Varys' Conflicting Intentions...

[Lord Commander Suneelio]

Varys is supposed to want a Targaryen on the Iron Throne and has been helping them from King's Landing over the years. This is why it doesn't make sense to me that he would inform King Aerys about Rhaegar's plan to potentially overthrow him after he speaks to the other Lords at the Tourney at Harrenhal. Everybody knows Aerys was a terrible king, so why would Varys create this strife between the Targaryens?

It also makes me wonder what him and Illyrio Mopatis were doing with Viserys and Daenerys all those years when they knew of Aegon's existence and better claim (assuming he's not fake). The only explanation I can think of is that they wanted to keep them close, while keeping Aegon safely hidden. It could also be that they thought they all might be the three heads of the dragon.

Lastly, the biggest problem with Varys as a Targaryen loyalist is that he is supposed to hate magic because of his past in Essos and how he was gelded. Why would Varys support those that use magic in the form of dragons when he knows the dangers?

[RoamingRonin]

Varys is a not a Targaryen loyalist. Dragons are not magic (that is to say: dragons are know spell-casting creatures or anything like that).

[The Snark of Winterfell]

I don't think Varys is a Targ Loyalist at all, simply with the Rhaegar/Aerys thing alone. Coupled with the fact that he didn't really give Dany or Viserys that much support. The only Targ he genuinely supported was Aegon, who is most likely fake and is certainly the mummer's dragon.

Varys has his own grand scheme, don't know if he is a Blackfyre or a faceless man or whatever, but I don't think he's a Targ.

[RumHam]

Varys is supposed to want a Targaryen on the Iron Throne and has been helping them from King's Landing over the years. This is why it doesn't make sense to me that he would inform King Aerys about Rhaegar's plan to potentially overthrow him after he speaks to the other Lords at the Tourney at Harrenhal. Everybody knows Aerys was a terrible king, so why would Varys create this strife between the Targaryens?

If Varys and Illyrio had some version of their Blackfyre/takeover westeros plan back then, they would have wanted to keep crazy Aerys on the throne. Rheagar would have been a more competent king and people would have been less ready to rebel and side with the Blackfyres under his rule.

It also makes me wonder what him and Illyrio Mopatis were doing with Viserys and Daenerys all those years when they knew of Aegon's existence and better claim (assuming he's not fake). The only explanation I can think of is that they wanted to keep them close, while keeping Aegon safely hidden. It could also be that they thought they all might be the three heads of the dragon.

They knew about these other true Targaryen claimants, and that they could cause problems for their plans with the fake Aegon. They could have had them killed, but it made more sense to keep them close and use them to help prove Aegon's legitimacy later on. Then at some point a plan may have been hatched to send Daenerys and Viserys into Westeros with a Khalasar and have Aegon come to the rescue after a few months.

[Mladen]

Lord Commander Suneelio, welcome to the boards. May you have nice and pleasant time here :cheers:

The explanation is rather simple: Varys is not Targaryen loyalist. He played the Game for quite some time.

[Mithras]

Actually, Dany and Viserys didnot come to Illyrio's Manse long before the marriage to Drogo. It was 6 months before Dany met Drogo IIRC. So, Illyrio practically didnot lift a finger for the exile Targaryens for most of their lives.

[Mycah Bluth]

I've been under the impression for a while that Varys' endgame is a more populist Westeros. By the end of ADwD, he seems to be facilitating the Faith Militant and the Poor Fellows' rise to power, and raising a leader who will be his and Illyrio's creation (in various ways). All the more egalitarian/revolutionary if Aegon sets up a more democratic way of doing things, and if it's revealed that Aegon is no royal but just a regular man who's capable of far more than centuries of cruel dynastic megalomaniacs. It's as Varys himself says: he's for the children.

[mankytoes]

Varys is supposed to want a Targaryen on the Iron Throne and has been helping them from King's Landing over the years. This is why it doesn't make sense to me that he would inform King Aerys about Rhaegar's plan to potentially overthrow him after he speaks to the other Lords at the Tourney at Harrenhal. Everybody knows Aerys was a terrible king, so why would Varys create this strife between the Targaryens?

It also makes me wonder what him and Illyrio Mopatis were doing with Viserys and Daenerys all those years when they knew of Aegon's existence and better claim (assuming he's not fake). The only explanation I can think of is that they wanted to keep them close, while keeping Aegon safely hidden. It could also be that they thought they all might be the three heads of the dragon.

