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The Rundown of the Dance of Dragons 2.0


Fire Eater

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Yes, I take your point. It's just that... well, it's a dragon! That grates on me. I find it hard to envision Jon's gargantuan fire-breathing dinosaur playing nice alongside his puny wolf. Or any other creature / thing that moves. I still wonder if he'll end up with one/none.

Sansa survived Lady's death – or has done for a time. Maybe Jon can survive his, and if/when Ghost dies that's when his Stark heritage dies with it and he becomes a Targ/King.

I will admit that that is a possibility, but Trios is portrayed with three heads at the same time, and I think Jon can get Ghost and Drogon to get along since they share a bond like Varamyr's beasts.

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Yes, I take your point. It's just that... well, it's a dragon! That grates on me. I find it hard to envision Jon's gargantuan fire-breathing dinosaur playing nice alongside his puny wolf. Or any other creature / thing that moves. I still wonder if he'll end up with one/none.

Sansa survived Lady's death – or has done for a time. Maybe Jon can survive his, and if/when Ghost dies that's when his Stark heritage dies with it and he becomes a Targ/King.

I'm convinced that Lady's death is the one reason Sansa survived for any length of time in Kings Landing. That's no place for wolves.

I also see false equivalency between Varamir and his six random beasts and Jon's close bond with his wolf vs. THE ULTIMATE MAGICAL ANIMAL. Dragons are fire made flesh. Wargs are connected to weirwood trees. What happens when something made of wood meets something made of fire?

And really, if you can have a wolf AND a dragon, why not add a lion, a giant, a kraken, and a unicorn to your menagerie? I mean, if it's really that easy.

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Fire Eater,



Melisandre is there when Jon reads from the Pink Letter in the Shield Hall. The Pink Letter and its contents is what triggers Jon's decision to march south as well as Marsh's decision to assassinate him. They do it 'for the Watch' and Jon breaking his oaths and marching south with an army of wildlings is the final straw that causes his assassination.



Thus we have every reason to believe that Selyse and Melisandre are aware of Stannis's alleged death. Stannis's cause is not going to survive his faked death - at least not at the Wall - if Selyse and Melisandre do not crown Shireen. Especially not when Ser Justin Massey and Tycho Nestoris arrive with the signed contract from the Iron Bank. It's not unlikely that this will motivate Selyse and Ser Axell to go with Ser Justin to Braavos to recruit the sellswords. Stannis may believe that he can't risk leaving Westeros, but Queen Shireen might. Especially since her chances of survival should be much higher in Braavos than at the Wall.



As to your assessment that Stannis is going to return to the Wall in the near future: That's certainly his intention, but I can only see him returning if he takes Winterfell and utterly defeats Roose and Ramsay. Should he not win the coming battle, or should he not take Winterfell, he can't possibly retreat to Castle Black. His position there would be completely vulnerable to any attack from the South.



If he loses/has to retreat any castle of any of his new Northern bannermen would be a better position. My bet is on White Harbor, if we assume that he learns in time that Lord Wyman has not betrayed him.



Should Shireen go to Braavos her greyscale may not come back. If she stays I think my scenario has a certain plausibility. Shireen is Selyse's only tool to remain Stannis's wife and to exert any influence over his followers. If she were to die Selyse herself would be doomed as well. And I don't think it would be in Mel's interest to alienate Selyse now by considering to sacrifice her daughter.



If Stannis ever returns to Castle Black he may actually know more about the threat of the Others than Melisandre. It's not unlikely that he is going to convert to the old gods should he witness some sort of miracle on the weirwood island. Especially since most of Stannis's men surviving the coming battle will be Northmen.


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I'm convinced that Lady's death is the one reason Sansa survived for any length of time in Kings Landing. That's no place for wolves.

What's interesting about Lady/Sansa is that it's Ned, a Stark, that kills Lady. And yet she survives pretty darn well. However, she *does* stop being a lady. Instead she becomes Alayne Stone. So I wonder if her death has only been drawn out by Ned, rather than if it were an an enemy who killed her wolf. Perhaps because Ned followed the old custom (did the deed himself) with respect and with the intention to keep Sansa safe?

Whereas, look at Robb and Grey Wind. Their fates mirrored one another other tragically.

