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A political match between Jon and Dany, focussing on Essosi expansion. Long with summary.


Veltigar

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First perhaps a little background about how this thread came to be.
I have recently been active in several threads concerning the character of Daenerys Targaryen and several about Jon Snow’s future relationships (including the possibility of a Jon+Dany match).

Nothing really new to be found in those threads, just the same old bullshit about types and stuff.
Before I go one I’d like to stress that I’d rather not have this thread going down that downtrodden path again (there are other threads to do that), since I do feel that most posters have made up their mind by now and unless we get some new material in our hands there is not much chance at converting someone from the other side to our own team and vice versa.

One interesting idea did however arise from those threads and that’s the idea of a political marriage (loveless or otherwise) between Jon and Dany. Some posters (mostly the same who bring up the bullshit about types) did not see the merit in that idea and claim that Jon would stand to gain nothing from a marriage with Dany (since R+L=J and all).

That is of course untrue for a plethora of reasons (included but not limited to the symbolic/literal acquisition of dragons, the avoidance of a possible split line of Targaryen succession, to attain the loyalty of the former slaves, to get access to Daenerys considerable fortune, uniting north and south, etc.). This thread can be used to discuss all of those reasons (and others, both pro and contra a political marriage between Jon and Dany), but there is one specific reason I’d like to focus on here.

This reason is the possibility of expansion of the Seven Kingdoms on the Essosi mainland. Oddly, enough I have not yet seen much posts on that topic (as opposed to those endless “I totz wants to split up the seven kingdoms, cause you know they are like bad”-posts).

This is strange because given what we know of the story and given the predictions of a substantial part of forum users (It’s a polarizing subject so if you do not recognize yourself in the following group of forum users you will not like my conclusions) it’s not unlikely that Dany will be landing in Westeros with some bases of support back in Essos, places she liberated from slavery and added to her own growing empire.

[EDIT: for a more detailed report on how Dany would take these Essosi possesion see post 12-17]

Those Essosi bases would be quite the prize for any man (or woman) claiming the throne of the Seven Kingdoms, since the various parts of Essos Daenerys might end up controlling are substantially richer than Westeros because of their trading culture.

Furthermore these places are not hindered as much by the long Westerosi winters, so they could provide a stable supply line of food for the Westerosi natives.
On top of that, those places would be ideal bridgeheads for further conquests in Essos and the merchant class of those Essosi territories could prove to be very useful against the traditional Westerosi players, namely the noble houses (as in real history in places like Flanders and Holland were the Count worked together with the cities to limit the power of the nobility).

Now, which places in Essos could Daenerys take? First of all there is perhaps the greatest prize of all the free cities (behind Braavos) in the form of Old Volantis. The city is old, has a storied past (tied to Old Valyria), is surrounded by fertile lands, has a humongous fleet, is incredibly wealthy and influential.

Volantis seems to be almost a given since Volantis is filled to the brim with slaves (slaves who are almost all ardent followers of the Red God and are controlled by a high priests who announces Dany as the new AA), is controlled by a nobility who actively went against Daenerys and is right on her way to Westeros. I’ll think their fleet will turn cloaks and join her, she’ll take the city and free the slaves and use the city as a base to launch her attack on Westeros from.

Dany will probably also become the overlord of the Dothraki (finally fulfilling that vision of those old crones bowing to her) and become the Stallion that Mounts the World. Even if she doesn’t get that title it seems more than likely that she’ll add at least one very potent Khalesar to her own. Which could be useful later on in attacks on other Essosi targets.

Another place which seems to have quite a high chance of an attack by Daenerys is Pentos. Several characters close to her have already reached an agreement with a certain Tattered Prince to lend him a hand with retaking Pentos. She’ll also be curious as to Illyrio’s role in the whole Faegon plot and thanks to Tyrion she’ll know that slavery still exists in Pentos which gives her a perfect excuse to launch an attack on it without pissing off Braavos to much (that is if the new Sealord of Braavos by then isn’t an ardent anti-Targaryen).
For that attack she could use the Dothraki she picked up in the Dothraki Sea and Vaes Dothrak and go overland, perhaps collecting other Khalesars on their way, to force Pentos into submission.

