since when is Aegon (F)Aegon?

[Consigliere]

I don't think it's "clearly" a different Aegon; he knows to whom Kevan is referring. Why bother prevaricating to a dead man?

Varys and Kevan were not alone in the room.

The exchange between Varys and Kevan:

Varys: “Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”

Kevan: “Aegon?. Dead. He’s dead.”

Varys: “No. He is here."

There is no doubt that the kid who landed in the Stormlands is named Aegon. Varys was clearly referring to this Aegon and therefore he did not lie. The line “For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains” exists only in Kevan's thoughts. In all likelihood Varys knew to whom Kevan was referring but he neither confirmed nor denied Kevan's assumption.

[Chebyshov]

There is no doubt that the kid who landed in the Stormlands is named Aegon. Varys was clearly referring to this Aegon and therefore he did not lie. The line “For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains” exists only in Kevan's thoughts. In all likelihood Varys knew to whom Kevan was referring but he neither confirmed nor denied Kevan's assumption.

Yeah, you know I misread the post I originally quoted thinking it said something like "Varys was clearly talking about a different Aegon," to which I would have objected to the use of the word "clearly." He is definitely talking about the Aegon in the Stormlands, which I guess never confirms nor denies if that is, indeed, a "different Aegon."

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Toyne (so far as we know about him) does seem to have been one of the last that truly believed in the original cause of the GC. If he knew that there was a possibility of members the Blackfyre line living apart from the GC, then there would perhaps be the possibility that Varys told him Aegon was a Blackfyre. But would that be proof that Aegon really is one? Varys fooled Jon C, why could he have not lied about Aegon having Blackfyre origins to Toyne? What proof could he have offered?

Ehm.. If I might ask, what is there that suggests this?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Toyne (so far as we know about him) does seem to have been one of the last that truly believed in the original cause of the GC. If he knew that there was a possibility of members the Blackfyre line living apart from the GC, then there would perhaps be the possibility that Varys told him Aegon was a Blackfyre. But would that be proof that Aegon really is one? Varys fooled Jon C, why could he have not lied about Aegon having Blackfyre origins to Toyne? What proof could he have offered?

But I think a perfectly reasonable explanation is that Toyne knew the Blackyre line had died out entirely, and so agreed to support a Targaryen. Maelys could have left behind a sister or distaff cousin who lived with the GC died later, which would satisfy the quote that Maelys was the last male-line Blackfyre. Homeless Harry broke his contract with Myr to honour the contract Toyne had made earlier, I see that as being sufficient to warrant the some contracts are writ in ink, some in blood line.

Suppose this scenario

. Maelys marries his sister to one of the other nine penny kings, Alequo Adarys. They conquer Tyrosh, and install him as ruler. Maelys goes to war in westeros and dies, but leaves behind a pregnant sister under the care of the ruler of Tyrosh (that stayed in power some years after the war of ninepenny kings as we were told)

That girl ends up having a son (i´m a believer in the theory of (f)Aegon brightfyre, in which Illyrio is the scion of house blackfyre).. Later on Alequo Adarys ends up losing power in Tyrosh.. Therefore Illyrio and his mother end up impoverished and leave the city.

Aegon says he has a mother from tyrosh. Every lie is stronger when it has some truth in it. He could actually have a grandmother from tyrosh. This also explains Illyrio´s contacts in Tyrosh.

Again, it could be a daughter (with him marrying the daughter of Alequo) instead of a nephew, and this daughter later on having Illyrio..

If this happened, the Golden Company would certainly know of the existence of this female line. Probably even knowing Illyrio´s mother. I don´t think much proof would be needed to convince them. Probably just by showing Blackfyre (the sword) would be enough.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Suppose this scenario

. Maelys marries his sister to one of the other nine penny kings, Alequo Adarys. They conquer Tyrosh, and install him as ruler. Maelys goes to war in westeros and dies, but leaves behind a pregnant sister under the care of the ruler of Tyrosh (that stayed in power some years after the war of ninepenny kings as we were told)

That girl ends up having a son (i´m a believer in the theory of (f)Aegon brightfyre, in which Illyrio is the scion of house blackfyre).. Later on Alequo Adarys ends up losing power in Tyrosh.. Therefore Illyrio and his mother end up impoverished and leave the city.

Aegon says he has a mother from tyrosh. Every lie is stronger when it has some truth in it. He could actually have a grandmother from tyrosh. This also explains Illyrio´s contacts in Tyrosh.

