[Spoilers] The Princess and the Queen, complete spoilers discussion

[Grievous]

I think it is fairly certain that Laena was indeed the elder of the two siblings.

First of all, why was she considered? Being the eldest explains that. Second, his marriage to Daemon makes A LOT of sense in the aftermath of 101 if she was the eldest. If something would happen to Viserys, Daemon would be next in line and anyone wanting to raise the old claims of Rhaenys' line would be hard pressed to do so, with the marriage having united the lines. I think the Daemon-Laena marriage is a very clever move in this setup.

At the same time, I wonder about Daemon. By any reading, it seems he and Laena got kids quite late and in Pentos of all places. Sure, Daemon was fighting against the Triarchy at some point so that might be the reason they were there. However, he also had a major quarrel with Ser Otto Hightower. How does that rivalry fit in, if it does? Did this happen when he was serving as the commander of the Goldcloaks? Did he leave to Pentos because of this? Unfortunately, there isn't much information to go by.

[The hairy bear]

The contention I made earlier in this thread is that Jaeharys' age might have been a factor as well, ie. that in 92 he was active and secure in his power so that he could simply make a ruling and the realm as well as the members of the family would obey.

I agree. In 92, the Old King may have felt that he had time ahead to consolidate Balon as heir. But in 101 he knew that he would die soon and that the heir would need the support of the realm.

Rhaenys had no doubt gathered a following by 101, though outmatched 20-to-1 it is according to the historian.

The 20-to-1 result must be an exageration. We know that the North, the Narrow Sea and Storm's End were for Rhaenyra. That would account for approximately 25% of the realm at the time, wouldn't it?

[Anath]

At the same time, I wonder about Daemon. By any reading, it seems he and Laena got kids quite late and in Pentos of all places. Sure, Daemon was fighting against the Triarchy at some point so that might be the reason they were there. However, he also had a major quarrel with Ser Otto Hightower. How does that rivalry fit in, if it does? Did this happen when he was serving as the commander of the Goldcloaks? Did he leave to Pentos because of this? Unfortunately, there isn't much information to go by.

If Laena and Laenor were close in age and they were Rhaenys' children, it would not be late at all, for Laena, at least. That would make a 42 year gap between Rhaenys and her granddaughters. Quite normal, I'd say. As to Daemon - he had no choice but wait for his betrothed to grow up enough to comsummate the marriage. I seem to remember that Philip II of France tried to have his teen wife (not yet 15 or 13, I can't remember) repudiated on the grounds of her being barren *shudder*. I hope Daemon and Laena just waited for her to grow up, instead of actively trying to have children with her in her early teens.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I think it is fairly certain that Laena was indeed the elder of the two siblings.

First of all, why was she considered? Being the eldest explains that. Second, his marriage to Daemon makes A LOT of sense in the aftermath of 101 if she was the eldest. If something would happen to Viserys, Daemon would be next in line and anyone wanting to raise the old claims of Rhaenys' line would be hard pressed to do so, with the marriage having united the lines. I think the Daemon-Laena marriage is a very clever move in this setup.

At the same time, I wonder about Daemon. By any reading, it seems he and Laena got kids quite late and in Pentos of all places. Sure, Daemon was fighting against the Triarchy at some point so that might be the reason they were there. However, he also had a major quarrel with Ser Otto Hightower. How does that rivalry fit in, if it does? Did this happen when he was serving as the commander of the Goldcloaks? Did he leave to Pentos because of this? Unfortunately, there isn't much information to go by.

I agree that for Laena to have a reason to be considered, she must have been the elder of the two children.

But should something happen to Viserys, Rhaenyra would have been his heir. Sure, Rhaenyra was only three at that point, but, depending on when Viserys' two sons died, they might still have been around as well.

Daemon apparently travelled a lot, and he had friends in Pentos. Whether he was there simply visiting or on business, I don't know, but I don't believe he was fighting there. Why would he have taken his wife with him if he had been fighting a war in Pentos? And why involve Pentos in a war against the Triarchy in the first place? And perhaps more importantly, why bring a pregnant wife?

Daemon was once the Lord Commander of the Gold Cloaks - why did he seize to be?

He seemed to have been known in the "underworld" of KL as well, which might have clashed with Ser Otto, the Hand of the King during Viserys' entire reign, and part of Jaehaerys' reign.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

I like the idea that Nettles could be a CotF. I'm kind of skeptical simply because she was crying when she left Daemon and it struck me as innocent and childlike. If she were a CotF i would think she would have been the driving force behind Daemon's decision to go to Harrenhal and would have bigger picture perspective as opposed to a sentimental and childish outlook. This in no-way refutes the theory, it's just the impression i got when reading their farewell.

RumHam, on 09 Dec 2013 - 08:35 AM, said:

So do a lot of people. Lots of people in Martins world are not white, that doesn't mean they're somehow not human.

We don't really know this for sure (though I don't think she does.) Ulf and Hugh also aren't said to have any Valyrian blood.

She...feeds him. I guess you could call that blood sacrifice. If she were a child of the forest you'd think she'd have some sorta magical way of bonding with him. You shouldn't have to be a CoTF to figure out that feeding the animal will endear him to you. [1]

Are you sure you're not confusing Daemon and Bloodraven? Daemon was not linked to the Old Gods in any way.* Dude cut marks in a heart tree to mark the passage of time. He wasn't going around carving faces in weirwoods. Also from what Ran has said Daemon gave his "attention" to a lot of women.

*unless he survived and ended up with the Green Men, but that would be after he parted company with Nettles. [2]

Edit:

Yeah, I do. Just because Jenny claimed she was a child of the forest doesn't make it so. There are other people with the power of prophecies, and even human greenseers like Jojen.

1. The description of Nettles initial bonding w/ Sheapstealer which wasn't witnessed and lacks specific details attributes the bonding to cunning and persistence (i.e. a rational explanation):

"In the end, the brown dragon was brought to heel by the cunning and persistence of a "small brown girl"of six and ten, named Netty, who delivered him a freshly slaughtered sheep every morning, until Sheepstealer learned to accept and expect her. She was black-haired, brown-eyed, brown-skinned, skinny, foul-mouthed, filthy, and fearless...and the first and last rider of the dragon Sheepstealer."