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I also see false equivalency between Varamir and his six random beasts and Jon's close bond with his wolf vs. THE ULTIMATE MAGICAL ANIMAL. Dragons are fire made flesh. Wargs are connected to weirwood trees. What happens when something made of wood meets something made of fire?

Greenseers have connections with weirwoods not wargs. I don't see any false equivalency anywhere as dragons are still animals. Warg powers aren't made of wood as I recall. Not to sound snarky or provocative, but I think that is a better example of false equivalency.

And really, if you can have a wolf AND a dragon, why not add a lion, a giant, a kraken, and a unicorn to your menagerie? I mean, if it's really that easy.

This is an example of ignoratio elenchi, no offense.

Fire Eater,

Melisandre is there when Jon reads from the Pink Letter in the Shield Hall. The Pink Letter and its contents is what triggers Jon's decision to march south as well as Marsh's decision to assassinate him. They do it 'for the Watch' and Jon breaking his oaths and marching south with an army of wildlings is the final straw that causes his assassination.

Thus we have every reason to believe that Selyse and Melisandre are aware of Stannis's alleged death. Stannis's cause is not going to survive his faked death - at least not at the Wall - if Selyse and Melisandre do not crown Shireen. Especially not when Ser Justin Massey and Tycho Nestoris arrive with the signed contract from the Iron Bank. It's not unlikely that this will motivate Selyse and Ser Axell to go with Ser Justin to Braavos to recruit the sellswords. Stannis may believe that he can't risk leaving Westeros, but Queen Shireen might. Especially since her chances of survival should be much higher in Braavos than at the Wall.

It will survive his faked death, emphasis on faked, as he is still alive, and with a larger army than before. Marsh can't become LC by himself, and he knows that, but Osric Stark was made LC by the KitN, and Marsh could make use of that precedent. I don't think Stannis will leave Westeros as he made that clear in the spoiler GRRM released.

As to your assessment that Stannis is going to return to the Wall in the near future: That's certainly his intention, but I can only see him returning if he takes Winterfell and utterly defeats Roose and Ramsay. Should he not win the coming battle, or should he not take Winterfell, he can't possibly retreat to Castle Black. His position there would be completely vulnerable to any attack from the South.

If he loses/has to retreat any castle of any of his new Northern bannermen would be a better position. My bet is on White Harbor, if we assume that he learns in time that Lord Wyman has not betrayed him.

If Stannis ever returns to Castle Black he may actually know more about the threat of the Others than Melisandre. It's not unlikely that he is going to convert to the old gods should he witness some sort of miracle on the weirwood island. Especially since most of Stannis's men surviving the coming battle will be Northmen.

Stannis would come back to the Wall if he knew the Boltons were headed for CB for his wife and child as well as Melisandre. Besides, he made the Nightfort his seat, and needs to consult with Melisandre. I don't see Stannis converting to the Old Gods anytime soon after all the Melisandre has provided him and the Old Gods don't have him being a proclaimed savior. I don't think we have any clues pointing to miracle on the weirwood island. I think it is more likely Theon remembers what Luwin told him in ACoK, and asks to take the black while Asha may be killed there in battle with her blood spilled on the weirwood.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Update 1:

The first Princess Daenerys, Daeron's sister, was in love with the bastard Daemon Blackfyre, and married a Dornishman, Maron Martell who fought against Daemon Blackfyre. It was Daenerys's marriage to a Martell that helped to lead to the first Blackfyre Rebellion. It will be Aegon's marriage to a Martell instead of Daenerys that helps to lead to the war. We also get Princess Arianne Martell was in love a bastard named Daemon, completing the parallel to Daenerys.

Update 2:

A few pages back in this thread I wrote about the Dornish feast and the symbolism in the food served. Also how the feast itself is a parallel to the Golden Company

Today I noticed another parallel perhaps in another dish served.

ASoS Salladhor Saan says to Davos

" Illyrio Mopatis. " " A whale with whiskers, I am telling you truly."

ADwD

The soup was made with eggs and lemon,the long green peppers stuffed with cheese and onions. There were lamprey pies, capons glazed with honey, a whisker fish from the bottom of the Greenblood that was so big it took four serving men to carry it to the table.

