kav2001c

I think the biggest butterfly effect ever would be changing opening Instead of Robert and crew riding forth to propose Ned becomes Hand and that Joff should marry Sansa to bind thier houses Imagine Varys negotiated a hostage situation to remove the threat. Joff marries Daenerys to legitimize the dynasty, and Viserys becomes hand And Joff marrying Dany is not that absurd; he does later marry the much older Margaery anyhow (wiki has Dany being 1 year younger than Marg)

It is after all a Song of Ice and Fire Dany goes east to get whatever that darkness was that consumed Aerea from within Jon goes north to get whatever that darkness was that forced them to build the Wall in the first place Somehow the two main pieces are going to clash before books are done

Stuff Martin needs to resolve (there is no way it all happens in 2 books imo, no matter how many he kills) Northern Civil War - Stannis vs Roose, the fact both sides have traitors (known and unknown) + potential secret plot Nights Watch & Warg Jon + Melisandra / Azor prophecies Beyond the Wall - Bran Tree, 3 Eye Crow, Missing Rangers, Others Cersei & Margery vs the Faith (& Varys plot) fAegon + Connington invasion Dorne + Sandsnakes Sansa + Littlefinger in the Vale Jaime - Brienne - Lady Stoneheart Davos rescue Rickon Tyrion & Dany out east And thats not even touching on all the less important characters or the big issue of ancestry and rights to rule We also still have Gendry, Arya, Theon, Bank, Reeds, Loras and so many others where it is not obvious at all where they fit in (esp since HBO end was so odd) So many plots I am sure I am foregtting someone else...

I feel its more likely the stuff out east still despite his fixing the Meerene knot Dany & Tyrion etc are still a world away from Westeros and (seemingly) no way to put them back in play AND keep a coherent narrative (we all saw the bizarre HBO version lets fly across, lets go mad and toast everyone, lets support Bran since he had the best (unwritten) story of them all) The Wall is (probably) the most fleshed out part of his story since it was (originally) part of the main arc and all the pieces are already on the board I am sure there are minor issues with Cersei, fAegon, Stannis etc but no way they take years to fix

Again its not that he doesnt want to do its such a huge task and its obvious he has lost his wind He went down way too many side quests and is now having serious issues getting back to main plot He took the HBO S8 backlash very personally (imo) and has more than likely made some overall huge modifications as a result Even without the two issues above, he just has not been managing his own time well. As he himself has said many times you cant force the writing to come and worse even when he was hot he spent too much time working entirely different series (books + tv) or even travel to things like conventions IF he ever finishes the series I would love to actually have some real analysis on writing process and changes that took place over time. Similar to what Tolkiens son has released. I think it itself would make a very interesting read.

You know length of that book became a big issue (many international releases even made Storm 1 and Storm 2) Its more an issue that if GRRM had planned ahead the split he could have peeled chapters off into other novels (esp the beginning into Clash or end into Feast) If we do a more serious rewrite it starts to effect arcs but again he could have started split after Book 1 and made Clash - Feast and Storm - Dance into two seperate narratives and then merge later on (although I said I am worried about Winds length and potential for merge not being complete yet) Otherwise just scrap split idea and just go ahead as is in a single narrative

My only hope is that the split if it happens is done better I know this is a trait of GRRM but seriously the splits / overlaps we have seen previously (Clash+Storm & Feast+Dance) have both been done quite poorly as there was little preplanning I really cant imagine what is taking so long but the delay has me very worried for quality.... I have a nagging suspicion that after HBO show leaked some of his ideas and (since zero developement) he is trying to go back and make changes but then even more issues as he tries to retcon the new story into existing outline (more unreliable narrator povs incoming I am betting) The scariest thing imo is how we have seen such detailed minutia (which in many ways is why fans love the books, we have no idea what is important and what is just world building) and yet we know nothing about the real conflict. Song of Ice and Fire. Others are barely mentioned (most of the world thinks its a myth) and Dragons have never set foot in Westeros (instead running wild out east). I suspect GRRM is nowhere near finished these books (certainly not the main plot lines) as he needs to tie up so many elements of the civil was and then move so many pieces around the board (many of whom are worlds away from the main plot line)

GRRM basically said "Oh remember when I said I was working on Winds? Psyche! I have actually been working on and going over HotD episodes, 5 times to go over each" GRRM also says strike will not effect Winds (ha ha) as he appears to have been on his own writers strike for years now The fact he continues to waste time on all these side quests is actually quite annoying at this point tbh https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2023/05/07/strike/

Some of what you say is true but Sam in particular is the most boring character in the series who's only point is to go to Old Town to learn something (or meet someone impersonating someone). Really beyond that his entire plot could be reduced to 2 chapters. Conflict at the Wall. Shipped off to Old Town. Done. Sansa also works well with a time skip (flee after Joff killed, meet Littlefinger, then ???). Way too much side politics for the Vale alot of it seems like a red herring. Since we have no idea what is true / fake / revised from show version its hard to comment on but so far she seems about as important as Rickon. At least Bran + Arya are doing something.

This Initially he had only a few mentions of the east but as it expanded it got more and more convoluted to the point it is now every bit as complicated as Westeros I mean he has made countless passing references to this (even in Westeros to his "time skip") but instead of fleshing out stuff in additional novels after main story he is now cramming too much in It is the utter opposite of say how Tolkien used to write back in the day (over view of plot then flesh out sections as needed). GRRM had a basic overview, then started changing it, then (after show tanked using many of his future arcs very poorly) I suspect that caused him grief to even further flesh things out (and change some more things)

He had a jump start on Winds (hundreds of pages leftover from Dance that were cut for length) He had 2+ years of covid lockdowns And now comes back with 1100ish completed pages (so 800ish new pages) after all these years and still 500ish to write? Even assuming I ever read Winds the odds of my seeing Spring in next decade are looking grim...

I think (esp with sample chapters) he split the book Same way Storm of Swords had overlap and same way Feast of Crows & Dance with Dragons were split Honestly part of me thinks he was too disorganized and that better editing would have benefitted the series greatly. Its not like they were cranking these novels out every year

Thoros was described as being an overseas version of Robert. A drunken fool who asked for men to retake his claim (actually sounds a bit like Viserys now that I think of it) I doubt he was ever paying enough attention to anything Also alot of posters were talking about how characters who return from the dead have lost themselves yet nobody seems to remember Khal Drogo...