Elia Didn't Know Aegon Was Replaced With an Imposter

[Djinn]

Yes, perhaps but that would imply that Varys knew he would have needed change. And that`s just absurd. He could have organized escape route for Elia and her children and secure them. But, no, he had gone to find a child that resembles Aegon and switch him. I mean, in the chaos, he didn`t go to find Elia and make sure they are safe, he went on exchanging babies? Not just not likely, it`s illogical. Unless he didn`t do that, then he just had already a baby across Narrow sea with appropriate blood to claim the throne when the time comes.

Because smuggling a baby is much easier that a much more recognizable Dornish princess ad her daughter. Besides, if teories fliy that Manderly wants Rickon to control the North, wouldn't Varys consider the same with Aegon?

Were was Varys during the Sack? Nobody knows. He could've easily slipped into one of his many disguises and waited for the right time to switch the baby and smuggle it to Iliryo. He had the knowlege, resources and possible oportunity to do it.

It's also absurd how Bran/Rickon/Osha/Hodor hide in the crypts and Theon(that grew up there) never looks/finds them, but it happens. Sansa disappers, and suddentely, LF(the guy know for having a thing for her mom) has a daughter of similar age showing up. Cersei three children don't have a single thrace of Robert in them but it takes 13 years to someone to suspect.

[Mladen]

All he'd have to predict was that the rebellion would prevail and thus the babies would be killed. Granted it makes it easier when the baby's head is smashed, but even a baby killed with a dagger could be any baby, and I don't think it would be predictable that Tywin would present the dead babies as he did for other people to look and say "That dead baby isn't Aegon!"

Sneaking Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon all out is much harder than swapping a baby few people knew enough to recognize, and I think telling a woman I can save your son but not you may incline someone to trust, even if she would be reticent to give her son to a creep like Varys, it's pretty reasonable that you would at least try to have your son saved if no one could save you or your daughter along with it. Plus Tywin would ask where the hell Elia is and Varys would've lost his head among others.

I actually think Aegon is a Blackfyre but to say this was an impossible feat, to me, is not really true.

OK, let we see how many things Varys should have predicted:

1. War will go against Targaryens

2. Tywin will betray Aerys

3. He would need baby boy similar to Aegon

4. They will all be in immediate danger

5. He would need to save Elia`s son, but not the Princess and her daughter

Basically, he would have to predict the future, and people, Varys is just a man, clever man, but he is not all-mighty. He could have predicted half of the things I mentioned, but all of tem, there`s no chance for that. Especially if you argue that he went to Flea bottom, find the child, bought him and gave it to Elia, which was what Aegon said to us happened. In the chaos of sacking, Varys would have to be wizard to do all that.

But if you have time to go for baby and back, how difficult is it to sneak Elia and her children. Also, if he did, he must have someone to take care of boy, a nurse or some other woman, which basically returns us to the question: Why not Elia?

I mean his story works only if Elia is dead, and this lie, which is not the best lie in the world, can`t be disputed by anyone, since Elia is dead, and we have only Varys` words he is telling the truth. Well, people lie. It`s simple as that.

[Stark Revenge]

Well, Varys actually suspected of Tywin intentions before he got inside KL. In fact, after the Trident, it would make sense to take some measures to protect the heir, and lookalikes are hardly unheard in history. He could have found child after the Trident and waited for the right moment to do the switch. Jaime memories imply that the Red Keep didn't fell immediately, and Varys has access to the tunnel/passages system.

The problem with the switch is that Varys would have to anticipate many events that can`t be predicted. He should have found a child similar to Aegon on appearence with his silver hair, then he would have to go on exact right time, hoping that Tywin`s forces didn`t sack the city and switch the baby. You have to admit, it`s not just bizarre, it`s crackpot to believe Varys actually managed to do that.

Well, Varys actually suspected of Tywin intentions before he got inside KL. In fact, after the Trident, it would make sense to take some measures to protect the heir, and lookalikes are hardly unheard in history. He could have found child after the Trident and waited for the right moment to do the switch. Jaime memories imply that the Red Keep didn't fell immediately, and Varys has access to the tunnel/passages system.