Again, it could be a daughter (with him marrying the daughter of Alequo) instead of a nephew, and this daughter later on having Illyrio..

If this happened, the Golden Company would certainly know of the existence of this female line. Probably even knowing Illyrio´s mother. I don´t think much proof would be needed to convince them. Probably just by showing Blackfyre (the sword) would be enough.

But in this scenario, I do have a question: Why would the men of the GC care about the grandchild of Maelys' sister?

You put some thought into it, and that's nice, :) because most people who place Illyrio as a Blackyfyre, don't bother to make any possible connection at all (though, if you're going with Maelys' sister got pregnant in the 6 years between the War of the Ninepenny Kings and the fall of Alequo, I'd stick with Illyrio's the kid, since otherwise, Illyrio would currently only be 20 years old, and that seens to absolutely not be the case)

But then, would you make Aegon Illyrio's son?

I'm not sure about female lines going distant. Female lines don't seem to matter very much in Westeros, so they also wouldn't matter very much to Westerosi men in Essos, it seems to me.

[Chebyshov]

Suppose this scenario

. Maelys marries his sister to one of the other nine penny kings, Alequo Adarys. They conquer Tyrosh, and install him as ruler. Maelys goes to war in westeros and dies, but leaves behind a pregnant sister under the care of the ruler of Tyrosh (that stayed in power some years after the war of ninepenny kings as we were told)

That girl ends up having a son (i´m a believer in the theory of (f)Aegon brightfyre, in which Illyrio is the scion of house blackfyre).. Later on Alequo Adarys ends up losing power in Tyrosh.. Therefore Illyrio and his mother end up impoverished and leave the city.

Aegon says he has a mother from tyrosh. Every lie is stronger when it has some truth in it. He could actually have a grandmother from tyrosh. This also explains Illyrio´s contacts in Tyrosh.

Again, it could be a daughter (with him marrying the daughter of Alequo) instead of a nephew, and this daughter later on having Illyrio..

If this happened, the Golden Company would certainly know of the existence of this female line. Probably even knowing Illyrio´s mother. I don´t think much proof would be needed to convince them. Probably just by showing Blackfyre (the sword) would be enough.

And how serendipitous that he just happens to be around the same age as the true-born heir to the IT, who happened to die in such a manner that his body was unrecognizable.

This is really well thought-out, and there's room for it to happen, but as of ADWD, there's simply no textual evidence to support it.

[Fae Boleyn]

This is the first time - twice now - that people have pointed out Varys and Kevan not being alone that I've seen. I'm sure it's happened far more, just not in threads I was reading.

Pity, because it's a lot more convincing than "he just let Kevan assume" because I could think of no motivation to do that from Varys' perspective aside from the idea that long cons should be lived all the time.

One thing no one has explained to my knowledge, at least about the Blackfyre theory and variants. What's the point of a Blackfyre restoration no one knows about? Let's be honest, at this point a Blackfyre probably doesn't need to be anything else. Westeros is a mess, just as Varys wanted. They could get Dorne still with the promise of revenge for Elia and her kids, and if "a dragon is still a dragon" even a Blackfyre - or Brightflame, or Brightfyre (my favorite) - is better than no dragon at all. Blue Aegon is already being met with skepticism, real or fake - I've seen a theory that Tyrell and Tarly are playing him down on purpose and I can't reference the other skeptic because I can't spoiler cut on my phone but those who read the Arianne TWoW sample know what I mean.

An heir of either or both exiled branches might not have the ease of gaining support that they assume Aegon will have, but who's to say he will if skepticism stays a pattern?

I just have trouble seeing the endgame. Eventual reveal? But then, why raise Aegon as Rhaegar's son? Why not raise him as the black dragon most believe he is and teach him to lie? A restoration that no one, not even the king candidate, is aware of? I feel bad for Blue Aegon if they mean to tell him later - identity crisis like whoa.

Is it all so Varys and Illyrio can pat themselves on the back and secretly be proud of themselves?

[Chebyshov]

<snip>

:agree:

My thoughts exactly.

Side note, but wasn't the trick of Illyrio & Varys way back when to steal goods from someone and sell them back at a higher price? It could be that their plan is the same thing, but on a larger scale: steal the throne from the Targs (which would explain why Varys whispered to Aerys about Rhaegar), and then "sell it back," or reclaim it for a Targ, at a "higher price." Which I guess would be political control? It's not a perfect fit, but given Varys's "for the realm" attitude, I've never understood why he'd whisper about Rhaegar's potential coup to Aerys.

