How did Varys know Gregor would have beaten Aegon to an unrecognizable pulp ?

[The guy from the Vale]

Varys killed Pycelle for other reasons. I won't believe he had definitive proof that Aegon is a fake but does not present it to the council immediately:

This is Pycelle's chance to say he has the information the council needs to expose the pretender but he doesn't. Because he has no proof. You don't offer coin to bribe and bargain when you have a trump card.

Pycelle might have had proof available for Kevan and sent for him to show it to him, but was killed before. It's possible Pycelle had to check up on something or had proof written down but not readily available. Pycelle not speaking up immediately does not mean he doesn't have proof, it just means he doesn't have proof up his sleeve during the meeting.

[sleath56]

The question is why he didn't save Elia or Rhaenys, or why he didn't set up a court in exile. Hiding Aegon made the current questionable of him being real a thing in the first place...

He probably didn't care about Elia. I had the same doubt as you about Rhaenys until someone said that Rhaenys had already grown distinctive features and Varys felt it be safer chance for just Aegon to escape to be able to cover up the baby swap. With Rhaenys being swapped people would have had a greater chance of finding out and it would compromise Aegon's safety as well.

[RoamingRonin]

The question is why he didn't save Elia or Rhaenys, or why he didn't set up a court in exile. Hiding Aegon made the current questionable of him being real a thing in the first place...

He could have saved them but since he didn't it means he never intended to. Keeping him hidden makes the issue difficult, yes, but crowning an infant when the rebellion had just ended in favor of the Baratheons would have been a massive mistake.

Pycelle might have had proof available for Kevan and sent for him to show it to him, but was killed before. It's possible Pycelle had to check up on something or had proof written down but not readily available. Pycelle not speaking up immediately does not mean he doesn't have proof, it just means he doesn't have proof up his sleeve during the meeting.

If you have definitive proof you don't suggest the offer of a bribe. This was his moment to tell the council he had evidence that would eliminate the Targaryen pretender even if he didn't have the proof on his person. Pycelle has always been eager to please. There's absolutely no reason for him to remain silent on the matter when he has the perfect opportunity to speak up.

The theory makes zero sense.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

If you have definitive proof you don't suggest the offer of a bribe. This was his moment to tell the council he had evidence that would eliminate the Targaryen pretender even if he didn't have the proof on his person. Pycelle has always been eager to please. There's absolutely no reason for him to remain silent on the matter when he has the perfect opportunity to speak up.

Maybe Pycelle would need to check him personally. Maybe Pycelle had no proof at all but Varys just didn't take any chances.

[LordStoneheart]

A dead baby is a dead baby.

:rolleyes:

[Harry Lime]

Because it's Gregor?

[Alaynsa Starne]

I don't know if someone has already mentioned this, but we've seen Jon swap babies and Sam, who had spent extensive time around one of the children, didn't even notice the difference until Aemon pointed it out. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities to assume that Varys was banking on people overlooking the differences in Aegon and the Pisswater Prince, even without the smashed face.

[Dragon Roast]

You recognize someone by their face. Or distinctions of their body but if that person is a baby, you recognize from his face alone. aDwD epilogue:

“A feigned boy is what he has,” said Randyll Tarly. “That may be. Or not.” Kevan Lannister had

been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar’s children at the foot of

the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but

the boy … a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore, a few hanks of fair hair. None of us looked long.

Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon, and we took him at his word.

Girl and mother was recognisable, but not the boy. Too convenient. You wrote a large post about Lannisters' brutality but you're speaking like there is a way to measure of it or anything. Yes it was brutal nobody denies that but Rhaenys was stabbed half a hundred times, still she was recognizable. Someone like Varys doesn't rely on such a blind luck and if you don't see even that then there's no point debating.