However the description of Nettles feeding Sheapstealer at Maidenpool is far more detailed/specific and sounds a lot like a blood sacrifice:

"It was her custom to feed him each day before she flew; dragons bend easier to their rider's will when full. That morning she fed him a black ram, the largest in all Maidenpool, slitting the ram's throat herself. Her riding leathers were stained with blood when she mounted her dragon, Maester Norren records, and "her cheeks were stained with tears."

Nettles custom of selecting choice offerings, slitting their throats and staining herself in their blood before riding is unique to her and her alone out of all the dragonseeds, and appears to be the only ritualistic form of bonding between dragon and rider.

If it was so obvious that feeding a dragon would endear it to you then why didn't more people try and succeed with this approach? Was it the seemingly duplicable, though strangely unique, act of feeding Sheepstealer that bent it to Nettles will, as Gyldyn would have us believe, or was it a ritualistic blood sacrifice, recorded by Maester Norren, that enabled Nettles unique bond with Sheepstealer? Given the fact that no one else bonded with a dragon via foodstuffs I think it's more likely that Nettles was carrying out a ritualistic blood sacrifice.

It's also worth noting: more time is dedicated to describing Nettles appearance relative to the rest of the dragonseeds as well as her customs/rituals related to bonding with her dragon. The fact that it's mentioned in as much detail is significant, particularly considering how much material was cut in the editing process.

2. Daemon seems to have links to the Old Gods.

• Nettles’ use of blood sacrifice, if you buy that’s what it is, seems to link the two of them to the Old Gods and the tradition of blood sacrifice that we know of in relation their worshipers.
• His time in Harrenhal marked by the slashes on the heart tree is significant for a number of reasons:

First it connects his time there, which is described as a "vigil," with the old gods. Every night at dusk he spent time in the godswood. The choice to highlight this information as one if the significant aspect of his time in Harrenhal seems like an intentional and meaningful connection.

Second mentioning the heart tree in relation to the time he supposedly spent in solitude, waiting for Aemond to arrive, is also significant considering what we know about wierwoods and the lack of solitude before them. The implication is that he wasn’t wondering around Harrenhal in solitude he was convening w/ the old gods every night at dusk w/ out any witnesses.

Third up thread I posted the text of Arya’s time in front of the same heart tree. And it just so happens that each time she convened w/ the old gods in Harrenhal some crazy shit went down (“weasel soup” and the escape from Harrenhal). It seems like there’s a significant connection between the heart tree/Old Gods of Harrenhal and crazy events that follow (3 for 3, so far).

Fourth the 13 slashes in the heart tree are described as "old wounds" that "bleed afresh every spring." In ADwD Hoster Blackwood tells Jamie about the history of Blackwood/Bracken animosity by referencing the Dance specifically (though not by name) and a Blackwood saying that is strikingly similar to the description of the slashes:

Tyrion would like this one. They could talk from dusk to dawn, arguing about books. For a moment his bitterness toward his brother was forgotten, until he remembered what the Imp had done. “So you are fighting over a crown that one of you took from the other back when the Casterlys still held Casterly Rock, is that the root of it? The crown of a kingdom that has not existed for thousands of years?” He chuckled. “So many years, so many wars, so many kings … you’d think someone would have made a peace.”

“Someone did, my lord. Many someones. We’ve had a hundred peaces with the Brackens, many sealed with marriages. There’s Blackwood blood in every Bracken, and Bracken blood in every Blackwood.The Old King’s Peace lasted half a century. But then some fresh quarrel broke out, and the old wounds opened and began to bleed again. That’s how it always happens, my father says. So long as men remember the wrongs done to their forebears, no peace will ever last. So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it.”

“There could be.”

“How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says.”

This passage highlights some clear connections between Daemon and the time he spent in Harrenhal and the Old Gods, of whom the Blackwoods are staunch supporters.

Fifth the Gods Eye and the Isle of Faces is also a significant aspect of Daemon's overall story. The fact that he choose to embark on an apparent suicide mission over the Gods Eye/Isle of Face (know to be significant place for worshipers of the Old Gods) and that his body was never discovered lends itself to speculation. Furthermore the fact that his sword was retrieved and eventually given to his great grandson who just happens to become a 180 year old super-greenseer/warg w/ deep connections to the Old Gods only intensifies the speculation.

Rhaenys_Targaryen, on 09 Dec 2013 - 1:44 PM, said:

Nettles was described as having a brown skin. The Dornishmen (the salty, iirc) have siimlar skin colour to that. So the skin colour would most definitly be around in Westeros.

Also, Nettles is described as being a dragonseed. Rhaenyra and co would most definitly be alarmed if they thought a person without any Targaryen blood managed to tame a dragon.

We don't know if Leaf is the only one of the Children with links to the outside world. Others might as well, but Leaf is one of the few we actually meet.

The only person whose method of taming a dragon is described is that of Nettles. We aren't told how Rhaenyra tamed Syrax, for example. The fact that Nettles fed the dragon for days, is something similar to what people do in our world. And the fact that she claimed that a dragon with its belly filled would be more willing to take commands, is very logical. A hungry dragon will most likely be an angry dragon. And once angry, I doubt a dragon would want to take commands.

How could Nettles be the result of a paring between a Targ and a salty dornish person? Dorne isn't part of the 7 kingdoms at this time and it doesn't seem likely that the Targs would have dornish ships coming to anchor at Dragonstone....maybe during the war on the stepstones?

I don't think Maester Gyldayn's rational and logical explanations are very reliable, of course a Maester would attribute a rational explanation to something they don't understand/fully comprehend. The fact we get a more detailed account from Maester Norren (gotta love that guy), that seems to suggest a ritualistic blood sacrifice (which Gyldayn rationalizes), indicates that there was more going on with Nettles than "cunning and persistence" and the ease of bending a well fed dragon to one's will.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

How could Nettles be the result of a paring between a Targ and a salty dornish person? Dorne isn't part of the 7 kingdoms at this time and it doesn't seem likely that the Targs would have dornish ships coming to anchor at Dragonstone....maybe during the war on the stepstones?

I'm not saying Nettles has Dornish blood. I was just pointing out that brown skin does exist in Westeros, since someone tried to argue that there was no one in Westeros who had such a skin colour.

[RumHam]

I like the idea that Nettles could be a CotF. I'm kind of skeptical simply because she was crying when she left Daemon and it struck me as innocent and childlike. If she were a CotF i would think she would have been the driving force behind Daemon's decision to go to Harrenhal and would have bigger picture perspective as opposed to a sentimental and childish outlook. This in no-way refutes the theory, it's just the impression i got when reading their farewell.

