so when Sansa accuses him, everybody will believe her and many will make a move against him.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

My point was, up to now, there's no real motivation fo anyone to try

I imagine there's always a motivation to eliminate a power rival (unless you're Varys, but they've got a weird irresistible force unmovable object thing going on). There's always been a motive.

He doesn't have a target on his back, by design.

Any upstart has a target on his or her back.

I'm not going to argue that, actually. Tyrion's probably been fucked since the beginning. If you're expecting me to defend him or argue, sorry.

My point is that he should have been dead by the ACOK if luck were something measured in finite amounts.

The Great One's luck may hold, it will most likely not. Some characters' luck will hold, others won't.

The issue being that Baelish's friends are the kind you rent.

Without wanting to be flippant, it's lucky he's got money then no?

We don't know much about his friends, or even who many of them are. I can't presume he pays them all, though they are obviously mutually beneficial. I see no reason for that to change.

[Blackfish Tully]

Has anyone actually tried though? That's like saying you're undefeated in football, but you don't have a football team. Likewise it's easier to survive this series if no one is actually gunning for you.

.

The fact that nobody is gunning for Littlefinger just shows how much of a genius he is because tons of people should be gunning for him considering all the crap he's done.

He had Jon Arryn murdered and then blamed it on the Lannisters and then tricked Cat into blaming Tyrion for trying to kill Bran. He set up and betrayed Ned Stark and probably talked Joff into executing Ned. He then betrayed the Tyrells by telling the Lannisters that they were trying to marry Sansa to Willis. He then helps plan the murder of Joff while shifting blame to Tyrion and then steals Sansa from right under the Lannisters and Tyrell noses. He creates all this chaos but nobody has a clue that he was behind it all even Cersie still pines for him to return as Master of Coin.

[The Red Star]

Littlefinger wont die, it would be too out of charachter, he'll be there at the end with a smug little grin on his face

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Here is a completely silly and off the cuff prediction, which diverges wildly from my upthread analysis- Bronn (who I think has been LF's man all along) dies and LF somehow ends up with Lollys. Full circle. :P

[Ser Lepus]

Here is a completely silly and off the cuff prediction, which diverges wildly from my upthread analysis- Bronn (who I think has been LF's man all along) dies and LF somehow ends up with Lollys. Full circle. :P

Full circle? How is that a circle?

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Full circle? How is that a circle?

Circle back to Lady Taenda trying to snag him for Lollys in AGOT. Maybe more of a horseshoe. I said it was silliness :rolleyes:

[Ludd]

I think Bronn is his own man

But I quite seriously think that Bronn may become King. - King Aegon (Egg) had a feeble witted niece, who was technically heiress to the throne, but overlooked along with a son of mad Aerion. Now what if the feeble witted daughter married a less lord eg Stokeworth - quite reasonable match for a feeble witted girl. The feeble wits are partly hereditary and Lollys is her grandaughter. She could be Queen with King Bronn.