"Someone told. Someone always tells"

[JonCon's Red Beard]

We always wonder who was the one who told about Arianne's plan: Darkstar? one of her friends? Arys, out of guilt?

I think the ones who told were Oberyn and Doran themselves.

I, Sending Myrcella to Dorne: a gift

Here is a line from Nym (Feast):

"The boy is a bastard born of treason, incest, and adultery, if Lord Stannis can be believed."

We know Stannis sent letters to every important House. It's obvious that the news also reached Dorne. According to the timeline, the letters being sent happened in Davos I (Clash), and Tyrion offers Myrcella much time later, after they are probably get the letter.

I think Doran and Oberyn completely believed Stannis.

First, the Martell brothers are very smart, there is no doubt about it. Look at everything that happened in KL:

Jon Arryn, hand of the King, dies

Stannis abandons his seat in the Council.

Ned Stark, the King's best friend, is named the new Hand.

The King dies

Ned dies

The logical conclusion is that SOMETHING is happening in KL, and the Lannisters are the instigators of that, because nothing happens to them. Later, Stannis, known to be a rightful man, makes accusations of incest? Mmm... who to believe? The rightful guy or the Lannisters? Couldn't be that Jon, Ned and Robert died because Stannis' accusations are true and they found out (could have in Robert's case) and the Lannisters needed them dead?

By the time the letters reach Dorne, there is already a war going on. I think here is when Dorne probably realised they needed to start acting and take a side before the crown MAKE them take a side. Considering the Reach is already involved with Renly, they won't join them. They will also not join Stannis (they also have conflicts with the Stormlands). Their only choice is either join the King (and the Lannisters!) or being neutral. But saying "no" to their King could cost them their lives.

Here is when Oberyn is right by saying Myrcella is a gift. Tyrion knows that while they won't join them (due to them being still mad for Elia's death), they won't go AGAINST the Lannisters now, as they are become allies. And not only that: by accepting the engagement between Myrcella and Trystane, Dorne is saying "we don't believe what Stannis says, we are your friends". Again, they are playing the game they play the best: deceive.

So, up until that moment, Dorne accepts Myrcella as a legitimate child of Robert, and let the Lannisters believe they don't believe the accusations of bastardy, nor they will fight against them. Considering Myrcella is not even 10 years old, it will take at least six years for her to marry Trystane: they have bought time.

II. The Crowning. An empty boast

If Doran and Oberyn probably have realised that indeed Myrcella is a bastard as Stannis say, why crowning her? Why playing that game when they have legitimate Targaryen children waiting for them to be brought back?

Because the Crowning of Myrcella is nothing but an empty boast.

The first time we heard about the plan is during a Tyrion's pov, when he's visited by Oberyn to offer himself as champion

"[...]And with Joffrey in his grave, by Dornish law the Iron Throne should pass next to his sister Myrcella, who as it happens is betrothed to mine own nephew, thanks to you."

"Dornish law does not apply." Tyrion had been so ensnared in his own troubles that he'd never stopped to consider the succession. "My father will crown Tommen, count on that."

"He may indeed crown Tommen, here in King's Landing. Which is not to say that my brother may not crown Myrcella, down in Sunspear. Will your father make war on your niece on behalf of your nephew? Will your sister?" He gave a shrug. "Perhaps I should marry Queen Cersei after all, on the condition that she support her daughter over her son. Do you think she would?"

Despite some popular belief, Oberyn is a cautious man when it's needed, and whatever plans he could have had with Doran, he is private about that because those are the real plans of Dorne. So, throwing something like that, knowing he was going to be heard, it's definitely reckless, even for the Viper. Oberyn knows there are spies everywhere, right? Then, he speaks because he WANTS to be heard.

