[ADwD spoliers] Cersei's Trial and other predictions

[Ser Lich]

OK, we are reasonably sure "Robert Strong" aka Frankengregor will champion Cersei, but who will champion the Faith?

My money is on a certain monk who has recently embraced the faith who (when healthy and sober) can rival any swordsman in the realm.

The septons ask for the Seven's blessing, and Sandor Clegane steps out to declare (cue Pat Benatar) "I am the warrior".

He wins, Cersei is imprisoned, Tommen is dethroned and his marriage annulled, Aegon returns, marries Margaery, they all live happily ever after.

Tommen becomes Lord of Castlery Rock with Tyrion his regant (Jaime is imprisoned too).

Dany is given Dragonstone or just continues to chase her tail in the East.

Stannis is given back Storm's End for his service to the Realm.

Rickon gets Winterfell with the Blackfish his regant, will eventually marry Wylla Manderly.

Edmure gets the Riverlands back.

Sansa pushes LF out the moondoor after she falls in love and marries Harrold the Heir (after LF kills Robert)

Ramsey Bolton is given to Victarion and the Iron fleet for them to "use like a woman" as GRRM put it.

[Always_En_Garde]

It was Patty Smyth and Scandal that did The Warrior.

[Jem]

While I do think that eventually Sandor will face Gregor and defeat him, I don't think it will happen at Cersei's trial. I want the fun of seeing Cersei alive and well and free to wreak havoc for a while longer yet.

[Cirdan]

While I do think that eventually Sandor will face Gregor and defeat him, I don't think it will happen at Cersei's trial. I want the fun of seeing Cersei alive and well and free to wreak havoc for a while longer yet.

I think that each and every chapter of the next books needs one thing over everything else: resolution. At least if GRRM really hopes to finish the series with two novels. The storyline is allready very complicated and the economy of the tale cannot suffer other distractions. So, the story needs a climatic resolution for the Cersei's storyline and all the charachters involved. If she is brought back at the position she was at the beginning of AFfC, it would feel boring and pointless.

It's hard to guess how the scenario will play out, since Martin allways like to play with our expectations. I don't even know if we will see the trial at all. But I hope that we will read a tight series of chapters that will bring Maggy's prophecy to fruition, while giving us a deserved end to other "secondary" storylines (the Cleganes, Qyburg, Brienne and Jaimie, the rise of the militant faith, Margarey and Cersei, the Tyrrel closed council, etc.).

[Lummel]

Hmm. Not sure any more if there will be a trial.

Three things; Cersei's walk of shame has removed her from the High Septon's power, the death of Kevan is going to create a political vacuum in Kings Landing (will cersei try to fight it out or will the Tyrells just take over?) and then there is the arrival of Aegon. Any of these allow Cersei to flee Kings Landing and head back to the Lannister power base in the West - why stick around and risk a trial?

[3CityApache]

why stick around and risk a trial?

Because Cersei keeps faith (pun intended) that UnGregor is unbeatable (and not so unreasonable faith, by the way)? And because her greed for power is much stronger than worries of her personal safety.

[Sforzando]

Even if she wins I'm not sure she'll get her reputation back among lords or laymen after that walk of shame.

Supposing Sandor wins (I love the idea of him fighting Gregor at the trial, but I don't see how he can possibly win, Gregor can't freaking die if he's undead), Tommen is declared a bastard and is dethroned along with Cersei. If there is anyone left in Westeros who gives a rat's ass about the laws of succession, the next heir ought to be Stannis and he could find some support as he marches south from his victory at Winterfell.

But the Tyrells won't stand for that and they'll probably have to declare Margaery Queen Regnant. Cue civil war and a very real vacancy on the throne which Aegon will win easily. (Stannis could easily be declared a traitor and invalidated, in which case there is absolutely no legitimate heir at all)

The Tyrells are benefiting from the status quo. They are in charge of the realm. If Cersei loses her trial they lose too, don't forget, so it's in their interest to ensure that she wins. This would restore the status quo and ensure that Aegon has a considerable threat to face when he comes and claims the throne.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

Because Cersei keeps faith (pun intended) that UnGregor is unbeatable (and not so unreasonable faith, by the way)? And because her greed for power is much stronger than worries of her personal safety.

Exactly. The concept of a tactical retreat would not fit that well with Cersei's usual approach to things - she wants to stay as close as possible to the center of power (and her son as well). If she is threatened, her impulse is to strike first and strike hard, not to defend or evade and certainly not to fall back and regroup. I'm not saying that she could never be forced to do so, but she will by strongly biased against actions that go against her style of play and consider them only if the alternative would be so blatantly doomed that even she would recognize it.