1. The description of Nettles initial bonding w/ Sheapstealer which wasn't witnessed and lacks specific details attributes the bonding to cunning and persistence (i.e. a rational explanation):

However the description of Nettles feeding Sheapstealer at Maidenpool is far more detailed/specific and sounds a lot like a blood sacrifice:

Nettles custom of selecting choice offerings, slitting their throats and staining herself in their blood before riding is unique to her and her alone out of all the dragonseeds, and appears to be the only ritualistic form of bonding between dragon and rider.

If it was so obvious that feeding a dragon would endear it to you then why didn't more people try and succeed with this approach? Was it the seemingly duplicable, though strangely unique, act of feeding Sheepstealer that bent it to Nettles will, as Gyldyn would have us believe, or was it a ritualistic blood sacrifice, recorded by Maester Norren, that enabled Nettles unique bond with Sheepstealer? Given the fact that no one else bonded with a dragon via foodstuffs I think it's more likely that Nettles was carrying out a ritualistic blood sacrifice.

It's also worth noting: more time is dedicated to describing Nettles appearance relative to the rest of the dragonseeds as well as her customs/rituals related to bonding with her dragon. The fact that it's mentioned in as much detail is significant, particularly considering how much material was cut in the editing process.

2. Daemon seems to have links to the Old Gods.

• Nettles’ use of blood sacrifice, if you buy that’s what it is, seems to link the two of them to the Old Gods and the tradition of blood sacrifice that we know of in relation their worshipers.
• His time in Harrenhal marked by the slashes on the heart tree is significant for a number of reasons:

First it connects his time there, which is described as a "vigil," with the old gods. Every night at dusk he spent time in the godswood. The choice to highlight this information as one if the significant aspect of his time in Harrenhal seems like an intentional and meaningful connection.

Second mentioning the heart tree in relation to the time he supposedly spent in solitude, waiting for Aemond to arrive, is also significant considering what we know about wierwoods and the lack of solitude before them. The implication is that he wasn’t wondering around Harrenhal in solitude he was convening w/ the old gods every night at dusk w/ out any witnesses.

Third up thread I posted the text of Arya’s time in front of the same heart tree. And it just so happens that each time she convened w/ the old gods in Harrenhal some crazy shit went down (“weasel soup” and the escape from Harrenhal). It seems like there’s a significant connection between the heart tree/Old Gods of Harrenhal and crazy events that follow (3 for 3, so far).

Fourth the 13 slashes in the heart tree are described as "old wounds" that "bleed afresh every spring." In ADwD Hoster Blackwood tells Jamie about the history of Blackwood/Bracken animosity by referencing the Dance specifically (though not by name) and a Blackwood saying that is strikingly similar to the description of the slashes:

This passage highlights some clear connections between Daemon and the time he spent in Harrenhal and the Old Gods, of whom the Blackwoods are staunch supporters.

Fifth the Gods Eye and the Isle of Faces is also a significant aspect of Daemon's overall story. The fact that he choose to embark on an apparent suicide mission over the Gods Eye/Isle of Face (know to be significant place for worshipers of the Old Gods) and that his body was never discovered lends itself to speculation. Furthermore the fact that his sword was retrieved and eventually given to his great grandson who just happens to become a 180 year old super-greenseer/warg w/ deep connections to the Old Gods only intensifies the speculation.

How could Nettles be the result of a paring between a Targ and a salty dornish person? Dorne isn't part of the 7 kingdoms at this time and it doesn't seem likely that the Targs would have dornish ships coming to anchor at Dragonstone....maybe during the war on the stepstones?

I don't think Maester Gyldayn's rational and logical explanations are very reliable, of course a Maester would attribute a rational explanation to something they don't understand/fully comprehend. The fact we get a more detailed account from Maester Norren (gotta love that guy), that seems to suggest a ritualistic blood sacrifice (which Gyldayn rationalizes), indicates that there was more going on with Nettles than "cunning and persistence" and the ease of bending a well fed dragon to one's will.

She kills the sheep before giving them to her dragon, probably because a dead sheep won't run away. I don't quite see that as "blood sacrifice" in the religious sense just because she gets blood on her. Are butchers associated with the old gods?

I don't know why more people didn't try feeding them to earn their trust. People are stupid? Misinformed by propaganda and myths?

I think the connections between Daemon and the old gods are tenuous at best. Even if we take the Nettles thing as some kinda old gods blood sacrifice (which I really don't see it as) Daemon wasn't the one doing it. Daemon choose Harrenhal for his showdown with Aemond because it had already been burnt and depopulated. I really don't think there's any hidden implication that he went there to commune with the old gods. Someone who thought of a weirwood as holy probably wouldn't be making cuts in it to mark the passage of time. The fact that they wounds bleed every spring is interesting, if true. I don't see the relevance of the quote you posted about the Brackens and Blackwoods. The idea of "old wounds reopening" is a common one.

Again I don't rule out the possibility of him forging some connection with the old gods through the Green Men, if he survived.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

RumHam, on 10 Dec 2013 - 2:38 PM, said:

She kills the sheep before giving them to her dragon, probably because a dead sheep won't run away. I don't quite see that as "blood sacrifice" in the religious sense just because she gets blood on her. Are butchers associated with the old gods? [1]

I don't know why more people didn't try feeding them to earn their trust. People are stupid? Misinformed by propaganda and myths? [2]

I think the connections between Daemon and the old gods are tenuous at best. Even if we take the Nettles thing as some kinda old gods blood sacrifice (which I really don't see it as) Daemon wasn't the one doing it. [3] Daemon choose Harrenhal for his showdown with Aemond because it had already been burnt and depopulated [4]. I really don't think there's any hidden implication that he went there to commune with the old gods.[5] Someone who thought of a weirwood as holy probably wouldn't be making cuts in it to mark the passage of time.[6] The fact that they wounds bleed every spring is interesting, if true. I don't see the relevance of the quote you posted about the Brackens and Blackwoods. .[7] The idea of "old wounds reopening" is a common one.

Again I don't rule out the possibility of him forging some connection with the old gods through the Green Men, if he survived. [8]

1. I didn't say it's a blood sacrifice just because she gets blood on her. I think it's a blood sacrifice because:

a.) she does it ritualistically (as a custom)

b.) she chooses a special offering: the largest ram in Maidenpool,

c.) she sacrifices the offering herself

d.) she makes the offering and rides stained in it’s blood

e.) none of the other dragonseeds appear to have this ritual, no one else bonded w/ a wild dragon, thus her ritual for bonding w/ Sheepstealer was unique and not simply related to the full belly theory of dragon taming.

