Ashara Dayne's (sinister) role in Robert's Rebellion

[Rob Storm]

2 hours ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

 

If Ashara revealed the plans to Ned I'm guessing she received a promise from Ned that he would not harm Arthur.  And here her motivation would be similar, guilt that her friends the Starks had been torn apart by Rhaegar's ambitions, and wanting to make amends as she could.  

 

This line stuck out to me.  I don't think I support this theory but him promising Ashara that he would not harm Arthur could loosely be linked to the quote that "He would have died if not for Howland Reed"

Perhaps Ned swore not to harm Arthur but found a loophole because Howland did the deed himself.

[Ser Leftwich]

3 hours ago, Hangover of the Morning said:

Excellent counter-points. Thank you. You are right that Brandon must have fond out about the kidnapping mere days later so it's unlikely that the party would have send out a letter only after they reached Dorne. 

I had a similar thought.

Ashara would have either had to know about some plan to take Lyanna before the fact and been able to arrange to have Brandon told OR Ashara would have to have been in the Riverlands/Harrenhal herself to tell Brandon in person.

[sweetsunray]

4 hours ago, Anath said:

Lyanna was taken from the Riverlands. Brandon was at the Riverlands. Starfall is far away. Unless Ashara was travelling with the party, there's no way that she got to know before Brandon. Or unless Rhaegar and the rest of them were actually stupid enough to explain it all in a long letter to Starfall, at which point we get to the predicament of Ashara being able to send a raven to find Brandon who was actually travelling and not staying in a castle. Or a man who'd have to go all the way from Starfall to the Riverlands.

Besides, why would Ashara have either the task to write the letter (it must be an important one, given the identity of everyone concerned) or the chance to alter it? Was she a part of Rhaegar's inner circle? We have no hints to that. Again, that's if they even got together before Brandon got to know which I find highly improbable.

It all depends on when Ashara left for Starfall... before or after Aegon was born? before or after Rhaegar left for the RL? If Ashara was still at Dragonstone as lady in waiting with Elia until around the time Rhaegar left for the RL, then she might have known even what he was up, and alerted Brndon even from Dragonstone.

[kimim]

19 hours ago, Hangover of the Morning said:

Meanwhile Rhaegar decided to run away with (or kidnap) Lyanna Stark with the help of Ashara’s brother. The party either took shelter at Starfall or were in some way in contact with Ashara via Arthur. Ashara was either personally charged with sending a letter informing Brandon or Rickard that Lyanna is safe or more likely had a chance to alter it. Alternatively, Rhaegar and co decided not to send anything and Ashara went behind their backs and informed Brandon of the “kidnaping”.

Basically, Ashara took the opportunity to deliberately fed Brandon false information regarding his sister been kidnapped (or even murdered) by Rhaegar, who’s hiding in the Red Keep.

Westeros is huge, and there are no cell phones. Rhaegar, Arthur, Lyanna disappeared from the Riverlands. It would take them weeks to get to Starfall, and days after that for Ashara to send a raven to Brandon, but we know that Brandon acted almost immediately, so fast that he delayed his wedding to Cat in order to rush to KL. Timewise, not making sense for me.

EDIT: I guess you could say that Rhaegar and Arthur had been planning the disappearance for weeks, and Rhaegar or Arthur asked Ashara to send a letter to Brandon weeks before the disappearance...but then, why wouldn't Lyanna or Rhaegar or Arthur send such a letter? Were they hoping that Ashara would be able to calm Brandon the way Lyanna wouldn't? That makes no sense.

 

[Hangover of the Morning]

4 minutes ago, kimim said:

Westeros is huge, and there are no cell phones. Rhaegar, Arthur, Lyanna disappeared from the Riverlands. It would take them weeks to get to Starfall, and days after that for Ashara to send a raven to Brandon, but we know that Brandon acted almost immediately, so fast that he delayed his wedding to Cat in order to rush to KL. Timewise, not making sense for me.

EDIT: I guess you could say that Rhaegar and Arthur had been planning the disappearance for weeks, and Rhaegar or Arthur asked Ashara to send a letter to Brandon weeks before the disappearance...but then, why wouldn't Lyanna or Rhaegar or Arthur send such a letter? Were they hoping that Ashara would be able to calm Brandon the way Lyanna wouldn't? That makes no sense.