All he'd have to predict was that the rebellion would prevail and thus the babies would be killed. In fact Varys advises against allowing Tywin into KL. Granted it makes it easier when the baby's head is smashed, but even a baby killed with a dagger could be any baby, and I don't think it would be predictable that Tywin would present the dead babies as he did for other people to look and say "That dead baby isn't Aegon!"

Sneaking Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon all out is much harder than swapping a baby few people knew enough to recognize, and I think telling a woman I can save your son but not you may incline someone to trust, even if she would be reticent to give her son to a creep like Varys, it's pretty reasonable that you would at least try to have your son saved if no one could save you or your daughter along with it. Plus Tywin would ask where the hell Elia is and Varys would've lost his head among others.

I actually think Aegon is a Blackfyre but to say this was an impossible feat, to me, is not really true. In fact if it's so crackpot then George is not a great writer. The whole point of this story is that you don't really know either way (yet) and while evidence favors him being fAegon, it's still remotely possible he's the real kid.

Never underestimate Varys. So long as he's playing the game all his actions shouldn't be cross examined and scrutinized until we are 100% sure of what he did, and even then GRRM could throw some crazy plot twist at us.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Never underestimate Varys. So long as he's playing the game all his actions shouldn't be cross examined and scrutinized until we are 100% sure of what he did, and even then GRRM could throw some crazy plot twist at us.

Don't underestimate Varys, but you shouldn't overestimate him either.

[Mladen]

It's also absurd how Bran/Rickon/Osha/Hodor hide in the crypts and Theon(that grew up there) never looks/finds them, but it happens. Sansa disappers, and suddentely, LF(the guy know for having a thing for her mom) has a daughter of similar age showing up. Cersei three children don't have a single thrace of Robert in them but it takes 13 years to someone to suspect.

Hiding in crypts while everyone is hunting you out there is smart. No one in the Vale knows about LF`s offspring. Even if there were not for pushing Bran, do you think truth would come out? Stannis suspected, but he had no proofs. Actually, children`s look means nothing... What Varys supposingly did confronts common sense...

[Mladen]

Never underestimate Varys. So long as he's playing the game all his actions shouldn't be cross examined and scrutinized until we are 100% sure of what he did, and even then GRRM could throw some crazy plot twist at us.

Don't underestimate Varys, but you shouldn't overestimate him either.

Varys is smart, extremly intelligent politician, but he is not all-knowing, and all-mighty. People, use logic... It never happened. Aegon is Elia`s son as I am.

[Stark Revenge]

Don't underestimate Varys, but you shouldn't overestimate him either.

Agreed, but as a13 points out we don't know where he was during the sack. For me that is great evidence for the swap.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Agreed, but as a13 points out we don't know where he was during the sack. For me that is great evidence for the swap.

Great evidence? Really? How could Varys have known that Aegon was going to be made unrecognisable? The idea that Elia wouldn't have known her own son is quite frankly preposterous.

[LightSpectra]

Everyone always dwells on the notion that ONLY Aegon was switched and nobody seems to have noticed. What about the possibility that Elia is Septa Lemore, she fled with Aegon, and Rhaenys is somewhere else?

[Mladen]

Everyone always dwells on the notion that ONLY Aegon was switched and nobody seems to have noticed. What about the possibility that Elia is Septa Lemore, she fled with Aegon, and Rhaenys is somewhere else?

Because Elia`s corpse was recognizable, and she was adult that was well known.

[Stark Revenge]

Everyone always dwells on the notion that ONLY Aegon was switched and nobody seems to have noticed. What about the possibility that Elia is Septa Lemore, she fled with Aegon, and Rhaenys is somewhere else?

If Elia didn't recognize her own son then there's even less of a chance that she and the princess could go years without being recognized.