If you're right that Nettles is just a butcher who slaughters sheep out of practical necessity than why does the text (which has been dramatically cut to save space) specify that she took care to select the largest black ram, a seemingly less than practical choice considering she's described as a small child?

2. How do we know they didn’t? How do we know it was the fact she fed sheepstealer and not how she fed him? If bonding w/ a dragon was as simple as feeding it I doubt 16 people would have died trying. If all it took was feeding them I would think one or more of 16 would have figured it out, particularly after Nettles example. I find it hard to believe the 20 people try bonding w/ dragons, but only one figures out the obvious.

3. If it's taken for granted that Nettles has connections to the Old Gods, than Daemon’s close connection to her is his connection to the Old Gods, even if it's her making the sacrifice. Their relationship could have/likely catalyzed his connection w/ the Old Gods.

4. The list of places in the riverlands laid waste to by Aemond is pretty damn long and would thus be just as suitable based on this rational. The difference however is that he chose Harrenhal, next to the Gods Eye, with a godswood, specifically despite knowing of all the other burnt and depopulated halls throughout the riverlands.

5. Whether he went there to commune w/ the old gods or not is unknown. He chose Harrenhal over plenty of other alternatives, so it's a safe bet he had a reason. And once he was there he certainly had ample opportunity to commune w/ the old gods. Furthermore Daemon’s time at Harrenhal is described in the text as a “vigil,” which has some pretty religious implications and strongly implies that he was in fact communing w/ the Old Gods:

vigil |ˈvijəl|

noun

1 a period of keeping awake during the time usually spent asleep, esp. to keep watch or pray

• a stationary, peaceful demonstration in support of a particular cause, typically without speeches.

2 (in the Christian Church) the eve of a festival or holy day as an occasion of religious observance.

• ( vigils) nocturnal devotions.

6. Slashing a wierwood isn’t necessarily sacrilegious, particularly if it’s part of one’s nocturnal devotions. Keep in mind carving into weirwoods is central to the religion. There are also examples of known worshipers of the old gods slashing weirwoods (e.g. Arya prepared to practice her water dancing in front of/on the heart tree in Harrenhal just before she decides to escape.). There are also examples of followers of the old gods using weirwoods for weapons, which would require harvesting some part of the tree (Bloodraven’s bow, Brandon Snow’s arrows).

7. The relevance of Hoster Blackwood’s comments to Jamie seem self-evident to me. He’s not just vaguely referring to old wounds. He’s specifically alluding to both the Dance of Dragons (“The Old Kings Peace…but some fresh quarrel broke out…”) and Daemon slashing the weirwood (“…and the old wounds opened and began to bleed again.” which i think is actually referring to kinslaying) This phrasing seems like a conscious nod, on GRRM’s part, to the connect Daemon to the Blackwoods (who, according to the MUSH and tPatQ fielded 3 commanders in the Dance: Lord Samwell, Lord Benjicot and Red Robb Rivers), as well as the two passages. This connection is all the more relevant considering where Daemon “dies”, the gods eye (Ran hints otherwise and his body is never found) and who his great-grandson is, Bloodraven. I would not be surprised in the slightest if we are to find out that Daemon mentors Bloodraven, from the Isle of Faces, the same way he mentors Bran from the cave.

8. I think he likely went to Harrenhal knowing he was going to fake his death and disappear to Isle of Face and become a Greenman:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/100284-spoilers-the-princess-and-the-queen-complete-spoilers-discussion/?p=5199179

[Robar]

This is my take on the Velaryon lineage:

Lord Corlys "Sneasake" Velaryon was married to Princess Rhaenys Targaryen, the Queen Who Never Was. Together they had two children:

- Laena, a daughter, who married Prince Daemon Targaryen and had two daughters: Rhaena of Pentos and Baela

- Laenor, a son, the heir to Driftmark. He married Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen and officially had three sons with her:

--- Prince Jacaerys Velaryon, Prince of Dragonstone, dead in the Battle of the Gullet

--- Prince Lucerys Velaryon, killed by Aemond Targaryen

--- Prince Joffrey Velaryon, Prince of Dragonstone, died after falling from Syrax

Addam and Alyn of Hull are supposed to be dragonseeds who hailed from Driftmark, the first having successfully tamed Laenor's dragon, the Seasmoke, while Alyn tried and failed to tame Sheepstealer. Both of them are legitimized as full Velaryons by Rhaenyra and are favoured over Joffrey in the succession of Driftmark.

Now, here comes my theory, based purely on speculation: Lord Corlys had had a bigamous relationship with his wife, Princess Rhaenys, whom he certainly loved very much, and a lowborn woman from Hull, who was some twenty years younger than Rhaenys. His marriage would be akin to Aegon I's, with Rhaenys being the preferred wife (like her namesake) and the lowborn being Lord Corlys' paramour from time to time.

Then, the Dance of Dragons kicks in. Princess Rhaenys dies and Lord Corlys griefs her death very much, even saying to Rhaenyra that it should have been her. After this, he has his two bastards from the same mother legitimized; he has a loving relationship with both of them, which cannot be only restricted to "Addam tamed a dragon, he's badass", since he also has Alyn legitimized after he fails to tame Sheepstealer. Lord Corlys loves Addam enough to sacrifice himself to a mentally unstable queen in order to see him escape from captivity. Lord Corlys himself is stripped of his handship and thrown into the Black Cells. Ser Addam would later die in the Second Battle of Tumbleton and Alyn is never mentioned again. This is where The Princess and the Queen leaves us.

Fast forward one year and Aegon II is defeated and Aegon III crowned King of the Andals and the First Men and married to Princess Jaehaera. We will assume that Aegon II left Lord Corlys rotting in the Black Cells, not caring enough to execute him for treason, or he may have been simply forgotten after Rhaenyra left King's Landing. Either way, Aegon III frees him from prison and offers him the handship once again, which he refuses, for he is mad in grief for all of his grandsons, Princess Rhaenys and his pride and hero, Ser Addam; he might even blame himself for Addam's death, for had he not warned him to flee, he would have been subdued by Rhaenyra and would therefore have not died at Tumbleton.