There are also those cities in the greater Slaversbay area that supported Yunkai in their battle against her forces. I’m pretty sure that in those places it would be less about conquering (as in actually occupying the country and adding it to your own possessions) and more about accumulating wealth, supplies and the freeing of slaves. I only count them to as Essosi possessions because of the vast amount of wealth that might be taken from those depraved slaver cities.

[EDIT: I thought it was quite clear that I meant that the cities in the slaversbay area would be sacked and not occupied. Her army would only pilage those places and then set them a blaze with no real intention of occupying them. In Slaversbay it's about building a reputation, accumulating wealth and finishing a job (destroy the slave trade in that area). The only Slaversbay city that might be spared is New Ghis. All the others would become ruins like the ones in the red waste]

The fall of Yunkai is almost a given, since it’s armies and fleet are out being crushed by Big Vic and his Ironborn and the city is right on the way of Dany’s fleet to Volantis. Dany will not make the mistake of leaving that city behind unharmed again. She’ll sack it, liberate the remaining slaves and put the city to the torch.

I think Meereen will share this faith, since stripped of its wealth and her population of former slaves and common born Meerenese, the city is of not much worth to either of her causes (taking the IT and liberating slaves).

In fact leaving the city behind in relative good health might result in the survival of the slavers culture. So, I think she’ll pull a Nymeria on that city and also put it to the torch to show her followers that there is no way back.

The remaining members of the anti-liberation front were Elyria, Tolos, Mantarys and New Ghis (and Qarth but that lies so far off that I think that they are safe).

New Ghis is an island and lies on Dany’s way to Volantis. It seems to resemble ancient Sparta quite closely, which means a ton of slaves for every free citizen (which lead to a very martial and paranoid culture among the freeborn citizens of New Ghis). If Dany’s side wins the battle for Meereen than New Ghis will have suffered quite badly (losing a total number of 4 legions IIRC) and it will be ripe for the taking. Any supplies that can be pillaged, every ship taken and every slave freed is a boon for Dany’s cause.

Mantarys and Tolos are both out of the way of Dany’s fleet but a land army (like a humongous Khalesar) passing via the demon road would go right passed Tolos and straight through Mantarys on their way to Volantis. And seeing that Tolos has been heavily affected by the bloody flux these cities could fall rather easy and be a great way as to blood her new Khalesar and have them prove their loyalty.

Elyria is the odd one out here since it is located on an island. However given the logistics of such a grand operation a sacking of Elyria is not really unfeasible. It would make sense for at least a part of Dany’s ships to travel parallel with her land army while traveling the first part of the Demon Road (up until they get too close to the seas surrounding Old Valyria), in order to supply the land army with everything they needed (like for instance was done in the crusades). Those ships could then leave her land army behind and sack Elyria on their way to the main force.

Some of you might question the hypothesis of Dany adding certain parts of Essos to her own realm after liberating them from slavery. To those people I say that Dany will know better by then. She already let two cities (Astapor and Yunkai) slip from underneath her gaze and they both betrayed and turned on her (in different ways). I do not think she’ll make that mistake twice and I think this time she’ll claim them as part of her realm from the get go.


Summary: If Dany succeeds in beating the Yunkai’I alliance, turning the Volantine fleet and acquiring the might of a Khalesar (or more than one) she can use those victories to build an Essosi empire (consisting of the territories of Volantis and perhaps Pentos, with the accumulated wealth of all the sacked pro-Yunkai cities in the slaversbay area). Those Essosi possessions (and the incredible wealth they contain) alone would make Daenerys a very interesting candidate for a marriage match to Jon Snow or indeed any other claimant for the IT.

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Nice post.

I like the idea of Dany building an Essosi empire.

I think thats the whole point of her arc to go to westeros and find out that her true home is Essos, afterall that where Valyrians came from.

About a political alliance with who takes the IT?

I am not sure, but it may be good for a war torn westeros to ally with a rich area for rebuilding.

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If Jon survives, he's a member of the Night's Watch

If Jon dies, he's likely unable to have children

If the Night's Watch were to be destroyed + Jon lives, Jon would have quite a lot of more pressing concerns

If Jon were to rally the forces available in the North, that's not enough to conquer the Iron Throne

Empress Daennerys of New Valyria would certainly be very desirable marriage material (and FM target practice, as far as the Braavosi are concerned), but I don't see Jon in a position to marry her.