[Buried Treasure]

Ehm.. If I might ask, what is there that suggests this?

Um...I don't know? I didn't want to admit that I don't really remember much of what was said about Toyne other than I have an impression he was fierce. But for the sake of the discussion it made sense to think of him as a true Blackfyre loyalist.

Suppose this scenario

. Maelys marries his sister to one of the other nine penny kings, Alequo Adarys. They conquer Tyrosh, and install him as ruler. Maelys goes to war in westeros and dies, but leaves behind a pregnant sister under the care of the ruler of Tyrosh (that stayed in power some years after the war of ninepenny kings as we were told)

That girl ends up having a son (i´m a believer in the theory of (f)Aegon brightfyre, in which Illyrio is the scion of house blackfyre).. Later on Alequo Adarys ends up losing power in Tyrosh.. Therefore Illyrio and his mother end up impoverished and leave the city.

Aegon says he has a mother from tyrosh. Every lie is stronger when it has some truth in it. He could actually have a grandmother from tyrosh. This also explains Illyrio´s contacts in Tyrosh.

Again, it could be a daughter (with him marrying the daughter of Alequo) instead of a nephew, and this daughter later on having Illyrio..

If this happened, the Golden Company would certainly know of the existence of this female line. Probably even knowing Illyrio´s mother. I don´t think much proof would be needed to convince them. Probably just by showing Blackfyre (the sword) would be enough.

Well I don't suppose that scenario, there are too many unknowns and speculations. But I will suppose a scenario where Maelys' sister's son ends up impoverished. Why does he not go to the Golden Company then? He would not have needed to ask them to win him the Iron Throne, just give him a home with them and a future as a wealthy sellsword - I believe that 30 or 40 years ago residual loyalty to the Blackfyre would have run that far. My basic problem with the idea of the Blackfyre line surviving is that I believe they would have remained supported by the GC, not hidden and unknown until Varys presented Aegon.

[Chebyshov]

Here's everything on Toyne. I bolded the one part everyone points to:

Blackheart. Myles Toyne had been so full of life the last time Griff had left him, it was hard to

accept that he was gone. A golden skull atop a pole, and Homeless Harry Strickland in his place. Lemore

was not wrong, he knew. Whatever their sires or their grandsires might have been back in Westeros

before their exile, the men of the Golden Company were sell-swords now, and no sellsword could be

trusted. Even so …

“There is wisdom in that,” Griff admitted. It might have been different if Blackheart still

commanded, but Myles Toyne was four years dead, and Homeless Harry Strickland was a different sort

of man. He would not say that to the boy, however. That dwarf had already planted enough doubts in

his young head. “Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary …

but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful.” King Aerys

was one such. By the end, even Rhaegar saw that plain enough. “You would do best to walk a middle

course. Let men earn your trust with leal service … but when they do, be generous and openhearted.”

“There. On the end.” Flowers pointed. “Wait. I’ll go announce you.” He slipped inside the tent,

leaving Griff to contemplate the gilded skull of his old friend. In life, Ser Myles Toyne had been ugly as

sin. His famous forebear, the dark and dashing Terrence Toyne of whom the singers sang, had been so

fair of face that even the king’s mistress could not resist him; but Myles had been possessed of jug ears,

a crooked jaw, and the biggest nose that Jon Connington had ever seen. When he smiled at you, though,

none of that mattered. Blackheart, his men had named him, for the sigil on his shield. Myles had loved

the name and all it hinted at. “A captain-general should be feared, by friend and foe alike,” he had once

confessed. “If men think me cruel, so much the better.” The truth was otherwise. Soldier to the bone,

Toyne was fierce but always fair, a father to his men and always generous to the exile lord Jon

Connington.

Jon Connington might have been one of those successors if his exile had gone otherwise. He had

spent five years with the company, rising from the ranks to a place of honor at Toyne’s right hand. Had

he stayed, it might well have been him the men turned to after Myles died, instead of Harry Strickland.

But Griff did not regret the path he’d chosen. When I return to Westeros, it will not be as a skull atop a

pole.