He goes back to Driftmark with a maimed Alyn Velaryon, his new heir, who sustained enough burns to be plagued by scars in his legs and back for the rest of his life. Lord Corlys rides to Hull and informs Alyn's mother, who is Corlys' dragonseed cousin, of Addam's death. A woman in her mid-30's, she grows mad with grief for some time and Alyn leaves the castle to go live with his mother. Lord Corlys then invites both of them to the castle once again and the three share their grief. After some time, Lord Corlys marries her and is able to father a daughter before he himself dies of old age. This daughter, born in 132/133 AL, who we shall call Velena (Aegon the Conqueror's Velaryon mother), is the one who will marry Aegon III after Jaehaera dies and give birth to Daeron I, Baelor the Blessed, Daena the Defiant, Elaena and another daughter.

Alyn of Hull then inherits Driftmark and marries Baela Targaryen (perhaps for love, both of them could have been attracted to each other due to the dragon affair). In around 135 AL, they sire twin boys, who Alyn names Addam and Alyn in order to emulate his own kinship to his precious older brother. Addam the Younger dies a few weeks later of poor health and Alyn becomes the new heir to Driftmark.

Now, this Alyn the Younger is the one who becomes the famous Admiral Oakenfist, hero of the Dornish Wars. By 157 AL, the Oakenfist would be around 22 years old, a prime age for warfare (and love). Alyn of Hull will have already died by 157, possibly due to his maiming at the breath of Sheepstealer, or perhaps he could be incapable of ruling anymore (in coma, maybe), so that makes the Oakenfist prematurely Lord of the Tides and Master of Driftmark.

This lineage would satisfy both apparent plot holes in GRRM's story. Velena Velaryon, trueborn daughter of Lord Corlys and aunt of the Oakenfist, will marry Aegon III and birth Elaena, who would thus be the Oakenfist's cousin. This also fixes the Oakenfist's age, as he wouldn't be an elderly man by 171, but a relatively young and charming man of 36, the same age as Ned iirc, who is much more likely to seduce the young Elaena.

I'm also pretty sure that we can safely state that Alyn Oakenfist's heir will be named Addam, grandnephew of Addam of Hull. To sum it all up in a traditional ASOIAF format:

CORLYS VELARYON, called SEASNAKE, Master of Driftmark and Lord of the Tides, Hand of the Queen (71-136),

- His first wife, PRINCESS RHAENYS, of House Targaryen, called THE QUEEN WHO NEVER WAS (74-129),

-- Their children:

--- LAENA VELARYON, married to Prince Daemon Targaryen

---- RHAENA and BAELA, their daughters

--- LAENOR VELARYON, married to Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen,

---- PRINCE JACAERYS, PRINCE LUCERYS and PRINCE JOFFREY VELARYON, their sons,

- His second wife, LADY XXXX, his dragonseed cousin,

-- Their children:

--- SER ADDAM VELARYON, called ADDAM OF HULL,

--- LORD ALYN VELARYON, called ALYN OF HULL,

---- Lord Alyn's wife, LADY BAELA, of House Targaryen, and their sons:

---- ADDAM VELARYON, called ADDAM THE YOUNGER,

---- LORD ALYN VELARYON, his twin, called OAKENFIST, Master of Ships of the Iron Throne,

----- JON and JEYNE WATERS, his children by his cousin, Princess Elaena Targaryen,

--- QUEEN VELENA, married to King Aegon III Targaryen,

---- Their children.

[Fire Eater]

Daemon Targaryen does remind me a bit a of the Blackfish now that I think about it.

• Experienced soldier who fought on the Stepstones
  
• Brother to the head of the house
  
• Served his niece at her seat
  
• Primary war counselor for his family
  
• Had an impatient, soft of head nephew who now ruled as the head of the house after his father died
  

[Emilydayne]

There are multiple possibilities for Targaryen blood in Rhaenyra's Arryn mother.

Aegon the Conqueror and Queen Rhaenys had multiple children. Their first born was a daughter, then came Aenys, and next 2 or 3 more girls. Five years after Aenys, Maegor was born. Maegor married a sister of Aenys, the elder one, when he was 13 years old. At this point, Aenys was 18 years old, and his sister was 19 or older. It stands to reason that this marriage happened whilst Aegon the Conqueror was still alive.

Do you know for sure that Aegon and Rhaenys had more than 1 child? Where are you finding that? I guess I don't understand why none of this info is on a family tree. Im kinda of obsessed about it but I dont understand why a more complete Targ fam tree doesn't exist? It's keeping me awake at night.

[Ran]

Robar,

As I've noted, Alyn of Hull is the same person as Alyn Oakenfist, the eventual lover of Elaena Targaryen. There's no plot hole in the age difference -- it's more of a plot point.

[eRome]

Please excuse me if this has already been addressed, but I've noticed a couple of errors in the text (and I'm not even finished…)

“It was bad weather for flying, even fore dragon, and Arrax was struggloing to stay aloft when Price Aemon mounted Vhagar and went after him.” pg. 720

This should be Aemond, not Amemon…correct?

"The youngest of King Aegons’s sons, he had grown up in the shadow of his elder brothers, and was more used to following commands than giving them.” pg. 750

Here George is talking about Daeron Targaryen, who wasn't the son of Aegon, but of Viserys I. Right?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Do you know for sure that Aegon and Rhaenys had more than 1 child? Where are you finding that? I guess I don't understand why none of this info is on a family tree. Im kinda of obsessed about it but I dont understand why a more complete Targ fam tree doesn't exist? It's keeping me awake at night.

It's information from the reading of a piece called the Sons of the Dragon, about Maegor and Aenys. I think that it's not in any "official" family tree yet because the information hasn't been released in a book. The piece that GRRM read was from the World book, which has a current release date of 28/10/2014

Please excuse me if this has already been addressed, but I've noticed a couple of errors in the text (and I'm not even finished…)

“It was bad weather for flying, even fore dragon, and Arrax was struggloing to stay aloft when Price Aemon mounted Vhagar and went after him.” pg. 720

This should be Aemond, not Amemon…correct?

"The youngest of King Aegons’s sons, he had grown up in the shadow of his elder brothers, and was more used to following commands than giving them.” pg. 750

Here George is talking about Daeron Targaryen, who wasn't the son of Aegon, but of Viserys I. Right?

Yes, you are correct. It is Prince Aemond who mounted Vhagar and Aegon, Aemond and Daeron were the sons of King Viserys, not King Aegon.

