HERESY 50

[armidil0]

Joking answer: yep.. Pretty sure Martin has everything predetermined by himself

Serious answer: highly doubt it, seeing as fulfilling of prophecy is just not Martin's thing (and is one of the main fantasy tropes that he is trying to do away with). The only prophecy that I foresee as occurring is Cersei's, which will occur precisely because she is actively trying to forestall it

So is it futile to draw on prophecies to try and figure out what will happen in the future? Or to try and put current characters in those prophetic roles like Jon being AAR or Dany maybe being PtwP (as examples)? Or is it just a matter of the prophecies being so vague that we can put different people into multiple roles?

And Cersei's kids seemed to be doomed from the start, but who knows what would happen if she was a cool collected person (she wouldn't have those specific kids in the first place, for a possibility) so I think hers is a weird case.

[redriver]

Congrats Black Crow on hitting the 50 mark.I would never have shown your patience or tanacity in getting a thread this far.Aside from the Morrigan issue you're usually spot on.

That aside I think we agree on most things?

[Toccs]

It possible he's on Jon 4/5 but more likely he's on Jon 2/3. The larger point is how little has written since Dance.

GRRM doesn't write the book in the same order that we read it. He could be completely finished with all of Arya's chapters and all of Jon's before even starting anyone elses. Jon running through the forest being pursued by enemies could well be his last chapter in tWoW and be the cliffhanger it ends on.

That's a large part of the Meereense Knot problem, because having written all the individual stories for the characters involved he then had to piece them all together in a way that was coherent, and doing that necessitated several reworkings of certain events.

[Har!]

"I'm about a quarter of the way done" at the 1:00 mark.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2013/04/

First off this pretty much confirms that very little has been written since leftover chapters from Dance were about 200 pages and 1/4 of a 1500 page book is 375 pages. This also points to the scene with Jon in the forest GRRM had mentioned in another recent interview as being near the beinging of TWOW. Anyways, this is a disapointing amount of progress. I would love to see someone do the math to figure out when the book will be out based on his current slow progress.

this post seems pretty off topic, but in short he is asked how many pages he has finished and he says about 1/4. He also says he is making better progress than on other books. I assume then that he means he has 1/4 fully done, that does not preclude other pages that are done, but not fully done with edits rereads etc. That interpretation makes sense of both statements.

[Harlan]

Joking answer: yep.. Pretty sure Martin has everything predetermined by himself

Serious answer: highly doubt it, seeing as fulfilling of prophecy is just not Martin's thing (and is one of the main fantasy tropes that he is trying to do away with). The only prophecy that I foresee as occurring is Cersei's, which will occur precisely because she is actively trying to forestall it

I'm pretty sure almost every single prophecy in the books have been full-filled. First off, Jojen has at least three visions that come true (the winged wolf, the meal shared by bran rickon and the walders, and the ocean coming to winterfell). Robbs death was foretold by Melisandre, The woods witch (hill witch girl can't remember what we normally call her), and foreseen by Dany in the house of the undying. All of melisandre's prophecies have come true or still can come true. These prophecies include: If you [stannis] sail south to storm's end, you will gain most of your brothers [Renly's] forces. When you attack kingslanding, your brother [Renly] will squash you under the walls of kingslanding. A girl on a a horse will flea to the wall. Then we have Dothraki elder's prophecy which claims that dany's child will be the stallion who mounts the earth, Dany's child(ren) are dragons who 'mount' the world. There;s also the Cersei's prophecy about her kids and stuff which also came true. The only prophecy I can think of which hasn't come true is Quaithe's "Soon comes..." prophecy which is almost entirely true. The only part she screwed up is the coming of the false dragon. Aegon never came East, so the false dragon never came to dany, unless you think someone else is the false dragon?

Point being, Maybe things in ASoIaF are predetermined.

Essentially its down to the sequence of events and a some curious anomalies in the story. It opens with Ser Waymar and Will getting scragged by Craster's boys, but Gared escapes. How? On his horse is the obvious answer but how then does he get over the Wall all on his own, and why is he picked up near Winterfell at the same time as the direwolf?

I'm not convinced by the warging business; as with the inevitable suggestions that Bloodraven has his paws all over it, I think that this is an over-used excuse for anything that doesn't have an obvious explanation. "It wasn't me officer, something made me do it."

