Who will win the battle of Winterfell?

[Uldra I]

Though I really want Bolton/Frey to lose badly, I think they have the stronger position. The snow and ice have both sides trapped. Though having enough to feed everyone is a problem for both sides, Bolton/Frey still have some livestock left at Winterfell while the lake by Stannis is "fished out". Winterfell also is heated by the steaming pools below it, while Stannis and his men will run out of their heat source (IIRC they brought coal with them). What if neither side of this battle wins? Or maybe one side wins, but what have they won if they are trapped at Winterfell? At this point, it may not matter who wins, Winter is here! BTW Does anyone even remember why Stannis thought he needed to raise an army to attack Bolton/Frey? I can't even remember.

Here is a quote from "A Ghost in Winterfell" chapter in ADwD where the Freys & Manderlys are arguing about suspicious deaths. Only time I recall Roose expressing an emotion.

Roose said nothing at all. But Theon Greyjoy saw a look in his pale eyes that he had never seen before -- an uneasiness, even a hint of fear.

[bemused]

Stannis wants to prevent the Boltons from holding Winterfell and consolidating their power in the north. if he can take WF and get at least some of the north ( ideally all of the north ) to support him , he won't have to fight his way down to the neck ..and he can swell his army to attack the south.

[Makk]

Stannis now knows of the Karstarks treachery while Bolton does not know that Stannis knows, which should be an advantage.

Mandarly could also somehow help Stannis take the fortress by duplicity but needs to somehow communicate with Stannis. It's not even certain he has switched allegiances because he did say that Davos needed to get Rickon first.

Stannis's army is starving so unless there is significant respite in the weather he has to do something quickly.

Bolton sending troops out is probably a mistake. He would have thought the remaining force would easily be able to hold Winterfell, and sending out the two factions that are at each others throats would save a lot of food and create conditions more conducive to morale. However if Mandarly can communicate with Stannis and together wipe out the Freys, he could then return to Winterfell with a small battered force feigning a narrow victory (along with a Karstark Raven) and betray them from within while Stannis' men storm the castle.

[The brown snake]

Hopefully Stannis will chop off Ramsay boltons head!

[Dolorous Ali]

I thought Lord Manderly is dead now?... Anyone know?

No way!! Lord Manderly is the lord of white harbor.. Remember? He is the really fat guy who made the Frey Pie happen? I do not recall him dying at all, just making the Freys really suspicious about him.. (Although he might die soon, as is the case with a lot of characters in ASoIaF)

[The Drunkard]

Hosteen Frey attacked him with a sword, and cut open a couple of his many chins. He's not dead yet, but his fate's probably up in the air.

[of man and wolf]

Stannis is getting flayed.

[TheNinjaDC]

Stannis.

He'll use his tactician skill to destroy the Frey forces. How is unknown, but there is a high probability he will drown them in the lake as their armor and horses pull them under(just like the historic battle of ice). While incidentally leaving their cloths, armor, and banners mostly undamaged and unblooded.

After that he will move on to Winterfell. He all but assuredly won' siege it. One does not simple siege Winterfell. He'll most likely attack via sneaker methods. There are 4 big potential ways.

1: Uses undamaged Frey cloths to get in by faking his own death, likely with some inside help like for instance returning Manderly soldiers.

2: An insider simply opens the door. Bolton's enemies are rather well known.

3: Bran's secret wall entrance, if Stanis somehow learns of it.

4: The Winterfell crypts, and a secret passage. By thr old gods, something important is down there!

[finger]

The question is discussed in a thread on the headed man. in the general forum.

Bolton is not in such a strong position, and he knows. He has had to send away Freys and Manderlys. To make a long story short, Freys will be destroyed.

(Stannis is informed about what's happening in WF, so he will find a way to have the Manderlys turning against the Freys.)

Stannis is aware of the Karstaks betrayal, supossed it's true. Those will come next.

Umbers are sieging WF, so Bolton won't have any news of the outcome of this fighting. He'll have to get out and fight (explained why elsewhere). Some other northener lords will turn against him.

But the outcome is announced.

Old Nan: the rat cook

TWOIAF: hospitality rules are well respected all over the seven kingdoms, but mostly in the North.

Everywhere: the North remembers.

Freys and Boltons are guilty of the Red Wedding.

Shal I explain it? Anyone needs a map?

It's a very strong blow to the Lannisters. How they are distroyed is a matter of another thread.

[ThePosterThatWasPromised]

Stannis the fuckin Mannis will somehow link up with some wildlings, get Theon to sneak a small force in during the dead of night, Trojan horse them and take it back, and by purest coincidence, Davos arrives back with a small force from Skagos and Rickon to seal the deal.

If Stannis dies I'm sacrificing my copy of the book to the Lord of Light.

[Oberyn1104]

I think that even if Stannis wins the battle(which hopefully he doesnt) Roose will still be able to escape to the Dreadfort

[aFeastForDragons]

Stannis shows up at Winterfell to find Mance and 3000 Wildlings jeering his army from the battlements.

[Lance Corporal Underpants]

Stannis taking Winterfell is a clear plot direction, Could it happen otherwise? Sure. But, the way things are going Stannis will take Winterfell thereby: a) solidifying his own position

b) scaring the hell out of the KL contingent

c) (unwittingly) drawing power away from the Wall

[VaderLike]

If Jon Snow is resurrected, which seems obvious (I seriously doubt Jon Snow becomes a Wolf for the rest of the story), then I doubt his intentions to move on Winterfell change. In fact, his `death` could free him of his Night's Watch vows, since it's 'till death do them part. He only owes the Night's Watch one life, and he's given it.