[dotheknifefight]

On questions of succession and the family tree...

Let's say Baelon is the younger brother of Aemon, father of Viserys & Daemon.

If Laena and Laenor were not born in 92, that could be why Baelon was chosen over Rhaenys - heirs. Rhaenys is a woman and has no children, Baelon has two sons.

Then by 101, Rhaenys is married to the Sea Snake and has two children. She has considerable power and influence, plus two plausible heirs.

Perhaps this Grand Council of 101 also had to do with Viserys' two other sons dying. With Baelon dead, the choice of succession would have turned into two cousins:

• a Targaryen woman through the oldest son of Jaehaerys with a strong partner and two heirs, or
  
• a Targaryen man through the second son of Jaehaerys, unable to father any more children but with a woman for an heir.
  

Viserys became king in 103, so we know which way the realm went at the Grand Council.

If Lady Arryn died in 105, it would make sense for the whole realm to see Rhaenyra as Viserys' heir and swear oaths to her, not expecting Viserys to father any more children. (Note that if the realm didn't want Rhaenyra to sit the Iron Throne, their next choice would be Daemon over Rhaenys)

But then Viserys married Alicent and she started having many children.

On Viserys vs Alicent

Even so, he obviously felt Rhaenyra should sit the throne, to the point that he married her to Laenor - Rhaenys' child and heir to Driftmark (unless I'm mistaken on this last bit?). I bet Laena's marriage to Daemon was also suggested by Viserys (as well as Rhaenyra's as she was wed to Daemon once Laena & Laenor died).

For Rhaenys, this ensures that, no matter what happens to Viserys, one of her children will inherit the throne. (It also strengthens her own claim with two children as heirs)

For Viserys, this ensures his children with Alicent will never sit the Iron Throne.

In contrast, when Laenor died Rhaenyra wasn't wed to Aegon II, her half brother and Viserys' first son to survive infancy. Aegon II and Helaena were married to each other instead of any other branch of the Targaryen family, and there were no betrothals for any children from Alicent's side of things to any other Targaryen (until Jaehaera after Aegon II's death).

There seemed to be something fishy about the relationship between Viserys and Alicent.

• Viserys went to the grave declaring Rhaenyra his heir (this has me thinking more and more that the Arryn wife was of strong Targ blood, also based on what is said in P&Q about Rhaenyra being more Targaryen compared to Aegon II).
  
• Alicent, in Viserys' dying days, schemed and plotted to ensure his plans would not be carried out, and put anyone who questioned why the king's wishes weren't being fulfilled in the dungeons.
  

Alicent wanted her own children to be kings and queens, beginning the reign of House Hightower on the Iron Throne.

Furthermore there is the relationship between Daemon and Otto. Daemon is so "unforgiving" and is so good at holding grudges that Otto believes Daemon's first act as king would be to behead Otto and Alicent. They must have done something Daemon and Rhaenyra didn't like.

Perhaps it has something to do with Laena and Laenor, given their betrothals?

On Addam and Alyn

Now we see Corlys, Rhaenys' husband, after the death of Laenor with heirs through Rhaenyra's children. But what if they are Strongs? I think his desire to legitimize Addam and Velaryons also had to do with keeping Driftmark out of the hands of Rhaenyra's possibly bastard children (which would make them not Velaryons and perhaps, in his mind, not worthy of the seat)

On Baela and Rhaena

Baela and Rhaena were twins, so both of them were born in Pentos. Yet only Rhaena seems to be "of Pentos". Is this to distinguish her from Jaehaerys' sister Rhaena?

There must have been a sort of peace in Essos by 116AL, as Rhaena and Baela were born in Pentos and there was no fighting on the Stepstones around then.

On Larys and Daemon's inside man

I think Larys Strong was not a fan of Aegon II nor Rhaenyra.

His idea to send Maelor to Tumbleton, which could have strongly sealed Maelor's death, keeps Aegon II from having any male heir. And I'm not really sure Larys was trying to help Aegon II by sending him to Dragonstone.

Then there is the connection between Harwin and Larys Strong as a possible reason why Larys would either hold something against Rhaenyra or help her.

I find it interesting Daemon invaded Harrenhal, which belonged to Larys, considering the Rhaenyra-Harwin connection and that Larys didn't do anything about it. In the end, I think if Orwyle was Daemon's inside man, Larys would probably be the go between.

I've heard Varys' -ys name to be support for his Targaryen ancestry. When will that start with Larys?

“Someone did, my lord. Many someones. We’ve had a hundred peaces with the Brackens, many sealed with marriages. There’s Blackwood blood in every Bracken, and Bracken blood in every Blackwood.The Old King’s Peace lasted half a century. But then some fresh quarrel broke out, and the old wounds opened and began to bleed again."

Winter came to Westeros in 130. When spring came after the Dance, there would be fresh reasons to divide the two families.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On Baela and Rhaena

Baela and Rhaena were twins, so both of them were born in Pentos. Yet only Rhaena seems to be "of Pentos". Is this to distinguish her from Jaehaerys' sister Rhaena?

There must have been a sort of peace in Essos by 116AL, as Rhaena and Baela were born in Pentos and there was no fighting on the Stepstones around then.

I think that Rhaena was nicknamed Rhaena of Pentos indeed to distinguish her from Jaehaerys' sister Rhaena.

On Larys and Daemon's inside man

I think Larys Strong was not a fan of Aegon II nor Rhaenyra.

His idea to send Maelor to Tumbleton, which could have strongly sealed Maelor's death, keeps Aegon II from having any male heir. And I'm not really sure Larys was trying to help Aegon II by sending him to Dragonstone.

Then there is the connection between Harwin and Larys Strong as a possible reason why Larys would either hold something against Rhaenyra or help her.

I find it interesting Daemon invaded Harrenhal, which belonged to Larys, considering the Rhaenyra-Harwin connection and that Larys didn't do anything about it. In the end, I think if Orwyle was Daemon's inside man, Larys would probably be the go between.

I too found it strange that Larys at first seemed to be completely for Aegon II, whilst there was a possibility that the three children of Rhaenyra he would be fighting against were his own next of kin. Perhaps the rumours regarding Ser Harwin Strong (of whom we don't know if he was a brother to Larys, or a counsin), was a dishonour for Larys' house? And if so, he would hate Rhaenyra for it. Yet sending Maelor to Tumblestone would indeed be a terrible move for someone who supports Aegon II. But I thought Maelor was send to Storm's End, or Oldtown? I can't really remember, I've only read that part once and I don't have time to read everything again to check.