Perhaps Illyrio will meet his end on the Greenblood traveling up through Dorne.

I could live for years on his [illyrio's] rings, Tyrion mused, though I'd need a cleaver to claim them.

One of the corpses [of the corsairs] was so fat that the ship's cook had to cut his fingers off with a meat cleaver to claim his rings. It took three Meadowlarks to roll the body into the sea.

The river mentioned is called the Greenblood, and Aegon's side will be the greens in the second Dace of Dragons, so it could imply Illyrio is of Aegon's blood.I think this foreshadows Illyrio being slain and his body dumped into the Greenblood. Special thanks to Lady Arya's Song.

"If you would wed, wed" the Red Viper had told his own daughters. "If not, take your pleasure where you find it. There's little enough of it in this world. Choose well, though. If you saddle yourself with a fool or a brute, don't look to me to rid you of him. I gave you the tools to do that for yourself."

When Arianne marries Aegon, he will prove to be a bit of a fool, as he suffers from some of the shortcomings of youth, as Tyrion notes he risks all for the quick kill, and Aegon is still lacking in caution and some good sense. I think Arianne may parallel Cersei in having her royal husband killed off, likely in battle.

He slew Aegon [blackfyre] first

"I have an uncle Brynden," Bran said . . .

"Your uncle may have been named for me."

This is from TSS when Eustace recounts the Battle of Redgrass Field. Aegon was the first Blackfyre to be slain, and I think the last Blackfyre to be slain could be fAegon. Aegon was killed by Brynden Rivers who shares the same name with the BF. Brynden Rivers killed the first Blackfyre pretender and I think the one possibly named for him, Brynden Tully, will kill the last Blackfyre pretender. I can see Aegon trying something foolhardy in battle like his forebear Daemon did with a risky frontal assault on the vanguard made up of Valemen, and engage in single combat with the Blackfish, who will likely be fighting alongside the Valemen. It would be akin to when Daemon Blackfyre fought with Gwayne Corbray, a member of the KG whose sigil was three black ravens, again like the black fish of Brynden.

Unbowed. Unbent. Unbroken.

The broken spear had gone through him

Oberyn's spear breaks when fights Gregor. The spear is part of the sigil of House Martell with the house words being a reference to a spear. Does this foreshadow House Martell being broken in the sense that they are defeated and subdued? I think it is likely by Tyrion and Dany.

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snip

Bloodraven killed Fireball (who is the most dangerous general of the Blackfyre army and weapon master of all the great bastards) just before the decisive battle. Do you think Blackfish will do the same? If so, who can be the Fireball 2.0? Duckfield does not strike me as such but it may change.

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If so, who can be the Fireball 2.0?

Let's see how many redheaded, older mentor types, who are proven warriors and determined to seat their claimant on the IT can you think of in Faegon entourage?

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Unbowed. Unbent. Unbroken.

The broken spear had gone through him

Oberyn's spear breaks when fights Gregor. The spear is part of the sigil of House Martell with the house words being a reference to a spear. Does this foreshadow House Martell being broken in the sense that they are defeated and subdued? I think it is likely by Tyrion and Dany.

The Martell sigil contains two symbols, a spear and a sun. A sun is usually depicted as a circle. You cannot bow, bent or break a circle. The spear symbolizes the male part in the Martell-Nymeria union. The sun symbolizes the female part in the Martell-Nymeria union. If anything, I take it to mean all the men in the house will die but the women will survive.

It's fun to see you've adapted my Daenerys I-Arianne parallel btw. :P

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Let's see how many redheaded, older mentor types, who are proven warriors and determined to seat their claimant on the IT can you think of in Faegon entourage?

Ser Rolly Duckfield has red hair, and is a member of Aegon's KG while Fireball wanted to join the KG. Duck also trained Aegon in sword and shield like Fireball did Daemon. Nice catch, Lamprey.

The Martell sigil contains two symbols, a spear and a sun. A sun is usually depicted as a circle. You cannot bow, bent or break a circle. The spear symbolizes the male part in the Martell-Nymeria union. The sun symbolizes the female part in the Martell-Nymeria union. If anything, I take it to mean all the men in the house will die but the women will survive.