[Djinn]

OK, let we see how many things Varys should have predicted:

1. War will go against Targaryens

2. Tywin will betray Aerys

3. He would need baby boy similar to Aegon

4. They will all be in immediate danger

5. He would need to save Elia`s son, but not the Princess and her daughter

Basically, he would have to predict the future, and people, Varys is just a man, clever man, but he is not all-mighty. He could have predicted half of the things I mentioned, but all of tem, there`s no chance for that. Especially if you argue that he went to Flea bottom, find the child, bought him and gave it to Elia, which was what Aegon said to us happened. In the chaos of sacking, Varys would have to be wizard to do all that.

But if you have time to go for baby and back, how difficult is it to sneak Elia and her children. Also, if he did, he must have someone to take care of boy, a nurse or some other woman, which basically returns us to the question: Why not Elia?

I mean his story works only if Elia is dead, and this lie, which is not the best lie in the world, can`t be disputed by anyone, since Elia is dead, and we have only Varys` words he is telling the truth. Well, people lie. It`s simple as that.

He only has to make educated guesses:

-Rhaegar died at the Trident, the Rebbilion is going to KL.

-Tywin marches to KL, will ruthlessly join the winners.

-Aegon will be put down.

Finding a child lookalike after the Trident would be hard but not impossible. Replace it, creating a future opportunity to control the Realm. Elia(sister to Doran) creates a greater urgency in neutralizing Aegon. Look a Viserys, they knew were he was but he wasn't percieved has having any support. Doran nephew, that's a different story. But if everybody believ that Aegon is dead, risk goes way down. Besides, if Aegon is isolated, makes him easier to influence. Maybe Aerys had Elia watched.

My point is that it's possible to accomplish the trick, not that it was what happened.

[The Mother of The Others]

Elia didn't know

okay. you sound confident of this possibility being possible, and I don't do research. so there we are.

[Mladen]

He only has to make educated guesses:

-Rhaegar died at the Trident, the Rebbilion is going to KL.

-Tywin marches to KL, will ruthlessly join the winners.

-Aegon will be put down.

Finding a child lookalike after the Trident would be hard but not impossible. Replace it, creating a future opportunity to control the Realm. Elia(sister to Doran) creates a greater urgency in neutralizing Aegon. Look a Viserys, they knew were he was but he wasn't percieved has having any support. Doran nephew, that's a different story. But if everybody believ that Aegon is dead, risk goes way down. Besides, if Aegon is isolated, makes him easier to influence. Maybe Aerys had Elia watched.

My point is that it's possible to accomplish the trick, not that it was what happened.

And mine is that it isn`t. Because we have quite resonant question: why saving Aegon? You already have Viserys. The story is made up to give credentials to Young Griff not to explain us what happened during Sack of KL.

[DarkAndFullOfTurnips]

OK, let we see how many things Varys should have predicted:

1. War will go against Targaryens

2. Tywin will betray Aerys

3. He would need baby boy similar to Aegon

4. They will all be in immediate danger

5. He would need to save Elia`s son, but not the Princess and her daughter

1. Easy prediction. Robert was winning left and right. Plus if the Targs win, then he can just return real Aegon to Elia.

2. Tywin was spurned by Aerys majorly. Varys advised against letting Tywin through KL gates, and you'll recall he basically stayed upon the fence, which is a surefire way of saying "I'll side with the winning side."

3. How's that a prediction? That's an action.

4. When the heirs live of a King whose dynasty is the only dynasty to rule the 7K, they have to die to give the usurper no worries of rebellion.

5. He can't save them all. How can he ship out Elia and an older Rhaeyns (much more recongizable than 1yr Aegon). This isn't even a prediction either.

So what you're saying is all he'd have to predict is that the Targs would lose and Tywin would favor the winning side, and that the heirs of the dynasty would be killed? Well then I agree with you.

[Mladen]

1. Easy prediction. Robert was winning left and right. Plus if the Targs win, then he can just return real Aegon to Elia.

2. Tywin was spurned by Aerys majorly. Varys advised against letting Tywin through KL gates, and you'll recall he basically stayed upon the fence, which is a surefire way of saying "I'll side with the winning side."