I doubt Orwyle was Daemon's man. Daemons people arrest him after all the second they spot Caraxes above KL. And Orwyle isn't mentioned to have been freed from him imprisonment after Rhaenyra and Daemon take KL, while Daemon is present in KL for a while.

I've heard Varys' -ys name to be support for his Targaryen ancestry. When will that start with Larys?

I think it already started. :p There are those who are sure now that Varys is a descendant from Harrenhal, because Larys sounds like Varys and they both occupy the same position in the Small Council. If we should believe all of the theories about Varys and his ancestors, he descents from a lot of people (Aerion, Daemon Blackfyre, House Strong).

[dotheknifefight]

I too found it strange that Larys at first seemed to be completely for Aegon II, whilst there was a possibility that the three children of Rhaenyra he would be fighting against were his own next of kin. Perhaps the rumours regarding Ser Harwin Strong (of whom we don't know if he was a brother to Larys, or a counsin), was a dishonour for Larys' house? And if so, he would hate Rhaenyra for it. Yet sending Maelor to Tumblestone would indeed be a terrible move for someone who supports Aegon II. But I thought Maelor was send to Storm's End, or Oldtown? I can't really remember, I've only read that part once and I don't have time to read everything again to check.

I doubt Orwyle was Daemon's man. Daemons people arrest him after all the second they spot Caraxes above KL. And Orwyle isn't mentioned to have been freed from him imprisonment after Rhaenyra and Daemon take KL, while Daemon is present in KL for a while.

“Ser Rickard Thorne was commanded to deliver two-year-old Prince Maelor to Lord Hightower. Princess Jaehaera, a sweet and simple girl of six, was put in the charge of Ser Willis Fell, who swore to bring her safely to Storm’s End. ”

Lord Hightower was at Tumbleton at the time.

Jaehaera was sent to Storm's End, which is peculiar. Not only was she later married to Aegon II (in a WTF-moment/shortlived ploy to unite these separate Targaryen factions) but Storm's End did not seem to send any troops to support the Hightower forces or Aegon's side of the Dance in general.

After Aegon & his children went missing, we got this quote from Daemon:

The war will end when the heads of the traitors are mounted on spikes above the King’s Gate, and not before.” Aegon II would be found in time, “hiding under some rock,” but they could and should bring the war to Aemond and Daeron. The Lannisters and Baratheons should be destroyed as well, so their lands and castles might be given to men who had proved more loyal. Grant Storm’s End to Ulf White and Casterly Rock to Hard Hugh Hammer, the prince proposed … to the horror of the Sea Snake.

Then we find out Aegon II was hiding in a cave on Dragonstone and Ulf & Hugh end up defecting.

I almost believe Daemon was playing the long game, along with Larys, and wanted to get everyone but his children out of the way.

With the story told from the point of view of the maesters (and septons?) involved, we would be blind to the secrets motives behind Daemon's words, Larys' actions, and the Baratheon inaction.

(Also, Rhaenys_Targaryen, I was looking forward to what you might have to say about the first two parts, succession and Viserys vs Alicent)

[The hairy bear]

His idea to send Maelor to Tumbleton, which could have strongly sealed Maelor's death, keeps Aegon II from having any male heir. And I'm not really sure Larys was trying to help Aegon II by sending him to Dragonstone.

Larys didn't send Maelor to Tumbleton. The text specifically says that he sent Ser Tickard Thorne to deliver Maelor to Lord Hightower. And at this point (when KL fell to Rhaenyra) Lord Hightower hadn't even crossed the Mander, and was in his own land surrounded by Aegon loyalists. The travel involves some risk, of course, but there was no real safer option. And sending the heir of your king to the care of your strongest supporter makes all the sense.

Larys was the one who suggested to swear a blood oath to defend Aegon. He was the one to prepare the list of those who attended Rhaenyra's coronation that led to the capture of Duskendale and the beheading of Lord Darklyn (who was caught unawares with the gates opened).

The suggestion that he saved Maelor and Aegon from the ultimate defeat at KL, and then led them to dangerous places because he wanted them captured or killed, makes very little sense to me.

Absolutely everything Larys does indicates that he is clearly in the "green" camp.

[dotheknifefight]

Lord Hightower was still on the front lines of the battle. Leading it, IIRC, and stays his position through to the end. In which he dies.

Absolutely everything Larys does indicates that he is clearly in the "green" camp.

Or that he's in neither camp and seeks to cast suspicion off by doing things like being the first one to swear loyalty to the greens. I never said he was on Rhaenyra's side.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

In that case, I'll do that just for you :)

On questions of succession and the family tree...

Let's say Baelon is the younger brother of Aemon, father of Viserys & Daemon.

If Laena and Laenor were not born in 92, that could be why Baelon was chosen over Rhaenys - heirs. Rhaenys is a woman and has no children, Baelon has two sons.

Then by 101, Rhaenys is married to the Sea Snake and has two children. She has considerable power and influence, plus two plausible heirs.

Perhaps this Grand Council of 101 also had to do with Viserys' two other sons dying. With Baelon dead, the choice of succession would have turned into two cousins:

• a Targaryen woman through the oldest son of Jaehaerys with a strong partner and two heirs, or
  
• a Targaryen man through the second son of Jaehaerys, unable to father any more children but with a woman for an heir.
  

Viserys became king in 103, so we know which way the realm went at the Grand Council.

If Lady Arryn died in 105, it would make sense for the whole realm to see Rhaenyra as Viserys' heir and swear oaths to her, not expecting Viserys to father any more children. (Note that if the realm didn't want Rhaenyra to sit the Iron Throne, their next choice would be Daemon over Rhaenys)

But then Viserys married Alicent and she started having many children.

I do believe that Baelon will end up being the father of Viserys and Daemon.

If it was like you said, then it would strengthen Baelon's claim. Yet, looking at the difference in age between Rhaenys and Daemon (6 years), I cannot help but feel that Viserys was younger than Rhaenys as well. So if Rhaenys didn't have any children yet in 92 AL, than none of them had any children.

Baelon would have been a brother to Aemon, which would make the decision harder. Continue through the main line (Aemon's) or follow the males (Baelon)?