It's fun to see you've adapted my Daenerys I-Arianne parallel btw. :P

I forgot about your Daenerys-Arianne parallel, had I remembered I would have given your credit like I do all the other posters whom I've borrowed from.

I don't see Arianne surviving, as she has adopted the spear aspect of her uncle, Oberyn, and the Sand Snakes may be her advisors whose first thought to solving a problem is with a spear.

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Blackfish already proved himself to be a good archer. If Rolly Duckfield proves himself deadly in the battlefield as the only KG of fAegon, I think Dany's war council will consider taking him out by assassination. Tyrion already knows the man and he saw that fAegon loves him much. He chose Duckfield to the KG against JonCon's wishes.


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If anything, I take it to mean all the men in the house will die but the women will survive.

I dunno, Trystane seems pretty clearly set up as the "spare" to pick up the pieces when Arianne, Doran, and probably several of the Sand Snakes have died.

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Greenseers have connections with weirwoods not wargs. I don't see any false equivalency anywhere as dragons are still animals. Warg powers aren't made of wood as I recall. Not to sound snarky or provocative, but I think that is a better example of false equivalency.

The words get used interchangably at times, understandably since the two Greenseers in the story both have powerful warging abilities and are referred to as wargs by both each-other and the fans. You will not deny that the Greenseer is literally, magically, and maybe even mentally linked with his wierwood tree, and Bran, with his diet of wierwood paste and his useless physical legs, is likely to follow suit. We know the warg projects a part of himself into the animal to impose his will...a part substantial enough to allow a "soul" to survive the death of it's own body. What we don't know is what the greenseer receives in return when he does this. The wolfy strength of the Stark kids (and the crushing effect that loosing Lady had on Sansa), implies, to me at least, that it's not just a one-way street. What would a warg latching on to a dragon receive in return, if not some magic fire?

This is an example of ignoratio elenchi, no offense.

On the contrary. It's a logical thematic extension of your very own theory. Yet again I'm amazed that someone so preoccupied by the miniscule "proofs" of his theories can be so dismissive of the thematic implications of those theories...and how out of synch they are with the actual messages of the book.

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What would a warg latching on to a dragon receive in return, if not some magic fire?

I don't see how warging a dragon would get one burned. It is a metaphysical/spiritual bond not a physcial one. The CotF could warg fish, and they didn't drown.

On the contrary. It's a logical thematic extension of your very own theory. Yet again I'm amazed that someone so preoccupied by the miniscule "proofs" of his theories can be so dismissive of the thematic implications of those theories...and how out of synch they are with the actual messages of the book.

Where do the clues point to Jon warging any of those animals you mentioned? Jon wouldn't need to warg any of those animals, and likely won't get the opportunity while he would need to warg a dragon if he needed to mount it to prove his heritage and get Dany's army to the Wall. What was presented had no relevance with what we were arguing about. How are my theories out of sync with the messages of the series? I don't see any contradictions.

Also, I advise you put "It is my opinion that" or "I think" beforehand, otherwise you given the impression of stating your opinions as matter-of-factly, no offense and committing ignoratio elenchi.

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I don't see how warging a dragon would get one burned. It is a metaphysical/spiritual bond not a physcial one. The CotF could warg fish, and they didn't drown.

It's a MAGICAL bond, and when it comes to magic, anything goes. The fish live in water, but they are not MADE of water. Can you warg a stream? A volcano? A storm? What would be the result if you tried? What if it was a stream magically made living and conscious, could you warg it then?

Where do the clues point to Jon warging any of those animals you mentioned?

There are none. But in my opinion 99% of those "clues" of yours aren't clues either, so we'll just have to see. I guarentee if there was any chance that a unicorn could be pivetally important in the war against the Others and/or empower someone to claim a throne that "should" be theirs, someone somewhere would find some vague reference that "proved" Jon would warg a unicorn someday. He'd see something white, or stroke the horn of a goat, or see a cloven hoofprint in the forest or something, and boom, instant proof.

Jon wouldn't need to warg any of those animals, and likely won't get the opportunity while he would need to warg a dragon if he needed to mount it to prove his heritage and get Dany's army to the Wall.