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Very interesting, I like your post.

Do you think the idea will still work if she is only able to conquer a few of these places because she does need to make it to Westeros sooner rather than later.

She can always leave commanders in Essos I suppose and continue to build the empire after the war...

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This seems to be suggesting that Dany will continue on her quest to free slaves. I doubt that's going to happen. I think she's moved on.

More importantly, it's not enough to sack cities and free slaves. She needs to give the slaves the chance to survive, to work, to eat, to live. She needs to build a viable economy for them.

What's an Essosi empire worth if it's nothing but burnt cities and freed slaves? They have enough problems in Westeros without having to content with a neighbouring Essos that has been dismantled.

So to conclude, I don't think that Dany can sack and plunder her way across Essos and leave behind anything of worth. It could provide her with the resources to invade Westeros but she would leave behind a ruin that no one in Westeros would want the burden of ruling.

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I think if Tyrion can be trusted, he would be a boon of intellect to help reconstruct a post slave economy in Essos. Perhaps he could serve as a governor of sorts in her absence. He has studied the culture and had always wanted to see these places and has leadership experience. It would depend very much on if Dany can get beyond identifying him as a "usurpers' dog" or not and if he's left with enough strength to support him. She has attempted a committee of sorts for this with Astapor that failed so she would need to leave the right people in charge for it to work.

I also think Volantis is set to revolt for her. Those walls where the "elite" live and no one can see must fall. I really want to know what goes on back there! The Widow of the Waterfront seems to wield a bit of power for someone shunned by the aristocracy. She, also, can prove most helpful to Dany in this I hope.

As for Bravvos, they've been anti-slave from their origins! They set a fine example of HOW to restructure the other cities. Personally, I've thought they'd be happy with Dany's anti-slavery quest rather than out to get her just because she has dragons(some seem to strongly think the latter).

Pentos is going down, if the Tattered Prince has anything to say about it! Will Dany see how similar she & he are? Both are out to claim what's theirs.....or is it more vengeful?

Great thread OP! My thanks to you! And to everyone : we don't know anything, til George writes it! ;)

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I am going to leave the question of a marriage to someone in Westeros aside, since I really think that should not be the point of this thread.

I have always very much liked the idea of Dany giving up on the Iron Throne and Westeros. It is a country she never had any connection to. She really knows nothing about it, and the only reason she even wants it is that vague feeling of "but my father used to rule that!". This is Viserys talking, the influence he still has on her. Dany has no reason to go down that path.

But in Slaver's Bay, this is something she has built for herself. There were a lot of setbacks, and some very flawed strategic choices (Astapor and Yunkai), but all in all she was very successfully, building up from three baby dragons and a few Dothraki all the way to huge armies of loyal followers and causing the greatest political upheavel in Essos since the Doom. So she should just bloody stay there and rule it, and not run off to some other continent just to force herself into daddy's footsteps.

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Sorry that I haven’t responded properly. I had quite a hectic week and I really did not have time to construct a good response to some of the things that were brought up in this thread.

Winds of Winter blow cold, on 23 Sept 2013 - 08:36 AM, said:

Essos & Westeros are separated by an ocean. Any attempt to rule both would be unsustainable. But your other points about a political match are good.

END QUOTE.

From the top of my head, empires that were divided by a sea/ocean:

1) England-Aquitaine (from 1154 – 1453)
2) Every colonial empire in recent history (think the Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Belgian, German, Italian, French and British empires).
3) The Roman empire formed around the Mediterranean Sea (technically the Romans could take the incredibly long journey over land but that wouldn’t be practical) and later the Ottoman Empire.
4) the Kalmar Union
5) Kingdom Denmark-Norway
6) Japanese empire before WWII

There are more of course but these were the ones I thought of immediately).

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Well, while Dany carves out an Essosi empire the others will have turned Westeros into their own winter wonderland. It sounds nice but it would've taken to long in the grand scheme of things.

1) So you know when the Others are planning their invasion?

2) If GRRM writes the story realistically (which he so far has tried) than Dany has plenty of time to follow the scenario I have laid out. Allow me to go into further detail (this will be a very long read post 12-17)

At the end of the second battle for Meereen (Meereen vs. Volantine Navy. Concluded by Dany and her Khalesar coming to the aid of the Dany loyalists) Dany will possess a very large group of followers.