 

@Anath has already pointed that out and I agree, it's a big dent in the theory. I forgot that Brandon had found out almost instantly. 

[kimim]

1 minute ago, Hangover of the Morning said:

@Anath has already pointed that out and I agree, it's a big dent in the theory. I forgot that Brandon had found out almost instantly. 

lol with apologies! Dangers of not reading through.

[Ser Leftwich]

This topic just gave me two thoughts about this bigger picture of Lyanna, Brandon, et al.

Someone proposed a theory that Ned figured out the location of ToJ from a combination of information from Ashara and Ethan Glover (who was likely in a cell in KL and then went with Ned to the ToJ). I don't recall who, but it was sound. One piece of info from Ashara and one from Ethan, Ned puts two and two together. Ashara still has agency and can feel guilty.

But more importantly, when and where did Brandon join up with the companions (Glover, Royce, Arryn, and Mallister) he went to KL with? They were not mentioned to have been with him at the duel at Riverrun, but why would Edmure serve as Brandon's squire if Ethan, Brandon's squire, was there? Why were none of the others mentioned? (This is not really good evidence, since it is just a lack of mentioning them, which is not confirmation of their absence.)

This leave opens that they were elsewhere in the Riverlands, but not with Rickard. Perhaps, partying at Harrenhal, only half-watching Lyanna?

The same problem arises, how do we learn about these events in story?

[Anath]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

It all depends on when Ashara left for Starfall... before or after Aegon was born? before or after Rhaegar left for the RL? If Ashara was still at Dragonstone as lady in waiting with Elia until around the time Rhaegar left for the RL, then she might have known even what he was up, and alerted Brndon even from Dragonstone.

Yes but it also depends on what Ashara knew. There are no hints that she was in Rhaegar's confidences. I doubt Arthur would go and spill Rhaegar's plans to her. The only one she could know it from was Elia. That means that 1) Ashara was Elia's close friend and confidant, something that we still don't know; 2) Elia herself had to be aware of Rhaegar's plans which is still disputed; 3) Ashara needed to have a daily touch with Rhaegar's party since he didn't leave for Harrenhall. He just underwent a journey which ended about there. There was almost no way for her to know where he'd be at any given day; 4) Ashara needed to have a daily touch with Brandon since, like Rhaegar, he was also on the way and not stationed in any given place; 5) Brandon totally believed Ashara, he was convinced that they were still on good terms and she had only his best interests in mind and didn't see even one of Lyanna's own companions who might have told him the truth.

OR: 1) still stands; 2) the first thing Rhaegar did after the abduction/elopement was notify Elia; 3) Ashara had the means in Dragonstone to circumvent Elia's commands; 4) and 5) still stand.

If those 5 premises are fulfilled, she might have been in position to fill Bradon in with a lie. But it sounds quite implausible to me. I'd rather think it was Elia's spite that started the whole sorry mess. At least she had more chances to be actually told what Rhaegar was up to by Rhaegar himself.

[The Knight of Night]

Awesome write up...

Given Baelish's penchant for pitting sides against one another for his own gain, I can't help but feel that he caused this entire series of events to pay back Brandon Stark and keep him from marrying Cat. Wouldn't be surprised a bit to find that he manipulated Ashara... 

[sweetsunray]

22 minutes ago, Anath said:

Yes but it also depends on what Ashara knew. There are no hints that she was in Rhaegar's confidences. I doubt Arthur would go and spill Rhaegar's plans to her. The only one she could know it from was Elia. That means that 1) Ashara was Elia's close friend and confidant, something that we still don't know; 2) Elia herself had to be aware of Rhaegar's plans which is still disputed; 3) Ashara needed to have a daily touch with Rhaegar's party since he didn't leave for Harrenhall. He just underwent a journey which ended about there. There was almost no way for her to know where he'd be at any given day; 4) Ashara needed to have a daily touch with Brandon since, like Rhaegar, he was also on the way and not stationed in any given place; 5) Brandon totally believed Ashara, he was convinced that they were still on good terms and she had only his best interests in mind and didn't see even one of Lyanna's own companions who might have told him the truth.