I thought you said she could keep her army...oh right, if he's king he's going to demand she surrender control of all her forces to him and she'll have no choice but to obey because he's got Drogon. Thus finishing her "journey" right back to where she started: a terrified girl alone and powerless with a male relative in control of her fate. Except she won't be terrified this time because this time she BELONGS in that tower, dying on that bed. It's her PLACE. She just needed to find the right man to die for. She'll go with a smile on her face knowing her life's purpose is fulfilled.

I'm already on record with how revolting I find this theory. And don't try and claim that it's not what you're saying; it's what that ENDING of yours says, themeatically, without any help from you. It is the meaning of the theory you've concocted. Events happening in that order for that reason mean THIS, whether you mean them to or not.

What was presented had no relevance with what we were arguing about. How are my theories out of sync with the messages of the series? I don't see any contradictions.

Then, no offense, you are not looking hard enough. Is the moral of the story, the big message that GRRM is building up to, that in the end might belongs to the people who "should" have it? That magical laws of the universe will just put right everything that goes wrong and falling in line behind the right leader is the only way for humanity to move forward? That in the end, tradition and arbitrary adherence to law and the natural order will save us all?

Those are the themes I see in your ending. I don't see them elsewhere in this the series. Where do you see them? What are you getting that I'm not?

Also, I advise you put "It is my opinion that" or "I think" beforehand, otherwise you given the impression of stating your opinions as matter-of-factly, no offense and committing ignoratio elenchi.

I'm sorry, but it is my opinion that I think I don't need constant reminding that we are dealing with theories here, because I've never pretended otherwise. I apologize for any confusion. These are all opinions. You are of the OPINION that this reference to a dragon hatching at whitewalls or this reference to Dorne or this color being seen here means this thing. Lets not pretend this is anything other then what it is.

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It's a MAGICAL bond, and when it comes to magic, anything goes. The fish live in water, but they are not MADE of water. Can you warg a stream? A volcano? A storm? What would be the result if you tried? What if it was a stream magically made living and conscious, could you warg it then?

Volcano and steam are inanimate objects whereas dragons are living things. I don't see a skinchanger's spirit getting burned form warging with a dragon.

There are none. But in my opinion 99% of those "clues" of yours aren't clues either, so we'll just have to see. I guarentee if there was any chance that a unicorn could be pivetally important in the war against the Others and/or empower someone to claim a throne that "should" be theirs, someone somewhere would find some vague reference that "proved" Jon would warg a unicorn someday. He'd see something white, or stroke the horn of a goat, or see a cloven hoofprint in the forest or something, and boom, instant proof.

Except there aren't any references to Jon having a connection with unicorns. We only see a unicorn helm in his POV, and that's it. Dragons actually have something to do with his heritage.

I thought you said she could keep her army...oh right, if he's king he's going to demand she surrender control of all her forces to him and she'll have no choice but to obey because he's got Drogon. Thus finishing her "journey" right back to where she started: a terrified girl alone and powerless with a male relative in control of her fate. Except she won't be terrified this time because this time she BELONGS in that tower, dying on that bed. It's her PLACE. She just needed to find the right man to die for. She'll go with a smile on her face knowing her life's purpose is fulfilled.

I don't think Jon won't command her to surrender her forces to him since being her king she would be the one owing fealty to him, and she could just follow him with her army like a lord follows a king or his liege. Her army is still hers unless Westerosi swear their swords to Jon. Jon isn't in control of her fate, and I doubt she will return to the scared girl of AGoT as she isn't powerless, she still has an army and her own dragons. Life isn't about the destination it's the journey. What about the slaves she freed and stopping the Blackfyres from taking the IT?

I'm already on record with how revolting I find this theory. And don't try and claim that it's not what you're saying; it's what that ENDING of yours says, themeatically, without any help from you. It is the meaning of the theory you've concocted. Events happening in that order for that reason mean THIS, whether you mean them to or not.

It's actually what you think the ending says, and not to pick on you, but I think you are the only one so far who has expressed that opinion. I find that argument to be non sequitur, no offense.

Then, no offense, you are not looking hard enough. Is the moral of the story, the big message that GRRM is building up to, that in the end might belongs to the people who "should" have it? That magical laws of the universe will just put right everything that goes wrong and falling in line behind the right leader is the only way for humanity to move forward? That in the end, tradition and arbitrary adherence to law and the natural order will save us all?