Linking the events simply makes so much sense. There were six of Craster's boys in the ambush, when all we've seen since was the one pinked by Sam. So what were they up to? Were they just hunting or did Ser Waymar accidentally cross their path? In theory its possible that the direwolf may have found its way around the gorge by the Bridge of Skulls, but that secret portal under the Nightfort is so much more in keeping with what's happening and it needs a man of the Nights Watch to say the words. Giving Gared his life in return for taking the direwolf carrying those pups (and in particular the one with a snow white coat and blood-red eyes) through the portal and down to Winterfell makes a lot of sense to us as readers, but wouldn't make any sense to Ned Stark.

Just a final thought. There's no mention of a dead stag anywhere near the direwolf, yet what killed it was "A foot of shattered antler, tines snapped off," Was there ever a stag or was it an antler dagger which Gared used to kill it?

Have you considered that their may be no explanation. When GRRM first started this story, the first thing he thought up which would come to be ASOIAF was the Starks discovering the direwolfs. That scene is literally how the story began. The prolouge was written and thought up later. I'm of the opinion that the direwolf south of the wall is just a plothole.

Do you all think there may be some significance to the fact that gared and co were attacked by 6 of Craster's children? There also happens to be 6 stark children (if we count jon).

P. S. I just did a quick average thread rate calculation for the following intervals: past 10 threads, past 20 threads, past 30 threads, past 40 threads, and past 50 threads. For all the heresy threads or A₅₀ (meaning average over fifty threads) , I calculated an average thread time of 9.8 days per thread. For A₄₀, I calculated 8.3 days per thread. For A₃₀, I calculated 7.8 days per thready. For A₂₀, I calculated 6.2 days per thread. For A₁₀, I calculated 6.2 days per thread. Based on these calculations, I's state that heresy was accelerating but now has plateaued and likely will not continue to accelerate much in the near future. I think we can assume that future heresy threads should take an average of about 6 days to reach 20 pages of comments. This puts heresy 60 about 2 months away, and heresy 100 about 10 months away. We should be around heresy 100 in April of 2014.

[GoldenVale]

Gared ran from Craster's boys and suddenly he's south of the Wall and the direwolf pups are found nearby. I don't know how they all got through, but I have to assume it was at the same time. I think Martin purposely left out the details.

So it's up to us to figure out how Gared got past the Wall and how the direwolf mother and her pups did the same at presumably the same time.

Maybe Gared went through the Black Gate, but that doesn't explain the direwolves. Something happened that we haven't been told about. Unless the clues are there and we've all missed them.

So Gared said the words to pass through and the direwolf followed him through? Is this the real reason why Mance snuck his way into Winterfell during Robert's visit? To check and see if the Stark children had bonded with the wolf cubs?

This is a well established theory here in Heresyland that this is likely the case, with the addendum that the reason why the White Walkers let Gared live was because they tasked him with bringing the direwolf mother south of the Wall with him

I think this is all a little too speculative. It figures that a crow like Gared would know certain other ways past the wall outside of the Black Gate to get across as evidenced by the wilding raids.

Even so if the wildlings did let him live with the purpose of trafficking the direwolf then that would open a whole new can of wryms. The wights are capable of much more including the ability to articulate a commans and the ability to control an animal seemingly outside of warging.

As for Mance that would mean he would either be working with the plot or at least had some knowledge of it.

In theory its possible that the direwolf may have found its way around the gorge by the Bridge of Skulls, but that secret portal under the Nightfort is so much more in keeping with what's happening and it needs a man of the Nights Watch to say the words. Giving Gared his life in return for taking the direwolf carrying those pups (and in particular the one with a snow white coat and blood-red eyes) through the portal and down to Winterfell makes a lot of sense to us as readers, but wouldn't make any sense to Ned Stark.

Just a final thought. There's no mention of a dead stag anywhere near the direwolf, yet what killed it was "A foot of shattered antler, tines snapped off," Was there ever a stag or was it an antler dagger which Gared used to kill it?

I think the direwolf finding its way on it’s own is more likely. The wights seems to kill man and beast alike so is it hard to fathom that the direwolf might have been fleeing the white walkers as well as looking for food that the wigts might be depleting?

As for the stag you could be right for the wrong reason. There was no stag carcass because there was no dead stag. The stag just happened to win the fight against a heavily pregnant direwolf.

I think that the term is misleading. Because its in the kitchen or purported kitchen Bran and the gang make the immediate assumption that its a well for the drawing of water, but a better way of describing it would be as a shaft. Basically a well is just another word for a vertical shaft going into something. An obvious alternative example would be a light well in a large building.

In this case we have a well or shaft going deep into the earth, not for water but to access that magic portal. In this connection its also worth noting that when they are later approaching the cave of the children Coldhands mentions that there is another entrance in the form of a sinkhole, which is a natural shaft and perhaps if we ever see it something not at all unlike the "well" in the Nightfort.

