U.S. Politics: John Boehner Discovers Teh Intrawebs

[zelticgar]

Have you ever applied for disability zelticgar? Do you have any idea what the process is like? What information is required, both from the applicant and medical records? From everything you've been saying here, all your anecdotes about poor people gaming the system, I'd guess that your own attitudes about this matter more than what numbers and the research actually says about the issue. Here's a hint it doesn't support your position, even in the milder form.

Not personally but I have two close relatives that have gone through the process. Its irrelevant anyway. I'm not supposed to have an opinion because I'm not on disability? I guess based on your opinion there is no valid reason to debate fraud in the system. I personally dont have a problem helping out people that are in a tough spot but the idea that 10 million people are on disability and we cant have a conversation about fraud seems a little weird...

[Inigima]

Lookit, zelt, this is the straight dope. We don't resolve facts by debate, we resolve facts by research. This was a concern, so we studied it. It turns out that while there is the occasional cheat, it is mostly a nonissue. If you want to debate whether we should fuck over a ton of disabled people because a few people are cheating the system, fine, but that's a different argument.

The whole point of research is to get information to use in making informed decisions. You don't get to ignore the research because you "just know" better.

[Ramsay Gimp]

For the record, I agree that Paul's disability remarks were misleading and wrong. I actually think he misses the point by focusing on "cheats" or "frauds" in the welfare system. His old man would have attacked the welfare system directly rather than argue for better management or slight cuts

But when you guys call him racist or misrepresent his views (as several did with the judicial activism comments), expect to be called out

[The Fallen]

Speaking of Republicans caring about the poor, Ol' Mitt wants to help them. He said so at the Republican National Committee's winter meetings.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/17/mitt-flips-on-the-very-poor.html

First, we have to make the world safer, Romney said. Second, we have to make sure and provide opportunity for all Americans regardless of the neighborhood they live in. And finally, we have to lift people out of poverty. If we communicate those three things effectively, the American people are going to be with usbe with our nominee and with our candidates across the country.

The article's main point is that Americans are more sympathetic about the poor and thus Mitt is recreating himself.

Recent polling shows a more compassionate country when it comes to the poor. A June 2014 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed fewer people blamed the poor for their financial situation. When asked which is the bigger cause of poverty today?, 46 percent of those polled attributed poverty to circumstances beyond peoples control as opposed to 44 percent who blamed people not doing enough. In 1995, 60 percent blamed people not doing enough for their poverty, while 30 percent blamed circumstances beyond peoples control.

So Mitt, and maybe the rest of the party, will at least pay lip service to the poverty problem before throwing you off welfare and disability.

[zelticgar]

Lookit, zelt, this is the straight dope. We don't resolve facts by debate, we resolve facts by research. This was a concern, so we studied it. It turns out that while there is the occasional cheat, it is mostly a nonissue. If you want to debate whether we should fuck over a ton of disabled people because a few people are cheating the system, fine, but that's a different argument.

The whole point of research is to get information to use in making informed decisions. You don't get to ignore the research because you "just know" better.

Number of people on active disability in 2004 - 6,201,362

Number of people on active disability in 2014 - 8,954,518

44% increase in 10 years.

In this period the US population increased 8%.

I think it is fair to say Rand Paul exaggerates when asserting half the people claiming back injuries and mood disorders are scamming but it is just as wrong to assert it is only an occasional issue.

[all swedes are racist]

Number of people on active disability in 2004 - 6,201,362

Number of people on active disability in 2014 - 8,954,518

44% increase in 10 years.

In this period the US population increased 8%.

I think it is fair to say Rand Paul exaggerates when asserting half the people claiming back injuries and mood disorders are scamming but it is just as wrong to assert it is only an occasional issue.

That shows a large jump in the number of people on "active disability" (which, can you clarify how that is defined?), but little else. Maybe Americans worked harder/more injurious jobs? Maybe there has been a shift in defining disability, or it's easier to be placed on/harder to be kicked of the rolls of active disability?

Shit, maybe it could have to do with this massive war type thing creating a significant number of injured or disabled veterans?

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Maybe baby boomers getting old and infirm.

[Ormond]

Maybe baby boomers getting old and infirm.

Precisely. As this link shows, the increase in people on disability is largely explained by

1. The aging of the baby boomers -- people over 50 are much more likely to become disabled, and the proportion of workers over 50 is now a lot larger

2. The increase of women in the workforce -- in previous generations it was rare for women to have worked for pay long enough to be eligible for disability, but that has now changed

3. The rise in the full retirement age from 65 to 66 -- almost 5% of everyone on disability in 2011 was aged 65, people who a few years ago would have been counted among regular social security beneficiaries instead of as being "on disability". As the full retirement age is soon rising to 67, that will become even more of a factor.