OR: 1) still stands; 2) the first thing Rhaegar did after the abduction/elopement was notify Elia; 3) Ashara had the means in Dragonstone to circumvent Elia's commands; 4) and 5) still stand.

If those 5 premises are fulfilled, she might have been in position to fill Bradon in with a lie. But it sounds quite implausible to me. I'd rather think it was Elia's spite that started the whole sorry mess. At least she had more chances to be actually told what Rhaegar was up to by Rhaegar himself.

She doesn't need to be in Rhaegar's confidence imo, nor does Arthur need to spill his plans. Nor is there any requirement that Elia told her. Ladies in waiting gossip and have far more freedom in moving around without having servants scurrying after them. They befrirend the cook in order to get lemon cakes, etc. And someone always talks. Secrets are hard to keep in a castle, let alone rumors.

Why was Brandon in the RL? For his wedding to Cat. She does not need to be in contact with him on a daily basis. All she needs to do is dispatch a message from Dragonstone to RR for Brandon.

[aryagonnakill#2]

The problem with this theory is that the whole premise that someone fed Brandon false information is completely unfounded.  Lyanna would not have been alone when Rhaegar came upon her, and Harrenhall is not all that far from Riverrun.  For anyone else to get the info first and then get false info to Brandon before someone in Lyannas party or someone from Harrenhall sent a raven to Riverrun just seems illogical bordering on impossible.  Simply put a raven from Harrenhall beats any other raven to Riverrun.

[Arrow of the Morning]

20 hours ago, Hangover of the Morning said:

Ashara Dayne's role in the books

Let's just step back from any speculations and wild crackpot theories and think what has Ashara's character added to the story so far.

• Smokescreen for R + L = J: both Neds explicitly state that Wylla is Jon's mother but most smart, yet casual readers would identify Wylla as the smokescreen, and Ashara as the real culprit, thus missing the double bluff.
• Adds a layer of tragedy to the Robert’s Rebellion and show that there are war casualties outside of the battlefield
• Brings House Dayne to the forefront of our minds: the honourable and deadly Sword of the Morning definitely got our attention and we all love him but give him a smoking hot sister who’s rumoured to have a fling with Ned Stark and who died tragically, and our brains are guaranteed to lit a light bulb every time House Dayne is mentioned in the novels. 
• A homage to the real QoLaB of George's youth, i.e. Elizabeth Taylor: this is a meta reason and technically doesn’t add anything to the story but I am throwing it in nonetheless

We can probably add a few more reason but all they have in common is that they don't exactly paint Ashara as a full fleshed character but rather a symbol, a passive plot point with no agenda of her own. I personally think that it could just be it and there not need to be any more to her. Not every character has to affect the story significantly and GRRM even emphasized it by revealing very little about her personality. 

Good job doing assembling the (scarce) evidences and the possible scenarios.

About George's goal and Ashara 's personality.

1) For sure she was used as a Red Herring about Jon's parentage since the first book, some readers defend the theory that she is Jon's mother, but may be George wanted to show something more about R+L=J. Some speculate that Brandon impregnated Ashara and Ned was willing to marry her to cover up his brother and give a name for his brother's bastard (something many would not do), he would sacrifice his personal honor to protect his brother and give a better future for his niece. If it is reveled in the book, it give even more evidence for the hypotheses that Ned claimed Jon as his son to cover Lyanna.

2) Showing that war can affects even the ones who do not carry a sword is very possible, a good amount of the pages of ASOIAF show the results of the war.

3) Also agree, Arthur Dayne alone already gives a huge spotlight for House Dayne, but the rumors about the romance between Ashara and Ned enhance this exposition.