As to using wells for sacrifice, there are easier ways of drowning unwanted children and puppies without making the water taste funny. What's actually happening is that the sacrifice is being put into the earth - deep into the earth.

And just a naughty thought to finish, who sings the songs of the earth?

This also fits in well (hehe) with the dark and violent history of the NIghtfort that we've been treated to throughout the books summarized by Bran:

Jojen gazed up at him with his dark green eyes. “There’s nothing here to hurt us, Your Grace.”

Bran wasn’t so certain. The Nightfort had figured in some of Old Nan’s scariest stories. It was here that Night’s King had reigned, before his

name was wiped from the memory of man. This was where the Rat Cook had served the Andal king his prince-and-bacon pie, where the

seventy-nine sentinels stood their watch, where brave young Danny Flint had been raped and murdered. This was the castle where King

Sherrit had called down his curse on the Andals of old, where the ’prentice boys had faced the thing that came in the night, where blind

Symeon Star-Eyes had seen the hellhounds fighting. Mad Axe had once walked these yards and climbed these towers, butchering his brothers

in the dark.

It’s obvious that there's more to the Nightfort and what perhaps the real reason it was abandoned.

The fact that it might have been a place for sacrifice is made stronger by the references we’ve had to sacrifice that have already been brought up including unwanted children, the sacrifice in Bran’s weirwood viewing party, Craster’s sons etc.

[Tyryan Lannister]

I think this is all a little too speculative. It figures that a crow like Gared would know certain other ways past the wall outside of the Black Gate to get across as evidenced by the wilding raids.

Even so if the wildlings did let him live with the purpose of trafficking the direwolf then that would open a whole new can of wryms. The wights are capable of much more including the ability to articulate a commans and the ability to control an animal seemingly outside of warging.

As for Mance that would mean he would either be working with the plot or at least had some knowledge of it.

Think you're mixing a few of the actors up. What we are positing is that the reason the White Walkers let Gared live was because they somehow used him to bring the shewolf south of the Wall and they somehow were able to communicate to him that he should use the Black Gate. The wights and the wildlings have nothing to do with it.

As to Mance, who's to say he wasn't?

[The Chequered Raven]

I'm assuming the direwolf was willing, or perhaps more likely had effectively been hypnotised, programmed, bewitched or whatever and having been convoyed to the wall by Craster's boys, it then fell to Gared to take it through the portal and kill it near Winterfell.

Surely!

We just have to ask: would a human be able to bring/carry an adult direwolf against his will over the Wall and some hundred miles towards Winterfell?

Another question is: why was it willing?

I am as well no friend of the easy "he was warged" answer, but at least we cann not definitely exclude this possibility.

[Black Crow]

So is it futile to draw on prophecies to try and figure out what will happen in the future? Or to try and put current characters in those prophetic roles like Jon being AAR or Dany maybe being PtwP (as examples)? Or is it just a matter of the prophecies being so vague that we can put different people into multiple roles?

And Cersei's kids seemed to be doomed from the start, but who knows what would happen if she was a cool collected person (she wouldn't have those specific kids in the first place, for a possibility) so I think hers is a weird case.

I think the short answer is that the prophecies are plot drivers but not true indicators of what's going to happen. People learn of the prophecies and try to act accordingly either to fulfill them (Mel proclaiming Stannis as Azor Ahai) or block or subvert them (Cersei and the younger queen) - actions which have consequences.

Yet while the prophecies are eventually being fulfilled they're not working out as interpreted and once again the classic is Jojen's greendream of the sea coming up over Winterfell's walls, which turned out to be the Ironborn.

That true outcome wasn't possible for readers to work out in advance, but reactions to it did shape some minor events in the meantime. Similarly Cersei's current obsession both with the younger queen, whom she presumes to be Maergery and with the Valonquar which she identifies with Tyrion is leading her to do things tending to her down fall without either of them lifing a finger

[Black Crow]

Surely!

We just have to ask: would a human be able to bring/carry an adult direwolf against his will over the Wall and some hundred miles towards Winterfell?

absoloutely not

Another question is: why was it willing?

I am as well no friend of the easy "he was warged" answer, but at least we cann not definitely exclude this possibility.

That essentially is at the heart of the theory that Gared brought it through. Yes we know that GRRM started off with the mental picture of the dead direwolf in the forest a long time ago, but he wasn't a newbie writer when he began, he's going to have to have thought about how it got there.

