Middle East and North Africa 20 - The End of the Beginning in Syria? SPECIAL BONUS RUSSIAN JET CRISIS EDITION

[Mr Fixit]

Good for him those two are in no way connected. Coincidence really.

http://johnpilger.com/articles/assange-the-untold-story-of-an-epic-struggle-for-justice

Well worth reading.

[Free Northman Reborn]

So according to the BBC, Turkey has begun shelling the Kurds in Northern Syria. And in response they are copping criticism from their Nato Big Brother, the USA, who is urging them to stop bombing the Kurds and focus on Isis instead.

Erdogan is now alienating himself from all sides and soon he will hit another Russian unit or plane, and will be on his own when the Russians retaliate.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Yeah, it makes you wonder how the US/Western policy in Syria could fail. :')

It's always good to have reliable partners, who share a common goal.  

[ElizabethB.]

On 12. helmikuuta 2016 at 2:47 PM, Mr Fixit said:

Yeah, evil Ruskies undermining peace whenever they can... at least until you come upon words of one Martti Ahtisaari, former Finnish president and negotiator in multiple international conflict

It's a bit late to claim 'russophobia' all considered. 

Something more up to date from Finland

http://yle.fi/uutiset/officials_see_signs_of_hybrid_warfare_in_migrant_crisis/8672574

 

"Politicians in Finland and the EU have discovered elements of so-called hybrid warfare in the ongoing migrant crisis.

Politicos who say they have spotted signs of mixed-strategy aggression in Russia's actions on its Finnish border are ex-Minister of the Interior Päivi Räsänen and Defence Committee chair Ilkka Kanerva.

Military researcher, officer Antti Paronen from the National Defence University says that the great number of migrants moving through Europe can easily be seen as potential tools in political pressuring tactics and military hostilities.

Steering the flow of mass migration is a typical method in the arsenal of the so-called "grey phase" of hybrid warfare."

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well to me it is simply a version of assymetric warfare. Russia is faced by an overwhelmingly powerful foe in Nato, and the correct strategy in such a situation is to use non-direct means of destabilizing and weakening that foe to try and achieve tactical victories without having to engage in full scale war against a stronger force.

Russia has the advantage of more cohesive strategic leadership and the ultimate threat of their nuclear arsenal to even things out a bit but in the normal course of affairs they need to box smart to gain some advantages against the alliance that is indeed encircling them, whatever the West tries to portray Nato's growth as.

Putin reminds me of Hannibal. The Carthaginian strategist who used his guile and superior tractical skills to fight the Roman Republic to a stalemate for a decade or more despite their vastly superior resources.

The refugee crisis is just one more arrow in Putin's quiver, contributing to his ultimate goal of trying to find and grow the cracks in the unity of his European foes.

I said as much when he first launched his intervention in Syria. It was a rather obvious outflow of his actions at the time.

[Kalbear]

I think you're a bit too quick to credit to planning what is probably dumb luck. The refugee crisis wasn't particularly different before putin and Russia got involved. I am sure he wants to take advantage, but actually thinking agency here is pretty much bullshit clancy novel stuff.

[Mr Fixit]

Well, that's what happens when you pursue a confrontational policy aimed at completely encircling and neutralizing a country, even when that country was your "best buddy" and had the leadership that did whatever was asked of it. West has systematically disregarded the most basic Russian national interests and security concerns going all the way back to Yeltsin years. Instead of pursuing true partnership with a defeated and broken opponent, the US basically took the opportunity to pummel them into the ground. What a surprise that things would turn out the way they did, as many smart and knowledgeable people warned almost 20 years ago.

[ElizabethB.]

Kalbear, go read more clancy then, whatever that is. 

I would not mind to continue discussing about actual facts here, though. 

[ElizabethB.]

39 minutes ago, Mr Fixit said:

Well, that's what happens when you pursue a confrontational policy aimed at completely encircling and neutralizing a country, even when that country was your "best buddy" and had the leadership that did whatever was asked of it. West has systematically disregarded the most basic Russian national interests and security concerns going all the way back to Yeltsin years. Instead of pursuing true partnership with a defeated and broken opponent, the US basically took the opportunity to pummel them into the ground. What a surprise that things would turn out the way they did, as many smart and knowledgeable people warned almost 20 years ago.

Are you talking about the US, EU, Nato or Finland? 

[DireWolfSpirit]

I'm not convinced that Syria couldn't have defeated its rebels by now if it weren't for all this proxy support. Had the country been left to self determine I have to wonder whether the civil war would have burned out by now? The Obama regimes insistence on overthrowing Assad has thus far only served to prolong the suffering for Syrians caught between these meddleing foreign powers. It's Syria's country, taking sides in the fight has accomplished nothing but enableing further bloodshed. During any civil war, using the excuse that a government has killed its own citizens, is a debateable charge for moral authority to tip the scales or attempt to overthrow said leader. By necessity any government fighting a civil war will have to fight and kill its own citizens. Who is right/wrong, victor/defeated, should be for Syrians to determine without foreign powers interfering and prolonging/making worse.