The above three points, combined with the idea I've heard that state government agencies are putting more effort into encouraging anyone who might be eligible for SS disability to apply for it for their own financial reasons, would seem to explain the increase in persons on SS disability much better than postulating any huge increase in fraud.

http://mediamatters.org/research/2013/06/28/right-wing-media-miss-the-facts-on-disability-f/194669

[zelticgar]

RRL - those numbers are from the Social Security Admin site . I supposed it is defined by people getting disability benefits at the end of whatever period they measure. Not sure if it is end of year or an average over a year.

The table is interesting. You can see a decrease in applicants over the last few years. Not sure if that is because the most persistent cases were accepted or if people just give up. It is worth noting that on average 60% of the cases are rejected. I dont know how many people re-apply (that would be an interesting stat) but i have to guess that the people that are rejected must take other actions at the state level to obtain benefits in some other way. It is also worth noting that there are about 3 million dependents on SSI or SS Disability in addition to the 9 million workers that qualify so the number is really 12 million.

[zelticgar]

Ormond - you could have something there. 45 to 64 year old population grew by 20 million from 2000 to 2010. There is an increase in 18 to 24 year old group in the same period by 3 or 4 million but that is not close enough to offset the increase in baby boomer population. I still think there is enough fraud going on in the system that goes beyond the "a few people taking advantage" stage.

[maarsen]

Maybe baby boomers getting old and infirm.

I have a back problem. I have had it since I was 13 when I was diagnosed with scoliosis. At the time apart from a bit of back pain it really did not stop me from doing anything. I did see a world renowned scoliosis specialist in my mid twenties and I was told that when I got older, as in over 50 I would start to have problems with my back. Now that I am approaching 60 I am having problems. I have a lot more pain. My activities are starting to be restricted and I am not sure I will be able to work till retirement age. During my working life I have never been on any type of social assistance. Yeah, us baby boomers are ripping off the system

[Trebla]

Ormond - you could have something there. 45 to 64 year old population grew by 20 million from 2000 to 2010. There is an increase in 18 to 24 year old group in the same period by 3 or 4 million but that is not close enough to offset the increase in baby boomer population. I still think there is enough fraud going on in the system that goes beyond the "a few people taking advantage" stage.

Yeah and I don't see anyone arguing against that point.

I'll admit I take this whole thing personally. I can't work. I was sent home in 2003 because my blood pressure was 170/120 because I was in so much pain and my employer thought I would have a stroke. I went to see doctors, got steroid injections, tried PT but I couldn't make it back and once my short term disabilty ended, they denied my long term disability with a pre-existing condition clause and I was fired. I had two more back surgeries and finally was able to go back to work part-time. Then my upper back sytarted bothering me with a combo of 3 bulging discs and fibomyalgia.I work hard every day, though, stretching it all out, getting on a treadmill when my hips and back ache and I have shooting sciatic pain down my leg. I see a pain management doctor and a pain management psychologist regularly. I'm doing everything I'm supposed to be doing..

So again, are we supposed to fuck over people like me to go after the people that are cheating the system?

[DanteGabriel]

So again, are we supposed to fuck over people like me to go after the people that are cheating the system?

Yes, because someone somewhere saw someone else pay for Skittles with an EBT card and then jump into a Mercedes. I think that's the crux of the argument.

[zelticgar]

So again, are we supposed to fuck over people like me to go after the people that are cheating the system?

Trebla - the point of the original post was that Rand Paul was incorrect in his assertion that half the back pain/ mood disorder SSI/SSD recipients were fraudulent. His numbers were clearly inflated, i admit that. All I am pointing out is that while his total numbers are wrong, there is enough statistical evidence showing that something is going on with the programs and it is a fair assertion to make that there is a fair amount of fraud involved based on the increase in the program participants.

I get that you take this personally but it is not a matter of fucking you over to combat fraud. If you have a legit issue you should not lose much sleep over it.

[Trebla]

I get that you take this personally but it is not a matter of fucking you over to combat fraud. If you have a legit issue you should not lose much sleep over it.

Unfortunately there has been way too much rhetoric like this from one side of the aisle for it to not worry me. Part of me does think it's just good ol' red meat to throw at the masses to rile them up. Then again, if they get to choose between cutting social programs and raising taxes on corporations, I know damn well what they will choose.

[lokisnow]

I dont know if I completely disagree with Rand Paul's assertion. I've seen enough anecdotal evidence of people gaming the system - the deadbeat brother-in-law doctor shopping for back surgery until he finally gets approved for disability, the lady in front of me at the grocery store buying M&M's and Skittles with the EBT card and hopping into her mercedes, the period when I worked at a bank and dealt with a lady coming in to cash a 15k check using her welfare card as ID... Anecdotes are fine but even the SS Stats show an uptick on the rolls over the last 15 years 5 million to 8 million (and keep in mind this only focuses on the primary applicant, not familiy members who also collect if the primary applicant is approved.

I would also not be too quick to assert that it is tough to get on the rolls. The rejection rate is well over 50% but keep in mind that you can apply multiple times. I know people that have applied multiple times and finally got a lawyer that knew the system and the dials to turn in order to get on.

