Does Meereen HAVE to lose the siege?

[King Tommen Baratheon]

As we wait for the battle of Meereen to actually occur, it's not that hard to see that all the cards are stacked, in favor of Dany/Barristan/Meereen.

What do we know about the Meereenese forces?
-They have the unsullied, and a huge deal is made about how tough those guys are
-Most of the sellswords in the equation will end up flipping for her
-Dany is poised to come swooping back in on dragonback, with her new khalasar.

-The Ironborn are coming to aid Meereen

-Volantis has lots of support for Dany, especially among the R'hllorists and slaves. They also just so happen to be sending a huge slave force to aid her enemies. Hmm.

On the flipside, what does Martin tell us about the Slaver's bay-Volantis alliance?

-They are disorganized
-The generals are ridiculous
-Some of their soldiers are CHAINED together
-They have a vast number of slave-soldiers, with lots of emphasis on how awful they are at real fighting.

It's almost painfully obvious that Meereen will win the siege. Even from the tWoW chapter

it looks like the battle is going pretty darn well for Barristan and co.

It almost seems like Dany can't really loose.
Just like Renly couldn't loose when confronted by Stannis.
Dany has to loose. Meereen has to burn.

If Meereen doesn't loose, Dany still has something to keep her in Slaver's Bay. She will need to rebuild, and establish some stable form of government, something it's already been proven that she can't do quickly, or efficiently. Tyrion might be of some help with that, but he can't single-handedly "fix" all her problems in Meereen.
I don't know if GRRM has made progress in his untangling of his "Meereenese knot", but Dany has a Meereenese knot of her own, one that she can't untangle.
Alexander the Great had a knot of his own. One that he couldn't untangle. He destroyed it, with a sword.
If Meereen looses, Dany won't have an option to stay in Essos. She will have to West.

I'm not really sure where I'm going with this, except to say that something has to go wrong for Meereen. I'm not going to claim to have any clue what it is, but something will go wrong. Very wrong. :devil:

Either that, or Tyrion becomes a dragonrider, helps establish peace in Meereen which lets Dany go to the Wall to save the world from the "evil" Others and marry Jon, and lives happily ever after. Yuck. :ack:

ETA: I don't necessarily mean Dany will lose, I mean to propose that the Pro-Dany forces (of Barristan, etc.) will lose the battle.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I don't think Dany will be involved in the battle at all, she has her own things to take care of in Vaes Dothrak. I think the twist will be the Shavepate taking control of the city and locking Baristan and Vic and Tyrion out.

[King Tommen Baratheon]

I would not at all be surprised to see Tyrion become a dragonrider on Viserion. There is quite a bit of foreshadowing to imply this, although a fair amount of that rests on the assumption that he's Aerys' kid, which I'd rather was not true, let alone suspect.

I don't think it's that obviously stacked in Dany's favour, Barristan in particular seems quite grim about it. You're making some pretty spurious assumptions,

- That the sellswords will change sides

- That Dany will make it back in time, and have a Khalasar too.

- That the Ironborn will not attempt to capture Dragons (and thereby come into conflict with Daenerys)

- That the Unsullied are as strong a force as described. There's been a lot of discussion on this, and iirc the consensus is that they are essentially Greek hoplites albeit weaker. Against a determined enemy (granted, not necessarily sellswords' best trait) they wouldn't excel.

This is actually somewhat similar to Renly and Stannis, given that Victarion has a magical means to completely take the legs (or wings) out from under her. Not convinced it will play out like that, however.

I agree there is lots of foreshadowing to Tyrion riding Viserion, but Tyrion's character is partially defined by being physically weaker, and a dwarf. That was a huge driving force in his choice to arm himself with words and wit. Giving him a dragon would take a lot of that disadvantage away, just as making him actually a Targ would totally cheapen his killing of Tywin. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a dragon, but I'd rather it not happen. :(

I'm not saying the sellswords will actually switch sides, I'm saying that to the reader (or at least to me when I was reading it), it looks a lot like they will. Dragons can give the Tattered Prince Pentos much quicker than Ghiscari Slavers might be able to.

Even if Vic gets a Dragon captured, he isn't going to aid the Yunkai in the fight.

I don't think Dany will win (and if she does, it won't be a clean, nice victory), I'm proposing that if we take it at face value, it looks like she might. Looking at just the presented facts, without deeper speculation, she has a huge advantage.

Yes, the sellswords might not switch, and yes the Unsullied aren't supersoldiers (although they are presented as such).

If we look deeper into the issue, it's easier to see how it was constructed, so that it appears Dany will win (despite Barristan's grim demeanor), but there's a plethora of things that can, and probably will go wrong and mess stuff up for her, possibly resulting in her loosing the battle, and being forced out of SB.