4) I also agree that George writing crafted Ashara inspired by Elizabeth Taylor and it is because she starred a movie adaptation of Ivanhoe in the role of Rebecca of York. The book was a huge inspiration for George craft ASOIAF: tournaments, heraldry, the pageantry, mystery Knights and Queens of Love and Beauty. Quoting him:

Quote

Martin was first turned on to Ivanhoe by the 1952 MGM movie starring Robert Taylor, George Sanders and a young Elizabeth Taylor. "I think it was Elizabeth Taylor at the peak of her...," his voice tails off before he clarifies. "She was the most beautiful woman in the world. I think I was nine years old when I saw that movie. How could you not fall in love with her? But the jousting and the pageantry of it made me love that story. Later, in high school, I did read that book. For a modern reader, it's a little tough to get through. The prose is very Victorian and thick but if you fight your way through it, the story is there. It has everything the movie has and more – the heraldry and jousting and the insight into the times. It was an influence in that sense."

 So I think Ashara is, in some way, inspired by Rebecca. In the book, she is a young and astoundingly beautiful Jewish woman, she is loyal, generous, courageous, intelligent and many other qualities. Also in the book:

Spoiler

Rebecca is kidnap by a knight that was in love with her, put in a tower and when the knight tries to take her by force she threats to jump from the tower, stopping the knight. Similarities?

And Rebecca is an archetype present in the English literature in the 19 century known as "La Belle Juive" (The Beautiful Jewess). In the epoch, while Jewish men were represent  almost ever in a negative way the Jewish women were idealized being describing as beautiful and with many good personality traits. More here

May be George wants not just make a character inspired by his favorite actress, but also plays with this archetype. There is no Jew in Westeros, but there is a place where its inhabitants are ill regarded and suffer many types of prejudice in the Seven Kingdoms: Dorne. But, knowing Martin, if she wants to depict it he will probably subvert the trope and his "Belle Juive" wont be so perfect as Rebecca, for example.

About the theory that she send a letter to Brandon talking about Lyanna kidnap, well, I don't buy it.

- Brandon was in his way to Riverrun, and was informed while passing through the Riverlands.

- Brandon running to King's Landing believing Rhaegar was there with Lyanna don't require any fancy explanation. Rhaegar lived in Dragonstone and had a tempestuous relationship with Aerys, we know that. But, did Brandon knew it? Was he aware of that? May be he didn't knew that. And Rhaegar had six men at his side, in some point the group divided and he went south with Lyanna and the Kingsguard and the other went to King's Landing. May be Brandon tracked the wrong group.

- We don't know Ashara as a character and we don't know her personality to speculate if she would do something like that.

[house of dayne]

12 hours ago, Hangover of the Morning said:

Thank you for reading and commenting. Is it the idea of Brandon sleeping with Ashara that you don't like? 

No...i have a problem with R+L=J...i have too many suspicions that the birth of jon snow is much more complex...i dont have a problem with the role you assigned ashara though...

[Hangover of the Morning]

2 hours ago, Arrow of the Morning said:

Good job doing assembling the (scarce) evidences and the possible scenarios.

About George's goal and Ashara 's personality.

1) For sure she was used as a Red Herring about Jon's parentage since the first book, some readers defend the theory that she is Jon's mother, but may be George wanted to show something more about R+L=J. Some speculate that Brandon impregnated Ashara and Ned was willing to marry her to cover up his brother and give a name for his brother's bastard (something many would not do), he would sacrifice his personal honor to protect his brother and give a better future for his niece. If it is reveled in the book, it give even more evidence for the hypotheses that Ned claimed Jon as his son to cover Lyanna.

2) Showing that war can affects even the ones who do not carry a sword is very possible, a good amount of the pages of ASOIAF show the results of the war.

3) Also agree, Arthur Dayne alone already gives a huge spotlight for House Dayne, but the rumors about the romance between Ashara and Ned enhance this exposition.

4) I also agree that George writing crafted Ashara inspired by Elizabeth Taylor and it is because she starred a movie adaptation of Ivanhoe in the role of Rebecca of York. The book was a huge inspiration for George craft ASOIAF: tournaments, heraldry, the pageantry, mystery Knights and Queens of Love and Beauty. Quoting him:

 So I think Ashara is, in some way, inspired by Rebecca. In the book, she is a young and astoundingly beautiful Jewish woman, she is loyal, generous, courageous, intelligent and many other qualities. Also in the book:

  Reveal hidden contents

Rebecca is kidnap by a knight that was in love with her, put in a tower and when the knight tries to take her by force she threats to jump from the tower, stopping the knight. Similarities?