Kevan would have known the mother and--perhaps--the daughter, but after the sack would be the first time he saw the son. Aegon was a baby, recently born while Kevan was in the West until Tywin called the banners to march on KL. No way that he had any idea what Aegon looked like, Any baby with a face would have been just as accepted by him to be Aegon as any baby without one would be. His memory is based on what he saw (and believed at the time) and nothing more. Any dead baby would have served the same purpose. All present at the time the dead were presented had good reasons to accept and believe these were Rhaegar's wife and children. That Varys might guess that this would be the predictable outcome of Tywin's sack of KL could not be a surprise and it is possible that he might have acted on this belief.

Varys may or may not be telling the truth, but the condition of the dead presented as Rhaegar's family is irrelevant.

[Lord rosa]

Cuz it didn't happen!

[sleath56]

I now believe that Varys thought the death of Rhaenys was a necessary evil so that the lords would be less suspicious of Aegon. If they thought Rhaenys, who had recognizable features was the real deal, They would have less suspicion that Aegon was fake considering how he was just born. The face smashed in was a bonus, but it was not necessary. Even if someone thought Argon didn't look exactly as they remembered, they would have blamed their own memory rather than somehow conclude and think Aegon was fake.

No one really enjoyed the killing of the children, so they wouldn't have spent much time thinking about the matter.

[Djinn]

Varys put a rattling collar on baby ''Aegon''. He knew that it would trigger one of Gregor's rages.(maybe)

[Lord_Tyrell]

According to the cover story by Varys at least, I think he figured that Robert would have to kill the kids in order to secure his claim, so he switched them. I don't think he thought that they would go to the extent that Ser Gregor did with the rape and murder, but he would still know that Aegon had to die.

I don't believe it though, and just think that Varys made lemonade out of lemons and decided to pass off his newly born nephew for Aegon.

[corbon]

They would notice a Targaryen baby. There weren't much Valyrian infants around, so the story just doesn't work

Huge flaw. As the wiki says here, it only works in retrospect. Gregor was not in on it; he's just a monster. But there was no way Varys could know for sure that Gregor would kill him the way he did... or that the baby would've been killed at all.

The wiki is just another fan's opinion, and not a smart one either. Whether or not fAegon is real, its takes a pretty narrow mind to dismiss the possibility of the switch and him being real.

Varys expressly found a Valyrian featured baby for the swap.

And thats nowhere near as hard to do as people make out. There must be literally thousands of Targaryen bastard-descendents out there, not to mention that those features are common in Lys. There's almost certainly a not-insignificant number of whores in KL imported from Lys. Fucking a trag-appearing whore would certainly appeal to a large number of men (or women) from many different walks of life.

Aurane Waters anyone? Just a Velyron bastard of Driftmark, not even a Targ by-blow. Still, he reminds Cersei of Rhaegar...

So there is no reason at all it would be difficult for Varys to do as he claimed. Logistically, just none.

We also see that protective 'doubles' for royal children are not unknown - we see Myrcella use one, and Varys would be responsible in part for her protection.

So there is no logical requirement for Varys to know Aegon will be killed. Even if he is not plotting anything there is a reasonable case for him to have a 'double' being prepared for Aegon.

As for the way Aegon was killed, that could be opportune, or could also actually have been Varys. Gregor throws 'Aegon' against the wall and moves on to Elia and its Varys who after wards makes sure the baby is truly unrecognisable. Easily done, as easily as a switch.

So no logistical problem there either.

Yes, its possible Varys cooked up the plot afterwards. But it also hangs together quite comfortably in terms of logistics as presented to us. "Issues" come only from narrowminded people invested in one theory, or unable to think logically beyond a single reference frame..

The thing is: if Varys found a Valyrian-match for Aegon, why couldn't he have done the easier task of replacing Rhaenys with a Dornish as well?

1. She's older and more individual and more recognisable (it would actually have been harder, not easier).

2. She ran away and wasn't where she was supposed to be (maybe he had a plan to do so and it failed)

3. She's a girl and, sad to say, just not important (why spirit away someone who is just going to get married off anyway and won't have control even if everything works)

4. Maybe he only had time/opportunity for one.

I'm sure other people can add plenty more possibilities. The point is that its extremely weakminded to harp on about this as an issue. There are many many possibilities of why things may have panned out as they did. Just because they did pan out one way and not another does not render the way they panned out to be flawed.