[Shadow Cat 75]

I wouldn't say Dany loses the battle but I don't think it will be a crushing defeat of the slavers either. Likely when the Iron Born blow the horn it will cause alot of panic in the ranks, horses and men will break and run. I don't think that the horn will control the dragons only summon them and then they may burn the Iron Fleet which would be a massive blow. However the slavers have lost a lot and will likely pull back to regroup.

I believe that the slavers will likely pull back to the nearest slave city, Yunkai I believe is the nearest. They have shown that they are willing to pull back and wait just like they did when they let their slaves go instead of fighting Dany only to rearm for the next round.

On the march back that is when I believe the final blow will hit, they will see a massive dusk cloud in the distance and believe correctly that it is the Dothraki, only to see a giant black Dragon flying above the Khalasar. I believe this because it will take Dany time to get the Dothraki down to slaver bay and the battle is likely in the first part of the book.

[King Tommen Baratheon]

I don't think Dany will be involved in the battle at all, she has her own things to take care of in Vaes Dothrak. I think the twist will be the Shavepate taking control of the city and locking Baristan and Vic and Tyrion out.

I agree that one of the things that might turn the battle against Barristan would be someone working against them from inside Meereen, but I think it might be the Green Grace. Regardless of who it is, there's definitely been some sort of set up for something to go wrong, and Meereen to lock it's gates.

Little things like that and Dany maybe not going back, and as mentioned by Leap, things like the sellswords not switching, and the Unsullied being not as good as presented, could very easily make it so Dany's people loose.

It looks good for her, but things can totally go wrong, and most likely will.

[juanml82]

I think Dany will not return to Mereen in time for the battle, if she returns at all and only the Volantene can turn the tide in favor of the slavers.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I don't think Dany will be involved in the battle at all, she has her own things to take care of in Vaes Dothrak. I think the twist will be the Shavepate taking control of the city and locking Baristan and Vic and Tyrion out.

This is very likely, I think, especially because now that the Unsullied and Barristan are outside Meereen, the Brazen Beasts are the only force within the city, and they belong to the Shavepate.

If that's true, then that bastard really is the Meereenese Petyr Baelish, pitting people against each other

[larastone]

Dany isn't returning to Mereen at all IMO.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

The problem with (mostly) all of those situations you are presenting is that Dany will look, at the end, like the poor damsel in distress that had to be rescued by the stronger smarter older men.

[shmewdog]

I predict that Drogon will be declared the Stallion that Mounts the World by the Dosh Khaleen, and Dany will be named Khal of Khals because she is its rider. She will return to Mereen after having united the Dothraki Khalasars together and utterly smash everyone.

[King Tommen Baratheon]

The problem with (mostly) all of those situations you are presenting is that Dany will look, at the end, like the poor damsel in distress that had to be rescued by the stronger smarter older men.

How? I'm just illustrating that those are the "obvious" outcomes, con looking at the twists and betrayals and whatnot that might transpire, and then saying that if we do include those twists (the unsullied falling, Dany not going back to Meereen in a timely manner, Vic taking a dragon) than the battle is going to go badly for Barristan's side. Dany doesn't actually have much to do with it. She probably won't be there, because otherwise she'd be able to WIN the battle, and I don't think the battle will be won. But that is not her fault.

She is FAR from a damsel in distress. Her return is a huge plus to the Meereenese cause, and if that doesn't happen, and her people loose, Dany won't be a damsel in distress at all.

If Barristan gets locked out of the city, and the battle does go south, with Meereen falling into pro-slaver hands, I'd actually say that makes Barristan more of a stereotypical "damsel in distress" that has to be rescued by Dany. Or not rescued, should she not get back by then.

I don't think I communicated what I meant very well with the OP. I was trying to say that those scenarios, those things which are presented to us as fact, won't happen, because Meereen needs to fall for Dany to be able to go back to Westeros- and as such anything that can go "wrong" will. But that doesn't make her look like a damsel in distress.

[King Tommen Baratheon]

Dany isn't returning to Mereen at all IMO.

Especially if there is no Meereen to return to :devil:

If it's destroyed, she can unite the dothraki tribes/go to westeros/go to asshai/whatever else without having a "I should be doing something else (ruling in meereen) thought pattern" and rather have a "What went wrong in meereen and how can I not do that later" reflective thought pattern, which IMO would be a lot more beneficial for character development, and general ruling ability.