Those are the themes I see in your ending. I don't see them elsewhere in this the series. Where do you see them? What are you getting that I'm not?

Jon does have strong Arthurian parallels, and he will be the most qualified candidate for the IT by the end. Your proposed message that would be sent if Jon becomes king doesn't fit since it ignores Aerys, who like Jon, was also the rightful king. History is also filled with rightful Targaryen kings who were terrible.

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Barristan let his beard grow and he looked no more than a simple old man. This way he could leave KL although he is being chased by the Gold Cloaks. Davos also had an extremely ordinary appearance that he used to gather information at the inn. Blackfish is an old man and now that he is on the run, he will change his appearance just like Barristan to sneak into where it is most dangerous. Odysseus returned to his home after 20 years in the appearance of an old beggar.


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“His brother [Doran] is a cautious man, a reasoned man, subtle, deliberate, even indolent to a degree. He is a man who weighs the consequences of every word and every action.



...



“You knew, and yet you still allowed us to make off with Myrcella. Why?”


That was my mistake, and it has proved a grievous one. You are my daughter, Arianne. The little girl who used to run to me when she skinned her knee. I found it hard to believe that you would conspire against me. I had to learn the truth.”



...



“You might have, but you didn’t. Dayne, Dalt, Santagar... no, you would never dare make enemies of such Houses.”



I dare more than you dream... but leave that for the nonce. Ser Andrey has been sent to Norvos to serve your lady mother for three years. Garin will spend his next two years in Tyrosh. From his kin amongst the orphans, I took coin and hostages. Lady Sylva received no punishment from me, but she was of an age to marry. Her father has shipped her to Greenstone to wed Lord Estermont.



...



“Jeyne Fowler, or her sister Jennelyn.” It had been years since Arianne had thought of that. “Oh, and Frynne, her father was a smith. Her hair was brown. Garin was my favorite, though. When I rode Garin no one could defeat us, not even Nym and that green-haired Tyroshi girl.”



That green-haired girl was the Archon’s daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret,



Doran made no mistake. All the people in Arianne's party (except Darkstar) were Doran's spies. Darkstar probably understood that and took action to screw Doran's plan. Arianne's party members were seemingly punished but I think Doran used this as an excuse to play some games. He likes to send and receive important people with secret agenda and cover his intentions with such excuses. Archon's daughter and Quentyn's campaign prove that. He sent important messages to Norvos and Tyrosh. He allied with the Estermonts as well. Note that the sigil of House Estermont is a dark green sea turtle and we know how important are the turtles (Old Man of the River) for the Rhoynish. Andrew Estermont holds Edric Storm in Lys. Eldon Estermont surely wants Edric to be legitimized and him assigned as Edric's regent until he comes of age. fAegon can do this.


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The burning gods cast a pretty light, wreathed in their robes of shifting flame, red and orange and yellow.



The sound was shocking, ear-piercing, thick with agony. Varamyr fell, writhing, and the ‘cat was screaming too... and high, high in the eastern sky, against the wall of cloud, Jon saw the eagle burning. For a heartbeat it flamed brighter than a star, wreathed in red and gold and orange, its wings beating wildly at the air as if it could fly from the pain. Higher it flew, and higher, and higher still.



“It glows,” said Sam, in a hushed voice. “As if it were on fire. There are no flames, but the steel is yellow and red and orange, all flashing and glimmering, like sunshine on water, but prettier. I wish you could see it, Maester.”



Jon went to cut more branches, snapping each one in two before tossing it into the flames. The tree had been dead a long time, but it seemed to live again in the fire, as fiery dancers woke within each stick of wood to whirl and spin in their glowing gowns of yellow, red, and orange.



“You should have come along with us, Your Grace,” the little schemer prattled on as they climbed the slope of Aegon’s High Hill. “We could have had such a lovely time together. The trees are gowned in gold and red and orange, and there are flowers everywhere. Chestnuts too. We roasted some on our way home.”



More hints about the attack of the Kingswood trees to KL and Cersei burning the KL with wildfire. Living trees engulfed in flames same as Mel’s sorcerous flames and the trees of Kingswood described with the same colours.

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