The U.S. has no moral authority to arm Syrian rebels who are likely just as monstrous, if not more, than Assad. The two groups to pick from are ISIS or Assad, to believe there's some white hat rebel group strong enough to displace either group is a U.S. pushed fairy tale. The sooner the U.S. leaves the region alone, the sooner it can stabilize. So what if Syria continues on as a allie of Putin? Syria's been strongly allied to Russia previously for decades, the world will survive a Putin/Assad alliance. But what nefarious terror might a ISIS state seek to export? I hope Assad stays and have zero confidence in what would replace him.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

I'm beginning to think that a large scale Turkish ground invasion is now possible, I'm doubtful that the 100 Turkish soldiers are a complete fabrication as Turkey are claiming, and I think Erdogan is willing to take big risks at this point.

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 hours ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

I'm beginning to think that a large scale Turkish ground invasion is now possible, I'm doubtful that the 100 Turkish soldiers are a complete fabrication as Turkey are claiming, and I think Erdogan is willing to take big risks at this point.

I would not be surprised if this conflict ends with Erdogan's overthrow.

I get a sense that Putin is better able to weather an economic downturn in his home country than Erdogan is. And a large scale war involving Turkish ground troops will surely hit the Turkish economy hard.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I would not be surprised if this conflict ends with Erdogan's overthrow.

I get a sense that Putin is better able to weather an economic downturn in his home country than Erdogan is. And a large scale war involving Turkish ground troops will surely hit the Turkish economy hard.

I wouldn't hold my breath. Putin and Erdogan are quite similar in many ways. Both nationalistic conservative pricks, who force(d) political changes to ensure/increase their power. The difference is, that Erdogan still has some domestic opposition. But that's mainly in the more western orientated big cities like Istanbul. 

Objectively Putin might be a bit safer than Erdogan, but Erdogan should be safe enough unless things go really awry from his perspective. The only way to remove Erdogan might be, if the Syrian Kurds deliver bigger amounts of weapons to their Turkish counterparts, who then in turn start up a new civil war in Turkey. But that really is a doomsday scenario.

[Kalbear]

Kalbear, go read more clancy then, whatever that is. 

I would not mind to continue discussing about actual facts here, though. 

Nothing free Northman has stated is fact.

[cgrnosfe]

I'm beginning to think that a large scale Turkish ground invasion is now possible, I'm doubtful that the 100 Turkish soldiers are a complete fabrication as Turkey are claiming, and I think Erdogan is willing to take big risks at this point.

What does it matter anyway? There are already 3 million ( at least ) Syrians in Turkey and a 5 million more on the way if Russia succeeds in destroying turkish supply lines into Syria, which is imminent.

I can safely claim that Syria has already invaded turkey with its people.

Erdogan is going the wrong way, I would just make the army prepare a safe passage from Syria into Europe. Then watch the Europeans bomb the sh.t out of Assad...

[Free Northman Reborn]

18 minutes ago, cgrnosfe said:

What does it matter anyway? There are already 3 million ( at least ) Syrians in Turkey and a 5 million more on the way if Russia succeeds in destroying turkish supply lines into Syria, which is imminent.

I can safely claim that Syria has already invaded turkey with its people.

Erdogan is going the wrong way, I would just make the army prepare a safe passage from Syria into Europe. Then watch the Europeans bomb the sh.t out of Assad...

Why is Assad being blamed for the refugee crisis? Few people were fleeing Syria during the decades that he ruled the entire country. Only now that civil war broke out and the rebels and ISIS started taking over large parts of Syria did the refugee floodgates open. And none of that was Assad's goal.

I simply think it is ridiculous to think that a Sunni led Syria will be a better place to live than the one in which Assad ruled. Things would undoubtedly be better with Assad in power than if the extremists took over. This moderate opposition myth is getting worn out now.

[ThinkerX]

Ok, wild and wonky thought - nothing more.

Mess in Syria gets resolved by combining Syria and Turkey into a single nation under Turkish control.

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Ok, wild and wonky thought - nothing more.

Mess in Syria gets resolved by combining Syria and Turkey into a single nation under Turkish control.

Better yet, create a Kurdistan incorporating parts of Northern Iraq, Northern Syria and Southern Turkey.

Then create a Shia Western Syria, ruled by Assad.

Then create a Shia southern and eastern Iraq.

Then create a Sunni state incorporating western Iraq and Eastern Syria.

So you end up with Kurdistan, Assad Syria, Shia Iraq, and a new Sunni state straddling parts of Iraq and Syria. Four independent countries that don't have to like each other and can each do their own thing.

This colonial-based amalgamated multi ethnic nation state idea is artificial and the cause of most of the internal bloodshed in the region.

 

[cgrnosfe]

I hope you didn't write that to me. I have no problems with any middle eastern dictators. All the world has seen what happened after saddam, gaddafi and the Egyptian guy. I cannot foresee which Syria would be better but everyone can tell that the current one is not good.

West, turkey and Saudi have failed hard. Real hard. İf this results with Erdogan losing power, it might very well mean the West losing a powerful ally to Russia. Let's watch and see how things turn this summer.

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, cgrnosfe said:

I hope you didn't write that to me. I have no problems with any middle eastern dictators. All the world has seen what happened after saddam, gaddafi and the Egyptian guy. I cannot foresee which Syria would be better but everyone can tell that the current one is not good.

West, turkey and Saudi have failed hard. Real hard. İf this results with Erdogan losing power, it might very well mean the West losing a powerful ally to Russia. Let's watch and see how things turn this summer.

Not at you, just making the general point that the colonial era artificial Middle Eastern states should not have endured into the modern age.