Should she turn "mad queen" on us, then there is a big, relevant and personal catalyst. If meereen isn't destroyed/lost to the slavers, there can't be that catalyst to make her evil, should she go that route. (Not saying that she will though. Just saying that meereen being lost opens up a lot more narrative possibilities in regards to her character)

[Lord Lyman]

Irrelevant comment ahead.

Dany can't "loose" the battle of Mereen, but she can lose the battle.

Yes grammer police but this is one I see everywhere and it annoys me very much. Loose is already a word and it is the opposite of tight. Lose is the opposite of win.

You may now resume your regularly scheduled topic.

[King Tommen Baratheon]

Irrelevant comment ahead.

Dany can't "loose" the battle of Mereen, but she can lose the battle.

Yes grammer police but this is one I see everywhere and it annoys me very much. Loose is already a word and it is the opposite of tight. Lose is the opposite of win.

You may now resume your regularly scheduled topic.

Oh my. At first I thought it was just a typo, but then I noticed I've said loose instead of lose almost every time.

I feel like quite an idiot, thanks for the correction. ._.

I guess sleep is important after all....

[Lord Lannister]

It's hard to say how things will go. If it was a straight up battle between Dany's forces and the Yunkai, it would seem to favor them short of something drastic happening. The Second sons defecting, along with others would seem enough to turn the tide of the battle, since Dany's troops are of higher quality than the slavers. The real wild card are the Ironborn. They are there for Dany's dragons but

in the sample chapter of Winds, the attack the Yunkai.

It could be the Ironborn are just covering Victarion so he can get close enough to the dragon's to blow his horn. If it works they could suddenly switch sides as they pull out or they could decide to... test.. the dragons abilities.

[Mithras]

Dany will not be in SB for a long time. It will be upto Victarion and Tyrion to win the Battle and deal with the Volantene Fleet. They will solve the Meereenese Knot, not Dany. Dany will be busy in solifidying her position with inter-Dothraki Wars.

[Good Guy Garlan]

The problem with (mostly) all of those situations you are presenting is that Dany will look, at the end, like the poor damsel in distress that had to be rescued by the stronger smarter older men.

Kind of like Cersei, Sansa and Arianne? I see your point, though. The reason why I liked Barristan's chapters is because he's not magically fixing Dany's mistakes, but rather making things worse (if we believe the Shavepate is playing him).

Of course, unlike Barristan, Tyrion and Victarion would be the right people to fix the Slaver's Bay mess, albeit in different ways. Tyrion has experience playing the game, and Vic would just cut the game in two, but I still want to see Dany getting out of the hole she dug herself, in her own way

[The Mother of The Others]

The boys can't do tooooo good of a job patching the humpty dumpty mess together, though, cuz then Stormy wouldn't have any legitimacy when she returned and people would opt for the new non-Stormy government and that'd be that. So I think Humpty still has to be taking a bit of a Dump when she returns with the true legitimate lordship of the land riding alongside her. But it is an interesting question, is she being cleared out of town for the boys to do their thing, or is she going to rush right back into the fray because the boys' plots are deeply dependent on interacting with her?

[King Tommen Baratheon]

The boys can't do tooooo good of a job patching the humpty dumpty mess together, though, cuz then Stormy wouldn't have any legitimacy when she returned and people would opt for the new non-Stormy government and that'd be that. So I think Humpty still has to be taking a bit of a Dump when she returns with the true legitimate lordship of the land riding alongside her. But it is an interesting question, is she being cleared out of town for the boys to do their thing, or is she going to rush right back into the fray because the boys' plots are deeply dependent on interacting with her?

Or, if the boys completely lose Meereen to the enemy (or the sons of the harpy), then she can get out of SB without ever having to be a "damsel". As soon as she is "cleared out of town" things are going to fall apart even more.

I don't think Barristan and Vic and Tyrion are going to be able to save the city, without Dany; and if she doesn't return during the battle, well it's not looking too good for the ex-slaves in Meereen.

[Good Guy Garlan]

The boys can't do tooooo good of a job patching the humpty dumpty mess together, though, cuz then Stormy wouldn't have any legitimacy when she returned and people would opt for the new non-Stormy government and that'd be that. So I think Humpty still has to be taking a bit of a Dump when she returns with the true legitimate lordship of the land riding alongside her. But it is an interesting question, is she being cleared out of town for the boys to do their thing, or is she going to rush right back into the fray because the boys' plots are deeply dependent on interacting with her?

Well, GRRM did say her and Tyrion will be apart for most of WoW, so either Tyrion goes away somewhere (maybe to push his claim with the Second Sons?) and Stormy (LOL) returns, or Tyrion stays for a bit on Meereen while she gathers the Dothraki or something