And Rebecca is an archetype present in the English literature in the 19 century known as "La Belle Juive" (The Beautiful Jewess). In the epoch, while Jewish men were represent  almost ever in a negative way the Jewish women were idealized being describing as beautiful and with many good personality traits. More here

May be George wants not just make a character inspired by his favorite actress, but also plays with this archetype. There is no Jew in Westeros, but there is a place where its inhabitants are ill regarded and suffer many types of prejudice in the Seven Kingdoms: Dorne. But, knowing Martin, if she wants to depict it he will probably subvert the trope and his "Belle Juive" wont be so perfect as Rebecca, for example.

About the theory that she send a letter to Brandon talking about Lyanna kidnap, well, I don't buy it.

- Brandon was in his way to Riverrun, and was informed while passing through the Riverlands.

- Brandon running to King's Landing believing Rhaegar was there with Lyanna don't require any fancy explanation. Rhaegar lived in Dragonstone and had a tempestuous relationship with Aerys, we know that. But, did Brandon knew it? Was he aware of that? May be he didn't knew that. And Rhaegar had six men at his side, in some point the group divided and he went south with Lyanna and the Kingsguard and the other went to King's Landing. May be Brandon tracked the wrong group.

- We don't know Ashara as a character and we don't know her personality to speculate if she would do something like that.

Great analysis. I have never picked up on the similarities between Ivanhoe and ASoIaF. I always liked Rebecca's character much more than Lady Rowena, who was just this typical perfect damsel in distress type of female character. I have never seen the film adaptation, though. 

[Beautiful Bloody Sword]

5 hours ago, The Knight of Night said:

 

Very well formulated and presented, but I don't agree, and I don't want to honestly. I'm all for lies and deceit for the greater good, but detest those done for ill. I think that Ashara and Ned did have a thing, and Brandon's death certainly fucked that up. If, like you believe, it was really Brandon, then why not have Edric 'Ned' named Brandon or Brynden? Either way, I don't buy her suicide, I think she's still alive. There were some deeply conspiratorial plans playing out, and she and her house were in the thick of it, and that's why they all mysteriously 'died' or dissappeared following RR, and they took their house words, family tree, and Darkstar's parents with them.

[Beautiful Bloody Sword]

5 hours ago, The Knight of Night said:

Awesome write up...

Given Baelish's penchant for pitting sides against one another for his own gain, I can't help but feel that he caused this entire series of events to pay back Brandon Stark and keep him from marrying Cat. Wouldn't be surprised a bit to find that he manipulated Ashara... 

I thought the same thing, minus Ashara's involvement. I wouldn't be surprised if Littlefinger had Lysa do his dirty work for him, as we've seen before, and write the letter or at least have it sent for him. She was in close proximity to him, tending him while he recuperated from his injuries from the duel with Brandon. It certainly smells of mint leaves.

[dornishdame]

On 2/15/2016 at 10:22 PM, Hangover of the Morning said:

Prerequisites

This theory operates under the following four premises. If any of these go deeply against your conviction, then you will probably not like my conclusions. You've been warned J 

• R + L = J (no baby swaps)
• Ashara Dayne is dead: she committed suicide by jumping from the Palestone Sword 
• Ashara has slept (most likely willingly) and have been impregnated by Brandon Stark at the Tourney at Harrenhal 
• Ashara's child was born stillborn or died soon after (there's some wiggle room for the baby to be Allyria but it doesn't add or detract anything from the theory and just muddles the scene so I'm leaving it out)

I have to say, I agree with all four of these (though I tend towards Allyria possibly being Brandon's daughter - I think GRRM said in an SSM that Brandon had died before fathering a son....leaving open the possibility that he fathered a daughter, much in the same way that saying the male Blackfyre line was died out leaves open the possibility that the female line did not die out). 

While I tend to think that Ashara suffered from post-natal depression, and that her suicide after learning of Arthur's death was essentially a final straw for her, I do think that you put forward an interesting and extremely well thought out theory. With so many gaps in what happened during Robert's Rebellion and having to seriously sift through the bias for the information we do have, we have to work on a combination of instinct and evidence. So much of Barristan's recollection of Ashara, for example, is of a maiden in need of 'saving' and of her beauty. In a way, it makes me think of how Robert viewed Lyanna - and Ned's comment below from Thrones:

"The talk is you and the queen had angry words last night."

