since when is Aegon (F)Aegon?

[Chebyshov]

There is nothing serendipitous about it. It was their intend to produce a blackfyre heir of the same age.. After aegon was killed and his body unrecognizable..

therefore the small age discrepancy. Between aegon and (f)aegon.

There is no textual evidence of what i just said (Maelys alequo, and the alleged sister).. There is some with regards to illyrio being a blackfyre.. But yes, we essentially have a time gap. Therefore linking Illyrio to Maelys is quite difficult.

You're saying they conceived "(f)aegon" after seeing that Aegon was dead? Because then the boys would be 2 years apart, which you'd think would be enough of an age gap for JonCon to notice...

[Fae Boleyn]

There is nothing serendipitous about it. It was their intend to produce a blackfyre heir of the same age.. After aegon was killed and his body unrecognizable..

therefore the small age discrepancy. Between aegon and (f)aegon.

There is no textual evidence of what i just said (Maelys alequo, and the alleged sister).. There is some with regards to illyrio being a blackfyre.. But yes, we essentially have a time gap. Therefore linking Illyrio to Maelys is quite difficult.

The only proof we have of an age discrepancy is Tyrion, who's already messed up - remember when he thought Jon Snow was twelve?

Babies can't necessarily be produced on demand. If they could, Henry VIII would've only had one wife and no couples would ever have fertility problems. Even assuming the heir's parents (Illyrio and Serra or another couple) started trying as soon as they knew Elia was pregnant, there's a lot of luck in there - that both babies are boys, that Elia's boy doesn't take after her like Rhaenys, that baby Blackfyre is even conceived in a timely fashion and also looks properly Valyrian (Illyrio isn't noted as having the Valyrian look either). I mean, it's not impossible. But the intent you speak of does not remove the "they had really good luck" aspect.

Also, speaking of Tyrion, I find it odd that he, a suspicious sort, never thinks he may be an impostor. The line "he may be a true Targaryen after all" after Blue Aegon's little tantrum doesn't strike me that way. It sounds more like when someone says "oh you are your mother's/father's son after all" to someone who rarely acts much like the parent in question but has just displayed one of that parent's traits. It's a type of comment I'm rather familiar with. Plus, in his thoughts Tyrion is usually blunt enough that I'd think the word impostor would come up.

Of course, maybe he no longer cares but depressed or not he'd been super suspicious of the whole set-up till now, why not wonder about that?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Well I don't suppose that scenario, there are too many unknowns and speculations. But I will suppose a scenario where Maelys' sister's son ends up impoverished. Why does he not go to the Golden Company then? He would not have needed to ask them to win him the Iron Throne, just give him a home with them and a future as a wealthy sellsword - I believe that 30 or 40 years ago residual loyalty to the Blackfyre would have run that far. My basic problem with the idea of the Blackfyre line surviving is that I believe they would have remained supported by the GC, not hidden and unknown until Varys presented Aegon.

Sure. I don´t mean to convince anyone with the speculation. I´m just presenting a scenario that could work..

After 5 failed rebellions one would think its time for a strategy change.. going back to the GC and becoming a sellsword and using said company to advance a claim and invade westeros to overthrow the targaryens proved to be a failure over time..

Instead destroying the dynasty from inside and coming back with a pretender....

The key about the plan is keeping secrecy. The Golden Company has 10k men.. I woun´t even trust the officers if i were Illyrio..Having the last scion of house blackfyre becoming a sellsword would soon be known, even across the narrow sea.

Its better to keep his existence a secret... the hidden dagger is more dangerous wouldn´t you say?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

You're saying they conceived "(f)aegon" after seeing that Aegon was dead? Because then the boys would be 2 years apart, which you'd think would be enough of an age gap for JonCon to notice...

Tyrion does seem to notice the age discrepancy. he thinks aegon is 16 years old.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

The only proof we have of an age discrepancy is Tyrion, who's already messed up - remember when he thought Jon Snow was twelve?

