Why the Dothraki can take westeros

[bryden blackfish tully]

Yes I know there have been a hundred threads like this, but going through those I am surprised how many people think this isn't possible and until recently I fully agreed, until I had to make a paper for my history class on the mongol empire.

While doing my research I immediately started to see all the links between these people and the Dothraki, which are pretty much the same as the links between the vikings and the Ironborn: they are essentially the same, except that GRRM's version is dumbed down. But if there would be some small revolutionary as for instance a prophecised great leader who will united the tribes and ride to the end of the world on horseback, the Dothraki would stand a pretty good chance.

The Mongols had a few things, which the Dothraki also have, that made them able to take over the entire world:

- they believed their leader was a somewhat divine fellow (Mongol Genghis = Dothraki Stallion). If there were to be a Stallion, he would not only have military authority, but also religious, providing the loyalty and discipline of his followers.

- they had a shitload of horses: Mongols usually had 2 to 4 horses which would allow them to travel very far very fast and still have fresh mounts for battle

- they could shoot on horseback.

Mongol armies essentially only had two kinds of soldiers: archers on horseback and lancers. The great disadvantage of archers was always that units were easily destroyed by close combat, but putting them on a horse made it easy for them to simply retreat and continue firing.

I think that the Stallion could provide the few changes that would need to be made to transform the stupid Dothraki into dangerous Mongols. The Stallion would need only one small khalasar. If he can tell his warriors to use less arakhs, and more lances and archers, he will be defeating other Khals in no time. The dothraki do not have a very strong military culture, so the Stallion should not have too much trouble slightly reforming Dothraki warfare. If he can simply bring basic things like flanking and lancing into his army and if he chooses his officers wisely, he will unite the Dothraki.

When this is done the invasion of westeros should not prove to be too hard. All major fleets are on the western or southern shores and as they won't need a supply line, they won't need a navy. Lending ships from a willing Free City should not prove to be so tough and a landing on westeros is all that is needed. The middle kingdoms are probably the best choices to start with as these are the most fertile and thus the easiest to raid. If the Dothraki succeeded in reforming their warfare, a typical western medieval army as a Tyrell-Lannister force should be easy to defeat in the mongol-style. If it wouldn't be winter the north might be an effective target as well and even in winter it still would be possible if the Dothraki would have gained more discipline by then. The Vale may be tougher to conquer, as the Dothraki have little experience in rougher terrain, the Arryn army still is at its full force and the supplies are still pretty good there, although it still might be unlikely but possible, if the dothraki can exploit hostilities between Petyr and the mountain houses. The iron islands will be a problem as well, as you simply would need a navy and experienced sailors. The only province that will be truly impossible to take for the Dothraki would be Dorne. It is too arid to support an army without supply train, the Dornish are great with spears and pikes, which is troublesome for a horse-army, Dorne is mountainous in many regions, Dorne is undivided and Dorne has history of expert guerrilla warfare.

So this is why I think Dothraki can conquer most of Westeros, if the Stallion will rise. I think Dany is the Stallion, which might help even more on some points, but that's another discussion.

If you disagree with me on certain points feel free to discuss them here and I will answer what I can.

Thanks for reading

[Minstral]

There are several of these threads that you have already started in the past few minutes.... are you spamming them in hopes that we should take notice or is it a technical issue?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

There are several of these threads that you have already started in the past few minutes.... are you spamming them in hopes that we should take notice or is it a technical issue?

It's a technical issue. Must you automatically assume the worst?

Nice to see you back, bbt! I like this. Be back to give it a more thorough read later.

[Dimples]

Two things to start with:

1. The Dothraki shit themselves at the sight of the 'poison water.'
   
2. The Mongols never really faced a large Western European army (which the Westerosi ones are based on).
   

[hodorisfaclessman]

We have had this thread before so many times

If the dothraki CAN fight with the mongol style, tactics and strategy then yes they are unquestionably a threat, if they fight like they did at the battle of qohor then they are mincemeat.

[Waters Gate]

he Mongols had a few things, which the Dothraki also have, that made them able to take over the entire world:

So why didn't they? :P

One of the most failed Mongol invasions ever was that of Japan. A huge load of resources were spent to make ships to transport enough soldiers only to see them havign difficulty finding a good spot to land and eventually succumb in a storm.

And that was just japan, not a whole continent seperated by sea. The Mongols didn't even have to travel a large distance over water.

And thats just touching one issue. Another one was the Mongol breakdown of war effort everytime a great khan died. All the Westerosi have to do is to snipe the great khal with an arrow and the whole invasion falls apart.