The mirth curdled on Robert's face. "The woman tried to forbid me to fight in the melee. She's sulking in the castle now, damn her. Your sister would never have shamed me like that."

"You never knew Lyanna as I did, Robert," Ned told him. "You saw her beauty, but not the iron underneath. She would have told you that you have no business in the melee." (Eddard VII in Thrones)

I wonder what you think of Gerold Hightower - do you think that Ashara told him where Arthur (and, by extension, Rhaegar) could be found? We know that Rhaegar returned from the south alone, after Gerold Hightower had been sent after him by Aerys. Do you think Gerold could have turned up at Starfall, knowing how close Arthur and Rhaegar were, in the hope that Arthur's kin could help him find them? Or, do you think that Ashara was perhaps summoned to court, privately rather than publicly, to account for her brother's whereabouts? Of these two I tend towards the former, given that Aerys had a tendency towards the end to retain hostages, but there could be other explanations.  

[Hangover of the Morning]

5 minutes ago, dornishdame said:

I have to say, I agree with all four of these (though I tend towards Allyria possibly being Brandon's daughter - I think GRRM said in an SSM that Brandon had died before fathering a son....leaving open the possibility that he fathered a daughter, much in the same way that saying the male Blackfyre line was died out leaves open the possibility that the female line did not die out). 

While I tend to think that Ashara suffered from post-natal depression, and that her suicide after learning of Arthur's death was essentially a final straw for her, I do think that you put forward an interesting and extremely well thought out theory. With so many gaps in what happened during Robert's Rebellion and having to seriously sift through the bias for the information we do have, we have to work on a combination of instinct and evidence. So much of Barristan's recollection of Ashara, for example, is of a maiden in need of 'saving' and of her beauty. In a way, it makes me think of how Robert viewed Lyanna - and Ned's comment below from Thrones:

"The talk is you and the queen had angry words last night."

The mirth curdled on Robert's face. "The woman tried to forbid me to fight in the melee. She's sulking in the castle now, damn her. Your sister would never have shamed me like that."

"You never knew Lyanna as I did, Robert," Ned told him. "You saw her beauty, but not the iron underneath. She would have told you that you have no business in the melee." (Eddard VII in Thrones)

I wonder what you think of Gerold Hightower - do you think that Ashara told him where Arthur (and, by extension, Rhaegar) could be found? We know that Rhaegar returned from the south alone, after Gerold Hightower had been sent after him by Aerys. Do you think Gerold could have turned up at Starfall, knowing how close Arthur and Rhaegar were, in the hope that Arthur's kin could help him find them? Or, do you think that Ashara was perhaps summoned to court, privately rather than publicly, to account for her brother's whereabouts? Of these two I tend towards the former, given that Aerys had a tendency towards the end to retain hostages, but there could be other explanations.  

Thanks a lot for reading. I am definitely starting to see sever flaws in my thinking and holes in the theory :-), which is great, because that't the whole point why I put it out there to see, if my ideas, hold water under the scrutiny of other readers. 

Allyria as daughter of Brandon and Ashara is quite tempting, given the SSM and the big age gap between Allyria and the rest of her siblings. However, I just can't shake the feeling that Ashara would have been much less likely to commit suicide, if she had a living child. Obviously, she wouldn't be the first mother who decided to kill herself and leave her kids behind but it makes it slightly less believable. And let's face it I'm a bit weary of hidden bastards and secret identities, so I'd be quite happy if Allyria was exactly who she claims to be. I don't expect her to be anything more than a footnote in the story anyways. 

While I can envision quite a few scenarios as to who told Ned or how did he find out about Tower of Joy, Gerold Hightower is another can of worm. I think your idea about him heading to Starfall is pretty solid and better than anything else we can come up with given the lack of information in the books. 

Neither Barristan's nor Jaime's POV give us much insight into what was happening at court after Lyanna's abduction. I had the impression that Aerys was as much in the dark as the rest of the kingdom regarding Rhaegar's actions but it's possible that he or someone else in the Red Keep maintained contact or had at least a general idea where the Prince and his companions might have headed and why. 