If I’m conservative in my estimates than she’ll have a following consisting of the Iron Fleet, one Khalesar (but perhaps more depending on what is available at Vaes Dothrak), Unsullied, mercenaries (The Second Sons and the Windblown at the very least but perhaps more), the Volantine fleet and thousands upon thousands of Freedmen (Those she freed from Astapor, Yunkai and Meereen + the Meerenese Smallfolk) and three dragons.

There is no way in hell that Dany has enough ships left to transport all those people and at the same time keep those people properly fed and equipped. Not even in the best case scenario (i.e. lots of dead people and no losses what so ever when it comes to ships, which seems rather unlikely).

Thus Dany will have to send at least part of her army across land to Volantis if she wants to move her army there. The Khalesar and her other mounted units will therefore take the Demon Road and travel by that route.

Now an army that travels over land (even in the unlikely scenario that it are only Dothraki) is much slower than an army going over the sea. And that land army will have to be fed, something that will be quite hard to do while traveling on the Demon Road, which does not seem promising when it comes down to foraging for such a large group of people.

Luckily for that land army there are two rich slaver cities on their way to Volantis. The first is Tolos and the second Mantarys. We know that Tolos has suffered badly from the bloody flux and that a (presumably large) part of the Tolosi army has been killed by Daenerys loyalists during the first battle of Meereen.

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That means that it will be very easy to take Tolos. Once taken the cities granaries, armories and treasuries can be added to those of Daenerys’ host. The remaining slaves can be freed and if there are any ships left in the arbor they can be commandeered as well.



And with Mantarys it is simply a case of necessity. The city lies right on the Demon Road so if they want to travel to Volantis they’ll have to sort that city out as well. It’s also worth noting that they killed Dany’s envoy. She will not have forgotten that. And again everything they take from Mantarys (coin, weapons, clothes, food, horses, freed slaves, …) helps to strengthen Daenerys cause.



The only member of the pro-Yunkai coalition left in the Western part of Slaversbay is now Elyria. The problem with Elyria is that it’s located on an island, so Dany’s land army does not have opportunities to pillage that. But there is a way if GRRM intends to go with realism.



Dany’s land army can resupply in Tolos and Mantarys before setting out to the last part of their voyage to Volantis but first they need to get to Tolos. Between Meereen and Tolos/Mantarys there is only a ruined city, the coast and a lot of mountains. Given the Demon Roads fearsome reputation it’s pretty unlikely that there is mass agriculture in its vicinity (so no chance of stealing the food) and since the region surrounding the road is quite mountainous there is probably not much chance at scoring enough game to feed everybody.



I rather doubt that there are enough wagons/package horses/mules/oxen available to transport everything her land army needs. And even if there was enough of those things it would tremendously slow down her army.



However the Demon Roads runs along the coast, which offers the possibility of being supplied of off ships. There is even historical precedence for this. The Crusaders where supplied from their ships while fighting their way further inland.



A small fleet could supply her land fleet from Meereen to Tolos. When Dany’s mounted forces attack Tolos from the Demon Road, these ships could lay a barrier to block the way for any Tolosians trying to escape the city with boats. After the fall of Tolos, these ships could pick up what is left of the Tolosi slave population, load them on board of the ships captured in Tolos and then proceed to attack Elyria.


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The fleet would sack Elyria, take its wealth, its food and its freed men and then head to a rendezvous point to hook up with the rest of Dany’s fleet. I think that given its location, New Ghis is the most logical place to meet up with the main body of the fleet.



Now I have talked about Dany’s land army (and a small part of her fleet). That leaves the main body of Dany’s fleet for discussion. Since this part of her army will transport not only warriors but also her civilian followers, they’ll take their time to properly prepare.



The day Dany’s land army sets out for Volantis, Dany will pull a Nymeria on Meereen. In other words she’ll totally burn the city and what it represents down, together with the bodies of the fallen. Thus she shows her people that there is no way back (+ a dragon plants no trees and all that) and at the same time she seriously limits the possibility of some sort of grand re-opening of Meereen after she leaves town.