Lastly, the biggest problem with Varys as a Targaryen loyalist is that he is supposed to hate magic because of his past in Essos and how he was gelded. Why would Varys support those that use magic in the form of dragons when he knows the dangers?

Maybe because both real and asoiaf history show that civil war is the most devestating thing that can happen to a country, and he thinks they are better off trying to control Aerys, and just waiting for him to die/bumping him off?

I have always believed there's at least some truth in what he said to Ned in the dungeon, that he serves the realm. As he said to Kevan, he doesn't support Aegon because of his blood right, he supports him because he's been raised as a good king.

[Lord Varys]

We should really consider the possibility that Varys convincing Aerys to attend Harrenhal was a successful ploy to prevent a war for the good of the Realm. Rhaegar may have tried to call a Great Council there, but I'd very surprised if this would have been a legal Great Council at all (not being called by the king/Iron Throne), and Aerys and his supporters would not have backed down. War would have been inevitable.

Rhaegar's dreamy/melancholic personality does not seem to make him the ideal decisive politician, either. We see how good he was at taking charge during the Rebellion, and I'm not so sure if he had the stones to go through with a rebellion against his father after the Lords at Harrenhal had declared him to new King/Prince Regent.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

The reason Varys would tell Aerys about Rhaegar's plan to dethrone him is because it is Varys' job to do that.

Even being a Targ loyalist (and actually I think he may be, unlike many who have commented ahead of me) he would still want to do his job. If you don't do your job, you get fired--and with Aerys that could be literal.

[Mladen]

We should really consider the possibility that Varys convincing Aerys to attend Harrenhal was a successful ploy to prevent a war for the good of the Realm. Rhaegar may have tried to call a Great Council there, but I'd very surprised if this would have been a legal Great Council at all (not being called by the king/Iron Throne), and Aerys and his supporters would not have backed down. War would have been inevitable.

Rhaegar's dreamy/melancholic personality does not seem to make him the ideal decisive politician, either. We see how good he was at taking charge during the Rebellion, and I'm not so sure if he had the stones to go through with a rebellion against his father after the Lords at Harrenhal had declared him to new King/Prince Regent.

I am not sure about this. Aerys certainly have had some support, but Rhaegar was dreamy prince who had support of literally ALL Great Houses with most powerful Houses in the realm too. I mean, compared to that, Aerys' support is almost non-existent. He couldn't have had counted on anyone, beside his KG and perhaps several small Houses of Crownlands. So, no, I don't think that successful Great Council (which I think would have been very much legal) would result in some serious confrontation.

[Mal Malenkirk]

Varys might not have had a very high opinion of Rhaegar as a potential king either.

He has gotten a lot praise from the likes of Barristan, but a prophecy obessed king ain't necessarily a good thing, IMO.

[Mal Malenkirk]

Let's just for a moment assume that Varys desire was always to put a just king on the throne. Basically, let's take at face value his monologue to Kevan Lannister as he was dying.

His actions regarding Rhaegar might simply mean he did not see him as a king of the people. He wasn't wrong either. Rhaegar's elopement with Lyanna do not say: 'My foremost concern is the welfare of my subjects', does it? Mad for fire or Mad for Prophecy, when it comes to welfare of the kingdom, neither are very promising.

[Blackfyre Gateau]

Varys might not have had a very high opinion of Rhaegar as a potential king either.

He has gotten a lot praise from the likes of Barristan, but a prophecy obessed king ain't necessarily a good thing, IMO.

Spot on - many would also say the same about Dany!

I also see Barristan as an unreliable POV character, because his judgment is arguably clouded by an obsession with chivalry and honour. The mythology of Rhaegar as some sort of messianic throw-back to the age of heroes really went into overdrive with Barristan's ADWD chapters. Give me a realist like Jorah any day.

[the conquering bastard 25]

We should really consider the possibility that Varys convincing Aerys to attend Harrenhal was a successful ploy to prevent a war for the good of the Realm. Rhaegar may have tried to call a Great Council there, but I'd very surprised if this would have been a legal Great Council at all (not being called by the king/Iron Throne), and Aerys and his supporters would not have backed down. War would have been inevitable.

Rhaegar's dreamy/melancholic personality does not seem to make him the ideal decisive politician, either. We see how good he was at taking charge during the Rebellion, and I'm not so sure if he had the stones to go through with a rebellion against his father after the Lords at Harrenhal had declared him to new King/Prince Regent.

Nothing about Rhaeagar's character strikes me as dreamy. Jamie Lannister hears Rhaegar's voice in his dream and its described as being iron toned. That strikes me more of someone having steel in their spine.