I always find it surprising that Rhaegar's party was never spotted on the way, wether they travelled to Dorne on horses or via a ship. Even if they were able to pass incognito at the moment, you'd think that people would recognise them in retrospect and brag about how the Prince or the Sword of the Morning passed their Inn or bough ale from them. 

Targaryen features are hard to hide and Arthur was also one of  the most recognisable faces of his time, not to mention that he carried Dawn, a sword size of a small teenagers, that you can't simply hide under your cloak. Maybe they only travelled by night and got Oswell to do all the food shopping :-)

[sweetsunray]

27 minutes ago, Hangover of the Morning said:

Thanks a lot for reading. I am definitely starting to see sever flaws in my thinking and holes in the theory :-), which is great, because that't the whole point why I put it out there to see, if my ideas, hold water under the scrutiny of other readers. 

Allyria as daughter of Brandon and Ashara is quite tempting, given the SSM and the big age gap between Allyria and the rest of her siblings. However, I just can't shake the feeling that Ashara would have been much less likely to commit suicide, if she had a living child. Obviously, she wouldn't be the first mother who decided to kill herself and leave her kids behind but it makes it slightly less believable. And let's face it I'm a bit weary of hidden bastards and secret identities, so I'd be quite happy if Allyria was exactly who she claims to be. I don't expect her to be anything more than a footnote in the story anyways. 

While I can envision quite a few scenarios as to who told Ned or how did he find out about Tower of Joy, Gerold Hightower is another can of worm. I think your idea about him heading to Starfall is pretty solid and better than anything else we can come up with given the lack of information in the books. 

Neither Barristan's nor Jaime's POV give us much insight into what was happening at court after Lyanna's abduction. I had the impression that Aerys was as much in the dark as the rest of the kingdom regarding Rhaegar's actions but it's possible that he or someone else in the Red Keep maintained contact or had at least a general idea where the Prince and his companions might have headed and why. 

I always find it surprising that Rhaegar's party was never spotted on the way, wether they travelled to Dorne on horses or via a ship. Even if they were able to pass incognito at the moment, you'd think that people would recognise them in retrospect and brag about how the Prince or the Sword of the Morning passed their Inn or bough ale from them. 

Targaryen features are hard to hide and Arthur was also one of  the most recognisable faces of his time, not to mention that he carried Dawn, a sword size of a small teenagers, that you can't simply hide under your cloak. Maybe they only travelled by night and got Oswell to do all the food shopping :-)

Well, Egg traveled incognito and it's very likely that Maynard Plumm was actually BR in The Mystery Knight. Egg was young still and as youngest less known,but BR is supposedly better known and even has this very identifiable wine blotch on his face. But a different name, different clothes that do not scream royalty and a dye of the hair can do wonders. People tend to recognize someone by the attributes and behavior according to their station and position - especially if they don't know him or her personally, let alone ever saw the face. Westeros has no mags, no E!, no tele, only word of mouth to go by.  

[Hangover of the Morning]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

Well, Egg traveled incognito and it's very likely that Maynard Plumm was actually BR in The Mystery Knight. Egg was young still and as youngest less known,but BR is supposedly better known and even has this very identifiable wine blotch on his face. But a different name, different clothes that do not scream royalty and a dye of the hair can do wonders. People tend to recognize someone by the attributes and behavior according to their station and position - especially if they don't know him or her personally, let alone ever saw the face. Westeros has no mags, no E!, no tele, only word of mouth to go by.  

I agree but it's much easier for one person to hide than a whole company. A lonely Targaryen looking guy my fly under the radar if he puts his hood up but he's immediately much more suspicious if he's in a company of knights (even if they are pretending not to be too) and northern looking girl.

Rhaegar was missing for many months, by that time the tale of Lyanna's abduction and the disappearance of the prince and his Kingsguard would have reached most places. If someone saw a suspicious company weeks/moths before that but didn't think too much of it at that time, they were bound to remember when they hear about the northern girl missing. If anything I'd expect tons of people making false claims of sighting the prince.