“One broken contract is stain enough upon the honor of the company.” Homeless Harry

Strickland paused with his blistered foot in hand. “Let me remind you, it was Myles Toyne who put his

seal to this secret pact, not me. I would honor his agreement if I could, but how? It seems plain to me

that the Targaryen girl is never coming west. Westeros was her father’s kingdom. Meereen is hers. If she

can break the Yunkai’i, she’ll be Queen of Slaver’s Bay. If not, she’ll die long before we could hope to

reach her.”

For years afterward, Jon Connington told himself that he was not to blame, that he had done all

that any man could do. His soldiers searched every hole and hovel, he offered pardons and rewards, he

took hostages and hung them in crow cages and swore that they would have neither food nor drink until

Robert was delivered to him. All to no avail. “Tywin Lannister himself could have done no more,” he had

insisted one night to Blackheart, during his first year of exile.

“There is where you’re wrong,” Myles Toyne had replied. “Lord Tywin would not have bothered

with a search. He would have burned that town and every living creature in it. Men and boys, babes at

the breast, noble knights and holy septons, pigs and whores, rats and rebels, he would have burned

them all. When the fires guttered out and only ash and cinders remained, he would have sent his men in

to find the bones of Robert Baratheon. Later, when Stark and Tully turned up with their host, he would

have offered pardons to the both of them, and they would have accepted and turned for home with

their tails between their legs.”

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Um...I don't know? I didn't want to admit that I don't really remember much of what was said about Toyne other than I have an impression he was fierce. But for the sake of the discussion it made sense to think of him as a true Blackfyre loyalist.

There is nothing about Myles Toyne that we know of at the moment that suggests he was a Blackfyre loyalist. The passage quotes above suggests the opposite :)

Well I don't suppose that scenario, there are too many unknowns and speculations. But I will suppose a scenario where Maelys' sister's son ends up impoverished. Why does he not go to the Golden Company then? He would not have needed to ask them to win him the Iron Throne, just give him a home with them and a future as a wealthy sellsword - I believe that 30 or 40 years ago residual loyalty to the Blackfyre would have run that far. My basic problem with the idea of the Blackfyre line surviving is that I believe they would have remained supported by the GC, not hidden and unknown until Varys presented Aegon.

Exactly. Even if a sister of Maelys had a child (who then had a child)... if the GC was still loyal to Blackfyres after Maelys' death, why not take in his sister's child, impoverished as he is? Illyrio had barely any coin, and was a sellsword already. Why not join the GC?

[maidenandwarrior]

One thing no one has explained to my knowledge, at least about the Blackfyre theory and variants. What's the point of a Blackfyre restoration no one knows about? Let's be honest, at this point a Blackfyre probably doesn't need to be anything else. Westeros is a mess, just as Varys wanted. They could get Dorne still with the promise of revenge for Elia and her kids, and if "a dragon is still a dragon" even a Blackfyre - or Brightflame, or Brightfyre (my favorite) - is better than no dragon at all. Blue Aegon is already being met with skepticism, real or fake - I've seen a theory that Tyrell and Tarly are playing him down on purpose and I can't reference the other skeptic because I can't spoiler cut on my phone but those who read the Arianne TWoW sample know what I mean.

An heir of either or both exiled branches might not have the ease of gaining support that they assume Aegon will have, but who's to say he will if skepticism stays a pattern?

I just have trouble seeing the endgame. Eventual reveal? But then, why raise Aegon as Rhaegar's son? Why not raise him as the black dragon most believe he is and teach him to lie? A restoration that no one, not even the king candidate, is aware of? I feel bad for Blue Aegon if they mean to tell him later - identity crisis like whoa.

Is it all so Varys and Illyrio can pat themselves on the back and secretly be proud of themselves?

I think that the argument of the Blackfyre theory is mostly that the Blackfyres and the GC tried several times to win through open rebellion, and now are resorting to subterfuge. The Blackfyres believed, with evidence or not, that Daeron was a bastard, and that Daemon was Aegon IV's true heir--but this was never something that was accepted by everyone. And looking at the way the Targs were removed from the throne, they were not overthrown because of their illegitimacy of rule. On the contrary, Robert based his claim on a recent Targ descendant.

The stated intent of the GC was to get a son of Daemon's on the throne...over one hundred years later, I don't think they care if they have to lie to do it. Varys's riddle implies this. Power resides were men believe it resides. The people of Westeros would support the Baratheon's claim, and the claim of the Targs under the right circumstances (like one of Rhaegar's sons popping up and saving them from Ironborn or something). The Westerosi couldn't care less about the Blackfyres at this point. This is why Varys and Co are lying. They want a Blackfyre on the throne, they don't care how.