Also, I don't know why people haven't thought that maybe Rhaegar wanted his father right there at Harrenhal. That it didn't spoil anything. IF anything it should have showed the realm just how fucking crazy his father was. Look at what he did to Jamie Lannister. Made him return to the Red Keep. Part of the tourney's purpose was to welcome Jamie into the ranks of the KG. Having him leave early shows what an ungrateful ass his father is. The Knight of the Laughing Tree, also shows how paranoid the king is becoming. That's seeing foes in the shadows and even with the full court/realm was there.

The entire realm or those that mattered where there. You don't need to actually talk to someone to send messages. There is such thing as sending a hidden message. These books should have taught people there is more than one way to skin a cat. That's why it's called intrigue. Because it's hidden, under the surface, that what one says in public and on the surface might not be what one is really trying to say.

Remember what Tyion was trying to get across to Blont in the throne room while talking to Joff? There is such a thing as a threat and a hidden threat.

The crowing of Lyanna Stark is one such hidden message.

I'm surprised no one as ever bothered to figure out what he's trying to tell the realm.

I can make your daughter queen without spilling a drop of blood. I can give you southorn ambitions all I ask is the help of removing my father. He knew about what Rickard and his friends were up to. That's another reason he wanted to hold the tourney.

As to Varys, he's not against the Targs, he's against the Lannisters, it was Tywin that more than likely if he's a blackfyre/brightflame descendant then it stands to reason that Tywin did something when he was in Lys to remove him and his sister as a threat. TO his plan to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and he wouldn't want anyone to threatened her or her children by the dragon. So female bloodline or no, he would want them removed.

[Lord Varys]

As far as we know, only kings (Jaehaerys I) or people in charge (whoever called the Great Council of 233) can call a Great Council. There is no reason to believe that the Prince of Dragonstone could have done such a thing in accordance with Westerosi law. He was not in charge, but supposed to serve and obey his father, as all sons should.

Westeros is a very patriarchal society. Sure, some knights and lords would have flocked to Rhaegar's cause, and, with Aerys absent, perhaps he would have won the day in votes, but the lords/knights supporting him would essentially back a son who is trying to usurp the place of his father, a son who may be forced to commit patricide if the ball starts rolling.

What sort of Lord could honestly support a son who is rebelling against his own father - especially a son who is already his father's heir and who has only to wait for his death? Rhaegar would look greedy, overly ambitious, and - above all - ungrateful.

Perhaps Rhaegar could have won the day if he had acted decisively immediately after a successful Great Council at Harrenhal, but what if Aerys had marshaled his own armies, declared Rhaegar a traitor, offered the hand of his loyal son and heir Prince Viserys to the man who brought his son's head?

We should all remember what Maynard/Bloodraven said in TMK - 'You would be surprised how many lords like a gallant and stupid king' (quoted from memory). Replace 'gallant and stupid' with 'mad and open-handed' and you know that half the Realm would Aerys just in hope for favors, riches, office, and, of course, power. The Hand and Small Council under a mad king would be extraordinary powerful, and all the ambitious people would rather back Aerys than Rhaegar in such a fight.

Even Tywin, perhaps. If he saved Aerys from Rhaegar (who was already married to Elia), Tywin could perhaps finally marry Cersei to the next in line to the Iron Throne (Viserys).

And Rhaegar was clearly not a very good politician/leader/strategic mind. A few of his mistakes:

1. Abduct Lyanna. Abduct Lyanna. Abduct Lyanna.

2. Leaving his wife and children in the hands of his father (or close by so that his father's forces could get a hold on them).

When Rhaegar marches off to the Trident he says to Jaime that things will change when he comes back (and that he wanted to do something long ago - at Harrenhal - but did not have the stones). When you first look, the plan looks much more sound now - Rhaegar would return from the Trident as victor over the rebels at the head of a Targaryen army. He could make demands. He could take away power from his father. Or could he? His friends Oswell Whent and Arthur Dayne were at the Tower of Joy, together with the White Bull (who may have not been in his camp, either), and Aerys had Elia and her children in his custody. If Rhaegar had came back demanding that Aerys abdicate or allow him to rule as Prince Regent, Elia and her children would not have lived to see this happening.

[Mladen]

Varys might not have had a very high opinion of Rhaegar as a potential king either.

He has gotten a lot praise from the likes of Barristan, but a prophecy obessed king ain't necessarily a good thing, IMO.