She’ll set out for Yunkai and take that city, now void of defenders, easily. She’ll free the remainder of the slaves, sack it completely (again taking coin, food, ships, weapons, clothes, etc.) and then give it the same treatment as she gave to Meereen (i.e. bonfire royal/dragon special).



After that she’ll head to New Ghis. New Ghis is a very interesting place to take a stop. The city is dependent on its agricultural produces, so it is a great place to stop and resupply for the final haul to Volantis. It’s also located on a major trade route, so the chances of acquiring more ships (and loot from those ships) through piracy is almost 100%. Taking the islands and resupplying there would also be a great way to do some damage to Qarth (which sadly is out of reach now), since she would basically sever Qarth from its western trade with Slaversbay and the Free Cities.



New Ghis also has a very big slave population (New Ghis looks a lot like ancient Sparta) and is probably the strongest Slaversbay city from a military point of view. Sadly, for the people of New Ghis Daenerys loyalists have taken care of at least four legions already so they don’t actually stand a chance against her. It’s quite likely that Dany arrives on the Islands and finds that the slave population has already risen against its oppressors.


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Another interesting possibility lies in its proximity to the Basilisk Isles. When Dany arrives the Island might already be taken by others. I’m thinking specifically of Victarion’s missing ships (which might have turned up there badly damaged by the storms and they could have taken advantage of the absence of the 4 legions to take the city) or perhaps even the mysterious Corsair King (who, if he has any relevance to the story whatsoever will probably turn out to be Gerion Lannister). Both those possibilities would be very interesting since they could really strengthen Daenerys cause.

I think that New Ghis would be the first city that could possibly survive past the visit of Dany and her armies. Meereen, Yunkai, Astapor, Elyria, Tolos and Mantarys will all join the ranks of ruined cities surrounding the Bay. New Ghis on the other hand could very well be spared and lifted to great prominence.

In stark contrast with the other Slaver cities New Ghis is economically sustainable without slavery (since they mostly live of the income they get by selling their agricultural produce). The island would also be a great place to train new (non-eunuch) Unsullied, since the city has the knowhow to make the Unsullied equipment and to train people to fight in the particular way of the Unsullied (although they can never achieve the same strength as Astapori Unsullied of course)

And the location of the city gives it other boons as well. As mentioned in the previous paragraph the city could become a gigantic pain in the ass of Qarth (I rather welcome that thought). Another boon it gets from her location is the fact that a strong base of Daenerys loyalists at that location would make any return of the slave trade to Slaversbay impossible since from the island they can control the mouth of Slaversbay and easily strike at the shores of the Bay.

Dany and her army would wait there for some days until her smaller fleet joins up with them. From New Ghis she would travel to Old Volantis.

Before they actually come insight of the city she would best send her Volantinians out, under the command of Moqorro and Ser Jorah to infiltrate the city first.

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By that time her land army would have arrived and lured the remaining part of the Volantinian army out of the city and on a wild goose chase (a bit like Tyrions plan in ADWD).



Her Volantinians would embark in the harbor and let Ser Jorah and Moqorro out. Moqorro would give word to Benerro and Ser Jorah to the widow. They would then instigate a full scale rebellion amongst the slave population. The Old Blood would probably try to squash the rebellion by ordering its marines to subjugate it. The Volantinians would come ashore of course but they would only do that to protect key positions (the harbor, armories, granaries, etc.) and to make sure that no ships leave the harbor.




When the uprising has run its course Dany would only have to dock her ships and claim the spoils. What remains of the Volantinian army would surrender, since it would be trapped between Dany’s land army and the city that she controls.



I think that Daenerys would stay in Volantis for quite some time (a month or so). If GRRM sets up her campaign realistically than she’ll need that time to deal with the many problems that she’ll face.



First of course she needs to set up some sort of government for the Volantinians, which would govern the city in her name while she’s off to Westeros.



After that she needs to decide where to invade Westeros and which strategy and tactics she’ll adopt there (e.g. which lords to bribe, how she’ll present herself). After such a long journey she’ll also need to get her ships checked and repaired (there’s bound to be some damage). And the rest of her people would certainly need to rest for a week or two before they can continue again.