"I do not know how my sister would choose, between Tommen and Myrcella," he (Tyrion) admitted. "It makes no matter. My father will never give her that choice."
"Your father," said Prince Oberyn, "may not live forever."
[...]"It is not wise to speak such treasons in the Red Keep, my prince. The little birds are listening."
"Let them. Is it treason to say a man is mortal? Valar morghulis was how they said it in Valyria of old. All men must die. And the Doom came and proved it true."

When Tyrion reminds him that Tywin will choose Tommen, Oberyn simply says "well, he won't live forever". And when Tyrion tells him they're probably not alone, Oberyn answers "Is it treason to say a man is mortal?". Yeah. Because that's the only treason that it is being discussed there. Oberyn pretty much detours the discussion on Tywin and dismiss the rest easily, and Myrcella is quickly forgotten until the next Tyrion chapter, when he remembers about it and when Oberyn mentions it, again, casually:

"Plan on a lengthy visit." Prince Oberyn sipped his wine. "You and Doran have many matters of mutual interest to discuss. Music, trade, history, wine, the dwarf's penny . . . the laws of inheritance and succession. No doubt an uncle's counsel would be of benefit to Queen Myrcella in the trying times ahead."

If Varys had his little birds listening, Oberyn was giving them a ripe earful.

Tyrion is left to ponder about it, but Oberyn, who could have discussed it any further, inmediately changes the subject again, this time, to Elia. He just want people to hear that, in case he wins, he's taking Tyrion with him and plot against the throne. Yet, he knows that even if Tywin himself hears, he won't act, as they have Myrcella with him.

But why is he lying? What's the purpose of making himself being heard?

Now I wonder if Oberyn mentioned that plan hoping Varys' spies would hear it (Tyrion freaks out about it) to draw the Lannisters' attention towards Dorne and away from Quentyn and Dany

And I think that Varys did fall in his trap because I believe he immediately contacted Darkstar to stop any plan to crown Myrcella. And Varys doesn't seem to know about Quentyn at all.

I used to believe that Oberyn was planning to actually crown Myrcella, and Doran was probably involved. But this makes more sense.

It also fits with the dynamics betwen Doran and Oberyn: Doran is the grass, and Oberyn is the Viper. I immediately remembered a phrase we have here: "lengua viperina", a viper's tongue. It means not only to lie, but spreads lies with mean intention. Having a serpent's tongue also means to simply lie and cause confusion, and "speak with a forked tongue" means to deliberately say one thing and mean another (wiki meaning). That's exactly what Oberyn did when he talked with Tyrion:

"We might crown Myrcella"
"My father won't allow it"
"He could die any sooner"
"Don't talk about that, it's betrayal"
"It's not betrayal to say your father will die eventually. Myrcella? What Myrcella?".

So, Oberyn was sent to KL with the purpose to cause a distraction while Quentyn was able to part from Dorne without drawing any attention to him or his mission, which is probably Doran's biggest fear. In DwD, Quentyn remembers that his father tells him that the Throne might be watching the Dornish port. Whether he's right or not, no one, not even Varys, seemed to know Quentyn was heading towards Dany. Doran and Obeyrn had been able to beat Varys TWICE.

III: The Snakes fuck up.

Now, how is that Arianne knew about this?

The first Dorne chapter we have is Doran meeting with three of the Sand Snakes. One of them is Tyene, as Jon of the (evil) Dead reminded me.

"[...]Father told me so. He said we had the Imp to thank, for sending us Princess Myrcella. [...]Then we need only hail Myrcella as the First of Her Name, Queen of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and lawful heir to the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros, and wait for the lions to come."
"The lawful heir?" The prince snorted.
"She is older than her brother," explained Tyene, as if he were some fool. "By law the Iron Throne should pass to her."
"By Dornish law."
"When good King Daeron wed Princess Myriah and brought us into his kingdom, it was agreed that Dornish law would always rule in Dorne. And Myrcella is in Dorne, as it happens."
"So she is." His tone was grudging. "Let me think on it."