Plain and Valyrian face have no business being in the same sentence. We're talking about fantasy handsome looks, surreal beauty, not just different coloring, as confirmed by the author.

...

But that's the thing with believing the swap happened and fAegon is real. It relies on too many what ifs and pure luck. It really is too good to be true.

Actually, thats a load of rubbish. The Targs do sometimes have a slightly surreal look, but they are not all gorgeously beautiful. They just have an odd colouring that makes them look different, 'unnatural almost' (surreal). The not-so pretty ones are still not so pretty.

Every situation is the culmination of hundreds, thousand, of what-ifs and pure luck. There are a lot less what-ifs and a lot less pure luck necessary to make fAegon Aegon than people claim.

A hundred and One things would have to happen for Varys plan to work. Tywin has to sack the city, Robert had to be injured on the Trident to delay his arrival, the Mountain has bash in Aegon's head. Pycelle would have to not look close at a baby he brought into the world, Aegon could have no birth marks, the Aegon and the pisswater prince would need the same hair and even eye color encase they are taking alive, Every servant who has ever saw him would have to not be able to tell the difference, etc, etc.

Like Benjamin Franklin said "Three men can keep a secret if two of them are dead" Varys knows, Illyrio knows, the pisswaters princes father would know something, and all of the Shy Maid crew knows. They all kept their silence for near two decades?

See my last line above. Yes things worked out exactly the way they did. If things had been different they would have worked out a different way. Your first argument is irrelevant.

The only people who need to know initially are Varys and ... thats all. Not even the ships crew or captain need know.

Later, more people are in the know. Possibly Ashara Dayne, possibly Jon Connington. Still later even more.

But apparently the secret has been fairly well kept anyway.

It helps having Viserys and Dany visible too.

Because Young Griff, Prince Aegon, King Aegon VI Targaryen, whatever you call him, is an impostor. Considering the painting in Illyrio's house and the affection in Illyrio's words, a son of Illyrio and another Valyrian alike woman.

Considered, evaluated (you mean statue, right, not painting?) and calculated as meaning little and less in terms of actual real evidence. But being possible textual hints.

And considering Golden's Company's loyalty, possibly son of Illyrio and a Blackfyre princess.

Considering also that the Golden Company has little or no resemblance to the company that was loyal to the Blackfyres several generations ago, expressly professed to care only about returning to Westeros and winning lands and castles there, and is currently following a Targaryen claimant anyway (if fAegon is a Blackfyre very few if any of the GC would know, and certainly not Jon Connington).

Considering also that the rusty sign washing up works either way. Either the truth (a truly black dragon reappears apparently red) or the appearance (it appears to be a red dragon landing in westeros but the support of the GC may make many think he is truly black).

fAegon can still go either way. At the moment, the evidence IMO most strongly supports him being real, but only barely. It basically comes down to Varys' story having no solid evidence against, holding together logistically and no real reason to be a lie, vs the weak-assed 'affection' of Illyrio and the even weaker-assed theory about Serra being an unknown Blackfyre.

Varys and Illyrio's motivation will be the key, but I've not seen enough to call that in any direction yet. Its still wait and see time...

[LordStoneheart]

Actually, thats a load of rubbish. The Targs do sometimes have a slightly surreal look, but they are not all gorgeously beautiful. They just have an odd colouring that makes them look different, 'unnatural almost' (surreal). The not-so pretty ones are still not so pretty.

No it's not. Grrm has stated that he gave the Targaryen's inhuman beauty to reflect their supernatural affinity for dragons.

Finding a valyrian baby was a slim chance at best, and especially in a place like Flea Bottom. Again, that's why Varys' story just does not make sense. If he found a Valyrian baby in a KL slum... If he knew Gregor was going to beat Aegon unrecognizable. If that didn't work no one would recognize Aegon because he's "just a baby."