Yeah, he was obsessed with prophecies about "songs of ice and fire, PTWP"... Too bad that his obsession was unfounded... Oh wait, it wasn't... Criticizing Rhaegar for thinking about prophecies when those prophecies are coming true is ironically hilarious.

[the conquering bastard 25]

We don't know what happened with Lyanna but I bet it wasn't just because she had a nice pair of teats and was a tight push. Lyanna comes from First Man descent. She's got the blood of kings, wargs and such running through her veins. I mean if one was to really think about it her parents, combined the two lines of house Stark, starting with the line that had Arryn blood though various Vale houses marriages, and then the other line has a blackwood in the family tree(just 1 generation back from Rickard). Last time the dragon and raven got into bed together they created the most powerful green seer and warg of his generation or in the last 100 years! So Rhaegar's got to think that her father and his old war buddies may be plotting rebellion. Like your own quote said, Robert is the quintessential stupid but fierce ruler that men love. He's 4 in line for the throne if something happens to the main line of house Targaryen. The Trout, Stag, Lion, Direwolf and a rose bannerman were getting into bed with. This rose bannerman has a fleet that could have matched the Iron fleet or Targ/Velayron fleet. With the added advantage that it can go anywhere in the realm without raising an eyebrow. They are merchant ships. So even if they aren't used for war, they can be used for building a spy net work as sailors love to gossip. Please don't hand me the line that those marriages were innocent either, even on the best of circumstances those marriages were a step to destabilizing the realm. At worst those marriages could bring the fucking realm to it's knees. Let's take a look shall we?

Riverrun is a strong three-sided castle, although not especially large. The castle is bordered on the north by the Tumblestone and on the south by the Red Fork, while on the west a third side faces a massive man-made ditch. In time of danger the sluice gates can be opened to fill a wide moat and leave the castle surrounded on all three sides by water, turning Riverrun into an island and leaving it practically unassailable. It commands a view of many leagues.

The castle has sandstone walls which rise sheer from the water, its battlements are crenelated and have arrow loops, and its towers command the opposite shores. Riverrun's keep is located inside. Properly garrisoned, Riverrun can hold supplies for men and horses for as long as two years; a garrison of two hundred men is larger than Riverrun requires in most circumstances.Some guardsmen wear fish-crest helms.

• The keep is triangular, like Riverrun itself, and the lord's solar is triangular as well with a stone balcony jutting eastwards. The solar can be reached by a spiral stairway.

• The Great Hall is where large councils are held and the high seat of the Tullys sits. There is a private audience chamber above the Great Hall with a high seat for the lord and a bell to ring for servants.

• The dungeons of Riverrun are windowless, their doors heavy and made of wood and iron.

• The Wheel Tower has a great waterwheel within it, which is turned by the Tumblestone whose waters go through it. It has ivy climbing alongside it, below it one makes a wide turn and ends up in churning waters. Eventually one can reach the Water Gate.

• The Water Gate has a wide arch and a heavy iron portcullis, red with rust in its lower half. It is named so for being half in the water. One must use a boat to go through it. Many boats are tied up within the Water Gate, secured to iron rings in the walls. The water stair leads from the lower bailey up to the castle.

With the use of Riverrun, one could technically go anywhere in the realm. If one had the ships one could invade the west via, the Tumblestone or by pass Harrenhal but using the Trident or North by using the Trident to flow into the different tributaries of the Trident as far north passed the Twins. That’s faster mobility than on horse or foot. Now where would they get the ships? The Arryns don’t have a great fleet that we know of, the North has burned it’s ships and hasn’t been a sea power for generations beyond count. That leaves the Trident but they wouldn't have any sea power. So what’s an alliance to do? Nor is the Stormlands some great sea power either seeing as the cove around Storm’s End is called Shipwrech bay for god’s sake. They need ships so where do they look the Redwyne fleet. Which is better than the Iron fleet or house Velayron’s ships. The Redwyne fleet is comprised of mostly merchant ship(which if they are be dispersed throughout the realm, no one would raise an eyebrow as that’s their job to sell their wine.) Yet wasn’t there suppose to be a marriage between the Blackfish and a Redwyne, yes there was and I’m thinking that was for that purpose.

So there is Cat, Brandon, Robert, and Lyanna’s marriage along with the blackfish. So let’s look at what those marriages could have done to the realm if left unchecked. Add in the marriage between Lysa Tully and Jamie Lannister and the realm is in for a shit storm.