We know Tyene and Arianne are very close, and they share everything, even men. And, as Doran later explains, they have no secrets to each other. So, it's very likely that Tyene told Arianne about Oberyn's "plan", even though neither of them realised it was a fake plan. At this time, I'm sure Doran has figured it out that's the real plan of the Snakes: the crowning. Whatsoever, she can't arrest Arianne so easily without a reason. Technically, Arianne has done nothing wrong yet.

In the next Dorne chapter we have Arys, and he remembers meeting Doran. Here, I think Doran has already figured out that Arys and Arianne might have "bonded" and he's her tool. Which he is.

"I am sorry I could not see you until now, or meet Princess Myrcella," Martell had said when Arys was admitted to his solar, "but I trust that my daughter Arianne has made you welcome here in Dorne, ser."
"She has, my prince," he'd answered, and prayed that no blush would dare betray him.

Well, Arys, it probably did. I'm sure Doran here was teasing him, looking for a reaction or a confirmation. Whether he had something or not, Doran gives Arys some important information that he knows he'll pass to Arianne, even when Arianne already probably knows: he's leaving and he's taking Myrcella with him, but he gives not a certain date.

"My apologies, ser," Prince Doran said. "I am frail and failing, and sometimes . . . Sunspear wearies me, with its noise and dirt and smells. As soon as my duty allows, I mean to return to the Water Gardens. When I do I shall take Princess Myrcella with me."

This is a role Doran likes to play because he plays it very well: the weak fool. But Doran is not fool. He knows Arys will talk and he will tell Arianne, and they will soon realise that they need to hurry up because Doran might leave at any moment. So, for Doran is a matter of time before Arys and Arianne take Myrcella away from Sunspear. Here, it's only having good spies listening around and follow the conspirators and their moves. They had a poleboat waiting for them. If someone paid the crew to wait for them, then it was easy to intercept them and wait.

Part IV: The Conspirators.

So, that. Thoughts?

[LordQorgyle]

For me it was Dalt simply because pf his reaction when he saw Hotah

[Rhaegal Targaryen]

This was nicely done.

[Minstral]

I do support the notion that the Martell brothers were more aligned in politics then they appeared to be (I don't think it was a bluff from Doran), but I also believe that Oberyn possessed his own agency in this partnership. Being the viper in the grass means that he can't be seen idle or adhere to it at all times. If he is striking he then must to think independently from his brother, and revealing the idea to crown Myrcella to Tyrion may have been just that.

[Pod The Impaler]

I think it was Arys, out of guilt.

If I were to select one of Arianne's friends, I'd say Garin - he seems the sort to be a snitch.

However, it could be that Darkstar was hoping for a confrontation, and engineered one.

[Ser Lepus]

As I said in another thread:

That's an interesting piece. He pretty much is telling her how he learned about her little conspiration: "You told Tyene, who told Nym, who told the Fowler twins, who told...Fryenne, maybe?...who told me...Oh, also, Obara spoke about it while drunk, and Garin told about it to his whole family".

But, if I had to pick a single traitor, it would be Tyene:

My vote goes to Tyene. She's the closest friend of Arianne (so she probably knew about the plot), but she's also a first grade hypocrite who uses her appearance of innocence to mask her murderous poisoning real self.

I bet her friendship to Arianne is just another of her masks.

[Mithras]

I think why Oberyn openly gave songs for the little birds is better explained according to Oberyn Poisoned Tywin theory. Oberyn poisoned Tywin and wanted to be accused of murdering him. In that case, he was going to demand trial by combat and get his fight with Gregor as the champion of House Lannister.

As for who is that someone who told

Arianne, your nature . . . to you, a secret was only a choice tale to whisper to Garin and Tyene in your bed of a night. Garin gossips as only the orphans can, and Tyene keeps nothing from Obara and the Lady Nym. And if they knew . . . Obara is too fond of wine, and Nym is too close to the Fowler twins. And who might the Fowler twins confide in?