I'm not so sure about how well you scored on youre history paper for what regards Mongol history. I read a fair bit of Mongol history myself. They sure did make a great empire, it also fractured down real easy into a very decentralized empire, and ultimatly expansion stopped for various reasons. Personally i think they have more enough in Essos to make an empire from, far more interresting given that the Dothraki sea can serve as a highway for their armies, and they can strike from it with impunity. Dothraki expansion starts to succumb to overstretch after taking half of Essos.

[Red Wedding Cake]

It's really a matter of getting across the Narrow Sea, which many people point out they call it poison. Before that someone has to rally them to actually go to Westeros, which would be Dany.

So somehow Dany would have to turn the Dothraki ambush we left her at into a new army of Dothraki. She has Drogon the Dragon with her, but the dragon is mortal and they are outnumbered. Even if Dany does win, she can't make an army out of burned corpses. Somehow Dany would have to face Mago, one on one, depose him, and take his army. I see Mago as a recurring character in Winds, so if this did happen it would take a few chapters, leading Dany back to Vas Dothrak and Drogon either fled or fallen.

[Minstral]

It's a technical issue. Must you automatically assume the worst?

Nice to see you back, bbt! I like this. Be back to give it a more thorough read later.

More of a neutral question attempting to discern what the cause is, there is not anything negative with the question in and of itself save for how some might assume it was meant in a negative context. At any rate, one of this guy's other threads was had responses.

[Fire Eater]

The Mongols had armor while the Dothraki don't. Given that, knights could withstand a charge by the Dothraki and perform a counter charge. The Mongols were also skilled at siege warfare while the Dothraki have no skill at it. Also, the lords could practice scorched earth tactics leaving nothing behind for the Dothraki to forage, and no way to resupply with the sea blocking any resupply routes. Dothraki could be useful as mounted archers, and for attacking infantry flanks and rear, but not fully-armored knights.

They would suffer heat stroke and dehydration in Dorne, and I doubt they could get past the Neck or the Mountains of the Moon by land. If they did, they would freeze in the North.

[Waters Gate]

More of a neutral question attempting to discern what the cause is, there is not anything negative with the question in and of itself save for how some might assume it was meant in a negative context. At any rate, one of this guy's other threads was had responses.

I tend to be somewhat suspicious aswell when 4 the smae threads are posted. That said they all came in quick succesion, i would think a trol would post them with more time in between, say when the previous thread had lost interrest.

Lets see how serious a response we get from the OP as follow up as to determine for ourselfs individually whether we want to put our time in this. Eitherway as you noted before the topic has been discussed extensivly before.

I would like to see the op making a case with broad historical knowledge of history to support his case. He read something about the Mongolians and their history, now to support his claims he should convince us that the Dothraki parrallel the Mongols more in one sense, and that the mongols should have been able to mount naval invasions over a fair distance succesfully against a fairly strong medieval opponent.

In that sense i counter argumented with the precedent of Kublai Khan's invasion attempts of Japan, which was practicly the only expansion that the Mongols ever attempted over seas. 2 Invasions were mounted with significant forces and both failed horribly, while the Japanese were quite succesfull in defending their lands despite numerical, technological and tactical disadvantages. Even talking about the forces involved can shed some light on the challengeds the Mongols struggled with.

-The first invasion was done with a force of roughly 30K and required 500 ships, these ships had mostly been of a fairly good type specially build for it by Chinese at an expensive price. The Mongol force failed to land on the mainland, they got caught up in a light storm, and later got boarded by the japanese. When being boarded on ships, those Mongol infantryman were not really at an advantage versus those japanese swordswinging melee fighters.

- The second invasion was done with a force of about 140k troops. Yes kublai Khan was really pissed at the japanese for not bending. These were to be transported over the short channel of water between korea and Japan. For this 4000 ships had been made available, however because the Mongols via the cvhinese could not afford or build a seagoing fleet of warships to transport such a sheer extend of men, 3500 of these ships were commisioned river barges that had a flat hull rather than a deep one. Again the mongols failed to make headway when landing on the japanese mainland, by now the japanese had expected the attack to come and were well fortified. It was also predictable where they would land, that is the southern part of the Japanese mainland, that part that is closest to korea, because the mongols could not possibly send those ships far away. Even then, for the short time they had to opperate in that channel, the Mongolians suffered 2 naval defeats versus the outnumbered Jappanese (Jappanese fleet the again consisted of purely warships), and consequent naval maneuveres to avoid the Japanese made the Mongols get caught in another storm again, destroying the majority of their fleet.