She was in a similar situation when confronted by Ned about the incest: She was given the opportunity to retreat to safety but instead went for a everything-or-nothing confrontation -- and if Littlefinger had betrayed her instead of Eddard, things would have gotten badly for her. But she thought that she had the edge with the City's Watch (and she did), just as she now thinks she has the edge with Ser Robert Strong (and she probably does). To her, "You win or you die" is not only the maxim for the whole war, but for every single major engagement as well.

[irishtemper]

I don't think Un-Gregor will have to lose for Cercei to be completely screwed...all that has to happen is he gets his helm knocked off or something else that reveals he is a monster and then the jig is up for Qyburn and Cercei

[Tini]

I don't think Un-Gregor will have to lose for Cercei to be completely screwed...all that has to happen is he gets his helm knocked off or something else that reveals he is a monster and then the jig is up for Qyburn and Cercei

Only for Qyburn. Cersei'd claim that she didn't know what Qyburn was up to. She'll have him killed, just to make sure that he doesn't contradict her story. But even if he survives, his position will be very similar to that of the bard who got blamed for Lysa Tully's death. Who would believe him? The second Ser Robert Strong is revealed as a monster, Qyburn will go into hiding, leaving Cersei free to tell the tale as she sees fit.

[Lummel]

Exactly. The concept of a tactical retreat would not fit that well with Cersei's usual approach to things - she wants to stay as close as possible to the center of power (and her son as well). If she is threatened, her impulse is to strike first and strike hard, not to defend or evade and certainly not to fall back and regroup. I'm not saying that she could never be forced to do so, but she will by strongly biased against actions that go against her style of play and consider them only if the alternative would be so blatantly doomed that even she would recognize it.

She was in a similar situation when confronted by Ned about the incest: She was given the opportunity to retreat to safety but instead went for a everything-or-nothing confrontation -- and if Littlefinger had betrayed her instead of Eddard, things would have gotten badly for her. But she thought that she had the edge with the City's Watch (and she did), just as she now thinks she has the edge with Ser Robert Strong (and she probably does). To her, "You win or you die" is not only the maxim for the whole war, but for every single major engagement as well.

The big difference is that she could win the coup against The Ned. The numbers were on her side.

She can't win against the tyrells the numbers are against her. With Kevan dead, there is nobody the Tyrells are prepared to respect to stop them from taking Tommen. That leads me to suspect that she'll try to flee, because the situation is blatantly doomed.

A couple of things knocking around in my mind are if the valonqor prophecy is correct then Tommen and Myrcella die before Cersei and the way GRRM introduced Ser Robert Strong into the Kingsguard. The latter tells me he can sidestep narrative problems and sticking points if he wants to, the former tells me that its still too soon for Cersei to die yet.

[Loras]

I think one of the things to come out of Kevan's death will be Lancel accepting the offer of being the Faith's Champion. Lancel has always been under Kevan's thumb, as Kevan was under Tywin's. He was forced to marry Gatehouse Ami by his father though he did rebel to join the Warrior's Sons.

Kevan would never have allowed Lancel to stand against Cersei had he lived. I wonder how that is going to come into play, but there is little doubt that Cersei's champion will break the Faith's.

That being said, whoever takes control of the Kingdom - Harys Swyft again? - will definitely become one of Cersei's minions very quickly. Also will Genna Lannister be asked to accept the regency?

[The Mother of The Others]

It was Patty Smyth and Scandal that did The Warrior.

That song was so awesome. I used to wait by the radio, hoping. You know who else was awesome? Pat Benatar.

Up with Cercei! (a guess) There may be no clear right of way for who should get the power now, so Cerse will have to blaze a trail using Robert to cut a swath through the opposition. I'm also picturing the helmet-coming-off fiasco. But I was envisioning the sand snake being involved in that.

[The Oncoming Storm]

No way will UnGregor be destroyed that early in the book. First he will wipe the floor with the champion of the Faith and then Sandor can hear about it. People outside the Red Keep have no idea about UnGregor's existence yet.

[Night's Scotch]

I don't think Un-Gregor will have to lose for Cercei to be completely screwed...all that has to happen is he gets his helm knocked off or something else that reveals he is a monster and then the jig is up for Qyburn and Cercei

maybe not, but then Sandor wouldn't get his moment in the sun. Sandor needs to slay the monster to finish his redemption arc.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think that, ultimately, there will be a Sandor/UnGregor clash. Whether it's a separate thing or part of Cersei's trial, I don't know yet.