And no, I don't think they ever intend to reveal who Aegon really is. He would rule and die as a Targaryen, specifically Rhaegar's son.

[Leonardo]

But in this scenario, I do have a question: Why would the men of the GC care about the grandchild of Maelys' sister?

You put some thought into it, and that's nice, :) because most people who place Illyrio as a Blackyfyre, don't bother to make any possible connection at all (though, if you're going with Maelys' sister got pregnant in the 6 years between the War of the Ninepenny Kings and the fall of Alequo, I'd stick with Illyrio's the kid, since otherwise, Illyrio would currently only be 20 years old, and that seens to absolutely not be the case)

But then, would you make Aegon Illyrio's son?

I'm not sure about female lines going distant. Female lines don't seem to matter very much in Westeros, so they also wouldn't matter very much to Westerosi men in Essos, it seems to me.

Many huge houses, including the Lannisters, trace descent through a female line. Roberts claim came from his grandmother.

A claim is a claim.

[Fanless Mace]

If he IS the real Aegon, he'll die soon enough. If he lives past the next book, it means he's a fake and we should drown him. Those are basically the Salem witch trial rules, you know.

[Circle_breaker]

I just don't think The Golden Company would support a true targ.

[Fae Boleyn]

I just don't think The Golden Company would support a true targ.

Then why go along with the older plan involving Viserys and the Dothraki? Even if Varys and Illyrio never meant to do that, they sold the idea and the GC agreed. They also planned to wait for Daenerys, it's also unlikely they know Aegon is a Blackfyre if he is one.

There's some good impostor arguments but the GC not following a Targ isn't one. The principle has already been conceded by them even if they never moved out.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Many huge houses, including the Lannisters, trace descent through a female line. Roberts claim came from his grandmother.

A claim is a claim.

Robert won his throne through conquest. His "claim" through Rhaelle's blood was just pretext. It's stated in the text.

But even if he descends from Maelys' sister, assuming Maelys even had a sister... That would make Illyrio her son. An impoverished sellsword in Pentos... Why not join the GC if you're half a Blackfyre? Why would you keep wandering through Pentos, barely able to make a living?

[Leonardo]

Pretext is all you need on the game of thrones

And after Illyrio became a bad ass warrior and met Varys, the two began consolidating their power, so he wasn't just wandering. He may have signed up with the company, though its more likely him and Varys had their own company of sorts.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

But in this scenario, I do have a question: Why would the men of the GC care about the grandchild of Maelys' sister?

You put some thought into it, and that's nice, :) because most people who place Illyrio as a Blackyfyre, don't bother to make any possible connection at all (though, if you're going with Maelys' sister got pregnant in the 6 years between the War of the Ninepenny Kings and the fall of Alequo, I'd stick with Illyrio's the kid, since otherwise, Illyrio would currently only be 20 years old, and that seens to absolutely not be the case)

But then, would you make Aegon Illyrio's son?

I'm not sure about female lines going distant. Female lines don't seem to matter very much in Westeros, so they also wouldn't matter very much to Westerosi men in Essos, it seems to me.

Why would they care at all for the blackfyre claim, male or female line? these guys have fought at least 5 failed rebelions.. the Golden Company itself, at least 3...

true, the nephew scenario fits better..

yes, i believe in the theory of (f)Aegon Brightfyre.. And Illyrio is the "female" line that he himself implies still exists.. and Illyrio is the one holding the sword at the start of Dance of Dragons..

indeed female lines are indeed more messy when it comes claiming lands, or thrones for that matter... that is one of the reasons they could want to fake aegon in the first place..

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

And how serendipitous that he just happens to be around the same age as the true-born heir to the IT, who happened to die in such a manner that his body was unrecognizable.

This is really well thought-out, and there's room for it to happen, but as of ADWD, there's simply no textual evidence to support it.

There is nothing serendipitous about it. It was their intend to produce a blackfyre heir of the same age.. After aegon was killed and his body unrecognizable..

therefore the small age discrepancy. Between aegon and (f)aegon.

There is no textual evidence of what i just said (Maelys alequo, and the alleged sister).. There is some with regards to illyrio being a blackfyre.. But yes, we essentially have a time gap. Therefore linking Illyrio to Maelys is quite difficult.