Now think about that 2nd invasion. To be able to transport 140.000 men, it required 4000 ships, and they couldn't possibly get enough seagoing ones for that. Now the Channel between Japan and Korea is rather narrow, i wouldn't dare to send riverbarges over it anyway, let alone make them cross the distance between Essos and Westeros. Oh yeah there is a shortcut by the stepstones, pitty that it's full of pirates, a perfect place for naval ambushes, and that int winds down in a sea that is knows for storms.

So how many men need the Dothraki send across lets say in a first wave to be able to be effective in securing a adequate beachhead? I don't think 140k dothraki can invade all of Westeros, i suppose you could make a few more trips with those 4000 ships to get a few more army's, and 140K might hold a beachhead maybe barrely. I suppose after that youre 4000 ships will need to make plenty of trips in between to supply that force.

So where are the dothraki going to find 4000 seagoing warships? Nowhere i suppose, they don't exist i presume. I'd be surprized if they could get 500, seems like a hughe fleet in asoiaf terms that, but that would bring over 30K armies to be slaughtered piecemeal.

Even if they could, they ould need all the optiam circumstances to win: Not loose loads of ships with men in naval battle's or trough storms, manage to secure a beachhead and supply it, manage to defeat Westerosi armies that are of a fairly diverse composition which might give "mongols" loads of trouble on non-flat terrain or places with defensive force multiplyers. Imho it's all to much of a stratch, and to repeat my most significant objection: where are they going to get all those ships?

[Mithras]

I don't think Dany will bring the Dothraki to Westeros because that would be a political suicide to lose the support of Westerosi. Even if she considers doing such a thing, Tyrion and her other advisers should oppose it. At most a thousand elite riders might be brought and used strategically.

[Mikkel]

The Mongols also had actual tactics (as opposed to the Dothraki way of "Charge! Charge again! Charge a third time! Charge I said! Oh we're all dead"), siege weapons and a number of other things that (so far) there has been no sign of from the Dothraki. Things that are absolutely essential to move from "pillaging" and into "conquering", or "taking" land.

So yes, it's true the Dothraki are a dumbed down version of the Mongols (and other primarily cavalry-based cultures and peoples), but in that dumbing down they've lost something that means comparisons are quite flawed.

The argument that "The Stallion" could easily fix the myriad issues and reform Dothraki warrior culture in a short time seems like handwaving (not to mention that there is no Stallion at the moment, as far as we know).

[CassBlackfyre]

Ok so lets say that the Dothraki do make it to Westeros, completely intact with all their horses and men. Was it 40k in Drogos khalasar? Like others pointed out they would freeze in the North. Cook in Dorne. Be slowed down by mountains and harried by guerilla clans in the Vale. So assuming they land in the stormlands or crownlands, sure they would ride through villages and towns. But how would they go about besieging castles?

The Dothraki would be useful in a big open fight, but conquering a medieval continent with thousands of amoured knights with warhorses, with castles designed to withstand sieges from warcraft? definitely not

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes, 40,000 in Drogo's khalasar.

Westeros got 400,000!

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

The Mongols never conquered Japan.

[The Gallows Knight]

There are a lot of Mountains, hills, crossings, and forests in Westeros in addition to their fortresses many of which would require a protracted siege to take.

The Dothraki are the best and what they do but geography and fighting style play a huge part in their success.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The Dothraki are the best and what they do but geography and fighting style play a huge part in their success.

No, they are not.

Well, actually they are, but that's just because they are the only ones doing it in that region. No competition at all. Nor resistance.

[James Arryn]

Steppe horse-archery and tactics developed over centuries. It's not too divorced from the Huns, the Turks, and so on. Neither Attila nor Temujin dramatically altered the way Huns/Mongols fought, it was more about political consolidation.

I used to think the Dothraki were basically Mongols too, but over time I realized a lot of that was me filling in the blanks with Mongol-modelled assumptions. And there are a LOT of blanks.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Theres a lot of questions left unawnsered about the dothraki due to them being inspired by a mish mash of cultures

They seem to interact a lot with the free cities (we know outside the dothraki sea in the free cities they wear fine silks and perfumes etc) and we see individual dothraki in sellsword companies or signing up to the fighting pits (strong belwas says hes killed lots of them , we can assume these arent slaves as the bells he talked about them having signify they havent been beaten in combat........... til they meet our favourite locust eating pit fighter that is )

[Fire Eater]

I don't think Dany will bring the Dothraki to Westeros because that would be a political suicide to lose the support of Westerosi. Even if she considers doing such a thing, Tyrion and her other advisers should oppose it. At most a thousand elite riders might be brought and used strategically.

That is what I think too. She won't transport hundreds of thousands of Dothraki by ship, but take at most a few thousand of the best Dothraki warriors, the cream of the crop.