Normally these different countries wouldn't marry outside their region but when it's time for war, that's a time for alliances to be made and the easiest way to seal an alliance is through marriage. Think about this as if it really was a game and the name of the game is set yourself up for the win. That is why GRRM invent the game of Cyvvse because it models Chess. There is a reason its a game of kings. It teaches you how you and those around you think. Think of the piece of the info you have as pieces to be moved on the board.

Now if anyone has bothered to pay attention to how armies have been moved though the series or looked a map let’s look at what those marriages if war broke out could do to the realm.

For starters it sits between the Tumblestone which goes all the way to the Crag and Ashmark. Meaning that if the rock isn't on your side and you have the long ship theoretically you could sail into the West and by pass the Golden tooth completely. The Red Folk to the South can take you quite far in to the Trident and even reach the Crownlands from there all by small longships or pole boats. Adding speed to your movements West to East of Westeros. Even if you don't use the rivers, you have them to act as a road block north and south of the castle. Keep a small roving party on either banks of the river one at Pink Maiden to help scout and keep and eye on anyone coming up from the Reach.

Then there are the Stormland, you could send an army all the way up to the Kingswoods with out anyone know that you had marched on KL. This is the tactic that Stannis was using in ACOK.OR you march that army south and keep the Dornishmen pinned up in the Dorne. Keep them pinned in the marshes and Dorne removes them from being able to link up for Highgarden forces while also, leaving the capital free of defenders or supporter to oppose the enemy from taking the capital.

By having a marriage to the Lord Paramour on your side sending your levies down become a lot simpler as Frey is a)fighting with a strong alliance base and it's in his best interest because an army coming down from the Neck and another coming up from Riverrun, might not bode well for Late Lord Walder Frey. B)The Twin's makes a nice position for your rearguard or reserves to sit as they can link up with any armies coming down for the mountain of the Vale. Not to mention that it sits on where all three major branches of the Trident meets.

With a marriage between these two(Lion and Trout), they now have the arms of house Lannister and a vast war chest that can match Aerys, whom left the coffers overflowing with gold. As the kings own hand he would have to have some idea of where the money was going and what the treasury looked like. Add in the Lannister fleet and it will be slaughter in the streets and the realm must bleed.

You also have the Lannister fleet to oppose the Ironborn if they decided to fight for the crown. If not then send the fleet down to Oldtown. The Arbor and the Lannister fleet can engage the Hightowers so they can't send help north as they have to defend their own shores. From OldTown take, Brightwater Keep and lay siege to Highgarden. That removes the Reach all together from the fight. This is the dominoes affect. One marriage affect the other into the next into the next. By controlling the straights that's causing a natural choke point. Making it impossible for enemy ships to send enforcements by sea, but also its going to damage the economy and slow everything in the realm. Also by holding Highgarden and the rose roads KL is going to starve.

So unless House Velayron and the Targaryen Fleet has the man power to alleviate a blockade against the capital and resupply them it’s not going to be a good day for the capital. Especially if the Arryns muster whatever sea force they have to close the gullet using the fleet out of the Vale and Seaguard. Send men from Stormland to lay siege to the capital.

This is forcing the Naval forces of the crown to have to figure out which is the biggest threat, the capital, dealing with the pillaging in the Reach and alleviate Highgarden. Retake the Mander while sacking Brightwater Keep to allow Highgarden and it’s allies to retreat down the Mander. Or send ships to deal with the siege down in Dorne, Sunspears and the Greenblood. Did I forget the fact that the Redwyne fleet still has a choke hold on Oldtown and the straights. Talk about a trade killer, economy buster and now you have half a million people inside the city walls ready to turn traitor as they are hunger and worried about a sack of the city(Oldtown/KL take your pick). This is a deadly and shitty position that Rickard and his co - conspirators have placed the crown in. A quagmire and cluster fuck all none of Rhaegar’s doing. He's inherited his father’s enemies and a slew of problems of his own namely his sickly wife. Who has a reckless and rash brother.

All the while they still have the North, Trident, Vale and a portion of the Western forces still on your ass. So what’s a prince to do the if the lords decide that Aerys removal isn’t going to solve the problem long term but a regime change is more to their tastes. They would have the crown by the short and curlies and The Silver prince knew it.

From these

We don't know if he just left wife and children in the hands of a mad man. I'm more of the thought that Rhaegar had more sense than to leave what he thought was the prince that was promised with a mad man. Rhaenys if taken really should have been fine. She could have acted as a bridge between the old regime and the new. Like Tywin Lannister said Elia by herself was nothing and should have been spared as well. She can't claim the crown in her own right. One she's a women and next her only really support base would have been Dorne. Not enough to take on the Lannisters, Starks, Tullys, Baratheons, and Arryns. She should have been spared. The only person in the city that was really in jeopardy was Aegon. Not to mention the fact that when the wildfire plot was hatched when he was still in the capital. All the more reason for him to get Aegon out of the city and into the hands of someone that can protect this prince that is suppose to save the fucking world.