He doesn't owe them two.

Jon Snow, or Azor Asai, could descend from the wall with an army of wildlings and crush the Boltons with Stannis

[Lord of the Vale]

Stanis will cruch the Freys in the battel of ice and then somehow convince the northmen to open the gates of winterfell and atack the boltons.

[mirthula]

Can some one please explain to me why Roose is seen as a very clever man and the most careful man especially after the red wedding if he was a strategic genius wouldn't he have known his house would never be forgiven for such betrayal. I am not a book expert I didn't read all the internal politics of the books so I honestly don't know.

I know Northerners were annoyed with Robb with his war tactics, especially the karstarks thing was a bad move but I always thought before that Starks are the most loved family. Infact compared to the other ruling families in westeros Starks are very popular because of their code of honor next to them I would have guessed Martells are very popular with their people.

I thought the only reason rest of the North had to rally behind Bolton is because they had no choice because of Stark downfall. How long did Roose expect house Bolton to rule when everyone knew he violated guess rights and murdered the stark family heir. Sooner or later people were going to be gunning for him. Hard to rule over a region when most hate you. I don't think any of the ruling houses have that problem, they might be fighting against each other, but atleast the people under their control are officially are on their side.

[Marakesh]

Can some one please explain to me why Roose is seen as a very clever man and the most careful man especially after the red wedding if he was a strategic genius wouldn't he have known his house would never be forgiven for such betrayal. I am not a book expert I didn't read all the internal politics of the books so I honestly don't know.

I know Northerners were annoyed with Robb with his war tactics, especially the karstarks thing was a bad move but I always thought before that Starks are the most loved family. Infact compared to the other ruling families in westeros Starks are very popular because of their code of honor next to them I would have guessed Martells are very popular with their people.

I thought the only reason rest of the North had to rally behind Bolton is because they had no choice because of Stark downfall. How long did Roose expect house Bolton to rule when everyone knew he violated guess rights and murdered the stark family heir. Sooner or later people were going to be gunning for him. Hard to rule over a region when most hate you. I don't think any of the ruling houses have that problem, they might be fighting against each other, but atleast the people under their control are officially are on their side.

He couldn't have expected Tywin to die and then for Jaime to release all of the hostages. Rebelling against the Boltons would have meant fighting Tywin ... when Roose made that deal. He also could have staved off insurrection for years if the hostages had stayed in the south, but not only are they free, Stannis showed up to his north with an army to rally around.

Another thing, given how conniving and prone to rebellion the lords of modern Westeros are, would the revenge angle have made that much of a difference long term? If he held the title Lord of the North for a decade would the next generation do much more than grumble about the Red Wedding?

[King Jon and Queen Dany]

Since very early on I have thought Stannis will die before the end of the series but I don't think it will be here. I think Stannis (and more importantly, Melisandre) have a role to play in the ultimate war against the whitewalkers. I do not think the Boltons are relevant to that. So based on that I think Stannis has to win this battle.

[The Drunkard]

<snip>

A couple of things:

- Roose has the largest army. He kept his men in reserve throughout the war while sacrificing those of his allies, and at the Red Wedding finished off most of Robb's remaining forces not under his direct control. Aside from Manderly most of the other houses have lost thousands of soldiers, most of them their best. Which you can see when the largest part of Stannis' anti-Bolton army is made up of poorly equipped, poorly trained clansmen. Additionally Roose can count on the Karstark men he effectively absorbed after Rickard's death, and possibly the Dustins, whose lady doesn't like the Starks (so she says).

- Walder Frey holds many hostages. A lot of northern lords and family members are being held at the Twins, so open resistance is risky.

- He has the backing of the south. In addition to the Freys he can (theoretically) count on the Lannister-Tyrell alliance to assist him. Of course that tanks when Tywin dies and everything starts falling apart.

- His potential enemies are scattered with no clear leadership.

[nickdt]

A couple of things:

- Roose has the largest army. He kept his men in reserve throughout the war while sacrificing those of his allies, and at the Red Wedding finished off most of Robb's remaining forces not under his direct control. Aside from Manderly most of the other houses have lost thousands of soldiers, most of them their best. Which you can see when the largest part of Stannis' anti-Bolton army is made up of poorly equipped, poorly trained clansmen. Additionally Roose can count on the Karstark men he effectively absorbed after Rickard's death, and possibly the Dustins, whose lady doesn't like the Starks (so she says).

- Walder Frey holds many hostages. A lot of northern lords and family members are being held at the Twins, so open resistance is risky.

- He has the backing of the south. In addition to the Freys he can (theoretically) count on the Lannister-Tyrell alliance to assist him. Of course that tanks when Tywin dies and everything starts falling apart.

- His potential enemies are scattered with no clear leadership.

Having a large army, doesnt give you an automatic win. Leadership also has something to do with it.

The Manderlys are not the only major army in the North left, who can side with Stannis. There are also the Reeds and maybe the Skagosi. Another ally Stannis can possibly find is Alys Karstark and her Thenns. And there are Northern Armys lost in the Riverlands (Are they, or are they hiding in the White Knife with the Manderly forces).