The chain ends at Fowler twins. I think Doran’s source was Franklyn Fowler, the father of the Fowler twins and/or Garin and/or Drey and/or Sylva. The "punishments" of Garin, Drey and Sylva stink with conspiracy and plotting.

I also think that Arianne got the notion of crowning Myrcella from Tyene, who got it from Oberyn himself.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

No wonder Doran never told Arianne to make her distrustful. We're also in circles about this :lol:

[You Lie]

It's possible he did figure it out himself, but this part of Doran and Arianne conversation makes me feel someone really told:

"Tell me how you knew my plans."

"I am the prince of Dorne. Men seek my favor."

Someone told."You knew, and yet you still allowed us to make off with Myrcella. Why?"

"That was my mistake and it has proved a grievous one. You are my daughter, Arianne. The little girl who used to run to me when she skinned her knee. I found it hard to believe that you would conspire against me. I had to learn the truth."

-AFFC p.856

The last two sentences of Doran really show a father that was devastated to find out his daughter might have been conspiring against him. Also, if he thought about it himself, it wouldn't be so hard to believe she would do it, right? :)

[You Lie]

Oh and I love the thought of Oberyn "forcing" a fake plan for Varys' birds to hear. Makes perfect sense!

[Julia Martell]

That sounds more or less right.

Are you saying you think Doran approved of Oberyn's whole "duel with the Mountain" thing, thought? That does;t sound like him.

[Ingelheim]

That sounds more or less right.

Are you saying you think Doran approved of Oberyn's whole "duel with the Mountain" thing, thought? That does;t sound like him.

Approved? No.

But killing Tywin was worth the risk, don't you think?

After all, Oberyn owned the Mountain. Only if he weren't such a cocky guy...

[nastydream]

We always wonder who was the one who told about Arianne's plan: Darkstar? one of her friends? Arys, out of guilt?

I think the ones who told were Oberyn and Doran themselves.

The first time we heard about the plan is during a Tyrion's pov, when he's visited by Oberyn to offer himself as champion

"[...]And with Joffrey in his grave, by Dornish law the Iron Throne should pass next to his sister Myrcella, who as it happens is betrothed to mine own nephew, thanks to you."

"Dornish law does not apply." Tyrion had been so ensnared in his own troubles that he'd never stopped to consider the succession. "My father will crown Tommen, count on that."

"He may indeed crown Tommen, here in King's Landing. Which is not to say that my brother may not crown Myrcella, down in Sunspear. Will your father make war on your niece on behalf of your nephew? Will your sister?" He gave a shrug. "Perhaps I should marry Queen Cersei after all, on the condition that she support her daughter over her son. Do you think she would?"

Despite some popular belief, Oberyn is a cautious man when it's needed, and whatever plans he could have had with Doran, he is private about that because those are the real plans of Dorne. So, throwing something like that, knowing he was going to be heard, it's definitely reckless, even for the Viper. Oberyn knows there are spies everywhere, right? Then, he speaks because he WANTS to be heard.

"I do not know how my sister would choose, between Tommen and Myrcella," he (Tyrion) admitted. "It makes no matter. My father will never give her that choice."

"Your father," said Prince Oberyn, "may not live forever."

[...]"It is not wise to speak such treasons in the Red Keep, my prince. The little birds are listening."

"Let them. Is it treason to say a man is mortal? Valar morghulis was how they said it in Valyria of old. All men must die. And the Doom came and proved it true."

When Tyrion reminds him that Tywin will choose Tommen, Oberyn simply says "well, he won't live forever". And when Tyrion tells him they're probably not alone, Oberyn answers "Is it treason to say a man is mortal?". Yeah. Because that's the only treason that it is being discussed there. Oberyn pretty much detours the discussion on Tywin and dismiss the rest easily, and Myrcella is quickly forgotten until the next Tyrion chapter, when he remembers about it and when Oberyn mentions it, again, casually:

"Plan on a lengthy visit." Prince Oberyn sipped his wine. "You and Doran have many matters of mutual interest to discuss. Music, trade, history, wine, the dwarf's penny . . . the laws of inheritance and succession. No doubt an uncle's counsel would be of benefit to Queen Myrcella in the trying times ahead."