Babies can't necessarily be produced on demand. If they could, Henry VIII would've only had one wife and no couples would ever have fertility problems. Even assuming the heir's parents (Illyrio and Serra or another couple) started trying as soon as they knew Elia was pregnant, there's a lot of luck in there - that both babies are boys, that Elia's boy doesn't take after her like Rhaenys, that baby Blackfyre is even conceived in a timely fashion and also looks properly Valyrian (Illyrio isn't noted as having the Valyrian look either). I mean, it's not impossible. But the intent you speak of does not remove the "they had really good luck" aspect.

Also, speaking of Tyrion, I find it odd that he, a suspicious sort, never thinks he may be an impostor. The line "he may be a true Targaryen after all" after Blue Aegon's little tantrum doesn't strike me that way. It sounds more like when someone says "oh you are your mother's/father's son after all" to someone who rarely acts much like the parent in question but has just displayed one of that parent's traits. It's a type of comment I'm rather familiar with. Plus, in his thoughts Tyrion is usually blunt enough that I'd think the word impostor would come up.

Of course, maybe he no longer cares but depressed or not he'd been super suspicious of the whole set-up till now, why not wonder about that?

yes indeed. the Jon age discrepancy is a good counter argument.. but then, its not about just tyrions opinion. When you couple the age discrepancy with other passages you have, IMO, nice foreshadowing.. The statue, the lysene pit fighter , Trystane in the PatQ..

about Valyrian looks, the (f)aegon brightfyre theory is more atractive since having dragon blood on both sides makes it more likely that Aegon would have Valyrian traits.

And Illyrio sounds exactly like Aegon IV, from the statue... but also by the rings and jewells..

[Fae Boleyn]

yes indeed. the Jon age discrepancy is a good counter argument.. but then, its not about just tyrions opinion. When you couple the age discrepancy with other passages you have, IMO, nice foreshadowing.. The statue, the lysene pit fighter , Trystane in the PatQ..

about Valyrian looks, the (f)aegon brightfyre theory is more atractive since having dragon blood on both sides makes it more likely that Aegon would have Valyrian traits.

And Illyrio sounds exactly like Aegon IV, from the statue... but also by the rings and jewells..

So he's lithe and attractive when young, really fat now he's older, and likes jewelry. Not what I meant; that can happen to anyone, no need for a blood tie. Is there any indication he looks at all Valyrian - that is, has Valyrian coloring? One of the big arguments against Lemore being Ashara, for example, is "Tyrion would have noticed her eyes". We get a few good descriptions of Illyrio; I recall no mention of any Valyrian look to him.

.

And if he doesn't, wife's looks aside, a baby who looks Valyrian as much as Aegon is lucky. Aegon looking Valyrian and not Dornish is lucky.

I was not countering every point in my post, I was simply countering the age discrepancy and the idea that it wasn't lucky they had a good impostor because they planned it that way. My goal was to show that there's still holes in the Blackfyre theory and not as much evidence as is believed, though there is some and I won't deny it. Not enough for the level of "well of course he's a fake" conviction on this site imo, but enough that it's definitely possible.

Though I will note, as I already have, that the Brightfyre theory you mentioned is my preferred impostor theory - it has fewer holes than Blackfyre Classic.

Or, you know, my crackpot idea that we're all right but I came up with that for fun.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Tyrion does seem to notice the age discrepancy. he thinks aegon is 16 years old.

Yes, Tyrion guesses Young Griff to be 16, instead of 18, but as you said, he also guesses Jon Snow to be 12, while Jon is 14 (close to turning 15 even), which suggests that Tyrion could be wrong about Young Griffs age as well.

Further suggesting that, is that Tyrion, after discovering the actual identity of Young Griff, doesn't think for a second "Wait a minute, this kid is 2 years too young to be Aegon. This kid wasn't even born when Rhaegar was killed. Something's up." That he doesn't say anything like this out loud is logical, but he doesn't even think it. He believes Aegon to be truly Aegon Targaryen. That should count for something.

[falcotron]

Many huge houses, including the Lannisters, trace descent through a female line. Roberts claim came from his grandmother.

A claim is a claim.