She’ll need to think about how to set up a reliable supply chain between Volantis and her landing place in Westeros. She’ll have to resupply and re-equip both her ships and her people. For instance almost her entire army will need better clothing to be able to withstand a Westerosi winter. She’ll also have to dispense the weapons and armor her armies have looted from the Slaver cities to her new (and old) recruits. And there are many other issues to sort out.


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Right at that time Dany will also get more info on Faegon and on the Illyrio/Varys connection. She’ll be curious after Tyrions report and the news brought to her by Maester Marwyn (who’ll meet up with her at Volantis) and ask the Tattered Prince about more info on Illyrio and his city.



Personally, I think that the Prince has a beef with Illyrio. We all know that Illyrio’s first wife was the daughter of a cousin off a Prince of Pentos. I think that she was either kin to the Tattered Prince or otherwise the girl he himself wanted to marry in his youth. She was most likely murdered to make room for Serra so I think the Tattered Prince is not a big fan of Illyrio. He’ll inform Dany of his network in the city (the old nobility will be eager to support Dany to get rid of the merchants who rule their city) and remind her of his deal with Ser Barristan.



I think that Dany will send him out with a Khalesar to take Pentos (with the excuse that they still keep slaves) when she has only been in Volantis for a few days. She’ll stay behind and attend the meetings and plan for the Westerosi invasion. After some time has passed and the most pressing concerns have been dealt with she’ll just hop on Drogon and fly with dragon speed to Pentos. The city will have fallen and she’ll probably be able to get confirmation that Faegon is indeed a fake. She’ll appoint the Tattered Prince as her governor in Pentos and then leave for Volantis.



While she’s away Victarion will finally realize that she’ll never marry him and whip out the dragon horn. He’ll be killed by the Dusky Woman (who’s a FM) and something will happen to either Viserion or Rhaegal.



Daenerys might also link up with Arya in Volantis. When the second most powerful Free City gets a new owner the others will surely send envoys to meet her. I think that Arya’s storyline in tWoW will revolve heavily around Braavosi politics and whoever gets to be the new Sealord. I think Syrio’s old faction (supported by the Iron Bank most likely) will win that fight against the opposing faction (supported by the FM). They’ll be pro-Targaryen and send envoys to deal with Dany and perhaps Arya could be one of those envoys (after betraying the FM).



When Dany gets back she’ll order everyone to prepare and then they’ll head out and land in the Vale.


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I think I have mentioned in a couple of posts that getting hold of a wealth or food producing colony in Essos, or at least systematic trade links, is what Westeros needs to survive this and other winters, and that Dany is the person who has one, although her grip is shaky and her slave freeing policy has undermined the economic base.



I don't know why more houses aren't making links to Essos individually. Westeros seems very isolated from the economic activity of Essos. You read of houses who just mined a metal till it ran out, and then were poor. You'd think they could have bought ships and diversified into trade somewhere along the way. I can see it may be quite hard as those Essosi guilds and the government of the cities must function to keep valuable trades like the spice trade in certain hands, but still, you could possibly make an alliance with a spice trading family. Paxter Redwyne trades and builds ships because he has the wine to trade. Those with gold silver or copper could finance a struggling trader or take up trade themselves where they could find an opening.



Your post is very interesting for looking at how Dany can do this. She would actually only have to do some of what you outline to be a might force.


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Three additional things worth noting which I forgot:



1) Not only does Dany built an Essosi empire by taking Volantis and the cities around slaversbay and all but she also generates a vast amount of wealth. Those slaver cities have been feeding of human misery for centuries and they have grown incredibly rich from it. If Dany takes that wealth she’ll have access to a very big war fund. This fund can be used to bribe nobles, to pay for more mercenaries, to eradicate the debt of the IT with the Iron Bank and to build a lot of new infrastructure around the realm.



2) Dany might be the mother of dragons but it’s also worth noting that she’s still a woman. In the eyes of the more traditional parts of the Westerosi nobility that makes her weaker/less suited for the throne. By avenging herself on all her enemies (except for Qarth which would only suffer from the New Ghis trade block) and laying waste to Slaversbay she shows that she’s no woman to be trifled with.



3) This scenario would really drive home the Aegon I/Daenerys comparisons. She set out from Dragonstone (the island in the Dothraki Sea), she fought against Volantis and then she would land in the Vale (Aegons first engagement in his campaign to take Westeros was against the Arryn fleet).


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