If Varys had his little birds listening, Oberyn was giving them a ripe earful.

Tyrion is left to ponder about it, but Oberyn, who could have discussed it any further, inmediately changes the subject again, this time, to Elia. He just want people to hear that, in case he wins, he's taking Tyrion with him and plot against the throne. Yet, he knows that even if Tywin himself hears, he won't act, as they have Myrcella with him.

But why is he lying? What's the purpose of making himself being heard?

I used to believe that Oberyn was planning to actually crown Myrcella, and Doran was probably involved. But this makes more sense.

It also fits with the dynamics betwen Doran and Oberyn: Doran is the grass, and Oberyn is the Viper. I immediately remembered a phrase we have here: "lengua viperina", a viper's tongue. It means not only to lie, but spreads lies with mean intention. Having a serpent's tongue also means to simply lie and cause confusion, and "speak with a forked tongue" means to deliberately say one thing and mean another (wiki meaning). That's exactly what Oberyn did when he talked with Tyrion:

"We might crown Myrcella"

"My father won't allow it"

"He could die any sooner"

"Don't talk about that, it's betrayal"

"It's not betrayal to say your father will die eventually. Myrcella? What Myrcella?".

So, Oberyn was sent to KL with the purpose to cause a distraction while Quentyn was able to part from Dorne without drawing any attention to him or his mission, which is probably Doran's biggest fear. In DwD, Quentyn remembers that his father tells him that the Throne might be watching the Dornish port. Whether he's right or not, no one, not even Varys, seemed to know Quentyn was heading towards Dany. Doran and Obeyrn had been able to beat Varys TWICE.

Now, how is that Arianne knew about this?

The first Dorne chapter we have is Doran meeting with three of the Sand Snakes. One of them is Tyene, as Jon of the (evil) Dead reminded me.

"[...]Father told me so. He said we had the Imp to thank, for sending us Princess Myrcella. [...]Then we need only hail Myrcella as the First of Her Name, Queen of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and lawful heir to the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros, and wait for the lions to come."

"The lawful heir?" The prince snorted.

"She is older than her brother," explained Tyene, as if he were some fool. "By law the Iron Throne should pass to her."

"By Dornish law."

"When good King Daeron wed Princess Myriah and brought us into his kingdom, it was agreed that Dornish law would always rule in Dorne. And Myrcella is in Dorne, as it happens."

"So she is." His tone was grudging. "Let me think on it."

We know Tyene and Arianne are very close, and they share everything, even men. And, as Doran later explains, they have no secrets to each other. So, it's very likely that Tyene told Arianne about Oberyn's "plan", even though neither of them realised it was a fake plan. At this time, I'm sure Doran has figured it out that's the real plan of the Snakes: the crowning. Whatsoever, she can't arrest Arianne so easily without a reason. Technically, Arianne has done nothing wrong yet.

In the next Dorne chapter we have Arys, and he remembers meeting Doran. Here, I think Doran has already figured out that Arys and Arianne might have "bonded" and he's her tool. Which he is.

"I am sorry I could not see you until now, or meet Princess Myrcella," Martell had said when Arys was admitted to his solar, "but I trust that my daughter Arianne has made you welcome here in Dorne, ser."

"She has, my prince," he'd answered, and prayed that no blush would dare betray him.

Well, Arys, it probably did. I'm sure Doran here was teasing him, looking for a reaction or a confirmation. Whether he had something or not, Doran gives Arys some important information that he knows he'll pass to Arianne, even when Arianne already probably knows: he's leaving and he's taking Myrcella with him, but he gives not a certain date.