Did you think that maybe the abduction was away for Rickard to get Lyanna out of her marriage with Robert while being able to save face. I mean if the crown prince takes the girl, what's the man to do, raise his banners? Over a woman, his bannerman would laugh at him and tell him it's a shame she was kidnapped and forced to become queen, yeah poor Rickard Stark.

The Arryns aren't going to back Robert either as Jon wants power and Rhaegar can offer him the entire realm. Lannister is no longer hand he's going to need someone to rule the realm while he fights his war north of the wall. Can't leave the realm in Tywin's hands that's a scary thought.

So once again that leaves Robert all alone, unless he makes common cause with the Dornish but as I see Rhaegar offering Viserys to Adrianne and making him the official prince of Dragonstone and opening the way for Doran to leave Sunspear to Quentyn what's the point?

DID I FAIL TO MENTION THAT ELIA SPENT THE LAST 6 MONTHS RECOVERING FROM CHILDBIRTH? SO IT BEGS THE QUESTION DID HE WANT TO KILL HIS WIFE TO GET AN HEIR? OR JUST TAKE ANOTHER WIFE AND THE TOURNEY WAS A WAY TO MEET THE MAIDS OF THE REALM?

[Mdoggy]

I like the whole regime change aspect. I always wondered why Rheagar kidnapped/ran away with Lyanna if her father and fiance and fiance's foster father and future sister in law were supporting him to usurp his dad. (and maybe even her future sister in law's brother in law with Lysa plus Jamie ) On top of that all were All lords paramour, directly related to a lord paramour or daughters of lord paramours marrying other lords paramour. So his support would basically come from a tangled up mass of marriage alliances that he was not a part of.

At harenhall I think one of these things happened

A. Lords Paramour realize that getting Rheagar on the throne wont improve anything because he is not married anyone related to them (but marry Cersi to Viserys and then everyone is related someway to the throne.)

B. Lords Paramour chickened out. Did not want to mess with crazy Areys and became content to just wait for him to die. (Maybe saw that he was in rough shape healthwise)

C: Realized the plan would not work cuz Varys would rat them out

D. Maybe wanted to off Ellia to get Rheagar to marry into the family.

​So by kidnapping/ eloping with Lyanna...

A. Rheagar would marry into the Lord Paramour family without haveing to marry a Lannister thinking that it would cement their allience even further, but he was wrong. Horribly wrong. (maybe the older generation was in on it hence the reluctance to raise banners until things were really messed up)

B. Rheagar wanted to keep the super allience from forming

C. Lyanna was a hostage for the rebellion basically I will give your girl back if you kill my father but Robert decided he wanted to be King and killed Rheagar anyway

D. He could have been hiding Lyanna from his dad (if he found out she was the knight of laughing tree and wanted to hurt her). Being the true prince protecting the damsel in distress but Brandon took it the wrong way cuz only a few ppl knew about her being a knight

IMO the rebellion was pre planned with Rheagar's help. It was suposed to be to kill Areys for something. He may have believed that they were fighting the rebellion for him secretly at first per the plan but then ultimately realized that Robert was mad and wanted the throne so he was forced to fight.

This would account for his late entry into the war.

[Mdoggy]

OOOH I have another idea!

What if Lyanna was an excuse to attack Areys?

Rheagar was suposed to frame Lyanna's kidnapping on Aerys then the allience would have an excuse to go to war. But Rheagar was a stupid prince and he wanted a taste of the adventure so he decided to help with the actual kidnapping part. If he was not present it would have looked like the Kingsguard captured Lyanna for an unknown reason and who controls the kingsguard? the king. With Jamie inside the Kingsguard he could lie and say it was Aery's order giving the perfect excuse to kill the king that the smallfolk would appreciate. They would listen to songs about how the mad king kidnapped a lady and the whole land chivalrously rose up in her defense. Rheagar would be the one to ultimately free Lyanna making him part of the good guys and able to cease power.

After the war they would probably wait for Elia to die and marry Rheagar to Cersi

but since Rheagar was spotted kidnapping her, the plan changed and suddenly Rheagar was the reason the country was at war. He was the target fot the rebellion and the rest is history