Robert won his throne through conquest. His "claim" through Rhaelle's blood was just pretext.

It seems pretty clear that the different peoples of Westeros have different succession traditions.* A claim that's valid under all relevant traditions is clearly stronger, but when there are no counter-claims that's irrelevant, and when there are, it rarely matters which one is a better claim.

And I think part of the point of TPatQ is to remind us how silly and meaningless complicated succession rules are in practice.** Once people have to start breaking out charts and arguing over the precedent for different traditions to decide who the next King is, it's going to come down to a gentleman's agreement, a Council, or a civil war.

At this point in history, even absolute proof of bastardry wouldn't convince anyone that the non-Blackyre Targaryen line (including the Baratheon line) is irrelevant, unless they were already a dyed-in-the-wool Blackfyre supporter. No one is going to say, "Well, OK, now I retroactively support the Blackfyres, but unfortunately your Blackfyre isn't the agnatic heir and therefore we'll have to find an even more distant relative."

---

* Equal primogeniture from the Rhoynar, cognatic from the Andals, agnatic from the Valyrians, and possibly a non-primogenitive closeness-of-kinship among the First Men.

** The DotD supposedly led to the Targs choosing agnatic primogeniture over cognatic. But that distinction was irrelevant to Rhaenyra vs. Aegon. Rhaenyra was no more the cognatic heir than she was the agnatic; she was heir because of her father's will. And meanwhile, the rule was broken immediately with Aegon III, the first King in Westerosi history who was the cognatic but not agnatic heir of his predecessor.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Yes, Tyrion guesses Young Griff to be 16, instead of 18, but as you said, he also guesses Jon Snow to be 12, while Jon is 14 (close to turning 15 even), which suggests that Tyrion could be wrong about Young Griffs age as well.

Further suggesting that, is that Tyrion, after discovering the actual identity of Young Griff, doesn't think for a second "Wait a minute, this kid is 2 years too young to be Aegon. This kid wasn't even born when Rhaegar was killed. Something's up." That he doesn't say anything like this out loud is logical, but he doesn't even think it. He believes Aegon to be truly Aegon Targaryen. That should count for something.

It's a story people want to believe. It would be a happy day for a lot of nostalgic people if they found out Aegon was still alive. Tyrion bought it easily, and IMO that is a foreshadow of how easily everyone else will accept it in Westeros. As said above the key here is secrecy. I am seriously starting to wonder how anyone will ever prove whether or not fAegon is in fact fake. That's what's so genius about Varys and ILlyrio's plans. Even if people doubt who he is, how could anyone ever prove it??

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

It's a story people want to believe. It would be a happy day for a lot of nostalgic people if they found out Aegon was still alive. Tyrion bought it easily, and IMO that is a foreshadow of how easily everyone else will accept it in Westeros. As said above the key here is secrecy. I am seriously starting to wonder how anyone will ever prove whether or not fAegon is in fact fake. That's what's so genius about Varys and ILlyrio's plans. Even if people doubt who he is, how could anyone ever prove it??

The only way to prove it is to get Varys and Illyrio to tell... Which isn't going to happen :p

I seriously consider that we might never find out, and that we'll be having these conversations 20 years from now as well..

As to the easy acceptance of Westeros..

Arianne already has doubts about Aegon's identity, Doran has doubts, Daemon Sand had doubts

so it's not going to be extremely easy for Aegon to convince them all he's the real deal. On the other hand, Kevan, who was at KL when it all happened, considers how Aegon might not have died..

Someone in an interview should ask GRRM is we're ever going to find out for sure.. Just to get our minds at ease.. :)

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Amidst the chaos and carnage brought on by their rivalry, other would-be kings would stake claims as well, strutting about like mummers on a stage for a fortnight or a moon’s turn, only to fall as swiftly as they had arisen.