3. How's that a prediction? That's an action.

4. When the heirs live of a King whose dynasty is the only dynasty to rule the 7K, they have to die to give the usurper no worries of rebellion.

5. He can't save them all. How can he ship out Elia and an older Rhaeyns (much more recongizable than 1yr Aegon). This isn't even a prediction either.

So what you're saying is all he'd have to predict is that the Targs would lose and Tywin would favor the winning side, and that the heirs of the dynasty would be killed? Well then I agree with you.

As I said the first two are easy ones to predict, but

3. How would he predict he would need a baby to switch Aegon? Did he know he wouldn`t have time to save others? And that no one would recognize the boy?

4. I meant he couldn`t have predicted that they will have no time to prepare for army to come. When you are under siege, it lasts for days, Varys couldn`t have predicted that those days will actually be one.

5. He would have to predict that he just can save Aegon, but not the other two.

Varys had to predict situations that are truly unpredictable. And that`s why this is such a bad lie, that even Dany will see through it.

[rystine]

IMHO, the baby swap theory doesn't work for a few reasons. Even if you concede that Varys knew the rebels would win and the war would be brought to Kings Landing, there are simply too many variables that could not be predicted in enough time to make a swap plausible.

1. There was no guarantee that Elia would be killed. She was a valuable political hostage that, theoretically, would have been vital to bringing Dorne under the control of the new dynasty. If you can believe Tywin's retrospective account of the sack (which is admittedly questionable) even he didn't believe Gregor would kill her. If Elia lived, then any baby swap would have been useless.

2. There was no guarantee that Tywin was going to be the first inKings Landing until the minute it happened. Ned Stark was only hours, perhaps even only minutes, behind the Lannister army. And obviously if Ned and his men are the first in the Red Keep then there is no killing of Elia and her children. Varys would have certainly known the reputation of Ned by this point in time.

3. If there is any gap of more than a few minutes between the time of the swap and Elia and Aegon's killing then Elia would have certainly recognized that the child was not hers. Unless Elia just happened to rush into the nursery and grab the baby only seconds before Gregor did, then Varys' swap would have been for naught.

IMHO, it makes far more sense for Varys and Illyrio to have come up with the plan to claim that he swapped babies a few years later when they had a child in Essos who could conceivably pass for a Targaryen and a few years to fully formulate a plan.

On the other hand, I will say that a baby swap is not completely impossible, since as far as we know the only first hand account of Elia and Aegon's deaths comes from Gregor Clegane.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Are You Kidding?

There is absolutely no way a mother wouldn't notice her child (her breastfeeding child!) was switched. Period.

I can't believe this thread even exists.

[Mladen]

Are You Kidding?

There is absolutely no way a mother wouldn't notice her child (her breastfeeding child!) was switched. Period.

I can't believe this thread even exists.

You can`t? Have you noticed how many threads are opened similar to this in the past days. I wish the TV season ends once and we all return to good old discussions.

[DarkAndFullOfTurnips]

As I said the first two are easy ones to predict, but

3. How would he predict he would need a baby to switch Aegon? Did he know he wouldn`t have time to save others? And that no one would recognize the boy?

4. I meant he couldn`t have predicted that they will have no time to prepare for army to come. When you are under siege, it lasts for days, Varys couldn`t have predicted that those days will actually be one.

5. He would have to predict that he just can save Aegon, but not the other two.

Varys had to predict situations that are truly unpredictable. And that`s why this is such a bad lie, that even Dany will see through it.

It's been argued considerably and I'm sure we've both read both sides many times and now just regurgitating that so I'll stop with the Varys "mastermind" defense. But how much does Dany even know about the sack? Is she even aware of Varys, I can't remember? I think her friction with Aegon will exist because she's not going to marry "Her nephew" and take second place to an inexperienced, immature miracle boy whose throne she has been fighting for since Viserys died. Dany has long passed the point where she's going to let someone else come out of the blue and claim to have the better claim. She didn't even respect Viserys, albeit totally nuts, but had a better claim than she.