I agree with you that by 101 AL, Rhaenys' children must have both been born. Baelon is no longer considered, which means he most likely died, which is what most likely caused the Great Council to be called together. At the end of Maekars reign, the Great Council needs to choose an heir because it isn't immediately logical who should be the heir to the throne. I guess that was the case here as well, which would only be reinforced by the fact that Rhaenys, from the elder branch, was still alive and had children (read: a son) of her own to inherit after her.

Rhaenyra was born in 97 AL and had two elder brothers, iirc, who had died very young. In 105 AL, she was Viserys' only child, and he made lords and ladies swear to defend her rights. It seems to me that Viserys' last son of his Arryn wife must have died shortly before, either in 104 or 105 AL. When Viserys' wife died, I can't say, but she might have died before 105 AL.

If Viserys is close in age to Daemon (which is most likely) than he would have been young enough to have more children - which he did. The fact that he wanted Rhaenyra to take the throne after him, can come from the fact that his Arryn wife had Targaren blood (by het mother or grandmother most likely).

The entire realm seemed to agree with Viserys in 105 AL. But what other choice did they have? Daemon had no sons, and Rhaenys was a woman. Rhaenyra was the only Targaryen child suitable.

On Viserys vs Alicent

Even so, he obviously felt Rhaenyra should sit the throne, to the point that he married her to Laenor - Rhaenys' child and heir to Driftmark (unless I'm mistaken on this last bit?). I bet Laena's marriage to Daemon was also suggested by Viserys (as well as Rhaenyra's as she was wed to Daemon once Laena & Laenor died).

For Rhaenys, this ensures that, no matter what happens to Viserys, one of her children will inherit the throne. (It also strengthens her own claim with two children as heirs)

For Viserys, this ensures his children with Alicent will never sit the Iron Throne.

In contrast, when Laenor died Rhaenyra wasn't wed to Aegon II, her half brother and Viserys' first son to survive infancy. Aegon II and Helaena were married to each other instead of any other branch of the Targaryen family, and there were no betrothals for any children from Alicent's side of things to any other Targaryen (until Jaehaera after Aegon II's death).

There seemed to be something fishy about the relationship between Viserys and Alicent.

• Viserys went to the grave declaring Rhaenyra his heir (this has me thinking more and more that the Arryn wife was of strong Targ blood, also based on what is said in P&Q about Rhaenyra being more Targaryen compared to Aegon II).
  
• Alicent, in Viserys' dying days, schemed and plotted to ensure his plans would not be carried out, and put anyone who questioned why the king's wishes weren't being fulfilled in the dungeons.
  

Alicent wanted her own children to be kings and queens, beginning the reign of House Hightower on the Iron Throne.

Furthermore there is the relationship between Daemon and Otto. Daemon is so "unforgiving" and is so good at holding grudges that Otto believes Daemon's first act as king would be to behead Otto and Alicent. They must have done something Daemon and Rhaenyra didn't like.

Perhaps it has something to do with Laena and Laenor, given their betrothals?

Rhaenyra's first son was born in 114 AL, which would have made Rhaenyra's wedding to Laenor take place in 113 AL or sooner. Even though Viserys himself had two sons already by this time, it seems logical to me that he wouldn't want Rhaenyra to marry one of them. They are too young, and Rhaenyra would have to wait too long to birth heirs. Marrying her to Laenor, indeed, would fuse the main branch and the ruling branch back together, which is only made stronger by the marriage of Laena to Daemon, and, in the future, the bethrotal of Laenor's son to Laena's daughter.

The marriage of Rhaenyra and Laenor might also have erased any hostile feelings Rhaenys might have felt. It would be her blood that would sit the Iron Throne anyway, according to Viserys' plan. She might not get a chance herself to sit the IT, but at least her own blood (her grandson) would. I think this was well done by Viserys.

But you are right. After Laenors death, sometime between 116 AL and 119 AL (Laenor's youngest son was born in 117 AL, but Laenor could have impregnated his wife shortly before his death, leading to his son being born after he had already passed. Rhaenyra's eldest child by Daemon is born in 120 AL, which would place their marriage in 119 AL), Aegon II was between 11 and 14 years old. Although it might have been a bit strange, to marry such a young boy to a woman ten years older, stranger things have happened in Westeros. Yet this is not what happened.

Though we don't know if it was the decision of Viserys not to marry Rhaenyra to Aegon, or whether it was the influence of Alicent that caused it not to happen, I guess this is Alicents work. Aegon marries his full sister, which would create a Targaryen lineage with only Targaryen and Hightower blood. Aemond, though 19 at the beginning of the Dance, is not yet married, though he had reached the age a while ago. This is also strange indeed. It could be that Alicent was actively plotting for a longer time. Seeing at Aeon and Helaena married at least 7 years prior, and Rhaenyra's second marriage happened about 10 to 13 years prior to the Dance, I'd say Alicent might have been plotting ever since she birthed her first child.

For Alicent to get her own children on the throne, a marriage to Rhaenyra would have been useless, since Rhaenyra already had three sons. So she actively went against that.

Daemon and Otto seem to have hate each other for a while. Though I'm not sure Daemon's hatred is also pointed towards Alicent, it most certainly is personal for Otto. Since Otto has been the Hand for many years (during Viserys' entire reign, and partly under Jaehaerys), and Daemon was Commander of the City Watch, I guess that they might have clashed a few times (or more than a few times), since Daemon seems to have been known rather well in the "underworld" of KL, and not necessarily in a bad way. This is not something one would expect from a Lord Commander of the City Watch.

Those clashed between the two men could have ended in hostilities, which could have turned into hatred. Otto might fear for the life of Alicent, but I can't see any reason Daemon would have to execute either one of them. Perhaps Otto was exaggerating a bit, and he threw Alicent and her children into the mix because it would add more justifications for the cause of the Greens. Just as how Rhaenyra would execute Aegon, his brothers and his children - why would she, if Aegon II did not want the throne at all?

I can't really see how the bethrotals of Laena and Laenor can have had anthing to do with hostilities between Daemon and Otto. Sure, Otto might have aspired to marry his younger son to Laena, but you could say he might have been overreaching there. The two children were most likely of an age with each other, but the older Daemon married Laena instead.

I agree with you on most points though :) Alicent seems to have been plotting for much longer than only Viserys' last few weeks alive though. For instance, no one ever considered marrying Jace to Helaena, while they were only six years appart (the same age difference between Maegor the Cruel and his first wife). That would have been an option for Alicent, but it would have meant she would share a grandchild with Rhaenyra, and that was something Alicent seemed not to want.