Kevan reflected on how it was important to identify Rhaenys. That means after the sack special attention probably was given to the bodies. It was Tywin that presented the bodies. I doubt he'd just assume "a dead baby is a dead baby" as someone else so eloquently put. No. No matter how much someone says it, a baby of 1-2 years doesn't look like every other baby, especially if that baby has distinctive Valyrian coloring.

Varys' story does not make sense.

[RumHam]

No it's not. Grrm has stated that he gave the Targaryen's inhuman beauty to reflect their supernatural affinity for dragons.

Finding a valyrian baby was a slim chance at best, and especially in a place like Flea Bottom. Again, that's why Varys' story just does not make sense. If he found a Valyrian baby in a KL slum... If he knew Gregor was going to beat Aegon unrecognizable. If that didn't work no one would recognize Aegon because he's "just a baby."

Kevan reflected on how it was important to identify Rhaenys. That means after the sack special attention probably was given to the bodies. It was Tywin that presented the bodies. I doubt he'd just assume "a dead baby is a dead baby" as someone else so eloquently put. No. No matter how much someone says it, a baby of 1-2 years doesn't look like every other baby, especially if that baby has distinctive Valyrian coloring.

Varys' story does not make sense.

By Valyrian coloring you mean his eyes? Don't babies' eyes change colors sometimes as they age?

Kevan doesn't actually reflect on how it was important to identify Rhaenys. He says that the dead girl was recognizable as Rhaenys. In fact he he makes it clear nobody thought to question Tywin on the identities of the children:

Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon, and we took him at his word.

Even if the baby hadn't been mashed, the leaders of the rebellion who the children were presented to almost certainly did not know what Aegon looked like. They had been rebelling for most of his short life. Jamie or Pycelle might have noticed, but obviously Jamie wouldn't contradict his father. We don't know if Pycelle was in the room.

For the record I still don't think Young Griff is Aegon, but I don't see the problems with the logistics of the baby swap. Varys is probably too smart to come up with a story that's easily verifiable as false.

Edit: somehow I forgot that by the time he came up with the baby swap story he already knew about Aegon's head being bashed in, so just ignore that last sentence.

[Dragon Roast]

Jamie or Pycelle might have noticed, but obviously Jamie wouldn't contradict his father. We don't know if Pycelle was in the room.

For the record I still don't think Young Griff is Aegon, but I don't see the problems with the logistics of the baby swap. Varys is probably too smart to come up with a story that's easily verifiable as false.

Good points. And we know that Pycell would never contradict Tywin as well.

And the baby did not need Targ features. The mother was a Martell and when Targaryens and Martells had children they sometimes came out with black hair (see Baelor "Breakspear" Targaryen as a case in point). The baby could have had a face and black hair and if Tywin said it was Aegon those present would have agreed or kept silent. Nobody--not even Ned--would have a reason to think otherwise. And I'm sure that Fleabottom had plenty of babies that would pass such a low bar test.

If Varys did this, he was able to pull it off because people see what they want to see.

[LordStoneheart]

By Valyrian coloring you mean his eyes? Don't babies' eyes change colors sometimes as they age?

Kevan doesn't actually reflect on how it was important to identify Rhaenys. He says that the dead girl was recognizable as Rhaenys. In fact he he makes it clear nobody thought to question Tywin on the identities of the children:

Even if the baby hadn't been mashed, the leaders of the rebellion who the children were presented to almost certainly did not know what Aegon looked like. They had been rebelling for most of his short life. Jamie or Pycelle might have noticed, but obviously Jamie wouldn't contradict his father. We don't know if Pycelle was in the room.

For the record I still don't think Young Griff is Aegon, but I don't see the problems with the logistics of the baby swap. Varys is probably too smart to come up with a story that's easily verifiable as false.

Edit: somehow I forgot that by the time he came up with the baby swap story he already knew about Aegon's head being bashed in, so just ignore that last sentence.

The baby swap is very illogical.

1. Both his purple eyes and his silver-gold hair. It's not simply blonde hair; its silver-gold. Besides, Aegon was older than the normal change and the significance of him looking like a Targaryen is important.