During that long night, chaos held sway over half the city, whilst strange lords and kings of misrule squabbled o’er the rest. A hedge knight named Ser Perkin the Flea crowned his own squire Trystane, a stripling of sixteen years, declaring him to be a natural son of the late King Viserys. Any knight can make a knight, and when Ser Perkin began dubbing every sellsword, thief, and butcher’s boy who flocked to Trystane’s ragged banner, men and boys appeared by the hundreds to pledge themselves to his cause.

False kings,.. mummers.. Long Night (2.0?), a hedge knight (Griff is a knight, landless since Aerys stripped him of his lands)..squire.. sixteen years, bastard

dubbing every sellsword (and thiefs) that floks to his side... Didn´t Griff knighted Duck?

this is what i mean with coupling the age discrepancy with other passages...you can get nice moments of foreshadowing.

[falcotron]

So he's lithe and attractive when young, really fat now he's older, and likes jewelry. Not what I meant; that can happen to anyone, no need for a blood tie. Is there any indication he looks at all Valyrian - that is, has Valyrian coloring? One of the big arguments against Lemore being Ashara, for example, is "Tyrion would have noticed her eyes". We get a few good descriptions of Illyrio; I recall no mention of any Valyrian look to him.

Yeah, Dany I in AGoT, the very same chapter that establishes Dany's and Viserys's hair and eye color, and the importance of them, also establishes that Illyrio has yellow hair rather than silver-blond, and describes his eyes without mentioning their color. Much later, Tyrion's chapter again describes his hair as yellow, and again describes his eyes without mentioning their color.

Of course those who really want to believe in the Brightfyre theory can always argue that a Targ-descendant who doesn't have Valyrian looks and wants to breed a claimant to the throne has even more reason to marry a relative than one with Valyrian looks would, to bring out the recessive genes

[cade]

A lot of the "proof" that he's fake is shaky - mummer's dragon can just as easily mean Varys' dragon (the mummer) which Blue Aegon is regardless.

True, but the mummer's dragon is one of the lies the Undying prophesied Dany will slay. To this, some Aegon believers claim that Dany is a fake Targaryen and will slay her own lie, which is the ultimate crackpot to me. I have no doubt that the undying were referring to fAegon.

[Osha13]

True, but the mummer's dragon is one of the lies the Undying prophesied Dany will slay. To this, some Aegon believers claim that Dany is a fake Targaryen and will slay her own lie, which is the ultimate crackpot to me. I have no doubt that the undying were referring to fAegon.

Couldn't the Mummer's Dragon have been Viserys? He always told Dany not to wake the dragon, but really he was no dragon at all. The undying prophecies were past and present.

[cade]

Couldn't the Mummer's Dragon have been Viserys? He always told Dany not to wake the dragon, but really he was no dragon at all. The undying prophecies were past and present.

"A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd." No crowd ever cheered Viserys. Dany referred to what she saw as a mummer's dragon, and Quaithe later warned of a mummer's dragon, which I think is clearly fAegon.

[Dorian Martell]

Couldn't the Mummer's Dragon have been Viserys? He always told Dany not to wake the dragon, but really he was no dragon at all. The undying prophecies were past and present.

That's good stuff. I always thought it could be Aegon as varys was a mummer and the cloth dragon was the targ standard being raised over storms end

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Couldn't the Mummer's Dragon have been Viserys? He always told Dany not to wake the dragon, but really he was no dragon at all. The undying prophecies were past and present.

That would be interesting but Viserys was a dragon.

[Chebyshov]

Couldn't the Mummer's Dragon have been Viserys? He always told Dany not to wake the dragon, but really he was no dragon at all. The undying prophecies were past and present.

Very interesting, because she thinks of him as "no true dragon."

If Aegon is real, I kind of like the idea that Quentyn "the dragontamer" is the mummer's dragon and Aegon is the Sun's Son.

[Osha13]

That would be interesting but Viserys was a dragon.

I always looked at it like he wasn't a dragon, because Dany thinks that herself. She says something along the lines of "he was no true dragon", or she at least thinks that to herself.

[Lord Damian]

There is so much overshadowing that Aegon is fake and probably Blackfyre it makes me scream. Rheagar's kids by Elia are dead, dead, dead. This kid is a fake from the getgo.