One possibility I've seen that I kind of like is that UnGregor will accidentally go berserk and kill Tommen (the same way Gregor killed the stableboy or whoever he was when he fought Oberyn), getting him out of the way and removing power from both Cersei and the Tyrells. If Tommen dies, assuming that Stannis can't take up the throne because he's been attainted, it would finally pass to Myrcella, if she herself is still alive then. In that case, the Martells would be in the position (i.e. family of the consort) that the Tyrells are in now.

If Myrcella is dead at that time — entirely possible — then all hell really would break loose and you'd see civil war and an opportunity for fake!Aegon to slip in. It depends on how people would react — would they declare for Aegon, try to stage a coup and install themselves as monarchs, or decide that Stannis would be an acceptable alternative after all?

But the Tyrells won't stand for that and they'll probably have to declare Margaery Queen Regnant.

The Tyrells have no legal standing on which to do this. Margaery is only a queen for as long as Tommen is king and legitimate. If Tommen is declared a bastard, his reign ends and so would that of Margaery. She has absolutely no claim to the throne on her own, it's all derived through Tommen.

[Sforzando]

The Tyrells have no legal standing on which to do this. Margaery is only a queen for as long as Tommen is king and legitimate. If Tommen is declared a bastard, his reign ends and so would that of Margaery. She has absolutely no claim to the throne on her own, it's all derived through Tommen.

True, but Cersei had no legal standing to ignore Robert's king-sealed letter naming Ned the King's Hand. If they have the power they are going to try and keep it. Come on, Tommen is dethroned, there is no legit king, the Tyrells have all the power in King's Landing. What can happen? Someone has to sit the Iron Throne.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

True, but Cersei had no legal standing to ignore Robert's king-sealed letter naming Ned the King's Hand. If they have the power they are going to try and keep it. Come on, Tommen is dethroned, there is no legit king, the Tyrells have all the power in King's Landing. What can happen? Someone has to sit the Iron Throne.

Cersei was acting through the authority of her son, who at that time was the "legitimate" king. The thing about wills is, there has to be some kind of political will to enforce them, or they're literally not worth the paper they're written on. No one was willing to challenge Cersei — and she was, technically, right: "We have a new king now" — and so the will ended up being meaningless. Margaery would have no such authority. Like I said, she has no power except what she has through Tommen. If Tommen is deposed, Margaery loses power. The Tyrells would have better luck just staging a good old-fashioned coup, putting up Mace as the king, than they would trying to push Margaery as a "queen regnant." It would be different if Margaery had a child with Tommen — she would then be in Cersei's position — but obviously she doesn't.

And if Tommen dies before Myrcella, she would be the "legitimate" queen after him. Stannis would inherit before her, but he can't as he's been attainted. There are no other male Baratheons (that we know of), so Myrcella would be the ruling queen.

[SirReberalPalsey]

my prediction is trial by the seven which would contend the warriors sons against the kingsguard in a horrific spctacle of might over morality

[mediterraneo]

No way will UnGregor be destroyed that early in the book. First he will wipe the floor with the champion of the Faith and then Sandor can hear about it. People outside the Red Keep have no idea about UnGregor's existence yet.

For the first time I have a bad feel for Margaery, if hers is the second trial by combat. It could be that Sandor will move when word of Ungregor spreads. But I still cannot guarantee that Margaery will have to be passed through a trial by combat or that the Tyrrell would choose anybody but Garlan or even Loras to champion her. Loras is a Kingsguard, so even if Cersei imposes a Kingsguard to fight for a royal family member, Loras can get out of the hat, if he's alive and kicking. Would Sandor leave his peace to fight Loras?

my prediction is trial by the seven which would contend the warriors sons against the kingsguard in a horrific spctacle of might over morality

That would require the whole Kingsguard to fight for the Queen, wouldn't it? The fat, the left handed, the burnt if Loras is not as well as many hope him to be, the Kettleback... Ungregor would tip the balance, but I wouldn't underestimate the power of the faith to gather knights that have fought in the war. Maybe not lords, but Bronn-types horrorized from what they saw and what they did, they may have.

Even if it is only to clean up the Kingsguard and to let Ungregor shine, it is a possibility. But Cersei will ask for a trial by single combat, and she will trust only Ungregor.