2. By reflecting on the fact that Rhaenys was easily recognized as Rhaenys and that no one question Tywin when he said it was Aegon, that shows what was on their minds when the body gift was presented. They had to be sure they were the right babes. If they had just put any bodies down there that could resemble a young girl and boy, it would not have fooled a soul.

3. It only works if Aegon was beaten, which Varys wouldn't have know in advance no matter how great of a conspirator you think he is, and Aerys wouldn't have let it happen as the children and Elia kept Dorne's allegiance. We're talking about a prince. Varys may have a lot of pull in Kl, but that's one thing that would be too great to pull off, actually kidnapping a baby from it mother. Furthermore, Young Griff says that Varys paid for the supposed pisswater boy with a jug of Arbor Gold, which we know is a sign of lies. There was no pisswater prince. There couldn't have been.

I very much wanted to believe a child of Rhaegar's survived, but Varys' story is just not at all believable.

[Hangover of the Morning]

The baby swap is very illogical.

1. Both his purple eyes and his silver-gold hair. It's not simply blonde hair; its silver-gold. Besides, Aegon was older than the normal change and the significance of him looking like a Targaryen is important.

2. By reflecting on the fact that Rhaenys was easily recognized as Rhaenys and that no one question Tywin when he said it was Aegon, that shows what was on their minds when the body gift was presented. They had to be sure they were the right babes. If they had just put any bodies down there that could resemble a young girl and boy, it would not have fooled a soul.

3. It only works if Aegon was beaten, which Varys wouldn't have know in advance no matter how great of a conspirator you think he is, and Aerys wouldn't have let it happen as the children and Elia kept Dorne's allegiance. We're talking about a prince. Varys may have a lot of pull in Kl, but that's one thing that would be too great to pull off, actually kidnapping a baby from it mother. Furthermore, Young Griff says that Varys paid for the supposed pisswater boy with a jug of Arbor Gold, which we know is a sign of lies. There was no pisswater prince. There couldn't have been.

I very much wanted to believe a child of Rhaegar's survived, but Varys' story is just not at all believable.

I believe that Aegon is fake but for the sake of argument I don't think it is impossible to do a swap.

As someone mentioned earlier: the point of the swap is to smuggle away the true heir and keep him alive. If the pretender dies and is believed to be the true heir that is just an added bonus.

Babies do look awfully alike to people who do not have daily contact with them. None of the rebels ever seen Aegon and even Jaime likely only saw him from a distance. There was no reason to presume that a baby in the royal crib is not Aegon so there was no need to start an investigation. So even if pretender!Aegon's head was not smashed into pieces, it was still likely he would have been passed on as the real thing.

[sleath56]

I think the confusion here is from believing that the Targaryens have special looks. The typical Targaryen look is rare in Westeros?, yes; but in Essos? No.

There are tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of descendants of Valyria in Essos. The Targaryens did not stand out from others in the Freehold, and they do not now from the countless other descendents in Essos. It will be very easy for someone like Varys to get ahold of a Valyrian child. Essos and Westeros are not Japan and Europe, and the immigration from either continents is fairly easy.

[corbon]

No it's not. Grrm has stated that he gave the Targaryen's inhuman beauty to reflect their supernatural affinity for dragons.

Thats GRRM referencing their special hair and eye colouring that makes them stand out. But if you check out the actual descriptions, many are not particularly beautiful and some are downright ugly.

Examples:

Rhaenyra - Pampered from an early age, Rhaenyra was a pudgy girl and a stout woman, with a thick waist and a large bosom. She was very proud and stubborn, and there was a certain petulance to her small mouth.

Aegon II - He had only a wispy mustache and a sullen look to his face.

Aenys I - Aenys was tall like his father, but softer, slender, weedy and dreamy. He was pale with lilac eyes. His hair was perfumed, shoulder-length in ringlet curls. He wore a silky "Three Musketeers Style" pointed mustache and beard.

Viserys II - Viserys II was clean-shaven with long hair. He had a prominent nose, bushy eyebrows and a shrewd, calculating look to him.