I understand that it is easy to just dismiss Rand Paul's assertion based on the theory that Republicans look down on poor people as a default reaction but it is a dangerous position. There is a culture of reliance on government that can pass from generation to generation. I've seen it with my own extended familiy and breeds nothing but pain and struggle. You may not like the messenger but the point is a valid one that should be debated and not dismissed.

One of my mom's coworkers has won the lottery four times (prizes ranging from 5000 to 15000).

Clearly that means that lots of people win big lottery prizes multiple times, or that there is fraud going on.

If we know that disability fraud is < 1% and you personally know five people defrauding the system, that must mean there are many people who do not know anyone defrauding the system. I don't know anyone rigging the system, so we've already pushed the average down using only a sample of two people.

It sounds like you are just an outlier, count yourself lucky to be so statistically odd.

[DanteGabriel]

Trebla - the point of the original post was that Rand Paul was incorrect in his assertion that half the back pain/ mood disorder SSI/SSD recipients were fraudulent. His numbers were clearly inflated, i admit that. All I am pointing out is that while his total numbers are wrong, there is enough statistical evidence showing that something is going on with the programs and it is a fair assertion to make that there is a fair amount of fraud involved based on the increase in the program participants.

I get that you take this personally but it is not a matter of fucking you over to combat fraud. If you have a legit issue you should not lose much sleep over it.

And why is it that a Profile in Courage like Rand Paul spends more time beating up on purported welfare and disability cheats, who get a few thousand dollars a month out of the system at most, while not giving a shit about corporate cheats who tanked the global economy, cost us billions, and continue to hoard the benefits of the recovery to themselves while wages for everyone else stagnate?

Why does Rand Paul care more about someone getting disability that they may not deserve than about, say, West Virginia mining companies that constantly flout safety regulations, get their workers killed, and laugh off the fines?

Of course there's some fraud in the system. There's fraud in every system. Why obsess over small fry when the biggest and most harmful offenders continue to skate? Because Rand Paul, Hero of the Rugged Individualists, is just as much of a cynical self-interested trough-wallower as the rest of them, preying on the same ugly poor-blaming impulse that the rest of his shitheel party uses.

[Wise Fool]

Ron Paul Libertarianism is the party of zero personal responsibility. Witness every defense of the Ron Paul Newsletter racism ever: it wasn't his fault, he didn't know, it was somebody else, he didn't know, even though it's his own publication bearing his name, wah, not his fault wah. Whatever. I'll be more impressed with any political brand if they can ever hold to their own alleged principles, which is to say I will never be impressed with any political brand.

[TrackerNeil]

Ron Paul Libertarianism is the party of zero personal responsibility. Witness every defense of the Ron Paul Newsletter racism ever: it wasn't his fault, he didn't know, it was somebody else, he didn't know, even though it's his own publication bearing his name, wah, not his fault wah. Whatever. I'll be more impressed with any political brand if they can ever hold to their own alleged principles, which is to say I will never be impressed with any political brand.

The real kicker is that if RP had just said, "Look, in the past I associated myself with some bad ideas, and I now wish I hadn't. I'm sorry" I could accept that. I'd still never vote for Ron Paul, but I'd consider the issue put to bed. However, his insistence upon dissembling makes me think that not only did he approve of those ideas then, he approves of them now.

By the way, I am totally digging post-election Obama, who's now calling for new taxes on the wealthy. Although this proposal will go nowhere in the GOP Congress, it's nice to see the president staking out progressive positions that draw a clear distinction between Democrats and Republicans.

[The Fallen]

Speaking of Ron Paul wanting to have it both ways:

"Two days after the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity republished a column suggesting that last weeks terror attack on the satirical French newspaper Charlie Hebdo was a false flag operation, the former congressman himself weighed in on the conspiracy theory Friday, saying his group ran the column simply to pose some questions about the official version of events.

In the column, paleoconservative crank and Reagan administration Treasury Department official Paul Craig Roberts cast doubt on the notion that the Paris attack truly stemmed from Muslim anger over Charlie Hebdos cartoons lampooning Islam and the Prophet Muhammad. Roberts, a notorious 9/11 truther, speculated that the U.S. government executed the attack to punish France for its independent foreign policy, citing its vote at the United Nations to recognize Palestine as a state and French President Francois Hollandes recent call to ease sanctions on Russia.

Clearly, France was showing too much foreign policy independence. The attack on Charlie Hebdo serves to cow France and place France back under Washingtons thumb, Roberts wrote."

Do you believe this theory Ron Paul?

"Appearing on Newsmax TV today, Paul defended Roberts column, arguing that neither he nor Roberts actually believe the attack was a false flag. They just Have Some Questions.

I think he suggested it, he wanted a discussion and he has some really good things in there, Paul said. Its a shame that the media doesnt pick up and say what about this chief investigator of this event committed suicide right in the middle of it? I have no idea whats going on there but that to me is big stuff."

ETA:

http://www.salon.com/2015/01/16/ron_paul_defends_insane_charlie_hebdo_conspiracy_theory_im_just_trying_to_get_the_truth_out/