What if?: Jon Snow doesn't join the Night's Watch

[HawkBat]

As the title implies, for whatever reason, the night before he is supposed to make his way to the Wall, Jon Snow decides he'd rather stay in Winterfell. Other than this change, his personality remains the same as in the original timeline.

How do events now unfold?

[kephv]

How do events now unfold?

In four very different books.

[Morienthar]

He would be dead,killed during either the Red Wedding or a Battle somewhere fighting with Robb.

Or If he was left behind in Winterfell to look after the affairs of the North,He would either be with Bran or Rickon or would have been killed by Theon Greyjoy.

[David Selig]

As the title implies, for whatever reason, the night before he is supposed to make his way to the Wall, Jon Snow decides he'd rather stay in Winterfell.

He'd be kicked out of Winterfell by Cat anyway.

Eventually he'd have died at the RW.

[The Pain Yak]

As the title implies, for whatever reason, the night before he is supposed to make his way to the Wall, Jon Snow decides he'd rather stay in Winterfell. Other than this change, his personality remains the same as in the original timeline.

How do events now unfold?

Jon becomes a part of Robb's storyline, fighting for the King in the North, right up until he's murdered at RW. Also, without his warning of their approach or his leadership during the siege, Mance overruns the Wall and kills off what's left of the Night's Watch before Stannis can reach them.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

If he went south with Robb,i think he would have died during Red Wedding.If he stayed North ,Theon would be dead and Winterfell would still be standing.

[joluoto]

He would go south with Robb. He might have died at the RW.

[David Selig]

If he went south with Robb,i think he would have died during Red Wedding.If he stayed North ,Theon would be dead and Winterfell would still be standing.

So Jon would defeat the Ironborn on his own?

[Jon's Queen Consort]

WF wouldn't had been ironsacked.

[kephv]

Why's that? Of course it would have. And Jon would probably be the first one Theon executed. There's just no way Jon would've been able to keep his mouth shut if his pride was so desperately on the line (this is assuming he doesn't get those hard lessons in AGoT).

[Errant Bard]

So Jon would defeat the Ironborn on his own?

Jon is so much more... clairvoyant and badass than any other adult in Winterfell, including Luwin, of course him being here means they would have expected the surprise attack, of course him being here would have meant they would have won when outnumbered and hostages taken.

But this is rather specious, as if he had been in the North, he would actually have gone with Rodrick Cassel to Thorren's Square... And he would have died at Ramsay's hand, same as Cley Cerwyn and Rodrick.

Anyway, he does not go to the Watch, hmm:

• Sam dies.
  
• Mormont dies.
  
• The Watch does no range to the fist, it is not destroyed.
  
• No black ranger is available to guide Bran to Coldhands. Jojen and co end up captured by the Watch.
  
• A new Lord Commander is chosen, likely Torrhen Smallwood
  
• Stannis does not go North (would the Watch even have sent messengers if killing Mormont had been successful?)
  
• Mance takes the Wall (given that without warning, the raiders can easily surprise castles from behind.) Would weight even heavier on Robb in the failures department, even if the Watch is not technically his business.
  
• Alys Kastarks does not succeed at her coup.
  
• Due to the Wildlings North, mountain clans and more generally Northmen gear up to fight them, and attacking Bolton is not on the radar (Stannis could or could not be there too)
  
• Jon goes south with Robb (there is no way Cat leaves him with Bran to seize the opportunity to rule Winterfell in all but in name), but does not die at the Red Wedding (He either dies with the Kastark boys in the Whispering Woods, highly likely, or he stays at Riverrun. Remember he's not authorized to sit at the high table when there's guests, and Catelyn is there too)

[The Pain Yak]

Not understanding the people who think Winterfell wouldn't have been sacked. This isn't High Fantasy, so it's not like he could have fought them off single-handed. The only thing Jon could have done to change Wintefell's fate would have been if he had figured out Theon's plan and warned Rodrick Cassell to not take the bait at Torrhen's Square, and for Rodrick to have listened when warned.

[Ice Turtle]

There is a real chance that Winterfell wouldn't have been sacked not because Jon could have defeated all Theon's men but because Mance used rather similar strategy at the Wall and Jon was able to see trough it:

“No. I was acting on orders. Qhorin Halfhand’s last command. Noye, where is the garrison?”

“Defending the Wall against your wildling friends.”

“Yes, but where?”

“Everywhere. Harma Dogshead was seen at Woodswatch-by-the-Pool, Rattleshirt at Long Barrow, the Weeper near Icemark. All along the Wall . . . they’re here, they’re there, they’re climbing near Queensgate, they’re hacking at the gates of Greyguard, they’re massing against Eastwatch . . . but one glimpse of a black cloak and they’re gone. Next day they’re somewhere else.”

Jon swallowed a groan. “Feints. Mance wants us to spread ourselves thin, don’t you see?” And Bowen Marsh has obliged him. “The gate is here. The attack is here.”

Maybe some people saw it too at Winterfell but didn't want to opposite Ser Rodrick as the authority, Jon never had a problem with that.

[ServantOnIce]

He would be dead,killed during either the Red Wedding or a Battle somewhere fighting with Robb.

Or If he was left behind in Winterfell to look after the affairs of the North,He would either be with Bran or Rickon or would have been killed by Theon Greyjoy.

This . ...

[Ser Greg of House House]

He would be at the Red Wedding. Probably he would've been killed, but if he managed to escape somehow he could meet Arya :)

I don't see him back at Winterfell. Cat would never allow him to be alone there with Bran and Rickon. She doesn't trust him. Not that she would think that he would do them any physical harm, but still...

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

So Jon would defeat the Ironborn on his own?

I have to spell out all the details now err.Jon would not have allowed Rodrik to take most of the force out of Winterfell.The remaining men which would have outnumbered Ironborn attacking Winterfell.These men alongwith Jon would have saved Winterfell.The Bastard of Bolton and his men would not have dared to attack Winterfell .All of north would have rallied behind Jon under the name of Bran or Rickkon after the Red Wedding where there primary aim would have been to hold the North.

[brAnthelAstgreenseer]

He would be at the Red Wedding. Probably he would've been killed, but if he managed to escape somehow he could meet Arya :)

I don't see him back at Winterfell. Cat would never allow him to be alone there with Bran and Rickon. She doesn't trust him. Not that she would think that he would do them any physical harm, but still...

The question of Cat allowing him to stay at Winterfell never rises.She had already gone from there when Robb was about to leave Winterfell.

[unSonofStannis]

He would've either got killed at the RW or taken hostage. If he would've stayed at Winterfell then Theon would've killed him.

[naik2902]

if he had nt gone to the wall then he would have gone with robb stark. whatever his story could be but he wont be getting killed. coz lord of light is after him. his fate is already predestined coz he is the one who holds the fate of the world.

[David Selig]

I have to spell out all the details now err.Jon would not have allowed Rodrik to take most of the force out of Winterfell.

Why would Jon be in position to allow or forbid Rodrik anything? Even Robb isn't dumb enough to put a 15 year old bastard with no experience in charge of Winterfell.

The question of Cat allowing him to stay at Winterfell never rises.She had already gone from there when Robb was about to leave Winterfell.

So? She would've kicked Jon out before she left. Ned left her in charge.