Aerys I - He was spindly and stooped, with long, straight hair. He had a long, thin face, a long, thin mustache and a long pointed beard.

Daeron - Daeron had sallow skin, sandy brown hair and a blonde beard.

So sure, there are some beautiful Targs, but its not a guaranteed thing that they all have. They are a mixed bag, but their 'special' eye and hair colouring means the hot ones are super-hot, inhumanly, almost supernaturally, beautiful.

Finding a valyrian baby was a slim chance at best, and especially in a place like Flea Bottom. Again, that's why Varys' story just does not make sense. If he found a Valyrian baby in a KL slum... If he knew Gregor was going to beat Aegon unrecognizable. If that didn't work no one would recognize Aegon because he's "just a baby."

I explained this already. Bastards, descendents of bastards, whores bought in from Essos (Lys especially) to cater to certain fantasies, its not going to be that hard for Varys to find someone with the right general look. Even, or perhaps especially, in Flea Bottom.

And the baby being beaten to a pulp simply isn't necessary (but definitely a bonus). Few (surviving) people actually knew baby Aegon (and most who do would be loyalists) so its only necessary to have a baby with the right colouring and general look, not an exact double.

And if it comes to that, Varys could easily have smashed dead fAegon's face in himself, if he felt it necessary.

Kevan reflected on how it was important to identify Rhaenys. That means after the sack special attention probably was given to the bodies. It was Tywin that presented the bodies. I doubt he'd just assume "a dead baby is a dead baby" as someone else so eloquently put. No. No matter how much someone says it, a baby of 1-2 years doesn't look like every other baby, especially if that baby has distinctive Valyrian coloring.

First, Kevin did not reflect onthe importance of identification, just noted that Rahenys and Elia were identified. And that Aegon was not actually identifiable, but Tywin said it was him and that was that.

And while you are right that babies of a year old or more do look different, to people who don't know thaem and have never seen even a picture, the right colouring and in the right time and place is all they need. The actual look isn't important, because given two different but similar looking alive babies, most of them wouldn't know which was which anyway

Varys' story does not make sense.

Only to the close-minded.

The baby swap is very illogical.

1. Both his purple eyes and his silver-gold hair. It's not simply blonde hair; its silver-gold. Besides, Aegon was older than the normal change and the significance of him looking like a Targaryen is important.

Thats explicitly covered, so its disingenuous to claim it as an illogicality

2. By reflecting on the fact that Rhaenys was easily recognized as Rhaenys and that no one question Tywin when he said it was Aegon, that shows what was on their minds when the body gift was presented. They had to be sure they were the right babes. If they had just put any bodies down there that could resemble a young girl and boy, it would not have fooled a soul.

Actually Kevan is explicitly unsure. He realises that the only thing they had was the hair colour and Tywin's claim. Kevan realises that it is entirely possible that he, and everyone else, was fooled.

3. It only works if Aegon was beaten, which Varys wouldn't have know in advance no matter how great of a conspirator you think he is, and Aerys wouldn't have let it happen as the children and Elia kept Dorne's allegiance. We're talking about a prince. Varys may have a lot of pull in Kl, but that's one thing that would be too great to pull off, actually kidnapping a baby from it mother. Furthermore, Young Griff says that Varys paid for the supposed pisswater boy with a jug of Arbor Gold, which we know is a sign of lies. There was no pisswater prince. There couldn't have been.

I've already pointed out the fallacies of the only works if he was beaten claim, in at least two different ways.

As for the Arbor Gold theory, its a very clever piece of work but has absolutely zero evidence to show it stands out from the background noise. This is exactly what I argued in that thread. Unless it is shown to stand out from the background noise (ie an appropriate (including southern nobles only mostly) control sample is tested and shows significantly less deception (using same very generous standards) when no arbor gold is present then the presence of Arbor Gold in a scene has no specific relevance to deception.

And exactly as I pointed out, people will use this untested and frankly unlikely (given the standard for deception used I think its possibly below average to only get 90% or less deceptive scenes) theory to back up their own sides in other theories, which is logically unsound.