Apart from being too easy the problem with the warging theory is that the Wall is in the way and we know that it has a blocking effect on the magic. Craster's boys or whoever else was bringing the direwolf south can't pass the Wall, hence the need for Gared to take it through the Black Gate. What sort of glamour was placed on the beast to render it obedient to him isn't obvious, but its a much more plausible scenario than a superficial reading of the story - namely that Gared does a runner to escape from the ambush, somehow gets over the Wall all by himself and makes it down to just outside Winterfell without being caught and then on the very same day the direwolf turns up dead on their doorstep. There has to be a connection.

[Black Crow]

Do you all think there may be some significance to the fact that gared and co were attacked by 6 of Craster's children? There also happens to be 6 stark children (if we count jon).

The connection has been noted - it also being one for each of the pups. Exactly what the significance of this might be is a bit hard to say because the number six does crop up quite a lot; there are the six elements of the Reeds oath (plus the crows?) and there are the six aspects of the Faith (plus the Stranger). There could therefore be some sort of meaning to it, but we can't exclude the other possibilities that its GRRM's little joke and that he's laying a false trail, or that its a random coincidence.

Given that its the beginning of the first book I think its probably a bit early in the day for red herrings aimed at confusing fans, so you have to take your pick as to the other two.

[Hrafntýr]

I think the short answer is that the prophecies are plot drivers but not true indicators of what's going to happen. People learn of the prophecies and try to act accordingly either to fulfill them (Mel proclaiming Stannis as Azor Ahai) or block or subvert them (Cersei and the younger queen) - actions which have consequences.

Yet while the prophecies are eventually being fulfilled they're not working out as interpreted and once again the classic is Jojen's greendream of the sea coming up over Winterfell's walls, which turned out to be the Ironborn.

That true outcome wasn't possible for readers to work out in advance, but reactions to it did shape some minor events in the meantime. Similarly Cersei's current obsession both with the younger queen, whom she presumes to be Maergery and with the Valonquar which she identifies with Tyrion is leading her to do things tending to her down fall without either of them lifing a finger

I think that we should definitely assume that prophecies don't work out as anticipated, but should also assume that prophecies may speak to more than one event, and be equally true for those multiple events/interpretations. This has struck me most forcefully in Dany's prophecies, which she keeps assuming that she can sort of "check off" the list when something seems to match it. She may be right that some of the events she's experienced match the prophecy, but it doesn't preclude the possibility (I'd say likelihood) that other events will occur that also match the prophecy. In other words, prophecies can be fulfilled in more than one way, and each way should be considered a "true" fulfillment of the prophecy. It speaks to the fact that there are patterns in worldly events, that actions materialize as a constellation of forces, and that similar forces constellate in similar ways. Of course some "prophecies" seem very singular and direct in their interpretation, but others seem likely to apply equally to a number of situations, all of which can be equally true.

[Black Crow]

Quite, and interpreting the "born amidst salt and smoke" business is the most obvious, with the trick being not to identify who it applies to but rather to sift through the many to which it might be applied in search of the correct candidate. In the meantime those characters who think they have identified their candidate are acting accordingly; Mel in promoting Stannis as AA and Benero/Moqorro promoting Danaerys. At this stage whether either or neither is correct doesn't necessarily matter, what does matter is what each faction is doing in the belief that they are furthering the prophecy.

[brut]

I was forced to take a break from the Heretic thoughts, as suspiciously, His Grace Black Crow and Morrigan were converging into one and appearing in my dreams. Scary.

Anyhow, during this time of absence, several ideas popped:

- In the earlier heresies, we assumed that another wall may have existed prior to the current one, hypothesizing - if memory serves - that it was built around Moat Cailin. There could have been yet another wall on the Arm of Dorne, protecting the early Westeros from the First Men. Both preceding walls were protecting the magic realm from the invasion of men, but both failed, and were shattered, thus causing flooding. If we follow this line of thought, then the today's Ice realm is not threatened by the mass-invasion of the men from South. What we are seeing now is rather the preparation for a conflict between the two magic realms - Ice and Fire. The Fire side's foothold is Valyria's Fourteen Fires, and they have prepared the ground work by ridding the humanity from their realm (Doom). On the other side, the Ice realm is doing the same - getting rid of the pesky humans from the LoAW, and probably expanding their foothold across the Westeros. So, the Wall, if it will be shattered this time around, would serve the purpose of expansion, rather than the desperate act of protection.