"My apologies, ser," Prince Doran said. "I am frail and failing, and sometimes . . . Sunspear wearies me, with its noise and dirt and smells. As soon as my duty allows, I mean to return to the Water Gardens. When I do I shall take Princess Myrcella with me."

This is a role Doran likes to play because he plays it very well: the weak fool. But Doran is not fool. He knows Arys will talk and he will tell Arianne, and they will soon realise that they need to hurry up because Doran might leave at any moment. So, for Doran is a matter of time before Arys and Arianne take Myrcella away from Sunspear. Here, it's only having good spies listening around and follow the conspirators and their moves. They had a poleboat waiting for them. If someone paid the crew to wait for them, then it was easy to intercept them and wait.

So, that. Thoughts?

Amazing OP!

But I still don't get what you're trying to say?

That Oberyn was lying about him wanting to crown myrcella?

[Julia Martell]

Amazing OP!

But I still don't get what you're trying to say?

That Oberyn was lying about him wanting to crown myrcella?

They were trying to send Varys guys in Dorne on a wild goose chase after a plot that didn't exist (until Arianne made it anyway) so they wouldn't pay attention to Quentyn leaving for Essos.

It's like a magician's assistant doing a sexy dance so you don't see the magician shoving stud up his sleeve.

I've got to say, I like this idea better than one of her friends betraying her, that made no sense.

Do you think daddy and daughter eventually fessed up about their sources of information?

[Ingelheim]

Amazing OP!

But I still don't get what you're trying to say?

That Oberyn was lying about him wanting to crown myrcella?

Yep. He's saying Oberyn said that because he wanted the Varys' birds to hear him, and draw the attention to him instead of Quentyn.

Tyene told the plan of crowining Myrcella to Arianne, and Arianne did it. Doran knew Tyene knew about it.

[Julia Martell]

And he arrested the Sand Snakes to force Arianne to act too.

It all makes sense now! I feel so much better now. (And it only took us, like, ten years to figure it out.)

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Amazing OP!

But I still don't get what you're trying to say?

That Oberyn was lying about him wanting to crown myrcella?

Yes. Even if he wasn't lying, whatever plan they made probably died when Oberyn died as well.

But, what I mean is that Doran finds out that Oberyn has told Tyene and he assumes, correctly, that Arianne has also been told. Considering he knows the SS are impulsive, he arrests them to stop them from carrying the plan, but he can't arrest Arianne. Doran let Arys know that he's taking Myrcella with him at any moment, so Arianne sees herself forced to act hurriedly, which she does, confirming Doran's fear. So, no one actually "told", Doran figured it out by himself and let Arianne think her friends have betrayed her.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

That's an interesting take JonCon's Red Beard, but I don't think the plan was fake. I think it was a genuine plan of Oberyn that did not have the approval of Doran.

If you think about it, the whole purpose of crowning Myrcella is to bring the war to Dorne, so that they fight it in the way that suits the Dornish best.

What's the possible outcomes of letting Varys know? Increase of the odds to spark the war, most likely...

I believe Oberyn himself told Tyenne so that she knows, just in case, and then she ifluenced Arianne. I suppose that Oberyn had had enough of waiting and didn't have high hopes (or no hopes at all!!!) for his brother's dragon plan and Quentyn's little mission. So he took initiative.

[Minstral]

And he arrested the Sand Snakes to force Arianne to act too.

It all makes sense now! I feel so much better now. (And it only took us, like, ten years to figure it out.)

And it could take another decade when GRRM shows us in his new book that this may not be the case :smug:.

You're train of thought is reasoned out, but I am hesitant to give it that much credence. We will probably have a better idea when Arianne sees her friend amongst the hostages taken from Greenstone.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Yay, you made the thread after all!

I don't have the books at hand right now, but I just want to add that Doran did know about the plan to crown Myrcella, and he deliberately let the plot run its course. I think he, being so cautious, wanted to be absolutely certain that the plot was Arianne's alone and that there was no foreign involvement. And I think he also wanted to take note of Arianne's accomplices