[Hrafntýr]

Quite, and interpreting the "born amidst salt and smoke" business is the most obvious, with the trick being not to identify who it applies to but rather to sift through the many to which it might be applied in search of the correct candidate. In the meantime those characters who think they have identified their candidate are acting accordingly; Mel in promoting Stannis as AA and Benero/Moqorro promoting Danaerys. At this stage whether either or neither is correct doesn't necessarily matter, what does matter is what each faction is doing in the belief that they are furthering the prophecy.

I think I'm suggesting something just slightly different, not that there is one correct candidate or set of events to which a single prophecy might apply, but rather that it might apply to more than one, all correctly. Thus, the "born amidst salt and smoke" might apply differently, but no less accurately, to more than one person and/or set of circumstances. Of course, knowledge of prophecy affects how people behave and interpret events. For example, the prophecy regarding the girl in grey on a dying horse is taken to be Arya and sets certain events into motion. Then we see Alysane and we think: Oh, the prophecy was accurate but misinterpreted to be Jon's sister. But this doesn't mean that we won't see it apply to one of Jon's sisters, or indeed that there aren't other girls in grey on dying horses to which it applies.

[Black Crow]

I feel we're basically saying the same thing because ultimately its only going to be after its all over that we see how the prophecy turned out or rather perhaps how it can retrospectively applied. Leaving individuals aside there is an expectation that the Azor Ahai prophecy relates to the appearance of a hero who will fight the good fight against the forces of darkness, when in fact it may turn out to be something else entirely. Mel is interpreting it in terms of the fight against the Great Other who most readers are also rushing to identify with whoever or whatever may be behind the Others, while Master Benero and his disciples are looking to the overthrow of the Old Blood behind the Black Walls. Presumably its going to turn out to be neither, but in the meantime...

[Black Crow]

I was forced to take a break from the Heretic thoughts, as suspiciously, His Grace Black Crow and Morrigan were converging into one and appearing in my dreams.

Its OK I'm not going to tell you that you can fly.

[redriver]

I think I'm suggesting something just slightly different, not that there is one correct candidate or set of events to which a single prophecy might apply, but rather that it might apply to more than one, all correctly. Thus, the "born amidst salt and smoke" might apply differently, but no less accurately, to more than one person and/or set of circumstances. Of course, knowledge of prophecy affects how people behave and interpret events. For example, the prophecy regarding the girl in grey on a dying horse is taken to be Arya and sets certain events into motion. Then we see Alysane and we think: Oh, the prophecy was accurate but misinterpreted to be Jon's sister. But this doesn't mean that we won't see it apply to one of Jon's sisters, or indeed that there aren't other girls in grey on dying horses to which it applies.

I like this.The stone giant that Bran sees in his coma dream is argued about whether it's Ser Gregor or Littlefinger.

It can,and was probably designed to apply to either.The same with Dany's HOTU vision of a king with blue eyes bearing a red sword.General consensus is that this represents Stannis with some theories that it may be Jon at a future point in time.Again,I think it can be and is both.

I'm applying this type of thinking to the Horn of Winter in retrospect,which I think can have been both a comet and later, a real magical blowing Horn.The past can be as hazy and opaque as the future.

[Tyryan Lannister]

I feel we're basically saying the same thing because ultimately its only going to be after its all over that we see how the prophecy turned out or rather perhaps how it can retrospectively applied. Leaving individuals aside there is an expectation that the Azor Ahai prophecy relates to the appearance of a hero who will fight the good fight against the forces of darkness, when in fact it may turn out to be something else entirely. Mel is interpreting it in terms of the fight against the Great Other who most readers are also rushing to identify with whoever or whatever may be behind the Others, while Master Benero and his disciples are looking to the overthrow of the Old Blood behind the Black Walls. Presumably its going to turn out to be neither, but in the meantime...

hmmm.... Stannis becomes new Night's King. Through his new found allies and powers, he is finally able to take the Iron Throne for himself... until Dany finally arrives in Westeros to off him. :dunno:

[Tyryan Lannister]

I like this.The stone giant that Bran sees in his coma dream is argued about whether it's Ser Gregor or Littlefinger.

It can,and was probably designed to apply to either.The same with Dany's HOTU vision of a king with blue eyes bearing a red sword.General consensus is that this represents Stannis with some theories that it may be Jon at a future point in time.Again,I think it can be and is both.

I'm applying this type of thinking to the Horn of Winter in retrospect,which I think can have been both a comet and later, a real magical blowing Horn.The past can be as hazy and opaque as the future.

Hell it could be (f)Aegon--IIRC when Tyrion first meets him, he perceives his eyes as being blue due to his blue hair tricking his mind into believing so.